Mini 1080 -- txtMafia -- Game OVER

[Herodotus]

[off-topic]
reminds me of the Monty Hall problem.
[/off-topic]

[Herodotus]

That's why it was [off-topic].

[Herodotus]

@RF: I don't agree about his vote on Kast being throwaway. At the time, I was pursuing a Kast case. But his RF def. and coasting are bad.

[Herodotus]

TF - I don't think you're paying much attention... which is something you called kinda scummy.

[Herodotus]

1876/1877 repeat a question I asked chamber.
You still have RF as scummy and are still voting him, without commenting on his recent postage beyond the claim.

[Herodotus]

And despite saying so, you haven't done anything to follow up re: K and c. You said probably one was scum, but have asked no questions/etc. to determine which.

[Herodotus]

Wish AH was around.

prod time for AH

:eye rollage:

Kast, you saying that RF was active and controvertial earlier?

[Herodotus]

I'm trying to work out the plausibility of a Fishy, chamber, AH scumteam but I'm busy today. That might imply more bussing than is likely. Thoughts?

[Herodotus]

I agree with all of 1907 but don't understand about the claim being "plausible." Is there some conclusion about his alignment affected by claim? - ctd

[Herodotus]

ctd - For instance, did you have prev. vanilla tells on RF that make his claim sound particularly true?

[Herodotus]

@Kast: I know the note on FtF was unrelated... but the statement they were discussing (and that you called a misrep) was this post. Is the opposite true?

[Herodotus]

Okay.

[Herodotus]

why do people continue to not vote scum

Ironic post is ironic.

[Herodotus]

@chamber: Do you still think Anti is town?

[Herodotus]

Just mentioning:
Misrep for dramatic effect is not scummy.

[Herodotus]

AV: if you want to lynch chamber, I'll follow.
RF is leaning slightly town for me.

[Herodotus]

What's ironic is that you've been voting the same townie for all of day 2 and most of day 1.

[Herodotus]

We could use more active leadership. I'm not good at it. I was hoping TF, Vi, or FtF would take that on...

[Herodotus]

I wish I had a good idea who was scum, but since I don't, I can't sincerely rally people to any suspect. The only people I have reads on are probtown.

[Herodotus]

I suppose I could rally people

away

from my town reads.

Tsky, get off AV.
TF, AV, Vi, get off RF.

Hm.

If

RF still has scum on him, TF is worst.
VOTE: TF

[Herodotus]

Observation: FtF is most suspect among AH voters, yet is only slightly worse than null.

[Herodotus]

Are you referring to trying to start a new wagon late in the game, or trying to break the votes on my townreads?

[Herodotus]

should be: late in the

day

obviously

[Herodotus]

@mod: an extension would be good. AH or his replacee may wish to claim.

[Herodotus]

@Fonz:
1. What you just said would only applies if I never rejoin the wagon.
2. There are plenty of people not voting AH. Are they all avoiding a townlynch?

[Herodotus]

What if I think AH is a decent lynch, but you are moderately more likely to be scum?

[Herodotus]

@RF: After yesterday, where the 'choice' was between presumably two townies, I was turned off by limiting the lynch to AH and RF.

[Herodotus]

Scum don't have to participate in a mislynch, if they can false dilemma the lynch so it's between townies. And I'm not confident AH or RF is scum.

[Herodotus]

Funny you should mention that. One idea I had in mind was to provoke TF to vote me, shrinking the RF wagon.

[Herodotus]

I think so. But I don't see a NoLynch as a reasonable possibility. I'll be online to revote AH if necessary. Marathon games lynch in a matter of minutes-hours.

[Herodotus]

Although if both RF and AH are town, I don't see how to conduct useful wagon analysis.

[Herodotus]

I did get the Vi-town idea on the D1 wagon analysis, but no one else seemed to think much of that, and there wasn't much other talk about D1 voting.

[Herodotus]

This feels unsporting to ask, but Kast, do you think the deadline happening soon is better than granting enough time for a replacement to at least read+claim?

[Herodotus]

I think AH was at L-2 before RF's unvote, because I voted TF.

[Herodotus]

We don't know whether the deadline is still in ~3 hours.

@mod, if it is, then please move my vote: AH; if not I'll keep it as it is

[Herodotus]

Is that a would-be hammer? I think it is:
FtF, Kast, Tasky, chamber, (Hdts-cond.), (RF-cond.)

[Herodotus]

I was just reporting my count. Nothing questionable about your hypovote.

[Herodotus]

VOTE: chamber

[Herodotus]

He did not answer this

Though RF could have responded, I wasn't asking him a question.

[Herodotus]

Also, I note with distaste that werewolf did not claim.

It does make some sense.

If

he can convince people he's town, it's better he not claim.

[Herodotus]

WW, I don't interpret that as a question to RF either.

[Herodotus]

-- to be more specific, I see it as Kast questioning the case that someone (TF?) was making against RF.

[Herodotus]

I don't see that the way you describe it. TF got ahead of things, but it would be reasonable for him to suspect if I was scum, I might:
make town scramble to

[Herodotus]

come up w/votes for AV, or
by making the AV wagon smaller, indirectly get RF-town lynched (while that was opposite of my intent) with my hands extra clean

[Herodotus]

@Chamber: Is that what you meant here? Does listing probabilities determine your reads? What about asking AV to use the right scale (25% v. 50%)?

[Herodotus]

I don't have a problem with him voting to save his own ass, but I feel like he's being dishonest about it.

I agree. Would consider revoting.

[Herodotus]

Now that AV mentions the wagons, I remember wondering why Vi kept voting RF, who is considered fifth scummiest in post 2062, behind W.

[Herodotus]

I don't think it "completely backfired", since AV was almost lynched a couple days ago, not RF.

[Herodotus]

Yes, AH.
Collapse of momentum? ?!?!? AH would have been lynched if deadline had occured. That's the

opposite

of collapse.

[Herodotus]

I think lamenting that you can't get the lynch you want, when you haven't voted that person, is superscummy, Vi.
It suggests a connection.
VOTE: Kast

[Herodotus]

Since that's going to need some explanation - I think Kast has been scummy overall, while Vi only has the K issue. If K is scum, my townread on Vi will be gone.

[Herodotus]

RF, I have a townread on Vi outside of this.
But I could see K's attacks on Vi as distancing, and Vi's nonvote as same.

Using P(name)=probability that (ctd)

[Herodotus]

(name) is Scum, and P(N1+N2) are S together,

P(Vi) = 9%

P(K+Vi) = 7%

P(K) >> 9%

IOW, if Vi is scum then K is. But not the reverse.

[Herodotus]

And it probably still doesn't sound right. Meh.

My point is that I suspect Kast, and Vi's effective FoS and lack of vote makes me suspect them

both

more.

[Herodotus]

Tasky: what about Kast?

[Herodotus]

:frustration:

I meant what about *lynching* Kast?

[Herodotus]

I don't think it's not viable.

[Herodotus]

But if it doesn't take off in the next few hours, I will vote werewolf.

[Herodotus]

It does match.
If K is scum, Vi is null. Maybe a

little

town. But before a Kscum flip, you're strongly town.

[Herodotus]

VOTE: Werewolf

[Herodotus]

Posts 2193 and 2194 are pretty obviously not what a scum says in this situation btw.

[Herodotus]

If you were scum, would you call for votes to move to you or W?
Would you want W to come and maybe claim something that would make the town pick you?

[Herodotus]

Specifically, requesting the prod for WW would be bad play if you're scum.
If WW's a PR, you'd probably be lynched if he claims.

[Herodotus]

RF would clearly be a mislynch too, unless you're the most WIFOM-gambity scum ever.

[Herodotus]

We ought to lynch chamber, maybe Kast, but WW will suffice since WW isn't obvtown while RF is.

[Herodotus]

As am I.

Eight alive suggests probable mylo.

[Herodotus]

Pap, have you read the full game yet?

[Herodotus]

I think getting the replacement to state reads first might have some use. But agree w/ popcorn massclaim.

[Herodotus]

Ok.
I suggest Pap or chamber to claim first.

[Herodotus]

You plan on No Lynch, Vi?

[Herodotus]

At the risk of helping the scum by pointing this out, I was considering that TF might have a good reason to prefer that we lynch. If so, that's probably better-

[Herodotus]

- but if not, we don't want him to say so. Sadly it seems that the best play is to make a decision collectively without discussing it.
colon questionmark

[Herodotus]

I never said anything about a vig...
I'm a little surprised that Vi supports no lynch considering this from a previous game, but it doesn't necessarily

[Herodotus]

implicate Vi, and if we no lynch it's probably best to wait until tomorrow to discuss.
I agree with no lynch

if

TF doesn't have a specific reason not to.

[Herodotus]

getting on odds via night action after MC basically depends on scum not having a RB
leaning toward NL

[Herodotus]

There are no more dice tags.

[Herodotus]

I think popcorn>random order anyways. Start with biggest suspect?

[Herodotus]

Cop. Results at the end.

Tasky next.

[Herodotus]

FWIW, Vig is exactly the role I had AV pegged as. Or maybe 1-shot.
N1 I got an Innocent on Vi, N2 I got an Innocent on TF.

[Herodotus]

@Tasky: My biggest consideration was choosing targets I thought wouldn't be killed by either mafia or a vig. Second biggest was finding scum.

[Herodotus]

I'll let AV claim targets before I explain -- something that will almost certainly need to be explained.

[Herodotus]

Holy postage, batman! I haven't caught up, just skimmed, but

I wondered maybe I'd been jail'd N1

^this

But N2 I don't understand.

[Herodotus]

(in fact, I even considered AV might have shot Kast)

[Herodotus]

And the thing I thought I might have to explain was my slight suspicion of Vi:
I've been taking the existence of an inv-immune GF as very likely - since Eq was

[Herodotus]

a JK, the scum didn't seem as likely to have a RB, as that would be two blocking roles. With a confirmed sane cop (yes, I'm confirmed) scum almost

[Herodotus]

always get either a RB or GF.

So the investigations have some weight, but aren't absolute.

[Herodotus]

@chamber: I thought Vi was scum N1 partly b/c of Korts, and partly because of the switch to K*, but I knew if Vi was innocent, I could frame the switch

[Herodotus]

as a towntell without outing my role.
With TF, I was pretty sure neither AV nor the scum would kill him, and I didn't have a strong read on him.

[Herodotus]

TF's hypothesis that RF is a m-RB is appealing, and I'm regretting my D2 townread on RF. But I want to reread before deciding.

[Herodotus]

@mod: I'll be busy for most of this week through Saturday.

... apologies to anyone who wanted to wrap up D3 soon.

[Herodotus]

RF on page 105 doesn't get it (but see: Arguing With Scum.)

@TF, does the RF case depend on my not being town, since I unvoted him and voted AH?

[Herodotus]

My confidence in AV-town is based on the "rolefishing" day 1, which looked designed to nail Equi down on what AV thought was a hint she was a vig.

[Herodotus]

Conclusion of AV-town:
Either mafia has RB or doc, AV has no bullets, or chamber is bulletproof. Mafia doc is rare. Vig without bullets is rare, and in this

[Herodotus]

setup, pointless.

Chamber bulletproof -> chamber is mafia.
Mafia have a RB

or

chamber is bulletproof mafia -> Mafia also having an inv-immune member

[Herodotus]

who isn't chamber makes them overpowered -> Mafia is unlikely to have an inv-immune member among {Vi, TF} ->

Vi, TF almost 100% cleared

.

[Herodotus]

My reads:
ch=RF=Rat>Tasky>>Vi>TF=AV
Vi has been slightly GFish, but is much more likely town.

[Herodotus]

I don't have one yet, and likely won't until the weekend.

[Herodotus]

p_r is scum because two [

possible scum

] are voting him and he's not dead yet[

?

]

Even if it took 4 to lynch, I don't see how this works.

[Herodotus]

This isn't right, I think. If we both lynch scum today and vig scum tonight then I think we gain one extra lynch (1 remains among 5.)

[Herodotus]

Paprat, on MS, people normally use the term "bussing" only if they're talking about partners...

@mod: my partial v/la will be total v/la tommorrow->sunday.

[Herodotus]

Is that really a lynch?
Ok... uncomfortable with the speed, but I probably would have voted RF anyways.

I can't imagine a 2-p scumteam with 3 strong PR's.

[Herodotus]

Really, given Tasky's post, I think the game is over with a scum win.

[Herodotus]

Vi and Rat, most likely.
But we'll see what the mod posts when the mod posts.

[Herodotus]

I'll stick with

Vi

.

I feel like I might regret not choosing Kast, but I had a little town tell from mothrax and some scumtells from Korts.

Yes. With an innocent on Kast and without one on Vi, I probably would have supported the attack on Vi.

I felt a little bad about investigating a player who dislikes the cop role after asking them to replace in, but I guess Vi didn't mind this time

[Herodotus]

While my penchant for drawing inv-immune scum is nice - even when I'm scum, I'm

never

scum - had your investigations been at all different or had we not blocked AV throughout the game this game would have turned out very, very differently. So no, I still mind the Cop role.

The role, sure, but my selections in this game worked out well for you.

I do still have to wonder why you asked me to replace in for a slot you thought was scum, though.

At the time there were 2 or 3 slots that needed replacement, so I wasn't thinking of any particular playerslot. And there were bigger suspects than Korts.

On a side note, your "goodbye everyone" gambit at the end of D1 is going down as one of my favorites. It probably would have worked better if we weren't already going to kill someone else, but still.

This was only the third game in which I've survived to day 3 as town, and in one of the 3, I was NK-immune. The only things I could proactively do to help myself survive were to either look lynchable, look vanilla, or make the mafia think I might be protected/watched. I was hoping to do the second and third.

Which of the mafia was the RB?

[Herodotus]

There's a discussion in MD that mentioned that limiting posts per day can turn games into lurkerfests. Penalizing town PR's for posting too much would have a similar effect. Even VT's and mafia wouldn't want to go beyond the limit (or an estimation of the limit) as this will out them as non-PR's.

In general I didn't have much trouble keeping references straight, except for some of Kast's. I think it's because I tend to obsess about any game I'm in, which makes me remember what happened.