Mini 843- The Fast and the Furious Mafia! (Over-Mod Error)

[JereIC]

Heya all, glad to be in the game. I'll start reading the thread over lunch and should be able to post something short tonight.

[JereIC]

Only got to skim half the thread, and don't have much in-depth analysis, but here's my quick thoughts:

Mordy, Faraday, Doombunny - seem to be actively scum hunting; leaning town on them

Starbuck, Shadowknight - lots of low-content posts, seem to be following people a bit

Kodamma - really jumpy at the beginning; doesn't seem to be scum-hunting at all; did anyone catch his wifom in post 48?

RossWilliams - seems to keep diverting suspicion from other people (I think he tries to do it in posts 42, 114)

Haven't gotten a good read of the other folks, will try to finish the thread tomorrow.

Unvote

for now.

[JereIC]

I apologize, I had all kinds of crazy happen yesterday, and wasn't able to finish reading the thread. Hopefully I can do that over lunch (for realz).

RossWilliams - seems to keep diverting suspicion from other people (I think he tries to do it in posts 42, 114)

Are you suggesting a kodamma(now ani)/Ross pairing? It seems hm, plausible i guess but really too early to really tell. Anyway, because it's day one we are not going to get anything good from scumpair hunting.

Also now that you bring it up, when was the last time we heard form Ross? I don't remember him being here for a while.

Actually, I think at least once he was trying to divert attention to Kodamma, so I don't suspect that they're a pair. Agree that scumpair hunting won't help on Day 1 (I learned that in a previous game), just struck me as odd behavior.

[JereIC]

Having finished the thread, I still like Faraday, and now I like SpyerX too. Still suspicious of Starbuck, but I'd like to see the rest of Faraday's case before I comment further.

Way more suspicious now of MordyS, partly for forgetting the no-townies thing.

More suspicious of Shadow Knight too, the giant Faraday post seems like he's trying to be active without contributing anything.

Tjoe Min Ja and Boxman still need to post more.

I'm a little uncertain of don_johnson.

FOS: Starbuck, MordyS, Shadow Knight

for now.

[JereIC]

Vote: MordyS

Yesterday he stuck with voting SB for pages until somebody called him on it, and today he did basically the same thing. I also don't buy his explanation that he missed DB's role reveal in the discussion about flavor, and his post 337 is logically flimsy.

[JereIC]

News flash: Mafia scum don't get bonus points for forcing lynches on specific players. My tunneling on Starbuck is a null tell at best.

I'm talking about bandwagoning here. You voted for her when she was an attractive bandwagon, and unvoted her when she wasn't. And you did it

twice

. What's bonus points got to do with anything?

Not actually what happened yesterday. I unvoted SB when her own post convinced me she wasn't scum. But good reading comprehension. :/

In that post, you said you unvoted after you had reread the thread, but you never cited to what Starbuck posted that made you lean towards her being poor town at that point.

Regarding post 367, it feels off. I actually agree with pretty much everything you post in that first paragraph. SK's huge post, DJ's me-too vote, Tjoe in general, all are suspicious. But throwing out so many suspicions at once feels like a diversion tactic. Then again, you immediately bring attention back to your tunneling on Starbuck, so that diversion theory isn't 100% clear.

The post gets weird again when you say SB is the closest we have to a confirm - how so? If I understand Neighbors correctly, at best she's got an equal chance as the rest of us of being scum. While her role is likely confirmed, as she hasn't been counterclaimed, we have no information as to her alignment.

You need to explain, "If she's scum and she finagled a good claim." Since there's

always

more than one Neighbor, and she hasn't been counterclaimed, it's likely her roleclaim is truthful, but she could still be scum.

At the end, your case against Boxman is weak (he says one Neighbor is usually scum, but "we can't assume that,").

[JereIC]

Actually, if one neighbor is "usually" scum, then we CAN assume that is likely. Probabilities are a good play any day. And I don't know if neighbors are usually scum or not. I'd love for Boxman to explain himself.

That's a good point. I'll have to take a second look at Boxman tonight.

Also, if you reread, you'll see that I was quoting SK who said she's as close a thing we have to a confirm. And I believe some other players (DJ included) have mirrored that argument. So there are a number of people who believe she's a confirm.

Whether or not SK and DJ said it before, you seem to agree with it, so you must have a reason why. What is that reason?

[JereIC]

I've never seen a "neighbor" before, so I was taking the general consensus into account. It seemed like people agreed that she was a confirmed townie. Now some disagreement is emerging. Are you of the opinion, Jere, that she isn't a confirmed townie?

I am. Going by the wiki, the only difference between masons and neighbors is that neighbors are not confirmed to be pro-town to each other. Indeed, according to the wiki, neighbors often end up having a mini-game trying to figure out if they can trust one another. So, I believe her neighbor claim, but I don't think that gives us info as to her alignment and therefore she isn't a confirmed townie.

[JereIC]

Hold up a skosh.

1.) Was tjoe's case manufactured in any method?
2.) Is tjoe saying the case itself was fabricated for reactions?

If the answer to either of those is yes, then it's a no brainer.

I'll deal with SK later.

Did you actually read TJ's post?

@SK :I'm not "lurker conscious" as you think. I did check a little bit all of you but it took many time if I wanna check it throughly

I'm sorry but I didn't live in front of computer. I get online 1-2 times per day, may be 1-2 hours

@starbuck :I live in different timezone. if there aren't people who happen to be online when I login....should I split my post into several post so that I can boost my post count?

in general...

this case was made to test everyone's reaction.

I wait for a day before I wanna start talking. and I believe some of you already start analizing

DJ and Boxman jump after me and suddenly they pull back after hearing starbuck's explanation.

for now I'm leaning starbuck as town

and

that would make DJ and boxman scummy for keep hopping on bandwagoning

boxman get extra credit for putting starbuck on L-1 and of course trying to reverse the tide

He manufactured the case by overstating Starbuck's activity during her V/LA, and now is trying to claim he was just testing us all along.

Tjoe, you're at L-1 with DJ's vote by my count. It's claiming time.

[JereIC]

You have *eleven* items to give out? Is that normal? I've never seen an inventor role in a mini with more than 4 items to give away. I'll make answering the question easier though.

@Tjoe- Are you given a description of each item you can give away including what benefit the recipient gets? Or is it just a list of items that you have to guess what it does?

I think he's saying he had 12 items, and gave one out last night. Is that right, Tjoe?

[JereIC]

EBWOP: Tjoe, if you did hand out something last night, is the person you gave it to still alive?

[JereIC]

Lets look at our list of peeps and play some parse:

Starbuck - Neighbor
Faraday - ? (Received Invention)
SpyreX - Awesome
Tjoe Min Ja - Inventor
don_johnson - ?
Boxman - ?
Shadow Knight - ?
MordyS - ?

What am I, chopped liver?

That said, I like your analysis. I don't get why you're giving Mordy the pass, though. Between the actual scum slips and his recent posts, he strikes me as the best choice today.

Not sure I get you connecting DJ to SK and Box, though. Can you expand on that?

[JereIC]

start talking JereiC....I need more reading from you

I would have posted last night saying I would review the thread and post my thoughts in the morning, but those kinds of posts seem to piss off Mordy and Doombunny's ghost.

My top suspects are Mordy (I think I've made that clear), Shadow Knight (not much content except the Faraday town read) and don_johnson (bandwagoning). Starbuck is my fourth - everyone else seems to think she's town even though the main point of her role is that she's unconfirmed (if I've missed something that confirms her as town, and not just as a neighbor, please point it out so I can stop reading her posts with suspicion).

I've been re-reading Boxman, and honestly his early posts strike me as inexperienced town more than scum putting up a wall of FOS, so I've changed my mind on that part of SpyreX's analysis. Faraday still strikes me as town too, although I don't put a lot of weight on the fact he confirmed you.

[JereIC]

(Not to mention, sorry for the doublepost, that killing your neighbor crippled one of your abilities. It would be a pretty ballsy scum move to cripple yourself just to make yourself look townie through the neighbor confirmation.)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but she's the one who said she and Doombunny had a tracker ability. She's also the one who said he didn't show up to their QuickTopic, thus wasting that ability. Why do you trust her to tell the truth about that?

RG didn't say a lot. Neither has Jere. I dont like it, but I like other things less.

That's one of my chronic failings, due both style and time. I like to make my posts short and to the point until I'm ready to lay out a case against someone, and I also don't have a lot of time to post.

[JereIC]

Claim time?

I'd say so. I also want him to explain a couple of things regarding his case against DJ. In particular, he's using DJ's lurking against him, but doesn't offer any evidence that we should disregard DJ's explanation of school. Also, what is the relevance of his big post about Faraday to DJ's voting for animorph? Why is DJ's "either/or" question to SpyreX scummy? If SpyreX's case against him is so flimsy, why isn't he voting SpyreX? And, if his case against DJ is so strong, why hasn't he posted a vote in bold so it would count? He's posted three times since his case, and has yet to do an EBWOP vote.

[JereIC]

Sorry to double post, but to anyone: what does "barn" mean?

[JereIC]

i think bodyguards die if the person they are protecting gets targeted.

That's how I interpreted it too (i.e a guy who jumps in front of whoever he's protecting to take the bullet).

[JereIC]

I'm really hesitant to cast my vote with Mordy and don_johnson, and if SK flips town, I'd say either of them make a great vig target tonight.

That said, I'm not buying SK's claim. It's not really the BG + Doc thing: I could actually see a setup like that, especially given it's a theme game. However, the last couple of posts make it pretty obvious he's coming up with this role as he posts. He's a bodyguard... who protected SpyreX last night because he didn't want to get lynched (but didn't mind getting killed)... who's really an undercover cop but can't investigate (or can he?)... who's apparently not answering questions anymore. Add my previous unanswered questions about his DJ case and the reasons SpyreX posted, and I've got enough to overcome the indigestion I'm going to feel from joining Mordy and DJ.

Unvote; Vote: Shadow Knight

[JereIC]

I wanted to take a look at who hammered because I know that we really don't hear much from JereIC, and he just popped in quick enough to hammer and disappear again. It kinda bothered me.

I didn't disappear, the day ended. Sure, I should post more, but you can't accuse me of lurking when the thread is locked.

[JereIC]

I handed a package to JereIC. I recieved no confirmation of success or failure. Now let me read.

I got it, and asked to open it (haven't gotten a response from AFC yet). That said, should we be announcing when we get inventions? KoC's role is pretty well confirmed, so all we're doing is telling the mafia who's a little stronger than at the beginning of the game. What's the benefit of invention claiming?

[JereIC]

I'm having another crappy day at work, so I'm not going to be able to read everything right now. That said, my gut says to stay away from a bandwagon started by MordyS, and not to reveal the invention I got.

[JereIC]

Ok, I've had a solid hour to read the Starbuck case, and I've got some questions.

SpyreX: What's the relevance of your fifth point (that both SK and SB went after DJ when they were in trouble)? It's doubtful they coordinated that defensive mechanism in QuickTopic - is it just that DJ's an easy target for them to try to divert suspicion to?

Mordy:
1. In post 662, you state that, "Starbuck did a good job of tempering her defense, making it impossible to tell whether she defended SK because she's scum or because she sincerely believed her defense." Was it scummy she came to his defense at all, or is that a null tell?
2. At the end of Day 1 (post 244), you said that you thought Starbuck was poor town rather than scummy. However, you started Day 2 saying you thought she was scum and that "Coming into Day Two with a classic scum-tell only helps matters." Besides the scum tell, what changed your mind from late Day 1 to early Day 2?
3. Back to post 662, you also stated that the points you made about SK's subtle defense of her were in addition to points you had made earlier. Does that include what you said in Day 1 before you said you thought she was a poor townie?
4. Did you find something in the thread you linked in 707 (and the post you quoted in 718) that influenced your decision to unvote in 719? If so, what was it, and why had your opinion changed by 723? If not, what did you mean when you said you were "flustered by the meta"?

[JereIC]

Now a question for you JereIC: Who do you think is scummy?

The order really hasn't changed from the last time I post my scum list - you, DJ, and Starbuck. Main change is I'm getting scummier vibes from Boxman now (I'd say for lurking, but pot, kettle, black, etc.). The fact that you and DJ were on SK's bandwagon isn't enough to make me get town reads off of you two. Your participation on the SK bandwagon felt half-hearted, and you tried to support his claim (e.g. asking if he had posted any breadcrumbs), while DJ is just doing whatever SpyreX says. That said:

Do you think Starbuck makes a good target for today?

I do. She is, in fact, very scummy and a really good lynch choice for today. The cases you and SpyreX have made against her have been really solid. The subtle way SK defended her is a great catch. She's been contradicting herself, distorting what other people have been saying to try to make them look scummier, and has only scum hunted when pressure has been put on her. There is honestly very little that appears weak in the case against her. My questions to you and SpyreX were the points I was uncertain about, and as you noted they weren't too complex (although you flubbed the answers - I feel like I've been tunneling on you already, though, so I'm going to ignore that for now).

Just glancing through Starbuck's posts in isolation, I've noticed that she hasn't posted a consistent list of scum suspects. She said she was "leaning" towards DJ and me (iso 107) but at other times she's implied suspicion of Boxman and DJ (iso 92), me (iso 93), SpyreX (iso 96), Mordy, DJ, and SpyreX (iso 105), and Boxman (iso 109). From that, it looks like she's casting suspicion throughout the player list now that she's under pressure (except for the mostly confirmable KoC) and doesn't have an actual list of scum suspects.

[JereIC]

JereIC gives me the itch (Hint, Vigs go here)

***

JereIC gives me the itch in that "I'm an SK on cruise control for cool" way.

You know what, Mr. Awesome? You want me dead, you make a case and cast a vote. Just because you've got DJ doing everything you say doesn't mean you can expect a vig to do the same.

KoC: Faraday and I had the option to open the package you gave us, which seems like an odd mechanic unless we've got some reason to reject it. Is there any indication some of your inventions are harmful to the recipient?

Starbuck: Why do you like KoC's SpyreX : Townie play :: Zwet : consistency analogy? Do you have any posts by SpyreX that are not good townie play? I also can't help but notice you've dropped your case against DJ as soon as KoC started posting seriously.

[JereIC]

Starbuck: Why do you like KoC's SpyreX : Townie play :: Zwet : consistency analogy? Do you have any posts by SpyreX that are not good townie play? I also can't help but notice you've dropped your case against DJ as soon as KoC started posting seriously.

How did I drop my case? I'm still voting for DJ.

Just voting isn't making a case. From post 752 to the time of my post, you made only one comment regarding DJ, and that was a relatively non-aggressive point about Vin being short for Vincent. But KoC has made lots of posts about DJ, and you seem to have been coasting while he has (he's also been taking some of the pressure that was directed at you).

I like the analogy because I have suffered through many games with zwet, and I understand the analogy.

I too have experienced the joy and wonder of playing with Zwet. I was more interested in how it applied to SpyreX, though.

The second thing tho is that my case on you is neither that you lurk too much or that you flip-flop. My primary case is found in my iso 75, and has been reinforced by the way you've reacted to the threat of lynching (which I haven't drawn up in an argument, but mostly I've experienced as a gut feeling). I criticized you earlier for lurking (around Day One, I think?), and honestly, just like then, I don't really care about excuses for lurking. The fact is, tho, that you've stopped doing it, so it's a dead issue for me. And, unless I'm forgetting something, I don't think I've attacked you for flip-flopping. So trying to defend yourself against those charges as tho that somehow excuses my more substantial case is going to be ineffective. Even if you prove to me that you've never flip-flopped or lurked, it doesn't get rid of my case. (And it's the kind of thing that sounds scummy to me.)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but one of the substantial points against her is that SK was subtly defending her. Are you expecting her to rebut that argument, considering it's something she didn't write?

sucks for you if i'm a vig.

I imagine it would suck.

[JereIC]

I reposted my case because Jere said he never saw it and said that I was just voting you with no reasoning behind it.

What the hell are you talking about? I saw all the posts you linked to in 803, and I saw you vote for DJ. I'm talking about your sudden drop in posts about DJ from the time KoC took up the DJ bandwagon to when I pointed it out. Don't accuse me of ignoring your posts, I've read them all through and I think the pattern is suspicious. It's up to you to explain it.

[JereIC]

JereIC is the only one not voting. Afraid to hammer me to see what I flip?

It'll only be good things for the town because once I flip, the rest of town will know who to go after.

I want you to answer my questions.

[JereIC]

Forget about it.

Vote: Starbuck

[JereIC]

JereIC, you can't ask someone questions then decide "ah fuck it, HAMMER TIME" 4 minutes later. Baaaad JereIC.

You mean the questions I asked on Wednesday? I'm pretty sure that's more than 4 minutes.

[JereIC]

So, should I start the claiming?

[JereIC]

I'm a vigilante. I killed Boxman.

[JereIC]

Now, see, funny thing with it being day 4 and you claiming one action.

I was waiting to see if DJ claimed watcher to test his claim, but if you want: Night 2 I tried to kill Faraday. I didn't take any action Night 1.

[JereIC]

i may or may not have used my ability.

vote: jereic

cut and dry here. an sk, mafia, survivor, AND vig?

So, you didn't comment on this when you posted a few minutes after I claimed, but two hours later you don't believe it?

It was at no point implied Faraday was a bulletproof Survivor. A survivor by definition is someone with no special powers, who simply needs to outlast certain players - in this case, the SK. DJ, if you protected Faraday N2, claim it - though since you're voting JereIC, I assume you didn't. Otherwise, it is impossible for JereIC to have vigged Faraday N2, because Faraday would be dead.

Your invention to me was a bulletproof vest (which was used up last night, fyi) - I'm guessing Faraday got one too when you gave him a package, and my kill attempt was foiled by it.

Maybe if it were a one-time vig shot, but he's claimed he at least tried to kill people twice. So you're saying I'm a one-shot commuter, and DJ is claiming a one-shot doctor, Doombunny + Starbuck can track but it takes TWO of them for one power, and another townie has a VIG power? That seems way out of proportion.

We've also got an inventor handing out bulletproof vests and (apparently) a night-kill immune townie. That's two people who can make themselves immune to night kills (allegedly you once and SpyreX all the time), two people who can make other night-kill immune for one night (animorph and KoC), and a one-shot doc. I think town's got a lot of defensive power, even if you two individually don't.

Why Faraday? First, SK's massive post giving Faraday a town read was so weird I thought there had to be something going on. Then, during Day 2 (especially during the SK lynch), he was relatively inactive, while during Day 1 he was very active and did lots of scum hunting. I thought this was an odd change of character, and indicated that he was maybe partnered with SK.

Why Boxman? I've found lurkers are usually docs, anti-town, or me. Boxman was lurking, and I couldn't imagine there being two docs, so I decided to run the risk of killing him tonight. Also, MordyS, honestly your defense of him was incredibly lame.

[JereIC]

Ah, you're kidding me, after all that time I put into my post?

Well, GG town.

[JereIC]

sweet. a town vig claim will always have trouble floating when i'm alive.

Funny thing is, there actually was a vig - RossWilliams was a vigilante, and having his role kept secret from the town was one of the game mechanics. I'm guessing he was one-shot or something, though.

And I was telling the truth about Faraday and Boxman, only the motivations were different.

[JereIC]

Also, I'm curious - did the mafia target me to kill twice? I had a 1-shot bulletproof...

No, we/I only attacked you night 3. Not sure what happened to your bulletproof...