Mini 1380: Tintin Game over!

[Mehdi2277]

Already had the game read so read wise klick was obv town day 1. That means something and isn't worth forgetting when his later play isn't bad (more meh), but overall I still have him as a strong town read. SDP has grown better and better thought wise as the game as progressed and would be my second strongest town read (and there's a second reason to support it). Of the three people left while I think code looks worst I have piggy and venmar around equal. I'll read things over more later today though.

Jail targets I jailed MM n1, UN n2, and SDP n3. Considering the two deaths SDP can't have shot either which lowers his chances of being scum by quite a bit (and for him to be mafia it'd mean his partner was trusted more since usually scum have the most trusted player doing the killing).

I have no desire to no lynch. I don't think scum would have a vig shot when town power is just a cop and jk. Currently ratio wise is probably 3:2:1 (maybe 3:1:1). Scum will probably have to try to shoot each other if they want to win (similar to a prisoner's dilemma).

[Mehdi2277]

I honestly think based on everyone's reads code is more likely to be a SK then scum being bussed near end game. I'd rather lynch mafia here. Which actually points best at you. Remind me why you think piggy is scum (I forgot she replaced om and from what I remember he played fine).

[Mehdi2277]

I want more then that. From my point of view I'm town and sdp probably is (and if you want to argue that town only has an cop for power have fun) with three scum elsewhere. I'm currently leaning towards klick being the last town, but either way if you know they're scum by PoE it should also be possible to explain why they're scum with other reasons (they're not perfect players who leave 0 traces of being scum). Om has about 200 posts. Are you saying PoE is the best reason you can give for that slot being scum?

[Mehdi2277]

I'll explain that Klick townread later. I'll say right now though that that it's pure gut and from experience, i feel confident this isn't Klick's scumplay.

Chances are, there is one scum in my town pile: Klick, Code, Uber, Psyche

I image the town are Me, Psyche, Dupondt, and Piggy, and the scum are Code and Klick. I will wait for this massclaim to end before I make a vote, those opinions may or may not change.

I see a lack of any transition from klick town to klick scum. I didn't quote all mentions of him but I don't see anywhere you giving a reason for him being scum. This was before I claimed the jk on SDP so you can't say PoE was the reason then.

Klick actually fits best considering the set up (a cop and a miller with 4 scum for the cop to check). His early play no one had a problem with. You can't just use PoE as a reason for why he's scum when I don't have you as a town read (it might make sense to you, but if you plan to convince me at all that isn't helping).

[Mehdi2277]

Professor Calculus. Anything else you want to say? And why does my flavor matter (I realize others claimed it, but why do you need my flavor claim unless you suspect me). I also think that drmy would give fake claims for this kind of theme (somewhat obscure), and lack of anyone mentioning that doesn't help.

[Mehdi2277]

Hi klick. Nice to play with you again. Anything else you want to add read wise? I'll try to explain ven scum a bit more in a few minutes (starting off my vote analysis). He's my strongest mafia read and I want to lynch mafia over SK right now. VOTE: Ven

[Mehdi2277]

Why not? Bit pretty much called ven/tech scum for most of his life but would only vote tech when ven was the easier lynch (and his vote was on ven first but switched off quick when he was seriously getting suspected). Ven pretty much fence sat on bit when bit was first suspected.

There's also probably three scum unless you want to explain the other kill. It's not a town kill or it would be claimed. I can't see mafia having an extra kill with this little town power. It's almost definitely a SK and I don't think 10:2:1 is anywhere likely.

[Mehdi2277]

10:2:1 is a fairly uphill climb for scum. With 2 scum they'd probably guess another scum team exists and having to deal with shooting the other team while not being lynched is just difficult. It's also a fairly rare ratio compared to 9:3:1. Even if it is 10:2:1 first paragraph still applies. Ven looks worst when connected to bit.

[Mehdi2277]

Let's look at what the VC reveal as well for day 1(I'm marking myself and SDP as town too). This is the first half of them. I'll work on the rest

1.1
Venmar - 2 (

Bitmap

,

Mehdi

) L-5

Johnny

- 3 (

AngryPidgeon

, Code_X, Venmar) L-4

AngryPidgeon

- 1 (

UberNinja

) L-6

Bit's vote post also helps. Complete lack of trying to make the vote worth anything really. Don't think code/ven as partners would be right next to each other from the start which helps the idea of code being SK.

1.2
Venmar - 3 (

Mehdi

, Piggy,

TeChNoWC

) L-4

Johnny

- 1 (Code_X) L-6

AngryPidgeon

- 1 (

UberNinja

) L-6
Code_X - 1 (

DeasVail

) L-6

UberNinja

- 1 (

AngryPidgeon

) L-6

Piggy

- 1 (

StrangerCoug

) L-6

Mehdi

- 1 (Venmar) L-6

TeChNoWC

- 1 (

Bitmap

) L-6

When ven was being pushed more seriously bit naturally just drops off him.

Also love how around that time he went with the idea of either ven or tech was scum but stuck to tech even though ven would have been an easier lynch.

1.3
Venmar - 3 (Piggy,

TeChNoWC

,

Mehdi

) L-4

Johnny

- 4 (Code_X,

AngryPidgeon

, Venmar,

StrangerCoug

) L-3
Code_X - 1 (

DeasVail

) L-6

TeChNoWC

- 1 (

Bitmap

) L-6

DeasVail

- 1 (

Super Dupondt Bros

) L-6

Bitmap

- 1 (

UberNinja

) L-6

For some reason I really doubt the johnny wagon has 0 mafia on it. With code being more likely a SK (unless he loves asking a scum buddy questions and the tone they had was obvious buddying with a lack of defending and staying on bitmap when bit wasn't being suspected as much) points at ven there a good amount. Om's like for bussing doesn't help piggy and is just null though. Also like venmar's read on bitmap at the time which is really just fence sitting on him.

1.4
Venmar - 3 (Piggy,

TeChNoWC

,

Mehdi

) L-4

Johnny

- 2 (Venmar,

StrangerCoug

) L-5
Code_X - 1 (

DeasVail

) L-6

TeChNoWC

- 1 (

Bitmap

) L-6

DeasVail

- 1 (

Super Dupondt Bros

) L-6

Mehdi

- 2 (

UberNinja

,

AngryPidgeon

) L-5

Nice to see who just stays on the johnny wagon.

1.5
Venmar - 3 (Piggy,

TeChNoWC

,

Mehdi

) L-4

Johnny

- 2 (Venmar,

StrangerCoug

) L-5
Code_X - 1 (

DeasVail

) L-6

TeChNoWC

- 1 (

Bitmap

) L-6

DeasVail

- 1 (

Super Dupondt Bros

) L-6

Mehdi

- 1 (

UberNinja

) L-6
Piggy - 1 (

AngryPidgeon

) L-6

Doesn't really reveal much new compared to the last VC. Only vote change I think is AP to piggy (om at the time).

VoteCount 1.6

Venmar - 4 (Piggy,

TeChNoWC

,

Mehdi

,

DeasVail

) L-3

Johnny

- 4 (Venmar,

StrangerCoug

, Code_X,

AngryPidgeon

) L-3

TeChNoWC

- 1 (

Bitmap

) L-6

DeasVail

- 1 (

Super Dupondt Bros

) L-6

AngryPidgeon

- 1 (Klick) L-6

Ven wagon grows, bit continues to vote park when he supposedly doesn't trust either. Also first klick vote and seeing him start a wagon on one of the most trusted players vs jump on a wagon just helps that town read. Also nice how venmar and johnny are dueling wagons (and johnny flipped town).

VoteCount 1.7

Venmar - 4 (Piggy,

TeChNoWC

,

Mehdi

,

DeasVail

) L-3

Johnny

- 4 (Venmar,

StrangerCoug

, Code_X,

AngryPidgeon

) L-3

TeChNoWC

- 1 (

Bitmap

) L-6

DeasVail

- 1 (

Super Dupondt Bros

) L-6

AngryPidgeon

- 1 (Klick) L-6

Bitmap

- 1 (

UberNinja

) L-6

Very minimal change since last VC (only vote change is UN on bit).

VoteCount 1.8

Venmar - 4 (

TeChNoWC

, Mehdi,

DeasVail

,

Bitmap

) L-3

Johnny

- 4 (Venmar,

StrangerCoug

, Code_X,

AngryPidgeon

) L-3

DeasVail

- 1 (

Super Dupondt Bros

) L-6

AngryPidgeon

- 1 (Klick) L-6

Bitmap

- 2 (

UberNinja

, Piggy) L-5

Minimal change, but this comforting when it comes to piggy's slot a bit (and helps the idea maybe we only have two scum). Om changing a vote from one scum to the other is strange to do as scum. Bit also finally gets on ven after having everyone say tech is town (and he changed the vote before he got his own second vote so doing it to survive wasn't the reason).

VoteCount 1.9

Venmar - 3 (

TeChNoWC

,

DeasVail

,

Bitmap

) L-4

Johnny

- 1 (Venmar) L-6

DeasVail

- 2 (

Super Dupondt Bros

,

StrangerCoug

) L-5

AngryPidgeon

- 1 (Klick) L-6

Bitmap

- 5 (

UberNinja

, Piggy,

Mehdi

,

AngryPidgeon

, Code_X) L-2

Ven still parked on johnny. Considering bit is likely dying at this point I think his focus was more on keeping his partner alive for the future. He'd be tunneling ven more if he truly wanted that counter wagon. Code also jumps to the bigger wagon when it comes. Nice opportunistic jump.

VoteCount 1.10

DeasVail

- 4 (

Super Dupondt Bros

,

StrangerCoug

,

UberNinja

, Piggy) L-3
Venmar - 3 (

TeChNoWC

,

DeasVail

, Klick) L-4

Bitmap

- 3 (

Mehdi

, Code_X, Venmar) L-4

StrangerCoug

- 1 (

Bitmap

) L-6

Bit's vote I have no clue what it's purpose was (deas would have been a good place to go to). Ven's vote doesn't help him much. It was an L-1 vote on bit and probably a last minute bus. He later pushes a bit more on bit when the wagon mostly dies while at the same time being ready to swap to deas.

VoteCount 1.11

DeasVail

- 1 (

Super Dupondt Bros

) L-6
Venmar - 3 (

TeChNoWC

, Klick,

StrangerCoug

) L-4

Bitmap

- 5 (

Mehdi

, Code_X, Venmar,

UberNinja

, Piggy) L-2

StrangerCoug

- 2 (

Bitmap

,

DeasVail

) L-5

Johnny

- 1 (

AngryPidgeon

) L-6

Back to bit's lovely avoidance of the ven wagon.

VoteCount 1.12

DeasVail

- 1

(Super Dupondt Bros

) L-6
Venmar - 4 (

TeChNoWC

, Klick,

StrangerCoug

,

Johnny

) L-3

Bitmap

- 5 (

Mehdi

, Code_X, Venmar,

UberNinja

, Piggy) L-2

StrangerCoug

- 2 (

Bitmap

,

DeasVail

) L-5

Johnny

- 1 (

AngryPidgeon

) L-6

Minimal Change. Only change is johnny voting ven as well which just continues the last point of bit won't vote his counter wagon.

VoteCount 1.13

DeasVail

- 1 (

Super Dupondt Bros

) L-6
Venmar - 3 (Klick,

StrangerCoug

,

Johnny

) L-4

Bitmap

- 5 (

Mehdi

, Venmar,

UberNinja

, Piggy,

TeChNoWC

) L-2

StrangerCoug

- 2 (

Bitmap

,

DeasVail

) L-5

TeChNoWC

- 2 (Code_X,

AngryPidgeon

) L-5

Not much change since last time really. Tech wagon starting which continues code's strange voting jumps (interestingly off bit), but nothing else.

Overall piggy helped a bit to null, code and ven are scum, me, klick, and sdp are town so I didn't really care what VC says on us.

[Mehdi2277]

I think your SK. I doubt you're mafia. It's also why I don't want to lynch you today (there's a good chance there's two mafia and lowering their numbers is more important).

[Mehdi2277]

Drmyshotgun, who was Tintin, a Vanilla Townie fainted pre-game.

I think that answers your question though.

[Mehdi2277]

And what is your current read on venmar?

[Mehdi2277]

Skimming through the other VC interesting how ven and piggy are on both mislynches, but that's really the main thing (and there's only one VC for day 3 before the lynch).

[Mehdi2277]

And what about Om? Ignoring him when giving a read on piggy doesn't help. His jump off of ven to bit right when bit's wagon was starting helps him quite a bit (and if ven is scum even more so because why try to bus one partner and then switch to trying to bus a different partner).

Thinking more on the deas kill deas suspected ven quite a bit. Deas was also suspected so if it was aiming for a SK that would point to a two man mafia team. AP/UN were extremely obv town so there kills don't reveal much. Tech I think was shot for looking town. His scum reads at the end were sdb, code, and klick.

[Mehdi2277]

Klick I can somewhat see 10:2:1 right now, but if it is true that just reinforces my venmar scum read and makes piggy more likely town (unless you think she's SK).

[Mehdi2277]

As for piggy's entrance there is no way she read the whole game and wrote that in two hours. No those reads were probably decided before she got her role pm (similar to how my reads were decided before I got my role pm). They're null alignment wise and what her town reads would have been. Ven also was on both the SC/MM wagon so using that against her but not him is just dumb.

[Mehdi2277]

Explain why bit stuck on tech for so long over ven when his own reasoning was both could be scum. Explain how he goes from town klick to scum klick so easily with 0 transition except PoE. And why do much extra pushing when you're scum reads are being lynched? Piggy's reads I doubt she didn't have an idea on before replacing in. Or how Om goes on to bit near the start. Plus how he mainly led wagons instead of followed.

[Mehdi2277]

The he from town to scum klick refers to venmar (realized that was worded badly).

[Mehdi2277]

For the meta on venmar, tech loves meta. And I wonder who he wrote a meta case against for a lot of day 1 on.

FOS: Venmar
VOTE: TeChNoWC

4th post he made. Early in the game, but strangely doesn't just flip to venmar when ven was getting suspected a lot. For a good part of day 1 ven/johnny were fighting wagons. Were both town? I doubt it considering how they went.

[Mehdi2277]

Later means when? Although same question can be asked to everyone else. This game was extremely active at start. Letting it stall is just bad for any town player.

[Mehdi2277]

That's not my point. I don't see you as town which means you're PoE argument is weak. For me to see it as true I'd need to have a town read on you. If you think calling it PoE is enough of a reason for it to be both valid and for me to believe it then I disagree (and I use PoE a ton as town).

Why push piggy anyway? From your point of view piggy and klick are equally scum. Yet you focus on the easier lynch.

Klick I don't see ven as town at all.

[Mehdi2277]

Short add on. Ven is suspected. Game stalls even more. Wonder what that means? 1743 also continues to ring true.

[Mehdi2277]

I've been waiting to get ven closer to being lynched before set up plans. As for who I block code probably. Whether ven is town or mafia I think code is probably the SK. If ven is SK then I'll block either code or piggy (mainly since code doesn't feel like a bit partner). Sure that could have been staged, but why? Especially when it gave klick an excuse to push for a psyche lynch as well but he chose bit. Bussing can be done without that gambit and just as well. His play throughout has carried minimal suspicion for a reason. Strongest town read I have other then SDP (who really is just because of the fact I blocked them).

[Mehdi2277]

Except if we're in 3:2:1 we lose if we lynch the serial killer. It might be good to realize that.

I'm curious how if I'm town and you trusting me works together.

I've repeatedly replied to the PoE thing so nothing to add there.

Quote uber. On the specific thing I was referring to quote him (how bit wouldn't vote you while suspecting you).

[Mehdi2277]

Applies if you're town. I know me and sdp pretty much are. The main point I've been saying against the PoE is it only works from your perspective. Piggy can claim you, code, and klick are scum by poe just like you did just as easily. I very much dislike how hard you're pushing piggy over klick when both are scum from your point of view (a point you still haven't replied to).

I disagree with uber completely then (my main thing on you is the opposite where he said that but took a while to vote someone fosed a lot).

[Mehdi2277]

I've been assuming worst case scenario, but I'm currently leaning towards 4:1:1. It's a risk, but if that's the case code is the best lynch (while I jail keep you and confirm you as town or make you as probably mafia). If sdb thinks it's 4:1:1 and willing to risk that there isn't 2 mafia I'd be willing to lynch code right now.

[Mehdi2277]

I don't think they have BP. For them to have BP they would be unlikely to have investigation immunity and we have a known dead cop. Scum have to aim for each other since if they don't they'll end up tieing each other at endgame.

[Mehdi2277]

Piggy the game doesn't work randomly. SK has to aim for mafia. They'd lose vs two mafia most likely there if they don't. SK doesn't win if a mafia member is alive (they need all dead) and mafia doesn't win until the SK is dead and they have half or greater. This is why scum hate prisoner's gambit type situations. In fact 2:1:1 is almost always a town win. If scum shoot town and get shot they lose. If they shoot the other and the other shoots town they win. If they both shoot town they tie. It's literally impossible as scum to win without shooting the other scum in 2:1:1.

[Mehdi2277]

That might be worth something if it wasn't a null tell. He fake claims as both alignments (yeah I remember masons and mafia) so it's not really supporting much (and I actually did a town meta argument on him recently for fake claiming).

[Mehdi2277]

The main point is you claiming mason isn't really a tell either way.

[Mehdi2277]

Bad lynch. Venmar's entire case on her is PoE. Code's reasoning is mentioned once and deals with actions she made earlier on and would have been easy to comment on at the start of the day (his reasoning focusing on her being on both town mislynches). When someone reaches L-1 with pretty lazy reasoning there's a big problem. Beyond that I will not lynch anyone not named ven or code today (ven being preferred). Piggy isn't hammering herself and SDB thinks she's town. A piggy wagon isn't ever going to be a lynch without him flipping his mind (I know mine won't).

[Mehdi2277]

Currently weaker town read then piggy. Wouldn't want to lynch him right now. If it's 3:2:1 I could see him as mafia fine with ven. If it's 3:1:1 don't think he's SK (since I'd expect that to have investigation immunity in a game with a cop) and doubt he's mafia so town there.

[Mehdi2277]

Klick do you see 0 problem in voting someone that you suspect less because they have more votes in mylo/lylo? Or when the near confirmed town is hard defending piggy and won't vote her. And the other near confirmed town has a town read on her. Good luck lynching piggy with only three votes (mine will

never

go on her today).

[Mehdi2277]

Mass Prod please?

I've been a bit busy but game wise I'm the same. That and SDB needs to make clear his position on piggy. I believe it's a town read so anyone voting piggy needs to get off her since there is no way we're lynching her.

[Mehdi2277]

That and considering it's fairly obvious what his reads are (unless they flipped pretty quick) that ven, code, and klick's replacement need to be voting elsewhere. Voting someone that's impossible to lynch is wasting your vote.

[Mehdi2277]

For the person who replaces klick here's a summary of the game before you start reading.

Ratio is most likely 4:1:1 with a maybe 3:2:1 ratio. If it's the second lynching a serial killer today likely leads to a town loss. We've already mass claimed. The only living PR is a jailkeeper which is myself. Considering the set up would be unbalanced if I wasn't a town pr (we've had a cop flip and that's it when it comes to prs so far) I'm near confirmed town (and have been treated like it). I jailkept SDB last night and considering both kills appeared he's near confirmed town. Which leaves piggy, yourself, venmar and code for likely scum. While I think the set up is 4:1:1 for now I'm treating it like 3:2:1 in case it's the worst situation (along with having a strong mafia read on a player). You are currently voting piggy. I will not vote her. SDB has a town read on her. She is extremely unlikely to be lynched today (it'd require sdb to flip reads on her). Vote elsewhere. Venmar's interactions with bit early on I find suspicious. I wrote my reasons more on the vote a page or two ago along with a vote count analysis.

That summarizes game state. Recommend read day 1 and look at bit's interactions with other players (he's the only flipped mafia).

[Mehdi2277]

Still voting piggy is a pretty important thing to mention. Either magically make sdb flip reads or vote someone who has a chance of being lynched.

[Mehdi2277]

He already called piggy a town read. You're not expecting him to change slightly but to flip reads. That's very unlikely and lynching her is very unlikely.

[Mehdi2277]

For the person who replaces klick here's a summary of the game before you start reading.

Ratio is most likely 4:1:1 with a maybe 3:2:1 ratio. If it's the second lynching a serial killer today likely leads to a town loss. We've already mass claimed. The only living PR is a jailkeeper which is myself. Considering the set up would be unbalanced if I wasn't a town pr (we've had a cop flip and that's it when it comes to prs so far) I'm near confirmed town (and have been treated like it). I jailkept SDB last night and considering both kills appeared he's near confirmed town. Which leaves piggy, yourself, venmar and code for likely scum. While I think the set up is 4:1:1 for now I'm treating it like 3:2:1 in case it's the worst situation (along with having a strong mafia read on a player). You are currently voting piggy. I will not vote her. SDB has a town read on her. She is extremely unlikely to be lynched today (it'd require sdb to flip reads on her). Vote elsewhere. Venmar's interactions with bit early on I find suspicious. I wrote my reasons more on the vote a page or two ago along with a vote count analysis.

This should be read first.

[Mehdi2277]

Deadline is in about ttwo hours. Piggy the out of nowhere barkley read makes little sense (nor does all the vote flips and ven staying alive). I'm online and will hammer barkley if needed.

If the person we lynch is town or mafia I am jailkeeping code. If we lynch the SK I am jailkeeping venmar (if we lynch venmar and he's sk then jailkeep piggy). That covers all real possibilities, so if I die tonight remember who I jailkept when doing spec on things.

[Mehdi2277]

It's pretty important to say if we lynch mafia or a SK today (which would leave only one faction so lack of kill would condemn someone and say there is only one mafia left). If we lynch town I'll admit it's fairly useless.

[Mehdi2277]

14 minutes left. Don't think there's time for venmar to be lynched and won't lynch piggy. So
VOTE: ben

[Mehdi2277]

VOTE: Code

We know two things right now. A. There's only one scum left (if there was a SK and 3rd mafia I doubt both kills would be blocked when I targeted code who was lynchable). B. Code is SK or SK no killed. If code isn't SK then I'll jailkeep ven. The next day either there will be a kill or there will be no kills. If there is a kill then remember that sdb is clear and ven would be clear and I'm fairly clear confirming piggy as scum. If there is no kill lynch venmar followed by piggy for the win (while jailkeeping piggy).

I think that should mostly guarantee a win as long as the SK doesn't have some strange power or other role stuff appearing.

[Mehdi2277]

Mod: Psyche is on the vote count still.:p

Apologies! ~Shotgun

[Mehdi2277]

Honestly if you're town I'm fine going with the person you want me to jk. I think the game is won no matter what (assuming no 3rd mafia or something) and ven's connections with bit aren't relevant now that the last likely mafia is dead (since really my case on him was a mafia read by association not so much a SK case).

[Mehdi2277]

Well my argument and push was mainly bitmap's associations to you (I honestly barely cared for the PoE point and argued it because I thought you were mafia)

[Mehdi2277]

Vote away.

I'll jailkeep piggy

if code being lynched doesn't end the game. If there is a

kill tomorrow piggy is clear. Sdb is already clear too.

[Mehdi2277]

Bit you made me tunnel venmar to death for a while so you're play did have some pros. Enjoyed the game shotty (my first by you) and hope to see everyone again some time.