227 - You Only Live Twice - Game Over!

[Seol]

However, I don't think that the strategy of lynching ? accounts leads to the result you suggest. The scum have to kill off an equal number of normals and ? so as to avoid detection - as they did last night. This is because the scum get 4 kills at night and the town gets only 2 lynches a day. So if we only lynched the ? accounts, and the scum only killed the normal accounts, we'd quickly get to the position where the only normal accounts left were scum.

Except, surely, if it was to the advantage of the scum to have even numbers of ??s and normals, if we lynch two ??s, they'll aim to kill one ?? and three normals. So the town can't control the balance of ??s-to-normals. The question is then - could it be to the advantage of the scum to have an imbalance?

We don't get any role revelation until both halves of someone are dead. Without role revelation, we have very little by way of information to go on. The best way of the scum minimising the information we have, therefore, is to support a "let's make one race extinct first" strategy. With 10 alive today, we could be dropped to just

four

?? accounts tomorrow if we're unlucky, and even then we're unlikely to eliminate all the ?? Mafia the following day. Then there's another night of probably at least one killing group getting double-kills, and we basically starting a mini from scratch except the scum have a huge headstart.

As the town, we want to split the kills, not localise them.

vote: Mr. Stoofer

[Seol]

bah. I hate signing in and out. Let's knock off all the ?? accounts and then none of us will have to worry about it.

That's the one element of Stoof's argument I do agree with. I've actually gone and forgotten the password for my ?Charlie? account, I can't log in to it at all.

[Seol]

I've actually gone and forgotten the password for my ?Charlie? account, I can't log in to it at all.

Smooth claim... ?

Oh wait, THAT'S why I can't log in to it - it's not my account at all!

[Seol]

Except, surely, if it was to the advantage of the scum to have even numbers of ??s and normals, if we lynch two ??s, they'll aim to kill one ?? and three normals. So the town can't control the balance of ??s-to-normals.

Come on Seol, think about it. How can the scum choose to kill 3 normals and 1 ? ?. Unless there is one kill group with 4 nightkills (unlikely) then there are 2 groups and they are not able to coordinate. The town can coordinate its lynchings and can influence the balance. And if there is a vig, then the town really can control balance.

True, they can't co-oridinate perfectly. It may be a couple of kills out, but it will tend towards that.

The question is then - could it be to the advantage of the scum to have an imbalance?

I can't think of any advantages at the moment. Can anyone else? I've suggested

FOUR

advantages to the town to Town in an imbalance (the 3 in my post 11 plus the fact that the surviving accounts in the minority group must be scum (my post 18 )).

Finger of Stupidity: everyone on my bandwagon who isn't scum

. The one thing that annoys me about this game is the way that, when you start a discussion going, people who don't agree with you vote for you. I wanted to discuss how the town might use the set-up of this game to its advantage -- and as a result I get bandwagonned. Do you really think that I am more likely to be scum that all those who haven't posted anything of substance?

Well, if I can think of reasons why scum might want to put forward the reasoning and arguments you've been putting forward, then yes - you should be bandwagonned. Anti-town substance is a good reason to lynch you.

[Seol]

FOS BrianMcQueso.

Your avatar-switch program is misleading and confusing!

[Seol]

It doesn't look like there's any claiming or voting strategy that helps us. So let's lynch ?Nameless One? and BrianMcQueso and see where that gets us.

I agree with the first part, at least for now, but - Why those two?

[Seol]

Vote: ?YouYou?

Trying to get someone lynched without voting yourself is a standard mafia tactic, since not being on the bandwagon will appear innocent if the person is lynched and turns out innocent.

She's* voting one of her nominees, and suggested ?Namelessone? first. Misrepresentation?

FOS: Flying Dutchman.

*: Meme connection, I think of ?YouYou? as female.

[Seol]

Each day there will be two lynches, they can both be from the same group if you guys wish. They will still require the majority of votes.

Does this mean we'll need 11 votes to lynch someone, end then once more before day ends? Or is it two times 6 votes?

I really hope it's 11 two times, because otherwise, assuming a 3-person mafia, scum can lynch somebody with their own votes and that would probably mean that the game is over before it even starts.

Two consecutive lynches, each of which require a majority.

I am also wondering -but this won't get an answer by the mod- since it seems that mafia has two nightkills, whether it will be like that for all the game or if it will go down to one after a certain number of them has died. Since the town has two lynches everyday, simmetry would suggest the former of the two, and that's pretty scary.

The impression I get is that there are two "separate" Mafias, one composed of, say, Meme, mathcam and Talitha, and the other of ?Meme?, ?mathcam? and ?Talitha?. Once all the normal or ?? Mafia are dead, then, their kill is gone.

[Seol]

Why are people waiting for me? Because I want to lynch ?Nameless One? and Brian McQueso?

We wanted your reasons for saying "let's lynch X" so early on day 1. Seemed a little... over-eager, to say the least.

Let's wait on BrianMcQueso and lynch ?Nameless One? then. Though I think Brian's discussion of mass claim wasn't very well thought out, I was mostly trying to think of a normal account that I didn't really like all that much.

See, there's a reason. Strikes me as a really poor one, but it's a reason at least. Can you tell us what was scummy about it? I'd rather lynch people for scummy behaviour than not having a total understanding of this new variant nobody's ever played before.

Oh, and what was your reason for saying we should lynch ?NamelessOne? as opposed to, for example, prodding him to post a little more?

Now, I'm somewhat more suspicious, since he has claimed either non-vanilla townie or scum. Maybe we should lynch him based on that.

Well, that's one way of spinning his postulation there's no townies. So he's not a PJV. How on earth does that justify lynching him? I mean, how is it even scummy?

I never suggested "speed-lynch," though.

You suggested lynching without giving a reason why. Speed is irrelevant, it was a random lynch you were asking for, near as dammit.

unvote, vote: ?YouYou?

.

I'm also still wondering if mass claim is a good idea. We'll probably figure out who some of us are anyway. Say that the scum really want to get ?Internet Stranger? out of the game. They've got a 2/7 chance of doing that during the night. We've got a 2/10 chance of doing that during the day. That's 28% vs. 20%. If we mass claim, we're on even ground, 100% and 100%.

I've worked out why mass claiming is bad. It's for the reasons Brian cited, except replace revelation on death with claiming. People will be bandwagonned to claims today, and if we've mass-claimed that's both halves of the role gone. People will have information roles which they'll want to claim, and if we've mass-claimed that's both halves of the role gone.

If we add in the fact that the scum (since they've got more heads together, and they've got fewer people to try to link together) are more likely to link two people, they're in way more control.

So let's make it as difficult as possible for them.

If there is any reason for us to want to eliminate someone completely, we should go ahead and mass claim. That said, I don't think there's a reason for us to want to eliminate either Commodore Amazing or ?Internet Stranger? completely. They've got a much higher chance of being clear than anyone else.

Well, not at this point. The only significant reason I can think of that we'd want to eliminate both halves of a role is if we have a reliable investigation result on them. The scum have a whole raft of reasons to get rid of both halves.

Firstly, it's one less pro-town head in the game to argue the town's side. Two separate halves are more useful to the town than both halves of a single role for that reason. Secondly, with any role that has any sort of information, it eliminates undisclosed information, as well as guaranteeing there won't be any more to come.

Why are we talking about mass claim day 1 anyway?

[Seol]

I'm just not much of a secondary account poster, ok? Only using secundary accounts for night actions seems like a much more feasible tactic to me than going to hunt lurkers..... It's quite a hassle logging on and off all the time.... If you all really want me to I'll go post content on this account, but I honestly don't see a reason as of yet. I'd rather keep this one quiet, as not to link it to my main.

The thing is, not posting from your secondary account

is

lurking, and all the usual anti-lurker arguments apply. Both the "link to the main" and "hassle logging in and out" are basically arguments defending that lurking. Plus, we need both sides active in order to get the vote-counts up to lynch.

Are you trying to argue that

everyone

should be using their primary accounts only?

And I'd really rather not lynch lurkers, it's rarely proven fruitful in my experience. So if there's pressure, it's pressure to post. Please post more. This doesn't just apply to you, but to all the lurky accounts - you know who you are.

I'll draw attention to the fact that you came out of the woodwork just as you were pressured for lurking, but I'd also say that due to the nature of this game that means less than usual.

[Seol]

unvote: ?YouYou?, vote: GreenLiquid

.

We've got a serious lurker problem here and for now I'm happy to just prod.

[Seol]

I still believe lynching ?YouYou? is the correct play here. he's publicly revealed his role, which can only hurt him... unless he's scum. Scum has no reason to fear revealing their other role. The claim is sketchy as well... well, it's not a real claim at all. I'm not sure why he's any

less

suspicious at this point. If we keep him around, there's the chance scum will leave him alone, making us even more suspicious of him tomorrow.

My vote stands.

?YouYou? hasn't revealed his role. He's revealed his counterpart. Big difference. Unless, that is, you think his role-related comments count as a claim, which I don't, but I'll agree it's subjective.

There's also a big difference between revealing it when one half is dead - as is the case here - and when the other half is still alive, which would put that other half in danger. I agree that counterpart-claiming is

generally

a bad idea.

Obviously, if someone else is Commodore, they should claim. Then we can be sure to lynch scum.

[Seol]

i doubt anyone would lie about their other half, because it is much too easy to get caught up in your lie. the other account just needs to sign on and disprove them.

Which is impossible in the Commodore case, because Commodore can't say anything any more. Commodore's the easiest fake claim to make... but I can't really see any benefit to it either. That doesn't mean I haven't missed something.

But it's moot, because if ?YouYou?

is

lying a counterclaim will catch him.

[Seol]

Sorry for the lurking...

Right now, I'd appreciate it if scum claimed so that I'll have someone to vote for.

Not much to comment on currently, nothing jumps out at me as scummy.

Pure fluff. "Oh sorry I've been lurking, um, I'll be back later". No unvote for you, good sir.

[Seol]

Vote: ?Purple Liquid?

There is only room for two liquids here, and you are not one of them.

And that's all he wrote. Sounds like it could be GreenLiquid to me.

unvote: Seol, vote: ?ClearLiquid?

. The scum killed esme and ?emse? We can return the favor by trying to knock out one of their accounts completely.

Not concrete, but we could do worse, I guess.

vote: ?ClearLiquid?

Mod

, what are the deadline lynch rules? I'd be happy lynching either Dranko or ?ClearLiquid? right now, but we really don't want to miss a lynch.

[Seol]

Guys, I'm sorry. I'm totally just not into this game like MoS so I was being a jerk, but I'm actually going to try and START playing.

Unless you guys just want to lynch me, thats cool too. I just don't want to feel like a jerk for ruining my brother's game, I'd actually rather be replaced, but at this point....

Yeah. Sorry guys. (Probably doesn't mean much.)

That's an encouraging mission statement. Looking forward to your contribution! Don't disappoint me...

...oh, and remember, you don't have long to prove yourself, clock ticking and that...

[Seol]

Mmm, sorry about that night 2 action. I figured that I was probably responsible for CA's death by copying Stoof, and therefore he was a killing role, so I played the odds and offed him. I knew there was a chance he was the vig, but I still think it was the right play.