Mini 1466 -- Two Room Mafia II (Game Over)

[Ankamius]

Hello everyone. I'm your resident crazy guy.

UNVOTE: Marquis

I have some reading to do.

[Ankamius]

Hey, here's my catch-up post. I'm only providing the link to the first post I have a comment on in the page, so you'll have to search for the other ones yourself.

Camn - #34/#39 - Town

Thieving Keyblade - #38/#40 - Scum

Thieving Keyblade - #46 - Seriously, this slot is so scummy.

Thieving Keyblade - #73 - Scum

DCLXVI - #89 - This is actually a pretty good point. TK's response (#90) is pretty bad.

DCLXVI - #92 - This slot is town.

JasonWazza - #112 - I'm not liking this post. Scumvibes.

I'm ignoring the walls.

The Gambler - #116 - He has my two biggest scumreads as his two biggest town reads. That breaks my heart.

(Page 6) I don't understand the Camn wagon. The point about her saying "ALLEGEDLY a hydra" looks like a huge stretch and a rather icky reason to start a wagon. If anyone else jumps onto this, they immediately get significant scumpoints.

PeregrineV - #177-#180 - Really? Scumpoints.

I'm at the bottom of page 8 right now. I'm stopping here for now since I'm getting distracted. I'll get to the rest either within a few hours or tomorrow osmetime.

[Ankamius]

I will finish my reread during my next awake session. I somehow forgot about this game after my last post and I'm just about to go to bed.

[Ankamius]

Moar reading time:

Skullduggery - #219 - This is the first post from this slot I've actually read, and I already have a scumread on this slot. This post reeks of passiveness and careful treading, and the case on Rikablu is really, really meh. Within the spoiler tag -> The first point is straight up bad (the two quotations by themselves reference different situations; the first quotation says he think having people claim rooms as a policy is bad, while the second one clearly is not from a policy) and the second point is based on the first, therefore bad.

SnakePlissken - #222 - Okay, this is where the analysis of his wagon ends. Literally any vote for this slot after the aforementioned post is dead null.

BeautyAndTheBeast - #227 - Townpoints -- I agree. BTW, I don't think the hammer is scummy. I've seen it from town more than scum, but I believe it's null. Camn's attack on it looks slightly town

DCLXVI - #234 - Okay, I'm going to keep a close eye on this slot. I've noticed that he started pinging one of my secret scumtells right after I made my first post, and he's starting to ping it here too. This is rather disturbing considering he was my strongest town read up to this point.

This page 11 argument between BATB and DCLXVI is really... bleh. I'm getting scumvibes off DCLXVI's side of this (completely unrelated to the scumtell noted above).

The Gambler - #275 - Yay, this slot is town!

I'm getting a Town-VI vibe from Marquis.

camn - #326 - I fully disagree. At the time of this post, DCLXVI has done basically no scumhunting throughout the entire day. Going after BatB for the quickhammer is such an easy thing to latch onto that I don't believe for a second that him tunneling on it is townposting.

JasonWazza - #351 - Townvibes

DCLXVI - #385 - This is so arbitrary, it hurts.

Yeah, Marquis 437 was bad. It's not enough for me to have a significant scumread on him, though.

---

Okay, I'm pretty much caught up. Here are my reads pretty much in order (note that except for DCLXVI, everyone at the edges is basically some degree of nulltown or nullscum depending on where they're at):

Town

Camn
The Gambler
BeautyAndTheBeast
Alabaska J

Null

Marquis
JasonWazza
PeregrineV
Skullduggery

Scum

DCLXVI
Elyse

---

VOTE: Elyse

[Ankamius]

Few notes:

1. I'll respond to shit later. I know there's at least one question I was asked; I haven't forgotten about it.
2. Elyse is at L-2 now. Don't go full retard please.
3. I forgot what the third thing was. I'll probably remember eventually. Or not; that's probably more likely.

Operation Deathify is a goooooooooooooooo []=== ===[]

[Ankamius]

Marquis Elyse

(2) (

DCLXVI

- Elyse - camn -

The Gambler

)

Thanks.

[Ankamius]

The first point is straight up bad (the two quotations by themselves reference different situations; the first quotation says he think having people claim rooms as a policy is bad, while the second one clearly is not from a policy)

What difference does it make whether they're "policy" or not? What is the significance of that word in this situation?

From what I can tell, policy in this case means a sort of known plan or finding a way to use the setup's quirk to town's advantage.

The original post of him claiming what room he'd go into doesn't fall into that category at all, since that was the fourth post in the game. Pulling a connection between an RVS post that can't in any way be confirmed as him outright claiming it or just screwing around with a statement he made condemning the action in a completely different circumstance is really iffy at best.

[Ankamius]

JasonWazza - #112 - I'm not liking this post. Scumvibes.

Tell me how that post is scummy.

It gave off a vibe of trying to put suspicion on Rikablu without actively pushing suspicion on him. It was a safe way to make that statement.

[Ankamius]

Right room.

[Ankamius]

You wound me, Camn.

[Ankamius]

My reads haven't really changed since my reads post.

[Ankamius]

I'm going to cancel my V/LA. As it turns out, the issue was resolved a lot faster than I thought it would be.

[Ankamius]

I left for ten minutes and find that we have a fresh votecount that reminded me of this:

Why is PeregrineV being ganged up upon instantly the moment after being flipped again?

Last note: Welcome chkflip. I look forward to your thoughts on everything that has occured thus far. Claims as to which rooms your slot went to N1 and N2 would be pretty nice as well, since I don't remember your predecessor ever disclosing them (although I could just as well be wrong since I'm not looking back to check). Give us your thoughts and comments once you have read through everything.

[Ankamius]

Because he's scummy

Thanks. That's sufficient for me to not consider joining the wagon at this time.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Skullduggery

I can explain this a bit later today when I can form coherent thoughts btter, but there's quite a few things about what he's said today that I really dislike.

[Ankamius]

Went right.

VOTE: camn

Is Alabaska still Scum?

Do me a favor, would you? Summarize that case in your own words, please. Why did Peregrine vote for Marquis?

After all, why would scum turn down a chance to vote two townies and instead go for the bus in this situation?

I have a better question: Why would a Scum player turn down the chance to hammer Marquis and instead try to start a counter-wagon on Elyse just a few days before the Day Two deadline?

I know we're getting into WIFOM territory here, but think about it. If I was Scum, I could have easily just hammered Marquis and I wouldn't have attracted any suspicion for it because, as you said yourself, there was motivation for both Town and Scum to want him lynched. Here are your exact words:

Spoiler:

In other words, I don't see any real discernible way of determining whether or not someone on the wagon is scum. Town and scum would have been on it for basically the same reasons (even if the motivations are completely opposite).

So why didn't scummy ol' Skullduggery just hammer Marquis when the opportunity presented itself if I knew that there would be no negative repercussions?

These three things are the primary things I'm currently voting Skull for.

[Ankamius]

Okay, I'm going to reread some shit again and post more coherent things within the hour.

[Ankamius]

Because he's scummy

Why is PeregrineV being ganged up upon instantly the moment after being flipped again?

me and elyse equal ganging up on him?
that seems like a bit of a stretch.

Why is PeregrineV being ganged up upon instantly the moment after being flipped again?

Ganged up on? He's being voted by two people.

Okay, I should have looked into this earlier.

I ISOed both Elyse and The Gambler to see what their reasoning for voting PeregrineV to see if them being frustratingly vague is from them already outlining a case.

...I found that Elyse had PV as a scumread very early, then pretty much stayed low on the reasoning department on it for the rest of the game, while The Gambler basically flopped all over the place and never really outlined any reason for PV to be scum.

The fact that the instant wagon was waved away by these posts just reeks, even without this.

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Skullduggery
VOTE: The Gambler

I can now fully endorse this wagon.

[Ankamius]

...I found that Elyse had PV as a scumread very early, then pretty much stayed low on the reasoning department on it for the rest of the game, while The Gambler basically flopped all over the place and never really outlined any reason for PV to be scum.

He was lurking, so I was applying pressure in order to sort him out. Unfortunately this town doesn't move so fast and these sort of things don't work so well.

It would've been much more effective to say this earlier.

[Ankamius]

Let's not lynch chkflip.

[Ankamius]

Left room.

[Ankamius]

VOTE: Elyse

I still like this a lot. I'm willing to gun DCLXVI down if this wagon doesn't gain any momentum, though. Skuillduggery is a wagon I can definitely get behind too.

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Elyse
VOTE: Skullduggery

No.

It's literally just as likely that the people who were in the same room each night starting N2 is a scumteam, but you're only focusing on the two cases that have all of them in the same room.

[Ankamius]

That entire post is giving me bad vibes and you were already one of my top scumreads.

[Ankamius]

Two people meeting one night and not the next night doesn't exactly confirm that the pairing doesn't exist either.

[Ankamius]

Skull.

It would really help if Opera would stop going full retard.

[Ankamius]

Ok, well, here's the thing: The conclusions don't work and he's stating them like they're facts.

It doesn't account for people lying, and it doesn't account for scum not communicating correctly or even going into opposite rooms on purpose.

Despite this, he's assuming that every crossed out pairing doesn't work. At all. Then at the end he lines up lynches.

Also, effort =/= town.

[Ankamius]

Yeah well, chkflip won't flip scum, so you're shit out of luck there.

[Ankamius]

You don't need to constantly be talking with your partner to coordinate what you're going to do.

[Ankamius]

Also, I like how you don't respond to half my reasons for the conclusions not working, then ask me to explain it, too.

This is really pinging me hard now.

[Ankamius]

I basically skimmed past camn's thing on Jason mainly because I forgot Jason was even in the game.

[Ankamius]

Okay, let me put this another way: It's easy to fake that logic in some way if you're scum, lying being the most easy one.

I'd rather not explain my reasoning for chkflip town until I absolutely have to. Just know that anyone hammering him without letting me speak it WILL confirm them scum in my eyes.

[Ankamius]

I'm assuming you've figured it out by now?

[Ankamius]

K.

UNVOTE: Skullduggery
VOTE: JasonWazza

It really shouldn't take more than a quick look at his recent ISO to figure out why.

[Ankamius]

Yep, Jason's probably scum.

[Ankamius]

BatB is still probably town.

[Ankamius]

That specific info could end up winning the game.

[Ankamius]

Wee woo wee woo

[Ankamius]

I am back from my trip, and therefore my V/LA.

I'm tired as hell though. I'll try to get something more concrete out today, but I might not be able to.

[Ankamius]

That's incredibly weak.

Don't worry, I'll come completely clean with what is going on for everyone that hasn't figured it out for themselves yet if one of us is close to being lynched.

[Ankamius]

This conversation is giving me a headache.

VOTE: Elyse

[Ankamius]

Hnng. Sorry guys, lot of shit happening right now.

UNVOTE: Elyse
VOTE: chkflip

I'll get back to Elyse tomorrow. I feel trusting someone I know is conftown on a slot that I already thought wasn't all that town is better for right now.

[Ankamius]

Okay, yeah, I can see why fitz is scum from his posts this game. I'm more comfortable with this now.

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: chkflip
VOTE: havingfitz

I meant to do that the first time. >_>

[Ankamius]

Havingfitz flipping scum simplifies a lot, such as the fact that my reads are completely ass backwards.

Havingfitz flipping scum puts Elyse in a majorly positive light and Skullduggery can be moved to the town side of the spectrum. I don't see a lot of reason for BatB to be scum with DCLXVI. I can definitely see camn being DCLXVI's partner. PeregrineV can remain a giant question mark. If camn is town, then he's probably the last scum anyways.

VOTE: camn

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: camn

Yeah, that was a quick L-1.

Skull: I don't understand how your first point confirms that at all.

PEdit: Really?

[Ankamius]

RIP

I'm really into a BatB or PeregrineV lynch today.

[Ankamius]

Sure is active in here.

[Ankamius]

Sure is active in here.

Then maybe you should do something about it. You're confirmed Town. You should be taking charge and running this game. Find Scum.

I'm still working on my reread. I should have something to show for it by the end of today.

I'm working on it.

Also just saying if I was scum I would've killed Ank, not chk. Chk townread me and Ank voted for me yesterday.

Are you sure about this?

Everyone should take a moment to look at Post 417 first. That's a good place to start.

All I really got from that reads list is that I'm not going to think it's very easy to get help from it.

---

Like I said, I'm working on reads right now. I looked back at a few things and am processing them, although now I'm starting to be even more sure that DCLXVI or another scum bullshitted at least one of their room choices. This makes me think Skullduggery is more town since trying to pass off #854 as truth when he's mafia with DCLXVI is basically a retarded gambit.

[Ankamius]

I was specifically asking about the second part since it's not exactly true.

[Ankamius]

Elyse wanting me dead over Chkflip actually makes a lot of sense, even though the point she used earlier was pretty much false (considering I specifically stated she's my top town read on the last day phase). She 1v1ed the cop as scum in LyLo and I was pretty much the driving force that got her lynched over the actual cop. This is the game

It bugs me a little that this wasn't really mentioned in favor of the flimsy reason she actually stated, but it doesn't have that slimy feel to it. I believe that scum would have tried to change their story to this instead of sticking with that reason.

I'll read through the rest of the new posts a little later, but right now I wanted to make sure this gets down in case the server shits itself again.

[Ankamius]

BatB: If you don't state who is scum and give any kind of reasoning why, you're the only person I will be voting today.

The clock's ticking.

[Ankamius]

PeregrineV: What are your completed reads? This is important to my own analysis.

[Ankamius]

Sorry, I've been trying to slowly catch up on all my games since I've been busy focusing on my new job lately.

This one just happened to be the last one I'm trying to catch up on since it will take a lot of time to be on top of it again.

[Ankamius]

Skullduggery is right in that PV/Elyse scumteam doesn't make any sense. It wouldn't exactly be hard for one to make a sudden case into voting Skull (to reduce suspicion enough to buy time) and the other just hammering when they next come on.

1176 Elyse -- BatB > ?
1191 Skullduggery -- Elyse > PeregrineV > BatB
1238 BatB -- Skull = PeregrineV > Elyse
1248 PeregrineV -- Elyse > ?
1253 Skullduggery -- BatB > ?

I was hoping for a little more in that little line of suspicion order, and I could have sworn I saw more when I initially went through this.

PV/Skullduggery team makes no sense whatsoever because of that though, due to the sudden change in pressure by Skullduggery just five posts after PV lists Elyse as his biggest target. I don't see a Skullduggery/Elyse team either with how hard they argued with each other and the initial SD suspicion.

Honestly, that alone means that BatB is the best lynch here. Since every double-scum team not including that slot is most likely not the case, then this slot is at the very least a safe bet. If BatB is town, then I'd have to look at this day a little closer.

It's not exactly a secret that I was most likely going to go for BatB in the first place.

It's 16 hours to deadline as of this post. I will be able to get on before then guaranteed, so I will wait for responses before voting.

[Ankamius]

Too late.

VOTE: BeautyAndTheBeast

[Ankamius]

If my replace-in reads end up being accurate (besides Gambler), I'm going to laugh so hard.

Anyway, going to think for a while before making any hasty decisions.

[Ankamius]

PeregrineV, do you have more of a case? Quote it if you made one already.

[Ankamius]

Okay, I'll go into those after I'm off work today. I did a cursory glance and wish I hadn't, since I'm suddenly seeing a few town things from those posts.

Ugh, this needs a lot of thought.

[Ankamius]

PerV: What room did you enter last night?

I promise I will vote after this question is answered.

[Ankamius]

That's not quite how I see it, but now the question is fairly pointless.

I fully anticipate work today being entirely draining (with a possibility of tomorrow being more of the same), so I'm just going to vote now while I know I can.

VOTE: PeregrineV

[Ankamius]

I feel pretty bad that the reason we ended up winning in the end was because I was too time-crunched to really go through and make a decent read through things the last couple of days. I wasn't joking when I said I found a few things indicating Pere-town and I bet I would've been really conflicted had I managed to find the time to really go back and investigate things further.

I'm glad I managed to completely reverse my reads from completely wrong to mostly right by the end, though. It's actually incredibly rare for that to happen; my reads early are almost always better than my reads late.

Also, being able to read Elyse correctly twice in a row makes me feel better.

[Ankamius]

One last thing:

Sorry for not putting a whole lot of effort in this game compared to the amount you put into mine, RedCoyote. It was pretty rude to just suddenly vanish for several days at a time from this game almost constantly.

[Ankamius]

Wait, chkflip and I were in the same room?

We weren't made aware of this...

[Ankamius]

Or was that the night I forgot to decide?