Mini 148: Christmas Mafia! Game Over!

[HairyMezican]

1. Crola
   
2. Dmi
   
3. DoomCow
   
4. Electra
   
5. Fuldu
   
6. HairyMezican
   
7. MeMe
   
8. rolandofthewhite
   
9. Stewie
   
10. Xanthe

I will be voting for...d10 = 452977837

[HairyMezican]

Random Vote: Dmi

[HairyMezican]

Poor doggy.

Poor kid.

[HairyMezican]

Flying Dutchman seemed to put an awful lot of time into that song. Anybody have any guesses as to what song the radio will be playing tomorrow morning?

[HairyMezican]

He could have just said that the little boy turned on the radio and sang along with it.

Instead he adds a

lot

more detail. It's playing "Santa Claus is Coming To Town." The boy sings along, here are the lyrics.

[HairyMezican]

Geez, I try to start a conversation about

something

, because nothing is happening, and I get flak. Then you have the nerve to complain about the game stalling.

unvote[/i]

vote: Stewie

just because I don't have anything to go on, and it serves you right.

[HairyMezican]

I lose my internet connection for a week, and nobody votes for me for lurking. You should all be ashamed of yourself.

I'm not sure I want to vote for Crola right now. Having read 1 or 2 threads in which Crola was playing, he attempts to be helpful, but very rarely is. Last game, he claimed very early.

very

early.

[HairyMezican]

Yes, Crola's lack of high level abstract logic, and incessant posting of irrelevant drivel is typical, and appears to get him into arguments every game. I guess the fact that that always happens though doesn't mean that he isn't scum.

I guess I'm not really convinced of his scumminess, but in order to get rid of his posts from the rest of the game, I guess I could support his lynch if it came down to it. I wish people would post more so I could get a better idea of who is/isn't scum.

[HairyMezican]

That's interesting.

Oh well,

minor FOS: Mimi

[HairyMezican]

I guess I should clarify my FOS. Crola was saying one thing, you were saying another. Crola's story was somewhat confirmed. But the thing is Crola talks in gibberish, and even if the weatherman is accurate, there is no guarantee that Crola understood everything he was told. Nevertheless, it is worth a minor FOS.

[HairyMezican]

Crola said he blocked me. I wasn't blocked. The two obvious possibilities yesterday were 1) Crola's lying and 2) FD screwed up. We now know that Crola wasn't lying (unless he's a complete moron). I also am now pretty sure that FD didn't screw up as most mods would admit to doing so rather than letting their game be compromised by confusion that they caused.

So I'm left with considering a third possibility: Crola isn't always accurate. Kinda like a weatherman.

Actually, I would be more inclined to go with the "Crola is a complete moron" route.

[HairyMezican]

From what I've seen of mass claims before, DMI, the correct order would be to start with Meme, then have her pick the next person, and that person pick the next person and so on and so forth.

[HairyMezican]

Child - part of the same masonry as DoomCow. Also, every night, I get to guess what the next song to be played in the morning is. If I get it right, I can't be lynched.

Is that everybody?

[HairyMezican]

I don't have time to look through everything right now, I will do it later. This is my preliminary analysis.

I know I am pro-town, and strongly believe that DoomCow is also, as my PM says we are all working to save Christmas.

The next most believable is Dmi, and assuming that he can play "I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus" tomorrow morning, I will believe him even further.

There are 4 more people left, of whom 3 are most likely scum.
Meme - claims cop
Stewie - claims cop mason
Electra - claims weak cop
Xanthe - claims mailman

I find it unlikely that we have

no

cops, which means that at least 1 of {Meme,Stewie,Electra} must be telling the truth. If we assume that only 1 of {Meme,Stewie,Electra,Xanthe} is telling the truth, it follows that Xanthe is lying.

Thus I am tempted to vote for Xanthe, but will refrain for now because I am making quite a few assumptions in my analysis (3 scum, Dmi and Doomcow innocent, >= 1 investigator).

Has anyone here received a postcard? Xanthe, who have you sent postcards to?


I would actually appreciate revelations from all 3 "cops," as we are in something close to a lynch-or-die situation. Stewie has already performed, I would like to hear from Meme and Electra (Even if they aren't useful).

[HairyMezican]

I don't know if me guessing the song in the morning counts as moving or not, in any case, there are 2 people dead, which is going to take 2 actions, right?

[HairyMezican]

I think I have heard enough for right now.

Although I could believe a cop masonry could exist with 3 people in this game, the stuff that Stewie is saying just doesn't make sense anymore.

I will most likely vote for him tomorrow when I'm not tired and have a better chance to reread everything

[HairyMezican]

I think I have heard enough for right now.

Although I could believe a cop masonry could exist with 3 people in this game, the stuff that Stewie is saying just doesn't make sense anymore.

I will most likely vote for him tomorrow when I'm not tired and have a better chance to reread everything

[HairyMezican]

I think everybody has expressed an interest in having Meme reveal her results except for DoomCow. DoomCow, do you want a revelation?

[HairyMezican]

The main reason Stewie's story sounded far-fetched to me was the whole mod-kill thing he was mentioning. I'm normally a little bit skeptical of people who claim they can't give more info for fear of being mod-killed, and the part he was cliaming he would get mod-killed for didn't make sense to me.

[HairyMezican]

...And I just don't see that

vote: Stewie

[HairyMezican]

do I have something against you? Other than the fact that I think you are mafia in both of the minis that I am playing, no.

That having been said, I would probably also be willing to vote for Xanthe or Electra, as that is my current best guesses for who is and who isn't mafia

[HairyMezican]

I don't see how delving into the definition of whether or not something is moving, or how the candles could move would put you into a position where you would have to reveal enough of your PM to constitute mod-quoting, which is what you have claimed the case to be.

As I do not believe you, it seems prudent for me to attempt to LynchAllLiars, and vote for you.

Although now that I think about it, if you are scum you are probably mafia with Xanthe, perhaps I should be going after Electra. Ah well. Vote stands unless someone convinces me otherwise.

[HairyMezican]

and it seems absurd to me that there is a word in your PM that, by itself, would consittute a serious enough offense of mod-quoting to get you mod-killed.

[HairyMezican]

The point of no mod-quoting is not so that it is harder to communicate; the point of mod-quoting is to make sure people don't use it to confirm roles, i.e. "What is the 9th word of your role PM?"

I really cannot see somebody getting mod-killed for using the phrase, "get off the bed." It would be like me getting mod-killed for claiming the "Child" role, as the word "Child" appears in my role PM.

[HairyMezican]

I guess Electra it is then. Once Xanthe votes for Electra, I will as well.

And Xanthe, the argument is not that there is no way that there is a phrase that cannot be repeated verbatim; the argument is that the chances are so slim, especially when compared to the chances that he is scum, that I think he is our best option. At this point, we can't prove anybody is scum, but to me it is becoming less and less likely that stewie is what he says he is.

[HairyMezican]

Wait, there are 7 people alive, I think it only takes 4 to lynch. Here goes nothing.

unvote: Stewie

vote: Electra

I think that makes twilight, no?

[HairyMezican]

I'd just like to say, to anyone listening out there, that it would make this little kid's dreams come true if "I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus" was playing on the radio tomorrow morning. It would make Christmas that much more special.

[HairyMezican]

Where is dutchman?

[HairyMezican]

I'm actually a little suspicious that you're still alive MeMe. I would think that any scum out there would go after the person claiming to be the cop rather than the person who claimed some bizarre investigative mason group. With the doctor dead, it seems like you would have been an easy kill. Perhaps the mafia are trying to get us to play WIFOM, but I would really like whoever peeked at you to come forward.

I'm also a little suspicious of Dmi right now. He can't name songs, nor can he get others to name songs. This doesn't seem to be very reliable.

[HairyMezican]

Sorry, using the internet has been a pain lately; I've been in the frustrating process of trying to get rid of all of the spyware crap on my computer.

Xanthe, it says something alon gthe lines of us all working together to save christmas. I suppose it could be possible that DoomCow is ALSO working to destroy Christmas, but it is my hunch that that is not true.

I'm not terribly good at guess the scum, but right now, I believe the scum is MeMe.

vote: MeMe

[HairyMezican]

The bait doesn't seem like one that anybody, scum or not, would take unless it were true. Thus the conclusion I take from this is that something did happen last night that you two know about, and you are denying it to make DoomCow look guilty.

I'm wondering why DoomCow attacking you is plausible, but you attacking DoomCow should be completely laughed at on the face of it. I think there is something here that I am missing.

I'm wondering if this is the night Santa went crazy.

With the bizarre logic that seems to be thrown around here, there is one big thing that would cause me to take my vote off of MeMe, and that would be her assurance that she is our SK. If we operate on the Worst-Case Scenario, we have 2 townies, 2 mafia, and 1 SK. Killing the SK would mean that the Mafia wins.

Even if she is not our SK, having the SK come forward would be helpful for both the SK and the town, so I think it would be in our best interest.

[HairyMezican]

-rereading thread

It is tough to tell who is what. I'm not convinced that DoomCow is mafia. A lot of the specifics that MeMe seems to be saying went into her strategy seem suspect. A little WIFOM, some CrapLogic there, that is what makes me suspect her right now.

It seems like there are two scenarios right now, anybody can feel free to chime in with other possible scenarios.

Scenario I: DoomCow

did

see MeMe last night
In this case she was probably trying to kill me. Both DoomCow and MeMe get a message. DoomCow's lets him know that he was coming to check up on me last night. MeMe's lets her know that she was seen last night and was unable to kill me. Knowing that she was seen and that the kill was stopped, MeMe lets everyone know that somebody saw her, and then denies the story afterwards in order to sandbag. She also claims to have the protection ability as a rationale as to where the extra kill went.

Scenario II: DoomCow tried to kill MeMe last night
In this case, MeMe actually does have a protective ability, and either knew that somebody saw her, or reasoned that since all of the other protective abilities are gone, that somebody must have tried to kill her. She hatches a plan to try to get the would-be killer to come out, and it works to everybody's surprise.


In any case, I don't think I will be voting for DoomCow right now, as his actions just don't strike me as particularly suspect. In addition, the chats that we've had at night don't lead me to believe that if he were scum that he would've attacked you last night. Which makes me lean towards the first scenario a bit more. On top of that, the fact that you are trying to rush things along right here seem a bit scummy.

I am going to

unvote

though, because I think you might be the SK, and I don't want an easy Mafia victory. Even if you truly believe that DoomCow is scum, I would advise both you and Dmi to unvote DoomCow for the same reasons. We are down to 5 people, we need to be careful.

Scenario I: DoomCow

did

see MeMe last night
In this case she was probably trying to kill me. Both DoomCow and MeMe get a message. DoomCow's lets him know that he was coming to check up on me last night. MeMe's lets her know that she was seen last night and was unable to kill me. Knowing that she was seen and that the kill was stopped, MeMe lets everyone know that somebody saw her, and then denies the story afterwards in order to sandbag. She also claims to have the protection ability as a rationale as to where the extra kill went.

Scenario II: DoomCow tried to kill MeMe last night
In this case, MeMe actually does have a protective ability, and either knew that somebody saw her, or reasoned that since all of the other protective abilities are gone, that somebody must have tried to kill her. She hatches a plan to try to get the would-be killer to come out, and it works to everybody's surprise.


In any case, I don't think I will be voting for DoomCow right now, as his actions just don't strike me as particularly suspect,

[HairyMezican]

I wish I knew how to quick edit, the formatting of that is just ugly

[HairyMezican]

Well in Scenario I, we only have a weak cop, perhaps the slightly powered up masons are an attempt to bolster the weakened town.

In Scenario II, we have 2 cops, and 2 masonries. I'm not sure how this one works out for game-balance, because one of the masonries in Scenario II.

In any case, I think the pseudo-gaming isn't going to help us out all that much.

The main thing that makes me believe DoomCow over you right now is being a mason is a much stronger claim than cop at this point. In addition, from the brief chats we have had, he hasn't been setting off my scumdar.

Right now I'm think Santa Claus has gone crazy, and Dmi and Xanthe are the rebelling elves, with duties that they have to perform. Not to do more pseudo-gaming, but it seems everybody that has died so far has had rather stereotypical roles with some extra stuff added on. Under this scheme we have 1 weak cop, 1 weak vig, 1 weak role-blocker, 1 doc, and 2 groups of semi-strong masons.

I could be wrong, and I'm not going to be basing my votes on this, I'm just throwing it out there.

[HairyMezican]

I'm not saying that I'm 100% sure about my role assignments. Right now I (understandably) trust DoomCow a little more than the rest of you three.

Also, if I assume that you (MeMe) are innocent, then by logic, I should also assume that Dmi is innocent. Which would leave the scum roles as me, DoomCow, and Xanthe. How does that strike you guys?

My current suspicions are based off of the role-claims. Both Dmi and Xanthe have non-practical roles, that seem well suited for elves.

This is why I'm a little reluctant to vote for DoomCow, because something just doesn't add up, and right now, your information just doesn't sit well with me MeMe.


Anyways, let's look over some scenarios:

Losing Scenario: We hit the SK. That leaves 2 Mafia + 2 Townies tonight. Mafia kills a townie, and wins tomorrow.

Losing Scenario: We hit a townie. That leaves 2 Mafia + 1 Townie + 1 SK tonight. The town has already lost here, and the SK will probably lose as well. There is about a 50% chance that the SK will hit the Mafia, and about a 50% chance that the Mafia will hit the Townie. Assuming both happen, it is a draw between the SK and the Mafia, otherwise Mafia wins.

Only acceptible lynch for the town: We hit a mafia member. That leaves 1 Mafia + 2 Townies + 1 SK. In this scenario, anybody could win depending on how the politics play out. This is the only scenario in which either the SK or the Townies have a shot at winning. But in order for this scenario to play out, the SK has to vote along with the 2 Townies against a mafia member.

No Lynch: This option might work, the SK has to have a good enough notion of who is scum and who is not in order for this to work though, because if the SK fails to hit scum, the town loses regardless.

Conclusion: It is imperative for both the Town and the SK's sake that the SK reveal himself. Either that or we should look at the "No Lynch" option.

[HairyMezican]

Also, their obtuseness to realize that MeMe's Santa, and she said she was a cop.
Unless Santa's evil, which just doesn't hold, and if it were so, this game would suck and I won't care much about the outcome.

Therefore, MeMe is not scum. She investigated me. I am not scum. I doubt there are two mafias, but only one, which is why HM wants to know who the SK is.

However, it cannot be denied that DoomCow took some bait and was wrong. He lied to us with no reason for doing so. He should be lynched.

Stellar logic. I'm pretty sure we can peg Dmi as part of the Mafia, and I'm starting to think it is with MeMe, which makes a lot more sense than with Xanthe. If MeMe was the SK, and claimed the mafia was innocent, the mafia would know she was lying, and then kill her during the night.

I think the possible configurations for mafia/SK are as follows:
(this is assuming I am innocent)

Mafia: Dmi/MeMe SK: Xanthe (Somebody's gone Postal)
Mafia: Dmi/MeMe SK: DoomCow (Mother killing to protect her son or something)
Mafia: Dmi/DoomCow SK: MeMe (Mafia realizes that MeMe is lying, sends DoomCow to kill her, scenario II results)
Mafia: Dmi/Xanthe SK: MeMe (My original suspicions, but Dmi has to be a godfather here)


In any case, I am starting to think that Dmi is a really good lynch right about now, do you guys have any suggestions?

[HairyMezican]

Xanthe - I don't think Electra was the SK, both Scenarios outlined above have a more likely reason attached which would explain why there was only 1 kill last night.

[HairyMezican]

Dmi - I think you do control the music. I although think there is a very good chance that you are scum, especially considering your stellar logic. Let's review:

* Santa Claus is good
* MeMe is Santa Claus
* Therefore MeMe must be good
* MeMe investigated me and said that I am good, therefore I must be good too
* (unsaid, but implied) Since there are 3 scum left, and us two are good, you guys must all be evil.

Unfortunately, you are assuming that Santa Claus must be good, which is a dangerous assumption at this point, and one that I am pretty sure must be false. I am not sure why you are taking it for granted that Santa Claus must indeed be good?

Xanthe- We can't rule out MeMe as the SK. She might just think it is in her best interest not to come out. If the SK comes out, and we hit mafia tonight, the mafia know who to kill tonight. She may have just thought that she could talk her way out of it.

Okay, based on where the votes stacked up earlier during this game day, and assuming that anybody was here to place a lynching vote, let's figure out which mafias don't work

we had MeMe and Dmi voting for DoomCow, we had DoomCow and I voting for MeMe.

If Xanthe or I are part of the mafia, then DoomCow must be also, otherwise, one of us would have put the final vote on DoomCow.

If Xanthe or Dmi are part of the mafia, then MeMe must also be, otherwise one of you two would have put the final vote on MeMe.

This clears Xanthe as part of the mafia, as it would require him to be mafia with both DoomCow and MeMe, which if it were true would mean we should have already lost. This doesn't yet clear him as SK.

The only mafias involving me or Dmi, would be
DoomCow and I
MeMe and Dmi.

The only other combination left would be MeMe and DoomCow, but I think we can safely rule that one out, as if it were true, I doubt MeMe would be pushing as hard as she did to lynch DoomCow.

Since I know that I am not mafia, I think that means that MeMe and Dmi must be mafia, which makes sense to me. The only question to me now is who the SK is, either DoomCow or Xanthe.

Of course, this assumes that you were around when MeMe had 2 votes on her. I suppose it is possible that you and DoomCow are the mafia, and MeMe would then be the SK, but I don't think that is a strong possibility. All in all, I think I would be happy with either a Dmi or MeMe lynch.

[HairyMezican]

I would be satisfied with a MeMe lynch. We should probably wait for her to get back; I think she will just try to toss suspicion onto me and DoomCow, but so be it.

[HairyMezican]

I think now would be a good time to vote for somebody I'm pretty sure is mafia:

Vote: MeMe

[HairyMezican]

Sorry I was out for a while. On Monday night I suffered a separation of my costochodral, and I've had more important things to worry about than mafia.

Anyways, back to the game. MeMe is claiming to be the SK now, and after going through the possibilities, I think she is full of it. The potential mafias, from my eyes are either MeMe & Dmi, with either DoomCow or Xanthe as the SK, or DoomCow & Xanthe as the mafia, and MeMe as the SK.

1) MeMe & Dmi have acted much more like scum this past day than DoomCow & Xanthe
2) MeMe's timing is a little bit suspicious
3) So is her dialogue with Dmi
4) The fact that Xanthe has not voted for MeMe in my absence has sealed the deal for me

I guess now I just need to wait for Xanthe to post.

some things for Xanthe to consider:

I realize that it is possible from your eyes that DoomCow & I are the mafia, but which mafia seems more likely? I'm pretty sure you will agree that it is MeMe & Dmi.

[HairyMezican]

Dmi, I would like to point out that it is provable that I am not part of the mafia. If I were mafia with Xanthe, DoomCow would be lynched by now. If I were mafia with DoomCow, Xanthe would be lynched by now. If I were mafia with you or MeMe, one of the two would be lynched by now. If I were mafia with more than one person, the game would be over at this point. Therefore, if I am scum, I am alone.

Also, I would like to point out that MeMe's analysis of who the SK must be is wrong, and I'm surprised that someone of MeMe's experience would be as wrong as she is. In order for the SK to have a serious chance of winning this game, mafia must be lynched today; they have the same goals as town for today only. Which means they should be reading through the posts and trying to figure out who the mafia is, instead of voting for the most convenient person.

MeMe is correct when she said that it is not in the SK's best interest to come forward. I guess the SK didn't take the bait.

[HairyMezican]

A quick recap for the replacement:

MeMe claims to be an innocent cop. She also claims that Dmi is innocent. She also claims that DoomCow tried to kill her last night. Stewie also died last night.

Let's assume MeMe is innocent for a second, believe everything she says, and try to figure out everything else.

It stands to reason that there are 2 killing groups, one of which DoomCow is party to (who tried to kill MeMe last night), and the one that killed Stewie. We also have a maximum of 3 scum, because we have 2 people "cleared." Thus we have one of two scenarios:

1 SK, 2 Mafia -
This scenario is the one to be worried about. If you are town, you need to lynch mafia today, if you are SK, it would help you greatly to lynch mafia.

If you are town, then you can outright reject this scenario. You, me, and Dmi would have to all be scum for this scenario to work.

If you are the SK, you can still reject this scenario, as it would require DoomCow and I to be the mafia. If this were the case, one of us would have voted for you when MeMe and Dmi had their votes on you to allow us to win the game.

If you are part of the Mafia, you will probably vote for MeMe anyways, so it really isn't worth delving into.

Thus if we have this critical scenario, it is in your best interest to lynch MeMe.

2 SK -
This scenario is not a lynch right or die scenario. If we lynch MeMe, and she ends up innocent, we will have a pickle on our hands, but with some careful logic, we should be able to determine which 2 among you, me, and DoomCow are the SK's.

If we have this scenario, it is difficult to know who the best lynch is, but MeMe wouldn't be a bad lynch.

[HairyMezican]

As I've stated before, I think MeMe's scum because her story just doesn't add up. If Dmi's innocent, as she claims, and we have 2 Mafia + 1SK, as she clearly believes, that means that you and I and DoomCow are all scum.

This doesn't quite add up, because I can't be mafia, or else you would be lynched by now, and you can't be mafia, or MeMe would be lynched by now. That doesn't really leave enough room for the mafia.

That's under 10 lines, right? I win!!

[HairyMezican]

Dragon Pheonix - Are you saying that if MeMe and Dmi are the mafia, you are having trouble identifying what Dmi's role would be that would work with a Santa role? Also, if Stewie were an SK, why does his death description say, "Candle," and why is MeMe claiming that DoomCow tried to kill her?

Dmi - Actually, DoomCow can't be Mafia, if he were, he would've voted for Xanthe in post 344. If we have a mafia, the only combination that still works is you and MeMe.

[HairyMezican]

Sorry for the double post,

Dragon Pheonix - if you think there is a possibility that there is a mafia left, your best vote right now is for MeMe. If you are absolutely sure that we have 2 SK's, then you should vote for DoomCow. I'm not convinced that we have no mafia, and believe MeMe to be the better lynch by far.

MeMe -

I do think it's prudent to try for mafia today just in case we've still got two left.

If we have 2 mafia left, who would they be?

I can't be it, or else either DoomCow or Xanthe would have been lynched.
DP can't be it, or else DoomCow or you would have been lynched.
DoomCow can't be it because Xanthe would have been lynched.
You have to admit, if you think it's prudent to try for mafia today, then you are the prudent lynch at this point.

This is why I've been riding hard on you, if we go with the assumption that there are 2 mafia left, you and Dmi rise high above any other platform.

But HM's twisted logic sure looks like someone stretching to protect his partner

stretching to protect 2 different people? Or more likely, convinced he has caught scum. Stretching to protect a partner would look something more like:

Also, HairyMezican and DoomCow, I think I'm correct in assuming that MeMe and I are mafia.
If that is the case, I would rather have me lynched than MeMe because face it, if we're telling the truth, I'm just a townie and MeMe's a cop.

[HairyMezican]

I have a feeling the town just got screwed

[HairyMezican]

I still don't understand how getting blocked clears you as the SK, but leaves you free to be the cop, ah well. Nobody listens to the Mezican. I guess I was wrong about DoomCow, but I figured, even if I was,

I

didn't need to get her killed, as I didn't think she would kill me.

There were a few things that MeMe was saying that didn't make sense, and a few places, were if she were telling the truth, I thought she would have brought it up differently, so I pretty dang sure she was scum, and it seemed pretty obvious to me with all of the stuff she was saying on day 3; that was frustrating.