Khan's Wacky Xylbot Mafia (Mini 1418) - Game Over

[Leafsnail]

!vote Zang

you were the one holding up the confirmation phase so you could testsetup, right?

[Leafsnail]

Town roles that are worse than useless are pretty rare on xylbot setups. Somebody shoot him, tia.

[Leafsnail]

My role is definitely pretty rare, yep.

This isn't how you'd want to handle a negative role at all. So are you scum or what.

[Leafsnail]

So shos, why did you single me out when there are 4 other posts that one could call Role Fishing (light or otherwise)? Also, under the current situation, how exactly do you call any of them Role Fishing? If you can explain that, also explain why you would see this "Role Fishing" more likely scum motivated?

!vote: Kthxbye

poor response. Rather than shrug off the vote like most people would you've gone for a sortof passive-aggressive counterattack. This strikes me more as a desire to score points against shos than to identify his alignment.

[Leafsnail]

So instead of calling out that shos ignored other rolefishing, I was supposed to ignore it and not asked for motives behind it? How is asking for reason and clarification statements of shos anti-town? (oops, prolly should be ignoring this vote from you and...uh...not asked you to explain and....uh....not posted I guess, eh?....ah well).

Whether or not other people were doing it is irrelevant to the validity of the accusation. You could've maybe brought it up if it was bothering you so much (it shouldn't have, shos' vote was probably close to a randomvote) but it doesn't work as a response to the accusation by itself.

"Asking for reason and clarification" is ok, but it's not the thing you did.

@Obvious: Let me clear the Inferred part for you. I am voting Reck and actually don't care what his alignment is. He says he's anti-town, I don't see how that's a beneficial statement from someone beneficial to town. scum/miller/etc, death becomes him to clear the weeds.

Jesters do exist in Xylbot setups, and they're only Uncommon. So you should care about his alignment.

[Leafsnail]

Even so, I don't really feel like I agree with what you're saying here. Regardless of what Shos accused kthnx of, if at least 3-4 other people did it as well yet Shos only accuses kthnx without much...substantial reasoning (for lack of a better word), I don't see why kthnx shouldn't point out that others are. Plus, given the levity of the accusation shos did place, kthnx calling him out on this isn't a weak response at all.

It's pointing out that others are doing it as if that were a defense. It's kindof hard to explain if you just characterize his post as "calling out" or "asking for reason and clarification", but I get a distinct feeling of "Why meee??" from that post. I can't really convince you with a feeling though I guess.

Possibly. Possibly not. I have half a hankering to vote Leafsnail now, though.

[...]

Got a hankerng to vote you, too, ML.

Then do it. This is looking like a refusal to commit before others do.

Disagree. Worst case scenario is him power-crumbing/playing to jester play, and then coasting as mafia.

Not likely - there'll probably be some kind of killing role around in a 13 player Wacky game. I guess he could be a Godfather but in that case the fact that a kill failed on him would probably come out eventually and he'd die.

[Leafsnail]

Kthx's posting has improved, my previous feeling has gone. I do agree there's no real reason for Reck not to claim if he's actually town (he'd flip after death anyway, so why hide it?).

shos seems fairly town to me. His reasoning is confused and often poorly articulated but genuine-seeming so far.

This game has been surprisingly uneventful thus far.

!vote: Katsuki

[Leafsnail]

Reincarnators are annoying but lynching them doesn't help. If a guy is gonna become scum at some point I'd rather the scum use up a nightkill on it.

[Leafsnail]

!xmafia testsetup Wacky 13

Katsuki is definitely scum, by the way. Just look at all that information without any kind of commitment or analysis.

Lynching Reck is defitinitely not the best option. However, in case he is scum, I don't think that his role should make him immune to later lynches.

To clarify reincarnators are always town, so it comes down to whether you believe his claim.

[Leafsnail]

To cut down on requests to the mod I'll drop this old link here:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=12368

There are a few "secret" roles missing from the list. The ones I can remember are Advanced Doppelganger (kills people to leave a Mutilated Corpse, takes on their role and learns their night action to allow them to falseclaim, SK I think) and Thing From Beyond (has 4 one-shot kill abilities - I think they're kill, eradicate (kills and prevents revival), superkill (hits through protection and kill immunity), poison (delayed kill). SK and possibly town).

The other Xylbot hint I have is that Combat Medic is fake like 90% of the time.

scooby's posts seem pretty good, I'll put him as town for now.

Distracting from scum hunting eh Katsuki

Yeah basically.

[Leafsnail]

For the secret roles in the test setups:
- I think Sensei is a recruiting mason who can recruit one other player, and that player gets a kill.
- Darwin is either an Evolver, or he can Evolve other people, don't remember.
- Death Vigilante has a vengekill, I think? Possibly also normal vigilante powers.
- I have no idea what a Vicious Werewolf is

[Leafsnail]

Katsuki's push on Reck feels very artificial. Partly the unexplained meta, partly how the "lynch me please" thing is only being questioned now rather than when Reck was asking to be lynched.

[Leafsnail]

If his role was important to your reasoning you should have asked for it.

[Leafsnail]

PPE: very funny

You've yet to answer this btw.

That's because I have no idea. I've never played a game with you before, and I really don't value meta I haven't personally experienced all that much (plus it's not fun to read through like a dozen games and get information that can easily be very easily manipulated anyway, especially if someone is using self-meta). I was saying it looked like scum play independently of meta.

You;re fucking dim.

What does this have to with anything I've said up to this point.

If a claim could take you from "We shouldn't lynch him now" to "I don't really believe him" then why not ask for it, was what I'm getting at. I suppose it's somewhat tangential to my actual suggestion though: that the doubt you cast on Reck's earlier actions coincide with him attacking you rather than any action he performed, which seems suspiciously fake.

[Leafsnail]

You guys realize it's Reincarnator rather than Reviver, right? Reincarnator is a very different role (it sucks).

Can you explain this? I don't really see anything good with his posts.

Short, to the point, committal. "Good" is probably an overstatement, what I really mean is "town seeming".

[Leafsnail]

Then you can explain why I'm scum, other than my "not a towntell".

You are only trying to defend yourself. It's one thing to not really engage in the game and just sortof float around but you are aggressively responding to people who question you.

What makes Katsuki's lack of scumhunting worse than Reck's?

Please explain the reasoning that went into making this post.

[Leafsnail]

I question scummy and dumb people who call me scum, get called scum for "defending".

This is stupid. Firstly you haven't really made substantial attacks on the people you've defended yourself against - you called me stupid a lot and made vague implications that I could be scum, but dropped them when I changed my tone slightly. Secondly this playstyle would only work if you assume that somehow all scum are irresistibly drawn towards voting you.

[Leafsnail]

It was a question to Mr Obvious, to see if his reason for voting kat was just bullshit or not. Basically if you have a scum read on Kat for that reason imo you should have one on Reck. He doesn't.

OK, you are scum. You aren't actually considering anyone's alignment - you're just trying to score points against Mr Obvious by pointing out a "contradiction". In particular you're avoiding any actual comment on the alignment of Katsuki even though he's the leading wagon

and

you're mentioning him here, instead preferring to vaguely attack someone on the wagon.

!vote: The Mini-Librarian

[Leafsnail]

Yeah, it's "bastard" because it was generated by a machine and thus potentially not balanced, not because the mod is actively trying to fuck with us (what I'd think of when I hear the term bastard).

Can everyone have a quick look at TML's posting, please? In my eyes it seems like he isn't really trying to discern alignments so much as stay out of trouble and undermine people.

[Leafsnail]

@Scooby I'm not actually voting Katsuki now, I switched to TML.

leafsnail- You're case against TML does make sense but I would rather lynch MrObvious.

Fair enough, I don't think MrObvious is a bad lynch by any means. I disagree on Scooby though, his posts have screamed town to me even if I don't really agree with his conclusion.

Incidentally:

I see it. It's as if TML is dismissing Reck's claim.

Null:

+The_Mini-Librarian

Care to explain this one, MrObvious?

I'm not seeiing what leaf sees in 269. It looks like a valid question to me.

It's sortof a valid question (not really though due to Reck's claim). That isn't the point though - my issue is that the motivation behind asking this question, and TML's play as a whole, seems extremely suspect. It looks more like he's pressing players for openings (and thus mislynch possibilities) than trying to discern alignments.

[Leafsnail]

!vote MrObvious

He's transparently going for jester WIFOM because I mentioned it earlier.

@TML: Yeah, guess you were right about him. Sorry.

[Leafsnail]

[quote="In post 388, MrObvious"][/quote]
Are you trying to fake a post restriction in a setup that has no post restrictions?

[Leafsnail]

Then what the heck are you trying to achieve by claiming a nonexistant mafia role if not to jester WIFOM

[Leafsnail]

The breadcrumb you claimed to have made

[Leafsnail]

@Scooby he's going for jester WIFOM. Reck asked to get lynched and didn't, he's going for the same thing.

MrObvious, I'm going to just have one guess: Double Voter due to your unvoting. If you are a double voter please demonstrate it. Otherwise you can go die.

[Leafsnail]

Seriously, would a scum doctor claim Mafia Juggernaut?

Would a town doctor claim mafia juggernaut?

The answer is no, it's only something mafia would do for stupid WIFOM purposes.

[Leafsnail]

Are you saying that jesters are mafia?

I can tell you are not a jester.

[Leafsnail]

So, what am I now?

Mafia! Maybe a doctor too, why not.

I don't see how you can be acting high and mighty when you literally claimed scum.

[Leafsnail]

Of Course! Because if I don't want to reveal my role, the first thing that I think of is to fake claim as mafia. (sarcasm)

While at L-2 and thus not actually in danger of being forced to claim yet

[Leafsnail]

How the hell did the one guy (me) who was ready to lynch MO so hard after the AtE BS become the only one not wanting to consider lynching MO

Because you are dumb and don't seem to realize that a doctor has a 50/50 chance of being mafia/town in this setup. Seriously, check the test setups, it's basically a perfect split.

If you need an answer to the question "Why would scum do something that might trick people into thinking their town?" then, well.

[Leafsnail]

Should be "they're" in that last line.

[Leafsnail]

Actually I was thinking very clearly. In my obvious fake Mafia Juggernaut claim, I included a clue how to find my breadcrumb. I was hoping a townie or two on my wagon would pick up on it and remove their vote without revealing my true role to scum.

This is absolutely horrible play, never ever ever ever

EVER

do it again. I wouldn't have put you to L-1 if you didn't claim scum, so all you did was force yourself to claim.

There's no way to give a message specifically to town. If it's possible for a townie to decode your message (it wasn't because it just looked like a couple of typos) then it's also possible for the mafia. Being mafia doesn't suddenly make you less able to crack codes.

After reconsidering I think I can just about see the town motivation behind it now though, even if it was really awful

!vote: TML

@kthnx: Out of the current wagons I think you have the greatest chance of flipping scum (barring Mr. Obv. who I'm not lynching.) We really need to consider consildating our wagons here.

Are you saying you think MrObvious has the greatest chance of not flipping?

[Leafsnail]

EBWOP: "flipping scum?"

[Leafsnail]

Does Katsuki constantly appeal to self-meta in all of his past games?

[Leafsnail]

Reads (vaguely in order from most town to most scummy)
Scooby: town, all of his stuff so far has looked like genuine attempts to attack scum
Zang: similar but he makes good points sometimes too
Kthxbye: probably town? His recent posts have been ok.
MrObvious: leaning town, now that I've extracted his tortured thread of logic his actions make more sense from a town PoV. He needs to stop playing like this though.
serrapaladin/Reck: also leaning town, I found Reck's claim fairly credible even if serra's recent posts aren't great.
wind-up: leaning town, haven't gone into much depth with his posts but what I've seen has been townish.

TML: Leaning scum for reasons expressed before.
Katsuki: Scum, I don't buy the self-meta and his entire play has been based around self-preservation (the thing scum needs to win) and insulting people in the hope they'll leave him alone
Voidedmafia: Scum - see below. It boils down to most of his stuff being "posting about other people posting about people's alignments" rather than "posting about people's alignments" (also I don't like his posts about other people's alignments but that can wait for now)

The others I haven't really made much of an impression on me and I need to go and check their posts at some point. Out of the currently viable lynches I'd by far prefer TML.

You are so scum.

I agree. I don't think I can get a VM lynch through today, but I'm going to try and lay out some of my case now for tomorrow anyway

Point one:

Observation

: Voidedmafia has a lot of posts, but the vast majority of his content has been attacking points made by other players without making any of his own in return.

Evidence

: Check VM's ISO. Ignore posts 0-2, as these are random-ish posts. Then keep going from there.
3-5 are attacking a point Katsuki made.
6-8 are correcting something Kthxbye said and talking about the quotes afterwards.
(9)
10 is attacking a point somebody made, I'm really not sure who though. VM never follows up this question.
(11)
12 attacks a point I made, questions Lucky and attacks a point TML made. There's a response to a question too but it's backed away from later
13 attacks a point shos made
14 criticizes shos's phoneposting
15 is still about that same point shos made, also talking to Katsuki. At least there's an opinion in this one but it's not particularly analysed or anything.
(16, 17)
18, 19 still criticizing shos's point
20 attacks three of TML's points and sortof says some other vague stuff
(21)
22, 23, 24 attack a point by MrObvious. Also defends lucky, but mainly via attacking a point about "filler"
(25,26)
27 attacks a thing Katsuki is doing
(28)
29 attacking things TML said
(30)
31 criticizing something I said, again to defend Lucky (I wasn't attacking him in any way)
32, 33 criticizing a suggestion by Katsuki
and that's about as much ISO as I can handle for now. VM is still doing the same kind of thing now, for instance in ISO 64 and 67. The take home message from this is that the majority of VM's posting has been to make attacks on things that other people have said, with actually attacks on other people being rare. It should also be noted that there is no real followup to the vast majority of these attacks.

I am not necessarily questioning the validity of these criticisms (most have at least some merit to them), but note that they do not in and of themselves help to find mafia or generate discussion that could find mafia.

Why this is scummy

: VM has a relatively high postcount in this game. However, I do not see him as generating discussion. What he's doing is closer to shutting down discussion - shooting down other people's points without replacing them with any of his own, or trying to create points out of the shot down ones. This creates tonnes of posts quibbling about the particulars of various arguments, but at the expense of posts that are actually about other people's alignments.

I believe this is far better explained by a "VM is scum" theory than a "VM is town" theory.
Under "VM is scum" the reason is simple. VM can look active, and unlike in more lazy forms of active lurking most of his posts when viewed individually look perfectly valid. He can also reduce the amount of discussion going on and thus reduce the town's chance of finding scum, and make it so that instead VIs get lynched. Finally if somebody struggles to argue coherently he can go for a lynch on them by continuing to push his point until they unravel (as with MrObvious).

The "VM is town" theory has problems. Primarily the fact that I don't see a townie attacking so many points without looking at the alignments of the people making those points or the alignments of the people contained in those points. It's simply contrary to the goal of a town player.

I was going to say more about his votes and other posts and how they're really opportunistic looking but I'm kindof running out of energy so that can wait for later, look forward to it!!

When I have people like you who still have yet to point out how what I'm doing makes me scum despite calling me scum, why not?

Because scum can win just by defending themselves and not doing any actual scumhunting (like you're doing), wheras town players require scumhunting to win (like you're not doing). I put absolutely zero stock in self-meta arguments because if you're aware of your own meta you can manipulate it.

[Leafsnail]

Further reads:
shos - townish, his posts just have a genuine feel to them.

Shmugen - leaning scum, he's done a very good job of evading attention from everyone by doing nothing particularly notable and I don't like that.

1.) I am aware that there are some queries that I haven't done the best at following up on (shos is probably one of the more egregious, though I have been pushing on him more as of late due to what perieve as a misrep of kthnx's post). I have been putting my attention more on Obvious at the moment, hence why they've been put on the wayside. I woukd like to note that I have been harping on Scooby as well lately. That's not to say that you're entirely wrong here, but you're not as right as you think you are.
2.) I've been talking about Obv's contradiction (and he's been denying it) often enough that the lack of discussion there is not my fault. People have had plenty of time to comment on the towniness/scumminess of my attack, and other than kthnx's estranged cry about it no one has been talking about it. Again, that is perfect discusion ammo that has been her for most of latter half of the game that

no one is trying to use

.
3.) I would heavily assert that I haven't been trying to stifle discussion. Yes, I haven't been on the ball in regards to following up any potential leads, but some points that I have brought up (that have a decent amoiunt of merit) weren't responded to decently/recently enough to it. Again, there can be a lack in follow-up on my part to push these points, but there have been points where I've tried to start things that have not been picked up by the other, or dropped by them. Iso 27, 28, and 33; 38; 48; and my debate with shos starting on ISO 62 all indicate points where I've tried to start discussion, which for some is the opposite of what you 've tried to assert.

Have I been making posts where I say "X is town/scum?" Well, obviously not. But I feel like some of my suspects are clear through what I've
posted about them (obv, shos, and scooby primarily, with kat thrown in the rear.)

I don't deny you have been making some contributions to the game too, and in some cases as follow-ons from your attacks on people's points. However I don't really like those contributions either: looking at that scumlist (which I never found particularly clear? You attacked points from almost everyone so it was hard to tell) you've basically got the 3 easiest people to lynch, and then the person who is pissing everyone the hell off. This was the second point I wanted to make.

I think this is an issue because I suspect that you're essentially trying to get lynches through beating people in arguments. It's something I do in my own scum games: identify players who trip up a lot when forming arguments, beat them in an argument, then use the fact that you've beaten them in an argument to get a lynch. A lot of players confuse losing in an argument to being scum, so this often works. This was my tactic throughout 20th Century Philosophy Mafia, incidentally, and shos was one of my targets.

You might claim that this is coincidental, but I'm not really buying it. I don't see where you're getting "these people are scum" from in your reads - I can certainly see "this person slipped up", but not why you'd then go on to see them as scum. I'll try and explain this point in more detail later with specific examples.

So overall: attacking other people's points both allows you to shoot down discussion started by other people and to go after the people who are bad at responding to questions, while also making you look fairly town to a casual reader and making it hard to find an opening to attack you with. As the vast majority of your game has consisted of attacking other people's points or using mistakes other people make after you attacked their points to attack them I believe you are scum.

I don't agree with it all ,obviously I disagree with the scooby being town. I mean he's not paying attention or even pretending to pay attention to this game, he is tunneling town and humiliating himself for it, and he's trying to use deadline to make someone 3 votes away from lynch to hard claim. I honestly don't see how any of these actions are town motivated.

Try to turn it around: how are those actions scum motivated (in particular what would make scum not pay attention to the game)? I think it's more indicative of an angry and incoherent player with not much time. I would expect such a player to act in a way that attracts less attention as scum.

That said, I think making you claim wouldn't actually have been a bad move if the deadline were 24 hours away (although now it's 3 days away that isn't true). It would be silly to lynch a player without even giving them a chance to claim.

@Leaf: Is the reason why you're still voting me the reason I think it is?

Because you are the only suspect I have who has a decent chance of being lynched today? Yes.

Did you base your whole case off of his entire iso or just this portion?

Good question: the answer is to some degree neither. The case was based on a vague feeling that kept building with each of VM's posts, but in order to try and make it into something that other people could understand I went for a partial ISO case. I think the general trend continues in the rest of VM's ISO too.

[Leafsnail]

Going to sleep soom, so only short-ish responses.

Shos: explain how the length of a response correlates or is porportional to the stretchiness of the case.

Leaf.
1.) Apologies for the vagueness of my reads, that is my fault. I can try to provide a more concrete set of my reads once i can access a computer with a working keyboard.
2.) Of the three scumspects I mentioned, the only one I really think is scum is Obv. Shos is not as defined, but I believe he is possible scum as well.
As for Kat, well, maybe her playstyle seems scummy to me, i wont deny that tbat might be iinterferiing with my read. But while she is doing a bang-up job if pissing people off, i just havent seen much attempts to really get into things, and i think that we can agree that repeating one question, no matter how good it is, doesnt make one town at least.
3.) Re "lynching through winning" I'd like to point out that for my main suspect, Obv, I only became suspicious of him after he tried to do what i percieved as changing his story. As i noted in my ISO, i wasnt suspicious when the original misrep claim was put forth.
though, if you have specific examples, I'm certainly interested in seeiing them.

The fact that you're only got one scumread and a couple of "maybes but I haven't got any real arguments for why their scum" is kindof damning. You've certainly been posting enough to have at least a bit more, even if it's gut reads.

An example: shos. You're listing him as "possible scum", but I can't see any reason why. You've attacked some things he's said, and got him to make a couple of mistakes, but I don't see any kind of scum motivation from him, nor even where you'd get that from. You also didn't list him as a suspect until I challenged you over it, then you listed him as a suspect, then you kindof unlisted him again after I challenged you again. This is bad because it seems like you're just pulling out reads when someone else asks for them.

Good focuses would be MrObvious, kthnx, scooby, kat, and maybe shos

TML is your partner.

[Leafsnail]

You voted him earlier, but then the read just sortof vanished. You even didn't list him in the "good focuses" list in spite of the fact that he's one of the leading wagons.

[Leafsnail]

Poisoner is a non-mafia and easily confirmed role so it would be pretty stupid to lynch Kthx. The point about TML's jump being bad and opportunistic is true too, you should take a good look at it Scooby.

[Leafsnail]

Poison happens on the following morning. I'm pretty sure it has a separate death message ("So and so has died of poison") which is convenient as a) that would confirm Kthx as non-mafia and b) if Reck was telling the truth it would confirm that too (there's a mafia role that can fake dying and coming back to life, but it can't do that with poison).

[Leafsnail]

Hmm.

So basicalky poisoner is like a weak vig? As in.vig who sends the kill during the day?

I wouldn't say weak - vigs can be 0% (ie their actions always fail) while I don't think poisoners can. Also they can't be blocked by anything except a Poison Doctor (well other than disablers but we'd already know about those), which is a vanishingly rare role when compared to roleblockers or docs. It is somewhat weaker than day vig though.

[Leafsnail]

His lack of care about Obv's alignment can be disconcerting

This is true. In fact I'd go further and say he has a consistent lack of care about basically everybody's alignment.

Obv - as you said
Reck - states that serrapaladin made "perhaps the single most scummy post in the game", then doesn't follow this up in any way. Also the "Compare Reck to Katsuki without considering the alignment of either" thing.
Katsuki - "I defientely don't want him around later", has made no statement on his alignment and his read doesn't seem to have changed from null
luckyjt - as you said he called his question filler but didn't call him scum or explain why he was scum or anything

The only real reads I can see from him at all recently are on Kthx (no supporting reasoning at all, non-committal, opportunistic looking) and him saying he doesn't see you as scum. Incidentally

It would be amazing if someone shot Reck tonight.

Yeah. Unless I'm reading this softclaim wrong, I still want kthnx dead. In fact I actually want him dead more.

Oh, a poisoner. Grrrr. Read the softclaim wrong (thought you were claiming vig...)

How do you reconcile these three statements, TML?

[Leafsnail]

@zang: It at least eliminates the possibility of Reck having the Ken Kesey role (mafia, can fake death and revive in the night).

[Leafsnail]

Wait a second.

@leafsnail: why didn't you mention that poisoner could be a sk?

I said non-mafia, because it's a role that cannot be mafia (or part of any other scum grouping, ie the main threat in these games). If a poisoner were a town only role I would have said "town only".

Re: my thoughts about vig and so forth.

The chances are very high that anyone with a normal shot this game is scum. That's why the softclaim made me question him more.

The first quote is more of me complaining about the uselessness of the slot than anything else.

...What? Where did you get that idea from?

[Leafsnail]

Hell fucking no he isn't the lynch. A double-townie suicide is the last thing I want.

I agree, but that has nothing to do with anything considering TML is scum

[Leafsnail]

I guess if TML's telling the truth lynching him would definitely kill a townie, and if he isn't then he's shafted later. Might as well hold off for now.

Also the deadline is in about 21 hours, check the OP.

Need to be efficient here.

WOULD YOU GUYS TAKE A ZANG LYNCH, AND IF NOT WHY NOT???

No, he looks town.

You're also basing your conclusion on siblings on a sample size of 1, so it's pretty invalid.

And you're going after Zang purely because he might vote for you so I think that makes you a pretty good compromise lynch

!vote: Katsuki

I'll consider AJ as a possibility too.

[Leafsnail]

YES IM VOTING ZANG PURELY BECAUSE HE CALLED ME SCUM HURR DURR

Yep, that you are. And pretty blatantly at that!

Your thing about Zang browsing this forum is kindof stupid considering he could be, like, writing a post

If kthx is SK, there is most likely only 1 scumteam, in which it is likely that there is a scum sibling.
If no SK, possibility of multiball is highly probable, in which siblings are most definitely town if indeed multiball.

The first is kindof true, but we've seen a multiball setup with an SK and we don't have that large a sample size.

The second is laughable because YOU'RE BASING IT ON A SAMPLE SIZE OF ONE. You might as well conclude that a coin will always land on heads if you toss it in the rain because well, I just did it in the rain and it came up heads.

[Leafsnail]

AJ isn't a bad lynch, I might go for him.

And the deadline is in 20 hours, so I admire your dedication in sticking around that long Scooby.

You're either a fucking terrible player or scum, but either way all you're spewing false bullshit.

The first thing I said is demonstrably true.

||| MAFIABOT || [wacky] mafia: Godfather, Mafioso; sk: Gunman with a Conscience; town: Day Cop, Sensei, Echo, Cop, Secret Role (Robot), Mutant, Amnesiac (Elite Bodyguard), One-Shot Role Cop; wolf: Beta Werewolf, Alpha Werewolf

Multiball, and an SK.

The second thing I said is also true - out of the 13 player setups generated only

one

of them involves siblings. I don't see how can from that SINGLE example conclude that there can never be a mafia sibling in a multiball game.

As for the setup, LEARN FUCKING SETUP BALANCE BEFORE YOU TALK. EVEN AS A BOT IT'S NOT GOING TO PUMP OUT SETUPS THAT GIVE TOWN NO CHANCE TO WIN WHEN THE OBJECTIVE IS EV OF 50.

You are quite simply wrong. There's the Lich SK role, for instance, which is virtually unkillable, and it's fairly common for a 6 player setup to have a lone scum with a one-shot kill (EV: 20% scum, 80% town). Xylbot really isn't remotely as smart as you seem to be assuming it is (particularly in Wacky where there's barely any balance check at all), and it

definitely

does not run any kind of EV check. I think at most it does some kind of "power points" check, but the power points assigned to each role aren't always accurate and in Wacky it's massively relaxed (or possibly completely gone?) anyway.

I also don't even see how a mafia sibling in multiball would instantly break a setup anyway.

Finally, I'm ok with you being wrong but please don't be wrong and condescending at the same time, it's really embarrassing to read!

[Leafsnail]

Also note: the SK in the quoted setup is hilariously screwed. His kill fails 50% of the time and he's surrounded on all sides by power roles. I'd put his win chance at less than 5%. Satisfied that Xylbot doesn't check EV very well yet, at least in Wacky?

[Leafsnail]

Deadline: (expired on 2013-02-20 19:12:32)

Am I the only one seeing this? It's in 20 hours. Kthx misread it.

That said I might as well switch to AJ now if the Katsuki lynch isn't taking (a lynch on him tomorrow would be good considering the unbelievable shittiness of his recent posts)

!vote: Aj_The_Epic

[Leafsnail]

MrObvious: sometimes one sibling is mafia, the rest of the time both are town. That's definitely what it means. He was also pretty clearly using "lover" as a way to explain the role.

[Leafsnail]

Judging by the trial setups, siblings are conftown.

We have had ONE trial setup where both siblings are town. One. Seriously.

[Leafsnail]

And, to add to earlier reads: MrO is cleared by scum Void. Probably cleared by scum Zang. Kthx is town, Leaf is town. TML is cleared by scum Void/Zang. Hell, all the strings seem to be cleared if one is scum.

There's a high probability of multiball in this game, so "These two people are not scum with each other" does not imply "These two people are not both scum".

I fully agree with you on VM, but I think there's a decent enough chance of you being on the other scumteam (due to your weird push on Zang and the somewhat contradictory seeming reactions to the different claims) to make you the best available lynch today.

Are you admitting that you were wrong about 788?

He was but you are playing so unbelievably badly that I can see why Zang was confused (he wrongly made the assumption that you were playing in a way that made any sense at all). Please shut up about this point.

[Leafsnail]

You are in a position to hammer, dude. You have no right to complain.

[Leafsnail]

"It would be really bad for there to be a no lynch

Wait why are you making sure there's a lynch??"

Katsuki is scum due to the whole "Anyone who thinks I'm scum is scum and I will not contribute anything else except wrong speculation about the setup and condescension" but he's right on this point.

[Leafsnail]

12 relevant setups have been generated in the thread. Of those 8 had two scumteams (I'm counting mafia, mafia2, werewolves and cult as scumteams here), and one of those 8 also had a serial killer.

Of the four remaining setups two had an SK and one had two SKs.

So from our current results that's 2/3 chance of multiple scumteams, and 11/12 chance of there being at least two competing scum factions. I think this is sufficient to kill "These two people don't look like scum together so they can't both be scum".

[Leafsnail]

It was Katsuki. There was no exclamation mark directly in front of his vote, so only the unvote was recognised. That's pretty mean, we'll have to watch out for it in future.

Incidentally,

!vote: Katsuki

.

[Leafsnail]

I'd like a Katsuki or TML lynch today. The TML sibling bomb will go off at some point if he's telling the truth about his role, and I'd rather it happen sooner rather than later/whenever the mafia want it to.

The only set with a doc, prisoner, and survivor has me as an sk. I'm a town prisoner and there was no reinc in that either. There also weren't any vt roles in that set IIRC.

The sets aren't very useful without a mc IMO.

The testsetups give us a rough idea of how much scum is in the game. However, you can't meta much more because Xylbot is very flexible on Wacky mode, with few balance checks. It's virtually a closed setup.

[Leafsnail]

No, I think Katsuki's scum for the same reasons as yesterday. The non-vote may have been intentional but there's no way of knowing that.

[Leafsnail]

!vote: Shmugen

, oops forgot about him. He isn't even calling people scum.

kthx is pretty much guaranteed to be town what with survivor + number of kills last night

Not really. We've seen SK/Mafia/Survivor setups, and all it would take is a town vigilante to produce the result seen last night (VM would be a decent vigkill).

[Leafsnail]

Serra isn't proven, he's just as likely to be scum as town.

Oh right, no poison message. That might be a feature of the game, but it does mean that kthx is also in no way confirmed due to the

Ken Kesey

role. That role would also explain the excess of kills last night, and maybe also why Katsuki is trying to say kthx is confirmed town so much

[Leafsnail]

Katsuki is apparently pretty good at wacky xylbot balance and believes we are in multiball.

Katsuki is not good at wacky xylbot balance. Everything Katsuki said on the subject yesterday was wrong, and today hasn't been much better.

Your summary of wind-up's case is such a pathetic misrep it doesn't even deserve a response.

[Leafsnail]

Katsuki made incorrect claims about the setup in #713, and when challenged by me dug down and expressed an incorrect viewpoint about how Xylbot works. That to me suggests a not very thorough understanding of Xylbot balance. I've actually discussed this stuff with #mafia mods a bit, and while my knowledge is a long way from perfect I have a vague idea of it.

The "kthnx is pretty much guaranteed to be town" thing is wrong too, and I find that one kindof suspicious. Again, suggests not being good at Xylbot balance.

The misrep part referred to your summary of wind-up's case and has nothing to do with Katsuki at all.

[Leafsnail]

I already debunked your "disproving" of my "incorrect claim" when you took a multiball setup with SK and shit that did NOT have siblings in it (aka an entirely different setup), thanks.

The claim which you actually made:

If kthx is SK, there is most likely only 1 scumteam

, in which it is likely that there is a scum sibling.

The bolded part is demonstrably wrong, and I showed that. You have now retroactively decided to change your claim to

If kthx is SK and a sibling exists in the setup, there is most likely only 1 scumteam, in which it is likely that there is a scum sibling.

I can't

disprove

this new claim because it's a

really specific case

and we only have 11 testsetups to go on. However, I'd like to point out you have zero evidence in favour of it other than random guesswork. I disproved your original claim because it was doable, but really the way it's meant to work is that you provide concrete evidence for any claims about a setup, not that we assume what you say is right until someone proves it wrong.

(for the record, I'm pretty sure Xylbot will shove siblings into any old setup without caring about the balance on wacky. It puts Gunman With a Conscience and Crazed Fiend into difficult SK slots afterall)

[Leafsnail]

I already debunked your "disproving" of my "incorrect claim" when you took a multiball setup with SK and shit that did NOT have siblings in it (aka an entirely different setup), thanks.

The claim which you actually made:

If kthx is SK, there is most likely only 1 scumteam

, in which it is likely that there is a scum sibling.

The bolded part is demonstrably wrong, and I showed that. You have now retroactively decided to change your claim to

If kthx is SK and a sibling exists in the setup, there is most likely only 1 scumteam, in which it is likely that there is a scum sibling.

I can't

disprove

this new claim because it's a

really specific case

and we only have 11 testsetups to go on. However, I'd like to point out you have zero evidence in favour of it other than random guesswork. I disproved your original claim because it was doable, but really the way it's meant to work is that you provide concrete evidence for any claims about a setup, not that we assume what you say is right until someone proves it wrong.

(for the record, I'm pretty sure Xylbot will shove siblings into any old setup without caring about the balance on wacky. It puts Gunman With a Conscience and Crazed Fiend into difficult SK slots afterall)

[Leafsnail]

Shmugen is scum. Including the word "Town" in his roleclaim plus forgetting to claim an action seals it pretty hard.

You didn't. You took a setup with no sibling in it.

Your argument relied on two premises.

1. If kthx is SK, there is most likely only 1 scumteam, or "If SK then there is most likely only 1 scumteam"
2. If there is only one scumteam then it is likely there is a scum sibling

1. is demonstrably wrong and kills your conclusion. We've had a relatively small number of testsetups and we've already seen a case with an SK and two scumteams, suggesting it isn't actually all that unlikely.

2. isn't demonstrably wrong but it is based on no actual evidence at all.

If you destroy a premise (or in this cases both premises) of an argument you destroy the conclusion too. I don't need to smash both premises with the same setup.

[Leafsnail]

@AJ: Ken Kesey. Do not forget about the Ken Kesey role, because it's the kind of role that causes town to lose games if they forget about it. Here it is for anyone who hasn't looked it up yet:

Ken Kesey (survivor, mafia; super-rare; 4+ players): You can fake your own death at night. You die and then return to life. Actions: suicide

It says "super-rare" but I've seen it come up a few times and I think wacky puts in rare roles more often, possibly?

The vig is also a possibility because they'd have no way of knowing whether kthx was lying and no reason to out him. Just to be clear, here are some possible scenarios with kthx not town:
1. kthx is an SK and poisons serra. A vig/any other killing role kills MO or VM (probably VM). The mafia kills the other one. This setup only needs an SK, a survivor and one mafia team which is perfectly plausible.
2. kthx and serra are both mafia, and serra is a Ken Kesey. serra activates his ability, mafia kills somebody and the other kill could be from an SK/vig/opposing mafia faction, it doesn't matter.

I still think kthx is probably town but people rushing to confirm someone based on an incomplete knowledge of a setup is bad and can single-handedly lose a game.

@LeafSnail: I added town BECAUSE the role could be anything. Seems like damned if I do, damned if I don't. If I add town, I'm trying to steer away from scum possibilities, if I leave it out I'm trying to ignore the scum possibilities.

Roles aren't actually named like that is the thing though.

@LeafSnail/Kthx: I delayed Voided last night and didn't see much purpose to saying so at the claim, considering there was a small chance someone would try harder to get me killed claiming to have been delayed. I did not want to dissuade them.

There are two things wrong with this.

1. Your explanation for delaying the action claim doesn't make sense. Why the heck would a mafia player risk exposing themselves in a lie in order to help you by proving your role?
I think you were hoping to avoid having to claim an action at all, because your actual action was either a delay against an obv-town player or "mafiakill".

2. Why delay VM? The only thing you said about him day one is that my case on him didn't leave a lasting impression. Surely you'd want to delay someone who was in your lynch pool so you'd have a greater chance of exposing a mafia member.
I think it's because out of the two players who are too dead to contest your claim VM is the only one you could logically have delayed, since you couldn't really have claimed to have delayed a claimed doctor.

[Leafsnail]

TML

[Leafsnail]

Is this a popcorn-style claim? IE shos gets to choose the next person?

Is there any chance Shmugen's flip could be a lie? Could he be mafia or a wolf that flipped town? I'm serious.

Wolf - definitely not. Werewolves are pretty vanilla, I think the only things they ever have are cop immunity and kill immunity while the beta werewolf is alive.

Mafia - almost certainly not. There is a mafia death antimiller (Pillar of the Community) but in a non-multirole game I'm pretty sure that would show up as a townie.

SK - SK antimiller exists, but in a non-multirole game I think that would probably show up as "townie" too.

By the same logic I think both our flipped scum have to be actual scum - death millers show up as goons and wolf death millers don't exist.

So, that means that out of our remaining playerlist it's almost certain that two scum exist: 1 partnered with TML, and 1 partnered with scooby. There is also the possibility that serra came back as scum on top of that - however, I'm pretty sure serra cannot be one of the original scumteam due to his revival (now that we know he was targetted by an actual kill). I don't think kthnx is an SK and he seems to have demonstrated his killing power, so I'll take him off the list of "original scum" too.

So, 2 scum among:

wind-up
Leafsnail
Aj_The_Epic
shos

I am not scum, so that means only one out of wind-up, Aj and shos are town.

Hell, poison me. It's really a better answer than a lynch on me, for one reason: You already know who wagoned me.

This is looking kindof suspicious to me now we know that an alpha werewolf exists. Alpha werewolves are immune to kills as long as the Beta werewolf is alive, so poison would be far preferable to a lynch for him.

I'd probably go for wind-up before shos as our last mafia member (shos is looking relatively town to me) but I should go check interactions with TML and see wind-up's claim before making a real decision. Coward can be a mafia role too though so shos' claim doesn't help much.

[Leafsnail]

Scooby's interactions with AJ is a good point, I forgot about that entirely.

On that note, we can't assume two two-man teams of scum, one because this game is slightly bastard and two because Serra is here still.

The setup isn't really "bastard". It was created by an unthinking robot which doesn't have many balance checks. There are some bastard roles in it but no intentionally misleading elements, and I'm pretty sure no single person mafia teams generate in larger games (they'd be SKs instead). Particularly you'd never get a beta werewolf without an alpha.

A quick look at TML's interactions with the suspects:

1. wind-up/dymyshottyizsik
As far as I can tell TML says nothing about wind-up.

wind-up goes straight for TML as soon as he replaces in. He does drop it after the sibling claim, but his vote on TML seemed fairly honest to me.

2. Aj_The_Epic/Luckyjt
TML was clearly happy to push the day one wagon towards AJ after his claim left people unwilling to lynch him, and before that also voted Luckyjt. He was also happy to try for another AJ lynch on day two. It looks far more like a mafia member jumping aboard a mislynch than a bus to me. I also don't think TML would want to bus his buddy when multiple people had expressed a desire to kill him later, and also he has a negative role that may result in him getting killed randomly even if nobody tried to kill him. It would basically be suicide.

AJ was weirdly defensive of TML for all of his posts. I don't see this as particularly scummy though. Basically if that mafia team were to attempt a bussing move it would surely make a lot more sense in the opposite direction (lynch the guy who has a crippling negative role that would make his lone victory extremely unlikely), and this relationship is exactly backwards for that.

3. shos
TML asks shos a couple of questions and expresses vague doubt of him, but never once votes for him. He also says that Lucky is "worse than shos", which is weird since he had never really made a proper attack on shos. From then on he only talked about some points shos made, never about shos himself or shos's alignment.

shos had that awkward rolefishing thing at the start of the game where he overlooked TML. I still think the whole rolefishing argument was stupid, but it does suggest he didn't want to talk about TML unless he had to.
In #260 TML is one of his "top suspects". However TML seems to drop off his reads list for no discernable reason, and by 598 he's questioning why there would even be a wagon against him. Then after the wind has left the sails of the TML wagon he's back on him with a vote.
He expresses that TML would be a good target in day 2, but...
- He opens with an AJ vote
- He goes for scooby instead later, then Shmugen

Conclusion: going by interactions,

shos

is likely to be the second mafia member. The TML/AJ interactions feel totally wrong, and while wind-up/TML isn't out of the question the TML/shos interactions seem far more suspicious. It looks a lot like TML was trying to avoid making any attack on shos (the member of the mafia team who would have to stay alive), while shos distanced himself from his doomed partner (although avoiding taking any action likely to directly endanger his partner).

"Coward" is a valid mafia role too, so that fits fine.

I'll look more at scooby next time. My initial impression is that

wind-up

is actually be the worst guy out of the three - shos attacked scooby fairly consistently, while scooby was constantly after the lucky/AJ slot. wind-up on the other hand talked about scooby, and even implied he was scum with shos, but never made any direct attack on him and opposed his lynch. Meanwhile scooby virtually ignored the wind-up slot altogether, only saying "i want to hear more from the replacement" and listing him on a list of 4 people who might have scum in them (and not following it up). This strikes me as a very suspicious interaction. It overrides the poison thing which could well be a coincidence I guess.

Overall conclusion: judging by interactions,

shos

seems like the best mafia candidate and

wind-up

the best werewolf candidate. That would make AJ probably town. serra I have no idea, I'm hoping scum take him out due to him being a potential competitor.

[Leafsnail]

Actually we have poison, so I suppose we could actually effectively lynch three people anyway.

[Leafsnail]

Yeah. Although if serra came back with a kill that doesn't actually work.

[Leafsnail]

A reincarnator can come back as any role, even "serial killer" or "arsonist" or whatever. There were no kills unaccounted for last night but it's possible you targeted a person who was dying anyway or laid low. It is pretty unlikely though, admittedly - I'd say lynching the original scum is a higher priority and it would probably be preferable to poison someone tonight anyway.

[Leafsnail]

It's

very

hard to outguess Xylbot on what roles it would put in a setup. This is partly because I think the balance rules are relaxed for Wacky, and partly because a lot of the role weightings are off (or non-applicable - eg roles helpful in small games are not always helpful in big games) in the first place. Like I'm not sure if the reincarnator would even count as anti-town since it revives and it's

usually

helpful. Also it's easier to find scum in IRC so setups tend to be more mafia favoured in the first place (eg 2 mafia members in a 6 player nightstart is standard, although there is also a possibility of 1 scum with a one-shot kill, again showing how hard it is to outguess the bot).

I'm gonna seriously lol at a me & tml scumteam. If I recall correctly, when the question was should we lynch TML or someone else last day, I was the one going for TML. memory serves even better; I explicitly said that considering the fact that the other sibling hasn't come forward - a TML lynch has GOT to give us a scum flip. I'm 150% sure I said that. I'll even look it up for you.

I acknowledged this. But the fact is you didn't vote him until after he was out of danger on day one, and in spite of the noises you made day two you never voted for him then either. In addition, the guy was basically doomed by his role, so you knew he was almost certainly going to die eventually anyway. You had to distance yourself from him as much as possible but didn't want to actually directly kill him, is the impression I'm getting. The fact that TML was reluctant to look at your alignment is also pretty damning, since he as the doomed member wouldn't want to bus the member with a better chance of survival.

Your sibling reasoning was wrong, and also actually kindof suspicious. It would be easier for you to keep TML alive if you knew who his sibling was, and you were essentially strongly encouraging his sibling to come forwards.

I'm kinda pissed now, more likely not because of the game but this is why this comes out this way. why the hell is the lynch pool three people including me? I see no reason to negate Serra, wind, and Aj from the pool, and I don't think you guys got it but, if we don't hit scum today we're offing 1 lynched, 1 poisoned, and probably 2 killed. this is effectively as bad as lylo. even if we do hit one scum we get to a 3p lylo with the other.

in other words, I think we should aim to have both scums alive dead by tomorrow. Leaf, if you're going to start working, do it right. I know, I'm not the one to talk, but I'm trying the best I can with the time I have which is little. you can't go throguh ISOs and pick only

half

the interactions of people with people.

I didn't negate wind or Aj from the pool - they were in it with you. Serra was not looked at because he died and came back to life. No wolf role can do this, and while one mafia role can

fake

it that wouldn't explain how he tanked the poison. He can be scum now, but he's definitely not one of the original mafia/wolf teams, meaning it's less likely. kthx was not looked at because he's pretty much a confirmed killer and I really don't think there can be an SK in this setup now. I was not looked at because I know my own alignment.

I agree we should kill both scum by tomorrow. That's why I'm looking at the

most relevant

interactions (the ones between dead scum and live scum suspects).

[Leafsnail]

shos: Reck claimed reincarnator day one, and serra confirmed that was the case when he replaced in. He claimed the role he revived as in #1012 and #1013.

He is pretty much confirmed to have a reviving role, which is a thing no team scum has. That is why he isn't in the lynch pool - if we lynch him then there will definitely be a mafia member and a wolf alive tonight.

[Leafsnail]

hoo.. only now I understand your point about Serra. well this should be much harder if Serra is scum now. Can xylbot make it so that one team has 2 and the other has 1-and-the-other-as-reincarnator-before-death?

No. He might be able to join the mafia (I realy hope he didn't!) but he wouldn't count as one of the original members.

Siblings don't know who their sibling is, firstly. Secondly while I guess the other scumteam could kill him at least you'd be able to try and prevent TML's town sibling from dying.

[Leafsnail]

There's not much point in popcorn if you cut in line!

[Leafsnail]

Yep, I'm a Super-Saint (possibly false). That destroys my theory about wind-up being a wolf because I don't see any way a wolf could gain that information.

The way I see it we're pretty much in lylo if we want victory to be entirely down to our choices rather than the scum's choices. If we lynch correctly today (and we have a 2/3 chance of doing so) then we're basically golden providing serra didn't come back scum.

[Leafsnail]

I do think wind-up is probably town. If he's mafia then he wilfully made a claim that means he now needs random luck to win (since he eliminated the possibility of mislynching me). shos is a fine lynch for today - if he's scum then that's great, we've eliminated a kill and we have another lynch tomorrow. If not then Aj gets to decide whether it's a scum (not his scum faction though) or town victory (make it town by killing wind-up if it comes to it! We spared you day one!!).

!vote shos

I don't think there's much else to say at this point considering none of us have claimed directable night actions.

[Leafsnail]

AJ doesn't get to decide anything....he's been poisoned already leaf

He still gets a kill tonight if he's scum.

If shos and Aj flip wolf and mafia then serra is the lynch for tomorrow, if the game is still going by that point (since all the original scum seems to be dead it must be a revived scum left). If one of shos and Aj flip town then

wind-up is better

(an original scum must be alive, and wind-up would be the only remaining candidate to be that scum - serra could still win if he's scum but it's better than lynching serra and definitely letting original scum wind-up win).

Just to make it clear, I'm pretty sure the reincarnator's role is not pre-decided. IE there'd still be two mafia members at the start of the game even with a reincarnator.

[Leafsnail]

There is a chance of there being a third scum faction - you. Otherwise I really don't think so, we haven't seen any multiball testsetups with scumteams of three.

Again guys, if one of shos and Aj flips town then you should lynch wind-up tomorrow. Not serra.

[Leafsnail]

We've had 1 setup with mafia1, mafia2 and wolf, but then there were no third-parties.

You know what? If there's 2 mafia, 2 mafia2, 2 wolves AND 2 survivors then at least we can all say we've played in the silliest game ever.

[Leafsnail]

Also the third scumteam's kill is entirely absent.

[Leafsnail]

Maybe somebody is lying about being town???

Gaaah, I sort of want to believe both Aj and wind-up. Except that doesn't work. Is there ANY chance of Kthx being scum in a scumfaction with 2 factional kills? Is that possible?

No, unless you include Antidoctor but that would not work here. Check out the Xylbot role PMs thread - the only potential mafia-ally which can kill is Crazed Fiend, and that's one-shot.

[Leafsnail]

Also none of Katsuki's testsetups had a lone mafia member, so I think the possibility is basically nonexistant. Seriously lynch wind-up tomorrow if shos or Aj are town.

[Leafsnail]

I'd love to but it's like 3am and I've been intending to go to bed forever. I'll try and get on in future though.

[Leafsnail]

...Seriously, serra? Double voter is a non-mafia role. You could have saved us all that bickering about your alignment yesterday!

[Leafsnail]

I like that I called both remaining scum, but

backwards

. I officially nominate myself for best cafia matcher.

Good game though, I think that was pretty much distilled Xylbot. I admire the way wind-up didn't give up and actually managed to find the one possible route he had to survival.

[Leafsnail]

The fact that you ran with an ultra-ballsy claim helped give it a more authentic xylbot feeling. It wouldn't be #mafia without the occasional mafia member claiming all the kills in the game as vigshots, or a scum-pair fakeclaiming mason.

[Leafsnail]

Although I don't think I've ever seen a time where "ultra-ballsy claim" means "your actual role".

[Leafsnail]

Fun fact: day one lasted about twice as long as the rest of the game put together.

[Leafsnail]

In my opinion the best way to play survivor is to act as honest and townie as possible, but be hopelessly wrong about all your reads. This might be hard if that doesn't come as naturally to you as it does to me

[Leafsnail]

Then I would personally lynch you for being a Godfather.