Mini 902: Pick your Poison 4 (Game over!)

[ortolan]

yo guyth

1- If you were mafia, what 3 roles would you have given town? Why?

weak doctor, doctor, masoniser

2- what roles would be best to select for mafia, why?

On the basis of what I would choose as mafia, godfather and vengeful. However I'm well aware of the WIFOM of what scum chose (they may have simply thought "a cop is too powerful to include", or they may have thought "the town 'knows' a cop is too powerful to include, and would expect us not to include it, therefore we should." I would never give them a day rolecop or a janitor, screwing with reveals is horrible and day rolecop is potentially really powerful (I could consider day rolecop a bit more I guess).

I think that vengeful is an obvious choice for the mafia, it's simply an extra kill at some point (although they could use it e.g. to circumvent doctor protection).

I would say vengeful and godfather or vengeful and roleblocker.

I welcome arguments for why the daycop isn't that powerful though.

also we should definitely hypoclaim in case the weak doctor is in the setup.

more as it comes to me

[ortolan]

Yos I agree with some of what you are saying, but this is bad reasoning:

Every other scum role has a much lower chance then that of doing anything. A scum rolecop is only bad if it finds a pro-town power role day 1, which isn't all that likely; a vengeful killer has almost the same odds of KILLING a pro-town power role as a rolecop has of just FINDING one on night 1.

Indeed the vengeful mafiate's

ability

is almost as likely to hit a PR as the rolecop ability is on day/night one, especially when used in conjunction with the scum's normal nightkill. But there's only a 1/12 chance of it being activated on day one anyhow (if the vengeful is actually lynched), whereas the rolecop resolves 100% of the time. That's an enormous difference which you have to take into account.

Also, unless you end up with massclaim or large numbers of claims before the end of day two, the rolecop gives them two chances to off powerroles with a headstart on the town identifying them. Your post seems to imply you think the rolecop is a night ability- it is a day ability.

[ortolan]

actually I think I've changed my preference to vengeful/godfather or rb/godfather

I don't see roleblocker being that useful- it is limited use and is likely to only be used against power-role claimaints. Then again I also don't see vengeful being that bad.

[ortolan]

mmm maybe rolecop is better than roleblocker- all it really does is increase scum's chances of hitting power roles at night

Vote: rolecop

[ortolan]

I agree that in many possible scenarios the roleblocker will be worse than the rolecop, but the good thing about the rolecop is it functions in a predictable way. It's not really a swingy role like the roleblocker is, which could really net the scum a substantial advantage with some luck or a well-placed block in response to claim etc. The rolecop is just a decent % chance to hit bonus.

[ortolan]

am still looking over PYP3 but janitor role still sounds horrible to me- covers up PRs, facilitates fakeclaiming for scum, facilitates wifom over whether a power-role claimant is telling the truth in the later game etc.

[ortolan]

what's BBM?

[ortolan]

RBT is rather scummy

Firstly that whole table thing just looks like an attempt to pretend to contribute- "hey guys, we probably have a masoniser on our hands!"

Also the whole "we should lynch chamber because of ~incoherent reason vaguely related to someone saying chamber never gives reasoning~"

CooLDoG usually plays like this (see: meta, his signature). Thus he gets a free pass relative to RBT who I recall being less anti-town and illogical in Sushi Mafia.

Vote: RBT

[ortolan]

EBWOP: Of course no two people should protect the same person.

What is the reasoning for this?

No clue really. I think I might have been getting the weak doc mixed up with something else. Actually now that I think of it, and after rereading pyp2 a little bit, we should definitely repeat choices, so that if the weak doc ends up protecting a kill the scum do not automatically no his/her identity. We should have like groups of 2 or 3 people that protect the same person.

Yer I agree, I meant to bring that up before also

Poro: CooLDoG needs to give me something scummier than his base play for me to vote him. I prefer RBT atm.

RBT: acknowledge my mistake wrt Sushi Mafia. Still, I won't consider unvoting you until you move (or provide better rationale for) the chamber vote.

[ortolan]

Ort post 39: Why do you feel vengeful is an obvious choice to give the mafia?

At that stage I was regarding it as simply an extra kill, not as bad as any of the other choices. With the 3v9 structure it seemed unlikely to impact the game in terms of bringing us one day/night closer to a scum victory at any point. I don't think of it as an obvious choice to give the mafia anymore. I think my eventual reasoning was that godfather is a given because it's of limited use and that the rolecop, basically being a + % to hit chance for scum, is better than any of the alternatives.

Unvote vote farside22

For the record, I agree that farside isn't really making any sense here, but I think she's probably town.

Can I get some more detail on this? Do you think she often talks kind of incoherently (no offence) as town? Do you think it is in fact a town-tell? Or do you get a townie vibe from her posts in spite of her incomprehensible position on chamber?

In other news, RBT and Cooldog, scumlist in following posts.

I would like this too please.

[ortolan]

RBT you are on L-1, please claim in your next post

[ortolan]

You were incredibly frustrated in Final Fantasy mafia when I lead a lynch on you day 1. Here your not frustrated, your being obstinate. Why?

@Yoss- My reasoning for you being scum actually has less to do with your actual play and more with your attitude. You are coming off to me just like you did in WoT mafia, lashing out at all potential attackers and not like you did in California Trilogy 3 where you carefully answered anyone's concerns without the counter attack.

I agree with Yos in that these two points sound contradictory (although I can't find final fantasy to find out if Yos was in fact mafia in that game).

[ortolan]

CoolDoG: "Claim or die claim or die claim or die" sounds a lot like "I'm gonna push this lynch because it's so easy".
Anon: see CoolDog
Chamber: I have no idea what his thoughts are. While I have no meta research, I don't like this either way. Flipping town or scum, he's still scum.
Farside: I find the idea blowing up such a small point tends to be somewhat scummy. However, her meta also shows that she tends to blow up small points either way. Definitely fourth, but I could consider this later.

Do you disagree that you've acted in any way scummily? Your top two suspects are there basically because they're voting you. Have you ever played with chamber before? What games is your meta on farside based on? The way you've expressed it farside "blowing up small points" is a null-tell, not a scum-tell.

You also don't understand what "policy lynch" means. It has nothing to do with scumminess, it has everything to do with using a useless playstyle for communication and overall effectiveness. (See also, lynching people who only have few and far between posts, and they're almost always content free.)

How many completed town games have you attempted to policy lynch people in previously?

[ortolan]

prodded, will post tomorrow

[ortolan]

I know you guys have been desperately awaiting my input so I am deeply sorry to have kept you in suspense.

@cool: Would I forsake a lynch? Maybe.

But policy lynches prevent us from having scummy behavior in later days. If we don't lynch him today, I want to see it tomorrow.

I won't move my vote unless it's obvious that nobody wants to see the lynch

(which is sad, because if he is scum, then he can slip by with nobody caring).

His playstyle is what is policy-lynch scummy. Scot, for the most part, reads townish to me. Just had a few hiccups in good posts due to RL it seems.

@Far: It's scummy because they could be hiding what they know to be the real info. Obviously, this is WIFOM, but a minor detail.

@Ort: I don't understand why people think I'm scummy, but I can clearly tell they think I am. Three of my four top suspicions are voting me, but that's because of what I've previously stated. Farside meta has several games. Most recent was monks and masons.

I've never previously led a policy lynch like this, but I've seen it work to great effect, so I wanted to try it here as I saw a good way to find people who weren't going to contribute.

I don't like any of the bolded in this post. We could only policy lynch every game and guaranteed we'd lose practically every one. This should be obvious. Policy lynches are a waste of a good opportunity unless the setup is completely town-biased to begin with and it doesn't matter. Of course it's sad if chamber "slips by" as scum but that's the same for everyone, so I don't get what point you're trying to make. You could arbitrarily say "let's policy lynch this guy, he could be scum and if we don't we'll miss a valuable opportunity." That's as effective as random lynching and won't work 99% of the time in a remotely balanced setup. Also, you should know no-one else wants to lynch chamber, as you're the only one voting him.

- When have you seen policy lynches work to great effect previously, and why were they successful for any reason other than luck?

Should RBT be town Leech has a good chance of being scum, that's unnatural wagon avoidance right there.

It's hard to say if I was week doc who I would protect.

I'm not sure you understand the point of this exercise. The main purpose is to trace the cause of death should the weak doctor die tonight.

Yos: you haven't elaborated on your apparent opposition to a weak doctor hypo.

[ortolan]

no sir

[ortolan]

Unvote

for now

I will look at the game and decide whether to revote before bed I promise

[ortolan]

yer timing of claim and his failure to go out of his way to justify why we shouldn't lynch him is scummy.

Vote: RBT

I will be protecting Yos tonight.

[ortolan]

That's rather annoying as Yos never hypo'ed who he was going to hide behind (for reasons known only to him).

Will get some reads on RBT's buddies tomorrow hopefully.

[ortolan]

The scum know their claims are fake and the only thing they have to worry about is if someone targets one of them.
I think if I was a weak doc I would try and be subtle about who I was going to protect in some way. Idk I'm trying to think of the best way to utilize a possible role.

My advice to the weak doc would be something like this:

A weak doc, if there is one, should protect someone he or she thinks is obvtown. This both confirms the person as town, and has a good shot of preventing a scum kill, as well as making the scum second-guess their kill choice if the most obvtown person might get protected, and is less likely to cost us the weak doc. Probably the best thing a weak doc can do is to carefully confirm a few people as town and then claim, and/or breadcrumb after confirming someone as town. Breadcrumbing before the weak doc targets someone is possible too, although it's tricker.

Now look through and see how many times he says farside is obvtown.

vote farside

I don't think he said it too many times, but based on the fact he specifically said "the weak doc should breadcrumb" and called her town more than any other person, frankly she seems to be an obvious choice for a lynch (barring the vig situation described by scotmany).

[ortolan]

LOL

[ortolan]

boberz feels immensely town, as does Poro (even moreso if farside is scum). I especially like how poro is attacking cooldog's posting style while not calling him scummy, that's extremely town.

Not sure I understand why Sajin is addressing Yos post mortem (especially wrt to the "you did not win that argument" stuff).

cooldog is always a bit "out there" so he's still nullish. Personally IIRC I'm yet to see a scum game of his (don't quote me on that) so dunno what the distinctions to look for in being town vs being scum are.

[ortolan]

I always enjoy cooldog's posts

[ortolan]

die pls Anon

Vote: Anon

[ortolan]

Anon is def. scum. If nothing else the way he retalivotes scotmany is massively scummy. scotmany was even voting him as early back as the same page he made the smoking gun "farside is town" post. Someone drawing the obvious conclusion from declaring a flipped scum player "obv-town", and not just that but demanding people off her wagon; that you're scum, is in no way scummy. If you were town I'm sure you could appreciate how people would validly find you scummy (and as you said so yourself the only reasonable play is to "let the game move forward"- if you're town you'd know you'd be nothing but a liability after making comments as scummy as you did.)

[ortolan]

Anon hasn't been lynched yet. It's L-1.

[ortolan]

mmmm yes I am thinking nolynch before we get a claim also.

[ortolan]

although there seems quite a good possibility that scum could hit the doctor. Scum could have nokilled but that wouldn't make sense from a tactical standpoint, only if scum were too incompetent to submit a kill. If doc claims now then we get all but guaranteed two innocents.

[ortolan]

Ortolan where were you yesterday, you seemed to vote then dissapear.

Um, no?

Vote: scotmany

[ortolan]

Ortolan: You made two posts in the whole of yesterday, one was a vote the other directly below it. You were not around much. Point stands.

That supposed to be a scumtell? For moi? Don't make me laugh. Actually I'm more likely to cry. I think there have actually been multiple games where someone has said something dumb like "ortolan contributed a lot day one and has since posted less, I don't think I can trust him". I always have to defend "posting frequency variation is not a scumtell" and it gets very frustrating after a while, especially considering I have been a chronic receiver of prods recently, not that I don't try to contribute when I have time or gain the motivation to do so.

Again it's dumb here because I was rather confident Anon was scum and we'd be straight on our way to 2010 scummies for a "perfect" game.

[ortolan]

I'll need to think about doc-claiming actually. If doc claims today they end up dead with one confirmed townie but in 4p MYOL. That isn't that useful when we could have nolynched and had the scum confirm a townie for us (by killing them) anyway.

[ortolan]

If we don't do this, there is a 20% chance that the doc gets killed in the night, and we lose this information.

Actually it's 25%, and that's assuming the scum does so randomly and doesn't seek doc-tells. I don't think claim or otherwise is really clear cut.

Uh, if we lynch now and no-lynch tomorrow we will be no-lynching in LyLo... Why is that even an option you are entertaining?

Not correct.

What do you think, scotmany?

[ortolan]

wew I just got prodded like a second ago.

Ortolan, you are still against a claim? and what is your position on nolynch and when?

Against a claim, wha? No I am and have always been solidly in favour of a claim. I think the chance of the doctor dying in the night is too high to forgo claiming today.

scot: the fact for me is you seem a (very) obvious choice right now because I'm not feeling any of the other players in this game are particularly likely to be scum. I didn't really find you scummy and initially thought your brazen defence of RBT day one was kind of too scummy to be scum, but on reflection it may just be outright scummy.

[ortolan]

I dont understand why any of you think that two inncocents is enough considering we have got two nights left???

It might not be enough to

autowin

but it'll still place us in a very good position, especially when compared to losing the doc's information if they die tonight.

Right okay, having read through the best course of action is a hypo-doc claim with who you protected last night only. The reason I say this is because I think its likely scum didnt submit a night kill and there might not even be a doctor. Id be suprised if someone like farside or even RBT added both a weak doc and a doc to the same game.

Why don't you think they would have put a weak doc and doc together in the setup?

Another thing to note is that if indeed there is no doctor, then calling for a doc claim does no harm- whoever is the last power role will just ignore the call to arms as they aren't a doctor. The other reason why I think it's likely there's a doctor now is there's been no evidence of any vig kills, and if there was a cop they've had three investigations now and no doubt would be very close to giving us an autowin if they simply claimed today.

[ortolan]

are you suggesting it would be due to apathy or deliberate nokill submission?

[ortolan]

The thing is, Poro, I'm pretty sure whoever the doctor protected last night is going to be relevant evidence in the future anyway, regardless of whether we're WIFOMed over whether the scum submitted a nokill.

If doctor claims today then they

will

die tonight, but we will have a pseudo-confirmed who we can scrutinise even more to evaluate whether they are indeed likely to be town who a kill was attempted on.

I do think if the doctor claims obviously we should lynch though.

I know it's not desirable potentially putting us in 4-person endgame with only one "confirmed" innocent but that seems better to me than the high chance of having the information lost.

[ortolan]

That claim makes a lot of sense.

I totally buy scot's arguments (and my own) for why we shouldn't lynch cooldog. We should lynch scot instead.

Scot, couple of things:

Firstly you have been calling me scum all game. You've conveniently put me as "second" on your scumlist though, at all points in the game.

Day one you voted Anon while having this say about me:

Ortolan is bugging me a little bit too but that's mostly just gut.

What total BS.

Then notice you weak doctor hypo'ed me, not Anon (which makes no sense- why would you suddenly change your "prime" suspect).

Then second day you attack Anon while still keeping me stored up as your second suspect, who you will turn to when Anon flips.

Now today you've been busy attacking boberz (the doctor), and you will turn to me next (again).

It really irritates me that you're trying to save me up to lynch in the endgame. How about instead we just lynch the scum today?

[ortolan]

You conveniently mentioned absolutely nothing during the farside lynch. You didn't say we should lynch her, you didn't say we shouldn't lynch her. You basically disappeared.

Um yer, as I said, you're full of it. I pretty emphatically stated we should lynch her as soon as the Yos-breadcrumbs were pointed out.

I don't think he said it too many times, but based on the fact he specifically said "the weak doc should breadcrumb" and called her town more than any other person, frankly she seems to be an obvious choice for a lynch (barring the vig situation described by scotmany).

Also I was one of the main proponents of the RBT wagon day one, anyone (e.g. you) who ignores that to say I've "done nothing all game" is clearly deluding themselves and trying to pull the wool over the eyes of the town.

Nice that your counter-attack stems purely from fiction.

[ortolan]

If you state that someone is an obvious choice for a lynch, then that means you think they "obviously" need to be lynched. I don't even think anyone suggested she didn't need to be lynched. I suppose I should have spammed the game up with crap? Now you're gonna say some total rubbish like "because you weren't physically on the farside wagon you opposed her lynch", which is totally laughable. Pretty sure if I was scum I'd want to be first on the wagon after calling my buddy an "obvious" lynch.

[ortolan]

frankly she seems to be an obvious choice for a lynch

sorry, that is about as emphatic as you can get. The reason I didn't post for the rest of the day was probably cause I was busy at work or something, I don't remember.

[ortolan]

okay you're obv-scum as long as you get lynched prior to the end of the game I don't even care anymore

[ortolan]

you guys are going to lynch scot after me right?

it's still

rather

extremely irritating that I get lynched before scot considering I was like second on RBT's wagon day one and I said I wanted to lynch farside but didn't actually vote her, which only serves to make myself look more scummy when she eventually flips scum. So his entire case against me is transparent BS but he flies by on the obv "omg guys cooldog is town" observation.

[ortolan]

oh and also on day one you'll see I could have just wagoned cooldog instead of my obv-scumbuddy RBT.

[ortolan]

oh and also on day one you'll see I could have just wagoned cooldog instead of my obv-scumbuddy RBT.

Nice wifom. And no you couldn't. You first chose RBT before it was clear he was going to get lynched, and you said that this was cooldog's normal play and that his actions day one weren't scummy for him.

CooLDoG usually plays like this (see: meta, his signature). Thus he gets a free pass relative to RBT who I recall being less anti-town and illogical in Sushi Mafia.

You backed yourself into a corner with that, and couldn't have wagoned cooldog because of what you said. Plus, you also would have been attacked for staying off the RBT wagon (despite saying he was scummy).

Yer you are succeeding in stretching out an incredibly improbably scenario in which I'm scum, but you're not telling me why it's scummy to wagon scum in the first place, and why it's not scummy to insist that said scum is town. Saying "you wagoned him before it was clear he was gonna get lynched and therefore your hands are tied" is just lol-logic. You could say the same thing about Yos2? No no your hands are squeaky clean because you insisted your scumbuddy was town.

Also, I should note, that the minute I mention I think ortolan might be scummy, Ortolan instantly finds me scummy rather than what he originally posted:

scot: the fact for me is you seem a (very) obvious choice right now because I'm not feeling any of the other players in this game are particularly likely to be scum. I didn't really find you scummy and initially thought your brazen defence of RBT day one was kind of too scummy to be scum, but on reflection it may just be outright scummy.

The instant I say he might be scum, he starts to spew out how everything I say is bs and how I have been trying to set up his lynch since day one.

Again you are completely red in the face lying here. I said quite specifically "scotmany has been attacking me all game, yet always put me as second on his list to be lynched". The first time I suspected you is today. All your points against me are

factually incorrect

. I don't know why anyone is taking you seriously.

[ortolan]

Chaz's current unvote makes me very certain that he is town. Couple that with him pointing out yos's breadcrumb and I am very confident he is town.

yes we already know he is town, scumbag

[ortolan]

I would have attacked you right away had you switched your vote onto cooldog.

Um so you are basically saying you are going to attack me whatever I do, including taking the pro-town and correct course of action of trying to lynch RBT. So you are basically admitting to being scum here.

I didn't lye anywhere. I could have worded that better and said that the instant I listed you as possible scum this day.

Your point is: "ortolan is attacking me as soon as I call him scum". This is 100% wrong. You have been calling me scum all game, based on no evidence. If I was attacking you purely because you called me scum, I would have been counterattacking your badly reasoned attacks all game.

[ortolan]

Um what? No. How have I changed my approach exactly?

[ortolan]

All I see is you bringing up a whole bunch of reasons why I'm town but voting me anyway. Oh apart from the "coaching" accusation i.e. I am scummy for asking for a claim from someone I suspect who's on L-1.

I stand by that lynching me is retarded, and think scot should have been lynched first (although I guess it's immaterial as if he was town, which I highly highly highly doubt, I'd probably get lynched in endgame anyhow. Still frustrating from a "I shouldn't have been lynched" point of view though).

[ortolan]

I agree that it an intelligent approach, but I find it extremely unlikely it could be anyone but scot, his tunneling on me all game has just been ridiculous, I can not see

any

town player saying "ortolan is bothering me, but that's just gut", then when I'm second on RBT's wagon, next time around I'm again "one of his suspects" without explaining how I apparently bused my partner day one. Just sort by posts: scotmany and do ctrl+f "ortolan". Every time he has mentioned me it has been completely and utterly scummy. Would

any

town player even have a chance of playing like this?

[ortolan]

what?

[ortolan]

And I have just realized you have been lying this whole time. You were third on the initial RBT wagon. Sajin voted before you. Just because he unvoted RBT doesn't mean you automatically become second on RBT's wagon.

Ok fair cop, I didn't notice that.

[ortolan]

Look I would

really

prefer you lynch scot today. I'm not sure what else to say. If I get lynched rather than him you should look very very very very hard @ him tomorrow.

[ortolan]

what sentence are you referring to? and please tell me where I was trying to "teach RBT" beyond asking him to claim.

[ortolan]

Also, I'm not going to vote cooldog. I just don't think he is scum.

I also don't wish to vote cooldog, for mainly the same reasons as you (sigh).

[ortolan]

rofl. I think I'm going to have to nominate cooldog for best role claim for that one.

[ortolan]

I will hammer cooldog if people won't lynch scott.

[ortolan]

I'm not voting for cooldog. I'm not going to help lynch someone I believe to be town.

This coming just after you repeatedly said no-lynching is completely pointless (which it is).

[ortolan]

Lynching someone I believe strongly to be town will hurt the town

if he turns up town.

Yes, while that is true there is no guarantee that he is town. For all you know, assuming you aren't scum, is that you're passing up at the chance to kill scum. No lynching is a bad idea. While CoolDog isn't my first choice, as I've stated, we have to do something. I'd rather lynch CoolDog than do nothing.

Except I firmly believe him to be town. Firmly. I repeat, I am not voting someone I believe strongly to be town. I would obviously prefer we lynch ortolan. But while I said no lynch was pointless before, I will take that over lynching someone I strongly believe to be town.

the thing is this doesn't even make sense from a theoretical perspective. even though you may think cooldog is town, it doesn't mean everyone else does. Lynching someone you think is town when it's not LYOL is in many cases a good idea when it means progress for the town.

[ortolan]

I prefer a lynch of you ortolan.

I was aware of this already

[ortolan]

care to hammer anyone?

[ortolan]

Oh hello scummany. Is that all you've got after sabotaging your own attempts to "lynch at all costs" yesterday? LoL

Vote: scotmany

Lynch the scum pl0x

[ortolan]

Ortolan is obviously scum with his vote on me today.

Okay please explain this, I'm dying to see what your justification for this one is.

[ortolan]

You guys are totally beyond help if you think scotmany refusing to hammer someone who is town is more town than me offering to remove a suspect from the pool by hammering, it's the most blatant scumplay I've ever seen. So I get to be mislynched tomorrow and we hand the game to scotmany. Yay, let's do this team, it's gonna be stellar.

[ortolan]

wtf I got lynched? That was screwed up. How come you didn't claim doc farside? I guess I'm relieved at not having to persist in an unwinnable situation. I was surprised that scot was so persistent on me all game, well done there.

Good job town. CoolDog has got to be the most frustrating player to play with.

Actually I think he was pretty helpful for town in his behaviour really, he was easy to read certainly.

I dont think ortolan did that well, tbh. Lurk less plz.

I didn't deliberately lurk I was just kind of busy. And I often felt there wasn't much more I could post after farside died without totally committing myself to a position which would automatically get me lynched down the track.

I think farside forgetting to use her protection was a very very big factor in our loss, I don't think either of us would have been obvious targets after day one especially as Yos tried to protect her and would half confirm her. Well done to Poro for picking up those breadcrumbs. I still was surprised farside went down without claiming doc as we'd planned. If I'd been able to kill the doc that day I still think I had a decent chance. I killed Sajin because I was hunting the doc and was kind of lazy with rereading fully in order to do so, and also because I thought Poro would draw protection (and already knew from the rolecop that he was vanilla). Otherwise I would have killed him right away. I find it really strange it turned out boberz actually protected *me* the night I would have killed Poro, and then not Poro but Leech (who was also an attempt at killing the doctor). So yer if farside had claimed doc and been counter-claimed I could have kept a whole lot of mislynch targets alive rather than inadvertently killing vanilla townies who potentially could have been mislynched in the future. Alternatively if we hadn't lost the rolecop day one that could have helped us a fair bit too.