Mafia 1010 - Perpetual MyLo - Game Over

[Lowell]

/confirm,

vote reck

@destruct- I don't lurk when I'm actually needed. And it appears I'm needed.

[Lowell]

unvote, vote dancer

, the question about the game mechanics seemed scummy back on whatever page, as does his need to control things.

[Lowell]

Reck mentions my lack of posts, and immediately two quietish folks show up to cast votes.

fos brian and david

Interesting how that happens.

David just looks lazy, and brians post looks like someone trying to overexplain a simple idea (vote lurkers, wake them up). I receive enough votes to know when someone is casting it with a guilty conscience.

[Lowell]

And huzzah, scum emerge to jump to join the Lowell bandwagon once it has started. Imagine my surprise. Unvote so I can put some thought into this and get some scum for you.

[Lowell]

Caught up. Some thoughts:

20- reck suggests 'random lynching' [+, not terrible]
31- SD votes reck for being "sure" exilon is town [-, weak]
36- SD asks rules question [-]
41- destructor asks us to be "careful" b/c only two town are needed for mislynch [-, something offputting about this comment]
46- reck leads w/ 4 votes, SD has 3
50s- SD and reck show
64- magna moves from reck to shadow
69- nopoint joins reck wagon
88- more throwaway comments from SD [-]
100- lowell votes SD
105- magna unvotes SD
112- brian votes lowell for bandwagon hopping [-, two votes?]
116- david votes lowell [-, more parotting]
129- SD leads w/ 4 votes, lowell w/ 3
137- SD votes lowell
141- magna votes lowell [-, dodging SD]
154- nopoint votes lowell
155- mole votes SD

unvote, vote magna

fos SD

SD is a fine lynch, but probably not as good as magna. 64 looks a lot like protecting reck from lynch by jumping on the leading alternative (SD). Notably, when SD then got closer to lynch (my 100), magna immediately jumps off AGAIN and votes.... no one. When another wagon starts to rival SD (lowell), he jumps on that to push it as well.

Magna's entire history so far seems to point to someone who wants to avoid wagons when they get too big. If the reck/SD debate in the 50s was actually a lot of nothing between townies, then scummagna makes a lot of sense. He wants both wagons to take off (they're both active and have enemies) but neither to be stuck to him should lynch arise. Even SD-as-scum fits with this profile, as magna's transition from voting SD to unvoting to then voting the leading alternative makes sense.

[Lowell]

@MoI- to answer your question, david and brian were the ones that jumped out of nowhere to vote me as soon as reck decided it would be cool. The timing is the scummy part. Quoi and whoever else are lurky, but not dangerous/reckless with their votes.

[Lowell]

Also I think david's voting Shadow and not me.

[Lowell]

Lurking is really obnoxious in this game.

unvote, vote quoi

. destructor and david trying to push an alternate lurker-wagon sold me. Especially the way destructor just dismisses the quoi-wagon as "good enough" at lynch -2, then picks another lurker-target to vote instead. I'd say this will be a three-for-one deal if quoi flips scum.

This may be lynch-1 if I counted correctly, if that doesnt' wake him up I don't know what will.

[Lowell]

Either that or the most awesome scum-gambit ever.

I hadn't considered the scum hammer/suicide plan. I don't remember if anyone else got to L-1 yesterday, but if so that might be a good place to start.

[Lowell]

Uh, strange how easily folks agreed to that.

[Lowell]

I'll give a proper defense when one is needed. It's not clear how you get brian's attacking me to mean that I'm scum. Particularly in a game in which scum have no real reason to bus, it's even

less

sensible to assume that anyone scum attacks is also scum.

FTR, brian's attack on me put me at L-2 if I recall correctly, pushing me closer to a lynch. Generally scum want to be first on a bussing wagon (or maybe hammer), but rarely do they want to be the impetus behind giving the wagon real legs. Brian was attacking me because he wanted me dead, because that's what scum do. I'll give rena the benefit of the doubt, but david, reck and thef in particular look like opportunists.

[Lowell]

I'll give a proper defense when one is needed.

In other words, run him up to L-1 and he actually might start doing something.

Lowell, you think david, reck, and thief seemed like opportunists. Explain (as in, give specific examples).

I'm referring to

this

example. david yesterday jumped on my bandwagon as soon as it formed, and today followed you when you said we should lynch lowell. Basically I see a lot of people coming to a consensus too easily. Call this WIFOM if you wish, but there's no way a scum wagon happens in lynch or lose with this much agreement among players. Pro tip: if it's easy, it isn't right.

I'd support a wagon on any of these players.

[Lowell]

So if I vote someone else that would impress you? Your argument is still weak.

[Lowell]

I'm not trying to limit my vote trail (whatever that means). Votes WIFOM themselves away all the time anyway. ATM I'm being accused of being scum BECAUSE scum voted me. So if anything scum have every reason to continue to string up townies without fear.

vote david

. He sat aimlessly on my wagon yesterday, then woke up today saying how cool it would be to vote me. This is what I mean by scum following the easy bandwagon. I'd vote for thief as well.

[Lowell]

We're lynching Lowell today.

Vote: Lowell

Reasons:
1) Brian's attack on him reads more like distancing than anything.
2) ISO 4 is a whole lot of noise that doesn't really justify the Magna vote at all.
3) ISO 8 reads like scum trying to make Reck doubt his read on me...
4) The "lurking is obnoxious in this game" comment is hypocritical.
5) The Lowell/brian votes seemed like a quickhammer to me.
6) Lowell is impossible to read as scum or town, so if we're going to lynch him, we really should do it now.

1) To answer your last post, my sense is the first argument is the one getting the most traction, since the case on me came after the reaveal on brian. It's the only thing that changed from yesterday. Again, brian voting me doesn't make me scum... it's just a WIFOM puzzle to look at however you want. Scum voted me, therefore I'm town. Scum voted me, therefore it's distancing. IMO in a game with such heavy scum presence and in which they can drop one of their own whenever they successfully lynch anyway, distancing is less likely because it's far less useful. But yes, possible. To the others:

2) I don't need much impetus to make a vote, particularly an early one. Those withholding votes are (as you say) generally the ones with something to hide.
3) I don't understand this one. Basically I'm inclined to agree that the destructor-beyond-the-grave post makes you look town. But I'm not willing to necessarily bank on it 100%.
4) Hypocritical maybe. It's annoying this game because if scum see someone lurking, they can pretty much just run out the clock if they feel like it. So yes it matters that I'm here.
5) Someone has to put the lynch-1 vote down. He seemed scummy to me to I made the vote... it's not clear how we can ever win if no one is willing to do so. But I admit I didn't think about the lynch-1 problem at the time.
6) Lazy-ass reason. Basically you're arguing for a policy lynch, which is both annoying to me personally and scummy, as it gives all sorts of cover for lazy votes.

[Lowell]

Back and will catch up soon. David's eagerness to lynch me with the "see if he's scum" reads horribly.

[Lowell]

So, basically, you jumped on the case founded on me voting someone to L-1, and in the process declare how awesome it is to put someone at L-1.

[Lowell]

Here's a runthrough of D2 thusfar. The post-numbered part is optional:

257- david says it's "no surprise" [-, didn't mention this beforehand]
259- rena summons destructor's last thoughts
260- reck declares him town
262- rena votes lowell for myriad of reasons
264- david agrees, does nothing
266- thief votes lowell
271- magna suggests FOSs to stop D1-type ending [+, good idea]
274- ex 'approves' of lowell-wagon [-, trying not to draw attention but seeking popular lynch]
276- reck votes lowell
285- lowell leads w/ 3 votes
287- magna votes lowell for brian's wagon-jumping
291- lowell responds
293- magna uses votecounts to support lowell case [-, very WIFOM and easily interpretable the other way]
298- ex FOSs lowell, declares intent to vote as needed [-, looks like scum coordination]
299- david votes lowell, to 'find out' [-, ditto]
300- lowell leads w/ 5 votes
301- reck unvotes
310s- reck/mole fight
332- ex votes shadow
333- mole votes thief
347- david explains WIFOM [-, nothing to be gained here, still looks like coaching]
359- mole meta-defends lowell via repeated backhanded compliments

A couple things:

david

and

ex

are likely scum. Posts 298 and 299 read a lot like scum setting up for a lynch. After being harassed by a few players, ex declares he's "basically" on the lowell wagon, and uses his FOS to declare his willingness to vote. David immediately places the L-1 vote, with the vague exhortation "let's see if he's scum!" This

despite

his post 257 declaring the obviousness of the scum-hammer strategy (which itself would have been nice to know ahead of time). Later in 347, david tries to explain his L-1 vote, admits it's WIFOM, but still uses it to coach scum on how to play.

Ex's 332 looks bad for the same reason. Clearly he was willing to vote me, but after reck's unvote took me to L-2 again, he quickly changed strategy to move to shadow to avoid the link with david. It's possible they both think the lowell-wagon has enough momentum that they don't need to join.

magna

's 293 rubs me the wrong way as well. He uses votecounts to link brian with me. He uses it despite the obvious WIFOM problem. Scum are in many cases more likely to avoid town-wagons, particularly if they're on early and seen to be driving it. That brian voted quoi could be an indication that he felt it was "safe" in that his other teammates were protected, whereas they would not have been had the wagon on me survived. Magna bascially ignores this possibility, making me think the quoi/brian lynch was a scum plan. I think it's just as likely there were some scum

off

the quoi wagon as on it.

fos exilon, magna

[Lowell]

I didnt' notice the obviousness of the david and ex setup until reread is the reason.

[Lowell]

you're getting desperate lowell..

and i already put lowell at L-1 earlier wicked... oh, and noone hammered :O

You're getting smug, scum.

[Lowell]

My message to all town players-

Ignore magma. Because he's willing to "bet it all" on my scumminess doesn't mean anything. We saw brian take a dive yesterday, so it's just as likely magma's doing the same.

In other news, I'm in the process of moving, so my internet access will be light until I can get internet hooked up at my new place (hopefully next week). If you need to replace me, do so, but I'd prefer to continue and will try to at least check in as often as possible.

[Lowell]

I echo the general lack of balance, but like the concept.

Maybe next time give town the advantage of having to get fewer lynches to win. There's no mechanical reason why it has to be 3/3, so maybe 3/2 would be a better option, while starting with 4 scum: 6 town.