Mini 878: Nouns Mafia - Da game is ovah!

[SpyreX]

Whats up all.

I'll be catching up in the nearest of futures.

[SpyreX]

So, first readthrough (you get FULL reasons later):

Vote: Konowa

Yea, I'm calling out the whole "voting for Net for NOT voting for Boxman" as an inspired scum maneuver. I approve. Yet, busted.

Then jumping out day two on the popular suspects. Swish.

There's another reason for this that I'm trying to figure out:

SensFan, who was Marshall Bruce Mathers, AKA Eminem, AKA Slim Shady, AKA Marshall Mathers, Town Bomb, filled with tiny holes whereupon he exploded Night 1.
Hoopla, who was The Candlestick from Clue, Mafia Redirector, slapped out of his rhinestone shirt and X-busted Night 1.
mathcam, who was a Marimba, Vanilla Townie, on fire Night 1.

By the nature of having a bomb in the game it is pretty apparent that the mafia have to select someone to perform the kill.

In that case, WHY would you send Hoopla? A redirector, one would think, would be better served redirecting. And, that kind of eliminates some kind of mafia-mafia redirecting (WHY would you do that anyways.). So, I'm operating under the premise that Hoopla performed the kill.

Which opens up a bag of bizarro. There's something in this, but I can't pin down what it is - except for the fact that I'd put money on there being another fairly strong scum PR if sending the driver out makes sense.

[SpyreX]

I need to do another read for deeper, but offhand I'm not enthused with SC thus far - especially since this whole slapfight seems ridiculous and he's voting for super town TM at the mo'.

I REALLY need to get my gumption and do a wagon analysis. That's what got me so itchy about Konowa and I bet there's a whole bevy of information to get from it.

[SpyreX]

.....

Well, huh. I guess that's awesome.

Good thing I didn't vote for SC then.

[SpyreX]

Not so much. Its bedtime now but yea I sure didn't expect BAM DOUBLEVOTE HOO

[SpyreX]

Yea, I'll check that out.

Unvote, Vote: Icerint

This isn't a scum vote, btw. Just grabbed a name.

[SpyreX]

Thats what I'm here for!

I will hopefully have time today to take a real look at those day 1 wagons. Still pretty sold on Konowa though.

[SpyreX]

OK, fine.

Unvote, Vote: SpyreX

THERE. Sheesh people with their votes everywhere.

[SpyreX]

And if I get mystery hammered well I think that'd be just fine since the chances of that happening at this stage not being scum fueled would be just gravy.

Vote Count 6

StrangerCoug:

3 (elvis_knits, Iecerint, MacavityLock)

SpyreX:

2 (SpyreX)

Iecerint:

2 (Percy, Konowa)

elvis_knits:

1 StrangerCoug)

SpyreX:

1 (Seol)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[SpyreX]

Before I start MAGIC ANALYSIS:

@E_K:

Was the business with Nets claim not looking right cleared up by the night kills?

[SpyreX]

There's gonna be a LOT of words here, be forwarned:

Boxman

: 3 (

SensFan

, Seol, StrangerCoug)
Sens Fan: 3 (Konowa, elvis_knits,

Netopalis

)
Parhelic: 2 (MacavityLock, Iecerint)
elvis_knits: 1 (

mathcam

)
Seol: 1 (Percy)
Netopalis: 1 (

Boxman

)

Not Voting: (Parhelic)

Boxman

: 5 (Konowa,

Netopalis

,

mathcam

, elvis_knits, Seol)

Netopalis

: 4 (StrangerCoug,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Not Voting: (big_kahunia, MacavityLock, Percy)

Boxman

: 6 (StrangerCoug, Konowa,

Netopalis

,

mathcam

, elvis_knits, Seol)

Netopalis

: 4 (MacavityLock,

SensFan

, Iecerint, Boxman)
Iecerint: 1 (Percy)

Not Voting: (big_kahunia)

Netopalis

: 7 (

mathcam

, elvis_knits, Seol, MacavityLock,

SensFan

, Iecerint,

Boxman

)

Boxman

: 3 (StrangerCoug, Konowa,

Netopalis

)
Iecerint: 1 (Percy)

Not Voting: (big_kahunia)

-----

So, lets look at this and make a few general conjectures.

Looking at the competing wagons and the fact we've had a busy night realistically we're looking at three (although one would be scary) scenarios:

8/3/1 - SK
9/3/1 - Vig
8/4 or 8/2/2 -

So, that said, With them being so close AND it shifting to town off scum in this list:

E_K, Seol, MacavityLock, Icerint

There is a scum. However, lets do another little parse based on VC 3 versus 4:

Icerint & MacavityLock were stuck on Net

before

the jump. Which means of the scum I'm looking for I'll take them out of the equation.

Leaving: Seol and E_K.

Which, again, raises some eyes. Both of them contributed to the lynch in odd ways (e_k's statement that Net's claim didn't look right AND Seol's BWCS business).

Of those two (and as a function of greater play) one stands out as scum motivated versus town motivated:

Unvote, Vote: Seol

BUT I AM NOT DONE!

Lets look at the other end of this little pickle: the scum that stayed off that wagon:

SC, Konowa, Percy

SC jumped out on the early Box train. Then jumped to Net, THEN, jumped back to Box and stuck there.

Konowa stayed out of the fracas on the bizarro Sens wagon until Box took the lead and then stuck there.

Percy tossed out a throwaway vote, then didn't vote, then another throwaway vote at the end.

So, once again, the real question is: would scum stick on their PR like glue or not?

Again, I'm banking on not. For one early good reason:

I think Boxman may be scum, but that the case on Netopalis is pretty dead unless Boxman is scum.

and one other:

Iecerint - scum, more votes guys kthx
big_kahunia - scummy, third party makes sense
ML, Konowa, SC - IGMEOY
Seol, elvis - solid town

-----

So, yea, Seol and Percy from that review.

AND NOW PREVIEW EDIT:

Well, in a way, yes. Atleast, my problem with it is now understood. But I don't know exactly what everyone else thought or if it's cleared up for them. I don't think we ever discussed why we didn't like Net's claim. Thinking that it would give scum a better idea how to fake claim effectively if we discussed, or also maybe discern who was vanilla vs. power by how people were talking.

I am almost to the point where I want to discuss this and lay it out on the table. I am very much in favor of full disclosure unless I think there's something we think we will gain from keeping secrets.

I dunno. Perhaps we should discuss more fully after SC claims (assuming it gets that far).

Also, important to remember one of the reasons for lynching Net was he claimed vanilla. So he was either vanilla or scum, and therefore even if we were wrong, the bleeding wouldn't be so bad. Seol taught me a nifty phrase: BWCS (Best Worst Case Scenario).

See, thats the thing. Your statement oozed town - however, the reaction (or absence thereof) has some pretty nasty scum connotations (I think I've figured out the issue but).

As for the BWCS - it's just a fancy way of saying "Lynch vanilla claims, save PR's" which loses sight of scumminess and is a flag for "SCUM CLAIM PR'S PLOX"

So, yea, the addition of of the BWCS doesn't do a whole lot for me.

[SpyreX]

The thing is, and I DO get the benefit of replacementism:

Net was NOT that sketchy.

He was a fallguy.

And if the wagon shift from scum to town DIDNT involve a scum pre-hammer I would absolutely :headdesk: over it.

As for that claim being unsolicited? Really?

---

As for Percy, here's my issue with that first quote with what we now know:

"It looks like Boxman is going to be the lynch. Lets salvage what we can out of it by making a false tie to a town for a mislynch tomorrow."

Because, of course, the flipside to that "Lets say if Net is town then Box is town" wouldn't work and would have been instant death.

As for the other: look at who his two TOTALLY town reads are. Yea.

---

And say what you will but SC was fairly stuck on Box for most of it. A bus? Maybe. If so a beautiful one - but when the first line of Box hate was on fairly weak grounds it would have made more sense to shuck and move instead of condemning a PR.

[SpyreX]

Yea, the third scum was Boxman

I can't decide if that was a vig or SK shot, honestly.

If I was to lay down the LAW on a third it'd probably be Konowa at the mo'.

[SpyreX]

I'm not going to weep if SC goes down. However, I find it FAR more likely that Seol / Percy are scum.

SC as an SK, maaaybe. Probably town though.

[SpyreX]

I do not recall Neto's claim being solicited. My recollection is interpreting that he got tired of the game stagnating and decided to go ahead and claim. It was particularly irritating to me because I was trying to communicate with BK to see whether there was something there. Please let me know if I just missed where the solicitation happened.

As much as I love that you don't love Percy, I think you're reading too much D2 rhetoric into your evidence against Percy. His first post is basically the same (accurate) rhetoric that elvis-and-cohorts were espousing all day. I don't think it's fair to say that Percy specifically is scummy for that unless you establish why the other players who had the same view were not scummy. I also don't see any conflict in someone thinking that Seol and EK were both town D1. Seol's anti-elvis business only became apparent within the last two pages or so. On the other hand, Seol's role in starting the Neto wagon does seem a little at-odds with also thinking elvis town.

I agree with you that SC's being on BM most of D1 is a net chip in his favor. That said, I'm inclined to believe that he thought it would be a quick early-game wagon based on a very weak scumtell and go away just as quickly. Unfortunately, BM's subsequent disappearance prevented him from easily leaving the wagon. He ultimately tried leaving it to join Neto's, but he fumbled on the required logic, and returned to BM's.

A wagon, by nature, is a solicitation of a claim when it is at the L-2 or L-1 mark (note: what would have happened had he opted NOT to claim).

Putting Seol where he was as a function of setting a buddy up with a counterpart makes sense to me as a scum move ESPECIALLY when they couldn't have expected a dead Boxman that night.

As for SC being town - it's a function of jumping all over box and holding to it. That and the case is fairly blah.

The only thing that REALLY concerns me is the callout on the Stethescope not seeming a VT claim (which I get) but holding to the Box lynch - that's balls of steel if he's Box's scumpartner and that wagon shifts back.

[SpyreX]

No - I'm PRETTY sure I know what your problem is with it. SC's is a lot more "weird".

(FTR if I had replaced in before that lynch I would have fought tooth and nail to get it shifted off Net)

Another Percy tidbit:

If he believed that if Box was scum then Net is scum... where do you think, once the wagons were ACTUALLY up his vote would have been?

[SpyreX]

If you're vanilla and going up the ropes the claim makes sense.

I'm saying Percy-scum put Seol-scum and E_K-supertown in the "town" category.

In this framework the Stethescope != VT kind of makes sense (but really shouldn't be a weight either way) but bringing that up and staning firm on the box is ehhh

[SpyreX]

I'm all for wringing my hands at a townie lynch when I think it'll give me some cred. (based on SC being town, o course).

[SpyreX]

A pox on meta.

[SpyreX]

Why?

1.) A scum lynch getting moved to a town lynch doesn't accidentally happen. There is direct scum involvement.

2.) See 1, additionally I'm betting on the JUMP being scum pushing one to the other.

BWCS doesn't say "lynch vanilla claims", it says "vanilla claims are not a reason not to lynch". Claims aren't a defence unless they provide a new perspective on your actions; sometimes claims provide a reason not to lynch. It's most useful in comparative situations: when you have two candidates who appear equally scummy, consider not just the relative upsides of lynching (EV on scum), but also the relative downsides. It doesn't just apply to claims, either - I'd rather lynch an inactive player than an active one, all other things being equal, as an inactive townie is less of a loss to the town than an active townie.

And the fact Box wasn't even put in a position to weigh the two? BWCS sure would have lost its gumption if Box also claimed vanilla.

Ultimately, town is town. An inactive town is still of more benefit than an active scum.

And, of course, in this case the WCS was not lynching scum and lynching town instead.

Sorry, what's the scum motivation? Or are you simply assuming one of us is town, the other scum?

"This claim doesn't match mine" - fairly town in its approach.
"Well, the WORST CASE is that he's vanilla" - not so town.

So you think Iecerint and MacavityLock are clear of being Mafia? Why do you think there is one (and only one) scum that stayed off the wagon?

9/4 doesn't make sense balance wise and with a non-factional flip I'm assuming a single mafia which means three and, with Box dead and the assumation that the whole team isn't gonna choo-choo then the chances are slimmer.

I thought you thought the scum were likely to have other power; that Box's being vigged indicated the scum didn't consider him particularly valuable?

Not sure what this has to do with anything but yes I'm assuming another PR if not two.

Yea, lets do this.

[SpyreX]

mm, yea

Then its 8/3/1 for sho

Which changes nothing in the long run.

[SpyreX]

So, were I to flip town, you would then argue that elvis is therefore scum?

If you say that's true, that's the classic false dilemma: present two options as a binary choice, usually in an attempt to set up back-to-back bad lynches.

If you say it isn't true, then you're conceding that a scum lynch getting moved town lynch can happen accidentally (ie, without scum input), and the chain of reasoning fails.

If you say you think that won't happen, because you think I'm scum, that's a circular argument.

If you were to flip town (which more and more I'm thinking you're not) then everything would have to be re-evaulated. Yes, based on this e-k would look WORSE but everything about her play suggests town soo no, it wouldn't be a binary.

If it makes you and everyone feel better before you get lynched lets reword this:

The probability of that lynch swing being done by scum is high - which would land it square on e-k and seol. Due to e-k's town play and seol's overall play seol would be the lynch choice.

----

BWCS doesn't say "lynch vanilla claims"

, it says "vanilla claims are not a reason not to lynch". Claims aren't a defence unless they provide a new perspective on your actions; sometimes claims provide a reason not to lynch.

It's most useful in comparative situations:

when you have two candidates who appear equally scummy, consider not just the relative upsides of lynching (EV on scum), but also the relative downsides.

The jump was Net's claim.

That's what pushed the wagon over the edge.

Why would Box also have claimed vanilla?

After one vanilla claim we lynch, we don't press for another claim.

That's why prematurely claiming is such a bad idea. One of the worse case scenarios avoided is getting additional claims out there.

I'm not even gonna say much about this. Just bold it and let it be there too look at.

The former is much more dangerous than the latter. Neither is a good basis for lynch by itself on day 1.

The former is more dangerous FOR THE PERSON SAYING IT.
The latter is an excuse for a mislynch.

Which is internally inconsistent with the idea that Boxman was not "their PR" (implying special value).

Their PR implies that boxman was a PR that was aligned with the scum. Hence, "their" PR.

However, this begs a much more important question:

You think I'm scum? That sure reads like one of those delicious little questions designed to get someone to jump on and go "GASP YOU HAVE CAUGHT HIM IN THE MASTERSTROKE" and thus create a wagon.

But, in all those words I don't see anything that approaches it.

Yea, once, again. Down with this lynch. Other posts dealt with incoming.

[SpyreX]

@Percy:

The minute there is two competing wagons and you opt to plant a vote on nothing its a throwaway vote. Further, your comment that "boxman was scummy" without committing means little.

And really:

As I said before, I thought Boxman was scummy, but Iecerint was worse.

I was also opposed to lynching Neto, because the argument that he was scum made no sense if Boxman was town.

I don't think I did any work whatsoever in tying those two players together,

and my response to SC - that Boxman dying last night saved us a lot of bother today - is relevant here. You're spinning my scumminess pretty hard, and it shows.

Bold and italics have a disagreement.

----

@Ice:

I'm making a statement about yesterdays "Well its JUST a vanilla" and "Lynching inactive is better than lynching active" that is missing a key variable - that the goal is lynching scum. I'm not down with excusing it as anything but what it is.

[SpyreX]

Its scummy because, again, its justification for the mislynch yesterday (as it being a tangential argument trying to make THAT BCWS seem better in retrospect)

Vote Count 8

StrangerCoug:

3 (elvis_knits, Iecerint, MacavityLock)

Seol:

2 (SpyreX)

Iecerint:

2 (Percy, Konowa)

elvis_knits:

1 StrangerCoug)

SpyreX:

1 (Seol)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[SpyreX]

Do you want me to answer this question, or is this just more smear?

More smear . See, funny thing is, I'm not going to try to convince you that you are scum. I'm illustrating the fact to everyone else.

They actually don't...?

Also, it's come up more than once - I hate this argument that's being bandied around which goes something like this:
"The big wagon for the day was Boxman and Neto. Since Percy didn't vote for either of these people, he was actively trying to stay uninvolved and avoid notice; votes on anyone other than these two are throwaway votes to be ignored, cases and pressure on anyone other than these two is to be deplored. Therefore he's scum".
It's craplogic like crazy. I vote for whoever I think is scum, and SpyreX's continued insistence that my Iecerint vote was worthless is utterly bizarre.

Nah, of course there isn't any dissonance between "Neto makes no sense as scum if Boxman is town" and "I did no work in tying those two players together."

My bad.

As for that amazing display of paraphrasing, lets try it again:

"The big wagons of the day were Boxman, a scum, and Neto, a town. Since Percy gave opinions on said wagons and opted not to vote for either of them instead

leaving his vote on a wagon that wouldn't go anywhere

it looks very, very scummy."

The case on Ice was not worthless. Having your vote there at the end of the day was. Its not like if you had opted to lay down the law on the actual wagons everyone would have forgot you thought Ice was suspicious.

As for the case, if you're going to spout off buzzwords at me:

What do you need explained? What doesn't constitute analysis?

Or, are you in fact disagreeing with the conclusions I drew?

----

Rebolded for a different emphasis. You can use BWCS to compare two claims (eg lynching claimed vanilla v claimed cop), or you can use it to compare lynching vanilla with pushing another player to claim, which could be vanilla or PR - both of which, in the worst case (ie when that player is town), would be worse than the worst case of lynching your claimed vanilla.

If a wagon progresses to the point where a player claims, that claim is either a reason not to lynch, or the player gets lynched. That's why we don't assume Box would claim.

The jump wasn't what Neto claimed, it was that he claimed.

In what world is this an amazingly premature claim?

Although, you did get me to go back and look at it in detail:

Bah @ unsolicited claim. Day 1 claims are bad (except when they're good). But now it's out there, we have a nice case of BWCS.

If a replacement is coming for Boxman, I'm happier with a Neto lynch than a Boxman one, especially given the claim. unvote, vote: Netopalis.

EBWOP: As tempting as it may be to discuss the particulars and plausibility of Neto's claim, I would strongly urge against it. We almost certainly won't learn anything useful from it, but scum may well.

12 posts. 12 posts from the claim to hammer. And, yea, despite my good vibes on Elvis if its not you I'd be pretty apt to look that way if I'm wrong come tomorrow.

The former is more dangerous FOR THE TOWN, see my 406 for why. The latter is a defensive strategy which provides a level of loss mitigation.

The counter-argument you are presenting is "Ohh noes the scum will fakeclaim."

Which they will regardless.

Elvis by saying there is something wrong with that claim (and his subsequent flipping town) puts a giant X on her head.

show inconsistency in your thinking. I don't get how you can go from your first real contribution to the game being "the Mafia probably have more power" to "how would Boxman's particular value over other Mafia affect their thought process?". That's what I read from each quote, and I'm not sure what the point of that second quote is at all unless it's referring to his PR status.

Again, I'm really not sure what this has to do with anything but I'll bite.

You're trying to say there is a disconnect between those two statements. There isn't.

I'm willing to bet the scum have an additionally strong PR due to the fact Box was the one killed by the bomb. Furthermore, I find it unlikely that scum would stick on their PR like glue when an alternative was presented.

Unless this is a semantic issue because I said their PR and not "one of their PR's" in which case swish.

@Ek:

BWCS is not

inherently

scummy. However, when it is a major justification (which, look at the rapidity of the lynch versus the claim)

that

is the issue.

[SpyreX]

That said I am curious about your issue and I want that pinned down before we do anything SILLY today.

[SpyreX]

We all feel better AFTER we share.

(I'm just curious if I'm right about what I thought it was)

[SpyreX]

If its what I think it is you should be able to.

[SpyreX]

I do tend to get bogged down in perhiphery.

At heart it boils down to:

1.) I think that one of the late wagon shifts was scum.
2.) Of the two, ek and seol, I am far more convinced it is Seol due to their rationales for it.

[SpyreX]

... well, I was right and wrong.

My assumption was that you are a named role versus an object role and thus it didn't add up.

Which is apparently right.

However, I didn't think it was a semantical issue of how it was worded.

Which is where I was wrong...

If you're playing me you're doing a damn good job of it. I can't even begin to parse laying this out like that as scum.

[SpyreX]

And I'll always hold you <3.

I may have to lynch you, but that doesn't change the love.

[SpyreX]

Spyrex, you've said you think the mafia might have another power role. I'm thinking you're not just speculating on a GF. I'm wondering if it's like a mafia doc since we do seem to have a lot of killing roles up in here. SC was saying this game can't be balanced. What mafia pr's do you think we might have?

If we're going to wax hypothetical I thought about doc some but that REALLY doesn't make sense (assuming three scum) unless: a.) the doc can protect himself or b.) they have three power roles in which case :headdesk:.

Because, otherwise, the doc sure as hell should have been on Box.

Other major PR's (due to SECRET INFORMATION) don't make sense directly. I'm personally ruling out a rolecop (although there could be a namecop maaybe).

So, I'm thinking something like a framer, watcher or tracker. That'd be my take.

Vote Count Nein

StrangerCoug:

3 (Konowa, Iecerint, MacavityLock)

Seol:

3 (elvis_knits, SpyreX)

SpyreX:

2 (Percy, Seol)

elvis_knits:

1 (StrangerCoug)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[SpyreX]

K,

@SC and EK:

Real concise like, I'd love to see simple bulleted lists of this festering wound that is you two going back and forth at each other.

[SpyreX]

Its obvious you've looked at this page.

I don't want defense, I just want these cases all nice and laid out proper like. No wall of quotes, just clear and clean.

[SpyreX]

THANK YOU.

Ok, now follow me, both of you.

Look at these cases closely. See how much of it is feeding on the interaction BETWEEN you two and not a function of the game as a whole.

Give hugs, high 5 and then lynch Seol.

[SpyreX]

OK, let me explain this nice and slow to you.
Those on the wagon were arguing that Boxman and Neto were tied together - they were both scum. I was disputing this and saying that if those who said it thought the argument was strong enough, they would be voting to lynch Boxman first. The fact that people were trying to lynch Neto first was a product of (1) their alignments being linked and (2) attention being shifted off Boxman. I didn't like either of these things.

Me am glad. Words hard. Make head itch in bad way.

Using magic box me go back in way back machine:

I think elvis is almost certainly town.

I think Boxman may be scum, but that the case on Netopalis is pretty dead unless Boxman is scum.

I think Iecerint is big scum, Vote: Iecerint.
SensFan is looking quite suspicious, weak scumread.
I think Konowa is pretty town too.
mathcam is giving me weak scum vibes.
The others didn't jump out at me. Seol posted less, but my townread hasn't lessened.

Bold make me confuse. You am say "no, me am not make connections between alignment" yet there me see words that make belly rumble.

Bullshit.

When me hunt big dinosaur, me am need maaannyyy people to make dinosaur go dead. One person get eaten by dinosaur.

You am run out on own limb, not try kill dinosaur. Then say bullshit.

I don't need anything explained. I've already cited examples of your revisionism, your baseless theorising and presentation of facts without analysis.
A simple example is how you completely excuse MacavityLock and Iecerint from being scum, based on their place on the mislynching wagon.

Re-vision-ism? Too many letters makes head cry the salty waters. Me am sad.

Me am double excuse Ice, ML not playing which makes also sad.

I also have no idea why you're speculating about setup. A great example where talk like this lost the town the game was a game I played in a while back - Hammersmouth Is Under Attack!. We faced a similar problem - why would scum send PRs to do their killing? The answer was that the scum had an additional resource to manage which we weren't told about. It was great for the scum - they could carry out the kind of analysis you're doing now, and we ended up losing the whole game through bad assumptions and being fed misinformation by the scum.

This is a Theme Game. Not all mods who run them are bastard mods, but I'm yet to see a theme game that didn't have interesting, novel and completely unexpected mechanics. At best, this kind of talk is anti-town, as it leads to impressions and guesses that can colour our analysis later, and these guesses will almost certainly be wrong.

Even if you disagree with all of my analysis above, the point still stands: Why are we talking about this? How will this help us catch scum?

Some moons, in cave, Krog say fire and run around. Too many times Krog say fire and wake am up. So, when Krog catch fire, Krog burn.

Me tell nice story because many words make tired. Words boring. Burning good.

You burn nice.

[SpyreX]

Back to normalcy there's another interesting (or perhaps two) tidbits on the pair that are camped on me because I'm soooo scummy and soooo slow.

Now's not the time for me to do that expose'. Both are very obvious and I'm a little tsk, tsk that no one has mentioned it.

[SpyreX]

SpyreX, I would like to join others in saying that I don't understand why you're clearing me and Iec from the Neto-wagon. Does this still hold for you?

Under the assumation that there is a 3 man mafia, yea you're not my key suspects.

I'll let loose a dirty little secret though: I have no idea how to "look" specifically for an SK outside of just a few things (that I haven't seen) so that's not my focus.

Let me amend this. I understand why you cleared us, as you have explained that it's based on the fact we weren't part of the wagon switch post-claim. I don't really agree with it though. I am wondering if this still holds for you.

There are now other factors that lend to my analysis being right, but yea I'm holding to it. I'd be surprised to see anything but one scum on the Net and one scum off it. Further, with Box getting to L-1 and the power flip I'd be again surprised to see the one ON it not being a leaper.

[SpyreX]

Psh on meta.

Give me your take on: Seol, Ice, ML in a nice concise form.

[SpyreX]

SpyreX's attempt to narrow focus on the wagon continues to make me very suspicious. He started counting back from the hammer vote, and the first person who might be scum obviously is. I think the scummiest wagon jumpers are Iecerint and StrangerCoug, not Seol and elvis_knits. This is more WIFOM argumentation from SpyreX that tries to shift focus to where he wants it to be. I'd also love another caveman post; I find it hilarious that he thinks acting brainless constitutes an argument, let alone one in his favour. I'm excited to see what arguments he doesn't want to engage with.

See, that was a double-setup if you will. Since I did address all the "issues" you brought up but in doing it making fun of your calling me so slow I wanted to see what the response would be.

And, SURPRISE, it was exactly what I expected.

Yea, I'm totally down with that Icerint wagon now. I mean, just LOOK at all the jumping.

Unvote, Vote: Percy

Did I do that right? I mean, I am slow.

[SpyreX]

I think I've been pretty clear that I think Seol and Percy are the scum.

I'm still waiting for the "issues" I've missed.

I am fine with either lynch.

I'm a little sad that no one has even had a nibble on my issue with these votes and one of the major reasons I get to be so willy-nilly with these votes.

Percy called my vote an OMGUS which is truly beautiful.

Further, I set him up with the caveman post to see what he would address and he did exactly what I would have expected from scum.

Either or it don't matter to me.

[SpyreX]

Neither vote is, at heart, an OMGUS however the fact that he would declare my switch as such is telling.

I'll vote either, believe you me.

[SpyreX]

Keep on keepin' on.

I think I've been pretty clear that I think Seol and Percy are the scum.

I'm still waiting for the "issues" I've missed.

I am fine with either lynch.

Yea.

[SpyreX]

I gave you an explanation as to why I wasn't doing what you accused me of (linking), and you just ignored it without making any comment - you just quoted back to me what you originally had an issue with.

Yea, since, get this, it is linking them. You are saying two things there *gasp*:

If Boxman is scum, then Net is scum.
If Boxman is town, then Net is town.

Those are both linking statements. NOW, lets continue this little train:

Your argument that if there are two wagons and you're not on one of them implies you're scummy is bullshit - I wasn't sold on either case, so why would I vote for it? Oh, right, I need you to help kill a dinosaur Rolling Eyes. It was 12 days before deadline. Would I have voted one to avoid a NL at deadline? Yes. That was not the situation we were in. Why would you encourage people to jump on wagons that they don't believe in? All that does is make the wagon harder to analyse later. Your attack is contrived.

I am not saying "non committal to a wagon is bullshit". I am saying, fairly clearly "not committing to a wagon when you have previously stated that there is an alignment link is bullshit." Further I have also said "your comment on linking with how the wagons were going was under the guise of net getting killed, not flipping scum, thus hopefully taking heat off Box"

Now, maybe if

instead

you had said "both of these lynches are crap, we need to lynch Ice" and actually perused that instead of parking a vote, well.

I also specifically accused you of revisionism in the post where I voted for you, and you never addressed it. I think it's pretty obvious that you're switching your reads around to suit your attacks, rather than the other way around.

You did, in fact, accuse me of revisionism. Lets go ahead and look at that:

Now where has he established this "supertown" read on EK? I think this is buddying to EK and some heavy revisionism. More IIoA occurs in his post 506. This entire post is analysis-free, just some general baseless theorising and fact-stating.

Now, what in the hell am I being accused of revising? See, I'm not going to address a mystic buzz-word (although I do call you out for the buzzwording).

And finally, when I talk about setup, you accuse me of crying wolf - what does that have to do with setup discussion? I provided a good example of how getting bogged down in setup speculation can easily cost the uninformed town the game, and the scum can play that to their advantage. I'm glad it convinced you to stop talking about it, but you still didn't answer why you were talking about it in the first place.

YES SIR YOUR ANECTODAL EVIDENCE IN FACT TAUGHT ME THE ERROR OF ALL MY WAYS.

Or, in fact, the specific questions about my thought processes asked me were explained and that was done.

Thus my "crying wolf" when it was a very specific set of questions about what I thought about the process that were answered and then you lept in with "NOTHING TO SEE HERE NO SIR"

617 I just don't have the energy to deal with but the fact you are still holding to the idea that your statements had no linking of their alignments alone would be enough to lynch you.

Everything else is icing.

[SpyreX]

I have to agree with Percy's counter to MacavityLock here. "The case on Netopalis is pretty dead unless Boxman is scum", according to the way I interpreted it, is "If Boxman is town, then the case against Netopalis is void." The case on somebody being void does not necessarily mean that that person is town. It means only that the person isn't scummy for that.

Except the major issue is simply the fact he is saying that there is no inference present in the statement above.

Which there is.

[SpyreX]

Seol / Percy then Konowa.

Seol makes more sense logistically but every bit of Percy's interaction makes me think him higher probability.

I'm not not lynching one of them today.

[SpyreX]

The position on the wagon, o course.

[SpyreX]

Someday someone will explain to me why that was so premature and why that made it a-ok to jump. Someone.

[SpyreX]

That still doesn't add up.

If it was one vote and a fear-claim then SURE. However, it was pretty apparent that the general air of the town was flowing towards him being a lynch.

So he claimed.

Its not rocket science - and if you look at the events after that claim up to lynch and can tell me straight faced that looks like town behavior well, do it. I want it on record.

[SpyreX]

And the fact the rapidity allowed Box to not even have to claim (especially after SC's post on that page)?

I'm not lynching a vanilla because they are vanilla any more then I'd shy away from a PR claim.

And if you're making the argument that the claim was premature because it wasn't close to deadline... nothing to say about the rapidity of the lynch?

[SpyreX]

Its like bizarro world.

Boxman gets put to L-1 specifically for him to claim.

Doesn't. Instead, as the pressure was being put on Net he claims. Then is lynched for it.

You are saying this series of events is pro-town.

[SpyreX]

Thats a HUGE point of everything I've been saying, especially about Seol.

Box was at L-1 and this whole vanilla powerlynch hooo business was fueled by scum. It has to be.

[SpyreX]

I've already stated how I wasn't linking alignments. I'm not going over it again.

And I've already stated how no matter how you want to cut that you are. So, I'm fine with not going over it again.

How about you read my posts? That would be just awesome.

We've already proven I'm slow. Do we really have to go into my inability to read as well? I had to have this dictated to me by a dancing bear, afterall.

Show me what I've revised. With posts. And explanations.

As for the other: look at who his two TOTALLY town reads are. Yea.

I've been pretty clear about thinking you and Seol are scum together. So, with the minimal amount of actual interaction its more than a little telling that Seol is your A++ BFF totally town buddy.

But, of course, can't be THAT obvious and have him be the only one. So, what to do? Ohh, I know, pick someone who has actively been town!

What "process"?
Also, crying wolf still doesn't apply, whatever you originally meant. How does shutting down setup speculation (which is what I unapologetically did) equate with "crying wolf"?
Discussing setup in a theme game is usually a bad idea, as it leads to bad assumptions and mislynches. Setup discussion is for endgame.

Elvis asked me about my thought process regarding the mafia and power roles. I explained my thought process.

Then, you came in with some anecdotal evidence to say it was a BAD THING TM (note, I am not basing my lynch choices on that speculation nor was elvis - it was a question regarding my thought process).

When, of course, not a peep was mentioned when people started talking about SK's. Huh.

So, yea, you're crying wolf. Or, a better anaology would be chicken-littleing. The sky isn't falling.

And I guess scum had no part in pushing his wagon to this point

Maybe. Maybe not. However, that series of events that went down at the end of it after nets claim are totally nutso.

Actually, I am barking up the wrong tree at the moment:

Unvote, Vote Seol

.

If he flips scum you might as well spend all night working on your fakeclaim because you are dead.

----

And, yea, I'm doing the final piece of my little callout that no one wanted to bite on:

Its obvious I'm a doublevoter. Now, OHH HELL MORE SETUP SPECULATION, but I'd love to see a mini with a scum doublevoter. Now, yea, yea I sure could be a third party but unless someone is gonna go "Yea I totally gave a doublevote to the guy who was in the process of being replaced" well...

(Note, I'm NOT saying this IS what my role is, just that I'm pretty sure it is MY role doing it).

So, what pair of players are camped there?
Who has that player called out?
Hmm, its a mystery, isn't it.

Note: I saw Ice's unvote. This wasn't OHH NOES Secrete Hammer.

[SpyreX]

What in the hells?

Yea, I know I'm not hammering. I was making it clear I knew I wasn't.

[SpyreX]

Being "A doublevoter" is not my role.

However, I think the second vote is a function of my role.

----

And the doublevoter is a function of alignment-related roles. I don't see a lot of mini's with town rolecops, nor do I think I've (ever?) seen a mini with a scum doublevoter). I clearly say this doesn't absolve me from being the mystical SK, but.

[SpyreX]

Considering the fact they voted the first day AND the fact that I've made it pretty clear that my role doesn't spell out I was a doublevoter I'm assuming it was a function of activity.

[SpyreX]

Scratch that. I guess they didn't vote day 1?

[SpyreX]

When Ice said *L-1* I assumed that was *'d because my vote would be the hammer. When I saw that he unvoted while I was typing I made sure to note that it was not some sly attempt to hammer that was undermined by unvoting while I was posting.

That's the only reason I did it to try and stop what happened the last page.

Vote Count Four Teen

SpyreX:

2 (Percy, Seol)

Seol:

2 (SpyreX)

StrangerCoug:

2 (Konowa, MacavityLock)

MacavityLock:

1 (StrangerCoug)

Not Voting:

(elvis_knits, Iecerint)

8

alive,

5

to lynch.

Your rapidly approaching Deadline:

Wednesday, December 2nd, 12:00 Noon EST

[SpyreX]

And with BK/Para not voting Day 1 I don't even know what to make of it. Nothing in the role suggests doublevoter (and this is doubly so day 1) so I have to assume one had nothing to do with the other.

[SpyreX]

So you assumed that by *L-1*, he meant L-2, and it was only effectively L-1 for you? And therefore that when he unvoted, I was three off?

Since I hadn't seen a wave of votes, yea.

---

My role is very ambiguous - hence the think, but not know.

[SpyreX]

If I REALLY need to claim my role to make all this madness go away I will.

I am Benjamin Button. I age backwards. It SAYS I am a VT but says as I grow younger things may happen.

Hence, the doublevoting today I assume.

Also hence my comment on a rolecop probably not being here since they would have got VT on me and that simply isn't the case.

[SpyreX]

Ohh this game.

We've got a deadline coming up. I don't want all this harangue.

So, I'll put my money where my mouth is: I want the lynch to be Seol or me today.

If I flip town, I absolutely want Percy and Seol lynched asap.

If you don't lynch me and I survive tomorrow and I have ANY abilities that I can use to deal with them (I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a dayvig) I'm going to use it.

----

Just to be clear on the key things:

1.) I have absolutely NO idea what my role is going to do tomorrow. I don't know if its going to be new prizes, additional prizes, no prizes, etc.

2.) There is absolutely NO way that wagon shift day 1 was all town. None.

3.) I'm saying lynch Seol because of #2, but if that weren't to exist I would be pushing absolutely hard for a percy lynch. Especially now we're getting the "Ohh yea he's totally scum but lets not lynch him" business.

I am serious about this. Lynch me if that's what it takes.

I am absolutely directing power roles if they have the ability to kill to take care of those two.

[SpyreX]

Further, there are only three real scenarios I could see SC scum and I don't find any of them ALL that likely:

1.) It was a bus for town cred (unlikely considering the timing and rationale for his vote)
2.) The scum have fakeclaims including abilities (because driver isn't going to be a save kind of role)
3.) The scum can daytalk and had coordinated this (unlikely because of what happened / who jumped wagons)

[SpyreX]

Or with a scum getting killed N1 a 1-1 to end this whole business and get things moving even with my mislynch should generate enough damn information to make it worthwhile.

No way in hell I'm making it to endgame unless an SK is killed before then. That's pretty straightforward. And after these whole shenanigans I dont see me getting NK'd any time soon. So, I'll bite the bullet if it is what it takes.

And yea I'm taking a gamble on SC being town but the alternative doesn't add up. Sometimes you've gotta roll the hard six afterall. Further, an SC lynch means that tomorrow is going to be more of the same in regards to this. Which isn't helpful.

Now, does this mean I'm laying down and playing dead? Hell no. I'd much rather lynch Seol and if you want me gone you're gonna have to do it your damn selves.

So, yea.

[SpyreX]

Ohh elvis. <3.

If I'm lying I'll get found out (there's a myriad of ways that would happen).

Of course, I'm not, so.

Lets get that claim and then get to a lynchin'.

[SpyreX]

Good luck with everything Konowa! <3.

Actually ML I think we're at a point I'd love to see your stances on most players in this game all nice and concise.

[SpyreX]

See I could get behind most of that but I'm still not buying SC.

WHY throw the L-1 and force a claim out from a scum PR if you are scum?

Further, that means the jump that happened is just mind blowing.

[SpyreX]

I might be but I have the most absolute time stomaching that being a town flip.

I do have the flipside in your reading though:

Elvis's rationale for jumping makes more sense to me as town jumping on a PM difference - if he flips town the justification for that flip is tough.

Seol's rationale doubles FAR too conveniently for a mislynch justification.

[SpyreX]

Hells with that. Not claiming at this point. Bah.

Fakeclaims take a lifetime. Real ones are pretty easy.

I say hammer this and lets move on.

[SpyreX]

.... Elvis, mdear, you are crazy.

I like it.

Assuming SC is telling the truth (which I'm not sold on BUT).

IF Seol is scum, shoot Percy.
IF Seol is town, its a bit harder. Go with your gut, but if you have to take the shot tonight I'd be apt to tag Konowa.

However, this is a gamble of proportions I am truly proud of.

[SpyreX]

The hammer didn't bother me, the BP did a bit (like I said I'm not sold but we'll see).

Like I said, go gut if this is town. Percy on scum. If SK... well, hells bells I don't know clap your hands because then I'm pretty much town.

Oddly enough this will be interesting to see what the mod does because if Konowa IS a killing faction and we shoved it into night without a replacement.

[SpyreX]

I could see testing the SC BP (I didn't even THINK about simply lying about that part of it wooosh).

If Seol-scum I'd really, really like to see Percy eat a bullet.

[SpyreX]

<3

Everything makes sense.

Yea, Percy or SC depending (or not WIFOMMMMMM).

[SpyreX]

And more and more the pieces unravel.

I'll be that guy: shoot Percy. Period.

[SpyreX]

EBWOP: Or you could shoot me if you really need to (if Seol-town) to eliminate that whole vein tomorrow. I'm mos def not BP.

[SpyreX]

Yea, I think I'm swinging my support behind Percy (scum) or Konowa (other).

I actually have that warm feeling in my belly about all the talkers at the moment.

[SpyreX]

I think we have this worked out. I'm anxious for the flip now.

[SpyreX]

Someday I'll know the logic behind not claiming a PR when you're getting strung up.

Today isn't that day. That day 1 wagon still makes my head reel in retrospect.

I'd love to know what my role would have done. It was quite the crazy little feller'

[SpyreX]

Yes I need to know what my role did.