Mini 325 - The Office ---Game Over

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

huggle Adele

Business Like Behaviour? Who needs business when you can have luv and affection?

vote Armlx

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote KirbyPhreak

Day1 CopClaims should pretty much always be followed up barring some sort of amazing role revelation.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

*jumps in front of Adele*

Not her! Not again!

How would we sup beneath starlit nights of cantaloupes and honeydew if you kill her!?

This so reeks of scum who's been caught on his last legs trying to get an innocent lynched before going down himself!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Seriously do you guys understand what the odds of the investigated guilty player who got outted on day 1 actually being a cop with a guilty that's sane is? It's astronomically absurdly small!

He's so scum wiggling in the nets!!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Idiots lynching Adele



2 cops niether sane? you honestly expect us to buy that crap Kirby?

vote Kirbyphreak

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

nice lie there

Roleblocker's already dead

vote W!nt3r

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

cuz mafia roleblockers so love going after paranoid cops who have zero credibility?

There's nothing involving my role that would suggest to me that you would be blocked from investigating me.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Mebbe NL would be the best option...

Here's how I see the probabilities break down assuming a GF and an SK:

If we lynch, then in the best case we lynch either GF or SK and the remaining baddie kills and we get down to a 1/3 situation where we have to lynch right or lose.

that's like a 2/5*1/3 chance of winning on pure random lynches.

However if we choose to NL, then the probability of one of them taking out the other one is 1-(3/4)(3/4)= 7/16 and then we're at 3 alive 1 baddie and we have a 1/3 chance of winning.

basically 7/16*1/3 > 2/5*1/3.(not by that much)

However! there is also an outside chance built in that the 2 scum will shoot each other, this figures in at 1/4(1/4)=1/16 which gives us an outright win!

However what would happen if both bad guys hit good guys? then we're left in a 3 person standoff that the town will STILL win if the bad guys shoot each other(which they would do with a good idea of who was bad), in that case a NL enforced by the townie claiming that he will countervote the first person to vote for him will be FORCED to go into a NL endgame.

Of course there are a few factors like both bad guys shooting the same townie which would preserve town control of lynch and what not.

I think we should consider NL as an option if we have no real information to go on.

btw where's every1 else?

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

love the activity level btw guys.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

massclaim is probably pretty bad b4 a NL, it would throw those kill probabilities all helterskelter and possibly parade out the last protown power roles to get butchered by the scum.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote no lynch

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

well that's almost the best we could hope for, having both killers kill each other would've been better

wakey upey guys

time to catch da last scumbago

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I'm Keith Bishop, Townie.

Armlx's claim looks pretty solid, Brent's definitely at the gathering as stated by the first post by Mod and it'd be pretty evil bastard modding if the last scum not only got the safeclaim of some1 who was stated by mod to be at the gathering but had some sort of massblock ability on top of that, though the town's already got a dead RBer so that could count against him.

Wintergreen, you got a counterclaim?

Btw, Pooky's policy towards making teh Pooky Gurantee of innocence in this situation will be as follows:

If a player votes Pooky, then clearly either that player is guilty or innocent, if that player is innocent, then the other scumbago just votes pooky and game's over, so Pooky will know for sure that the person voting Pooky is scumbago since if he was innocent, the game is gonna be over. Then Pooky will make the "Pooky Gurantee of Innocence"(Never been wrong in like forever, you can bet the bank on this!) and the other player(kingmaker in this case) will know for sure where his vote belongs.

Unless WG has some really persuasive stuff for me to disbelieve Armlx's claim, I think I know where i'll be voting.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

vote wintergreen

go town!

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

*huggles Armlx*

*breaks out da champagne and cake and stuff*

ok WG, game's up, might as well tell us your real role. We'll let you have the leftovers from the party if you behave

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

Hooray for getting revenge for me beloved Adele.

Town did get pretty unlucky with the insane cop investigating sane cop investigating miller chain of events, though the SK killing most of the mafia sorta cancels that out　：Ｄ

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what caused the nokills on night 1? that was hella confusing ^.^

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what caused the nokills on night 1? that was hella confusing ^.^

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what caused the nokills on night 1? that was hella confusing ^.^

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

what caused the nokills on night 1? that was hella confusing ^.^

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

i didn't? that's wierd.. I remember I did lol.

Lousy Logiciticus, trying to kill mafia all da time lol. I sure got him back!