Mafia 1010 - Perpetual MyLo - Game Over

[MagnaofIllusion]

/confirm

Well lots of things to think about strategy wise ....

For now I'll

VOTE: xRECK because I can.

[MagnaofIllusion]

We could try to further increase our chances by going no lynch, though, can't we?

While increasing the odds that scum as a whole can achieve an easier mislynch in future days (assuming they still get the kill)? No that seems very counter-productive since the scum’s Wincon is getting three Mis-lynches.

ITT Shadow Dancer demands real scumhunting before page one is over.

So what? Implicating that calling for scum-hunting is bad?

@ShadowDancer

– 25 his horrible. Your logic, as stated above, is far from flawless.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This Shadow Dancer wagon is increasingly more and more attractive, though I definitely dislike Lowell's vote on me as well.

Magna, seriously, WTF.

When should players ever like votes on them in a specifically Vanilla game?

It's called a question Reck. You generally answer them if you want to play in a non-random, un-capslocked Pro-Town manner.

[MagnaofIllusion]

/confirm

blue townie yesh

Forgot to point out earlier how much I hate this sort of stupid play.

LyLo is better for town than MyLo. Period. I won't follow any other logic when it comes to strategic choices. Not if I intend to play for my wincon, that is. If I can imrove my chances of victory from 24% to 34% (!), I'll definitely do that and not ask any one who is almost 50% guaranteed scum for permission.

First off this is a horrible Appeal to Statistics. Whether there is a better chance RANDOMLY selecting scum in MYLO or LYLO has little to do with how this game's mechanics operate. Attempting to produce MYLO when scum’s victory condition isn’t to kill till they have equality is counterproductive. Especially since scum can choose to respond with a No Kill if they chose nullifying your gambit. A higher lynch threshold means scum are more likely to have to wagon as a group to get their required three lynches.

Reck’s random lynch suggestion may have been bad but your continued insistence that attempting to force LYLO is the best play is far worse. Plus quite honestly you look worse for the wear in your debate with Reck.

UNVOTE: Reck
VOTE: ShadowDancer

On the other hand, Lowell and Magna (the first more than the latter) are giving me bad vibes. Lowell, motives for the vote please.

Didn’t you learn anything from Classic Mafia Exilon?

@EVERYONE ELSE

- Come out come out wherever you are ....

[MagnaofIllusion]

Seriously, if we mislynch D1 our chances of winning boil down to some mere 10% or something... I'd rather go no lynch two times than challenge that...

So you'd rather purposely lose the game than play in MYLO?

Insert Face-Palm Pic here ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

Along with lots of other stuff, but on to serious matters: what's that have to do with Lowell offering a contentless vote?

My comment has nothing to do with your comment on Lowell and everything to do with you ‘gut’ suspicion of me.

@Magma: no power role so why not?

What good does your claim do? It’s at best a Null tell. Nobody is going to claim scum

Hmmm... I think our problem is that in a vanilla MyLo no one trusts any one else... So we've got quote some panic reactions... Readinf those as town is maybe a good idea to go with D1.

Convenient that we should just look at reactions under pressure Day 1 as Town tells when you are under pressure. Scum have just as much reason to react that was as Town.

What do you guys think of a day 1 mass-roleclaim?

Look at me I’m creating a VI persona knowing that Town can’t afford to policy lynch!!!

Claim:Cop

WIFOM alert – look at me acting all random and stupid. No scum would be so foolish as to claim an non-existent role.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MoI: Before I answer any further accusations of yours I'd like you to go back to the post you're citing and understand what I really meant

You do realize people are fully capable of reading and making their own judgements as to motivation and subtext, correct? Your ‘I’m taking my ball and going home until you play the way I want’ attitude isn’t going to help things.

Since when can town not afford to policy lynch??? Especially if they get ahead (ie 2 scum lynches : 0 town lynches) a policy lynch is fine.

I’d rather continue to attempt to lynch scum and win the game in that situation. Town has a finite amount of lynches (between 3 and 5) to get 3 scum. Injecting the thought that we can ‘afford’ a lynch based on policy alone is stupid.

@Lowell

– Love the Sheeping at 100. And by love I mean detest.

@Thief

– Get your butt in here.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hmmm ... looking at the votecount I will

UNVOTE: Shadow Dancer

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thief, you are now the scummiest person in the game. What do you have to say?

The irony of one non-contributor calling out another makes my heart sing.

@BrianJ re 112

– So you produce a long and point laden paragraph stating why you think Shadow is scum. And then you advocate what amounts to a policy lynch for either Lowell or DP. This doesn’t exactly make me feel all warm and cozy.

@Magna: So you did not reread and try to understand what I actually said. Fine...

Incorrect. I have no trouble understanding what point you are attempting to make. I just find that it seems a little too self-serving to be something that says Town to me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Reck mentions my lack of posts, and immediately two quietish folks show up to cast votes. fos brian and david Interesting how that happens.

And you showing up and trying to throw suspicion on other lurkers isn’t scummy as all get out?

And why aren’t you FOSing Quoi or Thief who are just as quiet, if not more so, than those you mentioned.

VOTE: Lowell

Positioning of voters on a townie's wagon is a null tell.

Um how do you know that Shadow is town, and thus your position on his wagon is null?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Wow .. it doesn't take much to get your unhelpful CAPS LOCK persona to appear.

And for the record asking a question isn't strawmanning. But nice try throwing whatever WikiBuzzWordofTheDay is on your calendar.

Your defense of Lowell is noted. I like how you repeatedly say he is scummy but don’t bother to vote for him.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And huzzah, scum emerge to jump to join the Lowell bandwagon once it has started. Imagine my surprise. Unvote so I can put some thought into this and get some scum for you.

Not responding to the direct question that was posed regarding his FOS for some lurkers and not others? Check.

Meaningless mudslinging with nothing related to support? Check.

Huzzah ... classic scum-tastic response.

That IS strawmanning, because you're implying my argument about the wagon positioning was related to an actual in-game situation and NOT clearly about a hypothetical situation (as it actually was).

Yeah, that’s complete bullshit. Let’s review …

Thus I see your actions as clear attempt to be one of the first to be on a wagon to lynch a town. And that makes me think SD is town too, Exilon is being taken advantage of and Knight being your partner.

If you think this is theoretical discussion you are fooling yourself.

Positioning of voters on a townie's wagon is a null tell.

This is your direct response. So you are trying to say I’m straw-manning because you were discussing theoretical lynches? Why in the hell are you responding to an actual game comment with theory?

Yeah, your argument is busted. I know you aren’t stupid so why are you making obviously bad posts?

Lowell's too scummy to be scum.

Insert Facepalm pic of choice here ….

[MagnaofIllusion]

NPIAU says he thinks SD is town and Reck is being "scummy" for being the first on a town wagon;
Reck argues that that logic is flawed due to the fact that position of people on a townie's wagon is a null tell;
Magna asks how does Reck know SD is town so as to make Reck's position null.

It is in a way strawmanning, as the argument being discussed isn't that one. Reck is not arguing that SD is town, he's arguing NPIAU's point.

Can we finish this now?

1. Reck’s insistence that it’s a Null tell based on theory alone doesn’t refute NoPoint’s argument.
2. Why is Reck making an argument that is totally theory based as opposed to arguing that it’s not scummy because he’s wagoning Scum?

Because I was arguing from a theory standpoint. I wasn't arguing from the point of anyone being a townie/non-townie.

Why are you arguing from a theory standpoint when NoPoint was directly attacking your for ACTUAL events? Your argument isn’t scum-hunting just theory debate. As said above … why didn’t you argue that you were wagoning scum instead of Town?

Before it gets lost in the shuffle let’s examine this little exchange -

Now, the Lowell wagon I can support.

Lowell's too scummy to be scum.

What happens in the posts between 138 and 145 to precipitate this startling 180?

1. Another vote on Lowell.
2. Lowell posts fluff and begs to be unvoted so he can scum-hunt.

If voting Lowell was something he could support why didn’t he actually vote him? And why when Lowell gets another vote does he immediately chainsaw attack the voter (me) for voting the person whose wagon ‘he could support’? Self inconsistency = Reck gaining scum-points.

@Lowell

– Whenever you get around to ‘providing us some scum’ please answer the following question –

And why aren’t you FOSing Quoi or Thief who are just as quiet, if not more so, than those you mentioned.

@Quoi / Thief / Brianj / DP – Any of you who aren’t on V/LA better start posting stat.

Oh, and I'm going to be on every lurker waggon during D1! I don't think that's the final answer to the question how to deal with lurkers, but it will definitely discourage scum to try and lurk their way through D1. When in doubt, and since going LyLo is now impossible thanks to Max' stupid rules 6&7, let's lyncha lurker!

So in an environment where we can only afford two mislynches you want to immediately use one to encourage active scum? What criteria are you going to use to assess which of our 5 big lurkers (Lowell, Quoi, Thief, BrianJ, DP) should be the lynch?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Whoa, suddenly someone calls you out and you're like all on that person huh?

So you slapping down a suspicion before someone makes an intro post should prevent them from forming a scum-read on you?

They'll definitely try it when it's real LyLo, i.e. when scum has two kills. Chances for town to win are really bad then, any way, but there are counter strategies, though I don't really know how good they might work... I think we should defer this discussion until we really need it...

So why open an avenue of argument that you then say is better deferred until later on? What scum-hunting effect does it have?

I knew I recognized Lowell from somewhere. It's this game, where I was a part of a two goon + traitor scumteam. Lowell was the traitor, but we kept him alive the whole game because he was so goddamn scummy. Of course, this was because we were actually ABLE to get reads on him, because he posted a decent amount of content. Here, he seems to be lackadaisically floating through the pages, which is directly contradictory to his scum meta.

I see …meta. Good luck with that, as I generally feel it’s a ton of crap.

Magna's entire history so far seems to point to someone who wants to avoid wagons when they get too big. If the reck/SD debate in the 50s was actually a lot of nothing between townies, then scummagna makes a lot of sense. He wants both wagons to take off (they're both active and have enemies) but neither to be stuck to him should lynch arise. Even SD-as-scum fits with this profile, as magna's transition from voting SD to unvoting to then voting the leading alternative makes sense.

Love how your argument predicates on someone not being able to change their mind when they find someone else more scummy. Sorry, it’s not a scum-tell to pressure someone early then move on as more scummy candidates (like yourself) rear their ugly heads. Or as Reck put it I “changed my mind” on ShadowDancer. I can’t be well trying to support SD’s wagon if I jump off when scumtastic hoppers like you join in. Love the OMGUS though, nice touch.

@MoI- to answer your question, david and brian were the ones that jumped out of nowhere to vote me as soon as reck decided it would be cool. The timing is the scummy part. Quoi and whoever else are lurky, but not dangerous/reckless with their votes.

Just like you jumped out of nowhere onto ShadowDancer when he was under fire? Voting for you doesn’t make them inherently dangerous / reckless. And if you are Town why aren’t you more worried that Reck declared your wagon ‘cool’ while never voting for it?

Fortunately for you we do have time to waste on lurkers who push targets who are uninterested in defending themselves (read: easy targets) based off no reasoning.

Unvote:
Vote: Quoi

This vote and Quoi’s original vote for Thief are going to start a recursive Irony cascade that might threaten the fabric of the universe.

Note to self for later analysis.

– Lowell’s wagon tops out at five in previous vote-count when Quoi’s wagon takes off.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This vote feels iffy to me. Lowell's quoted post is crummy as hell, but Magna seems to be misinterpreting some of the points in order to deliberately support his point. Lowell fos was based on the fact that "two quietish folks [showed] up to cast votes", not because of them being a lurker. Thus his second sentence regarding Quoi or Thief is baseless. The sentence wasn't that hard to understand either, so I get the impression that he just made that question up to justify the vote.

Um, no. If Lowell was worried about “two quietish folks casting a vote” why wouldn’t he have problems with Thief and Lowell? They are both ‘quietish’ players who made a vote out of nowhere also. Lowell’s problem with them is that they voted for him. Approaching the situation from a Town perspective he should be worried about ANY players (like DP below, BTW) making votes out of the blue. A Town player might be more worried about votes that appear more wagoning but should be worried about all players with lurking profiles and unexplained vote. But Lowell is solely focused on those voting for him. A focus more on self-preservation (in discrediting the lurkers who jumped on him) than overall game impact shows a Scum perspective, IMO.

Oops, I'm here forgot to bookmark this thread.

Vote: Shadow Dancer

Your input … it is whelming.

All these WOTs give me headaches

Suck it up Princess. I’ve said before and I’ll say again – Reading is not a hardship.

There's no "too scummy to be scum"!

What is your opinion, then, of Reck stating that Lowell was just this – too scummy to be scum?

Sheesh, guys. I've explained why Thief is hurtful to the town. What have you all against me?

You are not a newb so this screams scummy gambit.

Since we are beset by a horde of lurkers I’ll follow along for the moment to see what reactions wagoning them elicits. For the record I’m more than happy to return to Lowell for a lynch.

UNVOTE: Lowell
VOTE: Quoi

[MagnaofIllusion]

overwhelming or underwhelming?

whelming ... as in not impressive at all.

And it took you exactly two minutes to respond to this? Active lurker I dub thee!

[MagnaofIllusion]

But seriously, DavidPaker quasi just told us directly to our faces: "See, I am a Lurker!" (and his few posts are helpful only to him - to avoid prods). Has any one played with him before? Is he a troll or something?

My only experience with David was the mini Disgaea 2. He replaced out early Day 1. Looking at his post history he seems like a player more comfortable in the Road to Rome. His posts outside of RtR say to me that he isn’t comfortable with the level of scrutiny or competition. This, of course, is simply IMO and you can make your own judgement.

@magna: Haven't we played a maraton game together with Quoi? I think he was as useless there as he is here, if I remember right?

We did play in a UPick TV themed Marathon with Quoi on Moving Day. He replaced in to a Mafia slot and pretty much lurked is my recollection. I think NoPoint was also in that game but got lynched early. Not sure how behavior in a Marathon style game in any way a good match for the normal environment.

I don't like lynching scum just because of lurking.

I hate mislynching because of VI anti town lurkers even more.
And I'd definitely like to leave the state of prod voting lurkers already.

Explain how the bolded sentence makes any sense from a Pro-Town mindset. I understand the second sentence but Town should like to lynch Scum regardless of the reason. Also, please tell my how you reconcile the last sentence with this post –

Oh, and I'm going to be on every lurker waggon during D1! I don't think that's the final answer to the question how to deal with lurkers, but it will definitely discourage scum to try and lurk their way through D1. When in doubt, and since going LyLo is now impossible thanks to Max' stupid rules 6&7, let's lyncha lurker!

In your words: Mafia wants - needs - to blend in as town - they just won't do it! Not now, at least. Period.

And your statement certainly wouldn’t induce them to go the opposite way at all [/off sarcasm].

I'm mildly irked by Magma pushing the argument that Reck knows SD is town. I thought it was clear he was referring to theory at the time and it seems like a stretch to see it otherwise.

You are mildly irked? Care to actually commit to a position. If you think it is scummy say so. This sort of back-handed insinuation isn’t the sign of a Town mindset. For the record – questioning Reck on why he attacked NoPoint’s assertion from a theoretical position as opposed to an actual in-game position is not scummy.

Considering what I've seen since, I'd rank them something like this:
{Magma, (Exilon, Reckoner), Lowell, mole}

Why has your vote gone anywhere but me if I’m at the top of your scum list? It reads to me as scum trying to establish a false link to me if he ever does flip. I don’t like that at all.

FOS – destructor

@Quoi

- Are you hoping to lurk away the votes on you as opposed to contributing?

Exilon’s 228 in regards to Thief and the other lurkers is spot on.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Lowell doesn't try harder ...

And it is interesting that Lowell's wagon stalled at five votes while Quoi's did not. I will re-read later.

I'd also suggest, to prevent more quick-lynch shenanigans, that we use FOS-es in place of votes until we reach the required lynch number. This way we have time to discuss who arrives on wagons and when as opposed to the crap like BrianJ pulled.

FOS - Lowell

[MagnaofIllusion]

Call this WIFOM if you wish, but there's no way a scum wagon happens in lynch or lose with this much agreement among players. Pro tip: if it's easy, it isn't right.

Pro-Tip – 3 votes hardly qualifies as overwhelming agreement. Nice fear-mongering BTW.

So if I vote someone else that would impress you? Your argument is still weak.

Why as Town do you have any reason to not be voting today for one of those you say is scummy. Even if you believe in my FOS plan (and given no-one has said anything about it I doubt you do) you should have your suspicions logged somewhere.

The only reason I can see for not voting is that you are wanting to limit your vote-trail for analysis purposes.

FTR, brian's attack on me put me at L-2 if I recall correctly, pushing me closer to a lynch.

This is what seals the vote for me. You are ABSOLUTELY incorrect in this opinion. Seriously, did you think no-one would check?

MAX’S VOTE COUNTS –

Lowell - (Destructor)
Lowell - 3 (Destructor, BrianJ, David Parker)
Lowell - 5 (Destructor, BrianJ, David Parker, MagnaofIllusion, nopointinactingup)
Lowell - 4 (Destructor, DavidParker, MagnaofIllusion, nopointinactingup)

BrianJ is functionally the second vote on you. NoPoint (now Rena) was the vote that pushed you to L-2. Also note that BrianJ is the first to jump off the bandwagon when it got high.

VOTE: Lowell

Lurkers afraid to take a position: (Shadow Dancer)

You do know he’s V/LA until the 7th, right?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Day 1 Vote Count – Because I Can.

Those in blue are confirmed Town. Those in red are confirmed Scum. Also, I’ve universally replaced current players with their predecessors for this purpose.

xRECKONERx (Shadow Dancer, MagnaofIllusion, Lowell)
Shadow Dancer (Exilon, xRECKONERx, KnightofZero)
Molestar (Korashk)
Lowell (Rena)

Not Voted (

BrianJ

,

Quoi

)
Not Voted, Nor Posted, Nor PMed Me (David Parker, Thief)
--
Shadow Dancer (Exilon, xRECKONERx, Molestar, MagnaofIllusion, Lowell)
xRECKONERx (Shadow Dancer, Korashk)
Lowell (Rena)

Not Voted (

BrianJ,

David Parker,

Quoi

)
Not Voted, Nor Posted, Nor PMed Me (Thief)
--
Shadow Dancer - 4 (Exilon, xRECKONERx, Molestar, Lowell)
Lowell - 3 (Rena,

BrianJ

, David Parker)
xRECKONERx - 2 (Shadow Dancer, Korashk)
nopointactingup - 1 (Thief)
Thief - 1 (

Quoi

)

Not Voted (MagnaofIllusion)
--
Lowell - 5 (Rena,

BrianJ

, David Parker, MagnaofIllusion, Korashk)
Shadow Dancer - 2 (Exilon, molestargazer)
Magnaofillusion - 2 (xRECKONERx, Lowell)

Quoi

- 1 (Thief)
Thief - 1 (

Quoi

)

Not Voted (Shadow Dancer)
--
Lowell - 4 (Rena, DavidParker, MagnaofIllusion, Korashk)

Quoi

- 3 (Thief, Exilon, xRECKONERx)
Shadow Dancer - 1 (molestargazer)
Magnaofillusion - 1 (Lowell)
Thief - 1 (

Quoi

)
DavidParker - 1 (Shadow Dancer)

Not Voted (

BrianJ

)
--
Lowell - 3 (Rena, MagnaofIllusion, Korashk)

Quoi

- 3 (Thief, Exilon, xRECKONERx)
Shadow Dancer - 2 (molestargazer, DavidParker)
Magnaofillusion - 1 (Lowell)
Thief - 1 (

Quoi

)
DavidParker - 1 (Shadow Dancer)

Not Voted (

BrianJ

)
--

Quoi

- 7 (Thief, Exilon, xRECKONERx, MagnaofIllusion, molestargazer, Lowell,

brianj

)
Exilon - 1 (Rena, DavidParker)
Lowell - 1 (Korashk)
Thief - 1 (

Quoi

)
DavidParker - 1 (Shadow Dancer)

[MagnaofIllusion]

But Magna … what does it mean?

Well unfortunately it doesn’t add up to anything significant yet. Vote count analysis tends to be more powerful the further into the game you go. On the up side with guaranteed Two scum revealed going into Day 3 it will have more teeth than usual at that point.

Things that are on my mind looking this over –

From Vote Count 2 –

Shadow Dancer (Exilon, xRECKONERx, molestargazer, MagnaofIllusion, Lowell)

Shadow Dancer reaches an early L-2. Players of unknown alignment not on the wagon – Korask, Rena, David Parker. I’m liking those three more as Town for the following reason –

Brianj was sitting with an idle vote. It’s proven scum would quickhammer if they could since they can sacrifice the hammer-bearer. The fact that none of the three listed moved Shadow to L-1 makes me more confident they are Town if Shadow is Town.

Inherently if Shadow is Town everyone on the wagon gets a closer look – Exilon, xReck, molestar and Lowell.

From Vote Count 4 –

Lowell - 5 (Rena, BrianJ, David Parker, MagnaofIllusion, Korashk)

Lowell gets to L-2. Also of note – all three who didn’t put Shadow Dancer at L-1 are all on this wagon (Rena, DP and Korashk). Players of unknown alignment not on the wagon – Exilon, molestargazer, Reck, Thief, ShadowDancer. Since I’m inclined to think Lowell is scum I’m looking more closely at that group, especially those on Shadow Dancer’s early L-2 (Exilon, molestar and Reck)

From Final Vote Count –

Quoi - 7 (Thief, Exilon, xRECKONERx, MagnaofIllusion, molestargazer, Lowell, brianj)

Players of unknown alignment not on wagon (and thus could have hammered in place of brianj) – Rena, DP, Korahk, Shadow Dancer

Players of unknown alignment on Quoi but not Lowell at L-2 – Thief, Exilon
Players of unknown alignment on Quoi but not ShadowDancer at L-2 – Thief

All in all Exilon’s name keeps popping up in places I’m not fond of. Of course much of this information keys on whether Lowell or ShadowDancer are Scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I hadn't considered the scum hammer/suicide plan. I don't remember if anyone else got to L-1 yesterday, but if so that might be a good place to start.

Why didn’t you bother to look into this yourself?

ATM I'm being accused of being scum BECAUSE scum voted me. So if anything scum have every reason to continue to string up townies without fear.

Nice straw-man as Rena noted. You are being voted for any number of other reasons. Your scummy play Day 1. Your position on Quoi’s wagon. Your inability to scum-hunt. Your horrible arguments regarding brianj’s position on your Day 1 wagon.

IF we run him up to L1 we'll probably have another scumquicklynch unless he's actualy scum.
...This is too WIFOM, let's just avoid that risk.

Then either FOS or just vote elsewhere. Setting here and doing nothing (which is what you are doing today) is useless to Town.

This wagon is picking up speed far too quickly for my liking. Will go through it properly soon.

And yet you really aren’t making any move to find an alternate candidate you find scummy and voting for them. Please elaborate on how 3 votes is a wagon “picking up speed far too quickly”.

@mole and Exilon

– Neither of you were on the Lowell wagon Day 1. Do you not find him scummy?

[MagnaofIllusion]

My quick prediction -

Now that people have started jumping of scum-Lowell's wagon alternate one will form on an easy target who turns out to be Town.

Anyone who isn't scum - keep a close eye on how votes flow from this post forward.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because I 'am' on the Lowell wagon.

No, you aren’t. Saying you support something without actually voting isn’t being on a wagon.

Saying you don’t want the Day to end so soon while doing ZERO scum-hunting for Lowell’s partners is scummy.

DP has a playstyle? Am I missing something?

Yeah, you are missing the Town mindset. You aren’t scum-hunting today, you aren’t voting for your ‘top candidate’, and you are whining about the day potentially ending while doing nothing constructive with the time.

FOS –Exilon

I’m calling you scum with Lowell at this point.

1. Your play has changed radically Day1 to Day2.
2. You appear in too many scummy places on my vote review.
3. Your ‘support’ of the wagon on Lowell without a vote is classic scum play.

2. Good job targeting all the lurkers there. Which is also a probability thing as Reck mentioned.

Classic mis-rep. Saying one person out of a group is scum isn’t targeting the whole group.

Not particularly, no. I've not paid that much attention, but it seemed just like typical lowell, which isn't lynchworthy.

So scummy play is his norm which makes him not lynchworthy. Got it.

Mole is probably scum though.

Potential distancing noted.

And doesn't anyone find it off that Lowell has reached L-2 TWICE and yet has escaped from the noose both times?

Very true. Especially since the first person who bailed on his Day 1 wagon was BrianJ, scum.

And look – Lowell is lurking out the pressure. Nice.

@MOD – I’ll be LA from today at 4pm EDT until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

xRx is a very aggressive player with an abrasive personality. This, to me, suggests that he is town. Mafia would likely tone down the abrasiveness in an attempt to not "rub others the wrong way."

First of all your theory that Mafia would act in some way is WIFOM. Every player acts in their own individual manner.

Second if you don’t know Reck his play here is very subdued compared to how he usually acts.

His play being generally 'scummy' (in your opinion) doesn't influence his chance of being scum in this game.

Nice mis-rep. I feel his play here, in this specific game, is scummy. Thus I am calling him scum. I don’t particularly care if his meta is scummy or not. I don’t let meta run my game.

Really? If I vote him, then we'll be at a danger of a quicklynch-ends day, which is not what I want. So I 'AM' (

did you ntoice the '' ? Guess not.

) in his wagon. What is there to scumhunt? My main suspicion is not around, join that with my other suspects and I pretty much have the whole scum team nailed down already. Of course my attitude changed, people only need to scumhunt when they have to look for scum, and at this point, I've searched enough. (Also blame real life stuff for the slight lack of participation.).

If you truly believed that you had the whole scum-team nailed down and that Lowell is not even your top suspect why aren’t you voting that person (who I assume to be Shadow)? If I was certain I’d found the whole 4 player scum-team I’d be posting their usernames in bold font once a page making sure everyone saw it. Or at least I would if I was Town.

Can you elaborate on what exactly the bolded portion of your statement is supposed to mean? I’ve read it 5 times and can’t make heads or tails of what you are saying.

Why would be not voting for my top candidate scummy? That simply does not make sense. And I'm not whining, I only stated that fact once. But do keep blowing things out of proportion, it makes your argument look amazing.

When you object to voting Lowell on the basis of ending the day early, then state that someone else is your top suspect and fail to vote for them it is indeed scummy. The only harm in moving your vote from Shadow to Lowell after Shadow’s return would be in leaving a clear voting trail. Only scum worry about that in this game. Yes, not being on record with a vote the entire day is scummy.

SD is scum.
Lowell is scum.
DavidParker is scum.
BrianJ was scum.

We need three scum caught to win out of five. They're all there. Wanna prove me wrong? Go ahead. What scumhunting is left to be done?

You say we need to catch 3 of 5 scum, then list 4 players and say “They’re all there”. 4 does not equal 5.

I think finding out who your two remaining partners (Lowell and yourself being the first 2 of 4) is a priority.

@MOD – if I’m missing this I will apologize – can we get a confirmation of the deadline for today?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Cause we're not lynching Shadow today, we're lynching Lowell. And I also don't like to analyze voting paterns, this being one of the reasons and the other cause I don't really see those patterns. For me, having a vote on SD or not won't change anything. I'm talking about the air-quotes " ". "am" =/= am. I meant that even though I'm not voting Lowell for reasons stated, I "am" on Lowell's wagon.

I’m all for lynching Lowell (obv) but its not decided what we are doing until someone hits the lynch threshold.

Your like or dislike of vote pattern analysis really doesn’t have any effect on whether I find them useful. I do. The fact that you were acting in a manner that looks like purposeful avoidance of voting is scummy in my eyes.

4 equals 3 plus one.
My argument still stands.
kthxbai.

Then quite frankly your argument is stupid. You said you found all the scum. 4 scum is not all the scum. And I’m whelmed by your ‘case’ on those scum who are not Lowell or brianj. I guess I could work a classic 'setting up lynches' scum-tell argument here but I think that's overkill.

Vote: Shadow
AND YET NOTHING HAS CHANGED, HOW GREAT IS THIS HUH.
I think it is my turn to say "have you not learned anything from classic mafia"? Remember why I was dubbed scummy?

Yes something has changed. You were goaded into making a vote. The significance of that remains to be fully realized.

I remember clearly Classic Mafia. Go back and re-read your play there and tell me if it has any close resemblance at all to your play Day 2 here.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Then quite frankly your argument is stupid. You said you found all the scum. 4 scum is not all the scum.

It kind of is. Remember how they killed one of their own.

Yep, but his list of 4 includes brianJ, who was said Betrayal.

Channeling Spyrex now ...

Reading is tech!

[MagnaofIllusion]

I told everyone who's scum. I asked you to prove me wrong. Yet you're doing nothing of the sort.

If I'm town and you're town, then we're supposed to be working toghether. So if you don't think they're scum, tell me why and we can discuss it. If you do think they're scum, then what are you complaining about?

Emphasis added.

The bold portion is a flawed argument. You’ve simply said players A,B, and C are scum and we are to prove they are not. Untrue. The burden of proof is on you to prove why you think the players are scum. You haven’t today laid out anything of a case on said players. /inbeforeExilonwhinesaboutwaitingforSDagain.

I don’t think outright either SD or DP are scum based on my vote analysis earlier.

1. I think Lowell is scum for the multitude or reasons I stated today.
2. The Day 1 wagon formed on Lowell as an alternate to ShadowDancer.
3. Shadow was not on Quoi’s lynch.
4. The only wagon of size DP was on Day 1 was Lowell.

These lead me to the conclusion that DP and Shadow are more likely Town than Scum.

Back and will catch up soon. David's eagerness to lynch me with the "see if he's scum" reads horribly.

Here’s what you missed – Shadow is still missing, you are still obvScum, and we are watching your partners squirm in deciding how they can get away with not voting you / attempting to make an alternate wagon without outing themselves.

And DP’s statement actually reads fine when you consider that pretty much immediately your wagon hopped right down to L-2.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm back. Catching uop tomorrow.

Still waiting for you catch-up post.

I'll accept your decision to not include meta, but in this particular exmaple, I will. How have I made a misrep?

Unless you can show that Lowell has a scum meta that significantly departs from his Town meta your statement that ‘this is normal Lowell’ doesn’t provide solid evidence that he can’t be scum. Relying on a perceived ‘scummy’ Town meta holds no weight if his Mafia meta isn’t demonstrably different.

It’s a mis-rep because the crux of your argument it that I was relying on meta to attack Lowell. Never the case. I was relying on his scumtastic play in this thread.

Deadline is coming up – let’s just end Lowell-scum’s misery and finish him!

[MagnaofIllusion]

I was never even talking about your attack - I was stating my reasons as to why I wasn't voting for him at the time. Since that was the original question I was answering.

Please demonstrate in the following quote how you are not referencing my play –

His play being generally 'scummy' (in your opinion) doesn't influence his chance of being scum in this game.

This is where the mis-rep occurs. You say his play being generally scummy IN MY OPINION doesn’t influence his chances of being scum.

1. It does influence his chances as I feel his scummy play indicate he is scum.
2. I’m not relying on meta in my attacks. Your quote infers that I am.

Burden of proof is on you - if you're using this to try and lynch him, you have to provide the evidence.

Funny you should say this. You’ve yet to provide meta evidence that proves that he plays differently as Mafia. So your suggestion that he isn’t lynch worth for his scummy play is just as invalid as Thief’s since you aren’t backing it up.

[MagnaofIllusion]

No, it doesn't. My point is that using meta, him playing 'scummily' does not prove him scum in this game since he always plays like that - and he always plays the same whether he's scum or town.

This is exactly why your use of meta to absolve him is flawed. If he plays the same way regardless of alignment the solution is not to say ‘he’s not scum’. Sorry, that’s poor logic. If his ‘meta’ (which for the record once again I find as the weakest possible evidence) says he plays the same both ways you have to throw any meta reasoning out and look at him in the context of the game.

His playstyle is very similar whether he's scum or town. Whether you agree with me or not, I don't think that his playstyle so far makes him scum.

We disagree then. I think his play in this game (not his playstyle) makes him scum.

magna's 293 rubs me the wrong way as well. He uses votecounts to link brian with me. He uses it despite the obvious WIFOM problem.

Scum are in many cases more likely to avoid town-wagons, particularly if they're on early and seen to be driving it. That brian voted quoi could be an indication that he felt it was "safe" in that his other teammates were protected, whereas they would not have been had the wagon on me survived.

Magna bascially ignores this possibility, making me think the quoi/brian lynch was a scum plan. I think it's just as likely there were some scum off the quoi wagon as on it.

Bolded for emphasis. That you attack my analysis as WIFOM and use the bolded pure WIFOM as evidence is funny. The whole root of your problem with your argument is that you are approaching this game as if it was a normal Mafia game. It’s not. Scum HAVE to vote on a Town wagon to get a mislynch. Fact. So ascribing normal Mafia play Scum behaviour (3 scum in a 12 person game) to this variant game (originally 5 scum in a 12 person game) is flawed and incorrect.

You can cry WIFOM all you want and build ‘House of Cards’ style arguments all you want but I think it’s far more reasonable that brianj tried an early distancing move by voting for you and jumped when the pressure increased. If you were Town he would have had little motivation to jump off you when the pressure got high (L-2).

david and ex are likely scum but only exi and magna get the FoS??

I'm guessing magna is your scum buddy maybe and this is your way doing some scum hunting to seem town-like.

What you should be noticing is that out of the blue Lowell’s focus is on Exilon.

The player who is ‘On’ Lowell’s wagon but keeps crying ‘Don’t end the day quick’. Depsite the fact that we are within (before the replacement) 2 days of deadline.

Lowell’s sudden FOS of Exilon

SCREAMS

of late distancing given all the links I have pointed out today.

MORE LOWELL VOTES ASAP.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I suppose Lowell's my scumbuddy as well, right?

Pretty much this.

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Wicked

– From reading your posts at 389 and 395 it appears you are caught up. I don’t see any reason for you to have an inactive vote this late in the day if that is true. Please give us a summary of your thoughts and a vote please.

At the time, I didn't have one. Do I need to have suspicions to believe a wagon is going too quickly?

Logically if you really believe the wagon is going too quickly you are of the opinion that it is scum driven. Thus your pool of ‘suspicions’ is right in front of you. That you are saying you didn’t have any is suspect.

@MOD

– Any word on Exilon’s replacement? And could you include the current working deadline in your vote-counts please?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@Reck -

Feel free to pop in and move your vote back to obv-scum Lowell. I know, despite your V/LA, you are around even if it is briefly. It doesn't take long to simply unvote / vote. Do it!!!

@ShadowDancer

- Still too sick to post?

[MagnaofIllusion]

My vote isn't moving from Lowell. He's scum who needs to hang.

@MOD - I'll be LA from 4pm EDT today until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

[MagnaofIllusion]

My message to all Town players -

If anyone but Lowell is lynched today and flips Town look VERY carefully at the make-up of the Lowell counterwagon. A good number of scum will be found there in this circumstance.

[MagnaofIllusion]

My message to all town players-

Ignore magma. Because he's willing to "bet it all" on my scumminess doesn't mean anything. We saw brian take a dive yesterday, so it's just as likely magma's doing the same.

In other news, I'm in the process of moving, so my internet access will be light until I can get internet hooked up at my new place (hopefully next week). If you need to replace me, do so, but I'd prefer to continue and will try to at least check in as often as possible.

The lulz. Nice Appeal to Fear with that 'willing to bet it all' line. Classic scum panic move.

And attempting to link me to brianj's play shows what little ability you have to make a logical argument. Brianj lurked and hammered Town at first chance he got. I on the other hand have had my vote on you all day long. So as usual from you - FAIL ARGUMENT.

More votes on obvscum Lowell please.

[MagnaofIllusion]

We can sort out Exilon tomorrow Shadow.

Just vote Lowell so we can put one in the Town column.

[MagnaofIllusion]

First of congratulations to the scum-team. Good win.

I had asked Max to confirm to me who was scum when I died N2 so I knew that Town pretty much lost it Day 3 when nobody went after Ani. Exilon was so obvscum (as I pointed out in our Day 2 interactions) that I regret the 'we settle him tomorrow' comment. I should have said 'we'll lynch him tomorrow'.

Overall I was most impressed with Wicked's performance as Town and Rena's as scum. Wicked if you hadn't deviated from your initial scum-reads Day 3 Town might have pulled it out. I told Max when he informed me of the remaining scum team that Rena was the only one I wasn't suspicious of in the least.

Town overall played a pretty meh game. Too much bandwagoning without looking at motive / voting patterns / interactions after I took my dirt nap. MSG I'm still scratching my head as to why you were so willing to defend Lowell on a meta basis.

As to changes I would not add power-roles to Town as IMO that defeats the charm of the set-up. It's basically mountainous with the advantage that we get confirmed scum every day. In this set-up VC analysis is much stronger much earlier (notice the only scum that didn't appear in bad place in my Day 1 analysis was Rena).

Balancing mechanics that you might consider would be restrictions on who the Mafia can sacrifice. For example, you might restrict it so the Mafia can't sacrifice someone who is the hammer vote on a lynch. Or that the Mafia must sacrifice someone off the lynch wagon before someone on it. Something along these lines would mitigate scum's huge numbers advantage and make things a little more balanced.

I'd second the request for the scum QT.