Mini 147: Warhammer 40,000 - Game Over!

[mathcam]

First, sorry for not noticing the game had started.

Second, why is lynching me the safest plan, JD? What are you talking about?

As to the mass role-claims, while not a horrible plan, it does involve its fair share of risks. For one, if

no one

's claim appears shady, then all we've done is exposed exactly where all our powerful pro-town roles are to the mafia, which is obviously bad. Second, it's also possible that some of the shadier claims turn out to be pro-town, in which case we've not only revealed our power-roles, we've also given the scum a couple of free lynches.

On the other hand, if there are, say, exactly 12 roles that the 12 of us could be, then it's pretty safe to say that claiming names (not abilities) would be an awesome play. If there's a large number, this benefit is diminished. Maybe someone with a bit more knowledge about the theme could say something on this matter.

Vote: JDTay

for pretending his vote is anything but random or crap.

Cam

[mathcam]

But if, as Aelyn and kleimar suggest, that there's plenty enough character to go around, then there's little point in doing that. Yes, we

might

catch scum in a lie, but in the process we may reveal all our powerful roles (certain names certainly go with certain roles, at least heuristically).

Cam

[mathcam]

My point was just that you can often tell what the role is just by the character name, or at least form a decent opinion, so depending on the game of course, name-claiming might be just as bad as role-claiming.

Cam

[mathcam]

I have no idea what's going on, so I'll go with the safest plan.

vote mathcam

I'm still waiting to hear from mathcam, it's part of my perfectly safe strategy.

I've just been doing random day one stuff like you guys. Why do I get singled out?

So is voting for me a plan, or is it random?

I'm happy with my vote.

Cam

[mathcam]

Hm, 2 townies, a cop, and a vig dead. Not good. It's been a while...I need a re-read.

Cam

[mathcam]

I wouldn't think so, personally.

And I think an

FOS: kleimar

is in order for that immediate vote on inHim today. It's scummy for someone to defend someone who turns out to be scum, but to attack someone who turns out to be innocent isn't overtly scummy...scum and town are both equally likely to do this. But I'm not FOSing him for disagreeing with me, but for so quickly trying to get votes started today, especially since we're in such a near-lynch-or-lose situation.

Cam

[mathcam]

I would say it's becoming standard (though certainly not a rule) to indicate a double-kill of one person in the death scene, which would indicate whether or not the SK and mafia both targeted the same person.

Cam

[mathcam]

Dum dum de dum.

Cam

[mathcam]

Aelyn, the last half of your post reads "There hasn't been much said recently, so I'm going to wait until people say something before I comment." That's pretty selfish, isn't it?

Vote: Kleimar

just to get things stirring.

Cam

[mathcam]

Fair enough. "Selfish" was probably a little harsh.

Secondly, Vote: Mathcam. With one vote already on Kleimer and none on anyone else yet, plus an FOS which could become a vote.

Well, that's

my

FOS, so I doubt it'll materialize into another kleimar vote. And with 8 alive, it's 5 to lynch, so it's not like I'm handing scum an easy target. I'm just trying to get the game moving.

Cam

[mathcam]

Ah, okay. It was almost a week ago, and not on this page, though, so I don't feel too bad about not remembering it.

And I'm by no means critizing you for not jumping on the bandwagon...nothing wrong with playing conservatively.

Cam

[mathcam]

Ok, well there are now a bunch of people that haven't posted in quite some time. Anyone not posting today is going to become a target for me. Just a warning.

Cam

[mathcam]

Vote: The_Machine

for his one post in 3 weeks.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm not sure why, but I seem to find just about everything kleimar posts scummy. I suppose with 8 alive (and thus 5 to lynch), a third lurker bandwagon vote is nothing too surprising...I don't know what it is. Hopefully, the Machine will get back to us soon.

cam

[mathcam]

Well, that's enough people with mild suspicions on kleimar for me. Plus, Machine posted, so...

Unvote: Machine, Vote: Kleimar

When's the deadline?

Cam

[mathcam]

Unvote: kleimar

Interesting thought on Aelyn. I'll wait until Aelyn confirms coincidence/non-coincidence before analyzing.

I'm tempted to vote for the machine.

Cam

[mathcam]

MD? You mean MO?

I wonder if no lynch isn't our best option. If there's one group of three (which there's not), it's probably our best idea just by numbers. If there's two groups left, there's a decent chance that one of them will kill one of the others off. At this point, I'm quite happy to trade a townie for a scum, especially if the scum we get is an SK, saving us an extra kill each night.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, and this is the whole basis for the motivation for no lynch...that with two groups randomly picking people to kill, there's a good chance that one of them will hit the other.

I didn't check your numbers, but if you think no lynch

might

be best with one group of 3 scum left, then you should definitely think it's best with a group of 2 and a group of 1 acting separately (I think).

Cam

[mathcam]

And it's not like the mafia-in-collusion theory really holds any water...what have they gained by doing this stunt if they're mafia? I think coincidence is by far the best explanation.

Cam

[mathcam]

The thing that bothers me is how screwed we far if we lynch a townie today. Then we're probably looking at 3 out of 7 players remaining being scum, going into night, where they get to do their killing.

On the other hand, I feel like we

should

have enough information to make an intelligent lynch by now, but I don't see who. I think I need to seriously go through the thread again.

Cam

[mathcam]

Aelyn's numbers were somewhat self-admittedly crap. They were estimates, and obviously inaccurate ones. I don't mean because of Aelyn's inability to do math, which I'm sure is fine, it's because no one can know the probabilities without knowing the rest of the roles left in the game. So my only comments that used that numbers were in terms of his beliefs..."If he believed those numbers, then blah blah blah..."

And yes, the hope is that the scum kill each other. There

were

two kills night one, and unless I'm misremembering (I don't really know anything about warhammer either), I feel like people have identified the two night-killers, so that Pooky (the vig) couldn't be the explanation for the extra kill. If that's the case, isn't it clear that there's two killing groups? What's the other explanation?

Cam

[mathcam]

We probably have a doc left, warp, so your "best tomorrow" numbers would probably actually include a doc-protect.

Cam

[mathcam]

Yeah, I was only thinking about cases C and D at that time, in which case scum killing scum isn't an option.

Cam

[mathcam]

And more importantly, known to the role-blocker. We should definitely investigate this further.

Cam

[mathcam]

Hey, I just noticed that in Dr. Seuss mafia, there's a discussion about Pooky being a vigilante, and he claims to have been a vig and made kills nights 1 and 2. So it's not infeasible that our mystery kill night one was from Pooky the vigilante.

Cam

[mathcam]

I agree with Max (can I call you Max? Mumum?). That's awfully *convient* for the scum that this supposed role-blocker can't implicate them in fashion. Hm.

Cam

[mathcam]

Alright, I really need to spend some time figuring out if there's any way kleimar

isn't

full of crap. Warpdragon does a good job of poking holes in kleimar's claim and subsequent posts, and I was mildly suspicious of kleimar

before

any of that happened.

Cam

[mathcam]

Okay, I've finally caught up with notes on everything.

First, I think Aelyn did an excellent analysis in post 209, making most of the points that I had amassed in my reread.

Second, kleimar's defense to this was mediocre, but still better than I expected. The only reason I'm not voting him is because we suspect this player to be in the game, and no one has counter-claimed. Plus, I feel like there's enough information out there that we should really be able to work this out.

I would really like to know how likely it is that:
1) The second kill night 1 was made by Pooky. Someone familiar with Warhammer (i.e. Aelyn), please comment on this.
2) How likely is it, from the theme point of view, that Ghazhkull is a mafia along with a couple of other scum.

If they are both likely, I think the best explanation for the situation is that Ghazhkull is in the mafia group and has the extra ability of role-blocking. This would make Ghazhkull both a scum and a role-blocker, would make the whole "How does the Ghazhkull work?" thing make more sense, etc.

Take it away, Aelyn (and anyone else).

Cam

[mathcam]

There are several reasons why Pooky would make a N1 kill but not a N2 kill, not least of which is "because he felt like it." It's also quite possible that he tried, and got role-blocked or had his target doc-protected.

I apologize for my ignorance, but based on my lack of Warhammer knowledge, I'm not sure what the answer to either of my above questions were.

Cam

[mathcam]

2) There's maybe a 5% chance that, if Ghazghkull is in the game, he's in the Mafia. 10% tops, to my mind.

What assumptions are being made here about the make-up of the scum group? Couldn't it be, say, a big bad guy from each of three different factions, united as one to defeat "the good guys"?

Cam

[mathcam]

I know I'm just picking you on here, but if you wouldn't be surprised, then why only 10% tops?

I'm only making this a key issue because this was the most likely explanation for the scenario that kleimar wasn't scum, so I'll need to do some serious thinking if you really think it unlikely.

Cam

[mathcam]

Okay, I'm sold. Just too many things don't quite fit. It's possible that kleimar's telling the truth, but in my mind, it just makes so much more sense if he's scum.

Vote: kleimar

Cam

[mathcam]

The...killer...is....

*slumps over dead*

Cam

[mathcam]

I thought it was really fun. And well done, Aelyn. As you can tell from my protects, you were one of my leading candidates for innocents.

Cam