Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Farkran]

Hello everyone, i'm the replacement of asriel. I have only skimmed the thread and the mod ISO so far. By VC 1.7 i noticed that i am consensus scumread (Fight-2) and Hectic is consensus townread (Spare-1). Does anyone want to provide a recap as to why the gamestate is like it is? I will reread anyways, but having a different POV based review would be helpful.

[Farkran]

Caught up to page 10. I see that no one wants to give me a recap. I almost have a readlist ready though, and i have my thoughts about this gamestate.

Unrelated to my reads though, i think Sparing is the route favoring scum mostly, and i have noticed several players agreeing me there. So, why are we up to Spare-1 but only Fight-2? This looks inconsistent to me, or did anything happen in the latest 6 pages?

Besides, my highest scumread is currently Sujimichi. I find it odd that no one is fighting there, will provide details once i am up to date.

[Farkran]

TOWN
Nacho
Amrun
Chara
Alimidia
Replica
Hectic
Chemist
--- TRUE NULL LINE ---
SherlockHolmes
Psyche
Sujimichi
SCUM

I noticed the Amrun vs Suji part around page 6. I am likely hard-siding with Amrun there, this looks like her town meta. Might suffer from agreement bias, but i'll place this among my townreads for today. For the same reason i am inclined to townread Chara too. I mean, scumleaning/pressuring my pred is definitely not a bad sign, pre-replacement, but it's a lurker slot. There are no damning scumtells, and reconsideration is usually a town trait. Read the sujimichi part as a follow up to this.

Replica's suggestion in favor of sparing early, lynching later is... wrong, imo. We pretty much should NEVER spare, in my opinion. How does Spare benefit the town over playing this like a mountainous + FN? If Spare guaranteed a flip, or a significant bonus in endgame, it would be ok. But it does neither, unless we spare exactly 4 town, which i think is unlikely. However, Replica put faith into his argument, it is not scum-indicative of him. I townlean him, i just think we should not follow his strategy as we have nothing to gain from it. FTR i'm referring to 273 and follow-ups.

Probably some extent of agreement bias towards alimidia, but posts 287+ are well made. There is solvability and what looks like sane town paranoia in his words.

I am scumleaning on Billy/Sujimichi slot. I have meta with both, and both are usually much more proactive as town. Sujimichi has redeemable qualities, but right now he seems to be tunneling where he shouldn't be. I have read my pred's ISO, and it's a badly lurk-spotted ISO - i would also be inclined to fight there, but i don't consider it damning enough to create a hard tunnel on me based on my introduction. The post-replacement push in 395 feels forced, like he wants to consolidate a mislynch before people have time to reconsider. Being close to the deadline might validate this theory.

Pine is particularly scummy from my POV - i have played with both town! and scum!pine, he's been lurking in both versions but usually the scum one is more like, trying to busywork at least during the initial stages of the game. Didn't see any Psyche attempt to subvert that, which would be consistent with the current gamestate if he's scum. No need to spice things up when he's not voted by anyone.

Other reads are weaker. I have lots more to say, but i will be able to do so only later when i get back home. A lot of posts and interactions are complex and i will need to reread them, but for the time being,

HURT: sujimichi although i have some reservations over the fact that Amrun, Chara and Nacho are on the same wagons for Spare and Fight. I would like to hear more about what brought you to sheep each other with that regard.

[Farkran]

we're all in your townreads. why do you have reservations about seeing us vote together?
i believe i explained the reasons for both of my votes in the post you asked for upon replacing in, too.

I know a lot of people don't like to play d1 associatives, but i do. And i am wary when people who haven't established a clear townbloc are found voting together by coincidence. In this game specifically, where we have double VC per player, i think it's worth noting it. At this point that's just what it is though, a note. I will delve deeper into your interactions and progression to see if it makes sense.

[Farkran]

@Farkran:

Why am I sheeping anyone? You clearly read where I originated the Suji “wagon,” such that it is, so why ask me such a meaningless question?

Sheep is perhaps a wrong term to use in that context. I meant to say voting together, generally speaking, not necessarily making the distinction between independent thought vs sheeping. I will need to read your history again though.

While we are at it, @you three (chara, amrun, nacho), why do you find my slot scummy besides lurking?

[Farkran]

Since i'm re-reading your ISO first, Amrun... on my first readthrough, all your posts sound like town, and that is why you have been placed that high in my readlist. On a second read, though, it seems that you are lacking a significant amount of internal consistency in your posts and i'd like to learn why.

Oh, and, I absolute agree that sparing only is a stupid strat that I won’t be participating in.

HEAL: Hectic

The only thing I’m happy healing atm.

This is one of the issues i have been talking about in my (second) introductory post. I also had the same first impression when reading the setup: sparing is scumsided. And i liked you because of that. But then you spare hectic and you seem to have no issues with it even when i highlighted that today's result seem closer to a spare than it is to a fight. Why?

HURT: Pine

I prefer my plan, but I will do this is there is not majority agreement.

HURT: Asriel


@Chara: why aren’t YOU pressuring Asriel as well if you agree?

But I do too, and I did say earlier I feel Asriel is off.

I simply didn’t want to let up on Sujimichi but his more recent contributions have definitely been better.

Let’s consolidate and choo choo.

HURT: Asriel Dreemurr

That was not a good response.

You say you are the primary pusher against sujimichi, and i did read your 1v1, placing you in the top slots of my readlist mainly because of that. In this re-read i compared the VCs to interactions, and once again i notice that you are having no issues with your primary scumread IMMEDIATELY sheeping you on a lurker slot that is now consensus scumread. I mean, sujimichi was voting the other lurker just ONE post prior to you voting my pred, then TEN posts later, in the same page, Sujimichi switch his vote on the other lurker - whose wagon was gaining traction - and you don't even question it? What makes you content with compromising with your strongest scumread, on a lurker slot no less?

[Farkran]

We are ~4 days to deadline now. Game might have been slow, but right now, with replacement extensions, we have plenty of time to avoid unnecessary no-flip sparing. I mean, even a lynch on my slot is better than sparing, but first i'd like to understand why you have been compromising on my pred as a lurker rather than lurker-pine, or sujimichi. I don't like my pred ISO too, but it's like 10 posts, and after learning my role PM my POV requires me to be wary of people opportunistically joining my wagon. Sujimichi was the vote that struck me most, and i am wondering why it didn't strike you (@amrun) as well.

[Farkran]

Hi suji! Besides scumreading you, i am happy to play with you again!

I'd like you to answer my 401 wrt your part. What reason did you have to scumread Farkran, rather than Asriel? Why is asking for a recap scummy in your eyes?

Pedit: i don't recall hectic claiming FN. I am fairly sure he claimed NOT being FN. Am i wrong?

[Farkran]

Besides, assuming we can spare the FN in day 2, what's to gain? The FN is a unique role in an open setup, he is already unlynchable. Factional night kill is still active after New Home is reached, if i read the setup correctly, so he will just be killed asap. Unless i am missing something, the 1-spare bonus is worthless.

[Farkran]

I wanted to wait until I get home but the earlier this gets nipped the better.

Farkran-you really, REALLY need to do the math on sparing strategies before going on a posting spree about how it's mechanically bad. As far as I can tell, your opposition to it is that it seems mathematically and not coming from pragmatic concerns (How I'd classify Nacho/Amrun)

The win rate for playing it mountainous is upperbounded by 11:2's known win rate of 39%. The win rate for 3/4 spares are in the low 40s. I didn't calc 2 spares and 1 spare is awful. I back of the envelope did it on a napkin at lunch but I'll draw it up again if I have to.

My problem with sparing is that giving up the info a flip would provide is not worth the bonuses obtained after sparing any amount of people, mostly because said bonuses are not worth... anything, to be fair. Running plain math, based on random results, will probably produce ~balanced results. However, if provided with information, people will lynch based on premises, assumptions, deductions, analysis - sparing postpones most of this content to a later time, which means any decision to spare made before that is no better than random, and the reward is next to nothing. I mean, sparing 4 towns is an instant town win, but so is fighting 2 scum. The added benefit is that by fighting you get to VCA, by sparing you don't.

[Farkran]

Hi suji! Besides scumreading you, i am happy to play with you again!

I'd like you to answer my 401 wrt your part. What reason did you have to scumread Farkran, rather than Asriel? Why is asking for a recap scummy in your eyes?

Pedit: i don't recall hectic claiming FN. I am fairly sure he claimed NOT being FN. Am i wrong?

Hello. Good to play with you again as well. What specifically from your 401 would you like answered by me? I disliked your outsourcing your reads to others prior to stating your own opinion becuase

1. The game is not that long, and it should not take you long to catch up
   
2. It allows you to modify your opinions to fit others and the game state as a whole instead of accurately projecting your true opinion

I did not say that Hectic was the Friendly Neighbor (he in fact claimed that he was not). I was asking of your opinion regardless of who is the Friendly Neighbor as you are adamantly against Sparing. I have written in depth on my thoughts on waiting for the Friendly Neighbor to wait until Day 2 to claim, so you are welcome to read through my ISO. I will reassess with your stated consideration. Thank you.

Yeah... my problem with this explanation is that it seems made specifically as a followup to your scumread of my pred, rather than a genuine scumread of Farkran. Did you consider that asking for a recap has nothing to do with reading said recap, but rather to see who picks the request up and is willing to summarize past events and in doing so produce more info about their own slot, i.e. what events have been the most significative to them, what was worth pointing out and what was worth hiding and/or not worth recalling?

This is one reason i liked how Chara answered to me compared to Hectic or you, Suji. To aggravate your position, instead of trying to reassess a weak scumread on a recently replaced slot, you immediately found reason to add more weight to it, even though pops' 394 removed the deadline pressure to reach a positive conclusion for this day. Your latest explanations did nothing to justify this, instead consolidating my already existing suspicion of you being leading a scum agenda.

[Farkran]

My dislike of your comment upon replace in is divorced my read on your predecessor. You can believe that to be genuine or not and I cannot change that. I find requesting opinions from others rather than providing your own and then requesting others’ to be indicative of Mafia. You may posit alternative rationale, but I disagree with it.

I might have believed that if you changed your read from my pred to me based on that comment, but after your opportunistic vote in 264, there's almost no world in which i would believe your latest read on me is divorced from that. Also, if i had to request opinions as mafia, i would likely read or ask for them in my scum PT, don't you think? That's not even the main issue here though, the most significant problem with your comment is that you have IMMEDIATELY tried to shot me down, putting weight on an already existing scumread which was necessarily weak, given that it was parked on a lurker slot. This is how you push a mislynch, not how you try to scumhunt.

pedit @sherlock: i'm trying to take advantage of you being here to reread your ISO, but i'm not sure if i have any particular question for you besides talk me more about almidia and chemist. My read of almidia is not particularly strong, but i certainly wouldn't place chemist in my top townreads.

[Farkran]

Oh, actually I think suji is locktown but it’s for a very angleshooty reason I’d rather avoid

Oh, and this. I'm very interested in this.

[Farkran]

Spoiler: Chemist

HEAL: Asriel

I think him being openly nervous about the intro is towny

lightly, but still something I wanna go off of

HEAL: Asriel

I think him being openly nervous about the intro is towny

lightly, but still something I wanna go off of

Asriel's nervous about everything.

you're probably right, but I think if he were scum he'd be more nervous about being nervous

hectic, is that why you initially voted to fight Sherlock?

Mssrs. Nachomamma8, JTheophrastus, Chemist, and Hectic: could I entice you gentlemen with the prospect of lynching our companion Alimdia?

why these names out of the entire game?

I’m not 100% on my Asriel spare, never was, but he hasn’t done anything to make him strongly trend down

I haven’t been that around tbh but you’re probably the only person I would consider moving my spare to

@Rep
I switched to Asriel from Hectic because I wanted do be doing something new with my vote

Really I don’t remember having a reason but it was probably something like that

If you think scum are trying to lurk it’s probably better to go pacifist to force them to do stuff

Why is Hectic town to you, alim?

where do you see scum, Chemist?

not hectic
probably not you, rep, or asriel
I feel like pine is a cop-out push at this point so slightly lean town there

so that leaves sherlock/nacho/alim/amrun/suji

will probably work through this soon

Asriel's ISO to me is like

town null null null null etc.

really the only thing is towny tone and him having nothing against him

This is all townposting, I think

He didn’t need to go out for asriel in the way he did, if he was defending a scumbuddy it’s an odd time to do so as there wasn’t any real pressure there at the time, but also he doesn’t double down on it — I think the strength of his read and his reasons are very reasonable

Also he’s been here, and I think a number of the questions he’s asked have been actively trying to advance the game instead of just lurk out and avoid producing. Chemist being meme-y or low content isn’t AI for him, but the level to which he’s engaged is and it’s +town

I also like him defending pine as lhf because I think that’s pretty bang on in terms of assessment

I don’t see why scum chem deliberately chooses to defend lynchable slots like asriel and pine and to put amrun/nacho (both of whom would be much harder to lynch) in his “likely scum here” pool

Eh, i am not sure i agree with this. There are reasons to defend a weak slot, as much as there are for pushing it. It depends a lot on the timing and the way you do it. For instance, i don't believe that people who were scumreading asriel were inherently scummy for that motive alone. My pred's ISO is not good. Just as Pine/Psyche isn't. Pushing a lurker slot makes sense, but only as a compromise, policy or for the lack of a better option. In a game where people's consensus is torn between fighting and sparing, i'd say there are A LOT of other options, even though i disagree with that. This is also the reason why i asked people who are scumreading me, what led them to this gamestate. I didn't receive any really satisfying answer so far - i have yet to read Chara and Nacho's ISOs, but i have both of them as townlean/townread so far.

Chemist has done nothing particularly town indicative, i think (skimmed his ISO right now). Nothing scummy either. It strikes me weird that you would place him as such a strong townread, just as it would have struck me weird if you placed him as your highest scumread. I have meta with town!chemist in another mini theme, the same i played with town!sujimichi. Both are fairly distant from my knowledge of their meta, but sujimichi here is plain scummy, whereas chemist is more on the null side.

Suffice to say, if you prod around suji’s meta I imagine you’ll find what I mean

I will take a look at his recent posts tomorrow, but... eh.

[Farkran]

My dislike of your comment upon replace in is divorced my read on your predecessor. You can believe that to be genuine or not and I cannot change that. I find requesting opinions from others rather than providing your own and then requesting others’ to be indicative of Mafia. You may posit alternative rationale, but I disagree with it.

I might have believed that if you changed your read from my pred to me based on that comment, but after your opportunistic vote in 264, there's almost no world in which i would believe your latest read on me is divorced from that. Also, if i had to request opinions as mafia, i would likely read or ask for them in my scum PT, don't you think? That's not even the main issue here though, the most significant problem with your comment is that you have IMMEDIATELY tried to shot me down, putting weight on an already existing scumread which was necessarily weak, given that it was parked on a lurker slot. This is how you push a mislynch, not how you try to scumhunt.

pedit @sherlock: i'm trying to take advantage of you being here to reread your ISO, but i'm not sure if i have any particular question for you besides talk me more about almidia and chemist. My read of almidia is not particularly strong, but i certainly wouldn't place chemist in my top townreads.

I have said what I intend to say regarding your view on my stance on you and your predecessor. I will not engage further and the other players can decide from the content provided. I will express that I seem to view “lurker” slots differently than you in that I do not think that keeping them in the game in hopes a replacement will provide more content is beneficial. I also believe that you are attributing your method of playing the game with the only way of playing the game, and using that as a basis to read other players is suboptimal as everyone plays this game in a different manner.

If you would like to engage on other subjects, I look forward to it.

Sorry, but i am unable to see it as a playstyle issue. My method of playing the game might not be the best, but from my pov and my read of your reaction to my introduction, i fail to see how you are not pushing a mislynch here. On the contrary, i agree with you on the fact that lurkers should NOT be saved in hope a replacements come in, but once it does, furthering a weak scumread by inducting scumminess on newer posts is... bad. This is not going to change, but i can respect your will to disengage from this specific topic.

Do you have any other scumread?

[Farkran]

Lynching lurkers as a compromise is one of the main ways in which towns lose games

Scum push one or two wagons up, town gets exhausted as the factions battle it out and then those wagons are potential mislynches down the line and a lurker has been got

An ISO being empty doesn’t mean the ISO is bad — the pine/pysche ISO isn’t bad, it’s just that there’s nothing there. If there were posts and there was still nothing there it might be bad, but as it stands it’s just... meh

People are notoriously bad at reading chemist because they think him lurking is NAI and fail to engage with what he does on its own terms. If you engage with chemist

as chemist

he’s very readable, and has produced solidly AI content even if there’s been a lot of memeing and not being serious and just being fun alongside it

It’s a matter of looking through the static to find the meaningful image, and that is possible from what he’s done thus far. I would be very surprised if chemist flipped scum this game

I had a different experience though - statistical analysis of MY games (i'm being specific here) shows that lurkers have flipped red more than they flipped green. I think compromising on a lurker is not necessarily a bad idea - again, assuming the lack of better options - but it only validates a weak read on the slot and is never a reason to ignore a heavy gamestate change as sujimichi did.

I will probably out the reason for locktown!suji if you two aren’t able to see that your interaction is screaming town talking past each other rather than SvT

You might as well. But if you really don't want to, i'll try to metadive suji later (tomorrow, 1.30 am here) and see if i can get on your same wavelength.

Again though, exchanges like this are more useful to read the talking slots rather than the objects they're talking about - unless you are specifically scum with suji, i am reconsidering you as a strong townlean.

[Farkran]

@Chara, reading your ISO now.

Spoiler: chara

HURT: Amrun

this

does

feel more like a round of thundersnail than an exciting battle between good and evil, i can't argue with that.
but Amrun, i'd like to poke the tiger here and see if we can't jumpstart this game a little more, given you expressed a regret at not doing that so far.
i was thinking your fight with Sujimichi was about as low-stakes as mine, so why not fight Asriel with Nacho instead of just nodding at it?

Sujimichi made a good point about who i was fighting. i did think Billy's initial action was suspicious, and wanted to find out more, but it can't do that now and sitting there isn't going to do anything.
Sujimichi didn't exactly impress me when they decided to tag in, but the way they pressed on their friendly neighbourhood idea, and especially the end of 226, really does feel like Sujimichi is just a straightforward sort!
we might not ever be really

good

friends, but i don't think someone with too much to hide usually responds to me like that.

Asriel's definitely boring me here... i don't mind getting him into things, either.

though... i do hope your volcano metaphor remains a metaphor. he's still my brother. if anyone's going to be holding him over a volcano, it's going to be me.

275: me? two-timing? i'm the most honest child you could ever meet.
the way my conversation with Sujimichi went made me like them more. they were very matter of fact with their read on me, and i felt like i was being figured out some.
it feels either short-sighted or assumptive (is this a word? i'll make it one anyways) to say there are only two ways to approach someone you scumread, towntelling.
and more importantly... thanking me a couple of times didn't have much to do with the read getting better. that'd be pretty

bizarre

, wouldn't it?

HURT: Asriel

i know your post wasn't entirely directed at me, Replica, but you aren't wrong.
i will hopefully do a better job of being myself tomorrow.
i don't know if it's a better idea to make friends or enemies right now. i know there's been a great deal of debate on the subject, but my ignorance of things like 'logic' and 'strategy' sorely hurts my competence in parsing them.

one thing i really don't understand is saying that lynching today is a waste. i know that the rules are quite different in this sort of game, but is it really a waste? it's one thing if i'm very confident we're sparing town, but while i certainly enjoy Hectic's company i'm not sure i would bet the game on it.

as for Replica themself, i find this persona one that's likely difficult to fake.
i should really pay more attention to what alimdia is saying as well, if only to be thorough.

Amrun is a difficult case in that i agree with what she's said, and can identify with that. such as 254 as i mentioned. (about not wanting to let up on Sujimichi) but i don't know if making sense is enough.

Amrun, what about Replica did you like more? besides the contextual mistakes, which were rectified when pointed out, i feel like their posting feel has been fairly consistent since they replaced in.

It seems that you too - but to a lesser extent - are suffering from a bit of internal inconsistency. Your vote on me seems reasonable in a vacuum. However, could you lead me to understand why, out of a 1v1v1 between you-amrun-suji, you chose to reconsider suji in the end? How are you feeling about him right now? What about Amrun? Why did you decide to join both on the wagon against me?

I mean, by reading your posts it seems that you are having an hard time figuring out a scumread (admittedly, you said you are better at townhunting). Who are the slots you would describe as most unreadable?

[Farkran]

Also good night everyone, 2 am here, see you tomorrow.

[Farkran]

...i forgot i had an active spare vote.

HEAL: popsofctown

I will only spare my favorite pops of all time, who coincidentally is doing a really fine work with flavor.

Now good night for real!

[Farkran]

HURT: unvote

I can agree to forgo this for now given I believe Farkran will, with more certainty, make his alignment known in a way that I can understand it. I do not see how you are reading our interaction as necessarily Town versus Town though, SherlockHolmes.

I did read through your content and I find most of it to be concerning Nachomamma8, Pine/Psyche being a null read, and Chemist-422 being a town lean. I have commented on the first. I agree with the second. I cannot say on the third as I do not see enough from Chemist1422 to make a determination one way or the other.

HURT: Nachomamma8

Yowch, unvote Farkran after pressure, but not because of a townread. only to vote with him on a wagon of his creation.


Please y’all can we fight this?

Hmmm... i think this is a townslip from Amrun. Banal misrep on a scumread, i think this almost always comes from tunneled town. Or, at least, Amrun is genuinely pushing suji and not trying to put pressure or reaction test anything.

I'll explain the thought process that led to this conclusion: when you are town and uninformed, you form uncertain reads, which then you subconsciously corroborate every time you see something that apparently agrees with your theory. It's wrong to play like that, but it's how the human brain instinctively works. If something goes in the same direction as you are going, you are more likely to perceive it as true - therefore you do not pause to doublecheck if you were correct. That is indicative of sincerity. Sure, scum!Amrun too could produce a fake tunnel against suji, but it's... way less likely, because it's really hard to fake subconscious reads. I am more confident on town!Amrun now, and the displayed range of read mistakes/instinctive thought would explain her internal inconsistency i pointed out earlier.

[Farkran]

I disagree with the conclusion of Farkran's #444, I buy most of Sujimichi's #420 in explaining their reaction. I do think #456 is a bit delusional about the divorce bit, but I come out of this still liking Sujimichi over others. It might be helpful to try to order people somewhat; I'll try and circle back to that in a bit. Their mention of town Sujimichi also makes me want to go back and read them.

For multiple reasons Sujimichi is very low on my list to lynch. First: Willingness to hammer the spare. Second: Their playstyle strongly hints to me that we have to look for voting/pushing patterns over tone. Farkran's started to delve into the latter, but this is not my pick for the day.

P-Edit: The "I do not respond to pressure" is again failing to recognize their own limits I think, which is a shame. That's a liability for us, but it's also a big liability for them as a player more broadly.

Here's a true playstyle/reasoning difference. I probably won't see eye to eye with replica in this game, because of different assumptions and different mindsets. It's still worth asking though, why point 2 would be indicative of town!suji? You are implying he is low on your lynch list because of that, but i don't see atonality as town points. Point 1 would do, based on your premise, which is different than mine and i don't really want to bring heavy setup spec to the table again. I would have, if i was here at the time, because i really think Spare is the worse option.

Would you agree with Sherlock in that me and suji is TvT at this point? Where does this conclusion leave sherlock in your mind?

[Farkran]

Nvm you answered it two post later and then produced a readlist.

(yeah, i'm catching up)

[Farkran]

Replica, in what way is that different than how you’d expect Chara to handle that thought train as town?

I'm not familiar with Chara. I don't know how they'd normally handle it as town. I highlighted it as something very different than the way

I

think as town, and exactly what this difference was.

To more explicitly outline what happened for you: Chara did not expect Nacho to townread them. Nacho townread them. Chara "can't help but like it". I post about how different this is from my style of thinking: I don't like when something surprises me or doesn't match up to my expectations.

Same as i described what i would expect from town!Amrun, i don't think town!Chara would feel off by the surprise townread given by Nacho if the read matches Chara's alignment. I think it would produce a pleasant reaction, but nothing to form a solid read on - this matches with Chara's behavior afterwards, as he doesn't seem to produce a hard townread of Nacho.

I think the upcoming Chara vs Hectic interaction is a similar example of that and i would like to hear more from both slots.

@Chara, why the spare on hectic?

@Hectic, why don't you like Chara townreading you so much as to FIGHT him for that?

[Farkran]

and the timing of her SPARE vote change after alimdia said he would hammer soon feels like she would rather have someone be (mis)lynched instead...

This line in particular - i see how this could come from different setup spec conclusions, i.e. you like spare while i don't, but why do you think it is scum motivated to prevent a spare hammer? What's to gain, from a scum POV, in ending the day with a fight instead of a spare? Even if we disagree on what is the better route in general, i would think that Chara's only benefit in preventing a Spare would be that Hectic is not his scumpartner and therefore he doesn't want to spare there. Why do you think that sparing 4 town is easier than fighting 2 scum, though?

[Farkran]

Hectic: i switched to my best townread at the time as i was posting. we had more time afterwards as well so there was no need to switch back.
why do you regret telling alimdia to wait on your spare? we have replacements and a deadline extension and i'm glad we didn't end the day there.

This is interesting - why is replica your highest townread, even though he's 1. scumreading you and 2. having a very different playstyle and mindset than you? I am not implying that anyone who matches those two points is scummy, but i also don't see how that leads to make him your HIGHEST townread. You say you are good at townhunting, can you produce a readlist?

[Farkran]

i should go through Farkran's entrance properly

Yes please

[Farkran]

and finally one more thought before i tear myself away.

even if we spare today (i don't think we should), and even if we spare all four days (i !!!REALLY!!! don't think we should), i think it'd be beneficial for the town to try to flush out some baddies first. hectic brought up that there's more town than scum and townies can sometimes be scummy and scum struggle to be townie (which I disagree with but different time different place) - not making an earnest effort to find them makes looking townie a hell of a lot easier. the thing that makes scum scum is the lying and it's much harder for scum to lie and say "that person i know is town is scum" or "you are wrong about my partner that you caught" than it is for them to say "i'm town! the townie everyone thinks is town!".

think about it, friends. don't let this young dragon's words of wisdom fall on deaf ears.

I disagree with your risk assessment strongly, and I need to evaluate whether this is truly your opinion on what is best for Town or your desired outcome.

My mechanical thoughts here are the same I expressed during the last Undertale game I play and after seeing our town win despite miscues and seeing the SPARE CITY town go down in horrible flames they are thoughts that I continue to maintain. Consider the following points and tell me how crazy I'm being here.

PROPOSAL A: SPARING CONFIRMED TOWN IS NO MORE BENEFICIAL THAN SPARING VANILLA TOWN

Consider the game of billiards. In the game, a "duck" is considered a shot so easy that you basically can't miss it. And yet, common strategy dictates that you don't take ducks the minute they become available; you use them when you don't have any other good shots available. This is because correctly sinking balls that are in OK but not perfect are more valuable than sinking balls that you know you will get anyways - kind of how correctly sparing a vanilla town now is more valuable than a confirmed town. If we back ourselves into a corner and things get mucky, sure, take the duck. But otherwise, why should we take it right now? We still have to sink the same number of balls - why not take care of those we are most likely to lose opportunities in via nightkills

now

and take the duck when it is most convenient to us?

PROPOSAL 2: SCUM PLAYING AROUND MECHANICS OF FRIENDLY NEIGHBOR IS ACTUALLY GOOD FOR TOWN

So, bear with me because I know that I am constantly teetering on the edge of insanity. When we spare someone, that person should always self-hammer and they should always claim friendly neighbor or not while they self-hammer. This means there's a 0% chance of erroneous claims and it prevents the scenario where scum can reasonably claim friendly neighbor and get away with it.

Keeping that in mind, I think it's far better for town if scum have to deal with the possibility of their plans going to shit with mislynch target #1 claiming friendly neighbor and they can no longer push them - we are much more likely to catch them with their pants down than we would be otherwise and I really don't think that getting a correct Spare D1 is a situation that scum is actually in any way afraid of.

My other thought (the smallest of the three, so I'm not making it big and bold) is that we are protecting a player, a voice, not so much a role - thus I'd rather protect someone I know is a good player and I know who will produce and push the town towards a win as opposed to rolling a roulette wheel and hoping that a strong town player is also a friendly neighbor.

Do you still disagree with my risk assessment? Do you kind of see where I'm coming from or do I still seem lost in the sauce?

HEAL: Hectic

My strongest townread seems to be a sickness that's spreading throughout the entire town; if I spare today, I can't think of anyone I'd rather save than you <3

Nacho, why you too?

[Farkran]

Conclusions: i am strongly considering scum presence in my wagon, given how all these interactions rolled out before i replaced in. That quartet seems too cohesive to be natural. People have been changing opinion on setup spec and reads almost simultaneously, for almost no reason at all. In my first readthrough, Nacho and Amrun seemed the most town but after a more in-depth analysis they are not consistent in their progression and thoughts. Amrun now does look a bit better, but that's mostly a gut-interpretation of her latest townslip. Sujimichi was scummy even before my rep-in, i see no reason to save that so far. Chara is the best out of the four, mostly because of how he picked up my request for a recap, but i do want to hear more.

[Farkran]

Why me too what?

"let's not spare"
-posts later-
"spare: guy"

[Farkran]

Chara is the best out of the four, mostly because of how he picked up my request for a recap, but i do want to hear more.

really...
i don't really get why would this be town-indicative... that's a relatively easy way for scum to look helpful without putting themselves at risk... so i wouldn't call it AI...
i wish i'd asked Sujimichi to hammer because from my perspective i know i'm town and it's an optimal play...

it's similar to what people were saying earlier where town should always self-hammer if put on L-1...

but i did want to wait for replacements and the activity has been good so it's not all bad...
it's the nature of Chara's interactions with me through the game...
she kept giving me the impression she wasn't townreading me with some of the questions she asked me or things she said...
so keeping her SPARE vote on me the whole time is strange...
though i guess one possibility is she wanted to be sure i was town if she's going to SPARE me and is why she was acting like that which would make sense...

Exposing yourself by generating new content might be easy to fake as scum to get towncred, but the more you produce, the more you can be called out later. It's usually not a good long-term plan for scum, but it might be consistent with chara profile - definitely doesn't seem like the long-term type. I can agree to the bottom part of your post, and that's what i want to hear from chara.

Wrt the bolded, if anything, scum would have even MORE reason to selfhammer, so why would you point out that it's optimal play for town? I mean, ok, but without a flip you are validating scum quickhammers on spare for no reason at all

[Farkran]

Conclusions: i am strongly considering scum presence in my wagon, given how all these interactions rolled out before i replaced in. That quartet seems too cohesive to be natural. People have been changing opinion on setup spec and reads almost simultaneously, for almost no reason at all. In my first readthrough, Nacho and Amrun seemed the most town but after a more in-depth analysis they are not consistent in their progression and thoughts. Amrun now does look a bit better, but that's mostly a gut-interpretation of her latest townslip. Sujimichi was scummy even before my rep-in, i see no reason to save that so far. Chara is the best out of the four, mostly because of how he picked up my request for a recap, but i do want to hear more.

This is where i come from though - out of that group, both Chara and Suji placed an opportunistic vote on my slot, but in a Chara vs Suji 1v1 i would always side with Chara. The same holds true for Amrun vs Suji and Nacho vs Suji, which means i think Suji is the scum on my wagon so far. Could be 2 scum, which would point to Chara/Suji out of those 4, but... i have them as disaligned. Why wouldn't that specific scumteam join their efforts against me instead of diverging after i replace in?

[Farkran]

HURT: JTB

Just to have a vote down+see how this develops

Chemist do you have a followup on this? JTB is the Replica slot, for the record. I believe there has been plenty of content to analyze by now

[Farkran]

Do you want to update it?

[Farkran]

Also i metadived the recent suji and found one scum game (over) and some other game i cannot talk about i guess, but in none of them i saw reason to townlock him here. @sherlock we may talk about the finished scum game if you think it's worth it

[Farkran]

I'd like to run a questionary to everyone.

Say you need to pick exactly one scum in {nacho, amrun, chara and suji}. Who do you pick and why?

I'm not currently interested in theories where there are no scum or more than one scum among those, the premise is that there is exactly one. Let's try it. It's going to be useful.

[Farkran]

Well yeah i said the question was addressed to everyone but clearly amrun and suji were answering before i even asked

[Farkran]

@chara why did you heal replica later, then?

Also what do you answer to my questionary?

[Farkran]

Sorry, for some reason i misinterpreted your 556. You quoted Amrun, so i didn't think you were actually answering to me

[Farkran]

Chara, it is weird though that your spare targets are two people who are ultimately scumleaning you, when you claim you have been liking nacho's townread.

I mean, it would be acceptable (although almost never optimal play) to form a weak townread of someone who townreads you in return, but it's very unusual to form two strong townreads of people who are scumleaning you. I kinda never heard of that.

Can i ask you to produce a readlist for me?

[Farkran]

I admit i am focusing on the people who were on my wagon more than i am on people off. I already said how i think my pred ISO is bad enough to justify votes on me, but having 3 people joining the same wagon on both the spare and fight options pinged me. It is also weird to single out suji out of those 4, given that he is the one who isn't on the same spare wagon - that's why i am trying to -reasonably- remove paranoia bias on the other 3. I'm now interested in what nacho has to say about this, since both you and amrun singled out suji too.

As for why i am insisting on these questions, it's because i liked your iso on a first read, but on the second one i noticed it wasn't as clear and defined as i recalled it to be. Having you clarify on the points i am unsure of, and holding you accountable for them later will be useful. For instance, i'm still not entirely sure why you would pick suji over amrun, but you have talked enough about it, at least for now.

Also i am on mobile and mostly going from memory now - talking about hectic, i don't scumread him. Delaying a spare on his own self is presumably the worst thing scum could do, so that is a significant amount of towncred. The rest of his ISO, i'm... dubious. Hectic has a reputation of being unreadable (at least to me), so i will be slow forming a hard read on him. Definitely wouldn't fight there today.

Pedit: see, now you're confusing me. You say you'd pick suji for my questionary, but now you say you feel more confident on suji town over amrun. You said you like my entrance and you unfighted me, but i am still on the bottom of your readlist. I don't know if it's just me, but i am having an hard time making order in your thoughts. I mean no offense when i say this, it might be my problem rather than yours.

[Farkran]

I'll... get help.

@almidia, can you help me understand what Chara said in his most recent posts?

[Farkran]

I mean, scum has to fake being town, so it's not a townlock. But i agree it's towncred. My experience with hectic is limited, but i have played some games with him recently, one of which was townhunt based. I was scum in there, and i won. Hectic was correctly townread before endgame, but his meta was... far enough than how he's performing here, although that particular game was very weird to begin with (it was a jester nightless, if you know the format).

Uhm, so... amrun and suji are on the same line in your readlist... gun to your head, do you lynch suji or amrun? That should end our exchange on that topic.

[Farkran]

Farkran came in armed and active and all of a sudden seemed harder to lynch.

I am SO adding this line to my sig postgame

[Farkran]

In regard to Farkran, not enough time has passed for me to re-evaluate. I believe that Farkran is one that can get caught in a tunnel on players as town (to the detriment of the town), but also is one that can use his activity levels to lead town as Mafia. Admittedly, I have not played with Farkran where he has been Mafia, so that is a weaker statement on my part. As it stands, the largest Fight wagon of the day was on Farkran when he replaced in, and I am currently trying to assess whether he contributions thus far are an honest attempt to sort the players that were on his wagon, or to redirect his wagon onto a mislynch. I am unlikely to be able to answer that today.

Well thanks for the free shade, our only experience together is a 13p game where we were both town and we won day 4, i only mislynched one guy out of mech PoE, but ok, providing only "detriment of the town" and "good mafia leader" as the descriptions available for me sounds fine. I'm not taking it on a personal level though, it just feels very off tone for a player such as you, who claims to be immune to emotional influences.

[Farkran]

I'd like to run a questionary to everyone.

Say you need to pick exactly one scum in {nacho, amrun, chara and suji}. Who do you pick and why?

I'm not currently interested in theories where there are no scum or more than one scum among those, the premise is that there is exactly one. Let's try it. It's going to be useful.

@Replica, Sherlock, Psyche, can you answer this for me? I'll ask Toriel to prepare cookies if you do

[Farkran]

This isn't well fleshed out but skimming today I'd put scum as something like lying in Nacho/Psyche/Farkran and the rest are town, next guess probably being Chemist.

Is this still due to Asriel, or do you scumread anything in my own posts as Farkran?

Also i'm wondering how Nacho specifically has now became consensus FoS from Suji and Replica (and sherlock, but he looks independent from the other two), but none of them are questioning the towniness of Hectic (Nacho is the leading train for his spare) or my scumminess (Nacho is the only remaining fight vote on me). Actually, i have to admit Suji did question my scumminess by switching his vote to Nacho. Hmmm.

Nacho, i'd like to hear your opinion on these interactions from you, please.

[Farkran]

At very least, I'm sympathetic w/ suspicion against nacho. I think it's because I've picked up kinda high expectations for his townplay, and he doesn't seem to really be meeting them here. But that's so weak! I'm totally aware that it's so weak!

I don't like Hectic's or Sherlock's schtick. They're both quite distracting. I disagree w/ Nacho's mentioned rationale re:Hectic asserting the towniness of loose/chilled-out play. My experience is that it's way easier to relax in a game thread w/o the burden of having no idea who scum is. There's so much less responsibility for what you say in a situation like that - all sorts of bullshit becomes game!

Do agree though that Sujimishi's gameplay here is a lot different from his in micro 917. In general, Hectic's posts are reasonably substantive and don't seem very disingenuous. I guess in the end I do think the Spare call has some ground? Yeah, I'm actually willing to enthusiastically roll with that.

Ok, I feel better. I'm starting to get opinions. I'd rather we lynch people. But finding town can be so much easier than deciding someone's scum, in my experience. Ugh.

And this. At least this one is questioning Hectic spare. Still, it feels very weird that my highest scumreads are now SLing nacho.

I hate to interrupt my catchup but i need to be away several hours, working away from home today. I'll get back this evening.

[Farkran]

Also i'm wondering how Nacho specifically has now became consensus FoS from Suji and Replica (and sherlock, but he looks independent from the other two), but none of them are questioning the towniness of Hectic (Nacho is the leading train for his spare) or my scumminess (Nacho is the only remaining fight vote on me). Actually, i have to admit Suji did question my scumminess by switching his vote to Nacho. Hmmm.

My town read on Hectic is independent of my read on Nachomama8. Are you asserting that a scum player would not accurately town read a Town player intentionally? You are correct in that I stated that I was re-evaluating you as Mafia and have provided where you fall in my current Fight order.

No, i am asserting that it's weird that people fighting me were mostly the same people sparing hectic. This does not necessarily imply that Hectic is scum, but from my POV i'm very, very skeptical of my wagon being full town, and by extension i find it weird that scum would be happy to spare town!hectic.

Having divergent opinions on what's better between spare and fight might be NAI, but the choice of which players to spare and fight is definitely not. This is one of the main reasons i am skeptical of town!Hectic to begin with - i am always wary of general consensus wagons formed by easy "town blocs" when i know for certain that said town blocs are wrong, and ending this day on a flipless spare is definitely NOT a good idea. As i said, even fighting my slot would be better than that - at least you will have a flip to work with, realize that this town bloc is probably NOT a town bloc, and ultimately realize why i am being so insistent against sparing - especially using this specific wagon composition as a basis.

[Farkran]

I admit i missed Nacho's V/LA post too. This is... problematic. I have stuff i wanted to hear from nacho, but he's not coming back before deadline. I did not particularly scumread him though, especially given the recent swing against him. I don't like people going V/LA around deadlines when the day hasn't been decided yet, but i guess this is justified with the replacements coming in.

I really don't like psyche posts either... next post will include details. I am starting to have too many scumreads, i need to update my readlist and make order in my thoughts. Also coming in the very near future.

Pedit: where did you notice the differences between that scum!suji and this suji? Because if we're talking about the same game (Micro 917 saga stuff), he fakeclaimed a PR, no wonder why he was using a more determined tone. Plus, that's also a very nice scum game from him, and i don't see anything in this game that would be outside of his range.

Pedit2: ok, thanks. Question though, is there a reason why you specifically do NOT want to fight your scumreads? Why am i the only one who thinks that all the spare route rewards except the instant town win actually favor scum? In all of these, mafia gets to remove X people from the remaining list, it's not like we gain players. The 3 Spared scenario is especially bad because mafia gets to remove 2 players unflipped and we do NOT get to know if they were forced to remove one of them or not. Also what happens in the 1 Spared scenario if that spared player is scum? Is that an instant scum win? Because ... how can an unlynchable scum be removed otherwise?

[Farkran]

Subject: Saga Mafia Threats to Hazel PT

Hey mastina! I think that I should keep my current role, if that is okay with you. This is my first time as Mafia, and being assured of death prior to Day 3 relieves some of the pressure for me.

Suji started this game after s/he started this one. I think that dropping the tone in that comment is entirely natural, and wasn’t planned out as a safeguard against that game ending first, which makes me strongly believe they had rolled town in this game before getting their scum PM there.

This is why I said it was angleshooty and I still think it’s kind of ick, but I would like us to move on from suji!scum discussion.

Uhm, i originally skipped this because i didn't understand what you meant to say. Rereading psyche ISO, i went back to this too and understood what you meant to say. It's... eh, it's probably true. That PT probably shouldn't have been released, but i can't really blame Suji or the mod for it - you just don't think so far ahead wrt those arguments.

This also explains why the psyche ISO was looking poorly, before realizing that. Now it makes sense.

HURT: pops

[Farkran]

Wrt the first pedit in my 682, i was just likely wrong on suji. I did not read the scum PT of that game. And this also makes sherlock very likely to be town for pointing it out. Working from that perspective, i am left with being a bit paranoid of Amrun, but i believe that townslip she made was real. Nacho and Chara might fall a bit from my grace, but even then there is no real reason to push for sparing town!hectic if both are scum. So...

World 1. All hectic spare wagon, including suji who gave intent to hammer, is town. Means the wagon against Asriel was also town. Scum is not pushing for a gamestate change because sparing is bad even if its a town spare (not changing my opinion on this, i still believe that all the sparing rewards are scumsided, despite a balanced math - and we do not know it was a town spare until too late), but a full town mislynch is also very favorable for the scumteam. This world makes sense. A team of Chemist/Psyche would make sense, with Chemist whiteknighting the lurkers generally to hide a soft-defense of his lurker partner.

World 2. One of Nacho/Chara/Amrun is scum with hectic specifically. That means Replica, Chemist, Almidia, Psyche and two out of the aforementioned trio are town (alongside me, suji and sherlock whom i have already talked about). This world makes... a bit less sense, all things considered. I still don't particularly like psyche, i mean - even i, as scum, would instantly townread suji after i realize what sherlock pointed out. Actually, even moreso since i would be 100% sure suji is town, and i would have good reason to wk him. Posts 661 and 665 are a different thing though.

@Psyche, why THAT level of certainty on those slots (#665) - particularly Hectic and Nacho?

World 3. One of Nacho/Chara/Amrun is scum with one of Replica/Chemist/Almidia/Psyche. This is... probably better than world 2, could make sense with scum!Chara unsparing town!hectic at the last minute, in this particular scenario Chara/Psyche is the best team for poor interactions. Nacho/Psyche too, for pretty much the same reasons + that post 665 from Psyche really pings me the wrong way now.

I want to see if Amrun is accountable about that Psyche vote, and Psyche is still very deep in my scumpool even individually. HURT: Psyche

[Farkran]

Replica/Hectic is... reachy, but both the two are kinda pushing in favor of Sparing a bit too much, with "ending the day without consensus" as an excuse for it. Meh. I too wouldn't lynch hectic though, and besides advocating for spare i don't really scumread Replica. Being wrong does not equal being scummy, as the old say goes.

[Farkran]

Oh that was another question I missed, my sparing Hectic despite my scumleans Chara/Nacho being on it. I think you're the one who asked it Farkran but I can't remember. #301 and #322 addressed this.

I'll investigate your worlds more deeply in a bit.

in favor of Sparing a bit too much, with "ending the day without consensus" as an excuse for it

? Do you realize how bad it is to boycott decisions as town? Just to illustrate the principle behind it, say 5 town want to spare, 4 town want to lynch, and neither will switch sides. Guess what alignment is guaranteed to get spared/lynched?

You are correct in saying that the only thing worse than sparing is leaving the decision to scum, i'll grant you that. It's not like i wouldn't hammer a spare if i was the last active player, 10 minutes before the deadline. But, as i said, i believe we genuinely do not see eye to eye wrt the best route to take - and that makes you probably town, just wrong town. In my personal opinion.

If i started this game from the beginning, i would probably invest a couple pages running setup spec with math & stats, but having to catchup and scumhunt as a replacement in an already established gamestate, i will just insist as much as possible that it's wrong, and i summarized the reasons why i think it is wrong. I hope, at least, that you'd be willing to hammer a fight in reversed positions (4p wants spare, 5p wants lynch). I mean - this line of thinking also literally allows potential scum to go under the radar without even making effort to create false scumreads. All they have to do is push to spare 3 town + their partner, and the whole sparing heaven becomes ratfood.

Pedit incoming

[Farkran]

I forgot to answer the one I did remember earlier, which was if I scumread something in your (Farkran's) posts specifically or if you went down for another reason. Answer is that I didn't see anything I dlsliked, but my thoughts shifted in two ways. First, I initially liked your activity/eagerness to give reads, but I increasingly think you're a player who is likely to take that same energy as scum, if not even moreso. The way to deal with this is to delve deeper into the process and pattern of your reads specifically, which will be a project, but hopefully I'll get to it. Second, Chara specifically drastically improved while the rest you leaped I just had lumped into this "I guess they're probably town but it's not a strong feeling and has no solid basis" pile (Sujimichi, Chemist, Amrun)

It is true, i am very active and i form readlists as both alignements. This is a reason to have a sane paranoia of my alignment in this game, but it doesn't look like a reason to scumread me - that's was the original meaning of my question.

Wrt the other point, i am townleaning you - not townreading - because you seem to believe what you say, as opposed to making it up. You are more internally consistent than a lot of other slots here, and that USUALLY comes from town players of any kind, or good scum players. I haven't metadived you yet, you are very far from my highest scumreaded slots, but i will hold you accountable if your sparing pattern changes over the days. As i said, a Replica/Hectic solve is very reachy at this point, but neither of you two are completely ruled out. However, unless i have reason to change my mind, you are probably ruled out for today.

[Farkran]

For Farkran, the point of my exception is that yes I won't boycott: your post I interpreted as postulating that I was preemptively giving myself an excuse to change to a hurt vote. What I was saying was "I'm not voting hurt until it becomes obviously detrimental to hold out"

Oh. No, that was not what i meant to imply with my post. That question was aimed at understanding your thought processes when voting. If you acknowledge the existence of scum in this game, you must also acknowledge the possibility of sparing scum, and that scum would promote the sparing of their partner. I was asking you why, how, and who are you confident believing when you throw a spare on someone. You already answered this - for today.

I also don't have any publicly available meta. I doubt how useful it'd be and would spoiler it but if you want insight into my perceptions of myself as a player - how I approach scum, how I approach town, what my weaknesses are, etc. - I'll answer.

I didn't look at your join date. I assume you are an alt? I remember someone saying they were an alt but not willing to reveal their main, is that you? Sorry, late evening and from mobile atm.

I am interested in your townplay, scumplay, the differences you perceive between them, your strong points and your weak points. Not being able to verify your claims will make this info less useful, but not entirely useless.

[Farkran]

Spoiler: Personal opinions/perceptions of my play

As town, I'm good at being active. I'm bad at motivating others to do the same. I'm very bad at reads, and in particular I have a bad habit of sticking to a single thing. This works really well when it's correct, really terribly when it doesn't. To make this worse, recognizing it and trying to correct for it ingame seems a 50/50 for bad results, making me feel stupid when I do. I can be very irritable if I think someone is being condescending. I was always the youngest in every group growing up, and it's an artifact that has stuck even as I've grown older.

As scum, I often have a dilemma in that I really don't take much pride or joy in bringing out the worst in others, but consider it the easiest way to win. I don't think in terms of trying to get people to townread me or avoiding a lynch except as a means to an end; I just think of the number of mislynches we need and how to get there. I think this is different than most people who have delusions of grandeur, thinking that the best scumplayers are the ones with the EPIC THREE WAY HARDCARRY. I'm very good at setting my teammates up well and in standardizing my tone, attitudes, and reasoning; differences are invented in the course of new towngames but I make sure to cash them in strategically. It is very difficult for me to stay motivated and engaged with a game as scum unless I consider it especially challenging: I am more inclined to just sit back and let the town beat itself, waiting for another game where I flip town. I manage to stay about as active as I do when town, but it's usually spent miserable. If I had to guess what a different weakness is, it's that I'm transparently opportunistic when I feel assured that people aren't paying attention.

In general, I think people are too selfish in their play. I never live up to it, but I dream of being an amplifier: As town, for the strengths of my partners. As scum, for the same but also for the worst traits of the town.

A lot of these attitudes are pretty apparent this game: Of course my scum description is the antithesis of how I've been this game! I think a healthier balance might be better but it's no surprise the fears I have for my own play and those of the town more broadly are exactly the ones I'm obsessing over internally

I know this is an oversimplification of what you said, but it pretty much boils down to "i am very active as town, i tend to lurk as scum". There are other differences in terms of

what

you do when you are active and what you try to fake when playing scum, but ultimately this is a declaration of being sortable by post count. Of course i mean no offense, should you flip town it means the differences between your town and scum play are what you really perceive when doing introspective analysis - should you flip scum, you probably have pointed out what you think OTHERS may believe is true. From this perspective, your description is not entirely satisfying. "Active when town, lurker when scum" sounds like a definition by the manual. A lot of people -subconsciously- play like that, and they do not actually realize it - otherwise, they would do a far better job faking their activity when rolling scum. The profile i have drawn for you is

quite

similar to my own, in that i am also very active and efforting as town... however, if you have the time and will to effort as town, you'll find that will even as scum. That's what i do, and what i expect you would do: there's no reason why you wouldn't, especially if you are aware that it will get you scumreaded.

Porting it into this game, it seems you are mid-road in terms of activity. The previous paragraph is purely psychological, whereas adding the statistical element in a cross-analysis of your slot, it seems you are caring enough to show your presence, answering most if not all posts directed to you (this is not particularly common in mafia games) and also going out of your way to contribute with original posts. Despite that, you replaced in 5 days before me - roughly a week after game start - yet we have almost the same post count at this moment. Would you townread or scumread yourself based on this?

Lastly, adding in historical analysis, these are what pinged me most:

As a player, I have two mostly complementary but occasionally opposing motivations. First, I find mafia aesthetically pleasing and view it as a work of art. The best play in my book are the things that I find subjectively beautiful:

I love plans that come together, masterful improvisation in the face of them falling apart, clever insights and teamwork

like a well-oiled machine. Second,

I am fiercely competitive and have a relentless drive to win

. Generally, I would rather lose a game that pushed me and my friends to the limit rather than win a snoozefest, but the tradeoff is different for every game!

This really does not fit with your dislike of common scumgames. I tend to believe this more than your recent description - your original introduction was made in a much more relaxed gamestate, fitting with your "let town die" mindset when playing scum, contrasting with the current pagebursts allowed by the recently replaced-in players.

Let's wind that back a bit. My biggest weakness as a player is that

my attitude isn't as conducive to playing cooperatively as I'd like

. In particular, anytime I sense condescension I tend to bite. I can't think of any reads or thoughts in particular I want to ask you about right now Amrun, but I'll revisit after I catch up with Chara/alimdia and see if I can think of something.

Again, this doesn't particularly match what you described just now. You did mention that condescendence irritates you, but that's sounds like a description staple - you also said you love to bolster your teammates, coordinate complex plans, and have a dislike for primadonnas.

Have no fear, that was the extent of my mechanical comments for the most part. My stance is that we should spare Day 1 for sure, and 3/4 times overall. My preference is to have FN claim Day 1/Day 2. That's it. I think for the most part people know that this is the "correct in a mechanical vacuum" play, what we do is up to us.

Sermons are a great way to put people to sleep and keep town out of the game.

I think i don't need to say that you are one of the greatest offenders with regard to wallposts. I am another, but i do not think that wallposts are inherently bad - that's a significant difference in terms of ideal behavior display.

We have 3 days. This town is completely lethargic, and these almost invariably lead to losses. I'm trying to strike a balance with giving content for people to engage with while keeping the game accessible and digestible for others to take up the torch.

We have two players who have not even vaguely attempted to play the game in a week and a half. I'm about ready to give up on sparing and move to lynching, either to force them to get content or to let us move forward with players who want to be here, or at least understand that they have a duty to their fellow players to participate.

I hope Pine follows through on the above, but this needs to happen now, not later.

So, i read this as a testament to your will to lynch lurker slots when sparing does not look like an option. In a conclusive argument regarding your stance, i would expect that you would at least have placed a FIGHT vote on one of the lurker slots - if anything, to put pressure. My slot was being heavily wagoned and it might be consistent for you to dodge it, maybe even in an effort to promote your sparing strategy, but i don't see any reason for you to dodge Pine's, even less so than dodging Nacho's.

Ultimately, i don't see any reason to townread you, sheep your votes or your strategy altogether. This is true regardless of my aversion to sparing in general. If i had to scumread you, though, it would be in a world where i hunt for deepwolves. This is a game where i will probably find your partner first, if you are scum - again, unless you manage to spare him first. As i said, i will keep an eye to your sparing targets, and to be honest i don't particularly fancy having you in lylo.

[out of game note: i am greatly enjoying playing with you. I was not lying when i said our player profiles are a close match.]

[Farkran]

henlo

I'll try to get to reading stuff soon, any suggestions?

Nacho, Chara, Amrun, and your updated opinion on psyche, maybe? Also almidia. And cast a vote.

[Farkran]

i'm still reading but:
really very town: Hectic, Replica
townish: Chemist, Sujimichi, Amrun
leftovers: alimdia, Psyche, Sherlock, Nacho
scum?: Farkran

i hestitate to dismiss Sujimichi and Amrun entirely as TvT, and i think i ultimately feel better about Suji for town over Amrun.

henlo

I'll try to get to reading stuff soon, any suggestions?

Farkran and Nacho's ISOs? and perhaps Replica.

Amrun's gone up for me a bit as well. lost the post while writing but the argument with Replica really hit me, as both someone who responds quickly without reading well occasionally, or who doesn't have time to look over things 100%. i know it's not fully AI because it's about out of game factors and Amrun's style/capability to post, but i like how the discussion came about if that makes sense.

I take it as you are now reading Suji vs Amrun as TvT and Hectic as T. Where does this leave Replica?

Also why is chemist up there and Nacho down there? Can you point me to the reasons why those two are in two separate tiers from your POV?

[Farkran]

My reads work in place of a hurt vote without the danger of others trying to use it to start wagons. No thanks.

This line in particular is the most dangerous thing you have slipped out so far. This means that you don't trust your own reads enough to see them fulfill their purpose. "The

DANGER

of others trying to use it to start wagons"? What's up with that thought process? You have scumreads because you want to remove scum. You use wagons to remove scum. You are NOT afraid of people wagoning your scumreads - you WANT them to, that's the purpose of scumreading someone.

No way i believe this. I don't buy that you put "being fiercely competitive and having a relentless drive to win" in the same line as "i am so afraid that my reads are wrong that i don't even want to risk putting weight into them", especially when you have such strong conviction about sparing being the absolute best strategy and about our spare targets being correct, without even having a flip to confirm. This thought process is conveniently exploited to validate any past, present or future error that you make in this game, which means you will likely place your partner as one of your sparing targets during the course of the match.

I am almost confident Replica is scum already. If i am correct, it's likely with a player he's heavily townreading. If not exactly hectic, maybe Chara was the scum on my wagon. Or Psyche again.

@Replica townreaders (except Replica himself): is there any reason i should townread Replica, besides lengthy posts and apparent internal consistency (except the recent self-description)? I'd like to avoid embarking myself on a vanity wagon 32 hours from deadline, but if there is any interest, my lynchpool is now {Replica, Psyche, Chemist}. I will never spare hectic today unless we are LITERALLY 10 minutes from deadline and i am the only active player around to hammer. I suggest no one doesn't either.

[Farkran]

Farkran: Replica has already expressed a strong desire to Spare day 1 due to considering it optimal. so given that... is it really strange to avoid voting to Fight?

Not particularly. But the reason stated is "it is dangerous to cast a fight vote because other people could use it to create a wagon." This is in stark contrast with his profile of an above average self-esteem person, displayed in lines like "i do not have fun as scum because it is too easy", and even more in contrast with "i am strongly convinced my strategy is optimal and my townreads are correct". That's the problem.

Either you are sure of yourself or you aren't, i don't buy that you can be halfway around it like he said. The reason why replica does not want to fight is because he can conveniently place his partner among the spares, and this even fits with his proposed 3/1 strategy (which incidentally is the WORST POSSIBLE OUTCOME for town if there is mafia among the spared players, with 2 unflipped kills from which we'll get no info at all).

Pedit: ...eh. If there is a target to spare, it's suji now, not hectic. Maybe sherlock. Those suddenly became my highest townreads too, and for good reason. @psyche why the other names on your list, though? I don't buy that you are confident enough on this game without having any scumread.

[Farkran]

Actually i might like psyche more than replica now. However:

@Psyche what do you think of replica? So far you have expressed an opinion on pretty much all slots, some more in-depth, some just a mention, but you literally never talked about replica in your entire ISO (which i admit, is short).

[Farkran]

Hmm... very wary of psyche nullread on replica... his posts are improved, though. I could still buy a Psyche/replica solve, so i think i'm leaving my hurt vote there.

@Amrun why almidia? I... mostly skipped almidia. Can i get a scumcase? I'll verify later - i'd place almidia in the same rank as nacho now, i.e. i'd like to talk to them but they're nowhere to be found.

[Farkran]

if u turn out to be scum amrum i will experience a catharsis unheard of since st paul was restored the power of sight

What do you mean with this? You commented Amrun as "hmm" in your readlist, and she wasn't included in your spare list

[Farkran]

i wonder if i could compute an EV comparing a blind spare strategy against a blind lynch strategy and from there try to guess the relative value of differently confident townreads against differently confident scumreads in this game

meh there's no way i get that done before deadline

Results are balanced, but that's not the point - the lack of flip info and therefore no VCA is the problem. Rewards are not worth giving up info - in most cases, it only requires 1 spared mafia to lead to catastrophical results such as 1-spared and 3-spared. 4-spared is not fancy either, if i understand correctly what the princess role involves.

Misfighting town on the other hand, even assuming we will do very poorly, provides us with 4 failures (11p > 9p > 7p > 5p lylo), with an instant victory in case of 2 successful fights (same as 4 successful spares).

[Farkran]

who needs information with a D1 this juicy

Mafia has night kills, you know. And no protection available. Either suji or sherlock are dying tonight, regardless of how we decide to end the day. If hectic is actually town, he's going to die soon as well. Even if we can line up exactly 4 town players to spare, by day 3-4 that list is going to be drastically different than today's. And that's where this strategy becomes a catastrophical failure, because the chances of sparing mafia will be vastly higher and we will have zero info to work with besides NKA.

Even if we switch from spare to fight in d3, achieving a 2-2 scenario, it's not better than having lynched the two previous days.

[Farkran]

Suppose we just keep going until the well of we're-never-gonna-lynch-these-dudes townreads is dry and then get back to lynching. Are we really in a worse state than if we lynched our (frankly) much weaker scumreads in all that time?

That's not a rhetorical question, I'm either bad or lazy at math or both.

Yes, because 1. No info, 2. Chance to have already spared scum.

[Farkran]

Either suji or sherlock are dying tonight, regardless of how we decide to end the day.

I do not really like this comment at all as it either reflects a subconscious understanding or Farkran assumes to know what Mafia's plan is to be. Even if one supposes that both myself and SherlockHolmes are universally read as Town, there are reasons why we would not be the targeted kill for tonight. I may be reading too much into it, but it is not a good comment.

No, there aren't. Unless you planned that comment ahead of time and you are specifically scum together with sherlock. Which is as unlikely as unlikely can get.

And that's not even the point - replace suji and sherlock with two unanimously consensus townreads named player A and B. There's no protection = one of them dies tonight. And this is why sparing is bad.

[Farkran]

I also do not like that Farkran has given up on his theory and hard push that there was Mafia on his wagon and he was being pushed as an easy, "lurker" mislynch. It makes me think that he never genuinely believed that to be the case.

691

[Farkran]

Could you explain why confirmed Masons and Innocent Children in the absence of protective roles (living or non-existent) make it to the endgame on occasion then?

This only happens in Normals or otherwise closed setups where scum is afraid of protectives, although they may not exist in the first place - you only learn this postgame or after massclaims. Or, when said massclaims (or rolecop results, or anything else of the sort) reveal the existance of more threatening roles such as investigatives or vigilantes.

If you have ever seen a game where an IC is not killed within the circumstances i described, please point it out - i think the mafia there was just bad.

[Farkran]

I read the post, Farkran, thank you. It comes across as more of a required explanation to shift your viewpoint than a genuine re-evaluation of your viewpoint as your reasons for not shifting your focus to one of the other three are weak.

Ok, different angle: where is my scum motivation in switching my lynchpool of players to those offwagon? Assuming i am scum, i can have one partner bussing me on wagon. Remove you as conftown, that leaves two players i would have no issues pushing as mislynches.

[Farkran]

On re-evaluation, my stances have changed somewhat. If we are Fighting today, I would like to Fight Farkran or Amrun. If we are Sparing, I would like to Spare myself. I have decided I do not want to Spare anyone else. I believe I prefer Fighting my two preferred Fights over Sparing today, but I prefer Sparing over Fighting anyone else.

HURT: Amrun

Thanks. I fully support the fighting resolution, although neither of your suggested targets are my best guesses at this point. I kinda want replica now.

While you are here as an IC, suji, could you lay out your reasons why you picked exactly those two for your lynchpool?

[Farkran]

On re-evaluation, my stances have changed somewhat. If we are Fighting today, I would like to Fight Farkran or Amrun. If we are Sparing, I would like to Spare myself. I have decided I do not want to Spare anyone else. I believe I prefer Fighting my two preferred Fights over Sparing today, but I prefer Sparing over Fighting anyone else.

HURT: Amrun

Thanks. I fully support the fighting resolution, although neither of your suggested targets are my best guesses at this point. I kinda want replica now.

While you are here as an IC, suji, could you lay out your reasons why you picked exactly those two for your lynchpool?

Sorry, let me rephrase. I heard your scumcases. I meant to say why are you townreading the others more than us, mostly. i.e. why are replica, psyche, chemist and maybe almidia town?

[Farkran]

I read the post, Farkran, thank you. It comes across as more of a required explanation to shift your viewpoint than a genuine re-evaluation of your viewpoint as your reasons for not shifting your focus to one of the other three are weak.

Ok, different angle: where is my scum motivation in switching my lynchpool of players to those offwagon? Assuming i am scum, i can have one partner bussing me on wagon. Remove you as conftown, that leaves two players i would have no issues pushing as mislynches.

I do not believe you would successfully

push anyone on that list as a mislynch other than myself

, and you have been given the opportunity to move elsewhere (see: voting with Amrun to "hold her accountable").

Oh, i lost this in the pedits.

Bolded: what makes you think you were the weak link in that group, though? And what makes you think everyone else in that group is a mislynch? I mean, you are voting Amrun yourself - are you seeing Fark/Amrun as a solve? Moreover - what makes psyche more likely a successful lynch than Nacho, Chara or Amrun?

[Farkran]

While you are here as an IC, suji, could you lay out your reasons why you picked exactly those two for your lynchpool?

hey...
what do you mean by IC...?
did he claim FN...?

I just can't believe suji is able to pull such a natural thing as 642. I just believe that. And sherlock for pointing it out - as i said, they would have to be exactly scum together to pull up such a play, and i find it extremely unplausible.

[Farkran]

I read the post, Farkran, thank you. It comes across as more of a required explanation to shift your viewpoint than a genuine re-evaluation of your viewpoint as your reasons for not shifting your focus to one of the other three are weak.

Ok, different angle: where is my scum motivation in switching my lynchpool of players to those offwagon? Assuming i am scum, i can have one partner bussing me on wagon. Remove you as conftown, that leaves two players i would have no issues pushing as mislynches.

I do not believe you would successfully

push anyone on that list as a mislynch other than myself

, and you have been given the opportunity to move elsewhere (see: voting with Amrun to "hold her accountable").

Oh, i lost this in the pedits.

Bolded: what makes you think you were the weak link in that group, though? And what makes you think everyone else in that group is a mislynch? I mean, you are voting Amrun yourself - are you seeing Fark/Amrun as a solve? Moreover - what makes psyche more likely a successful lynch than Nacho, Chara or Amrun?

I do not understand your last question.

I mean, what makes psyche an easier mislynch than Nacho, Chara or Amrun? Looking at the gamestate, i'd be more inclined to believe Nacho would be an easier mislynch, given the amount of consensus scumread around the two slots. This was probably more true several pages ago though, but even then that was one of my reasons to townlean nacho. Look at players progression towards his slot - you, Replica, Chara, sherlock, all changed their read on Nacho starting when he stopped being active.

On the other hand, a psyche lynch was being hard-resisted by chemist, replica (who, besides not being willing to fight, was also scumleaning nacho), you, and to some extent Chara, despite being a lurker replaced into a lurker slot. The situation has improved since psyche has been pressured, and while his posts have improved, the timing on which this happened is not town indicative. I could associate Psyche with many players out there, not just those who were soft or hard-defending him.

That said, i still kinda want Replica now.

[Farkran]

Also, spaghetti all'arrabbiata is an italian recipe!

If i absolutely had to compromise on a spare, on threat of a no-action resolution today, i'm fine with sparing Sujimichi or sherlock. Well, on threat of that, i would be fine with anything. But i strongly, strongly, strongly suggest that we compromise on a fight, or if this is absolutely out of question, a spare on one of those two.

[Farkran]

I mean, what makes psyche an easier mislynch than Nacho, Chara or Amrun? Looking at the gamestate, i'd be more inclined to believe Nacho would be an easier mislynch, given the amount of consensus scumread around the two slots. This was probably more true several pages ago though, but even then that was one of my reasons to townlean nacho. Look at players progression towards his slot - you, Replica, Chara, sherlock, all changed their read on Nacho starting when he stopped being active.

And, if you'll notice, all players have shifted away from Nachomamma8 once his limited activity was explicitly brought to light.

...yeah, which is much more indicative of opportunism from those players, rather than of scum!nacho, wouldn't you agree? I am going from memory though, i am not sure if all those players started scumreading nacho when he went away, rather than having an already existing scumread of him before that event.

On the other hand, a psyche lynch was being hard-resisted by chemist, replica (who, besides not being willing to fight, was also scumleaning nacho), you, and to some extent Chara, despite being a lurker replaced into a lurker slot.

I did not resist a Pine/Psych Fight. In fact, I explicitly stated that I would Fight that slot at the same time that I said I did not like your entrance (see: post 395. Replica may have stated a scum lean on Nachmamma8, however, he was not willing to Fight, so that does not have importance to this. I do not believe that Chemist1422 has strongly done anything this game, and Chara has Psyche in her pool of "leftovers" similar to Nachomamma8.

True enough about you, and it doesn't really matter now that i no longer scumread you. Still, when you compare two lurker slots and you say you're going to fight one, but assert you dislike the other... that does sound like a soft-defense, or at least a weak read you'd not be willing to put your weight on. Chemist has not done much, but he has been whiteknighting the lurkers (343 and more), which is something that pings me the wrong way in this gamestate and i can see it as a generalized defense of his partner - of course it would sound better than "hey, do not vote pine, but i'm perfectly fine with asriel". I also scumreaded chemist in that magireco game though, so it may be just chemist - and that's why i would like (have liked?) to flip Psyche first in that duo. To the other end of the spectrum is Chara, who is doing the opposite and actually asserting that "Farkran is bad, but Psyche is almost ok". I dislike nullreads on scummy slots, that's how you usually find scumpartners, and Psyche is a common denominator.

I am convincing myself to stay on psyche again.

[Farkran]

My reads work in place of a hurt vote without the danger of others trying to use it to start wagons. No thanks.

This line in particular is the most dangerous thing you have slipped out so far. This means that you don't trust your own reads enough to see them fulfill their purpose. "The

DANGER

of others trying to use it to start wagons"? What's up with that thought process? You have scumreads because you want to remove scum. You use wagons to remove scum. You are NOT afraid of people wagoning your scumreads - you WANT them to, that's the purpose of scumreading someone.

No way i believe this. I don't buy that you put "being fiercely competitive and having a relentless drive to win" in the same line as "i am so afraid that my reads are wrong that i don't even want to risk putting weight into them", especially when you have such strong conviction about sparing being the absolute best strategy and about our spare targets being correct, without even having a flip to confirm. This thought process is conveniently exploited to validate any past, present or future error that you make in this game, which means you will likely place your partner as one of your sparing targets during the course of the match.

This post is really awful and to me is blatantly working backwards.

Not an argument, this is free shade.

I'll start in reverse, with the asserted conflict that I can't have an ego and be relentlessly competitive while simultaneously distrusting my own reads. Possessing a characteristic is not the same as thinking it a strength. I have spoken at length this game about the necessity of recognizing one's flaws and not letting them overtake you. My style of playing scum is literally taking advantage of people who don't.

This is applied to "Why won't Replica try to lynch their scumreads?". "You don't trust your scumreads enough to see them fullfill their purpose...You have scumreads because you want to remove scum" is willfully missing the point of how I view this game; lynching scum in this game is my Plan B. My scumreads exist so that I can

select town correctly

. I have

absolutely no intention

of removing scum this game except as a last resort and perhaps on Day 4. Of course I don't want a wagon to start or for people to perceive that a lynch has become marginally more possible by seeing me place a hurt vote. #685 and #689 both make clear that while I'll push and scumread Nacho, I adamantly oppose his lynch today.

Again, no. You cannot simultaneously have a profile of high self-esteem, high level of certainty townreads while doubting your scumreads so much that you call wagoning on them "dangerous" and actively impair other players from doing by denying your vote. This is not about optimal strategy, this is about the immense gap in the amount of faith you place in your townreads as opposed to the amount you place in your scumreads. You cannot be simultaneously certain that we are going to spare 3 non-scum players and extremely unsure of your scumreads. This does not make any sense. If you believe your scumreads are weak and likely wrong, you should also assume that at least SOME of your townreads could be wrong.

You double down on this here:

the reason stated is "it is dangerous to cast a fight vote because other people could use it to create a wagon." This is in stark contrast with his profile of an above average self-esteem person, displayed in lines like "i do not have fun as scum because it is too easy", and even more in contrast with "i am strongly convinced my strategy is optimal and my townreads are correct". That's the problem.

To you, the fact that I possess an ego seems to preclude my having any recognition or sincere attempt to fix it. The latter characterization is blatantly awful; you yourself have hounded how I keep saying that I distrust my reads. My strategy is optimal to me

precisely

because I don't trust my reads on two fronts. The first is that my statement that if we lynch, it should be later rather than sooner, and that if we spare, it should be sooner rather than later. This is to leverage probability, and is made even more explicit,

in the context of me being bad at townreads

in #379. The second is that even if I am so bad that my reads might as well be random...3/4 spares wins me more games. There is absolutely no dependency or even displayed thinking that I am confident in my townreads but not my scumreads like you're trying to assert here.

3/4 spares wins you more games

when you are correct. Otherwise, it's a disaster.

To reiterate: 1. you cannot assume a strategy is optimal based on random results only, this is a very flawed premise in a social game led by living people; 2. you cannot assume your strategy is optimal when your displayed certainty is contradicting itself.

This seems like a very intentional attempt to exploit the gap between self-perceptions and reality, that you absolutely know exists for every one of us, rather than an earnest attempt at understanding how those fears/ideals have manifested this game.

More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.

Enough of this. HURT: Replica i don't even care if this is vanity, Replica is scum.

[Farkran]

i'm more confident in sparing Hectic than Sujimichi or Sherlock.

Nonsense.

being confident in townreads =/= having the same confidence in scumreads or wanting to pursue them.
i don't like Farkran's angle here at all and i don't find it a contradiction in the first place. Replica said as much already about why they want to spare and you acknowledged that. i also can't conceive of what scum Replica would achieve by discrediting their own scumreads or themself, except as a way to lower responsibility for mislynches. but they aren't going for mislynches.

How can you even think someone can be SO distrustful in their scumreads and at the same time believing in their townreads hard enough to base their entire gamesolve on that? How is it not a contradiction? If your scumreads are shit-level of wrong, the chance that you are also wrong on your townreads rises dramatically. How is everyone failing to understand that? Having 2/11 odds to spare town means nothing - just look at statistics. Look at how many times players have been efficient enough to lynch scum d1 or d2. Random values are not suit for human-made decisions and one should never base a strategy on them - especially when the random-based EV is like ~7% higher. I haven't even run the math on them, i have no reason to assume Replica reported incorrect results even if he's scum - it's just a plain futile motive to push for a catastrophical failure in favor of scum.

pedit:

i find the denial of hammering the spare to be still significant, along with the followup

. Sujimichi is not a bad choice either, but i'd rather be more sure than not with something like this, and it's similar with Sherlock. there's the possibility of scum making one big towny move, but i find Hectic being scum and making the decisions he has to be much less likely.

I don't know if the bolded is directed to me, but in case it is, it's a misrep. I explicitly said i would compromise on pretty much anything if i am the last active player 10 minutes from deadline.

[Farkran]

Again, no. You cannot simultaneously have a profile of high self-esteem, high level of certainty townreads while doubting your scumreads so much that you call wagoning on them "dangerous" and actively impair other players from doing by denying your vote. This is not about optimal strategy, this is about the immense gap in the amount of faith you place in your townreads as opposed to the amount you place in your scumreads. You cannot be simultaneously certain that we are going to spare 3 non-scum players and extremely unsure of your scumreads. This does not make any sense. If you believe your scumreads are weak and likely wrong, you should also assume that at least SOME of your townreads could be wrong.

what? of course you can. it's the entire conceit behind townhunting as a process.

and it's also just as possible to be more certain in one read than another than want to pursue that. i can be 100% certain in a townread and unsure of the rest of the playerlist.
that's just how reads work. are you not allowed to be confident in one read if you haven't completely solved the game yet?

My point has nothing to do with what townhunt is about. My point is that one cannot simultaneously display godlike levels of certainty on his townreads and shitlevel of certainty on his scumreads. The gap is too high. This is what makes replica scummy, not the decision to spare over fight, or the decision to spare player X instead of player Y.

[Farkran]

More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.

HURT: Farkran

the solidity of your theory or the consistency of your explanation has little to do with your towniness. it does have everything to do with scum who try to be correct in order to avoid being caught in a contradiction.

it also doesn't make any sense if you scumread Replica to word it this way. it's like you're saying if town Replica should find your argument sound, when the point of what you're saying is that they're scum.
that's not quite exactly what i mean but i hope it comes across.

Yeah, sure. I'm being extra-careful to bring good arguments to the table, when everything i have been saying has mostly been shot down by the spare lovers for no reason at all, despite them being super certain of being correct on their townreads, but none wants to put any actual weight on their scumreads. This is true for Replica as it is for you and Psyche. And possibly hectic too. I probably need to sleep over it, but i'm honestly inclined to think we can find the full scumteam here, and two players being simply very wrong and pocketed so deep they cannot see the light of the sun.

[Farkran]

Farkran... why are you ignoring me...?
you said Sujimichi is naught but an IC to you...
if you are so confident on him... then why are you FIGHTING people rather than SPARING him...?

i think scum!Farkran could've possibly went overboard when describing Sujimichi earlier... and now he's ignoring me because he can't explain why he'd FIGHT over SPARING someone he considers an IC...
784
bye...

On re-evaluation, my stances have changed somewhat. If we are Fighting today, I would like to Fight Farkran or Amrun. If we are Sparing, I would like to Spare myself. I have decided I do not want to Spare anyone else. I believe I prefer Fighting my two preferred Fights over Sparing today, but I prefer Sparing over Fighting anyone else.

HURT: Amrun

Thanks. I fully support the fighting resolution, although neither of your suggested targets are my best guesses at this point. I kinda want replica now.

While you are here as an IC, suji, could you lay out your reasons why you picked exactly those two for your lynchpool?

in fact... you worded it like he's an IC who's gonna be SPARED/nightkilled...
why do you ever FIGHT someone over SPARING if you think that...?

[Farkran]

I pressed submit accidentally, i wanted to reply to Hectic but i can't keep up with the pace and i hate it being this close to deadline because the current gamestate does not make any sense. Bear with me hectic, i'm going to answer you in a short while

[Farkran]

Farkran... why are you ignoring me...?
you said Sujimichi is naught but an IC to you...
if you are so confident on him... then why are you FIGHTING people rather than SPARING him...?

i think scum!Farkran could've possibly went overboard when describing Sujimichi earlier... and now he's ignoring me because he can't explain why he'd FIGHT over SPARING someone he considers an IC...
784
bye...

On re-evaluation, my stances have changed somewhat. If we are Fighting today, I would like to Fight Farkran or Amrun. If we are Sparing, I would like to Spare myself. I have decided I do not want to Spare anyone else. I believe I prefer Fighting my two preferred Fights over Sparing today, but I prefer Sparing over Fighting anyone else.

HURT: Amrun

Thanks. I fully support the fighting resolution, although neither of your suggested targets are my best guesses at this point. I kinda want replica now.

While you are here as an IC, suji, could you lay out your reasons why you picked exactly those two for your lynchpool?

in fact... you worded it like he's an IC who's gonna be SPARED/nightkilled...
why do you ever FIGHT someone over SPARING if you think that...?

I am not ignoring you. I do think Sujimichi is pretty much IC for that townslip in the other game, but i also think using this day to spare him is a waste. As i said somewhere earlier in my ISO, spared players are not going to live forever. Sujimichi is just going to be killed exactly the night after we enter New Home. Mafia does not lose the ability to nightkill in the second phase of the game. Why are renouncing a flip in favor of delaying the death of a town player? Because this is not about saving sujimichi, or any other conftown we may find along the road. Unless we can spare EXACTLY 4 TOWN PLAYERS, every other scenario implies the removal of two players chosen by the mafia among the unspared pool, then the night kills just restart. The whole sparing route, unless we find exactly 4 town players, is bad.

[Farkran]

You have a bucket of balls.

You have two options:

1) You can draw 4 balls, and they have a 30% chance of being all black. You win if they are.
2) You can draw 6 balls, and they have a 20% chance of containing two that are white. You win if they are.

You pick 1. "Wow, are you that confident in being able to identify the balls that are black by touch?"

As much as i love being compared to a ball in a bucket, this does not and will never apply to a social game made by living, sentient beings. I said multiple times that the EV are comparable - the wrong premises are that 1. Probability alone is not a good meter to discern an optimal strategy; 2. the risk/benefit ratio is horribly high.

I will give you a counter-example:
1) You can draw 4 balls, they have 30% chance of being all black. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 1 million if they aren't.
2) You can draw 6 balls, they have 20% chance of containing two that are white. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 2 dollars if they aren't.

Now tell me you still pick option 1.

[Farkran]

I am the Friendly Neighbor.

Awesome - that's one less conftown we can put in the sparing pool. Our chances to win are rising by the minute.

Yeah, i'm being sarcastic. Perhaps a bit too much. I am salty about this whole setup spec debate.

Eh, yeah. Sorry suji, it's not even your fault. I think i have crossed the line.

[Farkran]

HEAL: Sujimichi

At this point, we should just spare Sujimichi.


I’m not liking Farkran’s most recent contributions. I do think his theory is right about fighting being superior due to the risk of an incorrect spare. But this close to deadline, at this low level of consensus, sparing Sujimichi is the best move I think.

I also didn’t like Chara saying he’d spare Hectic over Sujimichi/Sherlock. Just, what?

...and it's when you find yourself in deep agreement with a player who has just changed her read of you to a scumread, that you know you need to take a break.

Seriously, i don't even know what to say anymore. How many is suji's spare wagon now?

[Farkran]

i'm lost on the gambling odds.
i think Farkran is scum for reasons besides disagreeing about optimal strategy, and rather not wanting to spare someone he considers an IC (but then being upset that the FN claimed), along with the reliance on being logically right and the weirdness to the Replica read in general.

pedit: no problem at all, Amrun. as long as you try i appreciate it.

I am being upset that a player who was already IC to me is ALSO the FN, but feel free to keep up with the gratuitous shade.

[Farkran]

As much as i love being compared to a ball in a bucket, this does not and will never apply to a social game made by living, sentient beings. I said multiple times that the EV are comparable - the wrong premises are that 1. Probability alone is not a good meter to discern an optimal strategy; 2. the risk/benefit ratio is horribly high.

I will give you a counter-example:
1) You can draw 4 balls, they have 30% chance of being all black. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 1 million if they aren't.
2) You can draw 6 balls, they have 20% chance of containing two that are white. You gain 1 dollar if they are, you lose 2 dollars if they aren't.

Now tell me you still pick option 1.

I didn't include the betting terms to keep it simple. Since you insist, the numbers actually do matter here.

We're wagering to try to win a single game, keeping hold of the single dollar in our hand, not risking our savings: The outcome of the game is the only thing at stake.

1) You can draw 4 balls, they have 27% chance of being all black. You win if they are. If they aren't, you have one chance to draw a white ball at 20% odds.*
2) You can draw 6 balls, they have a 36% chance of containing two that are white. If they aren't, you lose immediately.

*This simplifies to a 41.6% chance

You pick 1. Does this imply that you have a method to ensure they are all black?

No, but your example implies that i have no means other than RNG to determine if they are all black. Or better yet, that i have no means to raise my odds of catching the two white balls in the other scenario.

Also, my example is only worth if you think the outcome of this game is important to you (hence why i exaggerated it by saying 1 million dollars - obviously it has nothing to do with our irl savings). If the outcome of the game has no importance to you, that's another pair of shoes - but again, given your introduction as a "fiercely competitive, etc" player, i don't believe this is the case. I just think you are scum.

I skipped at least half of the posts in the last two pages though, because i honestly can't keep up with the pace and i am salty because i am being cornered for what is to me the best course of actions to take in this game. This discussion has probably no more beneficial points to bring to the table, so, let me ask again:

How many left to spare Suji?

[Farkran]

ah, i misunderstood that.
still, i don't see why you would want the FN to spare later but not to spare Suji now (before you knew they were the same).

I never said i would spare the FN anyways, i believe i explicity stated i would never spare anyone. However, having 3 ICs (or at least two ICs and a significantly high townread in the sherlock slot) is way better than having only two because the FN overlaps with suji. I did explain how we would need many more ICs than we have days to spare them, because of the existence of night kills.

[Farkran]

Agree, gambling odds are a sideshow, the imprecision/reductions of the reasoning causing more confusion than needed. TL:DR: Sparing over lynching has a higher town win % in an RNG machine. This is directly analogous to casino games. Betting on higher EVs doesn't imply you believe yourself especially skilled at the game of choice.

Awful part was the working backwards and the conflating ego/weaknesses with the requirement that I must view them as positives and that acknowledging my weaknesses and working on them is a scumtell.

It's aiming to exploit the existence of a gap between my fears/ideals and my reality, that I am neither the player of my dreams nor one ruled by my worst traits, and presupposing its existence is scum. It's not aiming to investigate or ponder what it means, what dilemmas I face when playing, or how I choose to handle these strengths and weaknesses.

The EV is only marginally higher, and besides, in a game of roulette you cannot improve your chances to guess the next number correct based on your knowledge of the previously rolled number. In mafia, you can.

As for the rest of my argument, i still think there is no way you can place THAT much certainty on your townreads while simultaneously being THAT much afraid that you are wrong on your scumreads. It just doesn't hold up. The gap is too high. And this is a scumtell, because getting one spare wrong is way worse than getting one (or even a couple) fight wrong.

I am tired. I will parse a votecount on suji by myself. Assuming we spare him, independently of my contribution, what are we going to do in the next days?

[Farkran]

Spare Votecount 1.10

Sujimichi ----------------------------

(1)

Psyche

HEAL: Sujimichi

HEAL: Sujimichi

HEAL: Sujimichi

HEAL: Sujimichi

L-1 i think

[Farkran]

is that the logical proposition "If someone bets on a game with a higher random EV, they must be more confident in their ability in that game" is FALSE

Yes, that is false, and it's also not the point of my argument.

The points of my argument are that nobody should bet on a mafia game assuming that it is comparable to a game of roulette or dices. If anything, it's more comparable to a game of poker - guess what, the player with the strongest hand is never systematically the one who wins the match. Therefore, you should not assume your (or other people's) reads have random EVs. You should take into account many more factors, and that is where the premise of "i am bad at doing reads" conflicts with "i think i am going to win this game by choosing the mathematically optimal strategy". Besides, the risk/benefit ratio does not even make it optimal from a mathematical standpoint either, because sparing scum is way worse than fighting town. This is the last time i repeat myself:

The EV is only marginally higher, and besides, in a game of roulette you cannot improve your chances to guess the next number correct based on your knowledge of the previously rolled number. In mafia, you can.

[ndr: that is, unless you remove that ability on purpose by renouncing information for having a 7% higher EV on a non-random based game]

Now i want to disengage from this because it's no longer useful. I will only answer further questions if asked by different people and if they are relevant to winning this game rather than just asserting who has the better logic -which is often not indicative of scumminess, depends case by case - in this case, i still believe Replica is using math to conceal his scum agenda where he will probably insert his scum partner in the spare pool one of the next days.

That being said, if i counted Psyche wrong, it's L-2. But i think Psyche is more than willing to spare suji if everyone else agrees. Since even the last standing fight promoters (tu quoque, amrun) have given up on trying, and given that sujimichi is now pretty much a true, almost modconfirmed IC, i don't see anything left to do for me but to accept it. I too would love to wait for nacho and almidia to give their feedback on the current situation.

[Farkran]

HEAL: Sujimichi

At this point, we should just spare Sujimichi.


I’m not liking Farkran’s most recent contributions. I do think his theory is right about fighting being superior due to the risk of an incorrect spare. But this close to deadline, at this low level of consensus, sparing Sujimichi is the best move I think.

I also didn’t like Chara saying he’d spare Hectic over Sujimichi/Sherlock. Just, what?

Actually, before i go to bed (2 am), i have a question for you, amrun.

Since you gave up pushing for a fight resolution, i assume you are going to work with pre-flip associatives in this game. If i am scum, who am i partner with? If Chara is scum, who is it partner with?

[Farkran]

Well, i'm not going to let go if you don't, at least not if you use my disengagement to keep casting shade towards me by misrepping, misunderstanding or twisting my words on purpose.

Man, I wonder why it is you're so desperate to get out of this and keep trying to switch the ground to discussion over EV vs. human play.

I am not desperate to get out of this, i am preventing you to push your narrative to validate your future "townreads", and trying to get back to scumhunt after we have been arguing for like 3 pages now without any improvement in the situation.

This is so fundamentally different than what you were saying earlier.

No, it's one and the same.

Earlier, you acknowledged the strategies were different but my perspective valid.

Later, you used the proposition you now acknowledge as false to make the case that I

absolutely must

place confidence in my townreads. This doubled with postulations about how it'd interact with my personality.

Proposition got proven wrong, quotes reinforced that I absolutely do not place confidence in my townreads, and you're back to square one where you're stuck saying "Yeah but other factors make this bad" and talking about the difference in practicality/application, no longer talking about my behavior or beliefs which was the crucial point in your scumread on me. Saying "Replica town should put more faith in reads over EVs and play accordingly and is scum for not doing so" is a huge walkback from "Replica must and absolutely does put more faith into reads and is scum for not having it"

It is you who are trying to separate EV calculations from read reliability and players' approach to said reliability. In fact, they aren't. A mafia game is composed of mathematical, statistical, psycho/sociological analysis, all things put together. I'll explain more in-detail.

1) You MAY use math to identify a route which would produce better results, but most of the times, purely mathematical EVs are immediately shot down by the review teams, because it would be pointless to create a game with a setup so broken that it could fail to RNG votes. Say you are in a game with 10 scum, 10 masons and 1 VT. Town wins by lynching ONE scum. This is a broken and stupidly trivial example of a game where you can use pure math to achieve victory because the town EV is so high that you don't need to care for other elements.

2) As i said, the vastest majority of games are created with balanced EV on purpose, usually slightly in favor of town (55 town vs 45 mafia is close to standard). Have you ever seen any mafiascum player choosing to -only- random lynch because he has ~10% higher EV? I doubt you have. Therefore, i and all players, and by extension you, are expected to play with more than just math.

Here is where i bring out the fact that you cannot possibly tell me you expect you trust the players (and by extension, yourself) to nail 3 or 4 town spares in a row when simultaneously you DO NOT trust the players (and by extension, yourself) to scumread properly. This is completely inconsistent and illogical, which is what led me to think you are hiding a scum agenda behind math, where math only gives you ~7% higher EV

- and i haven't even started talking about the risk/benefit ratio.

Had you told me that by sparing, town wins 94% of the times whereas fighting wins only 22% of the times, no shit man, i would follow you with my blind eyes (assuming the calculations were correct, of course).

3) Not only the 7% higher EV is a very negligible reward to renounce flip info on, but the risk involved in sparing scum is way, way higher than fighting town. Guess what, once again this is where math alone cannot justify this choice, because if you can get town to believe your narrative, you likely also assume a town leading position where you can push your partner as a spare. This is one more motive for me to scumlean any spare-pushers to begin with, but town can be wrong and there couldn't be 7 scum in the playerlist - but this is even more true when said sparepusher claims he doesn't have faith in the players' (and by extension, his own) scumreads while STILL being convinced the townreads will be foolproof and will lead town to better results than, you know, accumulating info with each of their lynches.

This is for the town to read, not for Replica in particular. Now i am going to bed no matter what because it's almost 3 AM and as much as i do not want to lose this game i'm not going to forfeit more than a couple sleep hours over it.

[Farkran]

I assume this is irrelevant now?

Your read of Chara would still be useful

[Farkran]

I assume this is irrelevant now?

Your read of Chara would still be useful

Also your read of Replica and Psyche

[Farkran]

I'll condense my replies to Replica in a single post as i really do not want to litter the thread anymore, but he's not going to have the last word on this

It is INCONSISTENT and ILLOGICAL that you would advocate the strategy with a

7%

higher town EV when you DON'T trust the town to have better than random reads,

instead of advocating the strategy which would improve said reads to a much greater effect than a 7% higher EV

.

Fixed.

So I'm going to bet that like, nobody actually is going to fulfill their promises of catching up before the deadline.

imo we should hammer and call it a day rather than wait until the 3/4 hour mark and hope people are on. Americans won't even wake up for like, another 5-6 hours so I'd rather those people vote ASAP and not put it off hoping they'll remember after lunch or while at work

Why is anyone townreading this again? There are 2 people who have explicitly said they would speak before deadline, and at least 4 more people who are fine with spare-hammering the currently L-2 Sujimichi. Including me.

[Farkran]

HEAL: Sujimichi

At this point, we should just spare Sujimichi.


I’m not liking Farkran’s most recent contributions. I do think his theory is right about fighting being superior due to the risk of an incorrect spare. But this close to deadline, at this low level of consensus, sparing Sujimichi is the best move I think.

I also didn’t like Chara saying he’d spare Hectic over Sujimichi/Sherlock. Just, what?

Actually, before i go to bed (2 am), i have a question for you, amrun.

Since you gave up pushing for a fight resolution, i assume you are going to work with pre-flip associatives in this game. If i am scum, who am i partner with? If Chara is scum, who is it partner with?

Poke

This would be useful

[Farkran]

10 hours to deadline now

[Farkran]

Yeah, i meant to say you gave up for today, so tomorrow will be pretty much a rehash of today with only NKA to marginally help. I don't really look forward to it.

Why is Almidia your best guess for my scumpartner?

[Farkran]

I'm back. First of all, i apologize for my end of d1 behavior, i know i have been a bit unpleasant. I tend to get passionate towards day ends where town is mostly undecided about the day resolution, and if i believe i found scum there's pretty much no way of shutting me up.

That said, during the night i took my time to reread the game with specific focus on the players who pinged me the most after i replaced in: Chara, Hectic, Replica, Psyche, Amrun and Chemist. This order is not random, although i decided it after reading what has been said in d2 as well - i'll explain myself in a second.

First of all, i cross-examined Replica ISO with Chara and Hectic, as those 3 sounded the most weird lately.

Spoiler: Chara/Hectic/Replica

Second, some thoughts on Chara:

Thank you. Aside from the slot I replaced, I was not able to see anything; however, I will re-read Hectic's post with a focus on removing his jest from his points.

your repeated thanks is making it hard to want to fight you... stop that.

I really struggle to see the motivation behind things like this. Saying "Stop doing X, X makes me not want to lynch/scumread you" comes off to me as always two-timing. It's at once facetiously giving advice to the speaker's scumread, while also imploring that the thing they're doing is at least helping their case, if not an outright towntell to the speaker. If it's a towntell you want to wait and see it develop more fully on its own, without intervening. If they're still a scumread telling them to stop towntelling/making them doubt it is absurd. "Not as eager to lynch" isn't quite equivalent to towntelling, but you get the gist.

Bluntly, to me statements like this come off as aiming to subversively ingratiate yourself with the subject.

Artist who formerly was not Chara, a towncore is nothing if not tested. Games with limited flips are decidedly anti-town. Please don't get lured to the "we find town and we win! easy game!" siren call.

while i prefer townhunting, i don't believe that makes this "easy". you do make a good point i hadn't fully considered, in that only sparing our supposed friends leaves the possibility that they are not so loyal as they appear, with no way of knowing the truth.

After being gungho for townhunting, Chara gets reined in by the revelation that...the townreads might be wrong. No flips does indeed complicate things, but this is so bizarre to not even think about. Chara had to have done at least some thinking given that they leaped to classifying it as a townhunting setup. On the surface this is seems slightly scummy, more just bizarre, but I feel like there's more in my gut that I can't quite get to.

Finally, more abstractly, Chara's way of interacting with the posting gimmicks bothers me. The others use their gimmicks to push game-related points. Some people have complained about them, others are indifferent. Chara in general has been pretty eager to roll with them-commenting a lot on the skeletons, the flowers, Hectic misspelling something in one of the pictures, etc.-but significantly less about the content. #193, well after they've been interacting with Chara all game, is the first time it notes that there is plenty of content from Hectic...which is really surprising for someone who regularly read Hectic's posts and interacted with them.

Here Replica introduces himself with a slight scumlean of Chara, on the account of "ingratiating with Sujimichi" - as if Replica knew beforehand suji was town, but wanted to distance from Chara. He also points out how Chara and Hectic are interacting weirdly in the second part of this post.

Regarding

Replica

, I would reserve comment until they respond to Amrun's question.

When you address this, do you mind including where you were at before the answer, and what you were hoping for/received specifically from the response as you think relevant?

I set out for tonight with a goal to get a townread and a heal vote down to match, as productive as poking at things I don't like about Nacho/Chara is that's only half the game right now (Though Nacho or Amrun might argue it's more). I remembered really liking Chemist and so skimmed them again. I liked #27 being pretty enthusiastic about Hectic, the impatience lining up well with the rest of Chemist's play, and #29's reaction to Billy's meta was solid. The middle parts are lackluster, and then the Heal vote on Asreel in #62 confuses me: A light instinct to TR Asreel is fine,

but switching the heal vote from Hectic seemed wack

.

HEAL: Hectic There's a chance this stays but it's the best I can see without reading more, especially given the votes already on it. I need to sleep for now, hopefully can revisit specific players and reads more clearly tomorrow now that I'm caught up and have answered all the questions I see.

HURT: popsofctown, removing a vote placed by my predecessor. I might use it for reads if I feel it'll be illustrative, but I'd be surprised if I placed a hurt vote the rest of the day unless absolutely required to hammer.

Furthering the scumlean on Chara, while at the same time hard townreading Hectic. Look at the bolded part and tell me if a soft chainsaw defense of Hectic makes sense

at this point in time

, when Replica had just argued with Chara for their interactions, and that gimmicking is not a good reason to townread Hectic slot. Then Replica outright HEALS Hectic, with reservations because of the amount of votes, and NEVER removes that votes for the entire game until Sujimichi happened. KEEP THIS IN MIND¹.

and besides that, even if i don't know if i agree with what they think is best, because we aren't playing math here but mafia (as they said themself)

Here Chara pretty much agrees with

literally the same thing

i will say later in my argument against Replica. KEEP THIS IN MIND².

townreads are my strong suite more than anything.
i've been thinking about this while i've been working.

what

is

the main thrust of your Hectic read, Nacho? i agree he's towny, in that he is engaging with the game and giving reads that make sense,

but i don't know if that's worthy of an absolute locktown read

.

i know we only have a day left, which is unfortunate, but in terms of spare targets i am most sure of, it would be Replica more than anything.

HEAL: Replica
there's the style to the posting (something that i believe is inherent to Replica, which is not AI in and of itself) first of all, which rings honest. i'm not explaining it well but i think it's something that's really difficult to fake, the way that Replica has essentially introduced themself and their methodology and then proceeded to apply it in a way that does not seem performative.
i kind of don't want to know who they are but i can't help wondering anyway.

Hectic isn't a bad spare either, but i am curious what makes him so locktown to you.

Chara HEALS Replica here, switching its 77 vote on Hectic, in a gamestate where Hectic was L-1 from a spare hammer and had intent from Suji. Look at the bolded though: Chara is not strong on townreading Hectic at this point, whereas Replica is its highest townread.

there's the style to the posting (something that i believe is inherent to Replica, which is not AI in and of itself) first of all, which rings honest. i'm not explaining it well but i think it's something that's really difficult to fake, the way that Replica has essentially introduced themself and their methodology and then proceeded to apply it in a way that does not seem performative.
i kind of don't want to know who they are but i can't help wondering anyway.

you there.
they've been consistently open-minded and transparent.
only weird thing is i didn't agree with either of the assessments in 275.
the first looks like a fluff post not relevant to alignment.
the second is something others also expressed in-thread.
many didn't realise that SPARING means no flips = no information.
but then their thoughts on Asriel or Sherlock in 296 are very reasonable.
and this is similar across their ISO like in their interactions with Nacho.
willing to SPARE this pal too.

Hectic willing to spare Replica. Why? Never voted for him though.

I disagree with the conclusion of Farkran's #444, I buy most of Sujimichi's #420 in explaining their reaction. I do think #456 is a bit delusional about the divorce bit, but I come out of this still liking Sujimichi over others. It might be helpful to try to order people somewhat; I'll try and circle back to that in a bit. Their mention of town Sujimichi also makes me want to go back and read them.

For multiple reasons Sujimichi is very low on my list to lynch.

First: Willingness to hammer the spare

. Second: Their playstyle strongly hints to me that we have to look for voting/pushing patterns over tone. Farkran's started to delve into the latter,

but this is not my pick for the day.

P-Edit: The "I do not respond to pressure" is again failing to recognize their own limits I think, which is a shame. That's a liability for us, but it's also a big liability for them as a player more broadly.

Replica trying again to pocket Suji - note this was before Sherlock pointed out the townslip, and therefore before Suji's FN claim as well. Look at the bolded: first reason to townread suji is

sparing Hectic

. Also Replica was nullreading me at the time.

Rough ordering of players for me, scum to town. More because it's a good thought exercise to challenge me with than anything else:

Scum
-------
Nacho

Chara

Chemist
Psyche
Amrun
Sujimichi

Hectic
Farkran

Alimdia
Sherlock
-------
Town

The bottom is a weak cluster of townleans, the only one I'd call a real scumlean is Nacho, Chara I'm still skeptical of but not to the point I'd lynch them anytime soon. I was neutral on almost all of his posting this game but that Chemist read was absolutely awful. I also read a bit of the original Undertale before bed last night hoping to see more on his spare opinions, which were consistent with this game, but I wound up being struck by the difference in tone. I'd need to go further in and a 1 game sample size isn't great, but for now that read on Chemist is so singularly terrible that I really would shed no tears for him.

I know I didn't like something from Chara

last night, will try to find it but might not get to it before I go for the night.

Readlist from Replica speaks for itself. It's scum to the top, town to the bottom, for those who are used to the other way around. Post 502 explains the bit about Chara.

not really feeling up to this but i checked farkran...

like him as well so wouldn't FIGHT there today...

agree with some of his recent thoughts...
only person am semi confident in fighting is chara for now...
will leave it as an option but would still prefer to SPARE...

psyche slot is nullscum...

HURT: Chara

Hectic scumreading Chara at this point. Townleans me, nullscums Psyche.

HURT: pops

Farkran: i explained my Hectic spare when i gave the summary, i believe. early game he was towny and engaging.

the decision to delay his own spare is really the sticking point. there's really no reason for scum to not spare themselves there, and given where the gamestate was at at the time, scum Hectic being afraid of asking to be spared doesn't seem right either. i can't really see him as scum besides, and the regret at not hammering his own spare was something i didn't like upon seeing it, but i really doubt scum decides to lament that when we've gotten a much more fulfilling day out if it, in my opinion.

going to look at the count before i do anything as i don't want to end the day yet.

Chara still strongly townread hectic, providing reasons - except, look at my reply to its post 380, several lines above this. All the reasons stated by Chara in 561 were already present at the point in time of 380. Still, Chara is healing Replica now.

i'm still reading but:
really very town: Hectic, Replica
townish: Chemist, Sujimichi, Amrun
leftovers: alimdia, Psyche, Sherlock, Nacho
scum?: Farkran

Now Hectic is back in the top townreads, and i suddenly fell to the bottom. I was townleaning Chara at this point, Replica and Hectic were nulltown (401).

HEAL: popsofctown this one's not just an unvote, it's really for you, the MVP for all the work you put into running this and for letting me replace in.
HEAL: Hectic but ONLY FOR A SECOND WE STILL ON THE SPARE TRAIN CHOO CHOO

Remember my keep in mind note ¹? The train of votes on Hectic suddenly turned from a reservation to a bonus reason to heal there.

Roughly at this point, Sujimichi townslip was pointed out, and shortly later the long and passionate exchange between me and Replica happened.

.

HURT: unvote
i may have been wrong about Chara...
but i am a little suspicious...
i'm still hiding from her after we started playing hide and seek and she still hasn't found me...
maybe scum-indicative...?

Hectic reconsiders his scumread of Chara, but still scumleans it.

More gratuitous shade - there is nothing in my theory that i haven't been explaining solidly and properly, even if you believe i am wrong. Resorting to omgus-fossing when you are out of arguments is not the correct move.

HURT: Farkran

the solidity of your theory or the consistency of your explanation has little to do with your towniness. it does have everything to do with scum who try to be correct in order to avoid being caught in a contradiction.

it also doesn't make any sense if you scumread Replica to word it this way. it's like you're saying if town Replica should find your argument sound, when the point of what you're saying is that they're scum.
that's not quite exactly what i mean but i hope it comes across.

Chara starts scumreading me for my push on Replica and nothing else.

i think Farkran is scum for reasons besides disagreeing about optimal strategy.

I would be very curious to hear these now, since you are already fighting me in d2 when i argued against Replica

for the exact same reasons you pointed out in my note ²

.

Where I'm at is Sujimichi/Sherlock/Chara town, good chance of Hectic and then Alim being in there, Chemist/Amrun next up, then Farkrun/Psyche/Nacho holding the scum.

At the end of day 1, both Chara and Replica are scumreading me, whereas they are townreading themselves and Hectic. This is pretty much a very convoluted omgus/chainsaw defense, there are no other reasons to scumread me at this point - none of Asriel ISO has been used for a scumcase, which would have been something i would agree with - but i specifically asked if they scumread Farkran because of Farkran, and they said they do.

Though I would LOVE to show some of the people here the TRUE nature of this world, we have a wealth of information from yesterday to push home 3 more SPAREs on town. Ugh.
Replica and Chara are good places to start. Chara's late posting yesterday was very townie

Last but not least, this. Wow.

Conclusions: i am shipping a very plausible solve of 2 scum in {Chara, Hectic, Replica}. One of those three is being HEAVILY POCKETED and

SHOULD READ THIS POST CAREFULLY

.

[Farkran]

Forgive me for the wallpost, but i really suggest that you read it.

I will come back for my analysis of Psyche, Amrun and Chemist later - there's a lot to say there too, slightly weaker reasons but if i am wrong on the first three, Psyche is almost certainly scum with Hectic.

[Farkran]

HURT: Hectic

[Farkran]

because they change their minds/have progression on each other?
why does me being suspicious of Chara and then warming up to her again towards the end of the day make me a loser with her?
i don't really get it pal.
and then you highlight

Chara changing her opinion on me between 380 and 570 where she grows more confident on me.
but that's 200 posts apart

and she gives reasons prior for the change so again why is that progression loserish?

Not because they have progression per se, but because that progression is heavily biased. If you read my post carefully - and you should go read their ISO to fill the gaps - you cannot fail to notice what i mean. The positions where Chara, Replica and Hectic are placed by their counterparts are not the result of reconsidering. There is nothing in-between my quoted posts that justifies the high jumps in their readlists.

WRT the bolded, i think that proves my point rather than disproving it. Chara unvoted you in favor of Replica in post 380: you were L-1 from a spare, with intent from sujimichi. Why did Chara unvote you at all stating you aren't as towny as you were before, when then it explicity says you are back at the top of its townreads in 570 - HOWEVER still refuses to vote for your spare? Note that this is well before the sujimichi townslip (and therefore the claim). I can only think of two reasons for this if i assume scum!chara: distancing from scum!hectic, or not wanting to spare town!hectic. Then, however, Hectic starts scumreading Chara because of that move, only to reconsider it later when Chara comes back to townreading Hectic.

Today, Hectic is townreading Chara enough to place it in his spare pool, and is scumreading me because i am scumreading him. This is not progression, it's literally a very convoluted omgus/chainsaw defense. The only reasons both of you have to townread each other -and scumread me- are because we changed our opinion on you. There is absolutely no other reasons to change your reads other than WE changed our reads. Unfortunately this also applies to Replica, who was scumreading Chara and then reconsiders it exactly when Chara starts scumreading me because i was scumreading Replica, but technically Replica is the most consistent here, so if i had to choose 2 scum and 1 town out of the trio, the town would be Replica. Though, Replica is still a scumread of mine and i could be wrong on either Hectic or Chara - however, it's a given that your interactions do not make sense as a genuine townbloc.

[Farkran]

Perhaps it would be more understandable as a detailed timeline:

1) Chara townreads Hectic because of Hectic content
2) Hectic reaches Spare-1, Chara unvotes and states Hectic is not towny enough
3) Hectic scumreads Chara because of point 2
4) Chara puts back Hectic in its top townreads
5) Hectic unvotes Chara but is still suspicious of it
6) I scumread Replica
7) Chara scumreads me because i scumread Replica
8) Replica townreads Chara because it scumreads me
-d2 happens-
8) Hectic now townreads Chara for no reason at all
9) Hectic now scumreads me because i scumread him
10) Suddenly, Hectic, Chara and Replica formed a townbloc of their own

literally just because of how the players involved are reading themselves

whereas i am pushed as a scumread because i scumread them.

Just no.

[Farkran]

i think he's a loser at the moment, combined with him calling Sujimichi an IC and then not answering my question until I repeated it 4 times about why he would FIGHT someone's he not confident on over SPARING someone he considers an IC.

And for the record this is an immense misrep, because i answered it in post 829, directly quoting your posts and explicitly saying i was not ignoring you. It feels weird that you didn't notice it if you were so interested in my answer - anyways, my answer was detailed and correct. Plus, i said at least a million times that i do not care about the sparing route at all because fighting 2 scum is always strictly better than sparing 4 town, and any scenario in-between is just a waste of time.

[Farkran]

Hectic

also

plainly said he townread me for my posting around the end of day.

Yeah, which amounts exactly to: scumreading me.

Nothing else. If you (or hectic) believe i am wrong, i'll be very happy to hear what else you said to warrant a townread of you from hectic, especially when you didn't vote him back when you started townreading him again (before the sujimichi situation).

Or your scumcase of me, that would also be a very interesting piece of content i would like to hear from you, because -to reiterate- you consolidated your scumread of me exactly when i pushed against Replica

for the exact same reasons you found wrong in his reasoning

.

[Farkran]

Today, Hectic is townreading Chara enough to place it in his spare pool, and is scumreading me because i am scumreading him. This is not progression, it's literally a very convoluted omgus/chainsaw defense. The only reasons both of you have to townread each other -and scumread me- are because we changed our opinion on you. There is absolutely no other reasons to change your reads other than WE changed our reads. Unfortunately this also applies to Replica, who was scumreading Chara and then reconsiders it exactly when Chara starts scumreading me because i was scumreading Replica, but technically Replica is the most consistent here, so if i had to choose 2 scum and 1 town out of the trio, the town would be Replica. Though, Replica is still a scumread of mine and i could be wrong on either Hectic or Chara - however, it's a given that your interactions do not make sense as a genuine townbloc.

how could you possibly know what reasons there are? or to claim what they are. i've spoken about my Hectic townread plenty and you've never factored in.

the biggest reason for it happened before you even replaced in

. it's possible my posting towards you at the end of the day yesterday were what Hectic was referring to in his townread (i feel like they were, you've managed to make me more excitable in general), but he never gave that as the reason.

also:

why do you consider consistency a town trait? scum are more consistent overall due to attempts to post "well" and without making suspicious contradictory moves

. for someone arguing that the personal element and not the math is what makes mafia mafia (i agree with this), why don't you believe that a townie's reads are mutable?

it feels like you worked backwards here from seeing us happening to townread each other and went looking for why that couldn't be,

but then skipped over all of the actual reasons for the TRs and made some up

. it's incredibly clumsy if you are scum here, but if you're town then i don't know how you came to these conclusions either, or

why you've ignored reasoning i know you've read

, considering you've quoted it.

Bolded part 1: you mean your biggest reason to townread hectic happened when you switched your vote from him to Replica?

Bolded part 2: consistency is a town trait. Of course scum also tries very hard to be consistent, but they are often forced into inconsistency because of their "failure" when reading other players. If you base your reads on a wrong premise and then you are proven wrong by claims or flip, you need to re-evaluate, keeping in mind to avoid PoEing yourself or your partners while also forming new scumreads that you know to be fake. Of course scum tries, but keeping consistency up is hard. As town, it's way easier, because you actually have a chance to be correct when scumreading someone.

Bolded part 3 and 4: sure, please tell me the real reasons why you are townreading Hectic and Replica; why Hectic is townreading you and Replica; why Replica is townreading you and Hectic. If there are anyone else other than omgus and chainsaw defenses, i'm all ears.

[Farkran]

i think he's a loser at the moment, combined with him calling Sujimichi an IC and then not answering my question until I repeated it 4 times about why he would FIGHT someone's he not confident on over SPARING someone he considers an IC.

And for the record this is an immense misrep, because i answered it in post 829, directly quoting your posts and explicitly saying i was not ignoring you. It feels weird that you didn't notice it if you were so interested in my answer - anyways, my answer was detailed and correct. Plus, i said at least a million times that i do not care about the sparing route at all because fighting 2 scum is always strictly better than sparing 4 town, and any scenario in-between is just a waste of time.

hi...
i know you mentioned it eventually...
i just don't like how many times i had to ask you it to get an answer from you...
regarding your answer... your assessment in wanting to FIGHT 2 scum over trying to SPARE 4 townies doesn't make you scummy...
however, didn't having someone who you didn't know was the FN at the time as an IC slightly tip the scale towards the SPARE route instead...?
it didn't seem to change your opinion at all, despite the SPARE route being a lot easier in theory after that since it should now be seen as SPARING 3 townies rather than 4 after you locktowned Sujimichi from your perspective...
bye...

I was in the middle of a discussion with Replica, and i did say i didn't want to ignore you. Besides, i have stated my reasons in favor of fighting over sparing many many times, so the original question was quite pointless to be fair. Please reread 829. Now my point is moot, but what benefit is there in sparing sujimichi when he's just going to be killed immediately after New Home is reached? More importantly, i am extremely skeptic as of how the sparepushers are SO confident to get 4 correct spares in a row when they have literally no info to work with. Sparing one correct town does not mean you will spare 3 more. The townpool narrows every passing day, by day 4 (assuming scum hasn't been spared earlier) the odds of sparing scum are 2/5, which adds onto day 3's 2/7 and day 2's 2/9. And forgive me if i insist, but it's not JUST math.

Scum will push to spare their partners sooner or later

, so those odds HAVE to be adjusted in favor of scum. They are not good odds.

[Farkran]

Forgive me for the wallpost, but i really suggest that you read it.

I will come back for my analysis of Psyche, Amrun and Chemist later - there's a lot to say there too, slightly weaker reasons but if i am wrong on the first three,

Psyche is almost certainly scum with Hectic.

hi again...
is this just because i townread him in that last post...?
your method here seems a little shallow in that it relies on people townreading each other to simply be scum with each other...
if it's because of my change of opinion on Psyche... i've explained why...
if you disagree with it... please do say why...
bye again...

No, it's because of how Psyche places you in his townpool in post 665 where none of the other high townread guys are in there. That post was incredibly scummy by itself, because it's... just a very bad approach to this game to point out a townlist when you know at least some of those people will very likely be killed. Keep in mind that his post appeared after the sujimichi townslip, meaning that both suji and sherlock were almost conftown at the time. No wonders about sherlock dying today, and you were third place in his dull townlist. I am now more inclined to believe Psyche is wrongtown, but the possibility is there.

[Farkran]

i acknowledged that (Hectic's tr on me coinciding with my posts to you) already. what about my townread on Hectic?

as for my read on you: given i have repeated it multiple times i'm not very willing to extend it into a pbp breakdown for you to pick at.

and you saying "townreading him again" as though i ever stopped townreading him. it seems like whenever i type this no one listens, since i remember someone else saying the same thing about my Hectic TR. i never stopped townreading Hectic. that's probably the fourth time i've reiterated that? i was questioning Nacho on

his

read in order to further my understand of

Nacho

, and on the possibility that Nacho's reasoning might be concrete enough to strengthen my Hectic TR. what he had said previously did not seem to warrant the locktown read.

Then why did you vote Replica in his stead? From your point of view, you were like 10 hours from deadline, before replacement extensions. Replica had no votes. What's the meaning of you vanity wagoning Replica at that specific moment in time?

you quite literally quoted Hectic's reason for the Replica TR in your wallpost.

Where? Because i couldn't see it.

[Farkran]

there's the style to the posting (something that i believe is inherent to Replica, which is not AI in and of itself) first of all, which rings honest. i'm not explaining it well but i think it's something that's really difficult to fake, the way that Replica has essentially introduced themself and their methodology and then proceeded to apply it in a way that does not seem performative.
i kind of don't want to know who they are but i can't help wondering anyway.

you there.
they've been consistently open-minded and transparent.
only weird thing is i didn't agree with either of the assessments in 275.
the first looks like a fluff post not relevant to alignment.
the second is something others also expressed in-thread.
many didn't realise that SPARING means no flips = no information.
but then their thoughts on Asriel or Sherlock in 296 are very reasonable.
and this is similar across their ISO like in their interactions with Nacho.
willing to SPARE this pal too.

this post was in response to voicing my TR and Hectic gave his own reasons for agreeing with the read and why he would spare. you quoted it.

Ok, so... Hectic acknowledges that Replica posted wrong conclusions and had wrong premises for pushing a spare strategy, yet townreads him enough to spare him. I also initially townleaned Replica because of his apparent trasparency, but this is not a reason to have a hard townread on him. My problem with people pushing for a spare is that they are all too confident about it, not realizing that if even just one scum is spared, it's a disaster. If anything, this reads to me as either pocketing towards town!Replica (my favored solve right now), or the Hectic/Replica scumteam trying to form a mutual townbloc in which case you are being pocketed heavily (less likely after my reread).

If Hectic is not scum, the whole solve falls apart and i should look elsewhere, but currently i am townleaning/townreading Nacho, Amrun, Almidia (now bingle) way more than the rest of the playerlist. I'm still considering Chemist, but the chances are that... he's just being chemist. Psyche is individually scummy and i don't know what to make of him.

[Farkran]

Hectic isn't scum. why does scum Hectic decide not to be spared on day 1? there was consensus to spare him, and quite literally the only thing stopping it was Hectic himself.
and if it was a lack of foresight (but still, there's very little reason to go for some meagre towncred from extending the day in exchange for possibly not being spared), i don't think scum who feels frustrated about the mistake then goes on to tell the thread about it, especially when a scum Hectic has otherwise remained very townread.

i also don't find it weird to say you don't like something from a slot you otherwise townread. i've in the past hated the play of a slot and not agreed with any of their reads, but i still came to a strong townread for other reasons. town are wrong, they

have

to be. they are uninformed. going for wrongness (or contradictions) is surface-level scumhunting and doesn't get you very far.

can you tell me why you scumread him, exactly? keeping in mind i'm aware of your "partners with Chara or Replica" reading. are partner-tells (when you aren't sure of the partner) enough to say he's scum? what about his actual play?
if you say it's the pushing for a spare, then that's the entire list in my memory besides Amrun, and they can't all be scum.

Quick question: what's the reason for town!hectic to delay his own sparing? Because you are quick to say there's no reason for scum!hectic to do so, but neither there is from a town standopoint. Before that, hectic wanted to spare the FN first, but what's the point of sparing publicly conftown over himself (also conftown from his pov)? The FN would just do his job and would probably have been spared the next day. It would actually work even better for town!hectic and the sparepushers as a whole to get two town spared, given that they believed it was optimal strategy.

Delaying the spare could have 3 objectives from a scum mindset: 1. Lamist; 2. Allows them to hunt for the FN, or have him claim for some reason; 3. He'll likely be spared later anyways, since he knows he can't be nightkilled.

What motive is there from a town standpoint to delay a spare on (what you know to be) conftown and have very high odds to spare the FN day 2?

Besides, i individually scumlean every sparepusher, yes. Even moreso those who push for high amount of spares, with unnaturally high confidence in doing so. The list you pointed out is a misrep though: in the end, some slots gave in to sparing, but earlier in the day, Nacho, Sherlock and Amrun (and later me) were all strongly opposing the spare route.

[Farkran]

i still scumlean people who were slow to townread sujimichi

Can you elaborate with names? I can only recall Chara.

[Farkran]

Farkran’s case is BONKERS

Why?

[Farkran]

Actually can anyone make a towncase of Hectic for me? Because i am reading and rereading his ISO and i can't find any reason to townread him so much as you guys do. If i am missing something, i'd like to know what.

To me, it's just a fairly active player who is good at gimmicking (the impersonation of undertale characters is awesome, i feel like i'm reading the real things), but... this is not towny, it's NAI at best, and i really don't see any content worth of a townread so strong as the gamestate is suggesting. I tried re-reading from a townhunt point of view - something i am very inexperienced with, since in my only other townhunt-based game i rolled scum, and town!hectic was there as well - but i don't see any reason to switch his reads like he did, nor do i see any reason to keep pushing for a 4-spared route when he only has 2 townreads left from what i could gather in his recent posting. Also i don't think he even tried to read this game from a scumhunter/fighter point of view, because literally the only reason he is scumreading me now is because i started scumreading Replica and Chara.

Also, i have just today ended a game with town!Hectic (i was town too) and if anything he was less gimmicky both in the townhunt game and the cult game modded by Kerset. I wouldn't use meta gimmickiness as an alignment tell, but it seems to me that some of you would? Bingle was in the cult game too, so i could use some additional insight from him when he catches up.

[Farkran]

I don't think Hectic is hardtown, he was playing okay and had a nice progression on someone, I think Billy Pilgrim, early Day 1 and has just been playing very crisply since the spare.

As mentioned before, I'd really rather have a better reason for a Day 2 spare than "Isn't making mistakes if he's mafia". Day 1 I'm very willing to play the odds with spares. Each day worsens those odds and I become significantly less inclined to spin the wheel.

Does this mean Hectic was an ok d1 spare, but now that we are in d2 he isn't anymore?

I mean, i'm kinda to the point where i'm sorry for arguing against your every post, but i just find it... impossibly high levels of hard to understand how you are approaching this game if you are town.

Pedit: yeah...

[Farkran]

Farkran’s case is BONKERS

Why?

Even if one or all of these people are scum, I think a lot of your reasoning is false. You have some good points but it just seems totally out of left field to me.

I want to reread for myself though.

Please re-read and point out where i am wrong or making it up. Because honestly i don't see how those trio's reads could be genuine. Also i'd like to hear why you shifted your scumreads from me/chara to nacho/almidia(bingle) today, i didn't ignore that - i was just waiting for you to speak up, but it seems like you're back to scumread me and i'm interested in why.

[Farkran]

Farkran’s case is BONKERS, but almost maybe too bonkers to be scum.

Disagree. Yesterday was a very blatant attempt to hide the fact he was shifting the point he was making by making them so long and convoluted no third party would be willing to trace them.

He was all over the place, "Replica's statements say their ego is too big to not trust their own reads, and that conflict is incompatible with sparing" to "If you believe in sparing you have to think you have really strong townreads" to "Anyone who pushes a spare for valuing 7% EV over flips is scummy so that means Replica" with all sort of hoops to jump through along the way as I provided numerous back references to me displaying exactly the opposite attitudes he was attributing to me.

Horrible example of working backwards, and even if people double down on bad reads as town I really doubt many intentionally contort and misrepresent their previous points instead of making new ones.

None of this is true, literally none. I explained very well how you are separating the "replica is inconsistently pushing for a spare when he isn't confident in his reads" and the "pushing for a spare because of 7% higher EV is scummy" - they are one and the same. Post 882. If anything, i think you are now less scummy than Hectic and Chara, you probably entered a death tunnel on me because i am opposing your in-game approach. Although posts like 990 are really, really bad...

[Farkran]

To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic. I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do. I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

Ok, good, since you mentioned it we'll use this as an example.

If you single out Hectic as a good d1 spare to you, how is he NOT A GOOD SPARE IN D2? Just tell me how you can think like this and be town.

[Farkran]

Farkran’s case is BONKERS

Why?

Even if one or all of these people are scum, I think a lot of your reasoning is false. You have some good points but it just seems totally out of left field to me.

I want to reread for myself though.

Please re-read and point out where i am wrong or making it up. Because honestly i don't see how those trio's reads could be genuine. Also i'd like to hear why you shifted your scumreads from me/chara to nacho/almidia(bingle) today, i didn't ignore that - i was just waiting for you to speak up, but it seems like you're back to scumread me and i'm interested in why.

My scumreads were never you/Chara. From the beginning of the day, it was you/Sujimichi. Later in the day, it was alimdia/Psyche, with a small mention of you.

Now it’s more like ... you/alimdia but I haven’t really committed for the day because I want to re-examine some things, as previously stated. For the most part, anyone pushing something with reasoning that doesn’t seem to accurately reflect the meaning/intent of the players involved is suspect and that’s definitely you right now.

No idea why you think I scumread Chara. I do not.

Sorry. I went from memory by post 912 (and previous posts leading to that). I will wait until you finish your analysis and tell me where i am wrong or making things up though.

[Farkran]

To be honest, I don't have a good read on Hectic. I'm very bad at getting townreads, which is what this game really asks us to do. I saw some good continuity on a read iirc but I'm very dependent on expectations, and I don't see why scum Hectic

doesn't

play like this.

Things like this though are exactly why I love sparing Day 1: We get the most leeway in our spares today.

Ok, good, since you mentioned it we'll use this as an example.

If you single out Hectic as a good d1 spare to you, how is he NOT A GOOD SPARE IN D2? Just tell me how you can think like this and be town.

Huh? Is this a real argument?

Why would reads not evolve with the game? What?

Tell me what has hectic done to fall down in Replica's spare list, from Replica POV. Anything, just give me one thing that could validate that read shift. The only reason Hectic wasn't spared yesterday is because sherlock found a huge townslip of sujimichi and he subsequently claimed, otherwise Hectic would have been hammered with no issues at all.

[Farkran]

He's getting at "If you're willing to take a random bet Day 1 with an 8/10 chance of hitting it correctly, why would you be less willing to take it in later days?"

The answer is the probability of sparing correctly goes down every day. Day 1 -> Day 2 is a pretty negligible decrease (8/10 -> 6/8) which is why I'm still looking to spare him and am actively looking to nail down and get a solid read on.

P-Edit: Strange, I don't remember him falling down my spare list. Can you quote where I suggested I'd rather spare someone else?

I don't think Hectic is hardtown, he was playing okay and had a nice progression on someone, I think Billy Pilgrim, early Day 1 and has just been playing very crisply since the spare.

As mentioned before, I'd really rather have a better reason for a Day 2 spare than "Isn't making mistakes if he's mafia". Day 1 I'm very willing to play the odds with spares. Each day worsens those odds and I become significantly less inclined to spin the wheel.

Are you... just fooling with me or what?

[Farkran]

None of that says there is someone I want to spare over Hectic.

At no point Day 1 did I ever give a hard townread on Hectic.

This dude is not reading, period, and refuses to open any of the linked posts.

I really struggle to believe this is town.

And yet you were willing to spare him, he was literally L-1 with intent on a spare wagon with your vote on it, the ONLY reason he was not spared yesterday is because sujimichi turned out to be a way better spare target, and even though the whole spare route is dumb, i am trying to read it from the POV of a player who genuinely believes it is optimal as you claim to be.

And yet, today you are suddenly looking for better motives to spare the exact same player.

And you keep separating math from psychology like i am not reading your posts. You are not reading mine. Probability has nothing to do with a player alignment. If you townread Hectic hard enough in d1 to spare him, you would also spare him in a 3p lylo with you, hectic and anyone else. Otherwise you do not spare him. Period.

[Farkran]

Replica. Your arguments make zero sense. None at all. Everything you say is just... wrong, from every point of view i try to read it. From the start to the end. I literally quoted one of your posts, and explained to you why you were, once again, wrong. Your answer to this is that "i don't read and i am scum because of it". This is actually one reason why i am more inclined to scumread the other two instead of your slot. It seems to me that you are just very, very wrong in your approach to this game, so much that you do not understand what i am saying at all rather than actually pushing a scum agenda like i thought you were doing yesterday.

I beg of you, please re-read the setup and tell me how sparing scum could EVER a good thing in this game, and then come back to me saying that you would still spare a weak town read during d1 with so much confidence just to backpedal in d2 on the same person, without any further motive to do so besides pure mathematical probability. Until you do that, i can no longer talk to you for my own and this game's good.

[Farkran]

I mean, I personally did not like Hectic’s d2 start saying “well we might as well spare now” without reads that seem to make sense with that plan. Replica could think any number of things. I think not understanding this is really odd and kinda reads like TMI to me, like it could be from the perspective of someone who KNOWS Hectic is town.

I didn't like it either, and i pointed it out in my introductory d2 wallpost. Did replica say anything about it? No. Once he explained his reduced confidence with

math only

, not because of anything Hectic has done. This is my problem with him. But it's... really probably my fault for getting passionate against wrong approaches rather than him being scummy. I need to make peace with it, i have seen similar stuff in Normal 2106 and it turned out my favored lynch target was town too. I need to take a break and engage with other people.

Pedit: thanks chemist, please save me. Or fight me, whatever, just give me a different point of view from what we have been seeing recently

[Farkran]

Okay I read it

The first issue I had with it is that you saying their posting was weird at EoD implies that you were scumreading them before you ISO'd them, which seems like confbias, intentional or not.

Second issue: a couple things feel like misreps, particularly you implying 392 was unexplained when there were multiple lines of reasoning in the post. 300 also didn't feel like a chainsaw because to me it pings more as trying to determine my alignment as opposed to arguing about Hectic's. If I'm reading into the context correctly, no matter who I had been sparing they would have made approximately the same post, just with the bolded switched to correctly name whoever I'd been voting

Also there's the fundamental flaw that if you think all three interactions could be SvS, you're guaranteed to be wrong on at least two of them, so that sort of calls into question the validity of the read

Fark, why did you choose to ISO those players first, in more detail?

I admit i tend to enter deathtunnels, and that's why i'm asking for different point of views. I am having an hard time with it because all the answers i'm getting are pretty much "you're wrong because you're scum, and you're scum because you're wrong" - not really helpful. Confbias though just means that part/all of my reasoning is wrong though, not the conclusions - i'm pointing this out because if you (all) can lead me to understand where my reasoning has been wrong, i could reach different conclusions or the same, depending on whether i accept the new premises that you show me.

WRT post 392, i think i expanded on it later when i was questioned about it. Post 977.

WRT post 300, you could be correct without context, but within the given context i think it is peculiar that Replica scumleans Chara at this point in time, when reading it with added future knowledge. Like, Replica seems to use Chara's unvote of Hectic to further his scumleans on it mostly because of confbias (Replica was townleaning Hectic and scumleaning Chara at the moment of post 300), but later on this feeling disappears completely for reasons that seemed unnaturally tied to how the three slots read each other. Compare this post to 607 -you can find it lower in my wall- to see an example of what i mean. This is probably more about Chara and Hectic themselves rather than Replica though.

Why i am guaranteed to be wrong on at least TWO of them, though? I would think i am wrong on at least one, potentially two or all three of them. Why exactly two? I did say that i think one of them is being deeply pocketed, but i didn't seem to gain any ground on that - i am now more inclined to believe the pocketed slot is Replica, if i am correct in saying there are 2 scum in that pool. It's just very, very hard to accept Replica's approach to this game as town, although it's... probably true. I town/scumhunt with emotional tells, as you may or may not recall from our previous game together (see my read of V&M in the magireco game hosted by tatsuya), and Replica is somewhat falling in that category. Not as much as i would like, but... arguably enough.

Lastly, i chose those 3 because they are the ones who pinged me the most. Psyche would have been included, i still scumlean him, but the readshifts of that trio are the most peculiar to me. Amrun pinged me too, but in a more towny sense, so i am willing to leave her alone until i get more content to work with. I was suspecting you for your early defense of the lurker slots - that would place you in team with Psyche though, and i don't fancy that solve anymore. Nacho and Almidia(bingle) have been mostly lurking, i am waiting for them to come back with new content, but i am townleaning Nacho due to how the reads of other players evolved around him, and i liked Almidia multipost readlist back around post 290 or something.

[Farkran]

hello visitor... welcome to my home...
i currently think Chara and Replica are confident town and Psyche is good town... and i assume i'm a candidate...
and i'm hoping i can find substantial town elsewhere through this day...
Farkran said something earlier about how the maths is bad for SPARING due to 2/9 chance of SPARING mafia here, and then 2/7 next day, and 2/5 that day... added on with mafia pushing to SPARE each other...
but that ignores the fact that the town are working to solve this game and don't have random reads...
there'd be no point of playing mafia if town didn't have an above baseline random chance of lynching scum/finding town with good play...

I'm answering this as my last post for today, 1.30 AM here, i need some sleep. I noticed i tend to get more impulsive towards nighttime, but that's your fault for having a different timezone than me i am perfect, italy is best place, etc.

Unfortunately, i still have to point out that without flips, town doesn't really gain any new info to work with, and therefore they cannot improve their reads over time except for NKA (which today isn't very helpful at all). It is true that there are plenty of games where town lynches scum d1 or d2, so town can be very good at times, but the problem is that in this game we are allowing people to get away without producing any significant scumread or placing actual votes on them. Using math to fake a townread is way easier than producing a scumcase, and in turn this also makes it harder for the true town to scumhunt based on other people's reasoning, progression, VCA, etc as you would do in a standard mafia game.

How would you scumhunt in this game, Hectic? This is a serious question. I am interested in how you arrived to the conclusion that i could be scum, and therefore you'd like to avoid sparing me in your quest for a 4-spared route. Same about Amrun or Almidia, as per post 942.

Good night everyone!

(pedit: i'll get to you tomorrow, chemist)

[Farkran]

I admit i tend to enter deathtunnels, and that's why i'm asking for different point of views. I am having an hard time with it because all the answers i'm getting are pretty much "you're wrong because you're scum, and you're scum because you're wrong" - not really helpful. Confbias though just means that part/all of my reasoning is wrong though, not the conclusions - i'm pointing this out because if you (all) can lead me to understand where my reasoning has been wrong, i could reach different conclusions or the same, depending on whether i accept the new premises that you show me.

For what it's worth, I don't think the wallpost is that scummy actually, but I've been burned on these sorts of reads before, which is why I'm trying to follow up on it

WRT post 392, i think i expanded on it later when i was questioned about it. Post 977.

Alright, will check it out once I'm done responding

WRT post 300, you could be correct without context, but within the given context i think it is peculiar that Replica scumleans Chara at this point in time, when reading it with added future knowledge. Like, Replica seems to use Chara's unvote of Hectic to further his scumleans on it mostly because of confbias (Replica was townleaning Hectic and scumleaning Chara at the moment of post 300), but later on this feeling disappears completely for reasons that seemed unnaturally tied to how the three slots read each other. Compare this post to 607 -you can find it lower in my wall- to see an example of what i mean. This is probably more about Chara and Hectic themselves rather than Replica though.

I thought it was about my unvote of Hectic though? And I don't see how 607 is unnatural, given that Replica was already SPAREing Hectic?

Why i am guaranteed to be wrong on at least TWO of them, though? I would think i am wrong on at least one, potentially two or all three of them. Why exactly two? I did say that i think one of them is being deeply pocketed, but i didn't seem to gain any ground on that - i am now more inclined to believe the pocketed slot is Replica, if i am correct in saying there are 2 scum in that pool. It's just very, very hard to accept Replica's approach to this game as town, although it's... probably true. I town/scumhunt with emotional tells, as you may or may not recall from our previous game together (see my read of V&M in the magireco game hosted by tatsuya), and Replica is somewhat falling in that category. Not as much as i would like, but... arguably enough.

I meant two worlds, not two slots, sorry if that was unclear. What tells from Replica do you think are town?

Lastly, i chose those 3 because they are the ones who pinged me the most. Psyche would have been included, i still scumlean him, but the readshifts of that trio are the most peculiar to me. Amrun pinged me too, but in a more towny sense, so i am willing to leave her alone until i get more content to work with. I was suspecting you for your early defense of the lurker slots - that would place you in team with Psyche though, and i don't fancy that solve anymore. Nacho and Almidia(bingle) have been mostly lurking, i am waiting for them to come back with new content, but i am townleaning Nacho due to how the reads of other players evolved around him, and i liked Almidia multipost readlist back around post 290 or something.

Okay, that's fair. Can you go into more detail about the Psyche read, and are you just dropping the me/Psyche world because you're confident on the Hectic/Chara/Replica pool having scum?

Again WRT post 300, i only considered the interaction with Chara there, not with you - the answer i gave you here is considering what happened in the future, compared to what happened there. The whole wallpost is about Chara, Hectic and Replica interactions and their progression of one another.

I get your point about being wrong on at least two worlds (i think. You mean to say that out of Hectic/Chara, Replica/Chara, Replica/Hectic, two of these are necessarily wrong, correct?), but that's not how i thought of it, really. It's more like i am shipping 2 scum in {Hectic, Chara, Replica} and i'm still trying to sort out who's town among the three. I currently think it's Replica, and i think it's never Hectic based on how things rolled out - assuming i am correct. If hectic is town, it's a bit more unlikely that the other two are scum. Progression by Replica about Chara sounds a bit better upon re-read with added explanations. I'm significantly more confident about Hectic/Chara now, mostly because of those weird shenanigans that happened after Chara unvoted Hectic. See points 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 (er... the second point 8, after the d2 line. Apparently i can't count) in post 945. The whole thing where Chara unvotes Hectic, and then Hectic scumreads Chara because of it, only for both slots to backpedal later up to be perfectly fine with sparing each other smells like rotten fish levels of distancing. Add in that Hectic started scumleaning me out of mostly omgus, and i just believe i am correct at least on him. I really don't buy that his scumcase of me is limited to my reasoning around sujimichi (1018, etc), after i explained so many times that i wouldn't spare anyone because it's suboptimal, risky, and a waste of time in most of the cases described by the setup.

[Farkran]

Sorry i mean post 1025 from hectic, not 1018

[Farkran]

About Psyche, he's one of the slots i would find most individually scummy out of the playerlists. However, like, scum!Psyche doesn't... quite fit in the gamestate as i understand it.

Things i have against him:
- Pine lurking, then replacing out. I have direct experience of him doing so when he rolls scum in a game he's not enthusiast about (newbie 1958), and i have heard at least a couple people complaining about the same things. Can't recall where, but i am pretty sure pops complained about her scumpartner Pine replacing out and leaving her alone.
- Way too much confidence in a 4-spared route, when he doesn't have a clear view of the mechanics or the playerlist. See 405 vs 665 vs 742. Even assuming 665 is correct, it's clear that the game could not be that easy. Not even close. Consensus townreads are going to die, just like in every mafia game that ever exixisted, and it does not make sense not to consider that when planning for a 4-spared strategy that only involves like, 5 reads total... including himself. And hectic, but whatever.
- He seems to be actively dodging any and all tentatives to produce a gamesolve outside of pushing easy spares (note: easy spares does not mean town spares). Look at how many times he says he would focus, read, analyze players and ISOs only to produce nullreads and nothing else. Look at 933 to see a general example of what i mean - there are plenty more in his ISO.
- ...I just noticed 405, 610, 611, 661, 673, 736, while rereading his ISO again to produce this post. It was probably a mistake, now i scumread him again lol.

In his favor, i think that his only available partner slots are Hectic and Chemist. I was expecting Psyche would come up and replace the now dead Sherlock with Chemist in his sparelist, but he didn't - this kinda makes the trail feel colder than it was yesterday. I don't particularly see any other good partner for him in the current gamestate, although if Hectic is town i think Psyche's scum equity coincidentally rises instead of falling.

[Farkran]

Okay. I’m townreading Farkran from the last three pages. Fark, what should I be voting for?

Wouldn’t trust psyche or Amrun to watch the tip jar at a Starbucks. If Fark disappoints I’m probably defaulting to chem as a recent poster who doesn’t give me ick feelings.

Hmmm...

This post isn't really top quality, to be honest. Why are you townreading me? Based on 1042 it looks like you are believing tone/sentiment rather than content, so why would you sheep my reads for that reason alone? Besides, i have been pretty straightforward regarding who my scumtargets are. Best vote for today is Hectic, imo. Otherwise, i'm still willing to hear towncases about him.

Seriously though, you should produce more content. D2 has just started, you have plenty of time to catch up. ISOs i suggest to read: Hectic, Chara, Psyche.

[Farkran]

all your reads seem super wrong

while there are just some weird contradictions in your reasoning (for example you quote a post where i acknowledge where scum will kill townclears, but elsewhere you say i don't consider that consensus townreads are gonna die kinda weird), in general i think the systemic problem with the way you develop reads is that you associate towniness far too readily w/ tight, cautious, analytical, thorough play - or more specifically w/ play and positioning like yours

think that's the lesson you'll hopefully pick up once the game's all said and done

As opposed to... what? Distracted, inconsistent, inconclusive play? Or what else do you read as towny in a player, when trying to townhunt?

Tell me why and where i am wrong.

[Farkran]

those aren't really antonyms to tight, cautious, analytical, thorough at all

and it doesn't really match your description of my play either
for example, aren't you mad that i'm super conclusive? that i'm more ready to commit to uncertain reads than you are?

the answer might actually be "no" to that, and that's a weird thing about your case against me
you call me overconfident about some reads in one line but complain about my readiness to say "null" and acknowledge uncertainty in another?
looked at fully it seems like you're just mad that i have...reads of varying strength?

maybe i just have the advantage of my perspective, but there's just so little of substance in such a long post with so many links

[Farkran]

Pressed submit by accident

[Farkran]

those aren't really antonyms to tight, cautious, analytical, thorough at all

I have seen players hunt by relaxed play. That's not what you're doing here.

and it doesn't really match your description of my play either
for example, aren't you mad that i'm super conclusive? that i'm more ready to commit to uncertain reads than you are?

the answer might actually be "no" to that, and that's a weird thing about your case against me
you call me overconfident about some reads in one line but complain about my readiness to say "null" and acknowledge uncertainty in another?
looked at fully it seems like you're just mad that i have...reads of varying strength?

maybe i just have the advantage of my perspective, but there's just so little of substance in such a long post with so many links

You aren't conclusive at all, at least by what i think the word "conclusive" implies. If you mean to say that you jump to conclusions without passing through reasoning, then yes, you're super conclusive. I usually associate conclusiveness with the concept of deducing/inducing motives about <something>, and then declare that <something>. You are overconfident about how this game should go, and about very few specific reads (which include yourself, no less), but you have no reasoning to back your reads up, and no scumreads at all.

Last but not least, these two posts seem to be specifically aimed at turning my question back at me rather than answering it. Do you have any reads? Post them. Do you have reasoning to back up such reads? Post reasoning.

[Farkran]

Suji and sherlock? You mean the IC who slipped the towniest post that ever existed in the forums, and the one who discovered it and died n1? Must have been some hard effort

Really, the only reason i'm not powerlynching you today is because i have someone else in mind and i know how apathetic town can be sometimes and it's not -always- AI.

pedit: not as much as you dodging my question. I would have expected a Chara scumread, based on your 981. What do you think of Chara?

[Farkran]

I would have expected a Chara scumread, based on your 981. What do you think of Chara?

[Farkran]

@Psyche i still don't see your opinion of Chara, by the way.

@Chara incidentally, what's your opinion of Psyche today, besides not liking his angle? Also has your readlist changed, or are you still lost in the tunnel? You say pursuing fights has value - so, i'd like to hear who you would consider my potential partner since sherlock has been conftowned by death and i am also scumreading psyche (picked those names directly from your latest readlist in 570).

[Farkran]

i'm undecided on Psyche. speaking of, it's hindsighty because you referenced Sujimichi's actions pre-claim and pre-Sherlock's tell, and so now that we know Sujimichi is town you can go back and say "look, i was right in this townread, you all should have seen it then as well", when i don't agree that Suji was obvtown enough to say anyone scumreading them deserves a scumlean. to go back to an earlier point, scum correctly call town town all the time.
i'm guessing your Amrun (and someone else i've forgotten) scumreads come from Sujimichi in some way?

i'd also like a read on me.

my list has changed, sure. i don't think it's fair to say i'm tunneling you either, Farkran. tunnel-vision implies i'm both looking nowhere else and considering nothing else.

...who's the first part of this post directed at? You seem to be answering my question with regards to psyche, but everything else sounds like you're talking to psyche himself. I did not townread sujimichi. He was far from obvtown to me, and if we remove the townslip and the claim i still think he would have scum equity. Similar to psyche though, once i realized what the townslip was about, i immediately felt there was no ambiguity about it and that's one point i would credit psyche - if only he wasn't as adamant about town!suji as he was shaky and flaily about pretty much everyone else. but i'd have to compare that read to the Hectic/Chara/Replica trio + Psyche now. I am also not scumreading Amrun, although we can talk about it (@psyche, you too).

I am currently scumreading you though. Hectic/Chara is my best guess at a solve for this game at this point in time. Even if i take for genuine that you townread Hectic when he "complained" about refusing to be hammered by suji, Hectic's own reaction about your unvote sounded like awful distancing upon rereading the exchange. Why would Hectic scumread you after you switch your vote, only to backpedal on it when you start townreading him again? Why didn't that reaction strike you as odd? It literally didn't ring any bell to you, so much that you immediately entered d2 with a heal vote on him. I don't buy this.

By the way i'd like to hear your new list, because last time i checked i was your only scumread and i still have a fight vote from you - i have yet to understand the real reasons behind it, besides you siding with Replica in the 1v1 he had with me, which i'll say once again it makes no sense since i was arguing with him for the same reasons you pointed out way earlier in d1. I think i have hit a nerve somewhere, trying to sort where - but it's clear that the group i've been hitting with my scumreads are now scumreading me in return for very little reasons.

Except psyche - i am having a bit more trouble sorting psyche. He's individually scummy, but i don't feel he's pushing me. Rather, he's mocking me. I have seen this coming from town more than i've seen from scum, although it's nowhere near a clear.

[Farkran]

and on partners: i don't do preflip partner analysis. waste of time and not in my skillset.

So... you're praising the value of scumhunting, yet you don't do "preflip" partner analysis. When are we supposed to flip someone, in your opinion?

[Farkran]

Farkran: to answer you from earlier about Hectic, the town motivation is to extend the day and hopefully get more content out of the replacements, which did happen.
you're the one who said that scum being spared is the worst, worst outcome, so it follows that it's the best outcome for scum. deciding to delay his sparing for shaky towncred, or to hunt for the FN, is risky and gives the opportunity for the TR on him to wane.

Oh, i'm sure the townread consensus on him waned immensely, given that all people who were townreading him yesterday are still townreading him today - that is, assuming the almighty math gods will allow Replica to pursue that, but he did claim Hectic is still his highest townread if i recall correct. You are healing him, psyche is inclined to heal him. No one is scumreading him except for myself. And i have yet to understand why. I do not see any town motivation in extending the day, if the chosen route was to be 4-spared as he claimed it would be today.

[Farkran]

even after the towntell, several including you insisted that sujimichi wasn't plainly town while i did. you were wrong.

before the towntell, farkran read sujimichi and sherlock as scum. both those reads were wrong (and the psyche read is wrong too). farkran's track record on reads in general this game is pretty sorry and invites self-reflection. in my experience we won't see it even after the game is done and flips are finished.

otoh i'm pretty sure every read i've committed to (averred confidence in) so far and beyond will turn out right. at least i have a lot of fun committing to implausible shit like that. ahh the rush in self-aware conceit

these are both just side points but i make em because i'm comically insecure and felt slighted about my play. i should be more chill and cool and friendly — or at least a bit more focused i mean cmon

im so sorry for most everything leading up to this post though seriously and will go get some sleep

Yet you don't seem to be scumreading me. As i said, you seem to be mocking me, which leads me to believe you think i am unusually bad as town, rather than scum. Would you rather that i sheep you, the comically insecure player who is, however, overconfident about all his townreads (for no reason at all except possibly TMI) enough to push a 4-spared route which incidentally also includes himself?

[Farkran]

As opposed to... what? Distracted, inconsistent, inconclusive play? Or what else do you read as towny in a player, when trying to townhunt?

Tell me why and where i am wrong.

the problem is all of these things you've listed are more often personality traits than alignment indicators.

townhunting involves pushing players for interactions that allow you to conclusively say "no way scum behaves in this way". i'm not sure why i developed this way as a player, but it was probably in reaction to scumreads and wagons born of players making mistakes/being wrong about something, rather than being scum.

you can catch bad scum by looking for inconsistency or contradiction. you can't really catch good scum

.

Oh, thanks. I assume you just called me town, because the alternative would be being the worst scum player in this playerlist since i am your only scumread and your only fight vote ever since this game has started. Or is this still about asriel? You were on his wagon, after all. Sarcasm aside, i am still looking for your reason to scumread Farkran - not asriel. I asked you several times, but every time i do, the answer seems revolving around my 1v1 with Replica and i cannot make any sense out of that.

pedit: i just want to point out that i'm still catching up and answering old posts, not reading those people are making in-between mine. I'll get to those once i am finished.

[Farkran]

why would i, from my perspective, think Hectic's vote on me was distancing? that doesn't make any sense. it looked like he reacted to my unvote and then later reconsidered when i posted more about it and other things in general. it sounds like you gave the turn of events right there. he scumread my vote switch, and then reconsidered after further events. that's not weird, that's reacting to a thing that happened. what the hell else am i going to think?

How is it possible that Hectic's omgus vote on you literally didn't ring any alarm bell to you? In what universe does town!Hectic scumread you for removing your vote on him when even you said that his purpose was to extend the day? What kind of reasoning is this?

[Farkran]

townreads are my strong suite more than anything.
i've been thinking about this while i've been working.

what

is

the main thrust of your Hectic read, Nacho? i agree he's towny, in that he is engaging with the game and giving reads that make sense, but i don't know if that's worthy of an absolute locktown read.

i know we only have a day left, which is unfortunate, but in terms of spare targets i am most sure of, it would be Replica more than anything.

HEAL: Replica
there's the style to the posting (something that i believe is inherent to Replica, which is not AI in and of itself) first of all, which rings honest. i'm not explaining it well but i think it's something that's really difficult to fake, the way that Replica has essentially introduced themself and their methodology and then proceeded to apply it in a way that does not seem performative.
i kind of don't want to know who they are but i can't help wondering anyway.

Hectic isn't a bad spare either, but i am curious what makes him so locktown to you.

and alimdia, i asked you what reads you thought were missing. i'm pretty sure i've given my thoughts whenever it's relevant.

napstablook here...
here's some random thoughts from my phone...
really regret telling Sujimichi not to hammer earlier...
realise now that we should've let the SPARE happen rather than risk it falling apart... oh well...
replica and sherlock both feel like town...
chara i'm having doubts on after looking through her ISO...

she parked a SPARE on us while not really giving us the impression she townread us with the way she asked us questions/talked about us and questioned Nacho's read...
and the timing of her SPARE vote change after alimdia said he would hammer soon feels like she would rather have someone be (mis)lynched instead...

alimdia also feels slightly off but then we saw his flurry of posts for his reads list were minutes apart...
think it's really hard to fake those so quickly unless he prepared the posts beforehand which is unlikely...
we still like sujimichi he feels very honest...
we're more confident in SPARING over FIGHTING overall...
sherlock or sujimichi are both fine we think...
replica as the third option...
@popsofctown: our FIGHT vote should be on Psyche we believe

not really feeling up to this but i checked farkran...
like him as well so wouldn't FIGHT there today...
agree with some of his recent thoughts...
only person am semi confident in fighting is chara for now...
will leave it as an option but would still prefer to SPARE...
psyche slot is nullscum...
HURT: Chara

only 36 hours....

Hectic spare is one i'm most confident with. i'm torn between that as the safest option and wanting to pursue something to lead to a flip.
i do TR Sujimichi. i think i believe them about what they said in the previous game, in that they would not take ongoing games into account, so i won't take that as a clear but rather as a testament to Sujimichi's own commitment to not referring to ongoing games, which i agree with and have in fact done in the past. to be clear, i'm referring to making comments such as "i haven't been scum in a while" to a scumpartner, whilst scum in an ongoing game. ongoing games don't exist, so i find it perfectly valid. lying by omission is necessary, in fact.

i'm not sure why Psyche finds this so hard to believe, actually.

i'm not sure why i feel so cautious about the lynch. in a regular game, you simply do the best you can with your day 1 lynch because you have to, but all of the discussion surrounding optimal action has me overthinking it.
day 1 scum lynches lose games after all, ahaha.

HURT: unvote
i may have been wrong about Chara...
but i am a little suspicious...
i'm still hiding from her after we started playing hide and seek and she still hasn't found me...
maybe scum-indicative...?

Though I would LOVE to show some of the people here the TRUE nature of this world, we have a wealth of information from yesterday to push home 3 more SPAREs on town. Ugh.
Replica and Chara are good places to start. Chara's late posting yesterday was very townie, and I'm particularly townreading her for how she townread us due to her logic of us "being annoyed at telling Sujimichi to not hammer and openly admitting that", it feels like one of the more genuine reasons to townread us I've seen this game.

I mean what's this progression? Can anyone explain to me how Hectic goes from scumleaning Chara due to its ISO, fight it as his only fight-worthy vote, then enter d2 with a spare-worthy townread of Chara? What the hell is that?

[Farkran]

Farkran: to answer you from earlier about Hectic, the town motivation is to extend the day and hopefully get more content out of the replacements, which did happen.
you're the one who said that scum being spared is the worst, worst outcome, so it follows that it's the best outcome for scum. deciding to delay his sparing for shaky towncred, or to hunt for the FN, is risky and gives the opportunity for the TR on him to wane.

Oh, i'm sure the townread consensus on him waned immensely, given that all people who were townreading him yesterday are still townreading him today - that is, assuming the almighty math gods will allow Replica to pursue that, but he did claim Hectic is still his highest townread if i recall correct. You are healing him, psyche is inclined to heal him. No one is scumreading him except for myself. And i have yet to understand why. I do not see any town motivation in extending the day, if the chosen route was to be 4-spared as he claimed it would be today.

1) extending the day gives us more information and input from replacements, instead of just a consensus spare and little input from a lot of dead slots. this is a good thing. do you agree or disagree?

2) scum being spared is very bad for town. do you agree or disagree with that? given that, what is most important for scum to do?

3) Hectic's position today (three townreads on him, 4 votes to spare him counting Hectic himself) is not proof against it being risky in the first place. to use an analogy, it's dangerous to jump off a cliff into shallow, rocky water. many people do this anyway. they survived, so that must mean it isn't a risky thing to do.
except it of course still is, but looking for proof in the successes is not how you find the risk. you do that by looking at the water and the height of the cliff.

i really doubt i'm going to convince you on this at this point, but there you go.

1. Usually, yes. In this setup and that moment in time, not really. What's the harm in ending the day early in a town spare, from Hectic's POV? Again - i don't think Hectic was even close to foresee the FN would be outed the way he did, but why would you even risk that? There is no doctor, no cop, no night ability that would need any more info from day discussion. The FN could just target at random n1 - it's not like scum could lie about being targeted: if the FN claims, you say you were visited, otherwise you're scumlocked instantly as there is no roleblocker/stopper/ascetic/etc either.

2. Scum being spared is the worst possible outcome, in every of the 4 spare-based routes. Of course scum would aim at being spared - at least one of them, if not both. One more reason for town!Hectic to allow the day end, i don't see your point.

3. Not a good analogy. It's not risky when you are not afraid of nightkills, and i'd be very surprised to see Hectic lynched today, given that pretty much everyone except me are still townreading him. This alone should ring a bell, either about me or about everyone else. But once again, you're the only one voting to fight me, despite the fact that i gathered at least 3 scumleans over time (Replica, Amrun and Hectic himself). Sure, yeah, reads are flip-floppy etc, but ultimately no one is willing to put their weight on their scumread of me. I've been provoking at least half of the playerlist now, to see who would pick it up. This should also ring some bells. The only one who did was you, and for what i think are poor reasons, if unrelated to my pred.

pedit: ...and you unvoted. Neeeeevermind. By the way, if you want to read my whole history on mafiascum, check my wiki page. All the completed games i played are listed there, with their codename and flavor name (when applicable) to find them in the forums, my role, my outcome, and game outcome. And my personal comments if you are also interested in those.

[Farkran]

why would i, from my perspective, think Hectic's vote on me was distancing? that doesn't make any sense. it looked like he reacted to my unvote and then later reconsidered when i posted more about it and other things in general. it sounds like you gave the turn of events right there. he scumread my vote switch, and then reconsidered after further events. that's not weird, that's reacting to a thing that happened. what the hell else am i going to think?

How is it possible that Hectic's omgus vote on you literally didn't ring any alarm bell to you? In what universe does town!Hectic scumread you for removing your vote on him when even you said that his purpose was to extend the day? What kind of reasoning is this?

because town get paranoid...? they react in response to actions?

do you scumread every single player that votes you? i understand what gave him the thought to vote me. it isn't like he started tunneling me after that. i don't know how to say it any more plainly that i don't expect every town player to make perfect logical leaps like "Chara must have unvoted me to extend the day" when i might not have made that clear . i don't remember if i did.
there's something fundamental here about how mafia isn't so black and white but i don't know how to even begin discussing it more than i already have.

No, i don't scumread every player that votes me. I scumread bad pushes though, and from your POV i would definitely scumread Hectic's push towards you, or at least get a bit paranoid for it rather than reinforcing my townread of him like you did. Even moreso when he enters d2 with a spare-worthy townread of your slot. Where's Hectic paranoia now? Where's yours?

[Farkran]

Thanks, Chara, for having the patience to point out the flaws in Farkran’s thinking FMPOV. I do not have that patience lately.

It’s remarkable how in sync I am with Chara in this moment which is major townpoints in my book.

It's sad when i realize that Amrun is still probably my strongest townread, despite posts like this. It's not about mafia being black and white, it's about doing something to prevent people from getting away with no scumreads, no reasoning, bad progression and logical fallacies. Please look at the current gamestate:

Replica = 3 scumleans on Farkran, Psyche, Nacho, not willing to vote.
Chara = 1 scumread on Farkran, was willing to vote, yet just recently unvoted so i guess that leaves it with no scumreads as well.
Psyche = 1 halfassed scumlean on almidia, not willing to vote; doesn't even include Chara in them despite Chara being the highest offenders in "suji's townslip was ambiguous" category.
Hectic = 3 scumreads on Farkran, Amrun, Almidia, not willing to vote.
Almidia/Bingle = lurksheep, i was really expecting more from this slot, but it isn't delivering.
Nacho = lurking, same as almi/bingle.
Chemist = 1 scumread on Nacho. Chemist improved significantly today, i could see him being town, maybe, but this is not even close to spare-worthy, if spare-worthiness will ever be a thing for me. He is the only one who was willing to read my wall with a grain of salt though - impartially, not immediately sheeping me, but not immediately ditching my case either.
Amrun = Possibly the only slot making some sense right now, not spareworthy either but still the closest thing to that. I can't possibly understand why Hectic is such a high townread for her though. Actually, as of writing this post, i'm not sure if i would place Chemist or Amrun first.

I mean, i am trying, really, i'm trying to read this game with only townhunting in mind, like almost everyone else is doing right now. But it seems that all the scumreads are the easiest slots to push, whereas the townreads are where the consensus is. How does this NOT ring a bell? Just look at the names. It's pretty much always either Farkran or Almidia, yet we have no votes at all. How does this NOT ring a bell? Do you really assume the scumteam is that bad?

[Farkran]

By the way, 2.30 AM. Good night everyone.

[Farkran]

@Farkran: I think the ideas behind what you are saying are sound. People should not be excused from making scumreads, and should be accountable for their progressions.

However, the way you’ve gone about it here just leaves me wondering if you’re really digging for intent. A couple of times I really felt like they were misrepresentative of what was going on at the time, or like focusing on the surface and not what’s underneath.

Ok. Can you talk to me about what, specifically, i misrepresented in my cases? Where i focused on the surface rather than digging below it?

Especially the second part - this is a thing i got often recently, every time i was town and the comment came from town. I don't even want to argue about our alignments right now, i mean, ultimately the purpose of any in-game exchange is to discern alignments, but right now i don't want to focus on the "we're town" aspect of my sentence. I want to see where you found that i was mistaken/misrepresentative/superficial, and what should i have done differently in your opinion.

I'll start by saying that it is not true that i don't look for intent behind words. Words are the first thing you are "hit" with when reading a post, of course - the first impression you get is that given by the what words were used to build your sentence, the "Tone". The second is the "Content", which is the whole sentence and its meaning, and it's different from tone in that it is WHAT you are saying rather than HOW you are saying it - two sentences which are utterly and literally the truth about a specific argument, could be vastly different in tone, and that could lead to believe the truth is offered by an instinctive person (usually, indicative of town - you could stop there to form a tone-based townread) or structured (NAI - you need to delve deeper). Third in line there is intent, or WHY did you say what you said. When the tone is structured and the content is truthful, you may ask yourself if the post, despite being the truth, was offered with helpful or malicious intent.

To provide a concrete example, i had to reread Hectic's ISO a couple times before realizing that his progression on Chara was scum indicative. Why did i re-read Hectic specifically and not another player? Because i was skeptical about Hectic behavior during the end of d1, specifically starting from his interactions towards Chara. Then, the d2 post where he promotes a spare on its slot rang another bell to me, that resonated with his previous d1 post where he voted Chara. I went back and checked, and found out that the first fight vote wasn't particularly off tonewise or contentwise - but when Hectic enters d2 promoting a spare on Chara, i asked myself what was the purpose of that. How could it be a genuine scumread? Why would hectic place a pretty much vanity FIGHT vote on Chara for so little reason, when he was strong on his own spare (and ultimately on sparing suji too)? Why does Hectic enter d2 with a preference for the 4-spared route and includes Chara in it, after what happend there? I thought of one possible reason: distancing. And that's the second bell that alarmed me: why isn't Chara AT LEAST a bit paranoid of this, instead introducing itself by healing hectic? Why didn't it ask Hectic for an explanation? That is, because Chara accepted the distance put between them as a good thing. That's what led me to think they are the most plausible scumteam right now. Everything that i can think of right now would match this theory. This does not mean it's 100% correct, but i do want to pursue it, engage more with the people involved (nothing from Chara made me change my mind, though), and possibly get a flip to learn more.

There are other scummy slots out there, like Psyche and Replica for instance, but they are... different. I already explained myself, but to reiterate: they both seem more wrong than scummy. There COULD be scum intent behind their posts (psyche pushing for a very weak spare-based strategy including himself, Replica using math to conceal potential spare pushes on partner, etc), but it may also be explained by them just not being able to see eye to eye with me. By discussing a lot with Replica, i think that's more likely the case. He's pretty much as passionate as i am about his opinions, he is consistent tonewise and contentwise, despite being inconsistent logicwise and being unable to associate math with psychology/sociology. Psyche is a bit "worse" than replica, alignment-speaking, because he refuses to engage completely with me, but as i said the fact that he is mocking me (i don't mean this offensively, but you are fooling around with me and my reads, psyche) rather than defending himself, attacking me or trying to pocket me is... not what i would expect from a scum with his player profile.

[Farkran]

And, having just posted yet another huge wall about Hectic, i find myself liking this:

HURT: Farkran
will talk about him more tomorrow...

this is more to represent my scumread than to hope to lynch him right now...
still prefer SPARING 4 but if i get a confident scumread... lynching is also fine...
we'll see if my reread of him gives me that...

Much more than this:

snip

HURT: Hectic

I’m not going to read ISO’s and I’m sheeping you because Amrun says you logic is shit without disagreeing with any results. When the consensus seems to be “the new guy can solve the game for us!” actually pushing something is probably a town move and I don’t see signs that anyone else has done so.

However, there is a possible explanation about what Bingle just did and i think it would be worthy to pursue it.

[Farkran]

Perhaps it would be more understandable as a detailed timeline:

1) Chara townreads Hectic because of Hectic content
2) Hectic reaches Spare-1, Chara unvotes and states Hectic is not towny enough
3) Hectic scumreads Chara because of point 2
4) Chara puts back Hectic in its top townreads
5) Hectic unvotes Chara but is still suspicious of it
6) I scumread Replica
7) Chara scumreads me because i scumread Replica
8) Replica townreads Chara because it scumreads me
-d2 happens-
8b) Hectic now townreads Chara for no reason at all
9) Hectic now scumreads me because i scumread him
10) Suddenly, Hectic, Chara and Replica formed a townbloc of their own

literally just because of how the players involved are reading themselves

whereas i am pushed as a scumread because i scumread them.

Just no.

I think this list is the thing that struck me the worst. Chara did a good job of breaking it down point by point and I don’t have time to do that myself, but I think any list with reasons like “Chara scumreads me because I scumread Replica” and “Replica townreads Chara because it scumreads me” (demonstrably false) as well as saying people do things for “no reason at all” is not in good faith, and is not trying to determine intent behind actions. This read strongly to me like trying to paint actions in the worst possible light, the opposite of that.

Now, the wall you just did to me, Farkran, I don’t dislike. That reasoning I can understand. I don’t really agree with it, but it’s a train of thought I follow. This quoted post, definitely not. There are smaller less egregious examples littered throughout but this post in particular I had a real problem with.

I will refer to the first point 8 as point 8, and the second as point 8b - sorry for being unable to count properly.

The main staples of that case are points 2, 3, 4, 5, 8b. I dislike how Replica melded into it, because it really looked like a chainsaw defense, but this is also true for Chara with regards to them scumreading me. Hectic's reasons to scumread me are not solid either, i wish he would engage more about how his vote is not a omgus, but he said he will talk about it later so i'm looking forward to that. Ultimately Hectic/Chara makes a lot more sense - i am also looking forward you to explain to me why you disagree with me or what you would have done differently than i did in my most recent wall, so we can talk about this later when we both have time (i'm working away from home today, until like ~10 hours from now, i will read from mobile from time to time).

[Farkran]

I mean I just basically disagree with your conclusions since I townread the people in question.

So... you think my case is correct, but the conclusion is wrong because you townread those people - i assume you townread them for a reasoning stronger than mine, which could be, say, not enough room for scum (since you sfumread almidia more than them), or they have displayed a townier mindset elsewhere?

Can you lead me to understand your reasons, which i am evidently missing?

[Farkran]

Sorry if I was unclear, since I do understand how you read that post - I disagree with a number of your reasonings as well, such as Replica townreading Chara for scumreading, which I think is fairly obviously untrue. You make a few good points and a few bad points and I ultimately disagree with your conclusion.

That was my interpretation of what happened at the moment of writing the post. I have, at least partially, reconsidered how Replica was involved into it. I'd still like to hear your towncases of Hectic and Chara, up to date with d2 content.

I finally bother yo put my alimdia scumread to words and literally no one has a single word to say about it?

I didn't like Bingle's recent posting and his Hectic vote to be fair, but without a flip i'm not making much of it. I would have him above the null line, but that's mainly because i wish to explore alternatives first, and because i think we can get more out of his slot. I know town!Bingle can produce good content as town, even when not particularly interested in the game he's playing. Still referring to the cult game modded by Kerset, for the record. As for almidia, i wasn't scumreading him before he went MIA and replaced out. I wouldn't be satisfied to compromise on his lynch today, there are far better names i can think of, and i believe those reads can be refined before day end by talking more about them (this is mostly wrt hectic/chara and to a lesser extent replica/psyche). I also want to hear what Nacho has to say, he is also a townlean of mine that i think could contribute to the current discussion.

To provide a concrete example, i had to reread Hectic's ISO a couple times before realizing that his progression on Chara was scum indicative. Why did i re-read Hectic specifically and not another player? Because i was skeptical about Hectic behavior during the end of d1, specifically starting from his interactions towards Chara. Then, the d2 post where he promotes a spare on its slot rang another bell to me, that resonated with his previous d1 post where he voted Chara. I went back and checked, and found out that the first fight vote wasn't particularly off tonewise or contentwise - but when Hectic enters d2 promoting a spare on Chara, i asked myself what was the purpose of that. How could it be a genuine scumread? Why would hectic place a pretty much vanity FIGHT vote on Chara for so little reason, when he was strong on his own spare (and ultimately on sparing suji too)? Why does Hectic enter d2 with a preference for the 4-spared route and includes Chara in it, after what happend there? I thought of one possible reason: distancing. And that's the second bell that alarmed me: why isn't Chara AT LEAST a bit paranoid of this, instead introducing itself by healing hectic? Why didn't it ask Hectic for an explanation? That is, because Chara accepted the distance put between them as a good thing. That's what led me to think they are the most plausible scumteam right now. Everything that i can think of right now would match this theory. This does not mean it's 100% correct, but i do want to pursue it, engage more with the people involved (nothing from Chara made me change my mind, though), and possibly get a flip to learn more.

Farkran pal.
why does loser!Chara unvote loser!me yesterday while I'm on L-1 from being SPARED (iirc)?
y'know, what's the purpose of longing out the SPARE on me?
and why does loser!me ask Suji not to hammer?
i wanted to hear from the two replacements so i asked Suji to not hammer.
admittedly, i'm been putting off rereading you and the EoD yesterday because it's a lot, and i mean a lot to go through.
like, the page number this game is relatively short, but the posts are

thick

.
but tomorrow i'll hopefully put some time aside an explain my Chara townread based on her EoD actions, and i'll have another look at you.
hopefully not another broken promise.

I have already explained quite in detail about why scum!Chara unvotes scum!Hectic and why scum!Hectic wants to extend the day. It's in my late ISO, see my exchange with Chara around post ~1100 (give or take a few). My main case, however, is for you as my main scumread and Chara as your partner. What i would like to hear from you is:
1. What made you scumread Chara when it unvoted you in late d1. It was you who chose to extend the day, why would you go as far as to cast a vanity FIGHT vote on Chara for sparing Replica in your stead? It's weird, almost like you already savored the spare on you but then regret not grabbing it when you had the opportunity to. Chara backpedaling using your publicly displayed regret as a reason to townread you is also quite weird, but we're still in the realm of the acceptable here.
2. What made you reconsider Chara so much as to include it in your 4-spared route today? It really, really seems to me that your whole behavior around Chara is based on how Chara read you.

And finally - but i guess you will not answer this - i am very concerned about how Chara itself reacted to this really unusual progression toward it. Chara should have questioned you about your sudden and significant change of mind. At least develop a little, sane amount of paranoia towards your slot. Instead, it just entered d2 healing you. Without saying a word.

(5-posts were made before this)

[Farkran]

WRT Almidia/Bingle, i also got the impression that Amrun is scumreading the slot mostly because of Almidia, not because of Bingle. Bingle just happens to be very unhelpful towards his own cause, and i am failing to understand why - unless Amrun is actually correct, but that would leave me with a disarray of reads and with a gamestate that i cannot comprehend. Besides, as i said, i don't think Almidia was particularly scummy. I just skimmed his ISO again, but every time i do i stumble upon the multipost readlist which i still kinda agree with. This may be agreement bias, but that's as true as Amrun could be disagreement-biasing herself towards Almidia.

To clarify, post 294 still reflects a lot of my current thoughts. Post 358 is exactly how i felt about hectic when i replaced in - he was not a scummy slot, but he wasn't worthy of all the townreads he got either - and besides, i would also agree with almidia that fighting is still strictly better than sparing, but we've beaten that horse enough.

Then... he went V/LA, came back just to spare sujimichi (completely NAI at that point in time), promised to deliver content but instead replaced out. Bingle replacing in is... very anticlimatic.

(again, 5-posts preview at the time of submitting this)

[Farkran]

Amrun, can you tell me what from Almidia sounded to you as busywork? Because to me it seems that you two were just disagreeing about your reads. Also, there's the point where you are shipping a Farkran+Almidia team but i know that cannot be true - regardless though, you are entitled to believe it because we pretty much are forced to work with preflip associatives in this game (which is something i would promote in standard games too, though, so that's not a problem at all). I recall you saying that Almidia was trying to deflect my wagon by saying Pine was scummier - and from my POV it is more than reasonable to believe so, but that's not the point - the point is that, where's Almidia scum intent in defending my slot if i flip town? To elaborate: isn't your scumcase of Almidia at least partially based on the assumption that i would flip red?

If anything, i'd be scumreading Bingle more than how i'd scumread Almidia at this point, but i would like to see Hectic flip first, because if i am correct, Bingle is never scum in this game.

[Farkran]

I'll get back to this tomorrow, 2 AM - goodnight!

[Farkran]

7.5 days to deadline. It's not late, but worth noting that the VC in the last 3 days has been pretty much stalling. My current interpretation of the gamestate is that there are very few people willing to commit to their reads. I don't like that, but there are too many offenders to say this is scum indicative - however, the thought has crossed my mind that scum might be exploiting this situation to blend in and wait for wagons to form in order to jump on them as they conveniently see fit. This is in direct contrast to my current gamesolve of Hectic/Chara though, and might be pointing towards Psyche and Replica more than anyone else. Why aren't those two voting towards their supported reads, given how strong they say they feel about them?

@Nacho and Chemist, besides not voting, you two are probably the main reasons for the day stalling - Nacho more than Chemist in this regard, also because Chemist very likely wants to hear more from his top scumread Nacho specifically (as do everyone, to be fair).

Fight Votecount 2.1

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

(1)

Amrun

By the way when did this happen? I think... never? Amrun should be voting Bingle in this VC

@pops

[Farkran]

so the reason Chara's posting was town EoD yesterday was because i found myself agreeing with most of what it was saying while it also come off as natural.
and the way they made the flurry of posts when they said someone was calling their posting gold which inspired them to post more, the tone was really towny there.
i liked the progression on Psyche where Chara doubted Pscyhe actually found it so hard to believe that Suji would lie in a different game's PT, but then warmed up to him by pointing out 1079 was really town which i found really towny too.
also it's reason for reading me as town based on my annoyance at not asking Suji to hammer felt very genuine.
but honestly?
a lot of it also comes from them pushing me as a SPARE so much.
i don't see the loser-motivation in it's read there since SPARING me won't give it towncred because of no flip, and once i'm gone, my townread on Chara doesn't matter so will make it harder for it to get SPARED.
it's risky for it as a loser considering the 4 SPARE route with what we know is a town already SPARED, and no guarantee of getting SPARED the next day, unless it's exactly scum with Replica.
it was also pushing me as a SPARE over both Sherlock and Suji in 806 who were widely townread and very probably SPAREs the next day if they weren't SPARED then.
bad idea if they're going for 4 SPAREs as a loser and actually want to get SPARED at some point.
it can only nightkill one of them.
i guess a lot of this only makes sense from my perspective and i can see more now why Chara+Hectic works as a team in Farkran's mind.
but eh.
HEAL: Chara

Eh... i could believe that town!Hectic can townread Chara because it was pushing him earlier in d1, but i still have a hard time believing that town!Hectic has town!Chara as such a strong read, after that spare didn't actually go through also because of Chara itself. Not only because of Chara - it was Hectic who asked Suji not to hammer the spare - but Chara did unvote, and Hectic scumreaded that move enough to place a fight vote on it. Then Chara entered d2 voting for a Hectic spare again, and now Hectic wants to spare Chara. I can't move on from this, no matter how hard i try to see it from different angles. I respect Hectic as a player after i have seen him in action recently, and i think a genuine town tone is fully within his skill range even as scum. Perhaps i need to dive into some of his scumgames, but even if the tone is good, the confidence he has in his reads is just out of place to me. There are townier slots than Chara to spare, if that's the route of his choice. Why Chara specifically? Why not Replica or Amrun? From your POV, @Hectic, they should all be townier than Chara.

I mean, you started scumreading me because i wasn't willing to spare Suji after i called him IC (before his claim), correct? That was before my 1v1 with Replica - would you think me and Replica was SvS? I thank you for respecting our ability to fake our mutual frustration, but to be fair i think it would be much more believable to think of it as TvS or TvT, from your POV. The {TvT, TvS} odds contain only one S and you are fairly strong on that S being me, so how could Replica be scum in your eyes? He should be your highest townread at this point in time, yet, you're once again pushing Chara as your main spare. Is it because you have lost faith in my scumread, or in your Replica townread? If so, why?

And going through this from the other way around, i still think Chara should be way more paranoid of Hectic. Besides being tonally appropriate, Hectic's content is not top quality, and neither are his actions. Chara was not as confident as Replica, Hectic or Psyche about choosing the spare route, so why is it placing all its faith on a Hectic spare instead of exploring fight possibilities for today?

[Farkran]

This is in direct contrast to my current gamesolve of Hectic/Chara though, and might be pointing towards Psyche and Replica more than anyone else. Why aren't those two voting towards their supported reads, given how strong they say they feel about them?

Tying back to your speculation that scum might be sitting and waiting for wagons to hop on, I think I've been pretty explicit why I've been hanging back. I strongly felt like I needed new angles and content to really make progress, one way was from Nacho showing up and giving a dearth of content, but now I've more settled for taking a step back to take a new perspective to ISOs. I'm very conscious that I tend to plow into the same ISOs over and over and run myself in circles; I'm trying to be more cerebral about how I approach reads.

The only strong read I also have is from Chara's interaction with me/Amrun, and as mentioned in my opening post I want more. I think you have a point that I'm nervous to commit to it. My goal for the day has been to get 1/2 really solid townreads, and not getting them has led to me being less proactive with my vote than I probably should be.

HEAL: Chara, still not eager to commit to it but Farkran is right that I should be making use of my vote.

Yeah, you respond very well (by well i mean, in a towny way) to pressure - at this point i think you would know that i mentioned you in the post you quoted here basically just to "summon" you back to the thread, am i correct? Yeah, i'm fairly confident Replica is town now. I will reread that Chara exchange with Amrun to see if you can have a point. Can you help me by highlighting the posts where you think there is almost conclusive evidence that Chara is worthy of your spare over any other player? I don't even want to bring back the spare vs fight argument, that's something we will probably never agree about - i just want to see we can find some common ground to work with because i no longer think you have enough scum equity to consider fighting you soon.

(lots of preview posts in-between)

[Farkran]

chara seems a weird spare choice for today
i don't know how anyone can be

that

certain he's town

I am having serious issues with Psyche. How are you certain of anything? You seem to be agreeing with what was consensus townread (Hectic) and consensus scumread (Bingle), yet you're not committing onto anything and you've been doing so since your very entrance. Now that the consensus around those slots is being questioned, you are completely lost. You seem to have no reads of your own and are just waiting for wagons to form up. Your posts have a very superficial internal consistency, but you pretty much do not offer content - you only answer when directly prodded, mostly by mocking the questions addressed to you. I mean... what are you waiting for?

The only player you were confident enough in sparing as to put your weight onto it was Sujimichi and, well, no shit there, it was the greatest townslip ever - followed by a FN claim. There was only one town PR, you know, that's not going to happen again.

[Farkran]

I feel like I don't really understand your post Hectic. It seems to boil down to why push to spare you as mafia Chara, especially over Sujimichi/Sherlock. This doesn't really seem convincing to me, given that Chara voted you earlier and was skeptical of the PT post's strength. 180ing isn't a good look at all, and in both 3/4 spare cases you want people whose alignment is in question to get it over strong consensus townreads.

I was happy to see Chara react with more content in response to my "posting gold" comment, but I had also made it clear that responses like that (Successfully getting others engaged) were exactly what I've been hoping to achieve this game. That unfortunately makes the desire very exploitable.

a lot of people were reading Suji and Sherlock both as strong town at that point.
SPARING me means one of those is very likely to get SPARED the next day.
it's not a good plan for loser!Chara who at that point knows all 3 of Hectic, Suji, Sherlock are town.
and doesn't know who the FN is who is another potential free SPARE.

This makes only one third of sense, by the way.

1) It only applies if you are town, but let's assume you are even if your role PM is for your eyes only;
2) It only applies if you assume scum!Chara was also going for a 4-spared route, but that's not what it was promoting in d1.

I mean before the Suji townslip, or the FN claim, there was no real reason to go for a 4-spared route except for those who were already very strong on pursuing a spare-heavy strategy, such as Replica - once again, your reasoning should be applied to Replica much more than it should be applied to Chara, from your POV.

[Farkran]

If I’m not misreading hec’s case it boils down to Hectic is t/t or s/s reading the hec/Chara interactions and knows he’s town via role pm. Is that more or less accurate?

Quite, but not entirely. At least with regards to the case i am pushing right now, both Hectic and Chara could be individually scummy on top having great associative equity. Scum!Hectic heavily implies scum!Chara because of the very weird interactions between the two, but town!Hectic does not clear town!Chara. Nor does it -necessarily- imply scum!Chara, for that matter. I have commented on Hectic's case in my previous post though, and i think you are correct if you analyze

his post only

.

However, i do not think there is anywhere near enough consensus on a sparing resolution for today - scum!Chara could count on a mislynch and cash in the credit for sparepushing town!Hectic in this scenario. Otherwise, it could just push for its partner d3 and d4, assuming we will allow it, or rely on wifom - there is enough disharmony to think such a strategy would work, if that is the case.

Currently i see very little reason to townread hectic though, and a red flip there goes a long way towards a correct solve. I am willing to explore different possibilities though - have you gathered some thoughts about the gamestate since you replaced in, besides sheeping me? I believe you are nullscum/scumleaning Amrun, am i correct? Have you got anything else?

[Farkran]

Ooh, I think I have a new read. I disagree w/ Farkran on a lot of things but I think I have very little doubt that he's town compared to even Hectic. Seems super obvious that he's looking for scum in all.

oh for me certain just means i'd feel safe betting the whole game on it. not 100%. could it be 80%? idk it's a tough thing to quantify a threshold like that; people have tried
i'd bet the whole game that you're town rn. and it'd be a good bet, wouldn't it, huh?

So... why, from your POV, are you not sparing me right now, even if you don't agree with my reads? Are you afraid that i could be spared too quickly and end the day, or are you afraid that i would be spared, period?

I mean - i have already said multiple times that i do not want to pursue a spare, so i wouldn't even vote myself if it comes to that. As i said, there's too much disharmony to trust a 4-spared route even if it includes me and the FN. I wouldn't be surprised if, after sparing me, i saw Hectic or Chara joining the New Home and not turning it into an immediate town win.

[Farkran]

Meh

I think you're starting to run too much on this gimmick now that i have pointed it out, but whatever. I'll give you a honest answer: forming wagons helps summarizing and advancing the gamestate. Wagon positions, counterwagons, transparency of progression can contribute greatly to the purpose of catching scum. Even quickhammers could be more helpful than a day stalling. I should not need to teach you how scum could be forced to bus his partner because his wagon is gaining momentum, or check if they had decided to deflect the wagon onto someone else instead. Wagons are useful today, but even moreso tomorrow - figuratively speaking, when you get a red flip and look back for associatives.

I do agree though, that if i had to be spared, i wish to be spared last. If i am nked before then, you know what to do.

[Farkran]

I understand the thought process behind TRing Fark for this, I just think there’s quite a number of people who would do this as scum, me included.

This is the correct level of paranoia to have around me. Or anyone, really, unless you have such strong meta experience with a player that you can bypass standard ways of hunting. There are people with near unlimited scumranges. Townreading said people under certain circumstances is ok, but those reads should never be 100% strength level in one sense or the other. I think this also applies to Hectic, or Bingle for that matter. Or Amrun herself.

I do think Amrun has done some things that are quite hard to fake as scum though, more so than almi/bingle. In that 1v1 i would side with Amrun, but then again i sided with Amrun even when she was 1v1ing sujimichi.

@Amrun, new question for you: besides Almidia being your highest scumread and having associative equity with me, what kind of info would you expect to learn from either flip on that slot? From post 1108 it seems that a flip there would get you significantly closer to a gamesolve even without a VCA available so far - why?

[Farkran]

[fight]amrun[/fight]

so i can have one on someone i dont feel confident about

So i get that right now, i am your highest townread and amrun is your highest scumread?

I'm trying to help you to help me, you know

[Farkran]

I think if alimdia is not scum, psyche probably is. And if alimdia IS scum, psyche probably isn’t. It really affects my view of the gamestate.

Hmmm... i agree with the theory, but i would lynch psyche before bingle at this point, and overall it seems a weak motive to push, although it makes sense if you townlean everyone else. Do you? Besides, if i am immensely wrong on my solve, i'd think Nacho/Psyche could be a valid alternative. I really dislike Psyche's recent posting, and his progression towards Nacho is... not good.

Spoiler: Psyche on Nacho

At very least, I'm sympathetic w/ suspicion against nacho. I think it's because I've picked up kinda high expectations for his townplay, and he doesn't seem to really be meeting them here. But that's so weak! I'm totally aware that it's so weak!

I don't like Hectic's or Sherlock's schtick. They're both quite distracting. I disagree w/ Nacho's mentioned rationale re:Hectic asserting the towniness of loose/chilled-out play. My experience is that it's way easier to relax in a game thread w/o the burden of having no idea who scum is. There's so much less responsibility for what you say in a situation like that - all sorts of bullshit becomes game!

Do agree though that Sujimishi's gameplay here is a lot different from his in micro 917. In general, Hectic's posts are reasonably substantive and don't seem very disingenuous. I guess in the end I do think the Spare call has some ground? Yeah, I'm actually willing to enthusiastically roll with that.

Ok, I feel better. I'm starting to get opinions. I'd rather we lynch people. But finding town can be so much easier than deciding someone's scum, in my experience. Ugh.

i don't think im SLing nacho anymore

I'd like to run a questionary to everyone.

Say you need to pick exactly one scum in {nacho, amrun, chara and suji}. Who do you pick and why?

I'm not currently interested in theories where there are no scum or more than one scum among those, the premise is that there is exactly one. Let's try it. It's going to be useful.

@Replica, Sherlock, Psyche, can you answer this for me? I'll ask Toriel to prepare cookies if you do

probably amrun. chara is null too though. i just haven't found any towntells in two relatively long isos.

Suji
Sherlock
Hectic
Nachomamma
Me

I'd bet the whole game on this entire group being town. And god surely hates someone in the scumteam if the IC isn't among these. I simply do not need any scumreads this game and don't care if you don't like it. Let's just end this and go next.

And then my nacho read has a similar basis to the sherlock read - he did a thing i doubt scum can organize the cognitive resources to do - but is weaker by comparison. I'd hope we could spare my other reads and even myself before committing to sparing nacho. We'll have many more posts, many more tells by then. But I'd still bet the game now that he's town, and all these reads are town. (It's a game - it's not like I'm betting a lot!)

replica's honestly a blur to me so many of you are just blurs how do people play this damned game

ok lemme try:
i think there's good evidence in his iso of trying, of reaching for and game-advancing reads and ways to convince people of those things. but i give a bit more credence to what i perceive as successes at that - in my experience it's kind of easy as scum to fake trying, after all (you can get through a whole game as scum by performing "unsucessful trying" - it conveys a town motive without needlessly preventing mislynches). i don't see any grand successes that scum only have weak reasons to pursue (and should find difficulty

cognitively

at achieving anyway), so i don't have any strong townread.

but yeah, lean town?

yeesh who does that leave?

Hectic TOWN
JTheophrastus Bartholomew Who?
Asriel Dreemurr Who?
Amrun HmM
Chara hmm

Nachomamma8 moderate town

Billy Pilgrim WHO?
Chemist1422 ???
SherlockHolmes TOWN
alimdia HMM
Pine TOWN

ok i'm unsubtly asking for an updated playerlist

i remember hearing some time ago that bert

[nacho -ndr]

gets really bored and disengaged as scum. is that a false memory?

would love to throw more red meat into the game but im wary of getting too engaged again and neglecting my job
i'm liking replica more for town these days. suppose it's smarter to save attempts at any detailed towncases for after scum takes a kill, though, right?
rather wary of chemist but if we had to lynch today he wouldn't be a very likely target at all
hectic still seems a fine spare. people are insisting that he's not, but all those cases suck. i could try harder to push the read, but it is pretty early in the day.
alimdia's slot is the closest thing to a scumread ive had in years. the iso genuinely reads as someone just going through the motions of scumhunting. some people are just disengaged, sure, but for a solid portion of the game alimdia more-or-less wasn't: they were engaged but producing shit anyway. it makes me feel better about it that the replacement isn't pinging very differently, though of course he's more outwardly shit; even that only looks like a "too scum" strategy to me. i'd be willing to lynch it just to get quicker feedback on whether i have any scumsense or not. there's a romance to a 4 spare win, but it'd be fun to win by the end of D3 too, yeah?

I feel surprisingly good about Hectic being town, considering it being page 5 and all.

There's a gorgeous feel good concoction brewing over there - a healthy mix of a strong, confident tone and a gimmick that I believe scum would be less comfortable implementing than town. The combination of both gives a loose cannon feel which I feel is significantly less likely coming from scum - as scum, you are forced to contend with your partners whispering in your ear and also silently sort of judging you whenever you are doing something crazy as Hectic is doing now whereas as town the people who lynch you are technically wrong, so it often feels less risky to go off the ranch in significant a way as Hectic has.

Now, some people might point out that Sherlock is also doing a gimmick and no I don't think it has anything to do with his alignment - that's his posting in general (aka seems like someone made a gimmick alt) and thus there's an expectation that he keeps up with it/a higher chance that's something he decided to do when he made the alt as opposed to a gametime decision like Hectic likely made here.

In the bits of scumhunting that he's done there's not obviously a ton but I do like that he pointed out the +town on Chemist's entrance. I don't understand why Billy ends up his spare vote instead of the Chemist (why go for the diluted townjuice when you can go for the pure stuff?), but I'm digging his vibes and so for now he is my spirit animal.

this post by nachomamma is still quite a strong one; his discourse surrounding the spare/hurt dilemma was clean too, and he pointed out convincing info demonstrating suji town even before SH came in and removed all doubt
even with his flakiness lately (and yeah that hurts my read of him), i still feel like a nachotown case is surprisingly easy to cohesively make. it's so easy to distinguish his vigor from that of someone like alimdea.

oh right but i'm supposed to avoid making towncases for anyone but hectic today ugh
i suppose it's too much to overthink this - it's a dangerous slope to start being ambiguous about my reads, especially if i'm hoping to be a viable spare candidate later on
the pressure towards ambiguity could be a good reason to lynch scum that i previously ignored though

ok that's all i'm doing today i hope.

I mean, all this progression happened while Nacho was missing from the thread. He went from SL, to betting the game on town!Nacho, to moderate townread while nothing happened at all in the meanwhile. I mean, i had a townread on Nacho initially when i skimmed through his ISO, but was kinda let down by Nacho first committing to a fight resolution and then later on he joined the spare wagon on Hectic instead. It would make sense for scum!Nacho to promote the town!Hectic spare if he wants to pocket/gain towncred and switch to mislynching later (this same reasoning i applied to Chara if i am wrong on Hectic). Also there are posts 306, 362 and lately 1163 which would fit with the 1-scum-on-my-wagon theory and could point to this read being correct, but i'm not sure i see it worthy to replace my main solve before getting a flip on Hectic.

Purely from a info standpoint, Hectic is always the best lynch and i don't think there is any doubt there given that he was the highest d1 spare wagon, today he's still in the spotlight, no NK on him when i didn't even start pushing his lynch (i was on Replica by d1 eod - although sherlock being widely townread for good reason could explain the nk choice). I would also be a solid info lynch too, to be fair. My point is that ultimately it's never a good idea to lynch the low hanging fruit Bingle today, and pushes in that direction could lead to 1. Psyche scum, as initially noted, where he is maintaining a scumlean on lhf!Bingle but wants to remove the way more active and dangerous town!Amrun; OR 2. Amrun scum -but hardly w/Psyche- or Amrun heavily pocketed by the real solve (Hectic and his social circle).

Although, both scum!Psyche and scum!Amrun would probably give in to mislynch town!Hectic at this point, rather than pushing elsewhere. Unless Hectic/Psyche is a thing instead of Nacho/Psyche. Hmmm... yeah, i don't know, but a flip on Hectic or Psyche would help greatly. I can foresee Amrun pushing even more against Bingle given how far i am extending my arm to defend him, but really it's just not a good lynch today unless it's caught scum, and i don't think he is.

[Farkran]

i need to do work today.

Farkran, i don't understand where your Bingle townread is coming from. i didn't realize you did TR him until you said you were sticking your arm out to defend him.

I am TLing him, because of Almidia posting (which i liked, before he disappeared) and because i think there are far scummier slots to focus on first. I explained myself several times.

Besides, i think you haven't been reading my recent posts at all. All the part where Hectic's reasoning applies more to replica than you was my case, not bingle's, and i explained why i think it does in my recent answers to hectic. It's odd to hear you prod Bingle to read the game when you aren't reading my posts either.

[Farkran]

I mean, i'm trying to do reality checks on my reads, not falling victim to death tunnels, etc, but i just can't interpret the gamestate any differently than what i'm been pushing today.

READLIST 2.0

TOWN

Suji

Sherlock

Chemist
Amrun
Replica
Bingle
Nacho
--- TRUE NULL LINE ---
Psyche
Chara
Hectic

SCUM

The slot i'd love to hear now is Nacho. He was a strong pusher for Hectic's spare, and there have been interactions with the Psyche slot i would like to have clarified. I want to see if anything has changed in the last ~25 pages worth of content. Posts 884-885 are full of promises that haven't been delivered.

[Farkran]

Wow, i summoned nacho and he delivered on his promises. I just skimmed over the pages so far, order schedule is: meta dive hectic, then multipost answers.

[Farkran]

Ok, first of all WRT Hectic meta: the problem is not about the sample size being small, it's about where the sample size was taken from.

Let's make a doublecheck of factual evidence.

Hectic's join date on mafiascum:

July 01, 2019

Micro 881

,

starting date: July 07, 2019.

Very likely his true first game on site, if not the first forum mafia that he has ever played. I don't know what the mafia society forum is, but chances are he didn't lie about being a complete newbie.

D&D Mafia

, a multiball 40p game which i am almost certain Hectic played while playing at least 5 other games simultaneously.

I tried looking for more scumgames from Hectic but in his wiki he listed only town games and i don't think i am combing the 150 pages of his post history to find more. This is not even the point. The points are:

1. Hectic has played dozens of games in-between his first and this one. Have you checked MY first game on this site? Newbie 1951, go take a look and tell me the amount of difference there is from that game to this.
2. I have direct experience of the recent town!Hectic, in this game and this townhunt based game. Hectic didn't play poorly at all, it's clear that both his gimmicking and his playstyle have improved greatly, honestly i don't see any issue with scum!Hectic getting vastly better since the two games used as a comparison.

My problem with Hectic is exactly that people are providing a super strong townread of his slot for either no reason or extremely weak, very likely wrong reasons. This is what makes me think there was scum on his spare wagon to begin with, and seeing how it mostly overlapped MY fight wagon in d1 i pretty much think it's a given. I changed my mind for a while when i thought there were other slots with high scum equity such as Chemist and Replica, but they've recently improved greatly; and Psyche, whom i am changing my mind on day by day but ultimately is not a strong read at all.

I mean, why is Hectic getting SO MUCH townread for SO LITTLE reason? I have a very hard time believing slots such as Chara and Nacho when talking about Hectic, the same as i have when Hectic talks about Chara, and Hectic talked very rarely about Nacho overall.

If i forcibly had to assume Hectic is town, i don't see Chara and Nacho aligned together though. One of them could be scum, still leaning towards Chara, and the most plausible partner is always Psyche. I already went a long way explaining how it only requires 1 spared scum to screw this game big times, unless we went EXACTLY for 3 spared + 1 scum lynch and i still don't get HOW YOU ARE SO CONFIDENT YOU CAN ACCURATELY GET THAT SPECIFIC OUTCOME WITHOUT LITERALLY ANY RELEVANT FLIP.

I have more to say.

[Farkran]

although I still do not think that sparing is anything other than terrible for D1 and really dislike that his last meaningful activity was pushing that especially when he earlier called it out as suboptimal

that's just how the game turned out for me.
if i had a scumread that didn't suck i would have pursued it, but i didn't. instead i had a townread that i felt really good about. so i pushed the townread. i don't understand why that was a sticking point for anyone.

I wish to reiterate a random thought that i had mentioned earlier but i didn't gave it enough importance.

Why was sherlock killed over hectic, if hectic is THAT widely townread? Note that i didn't start pushing Hectic before night 1. I was mostly pushing Chara, Replica, and to some extent Psyche. Sherlock was widely townread too, but i think there is another significant difference: sherlock was really strong against spares - he only changed his mind when he noticed conftown!suji - whereas Hectic immediately entered d2 with a 4-spared route advertisement.

[Farkran]

and these are genuine requests. it feels good to be back and to have people calling me town and saying that they're glad to see me but i think the game cracks open pretty solidly with a chemist lynch.
i feel the {Hectic, Psyche, Farkan, Chara} core is a pretty solid one and am open to prodding at those four.

i'm still gonna reread in the meantime but i'm high on life and ready to take a shot at living the dream so am more than happy to procrastinate on finishing on the read in the meantime unless there's something crazy i'm missing currently (like another player) but i don't think so!

Also i love how you are placing me in your townbloc exactly alongside my 3 highest scumreads, while also pushing my two strongest townreads as scum in {Chemist, Amrun}.

You must really believe i am terribly bad at being town to advocate sparing me in your current interpretation of the gamestate. Unless you are trying to pocket me today, douse the fires under Hectic's ass and get a spare on him whereas i get nked very shortly. How far am i from the truth right now?

This is the second time i've been reading people pushing me as an equal or even superior townread to Hectic, yet the only spare vote on me is actually Chemist. I do not care about being spared - again, that's not the point - the point is that this progression makes no sense at all.

[Farkran]

TLDR Hectic/Chara look aligned, hectics reasons for tr Chara apply equally well to replica and are thus maybe faked, and I’m pretty sure there was a third reason, but I don’t remember what it is.

Farkran also mentioned town having no reason to delay their own spare, though i disagree with that point pretty heavily given scum has even more reason not to delay their own spare.

For the record both town and scum have reasons to delay their own spare, especially D1.

Town could want to continue influencing the thread or they could think the spare route is likely to be infiltrated by mafia.

Scum, OTOH, need to continue looking town after being spared unless we literally spare both of them.

Fark, do you agree that this is/was your opinion? Has it changed? Why?

Yes, it is my opinion, stronger than ever. There's no reason people are townreading Hectic OR Chara this hard as to promote a spare on them. The only thing that possibly changed is that now Chara is no longer the only possible slot aligned to scum!Hectic and i can't make any sense out of that.

Can anyone tell me why town!Hectic would delay his spare wagon, when he was also voting himself at the time? Seriously. Why.

[Farkran]

pedit: that's also a TLDR. Farkran also mentioned town having no reason to delay their own spare, though i disagree with that point pretty heavily given

scum has even more reason

not

to delay their own spare.

WHY?

FN wasn't outed yet, it would have been optimal play for a spare-based strategy to have the FN use his powers over night and spare him today, in exchange for a 1/8 chance he would have been killed n1. Town!Hectic had all the reasons in the world to end the day quickly, whereas scum!Hectic got to be widely townread and is STILL widely townread - there was no reason to think that would change and scum!Hectic has no fear of being NKed either.

[Farkran]

i can also see chemist town tone early.

but chemist tone after i went on my long hiatus isn't so great and his progression from the "pine is just LHF and scum is pushing him" stage to his current reads are also not great.

Ok, can you produce a detailed scumcase of Chemist? Because so far i've only read about Chemist defending the lurkers - which i also found scummy at the time, but that points to a {Chemist, Pine=Psyche} solve.

Now Chemist is sparing me. Set aside that i know that i am town, you also have a very strong townread of me right now, so where's the scum intent from Chemist in sparing me in this gamestate? Who's Chemist partner? Amrun? She's as far as she can possibly get from being spared, what's the reason for Chemist to promote a Farkran spare in this situation?

[Farkran]

HURT: popsofyourface

HEAL: hectic

Ok.

Why? Serious question. Why do you now townread hectic based on a poorly assembled meta case of his first game on site and a 40p multiball theme?

Why do you townread Nacho enough to sheep him while doing a complete 180° of your previous read?

[Farkran]

I'm glad to see you flip your read on Chemist but feel like you might have taken it too far the other way, I think metaing him of all people should actually be really useful.

I think defending the lurkers+once when he asked a "Is that why you...?" question over a more open-ended one were the only things of his that have made me frown. Thinking about it, I could see him trying to pocket Farkran by only tackling his half of our exchange late in Day 1 but that's really tenuous and goes against my single strongest read atm.

Can you elaborate on this post?

I will not go over again our last exchange because it would be pointless right now, but please stop saying that math and personality are two separate things. If you have a strong competitive ego, you don't go for a 7% higher EV pacifist route over gaining progressively increasing information. At the time i thought it was scummy, but that's really just wrong. It does fit you a little better though, after i noticed that your talk is mostly about about government conspiracy and war analogies, but please. Don't do that.

Just elaborate the quoted post, i'd like to hear about your strongest read and your read of chemist specifically.

[Farkran]

Farkran - you seem to be viewing my Hectic read through the lens of "would this read be good if someone had it on me?" when in actuality the reason I am emphasizing Hectic's meta is twofold - one, he doesn't have a lot of experience playing scum, and two, he's extraordinarily uncomfortable when playing scum, which is the important piece. You don't get over being scared when you post as scum in a couple of months.

Second thing that I'll address right this second is I take exception with your assertion that wrong = bad. I was wrong yesterday; doesn't mean that I was bad. The only bad thing about your play right now is that you're reading with the intent to respond instead of actually listening to what people are posting; if you go all Rambo with your reads they're gonna suck more often and not simply because the game is too hard to be soloed.

I do not really agree with this post. It's not just about me, it's about the differences that everyone is bound to have between his very first game and any other game after having played a couple; and the difference between a 40p multiball theme vs a townhunt-based mini theme. Sure, the inexperience and uncomfortableness in playing scum can be taken into account, but the point is that i don't see anything that Hectic has done in this game that could be described as excellent townplay. I think your premise to create a strong townread of Hectic is wrong, regardless of whether Hectic is scum in the first place or if you are his scumpartner or not.

This leaves me with doubt as to where to look for scum right now. My first reaction as posts that comes off as "wrong" to me is aggressiveness, you know - the prideful sentiment that goes "i am perfect and everyone else is stupid!" - but after mulling over it for a while i find myself asking if i could be correct over almost literally all other players in this game or if i'm just being dumb. I don't see any reason to rule out the possibility of scum!Hectic being partnered with any one of his pushers, i.e. mainly Chara and Nacho. That would explain pretty much everything in this gamestate, so... i don't think i am being dumb, this time.

Every other solve presented so far does not convince me, really. I tried re-evaluating every theory that has been pushed so far and there are only a few that make sense to me. Let's make a recap:

1) Scum!Chemist = i literally cannot see a reason for him to push me as a spare unless we are exactly the scum team, which is an immediate no to me.
2) Scum!Replica = this might be subordinated to scum!Chara, pushing for a town!Hectic spare but hoping that today will not be resolved in a spare. Would explain what's going on, but they aren't even trying to push for a mislynch, and i no longer scumread Replica.
3) Scum!Amrun = Maybe-ish. Pushing for a town!Bingle mislynch would fit the scum agenda, but i have trouble finding a partner for her that she wouldn't be able to spare if following a spare-based strategy. The people who are currently farthest from being spared are exactly Amrun, Chemist and Bingle... which conflict with everything i have been saying so far. Otherwise she could just push to spare her partner and it wouldn't even be a hard feat to achieve.
4) Scum!Bingle = Maybe. I can see scum!Almidia coming back only to spare Suji, and scum!Bingle voting for a mislynch on town!Hectic. I have more of a hard time seeing scum!Bingle turning his read upside down and sparing town!Hectic, though. And i didn't scumread Almidia in the first place.
5) Scum!Psyche = one of the few solves that would make sense, given that he only has consensus reads at this point and is refusing to put his weight on any of them except for scum!Amrun. Whom i townread.

The remaining people are Hectic, Chara and Nacho.

If anyone can provide a solid explanation as to how is it possible that those three have such nonsensical interactions, and at the same time how both the wagon against me and the wagon sparing Hectic were exactly full town, i'm all ears. Really the only team that makes sense if we assume that sentence as true is Chemist/Amrun, since Amrun was the only slot present on Asriel wagon but not on Hectic spare wagon, but it's... like, way less plausible than almost literally anything else. Why would we pursue that solve as our main before getting a flip on Hectic?

[Farkran]

pedit: that's also a TLDR. Farkran also mentioned town having no reason to delay their own spare, though i disagree with that point pretty heavily given

scum has even more reason

not

to delay their own spare.

WHY?

FN wasn't outed yet, it would have been optimal play for a spare-based strategy to have the FN use his powers over night and spare him today, in exchange for a 1/8 chance he would have been killed n1. Town!Hectic had all the reasons in the world to end the day quickly, whereas scum!Hectic got to be widely townread and is STILL widely townread - there was no reason to think that would change and scum!Hectic has no fear of being NKed either.

I don’t think most scum assume the tides of being widely town read will continue tbh. I think that’s a faulty premise.

Can you explain why? There are no PRs and no flips that could change that, no night kills that could make him afraid to die before achieving the spare. Can you tell me how the general consensus on Hectic would change over night, if i didn't start pushing him? I mean... even now that i

AM

pushing him, he's the longest wagon in the town.

[Farkran]

Like, @Amrun, in a common mafia game i would agree with you. But in this specific setup, i really... don't. I don't think it's a coincidence that Hectic entered d2 by promoting a 4-spared route.

[Farkran]

currently at the point where the scumteam is exactly {Chemist, Amrun} and now that the rest of my reread will either be finding ammo for those two reads or finding places to make snarky comments while waiting for something else to jump out at me, but.......

I don't see where the read on me came from other than you not liking me defending the Pine/Asriel slots

And even if that's your issue, you still aren't putting me in a team with them

This. Big time, this.

[Farkran]

Scum!Chemist = i literally cannot see a reason for him to push me as a spare unless we are exactly the scum team, which is an immediate no to me.

I don't understand this at all. Scum doesn't push for a town spare because...?

Actually it would make sense if scum!Chemist hopes for a non-spare resolution today, and was pushing me because he thought i would never be spared in the first place... so he would be pushing for a town!Nacho mislynch with his fight vote, which was assumed to gather more appeal?

Eh... maybe, but i'm still missing a valid Chemist partner which is not me or Amrun. I could maybe buy Chemist/Psyche. I don't think that a Chemist flip would help though - it's certainly better than any spare, but i would like to compromise on something else.

[Farkran]

I don’t know what to think about nacho.

I think his treatment of the Farkran slot is off, as previously noted.

Thinking that Farkan is unreasonable or wrong at points isn't mutually exclusive with thinking that he's town as shit. Do you disagree with the case? Do you think Farkan as mafia would play a game that looks like this?

At first I thought that post was pretty yikes but it's better than I thought going through your reads.

I think your Farkran read is bad; my interpretation is very far from "batshit insane" scumplay, and closer to "it's terrible execution", but this is a war for another day as long as he's not up for a spare.

Amrun/me you really don't seem to be concerned with I guess is my criticism; like I really struggle to understand how you think this is in both of our ranges but are willing to just handwave it off for now.

And like, agree to disagree on Alimdia/Bingle, it's the slot I would most prefer to spare atm. Chara second, Hectic third.

So, now i have a player who is townreading me for how bad i am at being town, and a player scumreading me for how bad i am at being scum. Nice, thank you guys, i'm sure you are awesome players who have every right to look down upon me without having checked any of my meta, despite having offered it multiple times over the course of this game. I think i am worse as town than i am as scum, but i still have 100% winrate as any alignment - it's just 6 games, but i have been praised for both my town and my scum play so far. As i said, neither of your approaches to this game is exempt from flaws - pretty big flaws to be honest, given that you are at the same time pushing for a scumsided route and hardtunneling me in either way. The vast majority of people i have played with will confirm that i am pretty much unreadable as any alignment, so i just don't believe you're doing your job right.

Nacho could be scum, Replica will probably just feel bad postgame but i hope he'll have time to improve - there's much to work on.

Back to trying to solve this...

[Farkran]

Why? Serious question. Why do you now townread hectic based on a poorly assembled meta case of his first game on site and a 40p multiball theme?

Why do you townread Nacho enough to sheep him while doing a complete 180° of your previous read?

I don’t think nachos case on Hectic is S/S. I think, independently of that, that nacho is likely town.

The meta case on Hectic doesn’t seem like a bad one, at all, and I’m willing to BoP nacho. If I’m confident in his ability to townread and confident that he’s not pushing a spare through on a buddy, why not trust his spare read?

Also: I’m not reversing a read, but changing a sheep. I always thought your hectic case was more more :eyebrows: for Chara than hec, tbh.

I wouldn't BoP anyone ever, but that's just me. Also i don't know Nacho.

I can't push Hectic/Nacho with such confidence as i was pushing Hectic/Chara (this solve also takes a hurt from Nacho being so confident in Hectic town, though), but i still think a Hectic flip is what we need to progress in this game. He is just at the center of... everything. Regardless of being correct or not, we can move on from there with actually significant VCA from d1 AND d2. I mean, this is also true about me. If i could challenge Hectic to a gladiator 1v1, i would.

Also we have just crossed the 5 days line from deadline, highest wagon is once again a spare. I don't know how i could be more honest about saying that i wouldn't spare hectic even if he is somehow allowed by the mod to show his role PM, just as much as i wouldn't spare myself. I am willing to talk about a compromise lynch. If we don't want Hectic, i would like to go for Chara. If Chara is off limits too, i pick Psyche. Can we talk about this for a while? It's not like i can prevent the majority by myself, but can we please just... talk about our own scumcases to see if there is any common ground?

pedit: i really hate being unnecessarily toxic. Sorry. It's just so hard to cope with town sometimes. I'm trying to improve on that.

[Farkran]

Hey guys, I think Farkran is a serial killer because he’s shit at being 3rd party.

Well, i never played SK or any third party in my career. I played jester a long time ago, off-site, and i was vigshot n1 so i guess i was pretty bad.

[Farkran]

I have no idea why anyone wouldn’t want to spare today, unless they specifically want a 1 spare route, tbh.

Mathematically, the shift from spare to lynch should only reverse if we hit scum. We have the same information for d2 as we would have from a traditional lynch and a diverse enough pool of people who others think should be locktown that we can actually get information from who is shot. We should probably lynch tomorrow, but sparing here seems like a no brainer with the combination of strong townreads and gamestate.

Speaking purely from random chance, we have a 7/9 chance to hit town today. That is a good set of odds.

Actually, no. We had no flip d1, we made the FN claim. It's vastly different. Any and all votes after the claim (or the slip, for that matter) are almost irrelevant. If we persisted on fighting, we would have a lynch flip on someone else, a dead FN, and an alive sherlock.

Instead, we have one spared town which will serve no purpose unless we go for a 3 or 4-spares route, a dead sherlock, and literally zero info.

This is not going to change in d3 if we spare today, with the aggravating exception that we will not be certain we have spared town today, leading to potential instant losses or dumb mylo/lylo situations that could be entirely avoided.

"The combination of strong townreads", where do you see that? Half of the playerlist is scumreading the other half. I probably have never seen such a disharmonic social context in my entire life except for poor politics, and yet there are at least a couple non-scum players favoring the no-info resolution over the one that could actually help improving our reads.

I don't know what else to say.

Also we have just crossed the 5 days line from deadline, highest wagon is once again a spare. I don't know how i could be more honest about saying that i wouldn't spare hectic even if he is somehow allowed by the mod to show his role PM, just as much as i wouldn't spare myself. I am willing to talk about a compromise lynch. If we don't want Hectic, i would like to go for Chara. If Chara is off limits too, i pick Psyche. Can we talk about this for a while? It's not like i can prevent the majority by myself, but can we please just... talk about our own scumcases to see if there is any common ground?

Can we just talk about this?

[Farkran]

"Arrogant scum" is pushing it, I think he's more risen to the challenge of the game. Letting town continue to rack up spares is death, and most scumplayers think that unless they take control and lead they're not really proving themselves as players.

And please, Replica. Please, please understand that if i was scum here i would meet pretty much no resistance whatsoever in sparing me or my partner. "Letting town continue to rack up spares is death" is completely nonsensical.

When i replaced in i could pretty much quickhammer Hectic, kill random town, spare the FN d2, kill random town and still easily push for a spare on my partner. The way the gamestate is, i could probably push for a spare on anyone right now. Just look at how many people are townreading any random slot. Literally any.

[Farkran]

Can we just talk about this?

i think you need to start getting more comfortable w the idea that the day is probably not going to end in a way you approve of

Yeah. Except there is nothing comfortable in ending the day like that. It's not even like i could say, "let's compromise on this guy for a spare"! Because we will NOT know if we were correct and therefore it's completely useless.

The only spare vote i will ever cast in this game is on myself, when we are in a situation where 3 people have been spared and i am L-1 from being the 4th spare. That's literally the only situation where it makes more sense to spare rather than mislynching town.

[Farkran]

Akshually:

HEAL: Farkran

I have reasons to want to delay the hectic spare that I cannot elaborate into at this time.

Unless you have ongoing meta about hectic as a basis for this reasoning, you should really elaborate and let us progress with the day. Sparing me is not going to help. I wonder if it will ever be useful that i insist on it, or if you guys just made up your mind about taking the scumsided route for no reason at all.

I would like to teamwork, but i will never spare. We can talk about lynches though. Then, if you still want to spare a dubious townread over gainig info, i cannot stop you. But at least talking about them should not be against your selfmade rules. This is @everyone, not just bingle.

[Farkran]

Also I agree with Farkran that sparing today is totally different than sparing FN yesterday. Having no flip today makes me disgusted.

I’d probably vote to fight almost anyone that would go through rather than sparing anyone still alive.

If we fight today we are necessarily going the 1 spare route unless we hit scum.

Any lynch here is going to be on a townread of several people making it pulling teeth to achieve or very low information anyway. No one has strong scumreads.

Any nightkill here is going to be high information.

Also I agree with Farkran that sparing today is totally different than sparing FN yesterday. Having no flip today makes me disgusted.

I’d probably vote to fight almost anyone that would go through rather than sparing anyone still alive.

If we fight today we are necessarily going the 1 spare route unless we hit scum.

Any lynch here is going to be on a townread of several people making it pulling teeth to achieve or very low information anyway. No one has strong scumreads.

Any nightkill here is going to be high information.

I would very much like to go the 1 spare route, yes.

I don’t functionally disagree with anything else you’ve said but the idea of sparing any slot left and not knowing how it flipped is like maddening.

I would rather mislynch by a WIDE margin. At least we know.

Agreed a thousand times. Even with the first post, actually. If we get scum today, aiming for a 3-spare/1-fight is not that far from a plausible victory. That's one more reason to try and find scum early rather than later. I still fail to see how "spare earlier, lynch later" just because of slightly higher math chances could ever be superior to "lynch earlier, improve your reads, adjust accordingly".

[Farkran]

"Arrogant scum" is pushing it, I think he's more risen to the challenge of the game. Letting town continue to rack up spares is death, and most scumplayers think that unless they take control and lead they're not really proving themselves as players.

And please, Replica. Please, please understand that if i was scum here i would meet pretty much no resistance whatsoever in sparing me or my partner. "Letting town continue to rack up spares is death" is completely nonsensical.

When i replaced in i could pretty much quickhammer Hectic, kill random town, spare the FN d2, kill random town and still easily push for a spare on my partner. The way the gamestate is, i could probably push for a spare on anyone right now. Just look at how many people are townreading any random slot. Literally any.

Ah, yeah, give town two free spares and you easily get your scum partner on the third. This would have been very trivial for you, Day 1, replacing in and getting almost universally scumread until people started assuming your reads were too bad and nonsensical to be scum.

Did you just say that i would be scumread for quicksparing town? Twice?

Did you just say that scumpartners could not put solid distance between each other and pilot the gamestate that way, in case i get scumread for my quickspare?

Did you just say that quickhammers in general are always lynched the day after their deed?

This clearly shows your evident lack of experience with this game and psychology in general. Good luck playing with the assumption that town is always good and scum is always bad. If you are town in this game, you're doing a terrible job with your reads and strategies. If you're scum in this game, you are actually being good at getting townread because you are displaying what looks like genuine frustration. That's just how wrong you are regardless of your sincerity in this post.

I was going for a easy answer on this, but i have read your posts that come after this, so i will just point out that i kindly asked you to talk about potential lynches and your answer is literally "Farkran is bad and everyone townreading him is an idiot". I cannot possibly fathom how you can be disappointed if nobody listens to you. That would be optimal play in this game regardless of your alignment. /case closed

[Farkran]

I would very much like to go the 1 spare route, yes.

I don’t functionally disagree with anything else you’ve said but the idea of sparing any slot left and not knowing how it flipped is like maddening.

Your argument is functionally “Let’s play mountainous!”

The whole point of the setup is trading the uncertainty of spares for progressively stronger mechanical information, and spares are objectively more useful early than late. I am 100% opposed to lynching today.

Are you seriously saying that in 50 pages you have 0 reads that you’re comfortable going, “yup, that’s town.”

There are a couple wrong premises with this

The first is that we should avoid mountainous. Most spare routes are strictly worse than 11v2 mountainous or 8v2 + 1 FN.

The second is that mountainous should be based on EV alone. It shouldn't. As the amount of players increases, reads also progressively increase. Town only loses if it is exceptionally bad or scum is exceptionally good. In this game, i think scum is doing a good job at getting townread regardless of who is correct with their reads, which is why we should never spare in the first place. I will not play under the assumption that any player is better than any other AND the better player is also town.

We have found a "yup, that's town" level of content in Suji and Sherlock. Unfortunately we found them d1, and one of them was the FN. It would have been significantly better if we found them later, and the FN (ideally not within those two) was spared d2. In THAT scenario i would have been ok sparing from d2 onwards - but even then, during n3 sherlock would probably have been killed too so we would have to rely on good reads in New Home, regardless of sparing or lynching in d4.

TL;DR stop considering EV the absolute truth about how mafia should be played. Players and info are, unless the EV is so high that read accuracy is negligible.

[Farkran]

saying. But what is alarming for me is how he's VERY stubborn in all his beliefs/points. He doesn't concede any points to anyone, and always finds a way to disagree. At first, I thought it made no sense for scum!Farkran to enter DAY 2 attacking 3 townreads, but the more I think about it, the more I think scum!Farkran needs to do this if he doesn't want to take the loss, as all of {Chara, Hectic, Replica} are town. Which were the highest townreads entering day 2.

Farkran, I've always been for 4 SPARES.

Well

, mostly the skeletons, but they've even convinced ME. So, we entered day 1 promoting it, and we entered day 2 the same - with some good townreads. So, I don't see why you're trying to draw conclusions from that.

I do not disagree with everyone, but i do disagree with any strategy involving spares. Shortly after i entered this game and studied the setup a little bit, compared to the gamestate we were in (strongly oriented to a Hectic spare), i immediately thought that optimal strategy for scum was sparing themselves or their partner. Doing so would be significantly easier than pushing for mislynches, because you do not have to excuse yourself for being wrong when your scumread flips town. If scum had to be desperate against the lined up spares, all they have to do is killing within the list and promote their partner instead. Desperation would happen when, despite killing all the towniest slot, town still hasn't put scum!A or scum!B in the line-up. I don't know how this could even be argued against. This is not about EV. I am pretty much certain that scum has blended into the spare pushers, and all justifications against this theory are extremely naive. Town is not playing alone, and there's no reason to think that scum are always idiotic. It's not like they would come out and say "Oh, hey there! I'm talking to you, stupid town player(s)! Why don't you do exactly how i ask you to do?". They would go like "Sure thing town, you're doing great! Keep up with the good job!" and in the meanwhile laughing in their pt. The sooner you realize this, the better. Once again, not talking to Hectic specifically here -which incidentally is one of the slots that is promoting the good job done by the town so far- but to everyone who is actually town.

To resume the argument about me being stubborn though, it is true that i also disagree with some of the players pushing for fights that i think would flip town, but i'm way less hostile towards that resolution and i explicitly stated that, now that we are closer to the deadline and i haven't gathered enough consensus about scum!Hectic, i am willing to talk about compromising. Hectic is still my choice of preference, but i wouldn't be against a Chara or Psyche lynch at this point. To a lesser extent, Nacho, because i feel a Nacho flip would generate less info than the others. I would also be a good info lynch to reassess the game's direction, but obviously i'd rather not have to sacrifice myself for that purpose alone when there are better and possibly redflipping options.

Isn't the reason Farkran is pushing those 3 BECAUSE they are highly townread? Sure, he won't gain traction with any of those 3 to FIGHT them, but he will cast doubt on SPARING the three of them, which is a good result for scum!Farkran if they're all town. I don't remember the last time he ever conceded a point to any argument you/Replica/Chara/Psyche has presented. I'm not sure if scum!him originally planned to make himself a potential SPARE target today through these arguments though, I think his primary objective would be to derail the SPARE train.

No, i'm not pushing them BECAUSE they are highly townread, and i'm not pushing Replica anymore. I'm pushing Hectic/Chara/Psyche AND now to a lesser extent Nacho because of their interactions with each other. Hectic's progression on Chara does not make sense, and vice versa. I wonder how you could say that scum!me originally planned to make myself a spare target today when i fighted with my heart and soul against any spare route from the moment i replaced in in d1. I do not care about being spared, unless i am the last one in a 4 spared route. I have said multiple times that i'd rather be lynched.

We have found a "yup, that's town" level of content in Suji and Sherlock. Unfortunately we found them d1, and one of them was the FN.

It would have been significantly better if we found them later, and the FN (ideally not within those two) was spared d2. In THAT scenario i would have been ok sparing

from d2 onwards

- but even then, during n3 sherlock would probably have been killed too so we would have to rely on good reads in New Home, regardless of sparing or lynching in d4.

if you're of this opinion, then why weren't you okay with SPARING Suji who you regarded as an IC yesterday, and didn't know was our Friendliest of Neighbours?

Sparing d1 just does not make any sense. You do not go for slightly higher EV when you can improve your reads via info. First, you lynch and get VCA info, assess players' read accuracy, etc. Then, and only if you find very strong and specific evidence of players being town, you may want to spare. Not earlier. The whole assumption that sparing with a 2/11 random chance of being correct over sparing in a 2/9, 2/7 or even 2/5 scenario with ADDED INFO, is wrong.

[out of game note: see, even if i strongly disagree with pretty much everything hectic said and we are mutually scumreading each other, i always feel i can talk to him and enjoy the game. I wish i could see more of this in general, and i'm sorry if sometimes i am on the guilty side of aggressivity. At times i try to get on people's nerves on purpose, to test their emotional reactivity - other times, i'm just salty about how things go. But i mean no harm, and i enforce myself to stop before resorting to insults and curses. All of this is regardless of alignments or this game outcome.]

[Farkran]

I see...absolutely nothing in this game that is not a natural extension of Farkran's scumgame of Newbie 1958, which had a giant focus on pushing perceived inconsistencies in progressions, accusatory/loaded scenario assertions, and positing teams.

A lot of that perspective follows into towngames, I don't really feel confident in metaing him over what he's done this game but I'd say he generally seems to take a lot more account of motives and perspectives than he's done here, and seems less inclined to make cases and hardpushes than when he's scum based off of that game and Mini 2106.

There is literally no reason to townread this slot, at all, and at this point I kind of just have to accept that people are going to refuse to read into anything but appearance of effort.

I agree that I think townreads are excessive and this slot should never be spared.

This is correct.

In fact my best solve is bingle/farkran but I feel better about bingle dying today, although his recent posting is better but all mechanical so NAI.

If Farkran suddenly becomes viable I’d try there first.

This, on the other hand, is concerning. Not about wanting to lynch me, i have always said that i'd be a better lynch than Bingle. You were the one who disagreed - and this sudden 180° on our lynch order when Bingle conceded about sparing, by voting me no less, is... completely out of the blue for you. I could understand this coming from Hectic or Replica, who think pushing for spares is correct and townsided, but you don't.

What made you change your mind? The only reason i could think of would be that Bingle has no scum motivation to spare Farkran... but this implies both scum!Bingle and scum!Farkran, so... why the order swap?

[Farkran]

Oh wait, i think i misread. "If farkran becomes viable" as opposed to a spare resolution, not to a bingle lynch. Nevermind.

[Farkran]

Run tests on the other routes as well. If you take only EV into account, results will be roughly balanced. But i think flip info is superior to this particular EV difference in balancing.

When you talk about observed winrate, you mean statistical analysis, not gross random probability, correct? I'd be interested in reading some of that data. Besides, i also think it'd be a bit biased because, mostly, only good players are interested in playing mountainous. If we ran a 11v2 mountainous newbie matrix, results would be vastly different imo.