Mini 208: Weather Mafia - Game over

[Foolster41]

vote: baby jesus

because his avatar is just... disturbing.

[Foolster41]

Sorry.

vote: baby jesus

[Foolster41]

Was I not supposed ot have image sigs? I couldn't find any site rules anywhere. I'll remove it if you want.

BabyJesus Said:

"not sure why we are bothering to random vote in such a short-handed game...

We may as well get started running someone up so we can get real inisght...."

Sounds rather bloody thirsty to me.

Fos: Baby Jesus

[Foolster41]

Sounds like YOUR playing the wrong game.
Sure people are going to die, but only the MAFIA in this game want to kill people without much thought. If you knew how to play the game you should know that, and I don't think anyone else is fooled.

And FOS is used when either:
1.)You don't think it warrents a vote
or
2.)You're already voting and you want to show that you are now even more suspicious of a person.

[Foolster41]

It's true that BJ may always do that. Fine. But we shouldn't reward bad play

And what is "run someone up" an euphism for? Killing them. If you ment Push for info with a vote, that's what you should have said.

About the FOS thing. Per haps you are right about that. It doesn't really mean much anyway, it has no real mechanic in the game and is only used to point something out, so it doesn't seem to be any harm to use it, even if over done. No one has even been fingered to death that I know of.

[Foolster41]

STD: What did I not reconize and put a spin on? I may agree wiht you if you tell me what I did wrong. Do you mean "FOS"?

BJ: What you just discribed sounds to me like "voting for info". you vote with the purpose not to explicitly kill the person but get info and move on if we beleive them, or kill them if we don't. It sounds like simply you just didn't clearly say what you ment (I know we all do that sometimes)

Unvote: BJ

I think I'm satisfied for now.

[Foolster41]

Do you mean "FOS"?.

My bad. I seemed to have misstyped 'vote.'

Huh? What do you mean by this? You said I failed to reconize a mafiascum practice and put a spin on it, and I was wondering if you ment my definition of FOS.

This is killing people for information. It's what we do. We don't have it, and roles get it, but the next best thing is death. Calling it bloodthirsty is rather hypocritical; mafia IS bloodthirsty. God, I'm so thirsty right now.

Then you said that BJ was killing without much thought, when he never actually said this.

Yes, there IS death involved in mafia on both side. I'm no wimp, I understand that. But only the MAFIA should be bloodthirsty, the town needs to be shrewd and know how to prod to discover who to lynch. killing a townie (even plain) on a lynch is ALWAYS BAD, and thus randomly killing is always bad. This is what I thought BJ ment because of the terminology ("Running up" by definition has not conotations of waiting to see if their innocent, as you described.).


Puzzle:
*Sigh* And If I kept calling for BJ's death for no reason? Also It wasn't much of a bandwagon yet, now was it? I realized that it was simply a misujnderstanding.miscomunication that caused me to suspect BJ. I'm still watching him as possible since he's not confirmed either way, but I'm not as suspicious any more. This is from PERSONAL OSERVATIONS not simply being told "he's always like this."
Also, Saying I know BJ acts that way is a rather bold statement since I don't think I've ever played in a game with him before. I think I would know better than you what games I've played in.

What's been happening as I see it:
-I randomly voted for Baby Jesus
-Baby jesus said "let's run someone up" I throught of this as sounding like "Let's just kill someone now, with no chance of claim"
-He clearified, and so I unvoted.

[Foolster41]

I realize I said something that might be confusing when I say "Wait to see if they are innocent" what I mean is, have them claim and descide weither it's beleivable. Sorry about that.

[Foolster41]

DP: What you quoted were two statements:

1.)Killing any townie is bad
Unless of course you are scum.
2.)Random voting is bad
because there is a good chance you will hit a teammat. I beleive it's been held as "canon" that short days are bad for the town. Again, unless you are scum and know who your allies are.

Could you please explain why this is "crappy logic"?

If I am being too defensive you are being too offensive. In my mind, the second is a greater sign in mafia scum.

unvote. FOS: PD

No vote for now, I want to hear what you have to say. What does everyone else think about this?

[Foolster41]

You may be right about the killing thing, I think it's mostly a disagreement of styles. I tend to play any game very defensivly, not wanting to loose any advantage at all. I hate trading aproximitly equal peices in chess, even if trading might bring me a better advantage that's less obvious. I don't see either way as "better" or "worse" but we have different styles of play.

[quote=DP]
First of all, bandwagon does? Second of all, random bandwagons that come out of nowhere and literally violate a player until he screams uncle and claims is better than being run up? Why do you think some people refuse to claim? [/quote]
Could you please rephrase this statement please? I had trouble understanding it.

[Foolster41]

DP: basicly, you're saying it's the "same difference".

To tell you the truth I've never come across the term "run up" and I've never thought of bandwagoning like that.

So where do we go from here? I noticed yesterday that I have 5 votes on me. Seems I'm always the bandwagon target day one. Do you want me to claim now?

[Foolster41]

My weather condition is snow. I am a cop. Since now the mafia know who I am, I am an obvious choice for night kill and I since it started on day I never got to use my abillity.
so I can't really prove I'm a cop either.

[Foolster41]

Sorry double post, but I just realized what the "yeah DP that made no sense" thing that STD said ment. Sorry about that STD. guess the acronym names got me all confused.

[Foolster41]

Baby Jesus]
Probably cop, doc, townie, etc.. were just assigned to "normal" weather condition, like snow, rain, etc... with the scum being assigned "bad" conditions, like tornado, hurricane, flood, etc..

This makes sense to me, and so not wanting to even give a weather condition seems very suspiciou, espeicaly since the connection between condition and role is pretty loose. Should we kill hin now? What does everybody else think?

Crola: The entire day? It should be based on real time, because if he gets lynched day one and if he's gone for a legitimate reason, he won't have a chance to defend himself and if we ignore him because his reason might be legitimate then he gets a unreasonable by. How long has it been since the prod?

[Foolster41]

Ok, so I investigated save the dragons and got a unknown result. It seems unlikely a townie would need a alignment blocking role, (Unless the mod's being tricky Hmm...) so I think most likely he's GF.

vote: STD

At the very least I would like to hear what he has to say.

[Foolster41]

Stryker: Phenoix is right about that. By just to satisfy you, done and done.

I have never heard of a cop role where he always gets "unknown" though I hadn't thought of the fact that a standard townie role blocker might do that I guess. (What is the normal result of a blocked cop?)

[Foolster41]

Sorry Dragon Phoenix. I can't Spel.

Veridel is right abouit the weather names thing/. At first I did think the names were a clue to alignment (I didn't think of snow as very bad, but a snow storm would) but drizzle doesn't sound very bad, and hail doesn't sound very good.

What reasoning was bad Vuredel? I can't remember what led to the claim, but then he refused to claim. If you are hidding somehting it's because you have something to hide. If you're a power role (The one semi-theasible reason for refusal) you might as well claim rather than everyone suspect you and risk wasting a lynch.

I'm still not convinced STD is pro-town as he says and think he would be the best suspect to push for a full claim. STD's theory that the mafia descided to not kill me but block me instead sounds unlikely. Also if doesn't a doc protect all actions against a player? (Block and kill target) so doing both together seems unlikely. This leaves only one possiblity in my mind, that it is a built-in role and the only one who would have that is the GF.

[Foolster41]

Ok, so there were points on basic mafia physics that I couldn't remember.

Thinking back, I'm pretty sure that it would apear innocent, not unknown thing. It does seem most likely that I was roleblocked. (Though that does not mean it's a scum roleblocker, just someone perhaps who doesn't trust me)

But I still don't see STD why, given the chance scum would choose to bind a cop with a blocker rather than kill him if they had the chance?

[Foolster41]

Oh yeah and I'm moving my extra vote to Veridel.

[Foolster41]

At first I was thinking"What the heck, let's push Vuridel for a claim and get some new info" But actually, I don't really suspect him. And so if he is a townie and we push him to claim that would be a bad thing. I'll keep it where it is, to prove I am snow.

The only time a mass claim works is if the roles would be very clear who is good/who is bad with a small pool of possible charecters (like in theme games). Good examples of successfull mass claims include "Justice League Mafia". I would think that it is very improbible that it would work here, since we have no idea if there is a pattern in the names connecting with the roles.

[Foolster41]

As I said before, I changed my mind. The hidden vote SHOULD be Verde.
Now Vuridel has only 2 votes - BJ and UT

A hidden vote would apear as "??" as per the rules on page one, though it's a good idea as general policy to keep a extra buffer in case a scum has it and tries quick lynching.

What I want to know is, are we going to be stuck here until someone finally puts Vuridel close enough to claim? Nothing Vuridel's said or done has perticually screamed "scum" to me.

Dragon Phoenix: why did you just unvote like that?

[Foolster41]

I have to say I tend to beleive Vuridel more than Untrod. Also DP's switching on an off makes me a little suspicious of him as well.

Neither Vur or UT bgave us information that could not be deduced, so neither really helped prove their claim either. It's a tough choice.

[Foolster41]

[Quote=Wikipedia.com]
Ockham. It forms the basis of methodological reductionism, also called the principle of parsimony or law of economy.

In its simplest form, Occam's Razor states that one should make no more assumptions than needed. Put into everyday language, it says

The simplest explanation is the best.

When multiple explanations are available for a phenomenon, the simplest version is preferred. For example, a charred tree on the ground could be caused by a landing alien ship or a lightning strike. According to Occam's Razor, the lightning strike is the preferred explanation as it requires the fewest assumptions.[/quote]

When you say "partly because he says that it's 100% that I'm scum (which it isn't by any stretch of the imagination)," are you refering to:

[Quote=Stryker]
One of them is scum, that is something I believe 100% of the town knows. We cannot have 2 doctors in a game like this. [/qupte]

This is clearly what he

didn't

say. He only made the (albiet obvious) note that one of them is in fact scum, not nessicerily you.

FOS: Vuridel/B]. This looks to me like intentional word mangling. I have a good notion to vote Vuridel, but are we ready to kill yet?

[Foolster41]

Vur: Sorry, you're right. It looks like you were refering to DP. I dind't even see DP's comment.

unfos Vur

Still what UT says makes sense, so if we are going to lynch one of the two, I'm leaning twords Vuridel. It seems BJ's plan for not lynching either is if we are still unsure, which I guess is the case for me, though as I said, Veridal looks at least 20% more likely in my mind to be scum.

Though out of the three Stryk, Vurd and Puzz are the most logical suspects. though I don't have much of a "scum vibe" from either. The only other person I sort of suspect is STD because of some things he said before that didn't sit well with me, though I'm not 100% sure.

BJ: Why is EnderX a good choice?
STD: Why baboomancer?

[Foolster41]

i Guess I didn't understnad BJ's "plan". The connection between "backer" and "doc-possible" is so loose that there is no real way we can tell either way.

Also, why the heck are we planning for the next night's lynch as well? Tommarow could very well bring brand new information. this seems like the worst possible strategy, we have a very high likelyhood following this plan to not only allow a doc and a cop (me) to quickly die, but to accidently lynch a townie as well.

I know this isn't a solution. Maybe it's best to look at someone else for a lynch (besides the two "doc-possibles", but we should do it based on LOGIC, not by making odd associations between players.

[Foolster41]

Sorry, the last paragraph is confusing. What I ment is "I know I'm not presenting a solution."

[Foolster41]

The point was is it's not really even a plan. There is no actual link between the two who claim to be doc and their "backers".

UT's point about how Vuridel is more likely makes a lot of sense to me. Therefore

unvote: STD. Vote: vuridel

STD said by not lynching either, we get one more cop night. This only makes sense if we have a chance of killing the doc today. If we don't lynch either, then I am

dead by tommarrow night

anyway. So basicly if we do lynch we have a 50% chance of getting an extra night with a cop at best. If we kill neither, then we have a 100% chance of me dying tommarow night unless the mafia have a serious. brain fart. So it seems the best plan of action would to lynch one, even if we are not 100% (what town ever is? if ever, very rarely), I wish there was some way we could get info from the two, some kind of question to reveal their innocence guilt, but I can't think if any.

[Foolster41]

Why would The mafia be stupid to lynch the doc tonight? There's nothing to stop them from killing him, and then it's a clear shot to me.

I think I see what you mean now about not lynching one of the two. If we lynch one of the "docs", asuming 50/50 chance of being mafia or doc, these are the extreme scenerios:

Lynching a "doc"
worst Case: Lynch Doc. loose cop,kill mafia,a pro-town dies.
Best Case: We lynch 2 mafia, loose cop and doc

Lynching another
Worst Case: we kill a towne, loose doc, we lynch another townie and another townie dies.
Med. Case: we kill a mafia and a townie, loose doc, cop.
Best Case: We kill two mafia, loose doc and cop.

It seems the lynching someone else plan has much better chances. It also looks like at this point, the town isn't going to end favorly any way you look at it, but it's best to cut our losses. I didn't understand before, but BJ's right that we are asured one more investigation if we lynch someone else. Though I have to say again that this "kill the backer" thing is utter madness.

[Foolster41]

You should alreayd know BJ from my earlier posts who I suspect.

STD is suspect to me. as I've said a few times, thougn I am no where near 100% certin, but he's the most suspicious to me so far.

[Foolster41]

Bah, you're right. It should be

We lynch townie, doc dies, we lynch scum, cop dies (Town: 1, Mafia: 3)

[Foolster41]

Sorry double post, but I went and did some resaech on my facts.

back on pages 2-3. STD voted for me, because I "failed to understand a common practice and twisted it" and then he made it sound like there was a misunderstanding on his part, but never really clearified (at least in a understandable way) even though he was asked and for quite a while afterword kept his vote on me, even though the reason he was voted (or so it sounded to me) was bunked. This isn't by any means a large thing, but it causes me to suspect STD at least a little bit. If anything a pinky of suspicion.

STD: Could you please explain what was going on then? You said somethikng about meaning to FOS or vote or something? Sorry, but it's quite a fee blocks so I didn't want to have to go and dig them all up.

[Foolster41]

UT: That is utter crap. Sacrificing pro-towns for information is better because we will eventually know who the scum is. Plus as long as you protect me, we will have a cop and a doc still alive. I don't however, think this is "proof" of his guilt and I do think that Vuridel is still more likely scum. I think that you should most definitlt NOT lynch UT, but we should look at who we think is scum and get some info.

I say we go for STD, for the lack of any better information and go from there. We have a claimed cop and doc, I doubt there's anythihg else really important that we can loose. Let's just get on with this day already.

I hope to God that Crola's not being clever and put in two docs. If he did, we are in so much trouble.

[Foolster41]

Stryker: You're convinced because of that one thing UT said which any mafia would have to be STUPID to say? That sound rediculous to me and makes me wonder about your townieness. Vuridel is way more liekly of being scum, but it sounds like you're grasping at straws to save your buddy.

[Foolster41]

BJ: Why stryker?

I have reason to beleive (though it's not 100% confirmed) that STD is the remaining scum. Unfortunitly I am unable to say why.

[Foolster41]

I forgot to mention, I investigated BJ last night and came up with innocent, also based on how he has been acting, I am pretty sure he is innocent.

Can we hold off on a lynch for just a little bit please?

[Foolster41]

No I'm not kidding.

Beleive it or not, you were not completly cleared BJ, as much as you'd like to think so. I was mildy sure of your innocence, but i liked the idea of making sure. Otherwise I didn't know who else to research.

EnderX's claim does look fishy to me, but I think I've found evidence that STD is scum, though unfortunitly I am unable to say why. I admit there is a possibility that I am wrong, but I think the odds are around 80% that STD is scum.

[Foolster41]

[quote=baby jesus]
Unless you have a guilty investigation, you don't know anything the rest of us don't know, and less then some. EnderX is the lynch today.[/quote]

Why not let people descide for themselves who to lynch BJ. We can all think fine for ourselves. I tell you I've seen a pattern that makes me suspect STD. Unfortunitly, it is hard to explaion exactly, it is partly intuition and partily having to do with what EnderX said in his last post. You are free to ignore this, but at the town's own peril.

As I said, EnderX's role sounds fishy, but not really clear to me. if this goes nowhere for a long time, then I will go along, but lynch STD tommarrow if Ender turns out to be clean. (Obviously I won't be there)

[Foolster41]

I would like to hear STD's claim before we lynch EnderX, since we already started a mass claim anyways. This day hasn't been going on very loing and so we can't loose anything from waiting just a little bit more.

Unless STD has some shatteringly obvious claim that screams scum, I'll follow you on enderX, but whoever is the roleblocker should target STD, that way I may get one more investigation if STD is the scum.

[Foolster41]

I would like to hear STD's claim before we lynch EnderX, since we already started a mass claim anyways. This day hasn't been going on very loing and so we can't loose anything from waiting just a little bit more.

Unless STD has some shatteringly obvious claim that screams scum, I'll follow you on enderX, but whoever is the roleblocker should target STD, that way I may get one more investigation if STD is the scum.

[Foolster41]

GFs do sometimes come up "unknown". At least, that's what polarboy told me. I'll ask him for examples of games.

I still don't see how it can hurt waiting to hear what STD has to say, since we have already started a mass claim anyway and there's very little likelyness of anything imporant coming up with a doc dead and a cop revealeed. Also this day is hardly a few days old and you're pushing for a lynch rather hard. I really don't see why you think it's so important to just lynch EnderX so quickly. Long days are better for the town.

[Foolster41]

I'm alive? Wow!

I investigated Stryker verde and got innocent

That leaves:
StrykkerVerde - innocent. Probibly Haze (lynch breaker)
Save The Dragons - Claimed 3rd mason. both fellow masons are now dead
Dragon Phoenix II replacing massive - claimed sunny.
Foolster41 - innocent. Cop. Duh.
Bamboomancer - ??. Sorry Can't find or remember claim

I can't help but think that Save the dragons could be a godfather in a mason group (this has happend a few times before, including my own bad sleep well mafia). I find it ususual that there are 3 masons, and actually when he claimed he didn't even mention the other mason who had died before.

Then again, why would a mafia knock off the others in a mason group, who are adding a sort of plasability. I'm still wondering why they didn't target me last night.

So one of the three we should go for is Save the dragons, Baboo and Dragon pheniox
I tend to beleive dragon pheniox's claim (unless someone counter claims him) since it's a fairly obvious one.

DP: Uh, you're the vig? I really have no idea. So that leaves STD and I say we lynch STD since he's as good as a townie now anyway.

vote: std

and if we're wrong, we lynch Baboo tommarow and win.

[Foolster41]

Bah. After the , I meant to say it leaves STD and baboomancer.

[Foolster41]

Ah, got you. Should have seen that.

In that case, a townie is a pretty easy role to claim, so maybe I'm not so sure about DP after all.

So the only one who are not cleared are Baboo, Save the dragons and dragon pheniox.

[Foolster41]

[sings]pheniox, phoenix.. let's call the whole thing oof![/sings]

Wow, I guess I'm being pretty talkative. Must be because I'm up late and bored.

If heatwave is the last one, then it's possible that the mod never had a "good" sun role, and "sunny" is a conceivable alternation on that.
I would REALLY like to hear the rest of baboo's role. "fog" I beleive was the claim.
if we could really get down to two people tonight, we could lynch one and garentee a victory as long as we are 100% SURE the person we clear is not scum, because the worst the mafia can do at this point is kill 1 person.

[Foolster41]

Vote Count
3 EnderX (BabyJesus, Dragon Phoenix, STD, Strykker)
1 STD (EnderX)
0 No Execution

Look who's the second to last vote. I'll follow though and

unvote:savethedragons

fos: Savethedragons

[Foolster41]

STD: This is logic. A common tell is where people are on bandwagons. Jeep says the 4th posistion has +10% of being scum, 5th posistion +15%. This is the 2nd to last and 3rd to last posistions for later days.

No one did something obvious, like voting vuridel while voting someone else.

Here is my breakdown of the posibilites of scum, using numbers from jeep, and more minor amouts for things not covered in the tells, but suspicious to me. I ignored the SK lynch because both sides wanted him dead anyway, and the mafia didn't know who he was anyway.

Massive/DP2: (17%)
*Last on wagon on me (+15%)
*on vuridel lynch (-2)
*on EnderX Lynch (+2)

Baboo: (12%)
Wishy washy (who to vote for? on vuredel) (+10)
Absent from wagon on me (+2)
Baboo is absent from the lynching of Vuridel (-2)
Baboo is absent from the lynching of enderx (+2)

STD: (17%)
*possibility of GF "unknown" role (+2)
*Possiblity of GF in mason as balancing factor to 3 masons (+5%)
*has posistion on bandwagon on me (+2%)
*2nd last on EnderX (+10%)
*Absent from Vuridel lynnch (-2)

So by a factor of about 2% I see STD as more suspicous, though DP2's posistion on the wagon on me makes me highly suspect DP as well.

[Foolster41]

Obviously Massive/DP's total should be 15% sorry.

[Foolster41]

If STD is nuterual and Stryker is the only mafia left, then we could have had a chance to win if we kept going, we would have had 1 scum, 1 nuterual and 1 town (probibly DP2). If we had figured out Stryker was scum, (33.33% chance) we would have won.

Good game.

[Foolster41]

There were two mafia at the end? Never mind about the chance of winning then!

I didn't think I sided with the mafia more than anyone else, though "drugged mafia" is still an apropriate award since I did absolutely nothing.

I agree that what killed the game is having 3 scum, a SK and a nuteral.
The nuteral gave a slight advantage to the scum, because of the unbalance he is likely to see the unbalance and join the mafia side.

Just taking out the 1 scum and maybe the nuteral would have made it a lot more fair. Normaly for this size game you have either 3 scum or 2 scum + SK.

Otherwise, it was a pretty well put together game.

I'm still curious why the scum picked off BJ the mason when they had an open shot at me.

[Foolster41]

UT: Be nice now.

I wasn't convinced by dP's claim. I don't think I said it, but I did think it was a strong possibility. You notice I wasn't in the baboo lynch, it happened before I could get online again.

Stryker: That was a good move, it threw me off completly. I wish now I had seen that possibility, since he did keep saying you were scum.

STD can't just "descide to go scum" can he? I figured when there was a majority one way or the other, STD joined that majority. So if we had killed DP and then Sryker then we would hav won by a small margin and STD would join our side.

[Foolster41]

UT: Be nice now.

I wasn't convinced by dP's claim. I don't think I said it, but I did think it was a strong possibility. You notice I wasn't in the baboo lynch, it happened before I could get online again.

Stryker: That was a good move, it threw me off completly. I wish now I had seen that possibility, since he did keep saying you were scum.

STD can't just "descide to go scum" can he? I figured when there was a majority one way or the other, STD joined that majority. So if we had killed DP and then Sryker then we would hav won by a small margin and STD would join our side.