Vanger Family Mafia (GAME OVER!)
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In post 26, quadz08 wrote:Votecount 1.1
Klick (5): Klick, Thor665, drmyshotgun, SnakePlissken, Whiskers
This VC undeniably has scum on it. If I'm town, I seriously doubt that this wagon happened to have all town on it. If I'm scum, there's obviously scum on the wagon.
Therefore, this pool of five should be looked at by everyone.
Reading up now.-
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Hmm.
Thor's probably town. In my history with Thor, in his scum games (most notably Dark Side of the Moon), he really cared less about what I did and said I was derptown. However, in his town games (most notably that Newbie game that Robo modded), he questioned me and mostly pushed me as a lynch, and I suspect that I'm actually unreadable to him.
PEdit: I'll move to my laptop and do that. However, I'm not on the Pasch wagon because he's at L-1.-
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Matt:
In post 267, Klick wrote:Wasn't your reason that Pasch was town, therefore Whiskers was scum?
How do your two reasons correlate?
Your reason is bullshit.-
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In post 324, Paschendale wrote:In post 309, Klick wrote:No, I wanted to vote Pasch. The fact that it was a hammer was the part I was trying to fake.
So your big plan is to lie? Very pro-town.
Cool, I'm not taking my vote off of you today. I know you've heard of the term "fake-hammer."
@Snake: How can you not see what I was trying to achieve in fake-hammering Pasch?-
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In post 562, MattP wrote:In post 294, Klick wrote:Willing to hammer.
Pasch is probably scum, as I have a town read on Thor now.
In post 303, Klick wrote:VOTE: Pasch
Hopefully a Pasch scumflip will putan end to this Whiskers crap.
In post 432, Klick wrote:...Pasch hasn't been hammered, has he?
I am not voting Klick because he's a "lurker"
I'm voting Klick because he's SCUM
I seriously see no way that this line of quotes could make me scum.-
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@Bump: What do you mean? I tried to put it in a tense that would make people think it was a hammer, and people had been saying that Pasch was at L-1.
Whiskers, that was obvious sarcasm from Bump. Scum points for Whiskers.
I've been working on a read since my last post, with a few interruptions. I'm around Page 8.-
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@quadz: Can you confirm or deny if the Mafia were given fakeclaims?
Alright, readthrough time. I'm trying a new style for this with reasoning and semi-walls and read lists and shit.
First thing I notice is that EPM's #29 is still terrible. He's acting like he thinks I was actually claiming scum, but he doesn't put a vote on it.
Bump's #33 is a slight scumtell. He apparently thought Thor was pressuring him with that comment instead of continuing to push on me, and in that context, his reaction feels too nervous.
I just considered the fact that Thor really didn't need to go out of his way to push on me if he was scum. Really, it only serves to make him look bad, as he could probably easily get me mislynched later. Town points for Thor.
pecan's #54 - if whoever is saying pecan is scum is right, there's a partner in Thor/Matt. On the other hand, as of now, I have townreads on both of them, so that points even more to pecan-town.
EPM in #65 isn't helping him. None of his posts have felt natural so far. That's kinda the same problem I have with Bump. He also didn't answer my question.
EPM's #71. He's apparently trying to sell that I admitted to being scum. No.
Thor's evidence against Pasch in #81 & 88 is sheepable.
Whiskers' #99 - I really don't think Whiskers-scum would care about what Jake did as a slot unless they're partners. Whiskers is probably town.
Matt's #115 is great. Basically, he's being sensitive to the fact that someone is calling him a bad player in this game by using another town game. This is where my Matt townread started/has its roots.
Reads as of Page 5:
(note: marking Xis as town permanently, as I didn't ever bother to read the slot's posts due to him already being obviously town)
(note: italicized names are cemented into their places)
TOWN
Me
Xis
Matt
Whiskers
PROBABLY TOWN
pecan
Thor
NULL
Snake/Axxle/shotgun/Jake
LEANING SCUM
Bump
Pasch
PROBABLY SCUM
EPM
EPM's #142 - the first line is really good, as it's exactly how I felt before my read. I also don't feel like it was faked. EPM leaning town now.
shotgun #145 is a pretty BS tell.
Like I said before, Thor's #169 gives a pretty good reason for Whiskers-town. Whiskers persisted that he voted me for an actual reason, when it would be simple just to call it a bandwagon vote.
Note at this point - I'm making the connection that at least one of {Thor, Pasch} is scum. Thor's job as town is to find scum and get them lynched, while his job as scum is to convince people to do things. He's generally good at both. He seems to have a solid reason to vote Pasch and has gotten many to sheep him, but it seems like it happened too easily. However, I personally agree with his evidence and am of the opinion that Pasch is scum. Therefore, if Pasch isn't actually scum, I'm going to think that Thor has done his job well, and therefore is scum. He would likely have at least one partner on Pasch's wagon with him.
Yeah, EPM's #175 isn't him-scum. I think he would put more reasoning intoanyread as scum than just gut. It's kinda a player tell.
shotgun's #182 is also a pretty BS tell, but it's not as scummy as the first. His #190 has no reasonable... reason. Pretty much the whole of Page 8 is terrible for him.
The AtE in Pasch's #194 is terrible ("Just go ahead and fucking lynch me," "Enjoy your mislynch," etc.). I really don't see the town purpose in it. "Enjoy your mislynch" also tends to imply that he's calling Thor scum, when earlier, he was making claims that he spoke of everyone as neutral because he couldn't be sure. He could have been saying that to everyone in general, but the wording of the sentence really makes me doubt that. His suicidal actionalsodoesn't match up with him being a PR. PRs tend to not be okay with their own lynch, as they are the town's one objective asset. However, what would make more sense is that Pasch wasn't planning on having to fakeclaim a PR because of the AtE, but his wagon continued, and claiming was the best way to save himself at that point.
I'm unsure whether #207 by Bump is a really good post or a really bad post. He pointed out the AtE in Pash's post. I disagree with almost everything else in the post, but the way he posted it feels really hard to fake. Bump moves up in town points.
Like I mentioned, Jake's #208 is bad because he uses apathy for the game as a legitimate scumtell, and one that makes me "practically confirmed scum." I've had apathy in plenty of games in the past as both alignments, and I have apathy in plenty of games currently. (also, I was having a really hard time emotionally around that point, but I won't go into specifics) His #210 doesn't reassure me.
Whiskers' #212 is a slight scumtell. He gives a ton of reasons why the Pasch push is stupid to him in the first paragraph. However, in the second, he pulls out a random suspicion of Pasch for a really lame reason, and decides that he'll keep his vote for it. Whiskers moves down.
(note: I find it ironic that Jake said he was gunning for the person that put Pasch at L-2 if Pasch turned up town, and the VC on the next page showed that he was the one who did so. Not sure if that was the intended joke or what, but still)
Snake proves that he literally read nothing but the VC in #224. There was a post asking him to claim two posts above his. -_-
Whiskers had an opportunity in #227 to call attention to both Jake and I, but chose not to. That's a pretty big towntell for me unless he's partners with Jake.
Pasch comes back in #228 to scare Bump into not hammering him. Although I can see the town motivation in him avoiding claiming as a PR, that's pretty easy to fake. His suspicion of Bump hammering without a claim is pretty unreasonable as well.
(note: Happy birthday, EPM!)
EPM's claim to be able to read Bump and vice-versa ties them together nicely. If EPM is town, I don't doubt his townread on Bump. Therefore, if Bump is scum, I'll immediately suspect EPM for being wrong on his assured meta read. In short:In post 242, Klick wrote:If Bump is scum, so is evilpacman. Therefore, if evilpacman is town, so is Bump.
All of Axxle's posts so far have pretty much been in a ballsy, accusatory fashion. It makes it hard for me to get a read on him, as I really can't tell if stuff that seems scummy is just his attitude or actual scumposting.
shotgun is still not impressing me. He could be lazy town sheeping and trying to look cool, but it looks really fake all the time.
Reads as of Page 10:
TOWN
Me
Xis
EPM/Bump(if EPM is town, Bump moves up; if Bump is scum, EPM moves down)
Matt
PROBABLY TOWN
Thor(if Pasch is town, Thor moves down)
pecan
Whiskers(if Jake is scum, Whiskers moves down)
NULL
Snake/Axxle
LEANING SCUM
Jake
shotgun
PROBABLY SCUM
Pasch(if Thor is scum, Pasch moves up)
The Thor-tell in #254 still applies, but it doesn't really change his standings (Thor is never getting past "PROBABLY TOWN")
Already made comments on how I felt about Pasch's claim. Thor's point in #258 matches it.
Matt totally believes his reasoning in #266. It's complete bullshit, but he believes it.
Whiskers' reaction to Matt suspecting him is good. He continues to express the view that he's not 100% on anyone at any time, when as scum, that play is really unnecessary and only serves to make him look scummy. I'm also convinced that his master scum plan can't seriously be to piss people off into lynching him, like in #283 with pecan.
shotgun's #301 surprises me. It's in a different attitude than almost all of his other posts. I would think that his normal response would be to not really care if Snake gets lynched or not or about anything that happens to him. I feel a connection between shotgun and Snake, and if one of them flips scum, the other is going to increase in suspicion.
Pasch's first paragraph in #324 is pretty much the opposite of his AtE, and it happens right when he has a chance of being lynched imminently. His comment toward me is terrible. It's just... really, really bad. I don't know how to describe it other than that.
Snake's posts (read: #325) are way too general to get a read on. He comments on things that are either already obvious or that won't put him out of the general opinion of the town. I have to slightly lean scum on him.
In #331, Whiskers stated that Anita couldn't be scum due to flavor, but forgot the possibility that Anita may not actually be in the game, but a scum fake name. Now, if Pasch is scum and Anita was a fake name, it will be hard to go through the WIFOM of whether Whiskers just said that to keep Pasch alive, or if he said it as town actually not knowing that there could be fake names. However, if Pasch is town, I seriously doubt that Whiskers could be scum making this argument. Plus, I doubt that the Mafia don't have fake names. (I'm going to ask quadz if he can confirm or deny whether or not there are scum fakeclaims at the top of this post to see, but if he can't, I'm going to assume there are) So, if Pasch is town, Whiskers is town, and if Whiskers is scum, Pasch is scum. (note: This is going to cause some pretty weird things to start happening in my reads list)
Thor's #361 pretty much commented on everything I wanted to comment on concerning #360. shotgun's posts are bullshit, not completely sure what it means, yadda yadda yadda.
Reads as of Page 15:
TOWN
Me
Xis
EPM/Bump(if EPM is town, Bump moves up; if Bump is scum, EPM moves down)
Whiskers(if Jake is scum, Whiskers moves down; if Pasch is town, Whiskers moves up)
Matt
PROBABLY TOWN
Thor(if Pasch is town, Thor moves down)
pecan
NULL
Snake/Axxle
LEANING SCUM
Jake(if Pasch is town, Jake moves up)
shotgun
PROBABLY SCUM
Pasch(if Thor is scum, Pasch moves up; if Whiskers is scum, Pasch moves down; if Jake is scum, Pasch moves down)
The next few pages probably won't have many comments from me, as there are many posts from Xis. Plus, I've been working on this for over five hours. It may also have to do with the fact that a lot of my reads are already pretty solidified.
Bump's #415 comments with EPM feel real, and give Bump town points.
pecan's first little paragraph thing in #420 reads as legit. It's a story only town would go through, and it's too elaborate for me to think he made it up. pecan looks more town now.
Jake's posts (read: #430) just feel way too easy to make up. I know it's most likely his play style, but it makes him look scummy. There are parts that are unnecessary, that serve no purpose but to make his reads sound stronger.
...oh god. Xis governed Pasch because of hisname claim? That was a really terrible reason.
Pasch had pretty much no reaction to being governed in the first post he posted after the governing. More scum points.
...that's all I can get from Pages 16-20, at least right now.
Reads as of Page 20:
TOWN
Me
Xis
EPM/Bump(if EPM is town, Bump moves up; if Bump is scum, EPM moves down)
Whiskers(if Jake is scum, Whiskers moves down; if Pasch is town, Whiskers moves up)
Matt
pecan
PROBABLY TOWN
Thor(if Pasch is town, Thor moves down)
NULL
Snake/Axxle
LEANING SCUM
Jake(if Pasch is town, Jake moves up)
shotgun
PROBABLY SCUM
Pasch(if Thor is scum, Pasch moves up; if Whiskers is scum, Pasch moves down; if Jake is scum, Pasch moves down)
The fact that Xis has another shot pretty much confirms him as town as well. Mafia Multi-shot Governor is way overpowered.
...
I kinda skimmed over the last few pages. I doubt anything there would change my read on anyone.
FINAL READS
TOWN
Me
Xis
EPM/Bump(if EPM is town, Bump moves up; if Bump is scum, EPM moves down)
Whiskers(if Jake is scum, Whiskers moves down; if Pasch is town, Whiskers moves up)
Matt
pecan
PROBABLY TOWN
Thor(if Pasch is town, Thor moves down)
NULL
Snake/Axxle
LEANING SCUM
Jake(if Pasch is town, Jake moves up)
shotgun
PROBABLY SCUM
Pasch(if Thor is scum, Pasch moves up; if Whiskers is scum, Pasch moves down; if Jake is scum, Pasch moves down)
I feel pretty good about scum being in the last six. I feel extremely good about Pasch-scum.
I'll try a VCA focusing on this group next time I have time.-
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In post 627, Thor665 wrote:Why do you think 420 looks townish from Pasch?
He claims his goal of not offering reads was to avoid distractions - functionally.
He says this while thinking Pasch is townish and later having his unwillingness to provide reads *kinda* being a distraction considering the current flow of the day.
In post 628, Xisiqomelir wrote:In post 614, Xisiqomelir wrote:I'd rather see more pecan votes. Seeing as how he'd rather post things like #584, #608 and #610 rather than drms, e-pac and Thor cases as his #551 strongly implies, I think I'm going to re-state my thoughts for you all shortly.
After careful consideration, I've decided to instead ask everyone who believes in town-pecan to explain why (pecan is exempt from this question).
Answering both of these -
#420 isn't as much of a towntell as I thought it was when I wrote it, but it's still one. The simple, can't-blame-ya answer would have been something along the lines of "He claimed a PR, and I didn't want to take the risk." Instead, he said that he had wanted to switch his vote to Whiskers for some time before that, that Pasch's claim gave him a transition into that, and that the claim actually did look town to him. It was much more elaborate than it needed to be for a satisfactory answer, and the opinions stated only come from town.
As for what else makes pecan town: First, his #54. He says that he believes that neither Thor nor Matt are scum at that point. First of all, if he's scum, he's giving connections really early, really obviously. If he's scum, I would expect that he's calling one of his partners town there instead of stunting the argument between them. However, since I also have town reads on both Thor and Matt so far, it makes it much less likely that he's referencing a partner.
I also find the fact that he wants to hide his reads until Day 2 a towntell, for a similar reason. Him doing this now as scum only serves to make him look bad. However, the town motivation for it makes perfect sense, and I've done it myself before; you're more likely to see the things you find scummy occur over and over in a person if you don't call them out on it immediately. Taking it all the way to Day 2 is a bit of a stretch, but it makes sense. I could see the scum motivation being that he doesn't want any reads to connect him to his partners due to him coming close to a lynch, but there are two problems with that. One, he had this mindset of hiding his reads before he got wagoned, and two, he had no problem making connections even early game, like in #54.
@everyone on the pecan wagon (that would be Xis, Jake, Thor, & EPM):I'd like to hear your opinions on what I've said that makes pecan town. Is it good reasoning? Why or why not? How does it match up with your reasoning for voting him?
Until I do my VCA, I'm going to be voting Snake. I feel that he's the best vote right now and needs pressure.-
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(some quotes shortened/omitted by me)
Xisiqomelir wrote:There is still a reason to vote him/her/wut? now, but first I want to respond to your read.
The opening line is the same vote-fake-out scumtellagain, he says there's reason for a Whiskers vote and then doesn't make one.
In post 420, pieceofpecanpie wrote:I understand your read, I believe it has some merit, but what I feel it lacks is the context of the moment.
This is appeasement.[/quote]
I don't even know what either of these mean in a scummy context. The "appeasement" comment appears to be confirmation bias.
Xisiqomelir wrote:In post 420, pieceofpecanpie wrote:Pasch wagon was at L-1 with numerous people willing to hammer, I voted Whiskers with the intention of fully explaining why I was doing so.However, I felt like this was an example of mistiming on my part.I was too eager to place a vote I'd been wanting to for some time, yet should have waited for my case to develop and a better time to put it out there. I think the general mindset was towards a Pasch lynch, the pros and cons of doing this, and the legitimacy of the PR claim, and I feel like I just blundered in with a"hai guyz new plan, lynch dis guy"kind of vote.Hence, I retracted the vote and whistled one of those innocuous "I'm not up to anything" kind of tunes.
This is just horrendously bad.There is no such thing as mistiming when voting scum.There's no such thing as being "too eager" to place a vote. And why would town ever need to appear "innocuous"?
Actually, there is such thing as mistiming when voting scum. If you kinda suspect someone for committing an action, and you call them out on it immediately, they'll stop doing it. However, if you let them go for awhile, they'll continue to do the scumtell, making it easier to make a case on them. Along the same line, since he felt that Whiskers was scum but needed more time to make an efficient case, his votewastoo eager. And I really have no idea what you mean about appearing innocuous, so I'm going to counter it by saying, "Why would scum say they were trying to appear innocuous if it's such a scummy thing?"
I have a feeling most of that is just difference in opinion between you and pecan (and me).
Xisiqomelir wrote:By the way if you want to hear how Jake's reasoning is better than yours, viewing this paragraph as a towntell is a great example.
Well, maybe instead of piling your reasoning on top of mine for justification, you can actually comment on whatIsaid about the post.
Xisiqomelir wrote:In post 420, pieceofpecanpie wrote:My hesitation to give out reads follows a similar principle of context.It's not an unwillingness to share them, it's just I felt it would be more fruitful to keep them to myself for nowand let players keep doing what they're doing. It would help resolve a few uncertainties within my reads on certain players.
I'm not against reads or lynches, just felt my vote was counter-productive to the lynch at hand.
The bolded is quite simply anti-town because it inhibits the flow of information into the stream of town discussion. I should also note that it's a complete oxymoron.
Again, difference in opinion, and he has a legitimate reason for doing it that he's already elaborated on. Also, this isn't indicative of scum.
Xisiqomelir wrote:Thought: Scum-Pecan leads to Town-Thorandtown-Matt because he's grabbing towncred with #54. You seem to be reaching that conclusion yourself in the last sentence.
Possible. I doubt it. There are many easier ways for pecan-scum to look town than to blatantly buddy Thor.
Xisiqomelir wrote:One, he had this mindset of hiding his reads before he got wagoned, and two, he had no problem making connections even early game, like in #54.
I'd like you to re-read your last line and consider exactly which alignment would consider making RVS connections but not sharing reads.[/quote]
I was posting this hypothetically for pecan-scum.
You should respond to therestof the big paragraph.
Xisiqomelir wrote:In post 639, Klick wrote:Until I do my VCA, I'm going to be voting Snake. I feel that he's the best vote right now and needs pressure.
Flipless VCA is not a worthwhile mental exercise. Snake won't get lynched today (@everybody: That's not a threat, I actually wouldn't object to Snake dying in the least). How else will you vote?
Like I said, I was planning on doing it with my major townreads taken out of the picture. However, as of now, I would be willing to vote any of {shotgun, Jake, Axxle, Snake}.-
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In post 642, Klick wrote:Humor me - How is your ability to reason "proven" better than mine? You didn't even comment on anything I actually said about pecan.
Hey Jake, respond to this.-
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In post 655, Xisiqomelir wrote:By "the same vote-fake-out tell again" I mean that I consider every instance of a player saying "This player is worth voting" and not following that up with a vote to be scummy. I can accept using FoS' and HoS' instead if a scumread is slightly weaker. However, pecan explicitly says he still has "a reason to vote" in the opening line of #420 anddoes not vote. This is always a glaring scumtell for me.
The appeasement is pecan trying to get me to unvote him. I consider this a scum defence ("Unvote me", not "my actions were town for these reasons").
Fair enough, but I really don't find these good reasons to call someone scum. Maybe the problem is that you're trying to scumhunt objectively instead of subjectively.
Xisiqomelir wrote:Klick wrote:And I really have no idea what you mean about appearing innocuous, so I'm going to counter it by saying, "Why would scum say they were trying to appear innocuous if it's such a scummy thing?
Because they are inept at playing anti-town roles?
Dunno, I don't think you can judge that. He has three finished scum games: one where he survived and won, one where he was lynched Day 1 but won anyway, and one where he was lynched Day 2 as the last scum and lost. Not enough data to come to a conclusion on that.-
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post 666
@objective and subjective: I meant that most things are 100% indicative of scum. You're acting like some things pecan did are indicative of scum just because of the fact that he did them, when no scumtell works that way. What's scummy ishowsomeone does something. All scumtells are subjective.-
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