Mini 147: Warhammer 40,000 - Game Over!

[Aelyn]

OK, well the gigantic humanoid figure sounds to me like a Tyranid, perhaps? Certainly not a Marine (of any nature), Eldar (of any nature), Imperial Guard or Tau - I've probably missed a couple, but most armies are essentially humanoid. I'd stake a fair bit that it's either a Tyranid or an Ork, and either way I imagine that it's a serial killer - Tyranids would understand that the Hive Mind would be detected in too great a concentration (perhaps it's a Genestealer Hybrid?), and an Ork would be more than happy to have a chance to fight on its own. Daemons don't have weapons to charge, so it can't be that.

The second death... a hulking figure with an armoured means Terminator armour, and the swinging wildly suggests a sword, or an axe, or something? Either way, you wouldn't swing with a lightning claw, yet a claw is present. The most likely suspect, in my opinion, is Abaddon the Despoiler. I know it's not much, but at least I've begun to narrow down the possible scum - as it's a twelve person game, perhaps we can begin to work stuff out.

Firstly, I imagine there's about three or four scum total - my money's on there being two Mafia members and a Tyranid.

Secondly, I'd imagine there's probably either one or two cops, one of which is dead. I can't think of anyone offhand for whom being a cop makes sense, unless the way it works is that Dark Angels are cops - which makes sense, given the way they act. I'm open to other suggestions, but if there is another cop I reckon it's Ezekiel.

Thirdly, there's probably one Doctor. No-one particularly logical springs to mind.

Fourthly, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a Vigilante - probably Commisar Yarrick, or perhaps a Blood Angel, but there are other possibilities.

Lastly, I'd expect maybe two more pro-town roles, for instance roleblocker (if I'm wrong about Ezekiel, perhaps a psyker as a roleblocker) or something unusual... I'll leave that up to the others to decide.

Oh, and I should mention: I'm highly up-to-date with Dark Angels lore, but I don't know that much about other armies. Just an FYI.

OK, we may as well get this started... Randomly

Vote: Mathcam

[Aelyn]

OK, well the gigantic humanoid figure sounds to me like a Tyranid, perhaps? Certainly not a Marine (of any nature), Eldar (of any nature), Imperial Guard or Tau - I've probably missed a couple, but most armies are essentially humanoid. I'd stake a fair bit that it's either a Tyranid or an Ork, and either way I imagine that it's a serial killer - Tyranids would understand that the Hive Mind would be detected in too great a concentration (perhaps it's a Genestealer Hybrid?), and an Ork would be more than happy to have a chance to fight on its own. Daemons don't have weapons to charge, so it can't be that.

The second death... a hulking figure with an armoured means Terminator armour, and the swinging wildly suggests a sword, or an axe, or something? Either way, you wouldn't swing with a lightning claw, yet a claw is present. The most likely suspect, in my opinion, is Abaddon the Despoiler. I know it's not much, but at least I've begun to narrow down the possible scum - as it's a twelve person game, perhaps we can begin to work stuff out.

Firstly, I imagine there's about three or four scum total - my money's on there being two Mafia members and a Tyranid.

Secondly, I'd imagine there's probably either one or two cops, one of which is dead. I can't think of anyone offhand for whom being a cop makes sense, unless the way it works is that Dark Angels are cops - which makes sense, given the way they act. I'm open to other suggestions, but if there is another cop I reckon it's Ezekiel.

Thirdly, there's probably one Doctor. No-one particularly logical springs to mind.

Fourthly, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a Vigilante - probably Commisar Yarrick, or perhaps a Blood Angel, but there are other possibilities.

Lastly, I'd expect maybe two more pro-town roles, for instance roleblocker (if I'm wrong about Ezekiel, perhaps a psyker as a roleblocker) or something unusual... I'll leave that up to the others to decide.

Oh, and I should mention: I'm highly up-to-date with Dark Angels lore, but I don't know that much about other armies. Just an FYI.

OK, we may as well get this started... Randomly

Vote: Mathcam

[Aelyn]

Actually, Warpdragon, it does say the gargantuan humanoid's weapons hummed - this doesn't sound Orky to me (they tend to make loud noises or no noise, not hum), but did remind me of the hyperactive metabolism of the Tyranids.

And the double-post was because my computer's messed up.

[Aelyn]

Well, PBuG, Dark Angels are actually a form of Marine - they're one of the Founding Chapters.

Here's a complete list (off the top of my head):

Tau
Tyranids
Orks
Eldar
Dark Eldar
Eldar Harlequins (kinda obsolete)
Stunts (Obsolete)
Imperial Guard

CHAOS:
- Word Bearers
- World Eaters
- Night Legion
- Iron Warriors
- Thousand Sons
- Plague Marines
- Noise Marines
And a couple others

SPACE MARINES:
- Dark Angels
- Space Wolves
- Ultramarines
- Blood Angels
- White Scars
- Salamanders
- Black Templars
(- Grey Knight) - strictly, they're part of the Inquisition.

There's probably one or two others I've forgotten.

[Aelyn]

I have no idea what's going on, so I'll go with the safest plan.

vote mathcam

Good choice

Seriously, nothing's really going on here right now. We're making wild conjectures about the setup based on the theme and the two nightkills.

You may be able to tell, as (apparently) the most knowledgable about 40K, I am so far the most active poster by far.

[Aelyn]

http://uk.games-workshop.com/40kunivers ... mer40k.htm

[Aelyn]

*yawn* This game's going rather slowly, isn't it?

I mean, there's been nothing of significance for pretty well the entire game, aside of course from various theme-based posts. No-one's said or done anything even remotely deserving of conversation yet! And without conversation, it's near-impossible to determine who's scum and who isn't.

Therefore, we must start talking about the game, instead of just the theme of the game.

And the first thing to consider is that in theory, we could No Lynch.

So, it's a twelve-person game, with a cop and a townie already dead.

I think at this point it's reasonable to assume, as a working theory, we have a Serial Killer, a two or three person Mafia, a doctor (I'd be surprised if there were two!), quite possibly another cop (remember, we don't know about sanities), perhaps a vig or another more unusual role, and between two and five townies remaining. I'm unfortunately not yet skilled enough at the analysis of the game to know whether a No Lynch is a good idea or not with this game state, but my gut tells me it's not - I'd appreciate another opinion, though.

The other thing to consider is the mass roleclaim, which could work quite well since it seems most people don't know the 40K world very well - meaning a false claim would be quite easy to see through. However, it wouldn't be too difficult for scum to do a little research and decide on a reasonably well-known character to false-claim. Again, my guts tell me it's a bad idea, at least until we've had a bit of discussion.

Thoughts, everyone?

[Aelyn]

Nice catch on Mathcam, Kleimar - I'm surprised I didn't notice it myself. Yeah, he's staying perfectly silent - perhaps a modprod might be in order? I mean, the game's been running for several days.

[Aelyn]

Pooky, that does sound like a good idea. Perhaps since you suggested it, you wouldn't mind going first? Unfortunately, we wouldn't so much flush out scum by nameclaiming as flush out pairs of people, either of which could be scum.

Either way, we should wait for Mathcam before acting. He may be able to help.

[Aelyn]

Well, say you roleclaim.. Commisar Yarrick, then Kleimar roleclaims Commisar Yarrick. (For example!)

All we'd know is that at least one out of you and Kleimar is scum. We'd have no way of kowing which of you was scum.

[Aelyn]

Sorry for the double post, but I left for a bit and didn't see Aelyn's post.
In the situation that you talked about, Aelyn, we would lynch the scummier of the two. If scum, great. If not, then we have scum. Almost as great. This is plausible since it increases the townie to scum ratio (i.e. from 4townie:2scum to 3townie:1scum). Make sense?

I hope it's probably because you're new(?) to the game.

Nah, I thought of that. But you may have forgotten that that would allow the killing groups to make another set of kills. Plus there could be more than one pair like that, and we don't really want to have to figure out who's scummiest of each pair and which pair has the highest difference in scumminess, which is the best way of figuring out who's best to lynch - it would just be too dependant on personal opinion. Plus, we have no way of guaranteeing that there would be any pairs like that - and then we'd have given the killers a strong indication of who has what kind of abilities.

[Aelyn]

It's kind of a strange one, Mathcam - the thing is, there are roughly eight or ten big good guys in the Imperium, but there are easily another twenty or so less significant characters who nonetheless might be involved. Add in the (unlikely, but theoretically possible) chance that significant members of the not-specifically-bad races like the Eldar might be present, and I'd have to say that it wouldn't be too hard for the Mafia to false-claim.

[Aelyn]

From dictionary.com:

Of or relating to a usually speculative formulation serving as a guide in the investigation or solution of a problem

It means that while rolenames won't necessarily tell us the exact role, they'll heavily imply the idea, and resoning, behind the role - for instance, Cmdr. Azrael is the leader of the Dark Angels, a chapter known for their hatred of aliens and their near-fanatical hunt for a particular group of Chaos Marines, but despite this their relative emotionlessness (compared to the Blood Angels or Space Wolves, that is!); therefore the cop role makes sense.

[Aelyn]

Hmmm... Looking at the number of posts by each person, specifically the content-included ones (votes, challenges, speculation, and answers to challenges):

Aelyn: 12 total posts, 5 or 6 with content
EnPaceRequiescat: 8 total posts, 4 with content
inHimshallibe: 5 posts, 4 with content
JDTAY: 3 posts, 2 with content
kleimar: 6 posts, 5 with content
mathcam: 3 posts, 2 with content
*PBuG: 3 posts, 1 with content
PookyTheMagicalBear: 2 posts, 2 with content
*The_Machine86: 5 posts, 2 with content
*warpdragon: 4 posts, 2 with content

From this, I figure that what we really need is for most people to post more useful stuff. (geez, that’s saying a lot, isn’t it?)

Note, however, the lurkers. None out of PBuG, The Machine and Warpdragon have posted since New Year’s Day – should we remind them the game’s still going?

As I’m getting rather bored of this game (due to how slowly it’s moving!) I will

Unvote, Vote: warpdragon, and FOS: PBuG and The_Machine86

Which means (unofficial votecount):

inHimshallibe: 2 (EnPaceRequiescat, PookyTheMagicalBear)
mathcam: 2 (Aelyn, JDTAY)
PbuG: 1 (warpdragon)
JDTAY: 1 (kleimar,, mathcam, inHimshallibe)
PookyTheMagicalBear: 1 (The_Machine86)
The_Machine86: 1 (PbuG)
warpdragon: 1 (Aelyn)

This might not be 100% accurate, I’d appreciate the mod’s input at this point – are you planning on prodding those three?

[Aelyn]

Firstly,

Un-FOS all ex-lurkers

Hey man, I think my role might be pretty important, you all should unvote me.

I'm sorry, but you're currently, what, two votes away from a lynching? One?
At this point, if you're gonna roleclaim, roleclaim. Even if it's just the name, or the flavour of your role, claim. I don't want you to get lynched if you are an important role, but your claim is very vague as it stands, and you don't even seem to know if it's a power role!

[Aelyn]

Y'know, JDTAY, I might be wrong on this one - but I've got a sneaking suspicion that Pooky's just messin' ya around. Partly because, to the best of my knowledge, there IS no character with that name.

Besides, Kunarilk? Who is that? The main chaos character is Abaddon the Despoiler, and the main one historically is Horus. The four Chaos Gods are Tzeentch, Slaanesh, Khorne and Nurgle.

Of course, I could be wrong... I'll wait for the mod to confirm or deny this whole situation.

[Aelyn]

Like I've said several times before, inHim, there are so many easily-googled fake claims available that it really matters very little. Ironically, I was actually watching that secondary role as a probable scum, since Sgt. Kell would inevitably work with Creed, and JDTAY's claim states he has no power. No way would Kell have a power and Creed not (IMHO).

Anyway, I agree that it's simply townie with flavour attached, and the way you misrepresented it to try and deflect attention rather than anything else makes me even more suspicious than I was before. Therefore, I will

Vote: JDTAY

and pray I'm not wrong.

[Aelyn]

Vote Inhimshallibe

For implying without doubt that JDTAY was mafia.

FOS : kleimar for giving scum possible outs. It may be worthy enough for a vote soon.

I don't think he was implying JDTAY was definitely scum, but rather that the mention of Sgt. Jarran Kell could give Mafia an idea for a possible character to Google up and claim.

In other news... "eerily whispering sword" positively screams demon sword to me, wihch corroborates my earlier idea that Abaddon is in the mafia. His two weapons of choice are the Daemon Sword Drach'Nyen and Horus' Lightning Claw. Unfortunately, there's no more info as to who the SK may be, which is perhaps the more important question - the Mafia is significantly more obvious than the SK, after all.

I don't kow who to vote for, alas, so for now I'm gonna sit and wait for more conversation. Especially from the people who haven't said much to date.

[Aelyn]

Hi all. Sorry I haven't been around in the last few days, the net's been down at my Halls of Residence.

No real thought at this point; there's been very little conversation recently.

[Aelyn]

I apologise, Mathcam. To be honest, last time I said that was kinda a lie - to be more precise, I only had a couple minutes online and nothing

screamed

out to be commented on. I was more saying "Yeah, I'm here, still reading" than anything else. That said, now you mention it I haven't been contributing very much recently. Sorry! I'll try to make a more significant post another time, when I have the ability to truly analyse the game (as opposed to just reading it).

EnPace: You're right, it's the horrible mutilation; both of those killings are very suitable for Abaddon the Despoiler to perform. May I ask, d'you play 40K at all?

Anyway, I only have two things to say of yet: Firstly, inHim: I agree Kleimar has been acting... suspiciously of late, but it's still perfectly feasible that this was all a big misunderstanding. Let's not blow things out of proportion; that can't be good for the town until we have something a tad more concrete to go on.

Secondly,

Vote: Mathcam

. With one vote already on Kleimer and none on anyone else yet, plus an FOS which could become a vote... yes action's all well and good, but we don't want to risk a quick lynch over a big misunderstanding, do we? Oh, I suppose I should point out this has nothing to do with the other half of your post, at least not consciousely.

[Aelyn]

Um, Mathcam? PBuG had an FOS on Kleimar as well, y'know.

And I realise you're just trying to get the game moving. In a way, so am I - without the threat of a deadline, that would have just been an FOS. What can I say? I'm a conservative player.

[Aelyn]

Bah, my mistake Mathcam - for some reason, I thought the inHim had voted Kleimar, not the other way around. I apologise.

Unvote: Mathcam.

[Aelyn]

And where's Aelyn? is his computer access down again?

basically, more talk.

Yep, unfortunately there seems to be an ongoing problem with the server at my Halls of Residence, which means I can only get on reliably down at the main uni site. Unfortunately, I've had the flu this last week and have been unable to get down here to join in.

[Aelyn]

Okay, here's a quick rundown of the entire day so far:

We discover Pooky, a good guy, is dead. Not good.

Kleimar votes for InhimshallIbe.

I comment that what Kleimar interpreted as a scum comment was probably a misinterpreted innocent comment.

PBuG FOS's Kleimar for being too suspicious.

enPace comments that we're in bad shape, and checks that the kill was mafia's, not SK.

Warpdragon comments that the first nightkill was probably the vig, not the SK - strange comment indeed, in my mind.

++VOTECOUNT++ - no danger to anyone yet.

Kleimar, The_Machine and Warpdragon have a short discussion over the possibility that an SK declined to kill, or other ways the kill could have failed.

Mathcam FOS's Kleimar.

EnPace explains why Kleimar's vote feels scummy.

Kleimar explains his position.

inHim comments on his previous comment.

Mathcam comments that the Mod would probably make it reasonably clear if Pooky had been hit by both Mafia and SK.

++(TENTATIVE) DEADLINE IMPOSED++

I comment on the reasonably small amount of conversation recently.

enPace asks me for confirmation of which team from night 1 fits the night 2 death.

inHim says he might not be around for a while.

Mathcam calls me out on my relative silence; I explain, read the thread, and vote him, thinking at the time only 4 votes were needed to lynch.

Mathcam points out the flaw in my logic and, feeling slightly embarassed, I retract my vote.

++VOTECOUNT: No-one in danger++

With limited time remaining, we begin discussion in earnest. EnPace asks is a blind lynch is better or worse than a no-lynch.

Kleimar makes a post which, frankly, doesn't really say anything as far as I'm concerned - scum win if they control the vote. Isn't that normal scum win condition?

Three quick lurker votes on The_Machine, including a very hasty one by Kleimar, essentially saying blind lynch is better than no-lynch, which I think is wrong at this stage.

PBuG announces he wants to stop playing, and be replaced. The_Machine posts, but with no content. He then posts agin pointing out a suspicious-looking Kleimar post.

EnPace comments that he feels that Kleimar is acting very suspiciously, especially adding a third lurker vote so soon.

Mathcam un-lurker votes, and makes a more serious vote on Kleimar.

I comment I am still around, and explain my recent absence.


Looking at all the above... Kleimar is the most consistently suspicious. A couple of times, I've read the thread and said to myself "Well, Kleimar's slightly suspicious, but nothing stands out" - however, reading this I realize that it's always Kleimar who seems suspicious to me, and he does with almost every post. I'm now confident.

Vote: Kleimar.

[Aelyn]

Unvote: kleimar

Interesting thought on Aelyn. I'll wait until Aelyn confirms coincidence/non-coincidence before analyzing.

I'm tempted to vote for the machine.

Cam

It was kinda random - the fact Kleimar was involved was random, but the choice of Comissar Yarrick wasn't, since I knew chances were he was in the game. I didn't want to name a character who was unlikely to be in the game, because otherwise scum could use it and they'd be reasonably safe.

But no, pure coincidence that I pegged Kleimar as Yarrick.

[Aelyn]

Unvote Kleimar

.

EnPace, you're probably right about there being a doctor. For now, all I can say is that it's probably a good idea for him to keep Kleimar safe for now.

[Aelyn]

Actually, re-reading the original death scene and with the revelation that Ghazgkull Thraka is most likely present, I really can't decide which was Ghazgkull and which was Abaddon. Both deaths fit the MD of both characters.

[Aelyn]

Um... MD made sense at the time, for some reason. Yeah, I meant MO.

As for the No Lynch option, it seems a tad dodgy. After all, there is more chance of scum dying if we do lynch today.

Bah. I started doing the maths, and didn't get anything of any great use out of it (too many variables), but the gist of it was that:

a) If there are two Mafia members and we miss on a lynch, we have perhaps a 30% chance of winning.
b) If there are two Mafia members and we hit on the lynch, we have perhaps a 65% chance of winning.
c) If there are two Mafia members and we don't lynch, we have perhaps an even chance of winning.

d) If there are three Mafia members and we miss on a lynch, we have perhaps a 10% chance of winning.
e) If there are three Mafia members and we hit on a lynch, we have perhaps a 60% chance of winning.
f) If there are three Mafia members and we don't lynch, we have perhaps a 40% chance of winning.

Note: The values above are rough, ignore cop intervention, and assume Kleimar's being perfectly honest.

And the impression I get, judging by the fact we've missed thus far, is that there's two Mafia members.

Overall, I think that chances are no-lynch is correct here, but it's very close. Anyone care to do the maths and figure out the actual values? My gut instinct could be very wrong here.

[Aelyn]

I'm not sure if kleimar's claim was honestly made. We've been discussing for a while now the identity of the SK, and I have to think it's Abaddon. He's a fairly independent fellow, right? He has the Talon of Horus (mutilation) and that Dra'chnyen - or something like that - (decapitation), correct? I’m only a fledgling in the ways of WH40K, so I’d like to know how Ghazghkull could be SK. You may ask why I don’t consider FD’s death as a possible SK attack. Being blasted is pretty generic when you consider the theme, or am I making a bad assumption? This would fit the mafia kill profile.

IMO, kleimar's claim doesn't hold much water. I'm also suspicious of Aelyn. He was a big proponent of Abaddon being the cause of the mutilation and decap. But, he then drops that theory, saying it could be 'either Ghazghkull or Abaddon now' as soon as kleimar claimed. And then there's the 'coincidence' (???) of him 'supposing' kleimar to be Commissar Yarrick, and then this is exactly the claim kleimar makes. I am thinking Aelyn and kleimar could be scum together now.

As has been pointed out, Abaddon is the most powerful leader of Chaos, which tends (ironically) to be quite an organised force. Ghazkgull Thraka, on the other hand, is very much a lone figure - he's the (self-proclaimed) herald of Gork and Mork, the Orky gods, and believes himself to be one of the most powerful creatures in creation. He's not the kind of being to team up with people.

Regarding my about-face on the Abaddon issue - the decapitation was most certainly Abaddon, I was simply saying the day 1 mutilation could be Ghazkgul, as he is a very large figure who has heavily-armoured boots and weilds a power klaw, and (what I forgot to consider) Orks tend to swing rather than punch with their klaws. It was basically an acknowledgement that I might not be right on the second death being Abaddon issue, which I made as soon as I realised I could have misinterpreted things. I still believe that kill was Abaddon.

As for the whole Kleimar thing, I can only reiterate what I've said. Based on the scenario and the characters we knew at the time, I felt it was very likely Comissar Yarrick was in the game. I therefore felt that any examples of how nameclaiming could go should involve the Comissar, since it's highly unlikely scum would be able to take note of the name and use it if and when we all claim without being challenged. However, the people I used for the example were the person I was talking to (I think it was you, wasn't it, inHim?) and a random choice from the thread, which I made by literally scrolling up about halfway and looking at the writer of the first post I saw.

In other words, the fact that the character I chose is in the game is to be expected, but the fact one of the people I named happened to be that character is pure coincidence.

[Aelyn]

Oh, I forgot to mention: Regarding the statistics I fed in, I should mention that I did consider the SK, but perhaps underestimated the chances of the town winning should we get to a situation with, say, 3 townies, SK, Mafia member - I counted that as a 50% chance, ish, and that was purely by gut. My numbers were probably wrong.

Basically, I feel that with three Mafia plus an SK (less likely), we're not in great shape, but with two Mafia plus an SK (more likely), we're in pretty decent shape. But like I said at the time, I can't really say for sure.

Anyway, right now I don't consider anyone particularly suspicious. I'm a tad uncertain of inHim, but that might be partially due to OMGUS, and I don't want that to cloud my thinking. I don't think anyone is more than 65% scummy, so until I get further evidence I will:

Vote: No Lynch.

Mathcam, as you suggested it, I'd like to hear your thoughts on whether or not a no-lynch is a good idea.

[Aelyn]

The thing that bothers me is how screwed we far if we lynch a townie today. Then we're probably looking at 3 out of 7 players remaining being scum, going into night, where they get to do their killing.

Cam

But if we don't lynch, then we will be in the same situation tomorrow with one less good guy.

Except if we're lucky, the Mafia will kill the SK or vice versa, and leave us in a decent (though not great) position. It's a risk, but hey - everything's risky at this point.

[Aelyn]

That's weird. I posted a response yesterday, but now it's gone.

In short, I didn't comment on Aelyn's numbers because they were crap. I don't doubt his mathematical ability, but a) they were approximations, and b) approximated without knowing any of the roles of the game. They were valid heuristics, but they weren't rigorous mathematical claims. I'm not sure what else to say about them.

I thought we had decided there were two killing groups already...how else did we get two kills in one night? Pooky? Unless I'm wrong, we've already identified candidates for the two killers, neither of which were Pooky.

Cam

Don't worry about that. I began figuring out the odds of crossfire between scum given certain cirumstances, and then after I had the overnight results, I basically guessed whether we had 20, 40, 60 or 80 percent chance of winning given each scenario. It's more gut instinct than mathematical analysis.

Personally, I really don't think no lynching is best for the town. However, we do need to make a decision at some point, and until and unless someone actually seems scummy to me, I'd rather no-lynch than risk hitting a townie. Yes, it's risky, but let's face it - if we lynch a townie at this point, we've pretty much lost.

[Aelyn]

I think we're beginning to go somewhere now, and I doubt a no lynch'll be needed.

Unvote: No Lynch

.

Well, if we're certain Ghazghkull's the SK, I'm fully believing of kleimar's claim. However, I still feel a certain scumminess to Aelyn.

unvote : kleimar, vote : Aelyn

Care to elaborate? You said that you felt my position on the killings was suspect. However, I stated at the time that the rethink was partially due to the knowledge Ghazghkull is present. Also, I elaborated on my reasoning, explaining how I simply hadn't considered Ghazghkull being the SK, and so didn't realize the kill fit his style too. I'd like to hear if it's anything other than gut feelings. Personally, I've been slightly suspicious of you for a while, as I mentioned earlier, and this attack without any specific reasoning makes me more so.

Somehow, I feel you might challenge me to explain my suspicions. Firstly, your reasoning for lynching JDTAY day one was "day one hunches" - and you never even spoke of that vote again, other to reiterate that it was simply a feeling you had!

Secondly, you unvoted Kleimar after he claimed cop. Then there was a short discussion about the benefits of no lynching, then you voted Kleimar again, saying you felt his claim could be false. This seemed a bit suspicious - voting for a claimed cop when no-one counterclaimed the role, which was very likely to be present. Then, with the only evidence of Ghazghkull being present and SK being Kleimar's claim, you say that you believe Ghazghkull is present, and therefore say Kleimar's claim is probably true. Circular logic much? (I should comment: Kleimar, this reasoning is in no way an attack on you, just inHim's unreliable logic.)

And thirdly, you voted me without really explaining yourself. The lack of reasoning made me more confident in my suspicions - confident enough to

Vote: inHimshallibe

[Aelyn]

That does explain the whole one death last night issue, actually.

As for Ghazghkull being a roleblocker... in a strange way, it makes sense for him to block you specifically, as opposed to random people in general. After all, Ghazghkull's long respected Yarrick as his biggest foe, and whenever they've come to blows it's always resulted in Ghazghkull getting the upper hand but overall it being a draw. It seems a tad convoluted, to be honest, but it kinda makes sense.

[Aelyn]

Just a heads-up, everyone: I'm not gonna be around for the next 72 hours, as I'm busy all weekend. I might be able to get one quick check in, but no guarantee.

[Aelyn]

Hi everyone, I got a free couple minutes to pop in.

Firstly, I didn't realise I still had the vote on.

Unvote: inHim

Secondly, Warpdragon's logic seems sound to me, but I'm not sure - Yarrick's almost certainly around, and no-one's contested the claim. Maybe Kleimar got lucky with a missing-character claim, and maybe Warpdragon's logic is deliberately twisting things in a way I don't see, given as I don't have time to re-read the thread. I'll wait and see what happens, but for now:

FOS: Warpdragon and Kleimar

[Aelyn]

Hmmm... kleimar's claim appears to be crumbling, or he just doesn't have his facts straight. I'm not getting a good read into this situation.

My vote stays though; this is mainly because Aelyn seems vague to me in the previous post, especially when mentioning warpdragon. He first states the logic "seems sound" but then "isn't sure," and then in the next sentence construes that perhaps warpdragon's logic is now "twisting" a view. Plus, I also just don't feel like Aelyn's pro-town.

Let's have a look at that statement, shall we?

Hi everyone, I got a free couple minutes to pop in.

Firstly, I didn't realise I still had the vote on.

Unvote: inHim

Secondly, Warpdragon's logic seems sound to me

Shal I rephrase this to your liking? Warpdragon’s logic appears sound given the premises he has implicitly relied upon: that Ghazghkull’s night actions work the same way no matter who he’s targeting and when he does.

, but I'm not sure - Yarrick's almost certainly around, and no-one's contested the claim.

Perhaps you misunderstood the parsing, inHim. The “I’m not sure” is more relating to the ideas Warpdragon has assumed – he’s ignored the fact that it’s characterful for Ghazghkull to simply roleblock Yarrick instead of killing him. Or perhaps it’s an unmentioned benefit of Yarrick – in the game Yarrick’s known from standing up from crippling blows, which is represented by him having an even chance of standing up again whenever he dies.

Maybe Kleimar got lucky with a missing-character claim, and maybe Warpdragon's logic is deliberately twisting things in a way I don't see

This is simply me hedging my bets, in case Warpdragon’s suckering us. It’s also a reminder to myself, and everyone else, to not take everything at face value. Also, as I stated immediately following that…:

, given as I don't have time to re-read the thread. I'll wait and see what happens, but for now.

Basically, I only had a couple minutes. As the net here is slow loading, I didn’t have time to check that Warpdragon hadn’t simply deliberately left out a significant sentence, or was choosing what parts to quote and how to read it carefully while ignoring context.

Kind of how you did to my post, actually.

I’m still suspicious of Kleimar, and Warpdragon, and I’m now a tad more suspicious of you, given how you conveniently missed important parts of my post.

I’ve gotta go now. I’ll re-read the thread in a few hours, and come to a decision about who’s scummiest. The FOS’s on Warpdragon and Kleimar remain, and I’ll also

FOS: inHimshallibe

[Aelyn]

OK, I figured it's be a good idea to re-read Kleimar’s posts and find everything in favour of, and against, Kleimar's claim.

So here goes.

(All quotes are from Kleimar. I’m gonna crop posts as I see fit, to get irrelevant stuff out of the way.)

Post 1:

random vote: JDTAY

Aelyn, what tyranid's have weapons that need to be charged up? The first killer doesn't seem to be a tyranid as far as I can see. Also it is stated the creature is humanoid…

“The first killer doesn’t seem to be a tyranid” – this could be a hint that he knows the SK isn’t a Tyranid, or it could simply be speculating. It could be interpreted as both for or against his roleclaim.

Post 2:

…So it seems to me that it may indeed be a tyranid. But it can be any other race that have some characters of a larger size.

Again, this could be interpreted as him simply not wishing to seem to eager. However, I feel that at this point he’s uncertain about the SK’s identity – a mark against the claim. In his shoes, I’d have offered the possibility that an Ork might be the SK. I might even have explicitly mentioned Ghazghkull Thraka, although that may be a tad risky given that it would draw Ghazghkull’s attention.

Post 3:

Well two kills almost certainly imply two killing groups. Or less likely one killing group and a vigilance that is doing things that are considered very bad play.
With two killing groups we can expect a town that at least have some powerful roles as well.

This seems to imply that he’s almost certain there are two killing groups. I’m willing to count this post as a mark in favour of his claim.

Post 5:

I agree with Aelyn. It is not that difficult to make a believable roleclaim. But it also depends greatly on the creativity of our mod. If he had stuck with the most important imperial special characters we may be able to find a false claim.

This implies to me that Kleimar doesn’t have a comparatively fringe Imperial character. It also implies that he understands the risk of claiming such an important character – I’d call this a mark in favour.

There’re a few posts which are less involved, and then in post 13:

There are many possible reasons.

There could be a back-up doc. The SK could have a killing restriction. The mafia and SK could have targeted the same player. The SK didn't get in his night action in time.

And there are some other less likely possibilities. Far too many possibilities to rule out a SK just yet.

(Emphasis mine) Woah. This one is big. Note that, according to Kleimar’s claim, he knows exactly why Ghazghkull didn’t kill – because he did a different action on Kleimar instead. However, Kleimar doesn’t even mention the possibility that it’s a flavour-based reason, character interaction, or even that the SK could have a second night ability he chose to use instead. I don’t know about the rest of you, but in Kleimar’s shoes, I’d have at least slid it in there as evidence to back up a future roleclaim. I certainly wouldn’t have made that post while knowingly leaving out the truth. This is, to my mind, a HUGE strike against the claim.

He roleclaimed in post 17, but didn’t mention the roleblocking until post 23, and didn’t mention who roleblocked him until post 24. This seems like an unusual choice, too – I’d have mentioned that as soon as possible, by saying something like

I may as well roleclaim. I’m Commisar Yarrick. Each night I can investigate if someone’s Ghazghkull – I’m not sure if I pick up on other scum or not. Me and Ghazghkull certainly have entwined roles, though – he targeted me last night, and instead of dying, I got roleblocked.” Or something along those lines. If you know something out of the ordinary which seems a tad suspicious, why wait until you’re forced to reveal it instead of volunteering it? If you wait, it feels like you’re trying to wriggle out of a corner – which is exactly what I think you’re doing here.

I’m pretty well convinced, on the re-read, that you’re scum. Warpdragon’s post made me a tad suspicious that he may be deliberately misinterpreting things, but having re-read the thread in detail and pointed out the early discrepancies in your claim…

Un-FOS Warpdragon… for now

Vote: Kleimar

[Aelyn]

The picture of Pooky's character, though, have me questioning whether or not there is a sk. Any more opinions?

Wait, I'm a little confused by this. How does the picture of the Inquisitor in his Throne make you wonder if there's an SK?

Bear in mind, the implication in the first-night death scene is that Azrael hid behind a bunch of ammo crates, which understandably exploded when they got hit by a shot of some sort. Hmm.

Would Pooky really use a vig kill N1 and not N2?

[Aelyn]

Alas, it's looking more and more likely with every re-read that the first night kill was the Throne.

Firstly, some inquisitors are notoriously trigger-happy, which I believe includes this particular Inquisitor - unfortunately, I'm a tad behind the Inquisition's storyline, and only vaguely know this character. The wave of white-hot energy fits melta-guns very well, and is very unlikely to be Ghazghkull's kustom blasta* or Abaddon's pattern Storm bolter.

The plasma weapons having no effect kinda makes sense, and the figure is more humanoid than a Dreadnought - which is what I initially thought the throne was, before seeing the picture. I doubt the first nightkill was Ghazghkull, now.

However, why would Pooky make a N1 kill but not an N2 kill? In all the games I've seen to date, all night choices come in, then they all happen at once. Perhaps the kill of the Inquisitor simply got higher priority than the Inquisitor's kill...

@Kleimar: In 2nd edition, Orks could ally with Chaos. However, in third edition and the most recent (third-and-a-halfth) edition, Ork were less anti-imperium and more... pro-Orks. They live to fight, and they'll happily fight anyone. Ghazghkull's the only Ork who really cares about organised attacking of other races, and even he's indiscriminate; odda are, if he's around, he's SK. Chaos is far more organised a group than the Orks are, and make a perfect mafia. The 'bad' races tend not to gang up that much - unless it's something weird like Abaddon, Ghazghkull, and Asdrubel Vect** as Mafia, and then a Necron god as the SK. But I doubt that. I still think there are two Mafia guys, especially given as we haven't hit one yet.

* I know I said rather contradictory things to this earlier, saying it was likely to be a Tyranid or an Ork. However, I managed to misread the very first nightkill as a shot impacting with the ammo crates, causing a white-hot explosion that rocked the ship.

**Asdrubel Vect (I hope I spelt that right!) is the leader of a major clan of Dark Eldar, which are essentially slavers. He's basically the definition of the word "callous", especially since his race thrives off the life-force of other species.

[Aelyn]

I apologise for my lack of clarity, Mathcam.

1) Flavourwise, it makes sense for Pooky to kill night 1, but there's no flavour reason for him to kill night 1 but not night 2. If he chose to kill night 1, it wasn't because he had to.

2) There's maybe a 5% chance that, if Ghazghkull is in the game, he's in the Mafia. 10% tops, to my mind.

[Aelyn]

2) There's maybe a 5% chance that, if Ghazghkull is in the game, he's in the Mafia. 10% tops, to my mind.

What assumptions are being made here about the make-up of the scum group? Couldn't it be, say, a big bad guy from each of three different factions, united as one to defeat "the good guys"?

Cam

Actually, thet's the reasoning behind the 5% figure; while it's theoretically possible that baddies from different races could team up to beat the Imperium, it's highly unlikely, as fundamentally most bad guy groups are highly selfish and consider pretty much everyone else to be utterly worthless in comparison (actually, to be fair, so do we. But at least we're right about it.)

However, Abaddon's easily the most powerful Chaos figure, and has implicit approval of all four gods as the main chaos dude. It wouldn't surprise me for his control to extend over one or two other big Chaos figures, and persuade them join his cause.

[Aelyn]

I know I'm just picking you on here, but if you wouldn't be surprised, then why only 10% tops?

I'm only making this a key issue because this was the most likely explanation for the scenario that kleimar wasn't scum, so I'll need to do some serious thinking if you really think it unlikely.

Cam

I'm really sorry, I've just realied the mistake.

See, a lot of games of this nature use the term "chaos" to simply mean "bad guys". However, in Warhammer 40K, it's a little different - there are three or four "bad guy" races, such as the Dark Eldar, Orks, and Tyranids, and the most important of these is known as Chaos.

Ghazghkull Thraka is an Ork; he's not one of the great Chaos characters. The big Chaos characters are Horus (The great betrayor, thankfully destroyed ten thousand years ago, but his legacy lives on), Abaddon the Despoiler, Kharne the Betrayor, Ahriman, Cypher, the Nightlord (I think, I'm a tad behind with Chaos), and a couple others. My point is that it's far more likely that Abaddon would team up with another large Chaos character, like perhaps Cypher or Ahriman, than with an Ork and a Dark Eldar.

Sorry for the confusion. I'd forgotten that most games say "chaos" and mean "evil", wheras 40K goes into rather more detail.

[Aelyn]

The second was almost certainly Mafia. I'd recognise that MO anywhere; That's Kharne the Betrayor, or I'm a short-haired purple Fraggle.

I agree with the mass roleclaim idea, but I'd like to hear more opinions on it first.

[Aelyn]

Basically, 86, Mass roleclaiming is where we all reveal what our role name is, the idea being that the scum can't honestly claim because they'd stand out like a sore thumb. Therefore, they have to lie. Hopefully, they'd claim the same thing as someone actually has, and we'll know for certain that one of those two players are scum. We can then figure out which is scummier, and lynch that player. Hopefully, we'll get it right.

Should there be no duplicates, we'll have to figure out which claims are weakest and least likely. It's a bit tougher, but still very doable.

I think that only claiming names is right for the moment, although if you guys would rather claim role too, I'm happy with that.

[Aelyn]

Basically, I only voted for Kleimar simply because I felt his claim didn't make much sense, especially given his actions earlier on in the game.

EnPace, is there any reason you feel that there's two docs? That seems a little powerful in a game this size.

[Aelyn]

Now that the scum has had plenty of time to research a good guy role the mass roleclaim will be somewhat useless. We could just claim our mafia role and leave out our game character.

Since the game has become slightly stagnant I went through the thread again.

FOS: Aelyn

Aelyn is obviously the player with the most warhammer knowledge. Why hasn't he been the mafia's prime target then? To me it would seem like the mafia would want to take down the guy who could help the town with death scene interruptations or role claim characters. If the mafia thought there was ever a time when they had to claim a role why keep around the guy who had enough knowledge to analyze that claim using warhammer experience?

I imagine that the Mafia decided to nightkill the most useful posters, rather than the most knowledgable ones regarding the theme. Mathcam is plain better at this game than me, so that's probably why I survived last night. As for night 2... I have no idea. I can't see why Pooky was chosen to die, unless the Mafia know something we don't, or there's a redirector, or something. Sorry, can't really help you there.

In day one he pointed out a few times that he was the most prolific poster. The first time was fine but the other times it almost looked like he was saying "look at me, I'm posting the most. I can't be mafia!"
His insights into kleimar's claim were a little on the misleading side.
For these reasons I think Aelyn is mafia.

Woah, what? Re-reading my posts (several times!) I can't see me mentioning relative post counts more that once day 1, and that was when I decided to prompt lurkers to post. Maybe you read more into my own posts than I did, but I can't see what you mean.

My insights regarding Kleimar were unfortunate - I felt he was scum, and was wrong. I apologise for leading everyone into a terrible mistake, but I don't apologise for speaking up when I felt he was scum - even if I was wrong.

I agree that the game has become stagnant. We need to do something, and we need to soon. Roleclaiming seems to be the best way to move forward, and if Machine agrees or if no-one can come up with a better idea, I'll claim in a day or two.

[Aelyn]

I'm fine with that order.

[Aelyn]

OK, so I'm starting, right?

I am Captain Cortez of the Crimson Fists. I'm a vanilla townie, except that I'm immune to the first nightkill attempt on me in the game.

inHim?

[Aelyn]

I've already checked, he hasn't posted since the last time in this thread, on Wednesday.

[Aelyn]

Warning: Long post follows.

I guess he's not here. He left abruptly and without warning, soon after essentially saying he was gonna post pretty soon. He's not put anything in the Limited Access thread; my guess is that he's simply unexpectedly missing net access.

I recommend we give him the rest of the weekend, at least. He may be able to post on Monday. If he doesn't, then...

Mod, would it be a good idea to start perhaps looking into a replacement for EnPace? I know it's not a good idea at this stage in the game, but it's better than hanging by a thread.

That said, I do have a few things to say regarding the roleclaims so far. I was planning on leaving them until everyone had claimed, but that seems like it may in theory be quite a way away, so I'll mention them now.

Firstly, we can discount the possibility that Maximumum is Ghazghkull. Why? Because there's no reason for inHim to lie like that unless he knew that Maximumum's claim could back it up. There's no reason for a mafia investigator to try and protect the SK, especially at this point, and there's certainly no chance that Orkish weapons are beyond Logan Grimnar's comprehension. Therefore, one of the following three must be true:

1) Maximumum is scum with inHimshallIbe, and they formulated their roleclaims to reinforce the strength of each others' claim. Note how inHim declined to reveal two of his three investigations "in case someone is lying", when obviously at this stage three out of the five players must be lying. In this case, one out of me, EnPace and The_Machine must be Ghazghkull.

2) Maximumum and inHimshallIbe are the two townies, which means logically that me, The_Machine and EnPace are scum.

3) Maximumum is being perfectly honest, but inHimshallIbe is a Mafia investigator and decided to use a gutsy tactic, implying Maximumum's innocence while leaving it open to interpretation (seeing as Chaos uses demos-based devices which Grimnar couldn't comprehend) before making a slightly-more-innocence-proving "investigation" on his partner.

4) The converse of (3), inHimshallIbe is exactly who he claims to be, but Maximumum saw that the vague result gave him a plausible out.

In both (3) and (4), two out of myself, EnPace and The_Machine are scum.

Now, I know for certain that (2) is not correct (since I am not scum). This means that (1), (3) or (4) must be correct instead.

Looking at each of them: I don't immediately disbelieve either, but I know that can't be right. I’m thus pulled to option (3) or (4), since I doubt both are lying; their roleclaims just fits too perfectly with how they’ve been playing and what little we know about them from the execution scenes (Logan’s impatience and fiery temper both days, the very subtle implication that PBug isn’t human day 1).

Personally, right now I find Maximumum the more dodgy of the two, partly because I’d be surprised if the naïve yet technologically advanced Tau character has no special abilities, especially given the battlesuit Commander O’Shovah wears, but also because I feel that Maximumum’s claim is more likely to be scum seeing an opportunity than inHim’s claim being a ballsy gambit. However, I haven’t yet ruled out the possibility that the two are scum together. Here’s the percentage likelihood of each case in my opinion:
(1): 35% likely. (2): 0% likely. (3): 20% likely. (4): 45% likely.

However, I haven’t taken into account the probabilities of EnPace and The_Machine being scum yet. So take the numbers above as flexible; I’m really not certain, quite yet, who the remaining townie is.

I’d like more info. It seems like, at this stage, holding back information could well turn out to be lethal. For example:
InHim: Who did you investigate each night, and what was the result?
Machine: How precisely does your ability work? What’s the flavour for it?
Maximumum: What, if anything, does it say regarding your battlesuit?
EnPace: Who are you?

If anyone else has any questions regarding any claim, please put them forward. The last thing we want is lack of clarity at this stage.

Also, the last thing to remember is this: No matter what, there will be scum voting for whoever gets lynched today. The majority of the town here is scum. Therefore, take everything, EVERYTHING, with a pinch of salt at this point.

Thoughts, everyone?

[Aelyn]

Oops, sorry for the double post, especially with such a long one!

[Aelyn]

OK, I've completely changed my notion about who's scum. It's obvious now that Maximumum and inHim are scum - idea (1) from above was correct.

InHim is lying about investigating me. I know I won't be able to convince you guys of that, but it's true. More tellingly, look at Maximumum's post - his main reasoning for following inHim is that I haven't been nightkilled yet, but the Mafia probably would have nightkilled me. Of course, if those two are working together, they could easily have decided to not kill me, and use this as the basis for trying to get me lynched.

As further evidence, Maximumum says that the battlesuit wasn't mentioned - but O'Shovah fights in this battle suit, and I find it unlikely that the mod would include the Inquisitor's Throne but not the custom battle suit.

The_Machine, me asking about the flavour was actually a deliberate trap. I'd hoped that, had you been scum, you'd have mentioned the Last Chancers as reasoning behind the kill, which makes no sense in the context of the game (as no way would a secret meeting of Imperial leaders include a ragtag group of criminals)

I don't really know what to think about EnPace. His posts haven't exactly been heavily pro-town, but there hasn't been much scummy stuff either. He's spent most of his time confused, it seems, which I think might be misdirection.

Currently, I'm 100% sure that inHim is scum, about 90% sure that Maximumum is scum, about 70% sure that enPace is scum, and about 40% sure that The_Machine is scum.

Vote: inHimshallIbe

[Aelyn]

Good game all! And thanks for the show of trust, Cam...

It was a great game. A good balance of roles meant that the game was actually about deceit and reading people instead of just figuring the game out based on the theme. Of course, given how I managed to fool the town for the entire game despite my prominence and my involvement in lynching a claimed cop does kinda influence my opinion

Everyone else, how did you find the game?