Mini 1405: The Simpsons Mafia (Game Over)

[sword_of_omens]

hey all!!
Glad to see this ione is finally up and running!!

anyhoo, real quickly:
I didn't see anything special (or telling) about Klick's self vote...i seriously doubt it was a post restriction..

i originally didn't see D3F's #10 as asking for us to name-claim like Saulres did , however it looks like I was wrong:

It was asking for opinion. If a lot of us wanted to name claim, why not?
I gave my bit on the self-vote stuff...I don't see why Klick hasn't posted since his self-vote.

What would be the point of mass name-claiming this early , especially in a bastard game?

Also, Plessie has some good and valid points here,
Guille, you were pretty specific about your Morkh vote…I find it difficult to believe that if you remember the game and especially the who voted who’s , then it would seem you would remember the why’s…especially if you are using it as a reason for your vote.

Vote: Guille

[sword_of_omens]

@Omens post 55, what do you make of this "wouldnt be so careless" argument?

Not sure i understand your question, here? To clarify my statement, Guille’s wording to Morkh was this:

But then you confirmed as a sure thing. Saying you

vaguely

remember him do it seems like a cop out for when or if he flips town.

But I do remember

. He did that as Town in Open 455 and you said nothing about it. Actually you went after the player who voted for Klick because of that. I remember you were town in that game.

It was a pretty strong statement.... he says whereas Morkh “vaguely” remembers, Guille “remembers”... he was also using this reasoning as a striking point in his vote (“Actually, you went after the player who voted for Klick

because of that

. I remember you were town in that game”) So he remembered the game, he remembered all of the people involved AND their votes on each other, but he doesn’t remember the why?

Sure, memory is fallible like he says, but if he’s using it as ammunition, why wouldn’t he double-check? It doesn’t seem right.



Ztife’s #80 is extremely bad..not sure how you could go from in favor of a mass name-claim to voting the person who initially asked for one?And i’m also throwing it out there that yes, mass claim is a bad idea ..there is no benefits to town whatsoever for this..Scum will most likely have fake-claims, and not to mention it’s bastard...
All it would end up doing is help scum

Also in agreement with Fit'z #90 in regards to D3f

[sword_of_omens]

As pointed out, name-claim does not equate to role-claim, and if the name-claim reveals the players alignment/power im pretty sure they will fake-claim anyway, protown or not.

huh? are you saying that if town thinks that their name is an alignment/power tell, they are going to fake-claim?
this scenario doesn't even make any sense...town, does not get, nor would they give fake-claims.

@MOD: please note i will be on V/LA for the weekend up through Jan 2nd for the Holidays. I will have very limitted access, but i do hope to at least pop in and post when i can get a signal.

[sword_of_omens]

Do you think town or scum is more likely to not check it?

ahhh...i missed playing with you Saulres...
but to answer your question, it can go both ways...
in this case though, i think it's more of the context in which it was given...
it wasn't just a pressure vote ...there was intent....he specifically used it as ammunition to try and fuel a wagon on Morkh...
and he specifically said he remembered the reason...not “vaguely remembered” either. It was clear he wanted to differentiate the two meanings.
I think town would double-check in this instance, (they would want to be sure they are not leading a mislynch) where as scum could use this as an opportunistic vote thinking that most people probably won’t read the full details.

[sword_of_omens]

Hey all, back from V/LA...
been a busy day at work..i'll be reading and posting tomorrow.

[sword_of_omens]

A couple of senarios for example why I think a name-claim could be useful than not.

I claim to be bart simpson, your character is bart simpson so you would know im lying, and if you get lynched that would be clear.

I am wiggum (cop), you claim to be lou (another cop), might seems suspicious to have 2 cops in the game so I could check you out at night.
I would assume that scums knows their scum buddies and therefore also know who are town, so my reasoning is that I don't see why a name claim would hurt town.

Ztife, it’s very likely that scum have been given fake-claims by the mod. Also, seeing as this is a bastard game, it doesn’t necessarily mean that “Bart Simpson” would be town. He could be a fake-claim, or SK, or even scum for that matter. Seeing as town would not lie about their name and scum would, all a mass name-claim would do right now is benefit scum, as they would know who’s lying and who’s not.
Also, your scenario# 2 above is a perfect example of why we don’t do this. It can help scum narrow down PR’s. You seriously don’t see any issues with claiming a basic cop role on D1?

@sword_of_omens & havingfitz: Your votes are based on Guille making a faulty meta argument, as I recall. My question to you is this: have you ever been in a game where this line of thought was validated? Or to put it bluntly, would this scum tell of yours have ever correctly predicted a scum in any game that you've played? Or has it failed more often than it has been correct?

As far as faulty meta? No, I don’t recall any specific instance where it has really come up. As I’ve stated I think the double-checking on meta can go both ways as far as being town (just being lazy) or scum (being opportunistic). Again, my vote is mainly for the context in which Guille had posted. I’ve played with town Guille before and he is pretty calm and clear headed. His faulty meta was a strong part of his push on Morkh, and given the way he posted his attack discerning the differences, I don’t see Guille as lazy town.


@Morkh,
Now that our other game is ended ( World of Warcraft )
Can I ask you why you still think that an early mass name-claim might be beneficial to town?
Especially after the backlash you got from me when you asked about one on D1?
In your defense, I did see later that you did genuinely wonder if there was a town benefit from it, but even your scumbuddy told you that it came off as rolefishing.

[sword_of_omens]

PEdit:
Aww... Ztife took most my reasoning...

ummmwhuh?
Ztife's post from yesterday? how is that a PEdit?

Say someone claims to be, like, Dr. Nick or something. That locks him from fakeclaiming to be a cop later on. It's still possible, but unlikely. Still I realize that could be misleading, because I can think of flavor that could back Dr. Nick up as a vig, doc, weak doc, JK, etc, but it does somewhat restrict the lying that can happen.

ok...seriously? did you not see how you just painted a PR target? Scum have the advantage here...they know their own team and they would more or less know who is lying and who isn't, whereas town would have to guess and deduce..so while we are trying to figure out who is lying and who isn't, we have just painted a bunch of bulls-eyes on our backs, allowing scum to prioritize their kills. We would be doing their work for them.

[sword_of_omens]

No. His 173.

ugh..i missed that?

@Ztife, any possible way you could get an avatar?

Do you think everyone has a power role?

No...fairly certain that there are VT's in the game..

[sword_of_omens]

@ Morkh,
Playing outguess the mod in a bastard game is never a good idea

[sword_of_omens]

sorry guys, work was nuts yesterday....
i will be caught up and contributing before the end of the day...

[sword_of_omens]

Unfortunately I didn’t get a chance to do a full read like I wanted to…
But touching up on a few things that caught my eye…

sword_of_omens -- hasn't posted since Friday, but still hasn't been prodded. Hasn't actually promised to say anything about saulres, but should do so as soon as possible

(i was V/LA for the weekend) But to answer your question, Saulres’ play had seemed consistent from what I remember with him as town. He’s pretty meticulous, asks a lot of questions, and doesn’t miss much. I did see that you had mentioned how his time-line for his trap didn’t pan out correctly, but did not really look to closely at it yet..i had just come from another bastard game where a town player looked to have lied about setting a trap (among other things) to try and save face on a crappy vote (in which I actually called him out on it pretty hard) turned out I was wrong about him. Saulres is a pretty solid town player, and I’d rather err on the side of caution on D1 with him, as he will surely prove himself in the next day or so if he is town.


@Fitz:

@Ruffig...wrt Post 158, I'm basically sheeping Pless' suspicions towards guille. I liked her case and SoO's subsequent opinion of it. Combined with my general disdain for D1 scumhunting and no other more worthy scum prospect IMO it seems to me like a good place for my vote. As for this type of "tells" success statistics...I have no idea

I like Ruffig's town rationale for guille and it does make me question my vote on guille.

Quick question to you Fitz…when did you actually change your mind here? If you agreed with my opinion about Guile (my push was that he was not lazy town) Then why would Ruffig saying that he would be lazy town change your mind?

[sword_of_omens]

Ok, i'm going to take a much closer look and give Saul and Pless the attention they need today...

Quick question to Plessie, though:

@Plessie : have you played with Saulres before?

[sword_of_omens]

honestly, i'm not sure as i haven't had a chance to really READ his case, fully...
let me ask you this, though..
were you lying about the "TRAP?"
just a yes or no...

[sword_of_omens]

fair enough...give me an hour or two to read the walls...
i'd hold off on the claim for now, though...

[sword_of_omens]

Alright, as far as voting Saulres today, I’m going to say that I’d prefer not to..
I’m willing to believe him for now.

Plessie’s main point for the timeline crux is this:

Sigh. Let me repeat why this is clearly a lie. The timeline just doesn't work. You say you came up with a plan to trap Ztife, and that's why you didn't mention a scum-read on him in 118 when asked for reads. But the post that you say inspired you to set this “trap” was made after 118. So you're telling us that you decided to do something, but made the decision after you actually did it.

Which is a pretty good point, actually. Considerin Saulres said that he became suspicious around his 96, where he asks Ztife to clarify his statements I looked closer at Saulres’ wording though, and his reasoning for not putting Ztife as a scum read is consistent with what he reply was…
Mainly:

Suspicions != read. I suspect everyone of being scum when I don't know who is. It was stronger on him than on some others,

but not enough to call it a "read".

Going back to his 118:

and I'd love it if people would start actually answering questions they were asked so we can form reads. If I

This makes sense if he is trying to form a “read” on Ztife. He states that he wants questions answered so he can form a “read.” Seeing as he mentioned that his suspicion came around his 96, this is consistent.

If you like, I can do a whole drawn out post touching on each of the claim points, although it would take a bunch of time for me to do, especially this late in the day..but bottom line is I think his trap was poorly timed and not fully thought through.

So in short, out of the main wagons, I’d prefer not to vote Saulres today…
I prefer Guille or Ztife.

[sword_of_omens]

i can go with Ztife...


Intent to hammer....


just waiting on him now...

[sword_of_omens]

yeh, not really buying it..
cop is an easy claim to make as scum...
in fact, last couple of games i was in we had scum fake-claim as cops...
Final Fantasy 6 Maf (Bastard game), and I love the 90's Cartoon Maf
i'm still pretty good with hammering...
i'll wait and let everyone voice their opinions...
although i will be V/LA for the weekend starting later this afternoon...

[sword_of_omens]

for those interested in the examples i listed above:

I love the 90's Cartton maf
MichelSableheart claimed name cop.

Final Fantasy 6
Diddin also claimed name cop early on...went on to win the game for scum.

[sword_of_omens]

oops, almost forgot...
Klick also recently claimed cop as scum in Dresden Filed (Bastard Game)

[sword_of_omens]

@Saul, why would you ask Fitz that question?
The mod would have opened up a QT for you if your action went through...so you would have known whether or not
you succeeded...Why would you try to have Fitz confirm you if in fact no QT was opened?
He would not have known you targetted him if it failed.

[sword_of_omens]

Sorry guys up in,the mountains today and tomorrow so irs hard to get a signal,
I'll be posting as soon as I can get to a xomputer...

Not sure why everyone is claiming though?

[sword_of_omens]

Hey all im back from the mountains and will get to a computer later tonight...
I am sorry dor all the V/La stuff but probise to start pulling my weight now that i'm back

[sword_of_omens]

And while I'm rereading people ...

sword of omens

:

@Plessie : have you played with Saulres before?

I don't think you ever said why you asked this.

If you like, I can do a whole drawn out post touching on each of the claim points

, although it would take a bunch of time for me to do, especially this late in the day..but bottom line is I think his trap was poorly timed and not fully thought through.I prefer Guille or Ztife.

I would like this, actually. Just a sentence or two on each claim would be (more than) enough to be getting on with.

Sorry, I thought I had answered you…the reason I asked the question is that Saulres usually asks a lot of thoughtful questions and is pretty active as town. I was curious if you had played with him before…I thought if you were scum and knew how he played, you might want to try and take him out early, as you were pushing for his lynch pretty hard...


As far as touching on the claims..it mainly comes down to whether or not you believed him about his “trap”, which I was inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt…going back:

Claim 1:

I've already said why I don't believe saulres had suspicions of Ztife after 96. He was challenged to give reads by Rufflig. He replied in 118 and did not mention any suspicions of Ztife. But, according to saulres, the plan to “trap” Ztife hadn't been decided on yet. As town, I see no reason for him not to share suspicions of Ztife when asked to give reads. Hence, I do not believe he had any.

(Saulres has attempted to justify this, in his 218, by suggesting he merely “suspected” Ztife, but didn't have a “scumread” on him. Not only does this not actually fit the words he used, it feels like a pedantic, hair-splitting argument. If you suspect somebody more than anybody else, you say so when asked for reads. You at least need a reason not to do this, and saulres doesn't have one.)

This i’ve already touched on..Saul’s posting in his 118 about not being able to fully form reads on someone who he’s waiting on answers from is consistent with his 218 post. By 96 he could have had suspicions, but didn’t put it down as a read, because he was waiting on answers from Ztife. His 118 does come off as frustrated...

Claim 2:

Staying with 118, I don't believe Saulres's claim to have only ever pretended to suspect D3f3nd3r as part of a trap. In 118, he says that D3f3nd3r “clearly has a lyncher wincon”. But we're now supposed to believe that Saulres mentioned this, even though he thinks it has nothing to do with D3f3nd3r's actual alignment? Really now. Actual suspicions on Ztife were too trifling to mention, but he felt like throwing this out without intending it to suggest D3f3nd3r had an anti-town win condition? I think this “read” was intended to pave the way toward saulres eventually voting for D3f3nd3r. I think he saw the wagon and decided he wanted to join it.

Saulres doesn’t mention D3f as scum or town in 118. He states that he thinks he has a lynchcon..lynchcon does not necessarily mean anti-town..town members can have lynch-cons..
Given that this is a bastard game and especially given the fact that in the sign-up thread, SAD mentioned it in the rules:

The setup is partly based on different agendas. So a player might have a secret agenda in addition to their factional win condition

Claim 3 - 6
Saul explained this with his “TRAP” ...although, i still think it was poor;y thought out.
As far as being ruined, it was more of the attention and pressure that was quickly brought up against Saul before Ztife could respond that probably ruined it..
It unravelled pretty quickly and with a lot of attention before anything really could pan out either way...like i said, Saulres is pretty decent town when he tries and
is pretty insightful...so i’d rather err on the side of caution with him on D1.

********

now for the new day....

As far as the Guille kill goes..his flip states that his action is ”activated” which would mean that he would have to choose when to do it..and seeing as that there are no other bodies, (other than Ztife), i seriously doubt he activated it...Guille was a leading wagon, on D1 so he makes sense as a vig kill...Ztife could have investigated him and got killed for it, but that would mean that either the scum kill was blocked, or they forgot to send it in, which i seriously doubt, not to mention the fact that Ztife claimed cop which makes sense as a priority kill for scum.
I seriously doubt Ztife was strong-armed, as that (i believe Ruifflig mentioned ) would defeat the 1 –shot doc purpose..
Qwints can’t have been CPR..for Ztife to have died mafia had to have been blocked, or not send in a kill, which is highly unlikely..
2 things here...
Not really sure what the point of a 1-shot naive doctor would be, but it is bastard game..that said, i really doubt a 1-shot naive doc would be in the game...
Qwints could be lying about being a 1 shot doc...if that’s the case, why not just say he doc’d someone else though and not the NK?
More than likely he was J/K’d or role blocked...seeing as he crumbed doc, it’s pretty feasible that he was role-blocked..this would then mean that there’s a good possibility of Saulres lying about being blocked...i really don’t see town motivation of J/K’ing Saulres on a night where he’s set to prove himself town...
OTOH Saulres does looks good for a scum roleblock and easy follow up mislynch, and if town does have a J/K then Qwints could have been targeted if they didn’t catch his crumb..

Odds are against Saulres on this, though...and i usually try and play a safe game...i won’t like the fact that every day we are going to have to question Saulres’ alignment each day as it will just distract the town.

That said, i might be willing to vote for him today if nothing more certain comes up...

I really do not like all of the claims this early in the game...considering the scum know who each other are, all we are doing is prioritizing the scum kills for them..
D3f’s wierd name claim seemed off to me...i really don’t see why he felt the need to claim Flanders when he did...he said it was a counterclaim, but Saulres didn’t claim Flanders...

[sword_of_omens]

have some suppliers in today, but i will be posting before i leave work..

[sword_of_omens]

So, I asked 5 people for updated reads and in response I get 1 post with reads, 3 posts with dodges and 1 post with a replace out. I'm disgusted by all the apathy

yeh...sorry, yesterday i had suppliers in who stayed the whole day and i had to take them all to dinner...
today was catch up for all of the crap i couldn't get done while they were here, yesterday...
i'll be fully caught up by tomorrow and put a down a full list of reads for you...

[sword_of_omens]

readin up...

i'll be posting shortly...

@Plessie, do you have a scum game you can link me to?

[sword_of_omens]

ok, I think I might like to see a Mhork flip…
he has more than just a few inconsistencies...and seems to play off of Pless
#125

- "Why is rufflig townish? I'm getting weird gut scummy vibes that I don't understand. >.<

This comes shortly after Plessie states his suspicions of Ruff in his 106..here Morkh's trying to endorse a Ruff wagon, without having any reasoning behind it..maybe hoping that Pless will fan the flames for him..
after which, he doesn't even really mention Ruff again until 322 where he states the following:
#322

- I'm not gonna even consider touching plessy or rufflig though. I like them

again, shortly after Plessie declares that he's liking Ruff for town now. Morkh has no mention of where or why his mind went from scummy Ruff, to I won't be lynching him at all…
Morkh also pushed for a nameclaim and gave his reasoning in his 177, however, he follows up with the following:

You know what's more anti town than a mass name claim? A mass role claim! Now all y'all need to zip about the claiming, yeah?

Why is he stating that name claim is anti-town, now all of a sudden? because it suits him for his argument...
#482 -[quote=""Morkh""] New idea: Saulres is homer and the neighbor is joke. That would be hilarious.
<Real homer, please don't claim.>[/quote]

Vote: Lord Morkh

[sword_of_omens]

Sorry quick touch up on the rest as I am running out the door:
following up with the rest of the reads:

Saul could very well be scum also...although if he is town, then his claim makes him a prime target for a scum r/b...
enter Qwints...a 1 shot doc who was somehow role-blocked when Saul was...however, Qwints crumbed out the start with his doc, so i highly doubt that he is lying here...there's no way he could have set this up...
Few things could have happened:
Qwints was r/b'd by scum, JK'd by town, or possibly redirected... Either way, there's really too many variables to really tell for certain..either way, i still have Qwints as town..

D3f3nd3r is hit or miss…his #30, coupled with his mass claim stance makes me want to think he is town. his weird "Flanders" claim really makes no sense as scum or town though?

Pless is hard to read and I keep going back and forth on him...he puts in a lot of effort which some naturally equate to as town, but I could see him as scum with Mhork…

Ruffig is town.

Klick hasn't put a whole lot into the game, but I do think #325 catch up is a good town post.

Fitz - nothing too strong from him in regards to town..he could possibly be scum as well, mainly by PoE

DoubleJD - Hasn't done much either way but I did like his #421 ..it's enough to put him on the sidelines with a slight warm and fuzzy for now.l...

[sword_of_omens]

On my phone, but....
Super late EBWOP:
That last quote in my 677 of Morkh's was put there because I was unsure of why he would say that, considering Homer was a sample pm that died in the opening write up...

[sword_of_omens]

On my phone at the store:
in regards to popcorn from Phill,


Not Hibbert

Popcorn to Double JD

[sword_of_omens]

This is a lot of hypothesizing to make your situation palatable.

meh...not really...
The randomized role theory of his does makes pretty good sense...

Also, Qwints doesn't have to be a CPR doctor for his night spec to work...
he could easily be a standard 1 X Doc and could have been redirected to anyone else...

[sword_of_omens]

Pless, why isn't your vote on Mhork?

[sword_of_omens]

@Fitz.. yes or no, are you interested in joining the Morkh wagon?
i'm assuming you were waiting on Saulres' response to your question to decide...

[sword_of_omens]

Sword -- if there's not enough support for Mhork, are you switching to D3f3nd3r or to saulres? (If the former, I suspect a saulres lynch is impossible.)

hard to say really...
D3f is still a pretty big question mark for me...he hasn't really contributed a lot..but that really doesn't say much for him as that's his standard play from what i remember...

Saulres however, has been actively playing and i really did like his randomized obv-role theory...it actually seems very plausible...i think scum would have kept that to themselves rather than share...as scum, keeping that secret, it could have been easy to ask for a mass name-claim and try and decipher what town PR's are out there...

Either way Saulres and D3f will both have to prove themselves sooner rather than later...
i know that D3f usually sits on the sidelines either way, whereas Saul has the capabilities to prove is town (if he is)

So bottom line pref-wise:

Mhork
D3f
Saul

if it's a choice between a no-lynch and voting Saul then i'll vote him as at least wed'll get some info from his flip.

[sword_of_omens]

Ok ..i’m here…
I still like the Mhork lynch….i don’t doubt that he’s a bus driver, but I do doubt that he’s town.

This sounds a lot like saying you'd rather keep saulres around because he's a better player than D3f3nd3r .
(How exactly are you hoping saulres will "prove" himself as town? If you look at his scum games, it's clear he's capable of sounding very townish as scum.)

Well considering D3f is known for his active sidelining, it doesn’t help his case either way..he’s going to be a question mark pretty much for most of this game, unless there’s another cop who can confirm him (highly unlikely) , or by some other mechanics means…
Meanwhile Saulres states that he has a Friendly Neighbor ability which could prove he’s town if he does have more than 1 shot and is successful. Not to mention he is actively participating and that he has brought forth some decent ideas… So yeh, I’d rather give Saulres the chance to prove he is town than D3f if I had to choose…

Also, based on Mhork's claim, I think his flip might be somewhat telling of Saul’s alignment..

[sword_of_omens]

hmmm...that seems like a strange kill...
Saulres was by no means cleared based on Morkh's flip, but best guess is that scum didn't want to waste a r/b on him in case he had extra shots?
so we know Saulres was telling the truth about sending his shot to Fitz,
however, i'm gonna say that Fitz probably is town seeing as he hammered at deadline, when he could have easily stated that he couldn't have gotten on-line in time or some other excuse...
Not to mention there is Qwints fail..

actually...
i know different mods do bus drivers differently...

@Mod: does bus driver include switching the targets of the chosen 2 as well as those who target them?

PEDIT: Nina'd

[sword_of_omens]

ah well...it was worth a shot..

[sword_of_omens]

I don't think this is enough to clear fitz at all.

true..although I still see it as a point in his favor…Mhork wasn't a sure lynch as Saul was pretty vocal in his preference not to vote him, so Fitz scum doing nothing with an oops excuse could have been an easy gamble to make…

Anyways, getting Mhork lynched was like pulling teeth so i doubt all remaining scum were on that wagon...
which pretty much leaves a good chance that one of D3F and Klick/Phill are scum..
i remember that i wasn't really impressed with Phill's contributions since he replaced in...
gonna go back and re-read Klick/Phil slot and what little of D3f's there is...

[sword_of_omens]

hard to say, Qwints, problem with bus drivers is that there a few different versions depending on the mod...some only switch action going to the targets, some only switch the targets of the 2 people driven , and some will do both of those things.
if it's the second one then Saul could have sent his PM to your target (Ztife) and you would have doc'd Fitz.

[sword_of_omens]

EBWOP: in response to your 824

[sword_of_omens]

also, almost forgot...

@MOD : i will be V/LA for the weekend as per my usual starting in just a few hours

[sword_of_omens]

as far as the name claim goes...i still do not think it's a good idea...it might sound good on paper (as it will help us figure out what type of roles might be available in the game) but given that scum will most likely have fake-claims, they will be the only ones who will really know as they can pollute the thread with fake-names / possible abilities. I don’t really see it benefitting town as town won’t know who’s lying and who’s not. Also, it can help scum narrow down their targets..knowing for instance, that the doc would not be the doc…or maybe an obvtown JK would not be the JK.

Meanwhile, I’m very disappointed in D3f’s posting…I understand it’s mainly how he plays, but it really is a hinderance for town.
@D3f, rather than just saying "lynch me", can you please please either give us a simple top 2 scum and town reads and reasons for each, or at least replace out? giving up and saying that you're better off getting lynched is not very helpful... i'd honestly prefer for you to at least try a little bit? Just put some thoughts down and go from there...
also, just to clarify, you are going with Ruff, Fitz, and Qwints as most likely (2 of 3) scum simply because they were all on both lynch wagons?

i've been giving the Saul NK a little more thought...i have a theory, but i want to go back and look for a few things first...as it might be considered a stretch...

[sword_of_omens]

hey all,
work is nuts today, so i'll most likely have to wait til tomorrow to put something worthwhile down...

[sword_of_omens]

I’m running out right now, so I’ll make this quick…
I’ll most likely be voting for Phill or D3f today as those two have the best odds of being scum…
And tbh I’m leaning on Phill-scum…

@Def : 2nd time I’m going to ask this….Can you please do me a favor and list your top 2 strongest town, and your top 2 strongest scum reads along with a quick reason for each...nothing elaborate…i know you can do it, because i've seen you do it before...

@Phill, please explain your D3f scum read in detail other than his less than frequent posts..you say you have him as scummy for a number of listed reasons, but I can’t find where you actually list them and what they are exactly, other than being inadequate. Other than D3f who is scum? You had me as scummy, and you stated that DoubleJD was as well…what happened to those reads?

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@Mod: please note i will be V/LA for the weekend

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Ugh...ArcAngel's claim...
as bad as it it, it's probably true...either way lynching her is probably a bad idea...let maf kill her at night since she decided to paint a target on herself for no reason whatsoever...
Arc, you were in no way "in danger of being lynched and your "sudden" claim was a bad decision.

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well if she's lynched, (and she is a princess) then we'll skip tomorrow's day phase and have 2 nights...
if she's NK'd we might (or might not) skip the following day phase, depending on the mod...
seeing as i believe her claim, i would let scum worry about whether or not it's worth it to NK her.

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no, Qwints is not insane or CPR..
i've stated this already...

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possible...
Phill knew he was going down and hail mary'd on the counterclaim, hoping for a bite, i guess...
i don't see how he thought we would lynch a possible Beloved Princess over him on a counterclaim though...
Fitz could have pretended to believe him to gauge reactions, and when no one bit, he hopped back on Phill..
although i will say his unvote of Arc and revote on Phil looks genuine...Dunno...

i actually want to look a little closer into Plessie today...
Unfortunately, i am going on V/LA starting in about an hour and going through til Tuesday morning...
i'm going out of town so i can only pop in on my phone...so i porbably won't be able to do some decent reading or follow up until then.

[sword_of_omens]

Probably, but not "conclusively", right? (She could be scum who withheld a kill tonight, couldn't she? I mean, I don't really think that's at all likely, but it's possible, isn't it?)

Unless she got a lot of coaching from her team mates, (and i doubt it since it was right after she replaced in) i'm going to say that, no i don't think she is scum and witheld the kill...

POE seems to point pretty squarely at D3f3nd3r today, but ... I dunno, feels a bit too easy? (It also means that no scum were on the day 2 Mhork wagon, which seems intuitively wrong, too).

i also don't like how everyone is pointing to D3f again...with Phil's flip as scum, D3f is most likely town...

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*and by everyone, i mean 2 of the 4 people posting...

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oops for got to bold this above..

@MOD: i am going on V/LA starting in about an hour and going through til Tuesday morning...
i'm going out of town so i can only pop in on my phone...

[sword_of_omens]

with Phil's flip as scum, D3f is most likely town...

Explain?

I can’t see ALL of scum being off of the Mhork wagon…it would make sense that at least one of them (other than Mhork) was, though…That’s why I stated that one of Phil or D3f was most likely scum. I would say that we should definitely be looking at Mhork’s wagon for the last scum…

I did say I wanted to get a better look at Plessie, so I will try and do that probably tomorrow (as it’s going to be a long read)
Meanwhile, while I also said that Fitz’ unvote from Arc and revote to Phil seemed genuine, but I did notice that his vote was the one that put Phil to L-1 where Phil immediately self hammered to end the day jus a few moments later in the very next post…that could be construed as scum deciding that the gambit on Arc was going nowhere, and then deciding to try and end the day and gain 2 Nights back to back with Phil’s sacrifice. Phil was a 1-shot anyway so he could easily be sac’d, and Qwints claimed 1 shot as well so odds were pretty good they could succeed..

So yeh…gonna take a much closer look at Fitz and then do a thorough check up on Plessie…

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also, Fitz is at L-2 if i read correctly...

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@Fitz, would you mind claiming, please..

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lol...D3f...

honestly, i don't think i like the BP claim...but damn D3f that's convenient...


PEDIT: lol....

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just in case,
@Fitz - Quick read on remaining people?
your above "thoughts" post wasn't a whole lot to go on..
it's mainly defending yourself, and highlighting D3f as a lurker...

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actually if Fitz is town, tomorrow most likely could be mylo (depending on ARC's ability)
so we'll need to play it slw and careful tomorrow...

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@Fitz, any reason why you didn't claim unlynchable?


Janitor on Ruff? not that it really matters, i guess...

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no....bulletproof and lynchproof are usually two differenbt things...

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well there could be one other explanation, but i'll wait until Fitz and Plessie check in...

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hmmm...

Vote: Rufflig

just wanting to test something...

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@MOD : can we get a quick vote count?


also, i will be V/LA for my usual weekend fromping...leaving here in an hour or so

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ok, i am back....

post incoming...

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Ok…I am also in favor of mass claim today…
And I am also a believer in Saulres’ theory about obvious roles randomized, as I stated before…

I am Otto, N1 Compulsive Vig
I Vig’d Guille on N1. That’s why I kept stating that Qwintz could not possibly be a CPR doc..
I also crumbed my name when I was on Mhork’s lynch wagon:

i don’t doubt that he’s a bus driver, but I do doubt that he’s town.

Fitz… Seeing as how everyone else was on Fitz’ wagon other than myself, Pless, and Fitz …the only people that would have OR could have governed him would be myself, Pless, or Fitz…I know I didn’t do it. Pless is strongly implying that he didn’t do it, and Fitz is stating that he didn’t do it either…Scum would have no reason to govern a town lynch at all (seeing as it’s a free lynch for them), and town would have no reason to lie about it. The only explanation I can think of is possibly a scum governor (in which case would most likely be ON Fitz’ wagon at the time) trying to save a scum buddy, or Fitz is possibly 1 time lynch-proof. Balance-wise, so far scum doesn’t seem all that powerful. (a 1 shot gunsmith, bus-driver, and an X-shot Janitor..so having 4 scum might not be unthinkable) Either way it does point towards Fitz being scum.


Also, Ruffig’s janitor kill last night seems odd..He had already full claimed his name and ability. So killing him with a Janitor seems inexperienced and wasteful. I can see scum using it because mass-claim was mentioned at the end of yesterday, but why not on an unclaimed player like myself or Pless? The only possible explanation I can come up with is that Rufflig HAD to be the kill (either they were afraid of him for some reason, or something else), and they used the Janitor just to use it…

Also, N1….scum KNEW Qwintz was a doc (based on Klick’s ISO) so if Qwints is town, then he would of had to have been bussed or blocked) this also plays into the Saul PM to Fitz a bit, but I’ll post the rest of my thoughts after Pless claims…

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And, I am having trouble believing Plessiez's claim. I think he claimed that to stop me from protecting him and to get my protection somewhere useful.

explain this please.

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also, who was your N1 target?

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ugh.

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D3f already claimed he used his ability on N1 and N3, and that he protected Pless on N3.
He never claimed odd night Bodyguard. He was responding to you calling him "odd night bodyguard" in your 1129.
So your 1133 where you say he is "very contradicting" makes no sense whatsoever...

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@Pless - what do you make of the Rufflig kill?

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And, I am having trouble believing Plessiez's claim. I think he claimed that to stop me from protecting him and to get my protection somewhere useful.

explain this please.

D3f, seriously,
please explain this....
and state who your target on N1 was...

[sword_of_omens]

ok...
i do think that there are 2 scum left.
3 scum out of 13 (23%) especially with scum having what looks like all 1-shots does not seem right...
Not to mention town supposedly has a Doc, Bodyguard, Searching Mason and a friendly neighbor.
That just seems way too town-sided...

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I screwed that up in the night action chart. The question is instead: why did ztife die when I protected him when arcangel didn't?

this is part of what's bothering me...

you HAD to have been bussed n1 (or possibly role-blocked)

as Klick-scum admitted on D1 that he caught Qwintz' doc crumb.

N1 scum had the following to worry about:

1. Ztife claimed cop
2. Saulres claimed Friendly Neighbor
3. Qwintz crumbed doc.

They need to make sure their kill went through, while also making sure Saulres didn't send out a pm.
Depending on how the bus driver works (if it affects targets, AND their targets as well)
They could have bussed Ztife and Saulres, with a kill on Saulres.
That would effectively kill Ztife. And Qwintz’ doc would have covered Saulres and Saulres would have targetted whoever Ztife copped (from his ISO I would assume Saul or D3f? as I don’t really see him suspecting anyone else)
so D3f could have rec'd the PM notification...Problem with this is that it does not guarantee that they could hide the Saulres PM as scum wouldn't know who Ztife targetted, although they could guess)

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also in that scenario if it's just the targets that get switched, then Fitz SHOULD have rec'd the PM notification...

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typing out loud here…

I thought about this a lot…
only other possible scenarios i can come up with :

Qwintz is a scum 1-shot Doc ...(he safely crumbs doc and has Klick out him in the thread (this gives Qwintz validity to say he was blocked from stopping the scum kill and gives him town cred) He could have no-killed on the night of Arc's Princess claim, again securing him as town . Although in this case, Arc would most likely have to be his scumbuddy with a Princess fake-claim (no kill on Qwintz or Arc last night seems to support this) and instead she is either scum governor or janitor. Plessie (or anyone else for that matter) as his buddy (or soloscum Qwintz) wouldn’t make sense as Arc could have easily been targetted and killed and Qwintz could have claimed “oops no more shots”. The only problem i see with Qwintz-scum is we do still have unanswered abilities (Fitz no-lynch, and/or Ruff's Janitor). Sure, Arc can be a governor/Janitor and Ruff could be third party (to explain the other action), but then it gets sketchy as hell and balance wise it doesn’t make any sense..so with that said:

Gonna say Qwintz is TOWN.

Plessie, I’v gone back and forth on over and over…I really do not like his Macho VT claim, but he did play a big part in securing a Mhork lynch and his posts are pretty well thought out..he does put out good ideas and discussion, so I still want to believe he is town.

Arc – makes my eyes bleed, and unless she was coached as soon as she replaced in, she is most likely town. Sure Phil could have sac’d himself to make her look good, but I don’t see scum placing their bets on her to get to end game. No offense to you Arc.


D3f – a second protector role in the game…surpised he didn’t even question Qwintz’ doc claim, especially when he found out Qwintz had more than 1 shot. His play has been pretty slack (although this is what I’ve seen from him before so that doesn’t say much as far as alignment goes) I don’t like the fact that he has had pretty much no scum reads the whole game either… so he has a high probability of scum.


Then there’s Fitz:
And damn...Fitz does leave a lot of unanswered questions...
He claimed BP (which I’ve seen scum often do) it gives them an excuse for not being NK’d. He somehow evaded a lynch. He didn’t get Saulres’ PM..his unvote and vote to Phil, with how quickly Phil self-hammered (within minutes) could be construed as scum coming from a QT to put their plan into action…

So yeh…
I think I’m willing to re-lynch Fitz...
With this possibly being mylo, I’ll let Plessie and Qwintz weigh in one last time (in case I might be missing something) before I place Fitz at L-1.

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Why the hurry to place anybody at L-1 if you think this is mylo?

i am not "in a hurry" to place anyone at L-1...that's why i said i would wait to hear from you and Qwintz first..
Right now, i think Fitz is most likely scum..Qwintz also thinks that this is the case..and as far as i'm concerned, you and Qwintz are the only ones i'm really interested in hearing from..Fitz is v/la so he can't really post much..although he already stated that he didn't know why the lynch failed on him. i don't mind discussion, either..again, that's why i didn't put my vote on Fitz.

Er. Why don't you like it, and why is this the first time you've said so?

Macho VT can be an easy fake claim..considering you were last to claim and there are no claimed trackers or cops alive to show you went out at night or are lying, and it would be easy to do so....it's not something that says "hey you're scum!" , it's more of a minor inconvenience for me when i'm trying to figure out who's scum and who isn't...

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i do not have any additional win-con...although the Mod note you quoted does say it would be in addition to your factional win-con, so if it is a town with a lynch-con, i would think that even if you had to lynch a town member to win, both players would still win with town..i doubt that it would require you to go against your factional..if it's a traitor role or something to that extent, the traitor would at least try and crumb to mafia so as to attract the kill.

Does anybody have any idea why, if the scum have a Janitor, they didn't use it on saulres? Or ... well, on anybody but Rufflig? Just doesn't seem to make sense.

Could be that scum have a JOAT, but had other priorities...or that they don't understand how to capitalize on their abilities...or any number of things...The Rufflig kill doesn't make sense, period. Qwintz was a claimed doc...and with no other claimed protection in the game yet (this is before D3f claimed) he should have been the obvious target. With Qwintz out of the way, they can freely kill the Princess or anyone else for that matter.

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@Sword...why didn't you claim sooner (especially D3 or D4)? Knowing how guille died may have helped clear up things a bit wrt to N1 actions.

I had no reason to…although every time the N1 analysis came up I made sure to clarify to everyone that i knew Qwintz was not insane or CPR.

That still does not explain however how Ztife died considering that qwints claims to have protected him N1. So still a little uncertainty about N1.

I explained this as well.
Klick admitted in thread that he caught Ztife’s crumb of doc.
So we know that scum knew Qwintz was a doc, Ztife was a cop, and Saul was Freindly neighbor.
All they would have to do is bus Ztife with Saulres and target Saulres for the kill.
This guarantees their cop kill while evading the doc.
Qwintz doc would have went to Saul. And the kill on Saulres would have went to Ztife.
I knew Guilles death had nothing to do with it because my shot went through.
Which leaves 2 other scenario’s (assuming there is no scum roleblocker) depending on the mod’s version of Bus.
1. If targets are switched only , then Fitz is lying about the PM from Saulres.
2. If it is targets and their targets, then Saul’s PM request went to whoever Ztife copped. And if Ztife shot scum, then scum could easily keep quiet and let Fitz take the fall for them

[sword_of_omens]

^for scenario 2 up there...Ztife's main scumpicks were D3f and Saul...so it could have gone to D3f.



so we are still back to Ztife and D3f.

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damn you Qwintz, being all ninja and shit...

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HF-town means more N1 effectiveness from scum (how'd they know HF was saul's target)?

they didn't have to..if it's the double target edition , they could have taken a calculated risk with Ztife aiming for scum..Again, it all boils down to how the busride works...and Mod wouldn't answer that

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@MOD: i will be doing my usual weekend V/LA please (starting in an hour or 2)

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*ebwop* from 1194
Klick admitted in thread that he caught

Qwintz'

crumb of doc.

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hmmm...i'm wondering if Fitz wouldn't be better off going first...
if D3f does happen to be town at least he might be able to stop a kill going through on a townie and taking it himself...
although, i'm seriously doubting that he might be a bodyguard...otherwise you would think (as town) he would be fighting for his slot...

Actually, D3f,

why aren't you fighting for your slot? Why wouldn't you demand to be kept alive in hopes pf possibly taking the scum kill tonight if we mislynch? if you are town and a bodyguard then why wouldn't you argue this point, rather than just giving up?

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Damn it D3f! Really?
that's all you have to say?

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I'd rather not "No Lynch" as most likely we will still be stuck with the same who do we lynch tomorrow problem (as i doubt scum would want to kill D3f or Fitz tonight if they are both town) just in the hopes that on a best case scenario town-d3f absorbs a kill...
At least with a lynch we can definitely rule one of them out..(assuming it's solo scum)

still not sure, though...from a safety point of view it still might make sense to lynch Fitz first...if D3f does happen to be town then he might still absornb the NK... the problem i have is D3f's lack of, well...everything...he doesn't even seem to care and doesn't bother to give any solid reads or thoughts, or any meaningful participation..

[sword_of_omens]

Qwints, if he is the doctor he claims to be, can do what we need.

Then again, if you want to keep a rather useless at Day but helpful by Night town-member, feel free to keep me in.

ugh...This post really bothers me....
Qwintz claimed X-shot..so who's to say he isn't used up...
also wouldn't it be wiser to have, say 2 people possibly protecting town?
This makes me think that you really have not given thought to your "ability" as you do not seem to have the best interest for town... again..stating that you are useless doesn't help...at least state your opinions, (if you are town) try to help us out here as sitting back and doing nothing doesn't help anyone but scum.

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Hey Fitzy-poo...
i noticed you /replaced in to a game over in the Replacement Thread which kind of voids your in/ n /out argument….unless you just ended another game?

[sword_of_omens]

no, but that doesn't mean it isn't so...
Still trying to figure out if it's better to lynch Fitz first...

[sword_of_omens]

Fitzy-poo?

lol...like that, did you?

[sword_of_omens]

alright ...after thinking this out some more...
the only other team up if there are 2 scum left would be D3f and Plessie (or D3f and me) and i know i am town..
it could explain the the governor on Fitz if he is town...and possibly the Janitor on Ruff...but that's still stretching it...so yeh, it probably is solo scum...

i'm willing to hammer D3f...

anybody else want to chime in before i do?

[sword_of_omens]

So you are saying that you don't think Fitz is scum?

Who is scum then, D3f?

[sword_of_omens]

alright then, let's do this...

Vote: D3f3nd3r

That's hammer....

Now let's see what's behind curtain #3

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also..hope you're ok Plessie

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lol, you...
why do you lurk and lurk...and then finally give your opinions after the fact?
why are you now saying HF after your post from the previous page?
why didn't you answer my question when i asked...
and why don't you seem to care at all for a town win?

AUGH!!!!

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THIS THIS THIS:

Fine, lynch me. Better lynch someone useless than someone who people care about.

you are saying it's better to lynch town than maf!?

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Bloody Hell.....

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i always fuck it up at end game...
should have went with the safe bet like i stated...damnit...
sorry i didn't push for it harder, town....

D3f....i got no words, man...
you really should put a little more effort into these games...voice your opinions more...even if you think you aren't being helpful...

[sword_of_omens]

Krusty was Traitor and targetted on N3, yeh?

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@Pless , Ruff , and Qwintz
I very much enjoyed playing with you guys and hope to see you in another game soon. ..

SAD - the game was fun, thanks for being a great mod...


@Mhork - you bastard :p second time in a row you beat me as scum...
I will get you, my pretty. ...

Also, pretty sure i called the bus drive correctly. ..

Is the scum link up yet?

[sword_of_omens]

I wonder who I should kill next...Huh.. I should have not sacrificed my scum mate...  

This has me laughing so Freakin' hard for some reason. ..