Mini 144: Dreamcatcher~Game Over

[SubtleTactix]

It's possible that PBuG chose not to kill the first night -- hoping to trick us into thinking "no SK this game!" Still, no SK = happy town. Not much else to go on at this point, so let's toss a

Random vote: chaotic_diablo

.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

well, we can either go for a bandwagon or get someone to claim without the bandwagon. Other options may be open, but i don't really know them. Out of the two i suggested, i'd go for the bandwagon.

Unvote

Originally, I was going to lay low, but I have information from night one that gives me a strong lead for a lynch target. I'd like to share my info, b/c I think that will be more useful to the town that a series of bandwagons on day one. Also, if my info is not reliable, I'd rather find out now than in a crucial end game vote.

I can think of two ways to use my info:

A. I name my suspect, we ask for a role-claim, and then I reveal the exact nature of my information. We compare the claim to my info and decide accordingly what to do.
B. I name my suspect, and I reveal the exact nature of my information immediately.

The advantage of A is that it might save us from making the wrong decision in regards to our day 1 lynch. Also, if we go route B, it will make it easier for my suspect to make a believable claim if they are scum. Obviously I lean towrds A, but I realize people might be more comfortable with B (since you have no real reason to believe me at this point).

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Alright...

FOS: willows_weep

. My info seems to incriminate you... what do you have to say for yourself? After your response, I'll be more detailed about the info I received on night one.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

I was hoping willow would hint a little more at her night abilities, but in good faith I'll share what I know:

As is probably not a surprise, I have an investigative ability. Last night, I received the following two pieces of information about willows_weep:

1. She has the ability to kill at night.
2. She does NOT have the ability to protect others at night (like a doc).

I actually had an opportunity to get a third piece of information, but I used it to try and test my sanity. I asked if something I knew to be true was true, and got a yes answer. That's what makes me really feel like this is a strong lead to pursue.

So my plan was to believe willow if she claimed vigilante, and consider her scum if she claimed something else. I still think this is reasonable, so...

Vote: willows_weep

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--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

So that's 4 out of 7 right?
I've already claimed. I'm a producer, I work towards the set, I have a dream catcher that I have to make work theme wise.
No clue what it does, save for that it can replicate other roles, so that leaves it open to non-specific abilities.

Is there any way that willow's claim can agree with my info? I mean, if she can replicate roles, shouldn't I have found out that she CAN protect players at night, like a doc?
--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

So... if no one has anything else to say, maybe we should go ahead and lynch willow?

[SubtleTactix]

Gah. Too bad about the doctor. Well, we still have this little tidbit from yesterday:

What choice did you make last night willows and what were the results?

I'd love to hear why Talitha thought willows had a night choice, *especially* when willows turned out to be mafia.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Last night I asked the same three questions of Talitha that I asked about willows; the result: Talitha does not have the ability to kill players at night. Sounds pretty non-scum to me.

I asked about yesterday's post before revealing my info, b/c Talitha's question to willow seemed like a scummy slip up, especially with the "Oops" post that followed. Basically, I was worried Talitha might be a godfather, and wanted to get a Day 2 vibe before announcing my result. I suppose that is still a possibility, but with a re-reading of the thread, and Talitha's reply, I'm not too worried about it for now.

Other than preparing for my impending doom since the doc is gone, I'm not sure what we do next... my knowledge of Dreamcatcher is basically nil. Here's a weak FOS: chaotic_diablo. His "bad feeling" on day one may have been a desparate attempt to save mafia brethren. It's weak, I know it's weak, I'm just throwing it out there.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

JDTAY, what happens when Henry finds you? Please be specific -- I am skeptical at this point.

I was going to post a "Yes, JDTAY is acting bizarrely, but let's go after lurkers" type message this morning, but the claim takes precedence.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

When Henry finds me, we can communicate.

I'm Henry. Now, I'm not on a mission to find Jonesy, but I do pick night targets to investigate. JDTAY's role-claim is plausible, even if it's not iron-clad... I don't think its a good move to lynch him today.

I say we leave JDTAY for now, and go after a lurker.

Vote: MGIA

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--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Unvote

. --Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Okay, no one's saying anything, so I'm just going to post my thoughts on everybody, in the hopes of generating discussion.

Talitha: I have an innocent result on her, MGIA claims to have confirmed it, so not likely to have scum here.

MGIA, JDTAY: Have role-claimed pretty main characters, and no one countered, so they seem somewhat clear.

PeaceBringer: No one's said much about him. But he was enthusiastic about my plan to out Willow, and then voted immediately for her when I fingered her. It's hard to imagine a scum being able to bluff so strongly in that position, so I don't suspect him much.

FD: Honestly, I don't see the case against him, but he hasn't really posted lately in his own defense, either. Like PB, he was in favor of my plan -- he didn't vote for Willow right away, but it was somewhat justifiable -- she was close to a lynch and it looked like people had more to say (and while I hope people trust me now, they didn't have as much reason to on day one....) So I don't think FD is clear, but I don't get a real scummy vibe, either.

KE: With his completely understandable absence, we don't have anything to go on. Pass for now.

chaotic_diablo, halfpint: I think our lynch candidate needs to come from one of these two. The only truly scummy thing that sticks out to me is halfpint's post 33 (read 31-34). After I FOS'ed willows_weep, willows made a rather ambiguous role claim in her defense. Then, halfpint posted (#33) about two hours later, and instead of asking willows to clarify, she asked me to come out with my info. Granted, this WAS the plan, but willows post was so ambiguous I was still surprised by halfpint's quick prodding...

So my lynch candidates (in order of preference) would be halfpint, chaotic_diablo, then at a distant third, FD. In that direction...

Vote: halfpint

.

There, MGIA... something 'happened.'

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

I mean, I'd rather lynch FD than have a no lynch, I guess. But I don't see much in the case chaotic made against FD. I don't agree that post 99 was scummy -- FD had a valid point. I mean, suppose MGIA is telling the truth about his role, and that if he investigates scum, they die. The town would be better off if he hadn't had to role-claim. (I'm using hind sight here, of course. At the time JDTAY claimed, I admitted I was Henry when I could have just let JDTAY get lynched. At the time, I thought clearing him was the pro-town thing to do.)

Look, I'm not saying I'm 100% sure halfpint's mafia (or that I'm 100% sure FD's not), but on the balance of the info at hand, I find her the best candidate, followed closely by chaotic and distantly by FD.

It's tough -- I don't think we have a lot to go on; I could certainly be misreading things. I just thought I'd throw the vibes I'm getting out there...

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Everyone ready for my really outrageous, imaginative, and nearly impossible idea?
Subtle could have sold out W_W, then randomly pick a random innocent and said the person can't kill. Afterall, he never said if Talitha could protect at night or not. Then, JDTAY could be in league with Tactix, so when JDTAY is in trouble, they can confirm each other.

An amusing notion, I'll admit. But for that to work, JDTAY and I would have to know that it was safe to claim Henry and Jonesy. That seems too bold for mafia to try, and too unlikely for the mod to have set up.

I did indeed ask if Talitha could protect at night, but how does it help the town to reveal the answer I got? It just makes it easier for mafia to eliminate doctors. If you're really worried about this, I can make a claim about Tally's doc status, and then she can confirm. But let's not do that unless everyone really thinks JDTAY and I are in cahoots.

Just to remind everyone, I did try to verify my sanity for both of my investigations -- both times I got the 'correct' answer, so I'm pretty confident in my result on Talitha.

Anyway, I'm still not particularly moved to lynch FD, so I'll keep my vote where it is for now. It didn't show up in nonny's last count, though, so

Confirm Vote: halfpint

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--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

I have also been thinking that with all these cops (It's like Discount Cop Warehouse over here!), we should organize a "who-to-investigate" plan for the night. The problem is, the mafia will know the plan ahead of time, will be able to predict (most of) our results, and so will be able to make the most confusing kill possible.

I'm still open to the idea, but until we have a "foolproof" plan (i.e., no matter who dies, we still nab some scum), I think we're better off keeping a lid on who we all intend to target.

I'll think about it some more, though. Let me check that I've got all the possible cop types down:

sane = correct result
naive = always innocent
insane = random result
paranoid = always guilty

Is there a cop type where you always get an incorrect result?

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Before we discard PB's claim out of hand, we should ask ourselves: Is there a more natural character, not yet claimed, who would have limited protection ability? If not, then maybe we should lynch halfpint or KE instead (claimed townie, rather than claimed limited-doc).

That said, PB, it is odd that everyone who has claimed so far has given their character's name, yet you haven't. If you're telling the truth, the mafia know enough about you as it is -- how would "spelling it out" (and preventing your lynch) hurt the town if you really have some protection ability?

Torn. FOS: PB for now.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Hmmm... I can't help but noticing that my vote keeps failing to register. Perhaps I've been the victim of some vote-cancelling night action? Just to be sure...

Unvote

Vote: halfpint

Could we have another vote count, please?

[SubtleTactix]

Suppose I were mafia. THEN:

1. JDTAY must be scum, also. If he were townie, why would I confirm his role-claim when I could have just let the town lynch him?
2. PeaceBringer must be scum. Otherwise, I'd just vote for him instead of halfpint and move on to tonight.

That means the game would have started with 4 mafia (me, Willows, PB, and JDTAY) AND a SK. Isn't that a little much for a mini!? I don't see how you can think that's possible. And EVEN if it was possible, WHY would I needlessly sacrifice a mafia member in Willow on the first day!? It just reduces the numbers advantage the mafia would have had!

Also,

I can see why PB is voting for me -- he doesn't want to get lynched. But why FD, Tactix, and JDTAY? Especially you Tactix? I know that you have more game sense then this -- why exactly do you find me more suspcious then PB?

It's not that simple. I find both of you kind of, but not especially, suspicious. (Recall that my original vote on you was by process of elimination.) But if PB is telling the truth and we lynch him, we lose a doc, where as if you are telling the truth and we lynch you, we only lose a townie.

That doesn't mean we should always lynch townie-claimers over doc-claimers, but you do have to factor that in to the process of casting your vote. I don't think my vote suggests poor game sense, even if I turn out to be wrong about halfpint.

Finally, we haven't had a new vote-count yet. It's quite possible my vote doesn't even count, anyway.

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

I'm convinced Talitha is pro-town. But we already suspect that there is mis-information in this game (for example, FD is definitely not sane even if he is a cop). So I'm concerned that Talitha's info might not be valid. How much confidence do you have in your info, Talitha? If you're really sure, I guess I'm willing to switch my vote. But I'll wait and see what Talitha says.
--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

Alright, that does seem pretty strong. This may or may not be a lynching vote, so everyone should presume the day is continuing until nonny tells us otherwise. <Crosses Fingers>

Unvote

Vote: PeaceBringer

--Tactix

[SubtleTactix]

I think this was a really neat setup. It's a shame that the SK wen't down on the first day; I can imagine all the cops coming out after two people die and it being a real mess to sort through.

And here I was thinking Talitha just regularly said things like "Jesus Christ bananas."

Thanks, nonny!