Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[mathcam]

I deny Elvis's accusation.

Am I close?

scumteam=sensfan, mathcam, macavitylock

Confirm or deny?

Confirm.

Confirm.

Elvis seems to know a lot about the scum. Only scum would know that much.

Vote: Elvis.

Cam

[mathcam]

The boxman wagon does not look random to me. It looks to be based on a weak scumtell. I don't know how others see boxman's post 31, but to me it's boxman posting without content, posting without trying to advance the game or scum hunt, and possibly the worst sin of all -- making my sensfan bandwagon look silly!

I'm pretty happy with just "a weak scumtell" for a first-couple-of-pages bandwagon. And as someone else pointed out, you seem to give pretty good reasons to support the wagon anyway. I think I'm missing your point here -- who was arguing that it was entirely random? If Sens weren't around as a second option, would you be for or against the wagon?

The only problem I have with sensfan voting boxman is that it makes the rival bandwagon as big as his own, which switched momentum to someone else.

I'm confused as to why you would have a problem with this. This seems like a pretty reasonable thing for Sens to do.

Well, I know why he doesn't like you, that's obvious. I actually meant to ask seol why he is connecting you to me. I can see him connecting you to boxman since you poo-pooed his boxman wagon. But why you and me are together, or why boxman and me are together, not sure why.

Because you also poo-pooed the boxman wagon?

Happy with my elvis vote.

Cam

Vote Count Four - Unchanged

Boxman:

3 (SensFan, Seol, StrangerCoug)

Sens Fan:

3 (Konowa, elvis_knits, Netopalis)

Parhelic

: 2 (MacavityLock, Iecerint)

elvis_knits:

1 (mathcam)

Seol:

1 (Percy)

Netopalis:

1 (Boxman)

Not Voting:

(Parhelic)

Deadline:

Friday November 27th, 12:00 PM EST

[mathcam]

I do think people are over-reacting a bit to the "discussing the setup" idea. Sure things can go wrong, but things can go right as well -- e.g., if the game mechanics are confusing enough that it's worth the risk of slipping town information the mafia (which can be minimized) in order to get a better sense of what the optimal use of roles is. That said, I don't think is one of those games.

I love how you call a scumtell weak and then make two points against him supporting the tell.

I thought this is at first, too -- Though I'd like to hear what elvis has to say about this, I think this is a misinterpretation. I think she's emphasizing that it's not a

random

wagon

because

there's a scumtell that's prompting it (even if that scumtell is pretty weak).

Cam

[mathcam]

As it is, he ignored me, so I guess it wasn't very effective.

Sorry. I was indeed cofirming (jokingly, ha ha) that I was scum and responding with a joke-ish first vote. I figured it was made clear by subsequent comments, so didn't bother responding.

I correctly interpreted elvis_knits as not believing that the Boxman wagon was random. I'm attacking her for supporting the attack for a scumtell she says is weak, which made little sense to me.

Unless you were confused by her "weak," which she has now clarified, I don't think this makes sense. A weak scumtell is better than no scumtell, and on day one, I'm pretty excited to even get a weak scumtell.

Unvote: Elvs, Vote: Boxman.

So you believe that everyone has a responsibility to explain their entire thought process on demand? I guess that's something we disagree on, then.

I don't want to speak for elvis (maybe that

is

what she meant), but it's a bit of a jump from expecting an explanation for an early day one vote when the game is heavily dependent on getting initial reads on all players from their posts, to expecting an entire thought process on demand any time and every time it's asked for. The former seems eminently reasonable, the latter not so much. But regardless, this discussion might not be the best use of thread space.

Cam

[mathcam]

Only that scum would definitely want the rival bandwagon to gain momentum and town might not, depending if they thought boxman was scummy or not. It just seemed like senfan jumped on the chance to vote boxman.

Well, the default argument again that would be to say that a townie Sens would know that he was a townie, but not know that boxman was a townie (even if he suspected he was), so Sens would logically have to choose boxman's wagon as superior to his own.

icerint: Maybe instead of going into auto-question mode (seems a little defensive to me), maybe you could elucidate us as to where exactly you

do

stand on the boxwagon.

Cam

[mathcam]

Cam, you have implied that it is town-to-null to quickly vote the other wagon if you are one of two wagons. This differs from what I understand to be common knowledge. If necessary, could you clarify your perspective on this issue?

I hate to wade too deeply into very general waters here, but in short, I think that self-preservation is a null (not town-to-null) tell. The reasoning behind this is the "default argument" from my previous post -- and it is "default" in precisely the sense that I would use it until some more compelling argument contradicted it. In fact, typically much more intriguing is the case in which a bandwagonnee

doesn't

jump on an up-and-coming alternative bandwagon.

In this particular case, I don't think that either player was under enough pressure to even suspect Sens' vote was made out of self-preservation, but even if it was and he clearly acknowledge it, I would probably consider it a null-tell and a reasonable play.

Cam

[mathcam]

I think you're less likely to forget about a game as scum than as town.

Unvote: Boxman.

Vote: SensFan.

Cam

[mathcam]

While I'm not about to call Boxman a liar, since I've also forgotten about games that didn't make it to my WT, I think its a stretch at best to assume he's telling the truth to the point that you take his excuse as a towntell and unvote him, cam.

It's not like I'm instantly believing that he's telling the truth and am writing down Boxman=Town in my notes. I think it's

plausible

that he's telling the truth, though, enough so that it overrides the not-particularly-strong argument against him. Just like a weak scum-tell is enough to get me all stirred up on day one, a weak probabilistic town-tell is enough to get me to look somewhere else.

Anything in particular you want me to address, re: that vote on me?

Nope, not in particular.

Cam

[mathcam]

Agree with the last two posts.

Unvote: Sens, Vote: Boxman.

I have to admit my eyes are glazing over a little at Sens/Neto. Basic feeling is that Neto's getting himself caught in some mild contradictions, but mostly because his words are being overanalyzed. elvis' point about Neto not adjusting his Boxstance is a good one.

Cam

[mathcam]

Neto's eventual vote on Boxman will prove interesting if Boxman turns up scum.

It seems conceivable to me that boxman saw my post that town is more likely to forget about the game and is trying to use that to his advantage by "forgetting" again.

Let's lynch.

Cam

[mathcam]

[Neto] show that he was paying way more attention to Boxman than I'd expect.

Excellent point. His comment about Box's sig struck me as surprisingly attentive, but I hadn't equated it to scumminess.

Am I the only person reading this as Net going with the flow?

I'm inclined to think that you would take anything Neto said and find it scummy. Not that you don't have any valid points, but I think it's unlikely that

everything

Neto says is scummy, even if he is. Once I find myself thinking that way about someone's posts, I usually think it's time to start being conscious of my own confirmation bias.

Cam

[mathcam]

In all honesty, don't. If you try to look Town, it will come off as fake, because you are (in a sense) faking it.

Oh, and this.

[mathcam]

I am not sure which of Neto or Box to vote/lynch first.

Voting Box will end the day, and voting Neto won't?

Seriously, though, this game would be greatly benefit from an injection of mod-confirmed information. I'm actually pretty okay with either Box or Neto -- let's just get a lynch done, so that when I have to make my inevitable re-read of day 1, I can do so with something in particular to look out for.

Cam

[mathcam]

I'm not. In the words of Dr. elbirroH: Nail, meet Hammer.

Unvote: Boxman, Vote: Neto.

Cam