Mini 1482: Castle - A Mafia Murder So Vile (GAME OVER)

[penguin_alien]

Desperado, why come in and vote someone who hasn't posted when there's a whole exchange going on right above your post? Mantisdreamz, why ask if pirate mollie's in the macmollie hydra when that info is in the OP?

Obligatory VOTE: natirasha.

Now, I'm not going to lie, I didn't even know there was a show called Castle. I joined this game under the impression its be like a murder mystery in the vein of And Then There Were None or something. Oh well, I'll survive.

I joined thinking the same thing and got really excited when I realized it was based on the show and not some random castle... /dorkiness

[penguin_alien]

Neither of them give me scum vibes for it. And I kind of like SP's Mantis vote, even if I'm left mostly guessing at the reasons. Bert, eh. Looks to me like SP is baiting him, and we'll see what SP comes up with from the LoL stance. My reading of it was that there was enough content to indicate that people were moving out of the RVS stage, so your naked vote looked odder to me. I don't mind macmollie's for the same reason I'm asking Mantis that question.

[penguin_alien]

I don't mind macmollie's for the same reason I'm asking Mantis that question.

So the reason you don't like mine is because you aren't suspicious of thenewearth?

...I didn't think he'd posted because when I looked for his name in the ISO menu I was thinking 'newearth' instead of 'thenewearth' and stopped scrolling. His RVS vote doesn't ping anything for me. Does it give you scum vibes?

[penguin_alien]

---

...I didn't think he'd posted because when I looked for his name in the ISO menu I was thinking 'newearth' instead of 'thenewearth' and stopped scrolling.

So are you saying you didn't care for Desperado's vote on thenewearth because you didn't think TNE had posted yet? Because you got their name wrong when looking for posts in the Activity Overview area?

Yeah, not my shining moment in reading comprehension. To elaborate, my line of thought was that a bare vote wasn't much in the way of pressuring someone to participate if that was his goal. And I thought we were starting to move past RVS, so it being totally random didn't feel right.

[penguin_alien]

macmollie's casualness comes off as town.

Lynx_Shine, why does it seem like you're saying that anything Bert questions isn't worth him doing so, but his actually scum hunting is scummy to you?

[penguin_alien]

Wisdom, you say you find Natirasha's self-meta suspect. Given that he was explicitly asked about his self-voting trademark, is it still scummy?

[penguin_alien]

To Bert: while I don't like you're style, I have been hamming up my dislike of you a bit too much. I apologize if I came off as whiny, the gag has gone in long enough and I hope we can be civil towards each other.

So once he votes you, you want to bury the hatchet, so to speak. Odd timing, after you've spent so much time griping about his play.

ArcAngel9, your early town read on macmollie changed, based on a lack of strong cases, I think; is that something you'd really expect from mollie this early? Because I'm not seeing the scum vibes others are.

[penguin_alien]

reads

tator - om says he is sus of me then mara comes in and is all like "we never suspected you" and then went awol when I proved her wrong. in the mean time om continues a push on me without ever addressing that post. scum.

desp - mac says town so I am going with it. he gives me hope

wis - very low key, unusual for him but I can follow his thought processes and the 1 game I played against him as scum I could not. null to town

bert - terribad town.

mantis - unsure. I give lots of reads very early and she should know this. especially with the early town read on her and she should know why. so I am confused

nats - town based on gut

lynx - mara foses her but lets continue his sad push on me and then she pops up is all like "hydras oh noes!" but responds to a hydra in a manner that suggests familiarity. hedges her read on us (distancing from a town mislynch but wants to blend in) and tries to strengthen her weak scumread on bert by saying we are not partners. she is setting bert up for a future mislynch cos she knows how I will flip re: why she is hedging her read. that kind of clears bert, not sure how helpful he will be. scum.

penguin - unsure. if you are town plz get your head in the game

arc - unsure. the "huh" tell is not rock solid, she does it as scum.

tne - if desp did not give a town read I would be all over him. so, town cos desp said so

VOTE: lynx

I would really rather see that tator thing go but lynx is dropping such classic scumtells that I am really hoping that people with half a brain can see it.

Mollie's reads = sheep, flip-a-coin read, and Oh because I just said so, problem?" reads.
Which makes me way more suspicious.

More suspicious than what? Your initial vote seemed to be based on macmollie voting Desperado. This looks like you searching for reasons to paint macmollie as scummy.

VOTE: macmollie
Lets just say this was achieved through our discussion.

~Om

IIRC this is an example of Om being Om.
Which is pretty null.

I'm currently thinking
Potato-Mantis, with Mantis trying to townread Potato but changing her read to appeal to me
or
Potato-Lynx, due to Mara-Lynx unnecessary conversation which looks forced, as well as Lynx's familiarity with Potato that mollie pointed out.
Or maybe all 3 of them are scum.

lynch me then

okay.

VOTE: mantis

Seriously...

So this you have a problem with, yet theslimer3 does the same thing three times in a post and it's nothing? Again, you're trying to drum up support for your wagon with incredibly flimsy reasoning.

VOTE: thenewearth

[penguin_alien]

penguin I read you loud and clear on tne.

but mac has a buggy and I think he might be right.

VOTE: slimer

What are you seeing on theslimer3? I remember him being rather unorthodox in his play, but it's been a while.

[penguin_alien]

theslimer3 is weird as town (haven'tn played with scum-slimer IIRC) but he can be a good scumhunter. Serra, why lynch him now when, as you say, it would be a least informed time?

[penguin_alien]

Wisdom, serra or havingfitz? Although both seem like you're pushing votes that don't have much behind them. havingfitz is V/LA, and serra replaced a lurky slot. Is serra pushing theslimer lynch really enough to make him your strongest scum read? If so, can you elaborate?

[penguin_alien]

Yes, I'm catching up and deciding which lynch to support, as while I'm not sure thenewearth is town, there are definitely better places to use my vote.

UNVOTE: thenewearth

[penguin_alien]

Serrapaladin makes good points. Plus mollie generally reads Mantisdreamz well, and I trust her read here.

Mantisdreamz, intent to hammer. Claim, please.

Sweet Pertayter, if you're around, what changed between #513 and #597 on WRT Mantis?

[penguin_alien]

Character? And reason for finding Wisdom town?

[penguin_alien]

Present, although drifting off; it's been a long weekend.

[penguin_alien]

Fell asleep, woke up,.wan to go back to sleep. Are we massively compromising on fitz?

[penguin_alien]

Crap,

mod, if you're so inclined, fix typos?

That's L-1?

Fine. Want to go back to sleep.

VOTE: havingfitz

...continuous posting has made me hit submit and be ninja'd five times now...

[penguin_alien]

So Mantis and Wisdom are neighbors. Mantis claimed first as Richard Castle, and Wisdom claimed second as Alexis Castle. This is so blatantly town-town character-wise, I'm not sure why they'd be neighbors and not masons. (Richard and Martha, OTOH...) Which is the only thing making me uneasy: if Wisdom fake-claimed something he figured would look super-town with Mantis's claim.

Wisdom, irrespective of the above, if I'm interpreting the gazillion pages of posts right, you had a scum read on havingfitz. But you didn't want to vote there because you thought scum had organized the wagon? But that didn't make you have a town read on havingfitz at the time, as far as I can tell. None of that translates into a town-Wisdom who would have wanted one of his scum reads to flip; it looks more like a scum-Wisdom who'd made up his scum read on havingfitz and figured that when havingfitz flipped town he'd be able to use it to push the people who'd started the quicklynch wagon.

I know you have strong ideas, and heaven knows I've been scared away from wagons because I didn't like the people who were on them. But that usually applies for me when there are choices, e.g. my town reads are on another wagon. That wasn't an option here.

thenewearth came in and got pretty comfortable tunneling macmollie right quick. The criticism of macmollie in what he picks out doesn't ring true: he calls out what he sees as weak scumhunting and draws questionable connections. Here:

I felt the same way about my predecessor. This was my first time to be scum as well. I felt like if I gave my "reads," Nacho would know that it would be BS. I was hiding/lurking like a coward. Hahaha. Being town is so much more fun for me!

That quote from 503's post game seems pretty apt.

Unvote: Bert

Talk to me about Wisdom. Is the endless one line post ISO their playstyle or is it a relative scumtell? Because so far this game looks an awful lot like Wisdomscum from 503.

yes. wis is scum. let's lynch him

VOTE: wisdom

he does a lot of 1 liners as both alignments but his questions lack follow-up and it seems like town wis would complaining about the slow pace of the game. he isn't the easiest person in the world to meta but this is a gut read too.

Look at how macmollie votes desp, desp says to talk about wisdom, then macmolllie says "Oh sure, vote wisdom"
They're just sheeping, really. If they do think that wisdom was scum, then why would they wait for someone to tell them about wisdom?

Wisdom has been WAY too inconsistent near the end.

I'd be ok with that.

Though I will need to ISO him

First it's scummy to wait to probe a player until someone else calls said player out. Then thenewearth says, "Sure, I'll buy that Wisdom is scummy; let me go look into that." Irony alert: Wisdom's the player in question in the first quote too...

I want to hear from serra before drawing definite conclusions from the Wisdom-Nat-serra triangle of suspicion, but right now I don't think Wisdom's argument holds water. Whether he's being stubborn or scummy, I'm not sure.

[penguin_alien]

and figured that when havingfitz flipped town he'd be able to use it to push the people who'd started the quicklynch wagon.

So I would push people for starting a deadline wagon, even if it was on town? Deadline wagons on town happen all the time.
Also, are you saying that I made up my havingfitz read at the beginning of the day, knowing what will happen at the end of the day?

No, I'm saying that you scumread someone at the start of the day (

and didn't change that read during the day IIRC

looking over your ISO this didn't change at all) who wasn't actually in much danger of getting lynched until right at deadline. He never had more than one vote on him until that last flurry of wagoning. Scum likes other people to lynch their town reads while holding onto their purported scum reads to use as fodder for later in the game. If you're Mafia, you had no especial reason to think havingfitz was an SK; the odds from your perspective would have had him as a townie. So here comes deadline, wagons forming and collapsing elsewhere, and suddenly people are forming one on someone whose lynch you've been advocating. How to avoid jumping on the wagon? Say it's now scum-motivated. You can't backtrack on your havingfitz read without looking like a hypocrite, but you can find a reason to stay off the wagon anyways.

Bottom line, if you're scum you were probably hoping to get a wagon on presumed town-havingfitz somewhere down the line. You have a reputation for tunneling, so no one would think it odd for you to come back to a read you'd been holding since early game later on.

And yes, if havingfitz had flipped town, the part where we didn't lynch people at deadline who at least would have provided lots of player interaction information by virtue of not having been V/LA for so long in favor of HF would have been a fine argument. Still might be. Doesn't excuse your interactions with that particular wagon.

Heck, if the outcome yesterday says one thing, it's that the havingfitz lynch doesn't improve anyone's town standing. It was great for town, but it could have easily been godawful and only been marginally better than a no-lynch.

As noted earlier, I do want to hear from serra. But Nat wasn't at L-1, with only serra there as a hammer option. The biggest wagon I can find had 4 of 7 necessary votes, and since I'd fallen asleep it was unclear whether we'd even get a hammer assuming Bert jumped on as well. From what I can tell, with Nat not self-voting and me not around, the most you'd've gotten would have been six with serra. The other five people weren't around so far as I can tell.

Desperado: macmollie likes me better!

[penguin_alien]

where's your vote penguin

Not sure about Wisdom vs. thenewearth at present. Wisdom's posting plenty without added pressure, and my take on TNE will be significantly influenced by how he starts this day off.

[penguin_alien]

Hold on, going to check that...

[penguin_alien]

...yeah, I assumed that was at the end of Day One. OK, I strongly dislike that post--he knows Wisdom was inconsistent, but still has to ISO him?

Here's my vote, macmollie:

VOTE: thenewearth

[penguin_alien]

I specifically said that I find it odd that the neighborhood flavor is comprised of two claims that are so towny and of characters that trust one another absolutely yet isn't a masonry.

P-edit: what Wisdom said. Heck, Mantis could be fake-claiming, but I'm willing to assume the title character is in the game.

[penguin_alien]

Bert, I didn't 'just comply,' I'd thought that TNE hadn't posted yet today. That shifted my scummish read to a scum read one.

Wisdom, I'm still figuring out. There's time.

[penguin_alien]

The desp vote was a joke. We still don't have a majority, so there's no use.

Here he gives up, saying we have NO majority so we are doomed to no-lynching.
While Natirasha is at 4 votes and he STILL refuses to vote him.

Scum-Natirasha wouldn't've self-voted. And without me around, you had seven people total, the number necessary to lynch. Which would mean the target would have to self-vote, unless you went for someone in {Serra, macmollie, mantis} with pre-existing votes on them. Only town would actually self-hammer in that situation, which means a wagon with the target participating would be bad. Scum might pretend they're willing to, but they have no incentive to get themselves lynched over a no-lynch.

Serrapaladin just isn't setting off any scumdar, Wisdom. I don't trust you, but I'd hope you and Mantis could figure each other out via the neighbor thing. I'm A-OK with my thenewearth vote.

[penguin_alien]

Yes, you tunnel. But usually over things that can be misinterpreted, and the idea that a Nat wagon would have happened just isn't one of them. Besides, I'm not yet looking for my gun to put you out of our misery.

Where did I say there has to be scum in the neighborhood? My only completed games with neighborhoods are town-town neighbors.

[penguin_alien]

And we have ten days, my vote isn't useless.

[penguin_alien]

Castle: I’ve always liked your legs. But now I respect them.
Kate: Yeah, yours aren’t so bad either. You know, for the next police picnic, we should do the three-legged race together.
Castle: You’re on.

1.33

With thirteen alive it will take seven to lynch.

*macmollie - thenewearth [1]
*theslimer3 -
*Sweet Pertayter -
*thenewearth -
*Mantisdreamz - havingfitz, macmollie [2]
*Wisdom -
*Serrapaladin - Theslimer3, Desperado [2]
*Desperado -
*Lynx_Shine -
*Bert -
*Natirasha - Wisdom [1]
*penguin_alien -
*havingfitz - Natirasha, Serrapaladin, Mantisdreamz, Lynx_Shine, bert, Sweet Pertayter [6] [L-1]

Not Voting [1]: penguin_alien

Chapter 1 Ends..

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2013-08-19 03:52:00)

(There are no hints/clues in this flavor or in any flavor of the vote counts or death scenes. It's for entertainment purposes.)

Here's the VC as I was waking up. The first five people listed going down the names were not present. Scum-Nat wasn't going to self-vote. I don't know how much clearer this can be.

And I don't think Mantis or Serra is scum. So why should I vote a week-plus out from deadline just to be on a wagon? That's asinine.

[penguin_alien]

I'm voting for a lurker whose posts I find scummy.

Tell you what, if a majority of the people here say there's no way they'd vote TNE/have a town read on him, I'll concede that my vote is useless and support another lynch. But I can say right now that it won't be you, serra, or Mantis.

[penguin_alien]

penguin, why is it that neither you or Desp have mentioned each other? except for at the beginning you guys were idly asking questions to each other... which kind of appears like possible attempts at distancing from each other, as scum buddies. and the questions kinda petered out and didn't lead to anything

but you guys have not even brought each other up at all. or if i've missed it (i'm looking at both ISO's), then it must have been just a passing comment, if that.

You're right that I haven't had much cause to engage with Desperado. He's been pushing you on a meta read I don't concur with and voicing suspicion of Nat. Neither are causes where I see any particular contribution I can make. He's being dumb WRT you, as far as I can see, but I can't make him interpret your meta differently. Wisdom's tunnel on Nat right now is making me less receptive to that case, but I should probably rectify that.

Wisdom, so my not townreading you means I must be scum? And you're comparing my ability to town read you here to a game where a) 3 of 4 scum had flipped, even if they didn't have as many interactions as one would like, and b) I had a ton of inside info as a mason in that set-up? I can elaborate, but it was pretty situation-specific. Although fine, if you think you have such a distinctive style as town, point me to a scum game where the difference is clear. The most recent one will do.

Here, day two on the heels of you refusing to vote a scum read at deadline, it's not clear to me. If I'm scum for that, fine, whatever.

Macmollie, can you explain more specifically what you're seeing as scummy from Mantis?

[penguin_alien]

if mac thinks she's buddying you.... do you agree that that might actually be the case?

it might be. I don't have a hard grasp on her game in general.

the weirdest thing was to desp, "mollie likes me better than you"

and somehow I feel a weird sense of deja vu and it did not turn out well.

...that was a jest. I highly doubt you like me better than Desperado. I am, however, capable of occasional bouts of levity.

As far as re-evaluting Wisdom goes, he's not really responding to any points that I'm making, so he's just repeating the same poor arguments over and over. Previous Wisdom tunnels I've witnessed have involved him responding more to other people's points, and I'm not getting that from him here.

pirate mollie, the most recent non-Newbie scum game from Wisdom I found was Open 503, the Polygamy one. You were town there watching his scum play: my impression from his ISO there is that as scum he spent a lot more time asking actual questions rather than rhetorical ones and posted even fewer longish posts than he's doing there. How does this compare to his scum game for you? Because I'll admit that this doesn't look like that game to me. (I skimmed the most recent Newbie scum one, but he seemed to have a bit of a teaching hat on there, which makes it less relevant to non-Newbie games to me)

Little as I like Nat's (presumably pretending to be) flipping a coin to vote between me and Desperado, followed by vaguely telling Wisdom that he'd better be right, it's the only anti-town thing I've seen from him recently. So Nat, do you think he's right on either of his reads, or are you just pretending to go along with him so if he gets me lynched and is shown to be wrong, you have a reason to push him?

Sweet Pertayter, how do you go from this:

How you're defending your neighbor doesn't look scummish, though I am a little sus of why Peng things the neighborhood is TvT and isn't considering the fact that one of you may be lying about flavor

which I and someone else pointed out was patently not the argument I was making, to thinking I'm scum? I'd think it was just me, but then there's your previous vote here:

VOTE: Mantis

~Om

which isn't any of your supposed top three suspects of TNE, Desperado, and theslimer, or even anyone you mentioned as possibly scummy. Why the reluctance to push your own scum reads here?

[penguin_alien]

Yeah, not claiming. Not when the whole case is Wisdom saying this isn't my town game just because I won't anoint him town for derp-tunneling. And last time I claimed early, namely before a hammer intent (see /in-vitational 12: claimed early to try to be helpful to town, got lynched anyways) it was completely pointless.

I'm willing to see what thenewearth's replacement does.

UNVOTE: thenewearth

Bert, where are you getting Mantis as scum aside from supposed derp? She claimed

Richard Castle

---not likely scum there.

Nat, you said:

Little as I like Nat's (presumably pretending to be) flipping a coin to vote between me and Desperado, followed by vaguely telling Wisdom that he'd better be right, it's the only anti-town thing I've seen from him recently. So Nat, do you think he's right on either of his reads, or are you just pretending to go along with him so if he gets me lynched and is shown to be wrong, you have a reason to push him?

Yes, 100% the second one. Go reread our discussion at the beginning of the day. I came to the conclusion Wisdom's head is in the right place. I have been busy with the beginning of the semester this weekend, hadn't put too much thought into the game. So I decided to trust Wisdom here and move on.

So the second one, you're prepping to string up Wisdom for my mislynch. Uh-huh.

VOTE: Natirasha

I hate Sweet Pertayter's jump too, but I think he still looks better than Nat.

Desperado, why is thenewearth so firmly town since page three, irrespective of anything since then?

[penguin_alien]

No, town annoyed at lazy people glomping on to a vanity wagon.

[penguin_alien]

To mollie and Bert: Richard Castle is the protagonist. Yes, even when he's skeevily hitting on Beckett in the pilot. I get that fakeclaims could be in play, but I have yet to play in a theme game where the protag is a fakeclaim. I don't 100% discount it, but it would take a much stronger case than anything you've made to make me even condone lynching Mantis.

[penguin_alien]

As far as re-evaluting Wisdom goes, he's not really responding to any points that I'm making, so he's just repeating the same poor arguments over and over. Previous Wisdom tunnels I've witnessed have involved him responding more to other people's points, and I'm not getting that from him here.

How is Wisdom not responding more to other people's points in this game? I don't get it.

The straight-up numbers that were in play at the end of Day One. It's purely objective and he was just ignoring any numbers that didn't support his theory.

So Mantis and Wisdom are neighbors. Mantis claimed first as Richard Castle, and Wisdom claimed second as Alexis Castle. This is so blatantly town-town character-wise, I'm not sure why they'd be neighbors and not masons. (Richard and Martha, OTOH...) Which is the only thing making me uneasy: if Wisdom fake-claimed something he figured would look super-town with Mantis's claim.

wow you are defending Mantis hard based on his flavor/claim

and you still have Wisdom as possible scum after his claim (Alexis Castle), but Mantis as town

/in ITT MACMOLLIE PRESENT: THE COPING WITH WISDOM CLUB

OK, based on the game macmollie cited, I guess it's feasible. I'm just not inclined to buy that Rick and Alexis are neighbors, not masons, given their super-functional father-daughter relationship, which makes me think something's hinky.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry, prod-dodge. I'll catch up here tonight.

[penguin_alien]

UNVOTE: Natirasha

I'll trust that the crumbs are there and give it time to see how legit it is. Not seeing the scum motivation for FG to out a presumed cop.

[penguin_alien]

^ what do you mean, not seeing who Wisdom's partners are on purpose?

I'll name claim: I'm Jenny Ryan.

FakeGod's obliterated my scum read on TNE. Unless he's scum with Nat, in that Nat is also fake claiming/crumbing cop, I don't see it. Plus too much independent thinking on display in his reads lists. FakeGod, you said that you found serra scum for, among other things, attacking Natirasha. If you saw the crumbs, isn't it plausible that serra did as well and was going after you for attacking a possible cop? (I don't know how obvious they were to others; I don't look for crumbs after IaI killed us all dead in NY 161 fake crumbing cop.) Discounting that, then, how strong is your serra scum read?

[penguin_alien]

Yes, totally married after some shenanigans IIRC; I think it's been at least a season since the wedding and the overall drama level has made the wedding small potatoes. But he is rather smitten, and I think she has a better track record for being kidnapped/endangered/plot deviced than most of the characters on the show. :misses wacky crime dramedy:

Care to name claim, or should I pick someone to go next? (this seems less formal than a full-out massclaim)

[penguin_alien]

Right, sorry; I meant attacking you for attacking Nat.

[penguin_alien]

Seven..teen...pages. And counting.

On it.

[penguin_alien]

This is long; bear with me. (I read through enough posts about whiskey that I've earned it, damn it.)

Vote: Mantis

^She killed Wisdom. I tracker her to it.

I also tracked Huntress to Mollie N1--I hammered her because the Mollie/Wisdom/Bert multi-page slapfight wasn't doing anyone any good, the day needed to end, and I probably wouldn't have believed her claim anyway.

So wait, you tracked Huntress to someone who didn't die?

We have a flipped Bodyguard, a claimed Town Cop, and a claimed Town Tracker. Without the Bodyguard in the mix, I'd think the Tracker could be a more misleading investigative role, as a non-protective role is more likely to be tracked to someone who dies, producing a false positive. Bodyguard, OTOH, isn't going to be tracked to a corpse; it would be the corpse if its target was NK'd. Which, given claimed town PRs, means that only a Town Cop could be falsely incriminated. If it started out with a two-man scum team + SK, that gives a tracker somewhere > 67% odds of getting an incriminating result off an actual scum. Toss in a non-Bodyguard town PR, whether it's a Town Cop (for the sake of argument; more on that later) or something else, and you decrease that to...something like still better than 50%, assuming the PR's target wasn't also selected as an NK. (What. Math is hard after 1 AM.) A three-man scum team + SK decreases those starting odds to 50+% and lower them by some amount with other non-protective town PRs.

So, we have a claimed tracker, who fits in via not being 100% guaranteed to get a usable result, versus a claimed cop who fits with an investigation-immune SK. Serra, weren't you in Yates' Mini game where there was a town cop and tracker as the town PRs? I don't know how that would have played out, as you were NK'd N1, but I don't remember much howling post-game about it balance-wise.

Having said that, with a Bodyguard on top of that and two scum factions in play, I'm not sure it's as likely here.

The following is assuming town flips come with claimed PRs being shown as true claims (which I think is a safe assumption, given the skill level of the players involved):

Mantis flipping scum does not exonerate Desperado. Desperado flipping scum does not exonerate Mantis.

Mantis flipping town makes Desperado scum. Desperado flipping town makes Mantis scum.

Desperado flipping scum does exonerate Natirasha for me. Natirasha flipping scum in turn makes Desperado likely town. A bit hesitant here, as I suppose it could be a giant gambit, but if that's going on I'd expect it in the Desperado-Mantis duo.

If Nat is town, Sweet Pertayter is town. Or at least not a problem; I suppose they could be a Survivor, but that's not really an issue for us. If Nat is scum, Sweet Pertayter is indeterminate.

So, starting from Mantis:

Scum-Mantis -> ?-Desp -> ?-Nat -> ?-SP: one of four determined.
Town-Mantis -> Scum-Desp -> Town-Nat -> non-problematic-SP: four of four determined.

Starting from Desp:

Scum-Desp -> ?-Mantis + Town-Nat -> non-problematic-SP: three of four determined.
Town-Desp -> Scum-Mantis + ?-Nat -> ?-SP: two of four determined.

Starting from Nat like some fools apparently are contemplating at some point in the 17 pages:

Scum-Nat -> ?-SP + Town-Desp -> Scum-Mantis: three of four determined.
Town-Nat -> non-problematic-SP + ?-Desp -> ?-Mantis: two of four determined.

And we're not lynching SP today, but that wouldn't shed light on this anyways unless they flipped scum, and I haven't seen any relevant cases for such.

It actually works out about the same for EV of # of alignments determined by my thinking. Looking at the individual cases, if Desperado is scum fakeclaiming a result on Mantis, you do run into the problem that it pretty firmly leaves him as the next lynch and gives us two cleared town, which locks in scum's NK choices for the nights in LyLo if it's a three-man team: Mantis kill = 8/13, next day is likely 7/13 with three scum. If this is gambiting scum-Desperado and we lynch him, scum's in the same boat, except we've staved off LyLo, so they're in an even worse position. OTOH, if he and Mantis are in cahoots, it puts the survivor in great position going forward.

I also know this part is WIFOM fodder, but again if Desperado is scum and Mantis is not, here's what happened: Mafia opted to ignore Nat and SP in favor of killing Wisdom. Then, despite the fact that Wisdom's town flip would have cast some doubt on Mantis anyways, they decide to throw down with her.

I think we average the same amount of useful information for any of those lynches. But given that there is almost certainly an actual town PR withing {Desperado, Natirasha}, we run the lowest risk of losing out on future information (or at least reducing scum's options) by lynching Mantis today.

But. I won't vote until I hear from Desperado why he hammered someone who he saw visit a player who didn't then die. If I missed it, please point it out for me. There's a metric ton of irrelevant stuff here, from figuring out what Mala said in the OP to recapping objective facts of Day Two.

Nat, why did your town read on Mollie slip?

I think waynegg is pretty town here; he seems more motivated to examine things than I'd expect from scum replacing in and presumably chatting with other scum overnight. Serra's train of thought on how to deal with this whole PR claims thing makes me think he's town for how his process overlaps with mine. I expect that today's flip will go a long way toward figuring out a lot of the others.

[penguin_alien]

waynegg, allow me to clarify: I'm Jenny Ryan. I don't think there is a Jenny Shaw on the show. So my character's related to Desperado's fake-claimed character, not FakeGod's claimed character.

serrapaladin's quickhammer yesterday looked really scummy. It's not actually play that I'd expect out of town-serra. The frustration inherent in the vote post could be genuine, but it could also be scum disappointed that the gambit didn't work and a subsequent attempt to squeeze maximum town cred out of it. Town-serrapaladin is rational and logical--quickhammering doesn't fit that for me. I'm also not sure why town-serrapaladin didn't engage in my questions about how cop-tracker set-ups work based on our experience in Mini 1458.

But then FakeGod's 'shaken' reaction at Nat being NK'd is just so phony, and serra calls him out on it promptly. Both scummy, but I don't see them as very likely scum together.

Bert, if you have questions for me, if you want to pressure me, have at it. But saying "I'm going to pressure you" =/= pressure. Yes, I thought we were character claiming when I did so. Obviously I was wrong, but with Desperado's flip and Nat's flipped flavor I think characters are going to be fairly irrelevant anyways.

I've also never gotten the impression that Mantisdreamz is particularly emotional. I think she was scum in the only game I played with her, so I don't know how accurate emotional tells are for her.

Occam's Razor says Mantis is likely town, as Desperado trying to set her up looks most likely, but given that Desperado came out of the gate with guns blazing yesterday, I won't rule out that it was planned. If they're both scum, scenario A has Mantis lynched and Desperado looking like a bonafide tracker. Scenario B has Desperado lynched and Mantis looking like part of a town-town neighborhood. It's pretty neatly wrapped up.

It's not enough for me to want Mantis lynched today, but I'm not shaking the suspicion there. Especially with the whole disingenuous, "PA is scum, why are people voting town-serra?" If you're town thinking I'm scum, make a case, let's talk.

I will not vote Sweet Pertayter--no way are they a GF since, now that we know Nat was being truthful, the SK was apparently investigation-immune. With a likely three-man Mafia team, I don't see two of four scum being immune to the strongest town PR around. waynegg just screams town. I

think

only one of {serra, FakeGod} is scum. That leaves one of {Mantis, Bert} as scum. I don't want to lynch out of the latter set today anyways, and if one of the first set flipped scum, it could still be scum bussing.. Right now I'm leaning serra, but that somewhat depends on what FakeGod comes back with.

[penguin_alien]

nats, you sure you investigated omara as town?

'not mafia' was the result. I don't believe I was redirected. It doesn't stop third party or godfather, though.

waynegg, here. While Nat notes that it doesn't preclude a GF, since it does grant automatic immunity to the SK and we can now be pretty sure Nat is our only investigative role, it would be odd to have his role not work on two of the four scum. Desperado flipping 1-shot BP was probably Mafia's counter to the SK since we haven't seen evidence of a vig, and we know from Nat they have a roleblocker to thwart the cop. Giving them another way to avoid the cop isn't likely as such.

[penguin_alien]

waynegg, we're not lynching Mantis today. What gives?

[penguin_alien]

It's not enough for me to want Mantis lynched today, but I'm not shaking the suspicion there. Especially with the whole disingenuous, "PA is scum, why are people voting town-serra?" If you're town thinking I'm scum, make a case, let's talk.

pretty much the suspicion has carried forward from earlier in the thread, when you were suspecting wisdom. and made a few posts that casted suspicion on his character claim. Wisdom made mention as well, that as town, you'd likely change your mind about him, rather than continuing on with the suspicion.
also, i noticed that you and desp really didn't have a whole lot of interaction... except for right at the beginning, there was a bit of back and forth, and with myself thinking desp was scum, it looked like it was an attempt at distancing on both your parts.

I'm still not sure why Wisdom was so certain that I should have read him as town. The game he cited where I did give a town read on him was a vastly different set of circumstances. And from the flavor we knew at that point, if you've seen any Castle whatsoever, Castle and his daughter being neighbors without being conf-town is weird--they have a really tight bond. If it was Castle and his mother I could see it, since she pushes his buttons sometimes, but I'd have expected them to be masons over neighbors. I do think the flavor since then has pointed less to things being so pat, but I was working off what I knew then from havingfitz's SK flip. Which wasn't much.

Yeah, Desperado didn't do much I thought was super telling one way or the other until he hammered Huntress and claimed to have tracked her to a living player.

I will not vote Sweet Pertayter--no way are they a GF since, now that we know Nat was being truthful, the SK was apparently investigation-immune. With a likely three-man Mafia team, I don't see two of four scum being immune to the strongest town PR around. waynegg just screams town. I

think

only one of {serra, FakeGod} is scum. That leaves one of {Mantis, Bert} as scum. I don't want to lynch out of the latter set today anyways, and if one of the first set flipped scum, it could still be scum bussing.. Right now I'm leaning serra, but that somewhat depends on what FakeGod comes back with.

why do you not think that serra and fakegod could be scum together?

Answer:

But then FakeGod's 'shaken' reaction at Nat being NK'd is just so phony, and serra calls him out on it promptly. Both scummy, but I don't see them as very likely scum together.

To elaborate, it read very naturally, not like scum playing out rehearsed lines. While I'm leaning toward lynching in the {serra, FG} group today, I wouldn't necessarily think that one flipping town makes the other scum; I could just be way off.

Independently, I'm seeing possible scum-FG; FG keeps saying he's confused, like here:

bah, I'm confused.

Scum effectively gave town a confirmed town by shooting Nati.

Why the hell would they do that when they have a roleblocker?

It doesn't make any sense.

pedit: I'm not voting anyone until I rethink this through, Wayne.

While trying to draw us into NK speculation...on why scum would kill a claimed PR. There are possibilities, but I don't think any of them really benefit town in discussing them. If I'm wrong, do point out how it helps, but I don't see it.

waynegg, I don't feel like looking up the theory behind the 100/200 point lynches--how do you determine which are 200 point and which are 100 point? I get the rest of it.

[penguin_alien]

Sorry, rough weekend.

Jenny Ryan, VT.

I think everyone else has full claimed. Back in a bit.

[penguin_alien]

...and now there's more to catch up on. BRB.

[penguin_alien]

I feel really leery of all the day-ending votes we've had since Desperado's quickhammer (she says, after hammering havingfitz) with serra and Bert. But Mantis's quick-jump is odd too. Waynegg's actually my best town read ATM. Eh, I don't really think scum-Mantis would toss out a vote like that, although I guess it depends if we're at LyLo or not.

Bert's gotten really spammy, but I think his impulsivity is town for him, even if it does come off as way anti-town.. And I can't get past serra's behavior around the Desperado lynch. Not just the quickhammer, but also the unwillingness to consider the likelihood of tracker-cop given his participation in Yates' game.

I'm not voting waynegg. Not totally convinced of anything else.

[penguin_alien]

I'm leaning serra, especially since waynegg is, then you, then Mantis, then way far away, waynegg. Scum to town. I seem to recall mollie thought Mantis was scummy, and being very sure her slot is town makes me think it's more valid. Push comes to shove, I don't know if you or Mantis is serra's partner, if there are three scum left. I'd want to look through double-ISOs if we hit scum today and the game doesn't end.

[penguin_alien]

That list clearer, Bert?

[penguin_alien]

If he were town, he would have already been hammered. This is probably LyLo, the gang's all here, and a townie is voting him...

So either you or Serra is scum is what you're saying

Bert, do you think there's any likelihood this is waynegg's scum play?

[penguin_alien]

Fine. I think it's serra. Not seeing anything to change my mind going down here.

VOTE: serrapaladin

[penguin_alien]

i didn't think this day would end so quick

Yeah...I kept waiting for Bert to vote, and I guess he was waiting for me to vote. And after seeing the Scummie nom for the unvote/vote scum slip, I was worried about top-of-page issues. Everyone being on at once meant it could have gone south quickly.

I think most of scum's choices are laid out in the QT...somewhere. Apparently Bert and I talked a lot...?

Thanks for modding, Mala! Fun game (and Castle theme = better than castle theme...!); at first I was thinking it was scum-sided, but if the SK hadn't been eliminated early, it would have been way hairier, especially with havingfitz behind the gun.

Bert and Desperado, it was a blast!

[penguin_alien]

crazy though.. Bert, even if we lynched penguin today, i don't think i would have lynched you after that.......
penguin. nice job! you did have me fooled a couple of times! you played it so cool

I think the plan was to NK you next anyways. Would you have voted waynegg or serra over Bert? You had me nailed pretty quickly in the neighbor QT!

(Mafia QT is linked in Mala's spreadsheet with the dead and neighbor QTs)