mini 2140: partition (this is over)

[Raya36]

We should consider lynching group 1 only if we're confident in townreading everyone in groups 2 and 3. Otherwise the risk is pretty high

Out of the people in those two groups, I believe I can read clidd and I could read Mohab at one point years ago

I agree with this. I do think it's likely that either 1 or 2 scum are in the large group but if none of them (or 1, (or 2 for mylo)) are in it we would lose the game like Morning said. I think it's too risky unless we are really confident in townreading those in groups 2 and 3. There are just too many ways for lynching group 1 to go wrong for me to ever be fully comfortable lynching it though. In the end it's a gamble so unless we strongly townread those outside of it I wouldn't.

Anyway,
Slight townleans on Morning and Cat for the speculation.

I think our biggest disadvantage is a lack of ability to pressure other players since it's diffused across the groups, and thus a lack of scum hunting.

I think sorting the players

in

the groups should be priority as normal, and inorder to do that we need a way to apply pressure to individuals. So what do you guys think of lynching groups based on a pseudo lynching individuals?

We can use hurt tags and use them to maintain our own vote count. Then when a

player

gets a majority, we lynch that group. If the player is in group 1, we reset the count and begin again. If yet another player from group 1 gets majority, we lynch that group.

Otherwise I think discussion is likely to be limited to speculating about where scum placed themselves and going around the wine/yomi cycle

@Kanna same, I initially joined because Clidd came out of his newbie game hiding hole, and was excited to see you and dsj signed up! It feels like a conspiracy.

I definitely agree we should scumhunt and choose the group we lynch based on who we think is scum. And I also agree we should only lynch group 1 if we have a general consensus on at least two players in the group being scum. Speculation on where scum placed themselves is good but it can only get you so far.

I think group 1 definitely has a scum member in it, but we could use that to our advantage in D2 rather than risk a lynch on group 1 with it.

I like this a lot. I don't think I'd be comfortable risking group 1 unless we are sure about the other groups being town but we don't have to lynch group 1 to use the fact that it probably has scum to our advantage. I think this is the safest move with the most potential to be beneficial to town. I highly doubt scum placed all 3 members in group 1 so I say we lynch whichever of group 2 or 3 has a member we scumread in it if we do.

[Raya36]

Scum would just put all 3 in group 1 knowing that nobody will self-lynch, and then sweep the game from there.

This is the type of game where it could be beneficial to self-lynch so idk if that's fully true? I'd be more than happy to lynch my group if I think 2+ scum is in it.

[Raya36]

VOTE: group 3

You are voting your own group?

What's wrong with that?

I want to be here on day 2.

The only ones who should be more concerned with being alive D2 than lynching scum is scum

[Raya36]

VOTE: group 1

I think this is the shortcut to victory.

I don't like Albert's insistence on group 1. I don't see any consideration of the risk of lynching that group and just running on the assumption that scum put 2 or 3 of themselves in there.

Safety in numbers.

This argument doesn't even make sense? I don't see how scum putting all three in one group being safe just because they have the numbers in that group.

I don't think Albert is scum but I don't like his push for group 1 and I don't think he's really considering the risk of it or the possibility that 2 or 3 scum aren't in the group. If he was scum trying to push a lynch on group 1 I don't think he would be this obvious about it.

I see. I liked how he was thinking about how to play the setup, which seemed natural. and he did end up saying to not lynch group 1 today

He ended up saying to not lynch group 1 unless we found 1 scum in there. Finding a town or two who look like scum in 8 players is very easy. Mafia wouldn't work if that wasn't the case every game. So, my fear is that he knows this and is eventually setting himself up to vote group 1 in the future.
Secondly, it doesn't consider the possibility of there being 1 scum in group 1 who acts like a "jester" of sorts.

This is an interesting thought. Townlean on Hoctac

Daenerys and I both agree the setup talk is getting overdone and is annoying.

I like Ame's 34 for trying to make progression.
In contrast enomis' 40 is bad. And I dislike their later posts too. The demoralization in 90 seems fake.
I also don't like Raya's 74. Lots of "uh huh"ing and easy agreements.
"I definitely agree we should scumhunt and choose the group we lynch based on who we think is scum."
like really?
Hoctac's 81 is a good explanation of why the mechanical discussion is pointless.
Morning Tweet needs to start scumhunting.

VOTE: enomis

-dragons

D&D is town for this. As I said earlier speculation of how scum are split can only get you so far. Scumhunting instead is town-oriented and I also like what they said as well.

I checked the other partition game from 2011 to see how it played out. Scum were spread out one was in group 1, one was in group 2, and another was in group 3. On the vote count there was a message on day 1 saying groups have changed and vote count got reset. A scum player got switched to another group and the group that got lynched on day 1 were all town. I wonder if the same thing is going to happen here. Lynching in group 1 does look risky if they are all town plus add the group change on day 1 if that happens. My guess is one scum will be in group 1, one in group 2, and another in group 3.

1 in group 2 is crazy, there would be confscum from PoV

Can you explain this?

Clidd and Albert for scum

What are your thoughts on Clidd's entrance?


Looking into group 2 and 3:

Group 2:
I don't think Albert is scum based on what I said at the start of this post.

Clidd's entrance seemed ok to me and his group analysis seemed town oriented. It was very straightforward and organized and summarized the options well. His posts after seemed good too.


Group 3:
dsj has only really done setup spec and nothing made me feel strongly either way so I only have a null read on him.

I don't like enomis insistence on not voting yourself. I also find it sus that the person he questions for that is also in his group. He is acting survivalist rather than being concerned about lynching scum. Enomis, if you scumread the other two players in your group would you vote for yourself then?

I still like Mohab's 58 and I think that's a town take on the situation. I like in their entrance post they try to steer the game away from diving too deep into the partitions. I do think it's a bit odd that she said this then dived straight into partition discussion. I think the vote on her own group is good as well assuming she thinks there's scum in her group. I'd like to hear about her reads in her group and reasoning for that vote.

VOTE: Group 3. This seems like the best chance we have at getting scum without risking losing the whole game. I also think there's a good chance that enomis flips scum and if not possibly dsj.

[Raya36]

Actually I think that's L-1 on the group so UNVOTE: but consider my vote there.

[Raya36]

Morning, can you explain your town lean on Enomis? I'm just not seeing it. Also Enomis is actively avoiding lynching his own group so only 2 of the 3 members suspect group 3 unless I missed something.

[Raya36]

D&D is town for this. As I said earlier speculation of how scum are split can only get you so far. Scumhunting instead is town-oriented and I also like what they said as well.

Which lines in 135 did you like?

All the lines are good for early scumhunting. In particular (as much as I hate to admit it) I liked the two lines with negative points. The line about Enomis I agree with and the line about me makes sense. I also like that they're telling Morning to scumhunt. I'm not sure why Morning was singled out but it's good to push for scumhunting and to try to move away from set-up spec.

Morning, can you explain your town lean on Enomis? I'm just not seeing it. Also Enomis is actively avoiding lynching his own group so only 2 of the 3 members suspect group 3 unless I missed something.

Oh yeah i forgot enomis was like "I want to be here on day 2." in response to Mohab voting group three.

Spoiler: Enomis

39/40 - Enomis seems to prefer lynching group one. He would like for us to play the game normally

47 - Enomis realizes that we go to MYLO even if we get 2 scum in group one
Going back on his own play, he realizes why we shouldnt target group one

63 - Enomis theory crafts that mafia wouldnt go 1/1/1.
We later tell him a mistake he made and he reevaluates this to be false. However i do think this was a genuine theory

71 - Enomis is demoralized realizing its between #2 and #3

83 - Enomis wants to be here on day 2

90 - Enomis says that he is forced to vote group 2 because he wants to stay alive and we can't lynch group 1. He is disappointed because this isn't what he was expecting from this game
So here he's either acting well or this is genuine. Again im inclined to believe this is his real feelings, because as scum this is a really weak play to try and get pressure on group #2.

93 - Enomis reiterates that he feels he absolutely cannot lynch group #1 based on what people have posted about it

Enomis is either a demoralized player who feels like he has no options today but wants to keep playing so he's blindly voting group #2, or he's acting out that character. I feel like this is a bad course of action for scum to take. I'd expect scum to find ways to scumread clidd and ABR, not claim "I don't want to die" and more or less give up

I also feel like if Enomis was on a scumteam, he wouldn't volunteer to be put in the outlier group. he'd go for the big group and let someone else do the outlier. Yes, he could be lying about this self-preservation mindset, but im more inclined to think its real

I get what you're saying but don't you think it's a little agenda-y to push for your own group to stay alive with no reason other than wanting to live? I'm also still concerned about 62. It comes across as him just wanting to say 'don't vote our group' but instead hiding that by indirectly questioning him for voting his own group. You do have a good point though. If this is scum it's a very weird way to push for group 2 without causing too much suspicion. But if he is scum it's working in a sense so I'm not sure honestly.

@D&D for post 224: Set-up spec isn't towny on it's own but I found their analysis and conversation worthy of townleans that early in the game. Set-up spec has to be done to an extent and they jumped in right away with it. They're not strong leans at all based on this. I definitely do think Morning is town though based on her play.
About Mohab: I agree with what you said about them stating they don't want to talk about set-up then diving straight into set-up but do you think that comes from scum? I guess I could see scum saying that to try to sound towny then trying to delay scum hunting by speculating set-up anyway, but back to back like that? I just think scum would be a little more sneaky about it if that was their goal.

a haiku about clidd

clidd, the detective
he takes a sip of his tea
it’s quite delicious

im not sure if the last line is cheating or not

You might have just sold it for me. In all seriousness I'll look into group 2 again soon. I really don't think Albert is scum but I'll take another look and I need to look more into Clidd. I thought his set-up spec summary post was good but a few people seemed to have problems with it? I kinda got lost in all the spec discussion there so I'll go back to that later.

am i supposed to know what hoctac and ame have been alluding to for 70% of the game and im missing it, or is everyone else also confused

I am incredibly confused

[Raya36]

I think Adorable is scum

But I’m still not endorsing a lynch on group 1

What makes you think Adorable is scum?

[Raya36]

As promised time to dive into some Clidd analysis.

I thought his entrance was ok. He didn't waste time and came in right away with a new idea. I don't think what he said holds much weight and I don't think I'd ever use that as reasoning for a read but I think it's a good thought nonetheless. I think what I like most about it is instead of coming in and speculating the basic partition set-up like most of everyone else he's instead offered a new view which is still kind of related to mechanics but is also on the verge of scumhunting. Also if scum were trying to use this to push people who posted early game I'd expect them to actually go somewhere with it but he doesn't.

Now for his analysis post. I thought it was a good summary and organized things neatly for town to figure out what was most likely which is good. There's not much else I can say about it than that besides his logic seems sound and he seems to have good intentions. I will admit I'm not very strong mechanically so I did get a little lost in the discussion about this post.

This sporadic behavior by Ame does not seem natural to me. I don't know to what extent she still has some paranoia for my slot, or if she is acting in bad faith with this push.

I agree with this point. I haven't played much with Ame before but her posting seems a bit fluffy as well. Although I haven't looked too much into it yet since I don't plan on going for group 1 and she has content as well as the fluff.

I know I said I had a hunch that group 3 had 2 scum in it, but I am actually having a hunchier hunch about group 2 being all scum, so let's vote group 2, shall we?

I feel that your comments on posts 56, 57 and 138 were a more fluid progression. This change in posture did not seem to me to be within the investigative instance of before, which gives me the impression that it is a forced inference.

I find it odd that he shades someone suggesting voting for his group instead of discussing the suggestion directly. It makes me inclined to believe that he's trying to take away credibility. That said, if he thinks Albert is town and he's town this makes perfect sense.

I think his reads are fine. I don't completely agree with everything but his reasoning is good.

@Clidd, do you have a read on Albert outside of partition composition?



Overall I'm not convinced Clidd is scum and I still think that Albert is town. I really think scum would tone down their push for group 1 a little bit if they were pushing an agenda. For Clidd everything seems to come from the point of view of town in a group of 2 who reads their other group member as town.

I know I said I didn't want to make decisions based on the partitions but I think group 3 is the better choice still and partly because it has 1 more player than group 2. I don't think Albert is scum and I'm also leaning towards Clidd being town. Group 3 seems to have players that are more widely scumread and I think the chances of getting at least 1 scum in there are much higher than in group 2. I think group 2 is all town based on my reads and the partitions are 2-0-1, 1-0-2, or 3-0-0.

[Raya36]

I'm safe to vote there now too

VOTE: Group 3

[Raya36]

I think Adorable is scum

But I’m still not endorsing a lynch on group 1

What makes you think Adorable is scum?

Just read her ISO

It doesn’t have anything besides bad justification for voting group 1 (yes there’s almost certainly scum in group 1 but the real question is how many?) and an OMGUS on MT that was reachy and unjustified

I think she’d be doing a lot more as town

Do you have any particular thoughts on their opening post?

[Raya36]

Do you have any particular thoughts on their opening post?

I answered this in response to Adorable

What's your read on them?

I feel like scum would know the set-up and they didn't appear to in their opening post.

[Raya36]

I think group 2 is all town based on my reads and the partitions are 2-0-1, 1-0-2, or 3-0-0.

Yes, this is correct. Does everyone agree with these possible compositions?

Except that 1-0-2 is FAR TOO RISKY. If we lynch group 2 they lose 2 scum and it's up to 1 scum to fight the whole town with no kills after N1?

Seems improbable. It's 3-0-0 or 2-0-1.

I assume you meant to say if we lynch group 3?
That logic applies to all the possibilities I mentioned. I think 2-0-1 is the least risky for scum but what you said certainly applies to 3-0-0 since the risk isn't even that they only have 1 scum left, they just lose.

[Raya36]

I also think whoever are scum in this game are trying way too hard to look towny and it is Group 1 who is getting town read alot.

This feels like scum acting like they're scumhunting tbh, this statement adds little to nothing here: we know scum is trying to act like townt so can you please tell us something more discreet? What do you mean by trying too hard to be towny? And was that last part a jab against Group 1 or are you actually defending Group 1?

Actually idk if I townread Mohab anymore. Adorable seems like obvious lynchbait to me and their first post suggests they aren't aware of the set-up which scum would be. That could be a fake "slip" of course but based on the rest of their play I just don't think they would do that.

Quick read, the way Albert is playing it seems he's banking on lynching Group 1 then not even having a day 2, so I am in favour of a group 2 lynch for the moment (for real now).

I'm also getting the feeling they were only voting for their group at first to get town-cred. I bet they planned to move to group 2 after the whole time.

I just noticed, checking meta isn't even necessary at this point. This guy is misleading the rest of town, so I say if we only lose two town members at the most, we should just lynch group 2 to get rid of him. VOTE: group 2 I think my vote is on them, but just to confirm.

The only situation I see Albert being scum is him trying to bait the lynch on group 2 by acting very loud about lynching group 1. But it makes no sense to put scum in a group of 2 then bait it. So I really don't think Albert is scum. No scum would be that obvious about an agenda without their agenda being to be noticed.

Spoiler:

As promised time to dive into some Clidd analysis.

I thought his entrance was ok. He didn't waste time and came in right away with a new idea. I don't think what he said holds much weight and I don't think I'd ever use that as reasoning for a read but I think it's a good thought nonetheless. I think what I like most about it is instead of coming in and speculating the basic partition set-up like most of everyone else he's instead offered a new view which is still kind of related to mechanics but is also on the verge of scumhunting. Also if scum were trying to use this to push people who posted early game I'd expect them to actually go somewhere with it but he doesn't.

Now for his analysis post. I thought it was a good summary and organized things neatly for town to figure out what was most likely which is good. There's not much else I can say about it than that besides his logic seems sound and he seems to have good intentions. I will admit I'm not very strong mechanically so I did get a little lost in the discussion about this post.

This sporadic behavior by Ame does not seem natural to me. I don't know to what extent she still has some paranoia for my slot, or if she is acting in bad faith with this push.

I agree with this point. I haven't played much with Ame before but her posting seems a bit fluffy as well. Although I haven't looked too much into it yet since I don't plan on going for group 1 and she has content as well as the fluff.

I know I said I had a hunch that group 3 had 2 scum in it, but I am actually having a hunchier hunch about group 2 being all scum, so let's vote group 2, shall we?

I feel that your comments on posts 56, 57 and 138 were a more fluid progression. This change in posture did not seem to me to be within the investigative instance of before, which gives me the impression that it is a forced inference.

I find it odd that he shades someone suggesting voting for his group instead of discussing the suggestion directly. It makes me inclined to believe that he's trying to take away credibility. That said, if he thinks Albert is town and he's town this makes perfect sense.

I think his reads are fine. I don't completely agree with everything but his reasoning is good.

@Clidd, do you have a read on Albert outside of partition composition?



Overall I'm not convinced Clidd is scum and I still think that Albert is town. I really think scum would tone down their push for group 1 a little bit if they were pushing an agenda. For Clidd everything seems to come from the point of view of town in a group of 2 who reads their other group member as town.

I know I said I didn't want to make decisions based on the partitions but I think group 3 is the better choice still and partly because it has 1 more player than group 2. I don't think Albert is scum and I'm also leaning towards Clidd being town. Group 3 seems to have players that are more widely scumread and I think the chances of getting at least 1 scum in there are much higher than in group 2. I think group 2 is all town based on my reads and the partitions are 2-0-1, 1-0-2, or 3-0-0.

''

@Clidd, do you have a read on Albert outside of partition composition?

''

If you want, I can go into details, but basically it is because of the way he is playing. The aggressiveness he showed in defending the idea that group 1 is strategically feasible to be lynched seems to me an ignorant behavior that I see coming from an interpersonal trait characteristic of his profile, where he is probably frustrated/irritated by the gamestate, which makes sense within the scenario in which Town!Albert demonstrates emotional levels that would not make much sense in the Scum!Albert mentality, where he would be aware that his reasoning is fraudulent. In other words, it is my interpretation of the slot to distinguish that his expressions/reactions are within a natural spectrum of conduct, very different from what I feel about Ame, for example (which is forced).

I still think this is town

[Raya36]

GROUP 1:

Adorable

Ame

Cat Scratch Fever

Daenerys and Dragons

Hoctac

Kanna

Morning Tweet

Raya36

GROUP 2:

Albert B. Rampage

clidd

GROUP 3:
dsjstr

enomis

Mohab500

[Raya36]

if there is some weird scum conspiracy to lynch a bunch of town in 1 to win then Albert would be scum obviously

-dragons

But Albert is acting way too obvious for that??

[Raya36]

if there is some weird scum conspiracy to lynch a bunch of town in 1 to win then Albert would be scum obviously

-dragons

But Albert is acting way too obvious for that??

thats exactly what i'd expect scum!albert to do. it's lower effort, and it plays into the WIFOM very nicely

So you're thinking scum want us to lynch group 1 and Albert is the one in charge of aggressively pushing that? And that's why he's in the smallest group maybe? In case that backfired?

[Raya36]

if there is some weird scum conspiracy to lynch a bunch of town in 1 to win then Albert would be scum obviously

-dragons

But Albert is acting way too obvious for that??

thats exactly what i'd expect scum!albert to do. it's lower effort, and it plays into the WIFOM very nicely

So you're thinking scum want us to lynch group 1 and Albert is the one in charge of aggressively pushing that? And that's why he's in the smallest group maybe? In case that backfired?

I haven't decided. I'm leaning towards that not being the case, though. I think 2-3 scum are in group one.

The scenario im talking about is if scum distributed 1/1/1. Scum in group one advocates for group one annihilation. Albert in group two advocates to kill group one. And the scum in group three could do it too

I can feasibly see Albert!scum opting to choose to do a super obvious scream that group 1 is obvscum (as WIFOM), but im leaning towards that not being the case

Ok that makes a lot more sense. I still don't think Albert is scum and I don't see any likely strategies with him as scum and using this playstyle. I could see this but that's banking on it being 1:1:1 which is an assumption I wouldn't make a scum read over

[Raya36]

Adorable seems like obvious lynchbait to me and their first post suggests they aren't aware of the set-up which scum would be. That could be a fake "slip" of course but based on the rest of their play I just don't think they would do that.

Why is adorable town for not being aware of the setup but not me?

This feels like a very contrived reason to townread Adorable.

The difference is that they seemed to be trying to analyze the incorrect set-up and you only mentioned that it wasn't what you thought it was.
That's why I only have them as a slight townread. But their being unaware of the set-up came across as genuine to me.

[Raya36]

Group 3 is for in-betweeners afraid of taking risks but still want to hit at least 1 scum maybe.

Isn't that kinda a good thing?

[Raya36]

The fact that no one from group 2 or 3 has hammered group 1 pretty much confirms my theory of minimal scum in groups 2-3.

This is a good point. Because of this I'll consider group 1 but first I need to actually find 2 or 3 people on it I actually think are scum and so far I'm mostly only seeing scummy players in group 3.

[Raya36]

Good game everyone and good job town! I was not expecting the group 1 lynch but it was good play!