Mini 1526: OCRemix Mafia (Game Over)

[fferyllt]

hi guys

Catching up!

[fferyllt]

Through page 9, some of my early thoughts have become outdated as I've read further, but I'm going to go ahead and make the observations anyway.

He's pulling a subtle version of the "you'll be sorry for lynching me" card now in case anyone missed it.

There was nothing subtle about it. This bothered me a little before I saw the mason claim.

Then you can't yell at me for deathtunneling anymore :>

You weren't deathtunneling.

Vote: Wake88

2012

...eww.

Wake is in my town pile. He's good posting.


The whole notscience thing is just WIFOM trap. If he's scum it's not because he's hamming it up or claiming obvtown or anything that he would be going overboard on. These are things he would do irregardless of alignment. The main that irks me though is his "fuck town" mentality, which I would consider playing against his wincon if he really is town.

Toog's post resonates.

Chocolate truffles?

That would certainly help

I'm trying to better read Natirasha. Wanna share your reads on him with me?

Sure, his jump on ns for the self-vote felt like when he wanted to get me lynched when I used to self-vote, then his back pedal and sudden coordination with ns feels fake as fuck.

Looking forward to your reaction to the mason claim.

VOTE: Sakura Hana

We're both mason buddies and scumbuddies.

Also, as I stated, ns is my mafia protege.

Yeah something about this text feels off. Not to mention their unnatural interactions that whole page.

I didn't like this post when I initially read it, but she was right that there was something off in Nati and notsci's reactions.

The whole notscience thing is just WIFOM trap. If he's scum it's not because he's hamming it up or claiming obvtown or anything that he would be going overboard on. These are things he would do irregardless of alignment. The main that irks me though is his "fuck town" mentality, which I would consider playing against his wincon if he really is town.

Nah, I fully see ns pouring on the ham as scum. I still have a feeling he might be, but a sound of genuineness was through our page four discussions and Sakura sounded overly bloodthirsty.

What's the rush?

I really don't want this day to last fifty pages.

Natirasha, could you explain your thought process to me, please? You think that Notscience is Scum, but you're willing to work together with him to eliminate Sakura because you think she's Scum too. That means you think they're Scum together, yes? So do you think that Notscience is just bussing his partner by going along with your plan? If so, could you point out the posts that connect Notscience and Sakura?

I think ns is scum->page four I think he has a possibility of being town+Sakura looks likes she's doing her awkward hardbussing routine->lynch Sakura to help cement read on ns. ns really isn't in a position not to listen to whatever I say, since his primary goal this game should be to convince me he's town over the rest of you.

Why is Sakura a bigger priority than Notscience right now? What will Sakura's flip tell you about Notscience?

Sakura gets...heavyhanded as scum. Sakura's flips really inconsequential to ns's now that I think about it since she would bus like this and she would push like this, but ns has a higher chance of being town at the moment IMO.

Apparently playing anti-town is the thing nowadays. And i'm surprised he avoided answering my question so i'm thinking of ns+nat scumteam.

I play as I play.

Why's it gotta be either NS or Sakura? That's tripping my Scumdar a little bit there.

Because they have a higher than average chance of being scum.

I think your reaction is important Nat, because as Town your opinion is just as important as mine and everyone else's. Please, please share your reactions.

I really don't have a reaction.

Would you share your reasoning on why you're voting Sakura?

Notice how, under the smallest bit of pressure from those most familiar with her, she turned her tone from a heavy-push to heavy-defense?

But she was picking up on some real stuff here? I agree her tone seemed off.

Is it beyond the realm of possibility that Sakura could fake the stuff on this page?

You probably know her better than I do, so...

My take at this point is that the AtE does seem off somehow, but that it could be due to picking up some off-notes in the interactions of the people pushing her.

V/LA until Thursday. Finals and stuff.

Varsoon we can dance after I come back

You won't escape me this game, GiF. I'll hunt you to the ends of this Earth. You'd better be ready to dance on Thursday.


As for the rest of you!

Shame for narrowing your scope!

There are plenty of players in this game that deserve your scrutiny. By putting so much focus on Notscience, Sakura, and Nati this early on, we're letting other players coast it out or appear 'pro-town' by chasing these players.

Hark! We need to re-evaluate the game as a whole, and start being critical of everyone.


UNVOTE:
My vote achieved what I needed it to. If GiF doesn't dance with me, he'll find my vote flying back to greet him.

Now, everyone should give an account of themselves.

I liked this comment about narrowing scope. Did you and GiF get each other sorted? I'd like to sheep GiF if he's been townreading you.

K so, ns and I are masons.

I'll get to this game later.

Masons don't voluntarily out themselves, especially by experienced players. They're either Scum (foolish for Scum to do), or gambitting VTs.

In the Xenogears game notsci claimed inno child early day 1 with just a handful of votes on him. I don't like the super early claim, assuming it's real, but meh.

[fferyllt]

Do you two have day-talk, by any chance? Because if you do, I'd be more inclined to believe that you could coordinate something like this.

I had the opposite feeling - it looked like the convo they had about whether to out was something they had to do in-thread due to not having day talk.

I feel like.. Masons would be more inclined to play it low or close to the chest rather than try to "lynch" the other for reactions, idk it just doesn't fit what I would consider mason play. I could be persuaded that Nat tried to bus NS, but then changed his mind and covered it up as if they were masons.. it would be an interesting play and it could work but it's a flimsy idea that I wont persuade until late game, because a NS-Nat scum duo just looks very unlikely, and I think their alignments will just solve themselves later on in the game. Scum will probably try to kill one of them if they actually are town anyways.

Sakura actually staying in the game is scummy, her slot would be likely town if she actually replaced out, but she didn't, so she is scummier for it.

Day 1 of the Fire Emblem Awakening game called.

She said she was replacing out of all her games over being run up over a "scumslip" that wasn't a scumslip. She did wind up replacing out of every game...except the FEA game, which was the proximate cause. She was town. I think that game marks a watershed moment though. I'm not getting the same sort of vibe here.

To the question on what our idea learned, you can refer to my reads. Quite a few refer to the ways people handled it.

We don't have daytalk, but the plan couldn't backfire because I'd get to claim unless someone auto-hammered when I reached L-1. While you say it got little, I disagree. I got good reads on:

Sakura
Varsoon
Venmar
Wake

Just from it alone

You posting an actual reads list this early in the game was p shocking!

Nati's post 239 is what I'd expect town-Nati to say here.

I also like the Nati/Varsoon interaction on page 10.

Venmar I actually do have a slight scumread on.

Wake's probably town, but he better not start fucking lurking. I want more annihilator beams, less tractor beams.

Your Venmar read comes as a little bit of a surprise, but I'm in townhunt mode atm so maybe this will become more clear in a bit.

286 - bert comments on notsci's reads list. parallelism! and omg 291 - bert cusses! what the hell?

299 - I like kagami's reasoning for town Toog here.

308 - bert paranoia. making note to see if it rings genuine as I read further.

Since when are Varsoon and wake masons?

I actually think they're not quite masons.

What were you thinking?

As I said, I don't like how you two are claiming Masons Day 1. I don't trust it. And if it's the truth, that you both are Masons, and you've outed yourselves Day 1, you've hurt Town tremendously. You're not VTs, because VTs under normal conditions wouldn't both come together and do this. Masons DON'T claim Day 1. That's beyond stupid unless there's a very good reason. Why do you think Town Cop and Doc don't claim Day 1 unprovoked, either? If that's why you think I'm Scum, your reasoning is absolutely flawed. Your point is dismissed.

By claiming early, I managed to get reads on several players that would have been way more difficult to get a read on. So, no. It was useful. Here's the real issue- You assume we're both the same alignment (whereas if one of us was actually a VT and the other was scum, that is an awful easy way to make one conftown or line up a lynch) which is something you don't even address.

So no, you're scum, and need to die.

Assuming you're Masons, what you've done is give Scum a damned good reason to shoot one of you. And you're damned right I'm going to assume you're both the same alignment,

because you denied you two have Daytalk but Nati said you both had communication before the game officially began.

What kind of crap are you trying to pull?

And I DON'T see one of you being Mason and one of you being a VT, because there's the FOG OF WAR where Player Mason doesn't know that Player VT is Town, and Player VT doesn't know that Player Mason is Town.

Please tell me someone has pointed out the flaw in Wake's understanding of "no daytalk".

I want to call this a town tell.

Do you have any completed scum games at MS? The game where you were scum with me/nacho and replaced out had daytalk, so it's not useful in figuring out why you thought this.

-- Ok yeah players were on top of this.

And...

I'll get then list to you tomorrow, Wake, but I love claiming early.

Anyways, Kagami, yeah, Wake just committed like a perfect towntell.

as if I needed confirmation at this point, Nati posts what I had been thinking.

Ns is just being dumb and I'm going to tell him exactly why in our QT tonight.

You don't have a QT thread.

ffs.

please don't be an idiot this game.

I've read this, and it really seems that NO ONE is even focused on scum hunting!!!!

"yeah fuck it lets just speed lynch some kid"
"bluh bluh mechanic rant"
*reads are nowhere in sight*

>_____>

Terrible post. And you lynched her. There's hope that the thread gets better.

My activity in terms of content is really spotty right now, will be until Xmas is over. I'm following the thread though casually, and I am not trying to ignore your questions - I hope to get them answered ASAP

This post in the midst of all the fur flying was almost hilariously out of place. bert, you're making me nervous.

I'm up to page 25 and my head hurts.

wtf all the claim/soft claim retractions.

[fferyllt]

Ffery when you're done reading I'm going to have an issue for you

At first I read this as "I'm going to have an issue

with

you.

You were all obvtown until I got to the part where you said the mason claim was fake. Now I'm having PTSD from NY 165.

I'm taking a break. I'll probably finish the catch-up before any drunkposting happens.

[fferyllt]

Wake I'm going to wait until I'm fully caught up before answering your questions.

fun fact: you never asked me any fancily formatted questions in the space game.

[fferyllt]

Nati, where exactly did you and NS communicate amongst each other that you were both going to fakeclaim Masons? Because, well, I saw no communication anywhere where you two did so.

We didn't. It was seat of my pants.

VOTE: Nati

Even if I get lynched first, you're going to get lynched after I flip town.

Yeah, I somehow doubt I'm getting lynched here.

The mason claim has a methodology to it.

Okay so, the mason claim.

It begins with my ns push stalling out.

So I claim masons with him, it forces him into an awkward position if chooses to accept the free towncred.

If scum kill either of us, it clears the other because they didn't know we were lying.
If scum kill ns then they cleared one of my targets for me.
If scum kill me then it casts a fuckton of doubt on ns(why would a townie go along with this claim?)
If they don't kill either of us, it pretty much confirms they know were lying(and there is likely scum in the masons).

Additionally, it forces them to take a public stance. Take caled--she pretty much said she knew we were lying multiple times. Hey? Because one of me or ns is scum! The lack of nking us supports that. Moreover, look at ns's reason for voting caled. He refused to until we called it a policy lynch. It seems pretty obvious to me their scum partners.

The scum kill is really weird given the claims/soft claims and it's making me think of NY 165. In that game Serene (DGB/Kuribo/Fate hydra) claimed masons with a player they were strongly townreading who was up for a possible policy lynch. It happened much later in the day than what you did, and it looked forced.

They weren't masons.

They were both town, and dramonic had interesting reasons for going along with the claim - he was an unlimited bullet-proof townie, and he also had a strong townread on Serene.

It went really badly in the long run, though.

Anyway, there are some parallels to what's going on here. And I feel like you left out the "both town" possibility.

And so has notsci.

[fferyllt]

Varsoon, was your neighborhood active during night 1?

[fferyllt]

Okay, thanks. I think I'm just about caught up, so I'll let thoughts sizzle and try to comment on random stuffs throughout the upcoming days and nights so as not to spam this place up.

Venny, you sure Kagami's the right wagon for today?

And Varsoon, that's so incredibly risky of you to do as town. Ugh, my gut is saying you're lying about your claim but you're town. UGH discomfort fa-la-la-la-la.

There's an air of sincerity in Wake's posts, tempted to call him town too. Also trying to resist the temptation to say "Wake is being too nice to be town" and WIFOM my own argument and unconvince myself LOL. Right, gotta answer his beam questions tonight I think.

Did you miss that he stopped being nice?

[fferyllt]

Yeah that's closer to where I am, a siren's song telling me Kagami's town.

But whatever

VOTE: Kagami

I don't understand this vote. :/

[fferyllt]

Alright, I'll trust Kagami for now.

Unvote

Lets get this clear, the case on Toogeloo is just Wake throwing a sissy tantrum over Toogie lying about "soft claiming" cop, which Toog already explained. Wake is being unreasonable due to his twisted beliefs when it comes to lying, so ignore him.

Unfortunately i'm still suspect of Varsoon cause he neighbored Skull, which I don't like.

But please, since when does a Vanilla claim clear someone? That's RETARDED. Lynch her.

P.S Varsoon's wimpy jump off of the Kagami wagon on sight of a Vanilla Claim is also suspect.

I get flak but Eddie doesn't?
I don't like when people claim VT in an unknown setup when they're neck is on the line.
I don't like how many people are already all "When Kagami flips town..."
That said, Kagami lynch still gives us the most info. So, fuck it, I'm retarded.
VOTE: Kagami


To Wake: The one reason I'd see for you pushing my lynch if you're town is because of my role-claim and action-claim.
Neighborizer isn't one of my shots.
I didn't target anyone last night.
I was making a reference to Calvin & Hobbes Mafia, where I was scum and the first night I was tracked to a neighbor shot on the first NK.
I was hoping to get a reaction--especially out of EddieFenix, who was scum with me in that game.

ffs.

So, no reactions. What do you make of that?

[fferyllt]

chicken fajita quesadilla

Deep Dish Pizza!

I am officially caught up, I think. I kinda want to let my thoughts simmer for a bit.

[fferyllt]

I'm confused about what the motivation behind lying about bizarre stuff (like hiding behind a dead person) is.

What? Did I miss a page?

[fferyllt]

Lying doesn't insinuate scum. I'm not trying to outsmart Varsoon.

I'm confused about what the motivation behind lying about bizarre stuff (like hiding behind a dead person) is.

Lying makes you Scummy. Lynch all liars. Just ask Ffery about the dangers of lying (i.e. gambitting).

...and whoever mentioned you trying to outsmart Varsoon? Am I making you nervous? Because you seem to be adding things to your posts that ought not be added.

Please clarify your latter quote, because it could be interpreted in different ways.

But you weren't scum and I didn't think you were scum. That's why I was so angry - because I thought you were town.

[fferyllt]

Fferyllt

———✹

You and I are in another game together. Is there anything from Mini 1516: Mafia in Space you may be able to use to make connections in this game regarding my gameplay, and yours? Your current read on me?

I'm really curious if as scum you can simulate the kind of paranoia you've displayed. Players can fake paranoia pretty easily IME, but fake paranoia usually doesn't feel like the real deal to me. I don't expect to be able to work with you right now, given your stances. We'll see.

———✹

If you are Town, you seem to be better as Town.

That said, I would like to know what reads if any you have, particularly those you are Scumreading. Even those that trip your Scumdar a little.

I don't know what the bolded means. I'll post a reads list in a while. I want to interact some first.

———✹

Have you read through the notscience and Natirasha events? If so, thoughts?

My thoughts and questions are in the thread. I tried to experience the game in in-the-moment mode as I caught up, hopefully without making an obnoxious number of posts during my read-through. I'm leaning town on both of them.

———✹

Is it outside the realm of possibility that Scum, knowing Skullduggery was critical of me and had her vote on me, would kill her to then later frame me? I want to know if you too think that might be a possibilty, and how that may relate to some of the comments you've read in this game thus far.

It's possible. But, like Bert mentioned, it could also be a try at a "wtf?" low-info, unlikely to be protected, kill. Especially if Skull had scum someplace other than her scumpile.

[fferyllt]

Ffery post what page you're at in your next post

This page. I went through the posts made after I replaced in to be sure I hadn't missed something.

[fferyllt]

Okay.

Here's my big issue-

You were there in Xeno. How did people treat me after I made myself conftown D1?

Badly. Most were pissed at you for outing as IC so early. I was dead after day 1 but from my reading along as the game progressed people felt like you didn't use your conftown status very well, and didn't do much to progress the game.

Are you contrasting that to the reaction to the mason claim?

[fferyllt]

Yeah.

Why weren't you?

Do you remember my reaction in the Xenogears game? I remember it quite well.

Rather, wouldn't that have scared me off of doing said thing?

Your game has changed a lot since then. Speaking of which, this seems to be a game where you don't have a townbloc you trust.

[fferyllt]

What are you thinking about the reactions, notsci? The circumstances aren't exactly parallel for a number of reasons. Do you feel like the differences make sense given the gamestate? A premature mason claim generates wifom for obvious reasons. A premature IC reveal comes with zero wifom.

[fferyllt]

Ffery, you've made the effort to answer my questions for the enlightenment of all. What do you think of notscience refusing to answer any of my questions, especially considering he's been fighting for my mislynch since early in the game? Also, I'd really like to know what you think of the votes on me, whether their reasons are sound, those who view me as Town, and what you think yourself. Lastly, how do you feel when someone outright refuses to answer your questions?

You have an assumption that town players should want to cooperate with your stylized questioning process. How valid do you feel that assumption is proving to be? I don't know if you have more than the one completed game doing this, but the reviews were mixed

during

the Space game.

[fferyllt]

My assumption is that players should want to answer and ask the questions. The style's just the style. Considering one of the elements of Mafia is asking question, my assumption is valid. I cannot speak of ongoing games. I can, however, say that it's been found to be very effective, helpful, and nothing but positive, because it generates content and discussion, so long as the information gathered is used. When people ask me questions, I don't deliberately ignore them. I expect the same in return. What are your thoughts on that?

I think you're glossing over a lot of negative feedback, and maybe forgetting how hard you fished for positive feedback after that game ended.

How willing people are to entertain your questions boils down to how relevant they think your questions are.

You haven't explained what you meant by the part I bolded.

[fferyllt]

Yeah.

Why weren't you?

Do you remember my reaction in the Xenogears game? I remember it quite well.

No.. Remind me?

It was pretty much "done is done. let's move on.":

I'd ask what the motivation for that was, but hell if it even matters.

Rather, wouldn't that have scared me off of doing said thing?

Your game has changed a lot since then. Speaking of which, this seems to be a game where you don't have a townbloc you trust.

Nope. Re: My reads list a few pages ago, I pretty much trust Varsoon and Bert fully. Tossup for most others.

I think trust is the right word. In my readthrough I didn't notice you pushing your townreads to pick a direction and lead.

[fferyllt]

Meaning, I think you're stronger as Town than Scum. I'm stronger as Scum than Town.

I believe it was Squirrel Girl who advised I ignore negative feedback on the basis that not everyone can be pleased, and that it's not my job to please or appease everyone. Back to my Beam questions, I believe they're valid, and I believe that valid questions deserve to be answered. Imagine if I told you your questions weren't valid, thus I didn't care to answer them. Think about that, please, before talking to me about the validity of game-related questions.

Even past Mini 1516, I am assured my signature gameplay is nothing but helpful. Perhaps the issue lies with fellow Townies being willing to contribute?

There's how I would react - thinking that my questions are useful, and then there's how others react - who may or may not think my questions are useful.

I remember penguin alien saying that the only reason she indulged your line of questioning on day 2 was based on my asking people to meet you halfway.

And we know how that turned out. :/

I don't really want to make this game a huge revisit of the Space game. Suffice it to say I won't run interference for you again.

Ffery, I'm having difficulty sorting you out.

I've been in the game thread for less than 12 hours. Given your track record, if you claimed to have a read on me I'd take it as a scum claim.

Kagami, Natirasha, and Toogeloo have opined that I am Town to varying degrees.

What are your opinions of Natirasha and Toogeloo? I've gathered you feel strongly that Kagami is town. I thought Nati is in your scumpile?

Notscience is sure I'm Scum, and Varsoon has changed from viewing me as Town to viewing me as Scum.

And you're scumreading notsci. Varsoon as well?

Everything I bring up is meant to be reference material. So, I want to know what your current read on me is, please.

Do you see how the way you've set up this question would play into my hands if I were scum?

I'm leaning town.

[fferyllt]

@Ffery: Basically, I gave Eddie a good opportunity to wagon me and a good time to do so. He didn't. Makes me read him as a bit more town than not.

@Eddie: Amen to that. Site's always down when I want to really play.

What's your position on the Sakura replace-out?

[fferyllt]

It's a meta read mostly, I replaced into his town slot in a newbie game, and I played with him in a mini normal game where we were both town. And he replaced out of a scum slot in NY 167. Oh also replaced out of a factional slot in Majiffy's bastard Oz game, too. It's hard to say what his scum game might have looked like, but he was polite, made excuses and wasn't very involved in either of the non-town games. He seems proud of his scum game but hasn't put it on the line at MS. In the Space postgame (and I think during the game as well but I can't be arsed to go back and look) he mentioned a few times about how logical he is as scum, and how logical play looks scummy to him as a result. Or something like that.

As town, he's just...bizarre. He indicated that he won't gambit again anytime soon after the Space game.

I want to understand how he's reading the gambiters in this game.

[fferyllt]

Ffery, who do you think we should wagon?

What's your opinion on the D1 wagon- Doublebus, one on one off, or both off?

I want to say 1 on 1 off, but I could be townreading someone on the main wagon who isn't.

Anyone trying to wagon Kaga has to tell me why conftowning a slot is something scum-Kaga would do btw

I feel like I must have missed something.

I'm just about done for the night.

Happy New Year!

[fferyllt]

The caled wagon really looks town to me.

Kaga said that before Sakura replaced out? I didn't catch that.

[fferyllt]

Oh god all the walls.

I was.

VOTE: Venmar

I need fferyllt/Bert to come in here and kick my ass into gear again.

I'm not following your reasoning on this vote.

[fferyllt]

That would explain it!

[fferyllt]

The last two pages make me feel better about you, Bert. I feel like you've been mostly excuses and give me a couple weeks since I replaced in, and I didn't remember that much about your play from my readthrough, which was kinda troubling in its own way.

I think this is the second game I've played with Venmar. The first was Xenogears, where he fake-claimed PGO day 1 and then crumbed the hell out of his cop results on day 2. I didn't meta him for that game because his in-thread play was crazy enough to warrant a day or two of leeway. And then I died night 1.

First game with Kagami.

I'll do some meta research today.

[fferyllt]

You shouldn't say that, because I haven't even voted anyone and still don't know who's scum? That's pretty bad that I'm not latched onto anyone

Gut scum is still Toog and all this claiming extravaganza makes my reads meaningless

You're processing the game.

[fferyllt]

Ffery would you agree (assuming venscum) that his partner is wake/toog

Because he says that they're either both town or both scum?

I'm not sure. I don't have the game embedded in my forebrain enough to do associations yet. Venmar was against the caled lynch. Wake was against the caled lynch. Toog said he thought Kagami and caled were scumbuddies. That would suggest two very different theories on how scum would position on the caled wagon.

[fferyllt]

If Venmar had flipped scum D1 in the same manner that Caled was lynched, then I'd be tempted to say he wasn't bussed.

But it's Caled, lynchbait. I'm surprised the wagon built up that fast. Otherwise, if Venmar had flipped scum D1, I'd be defending Kagami who wagoned Venmar. That's not the case though.

I'm not sure I'm following the context. Is this about the caled wagon? You think both scum were on it?

[fferyllt]

cos her scumgame's not too shabby

There's no such thing as town enough. I'm used to it, but it still annoys me.

[fferyllt]

I like Toog.

Notsci, Nati you have Toog is town?

[fferyllt]

That sounds bad.

[fferyllt]

Why is he in Siberia?

[fferyllt]

I haven't started that dive yet.

Was catching up with new posts, had dinner and now I'm back to work on meta dives.

Have you played with her before?

[fferyllt]

I don't really know what to think of him.

I don't like the fakeclaim thing

, but I'm quickly finding that that's something of a town tell. Or Wake caught him red handed. One of the two. Otherwise Toog's been something of a nonpresence.

Did you feel a sense of irony when you wrote this?

[fferyllt]

You were in Newbie 1448. I was peripherally watching that game because Cabd replaced in and day 1 was nightmarishly hilarious. It was closer than I expected.

[fferyllt]

Was that your first game at MS? Had you played before elsewhere?

[fferyllt]

Oh god bert Wisdom used his own Amished tell in Newbie 1430 to throw suspicion on Kagami in that game.

[fferyllt]

Only on a private forum. Before that I had played in Newbie 1450. Decided to replace into 1448 after I died night 1.

Since then I've finished Micro 275, and am in several ongoing games.

I was wondering because you seemed to have some MS mafia lingo down already in that game.

[fferyllt]

Solid game. You basically did have Wisdom figured out.

[fferyllt]

She's been nommed for rising star.

I saw!

[fferyllt]

The attention to detail in 1450. Statistical analysis of another player's winrate as town and as scum.

This makes me think of the quantitative research she did on Venmar's scum and town games.

I don't think I've ever done an interactive meta dive before. I'm taking advantage of your being in thread to bounce things off as I go along.

[fferyllt]

Micro 275, more statistical analysis this time of role distribution probability.

That was an interesting fake claim and a lot of strategic thinking in the Weird Idea game.

Have you played the Greater/Greatest/Cracking Idea type games on the other forum?

[fferyllt]

I don't remember games by thread number. I mostly don't remember them by game number either unless they didn't have a catchy title. I have over 50 completed games. I need to catch my wiki pages up.

[fferyllt]

So do you read games beginning to end? Do you data mine them? How do you use your database for player/game analysis?

[fferyllt]

I've done data mining and text analytics IRL. I don't apply tools to game data, but when I have time, the research techniques in a non-automated fashion sometimes lead to interesting insights. I'd have to cut way back on the number of games I play simultaneously to put consistent effort into that kind of analysis.

[fferyllt]

text analytics is kinda sorta whatnot.

[fferyllt]

Ok, so you have 3 completed games at MS, and all three are town games. So, my challenge is to develop a town-Kagami model from those games and then see how well the model predicts your play in this game.

[fferyllt]

why the fuck are you guys talking about how great kagami is? she isn't.

@ffery about her quant search on me, all she did was look at my wiki and pull up random games, then make up bs about voting

this town is aids

Yeah, the rigor of the analysis on you has not escaped my notice. I'm working on shit. I'll post more later.

[fferyllt]

Some things that are different in Kagami's play this game

- the sheer quantity of posts. Considerably more than double the output of her other games. Post quantity is usually a function of the overall activity in a game, which is affected by the number of players, so I'm not sure this is relevant. It's also affected by how many players who play in conversational mode are in the game.

- The Venmar analysis. I feel like this analysis is different from the work she did in the earlier games because it is focused on game comparisons and attempts to quantify stuff that is more of a quality/content issue. She notes herself that the scum games she's using for comparison purposes are unusual. So, knowing that the analysis has apples to oranges issues that are outside of his alignment I'm a little surprised she used this as an actual reason to suspect Venmar. On the other hand...effort, which I take to be a town tell in general. But, with her meta-awareness and the level of effort that goes into her town games, she'll have to duplicate this as scum.

- The post that Toog has pointed out looks like insider knowledge. Given the amount of research she obviously does before and during games, I don't think this is necessarily insider knowledge based. It could be, but to me it has more of the feel of her post in the Greatest Idea micro where she calculated the probabilities of various alignments being present in the game, though it's way less grounded in data.

And that's a conclusion from my ISO and meta. She's playing a less grounded, less assertive, and less overtly analytical game than the previous ones.

So what's different about this game from the other three? It's larger. It's a closed set-up. It's populated with a few players who have a large helping of chaos in their styles (looking at you Varsoon and Nati).

I haven't come away from this thinking oh hell yeah Kagami's town.

p-edit there's been a fuckton of posts while I was writing this up. Will read up after I get this post to go through.

[fferyllt]

venmar, full claim pls?

Why are you pushing for a full claim here?

[fferyllt]

I can't quite make myself believe Varsoon's claim, but I don't feel good about lynching him.

I'm combing through Kagami's posts one more time, and toog's because his posts about Kagami have stuck with me.

[fferyllt]

ugh.

[fferyllt]

Vote: Kagami

Die, scum, die.

Pretty bold play there. You're seriously claiming un-roleblocked un-killed cop with a vanilla NK in this setup?

So wait, you are saying that I should have been blocked or killed, but are perfectly willing to wave your hand at the claimed Tracker and protection?

Rereading this gave me fucking chills. Wake pulled precisely this gambit on me in another game, and he thought that my reaction was off in every conceivable way. There wasn't a track result to counter him, though, and he didn't admit it was a fake guilty until twilight after I'd been hammered.

Toog, I think the burden is very much on you to show that a player whose strength is logic, probabilities and deep analysis would react the way that you personally think they should.

[fferyllt]

I agree with you on Varsoon, ffery, but its that or NL at this point.

And my vote will be L-1 I think. I'll vote shortly. I'm feeling Entish today.

The one time I accidentally let a nolynch happen, the player I would have hammered was scum.

Hi notsci.

[fferyllt]

Who are you talking to/about Wake?

[fferyllt]

Who are you talking to/about Wake?

Those who seem to be ignoring my posts. I've made quite a few posts, yet only some provided feedback.

Just now it seems my last 3 posts were ignored by you, Kagami, and Natirasha, though Nat's usually like that with people, imo.

I'm trying to keep interactions with you pretty low key because I feel like they could get quite volatile in a hurry, at least from my side.

But that's not why I didn't reply to the last 3 posts you made. I thought those posts were to Kagami, and I didn't want to go tramping through your line of questioning of her.

[fferyllt]

Who are you talking to/about Wake?

Those who seem to be ignoring my posts. I've made quite a few posts, yet only some provided feedback.

Just now it seems my last 3 posts were ignored by you, Kagami, and Natirasha, though Nat's usually like that with people, imo.

I'm trying to keep interactions with you pretty low key because I feel like they could get quite volatile in a hurry, at least from my side.

But that's not why I didn't reply to the last 3 posts you made. I thought those posts were to Kagami, and I didn't want to go tramping through your line of questioning of her.

Your anger's understandable.

It was partially meant for Kagami, but also meant for other living players to give feedback on.

You may not feel this way about your question, but to me that's actually a line of questioning where it would be good to get her thoughts down in a post uninfluenced by what other players are thinking right now.
in ti

I'd like to see you... do something. Maybe challenge my line of reason, or argue both sides of someone's position, etc.

You want me to play the game the way you think it should be played. I haven't really hit my stride yet. Assuming I'm alive tomorrow, then I'll be more active, but I'll play my way.

What did you think about the crappy attempts at getting me lynched thus far?

I think some of them, particularly votes on you today, are pretty crappy.

Sakura's replace out and the fact she's been banned from games for a while... because of excessive replacing-out and using as a trust tell?

You've missed where I've said that I don't think her replace-out was the huge towntell that some players have called it?

The whole issue with notscience and Natirasha pretending to Masons, lying about communications, then denying their status, and then wanting everyone to believe they were both Townies just happening to go along with a ridiculous gambit?

I think you vastly oversimplify how that played out. They were both scumreading each other, and it looked to me like it was the persuasion of other players that caused them to consider the possibility the other was town.

What do you make of notscience's repeated attempts to lynch me?

I think they are a bad idea, but I can see that it's mostly a personality/playstyle conflict and that you've contributed considerably to it with the way you phrase your questions such that there's a right answer - yours. Sort of like these questions you're asking me "crappy attempts" "just happening to go along"

Thoughts on Bert and Eddie and toogeloo?

Bert posts just barely enough content-ful posts to keep me from seeing Open-534-Bert here. notsci's read is pretty key, because he was scum with Bert in that game.

I for one don't trust Varsoon's JoAT claim, especially since he's said he didn't use a single shot last night.

I highly doubt the claim is true. That's separate from Varsoon's alignment. In a perfect world I'd leave it for tomorrow. As I've indicated, I'm going to put down a compromise vote on him. Probably in my next post.

[fferyllt]

Not voting a townread

You think nolynch is better?

[fferyllt]

JoaTs don't get BP.

You claiming a failed shot on Varsoon?

If this is true, I learned something new today.

[fferyllt]

Varsoon (4): Bert,

Wake88,

Venmar,

Natirasha

Reasons I'm not voting Varsoon

These

He gives me townfeels

Pedit-

Yup

How did I miss that you're still thinking Nati is scum?

[fferyllt]

VOTE: Varsoon

[fferyllt]

Notsci, I watched that open game drag on and you never came up as a credible lynch again. I was in the game for only a couple days and I had a huge impact on town's loss. If I'd realized the time I would have hammered you even though I thought you were town for your ridiculous death tunnel on my slot.

At least you're making a conscious decision. I respect that.

[fferyllt]

My kagami read is in flux. Rereading the start of day 2 makes toog's basis for scumreading her really shaky. And his scumread did influence me because I was finding other stuff where I agreed with him.

I'd vote her as a compromise but it wouldn't make me any happier than voting Varsoon does.

p-edit. welp.

I'm going to post this anyway so it's in tomorrow's mix.

[fferyllt]

Why did you choose me to track?

[fferyllt]

Toog has magically reversed his opinion on me. Why do you think this is? He wasn't blocked last night and investigated me. Vanilla toogeloo would not have had this change of heart, and scum toogeloo would almost certainly be coming after me as today's lynch. Even the fact that you aren't seriously pushing me suggests that you know this to be true.

This also means toog was blocked on N1. This is remarkably consistent with RB-wake. With all the claims bouncing around, blocking toog is perfect; wake would call him on going nowhere (which also ensures that the track is accurate) and hopefully lines up a lynch for the fake-claim. Sadly for wake, this fell apart since none of the town took to the toog lynch.

Not everything you deduce or intuit about a player's motivations for in-thread actions needs to be posted out loud. Part of a town player's job is to protect the PRs from scum with silence and with misdirection.

[fferyllt]

I tracked Fferyllt because I was curious, and I find her to be more skilled at being Scum and blending in than some others here.

There are a couple decent scum games in my meta, but the pretty much best that can be said about my scum game is "usually not totally incompetent".

I was surprised to be your target given how strong some of your scum reads seem to be, but it sounds like maybe paranoia played into your choice.

What I do know is that there was a reason Skullduggery and Venmar were killed. Both suspected me, and I think Skull wanted me dead. Knowing this, and that now both are dead, I anticipated that at least one of the Scum would try and use this to lynch me. Notscience is the main one to do this. He is who I suspect the most at this point.

Venmar was more likely killed because he highlighted himself with that "OK" when you asked for protection, though Kagami's pointing that up may have helped. Dunno about Skullduggery. I haven't played with her much, but I think she's a pretty competent player. IIRC she also was being townread pretty strongly.

[fferyllt]

I tend to imagine that the scumteam can only be better informed than I, and that they aren't so stupid that they wouldn't figure obvious things like that out.

Never overestimate a scum team.

[fferyllt]

I guess what I'm trying to say is don't assume that what suddenly appears obvious to you will seem equally obvious to an outsider, especially someone with a different alignment. We all tend to focus on how players interact with us individually, and how their reads change on us. Not to the exclusion of other players, but things tend to jump out much more vividly when we're the focus.

[fferyllt]

I'm still catching up on today's posts. I had a pretty solid town read on notsci and Nati yesterday and wasn't as sure about bert. I want to reread bert. I felt like his push to make sure a mislynch didn't happen on day 2 looked town-minded.

[fferyllt]

I guess what I'm trying to say is don't assume that what suddenly appears obvious to you will seem equally obvious to an outsider, especially someone with a different alignment. We all tend to focus on how players interact with us individually, and how their reads change on us. Not to the exclusion of other players, but things tend to jump out much more vividly when we're the focus.

I see your point, but I would counter by saying that transparency in this respect makes it clear to others where your frame of reference lies. Being townread accurately is very valuable. 1-shot cop + IC is better than a cop.

And if it became game relevant, the data was there. If you weren't being run-up the reveal could wait. Or for that matter, a wagon started on you could have provided some data that didn't require your lynch and flip to be useful.

It's a fine line, figuring out what needs to be made overt right away.

[fferyllt]

I need to wrap my head back around this game. I'll try not to wall in the process.

[fferyllt]

Fferyllt is sort of like Bert, but bigger and more experienced; I'm not sure how many years she has in Mafia; I know I'm just about at 6.

Are you talking in general terms? Specific to this game?

[fferyllt]

Like I anticipated, Scum-notscience reacts very aggresively in response to my vote. Overreaction, and he is intent to see me lynched after killing those two to frame me. He is the only one trying to do that. I'll be back later once I'm not so heavily restrained with work.

Where is the sweet spot? Where it's not an overreaction, not an underreaction?

And do you say it because you know notsci's variation in play or because he's not hitting your generic "what a town player does in situation X"?

[fferyllt]

Nati, bullheaded does not make anyone town.

As Toogeloo says, do you really want to go down this road for yourself?

And, yes, certain traits can be town or scumtells for certain individuals.

Last I looked he didn't have any completed scum games at MS. There are some bits of early scum play in the Oz game and in NY 167, but he replaced out of both games without ever looking like he'd settled in to the game. Is that the basis for this relative tell?

[fferyllt]

Yeah. I still want answers though regardless of alignment. As much for this game as for future ones. He had me down as severely underreacting in the Space game, and he has notsci as overreacting. If he's town, he's getting that idea from *something*. If he's scum, then I'd still like more justification because it'll help in sorting that kind of allegation in the future. I doubt the basis has anything to do with knowledge of notsci's playstyle.

[fferyllt]

Like I anticipated, Scum-notscience reacts very aggresively in response to my vote. Overreaction, and he is intent to see me lynched after killing those two to frame me.

You've played with notscience before. How is "aggression and overreaction" as compared to the average player a scumtell?

Ok, so he does have a baseline.

[fferyllt]

Meh. I'm going to keep digging through the last few pages anyway.

[fferyllt]

Town: notsci, toog, kagami, bert
Not sure: Wake, EddieFenix, Nati

Nati's mostly on the basis of toog. I think I'd be at Town otherwise. I'm trying to remember if I've seen a town game where he was both detached and was operating mostly on town reads.

I think I'd be leaning scum on Eddie if it weren't for an offsite game I played with him. I was the cop and investigated him on night 1, and I swear if I hadn't had a cop inno on him I would have been leaning scum. His town play seems very cards close to vest, or maybe it's just detached looking and infrequent posting.

[fferyllt]

I've given Eddie a pass because he replaced Sakura. Otherwise, yeah he'd look scummy.

Do you have a recent reads list down?

[fferyllt]

ffery you do realize bert and i aren't going to let you pull 1436 on us again right

I would hope not.

My problem right now is overcommitment. I'm in 12 games atm, including 3 I replaced into. Figuring out how to slice my time and brain cells over the holidays sucked and I'm still carrying a huge load of ongoing games.

[fferyllt]

must be nice having so many ongoing

aaaah...yeah. forgot about that.

I'd pay good money for a do not disturb sign about now.

[fferyllt]

Nati, your thoughts about the non-Wake players?

[fferyllt]

Fferyllt - leaning scum, today's play has been rather sketch - lack of committing on any type of read on me and planting doubt about me, and then after notscience proclaiming he'd have problems with you if you read me as not-town, you proceed to place me in a townpile

You're assuming that I didn't do a review after notsci called me out. I'm still pretty sketchy about some of the stuff prior to my replace-in, and I didn't remember all the reasons to have you as town at the start of day 3. My off the top of the head recollection, though, was "not much paranoia about me", and that's the main reason I wanted to reread your posts before making it a definitive townpile.

Thanks to BRO's game, how your paranoia comes off is going to be one of the things I roll around in my head anytime we play for a while.

[fferyllt]

I remember that. If it weren't my slot now, I'd be defending whoever replaced GiF because I think that was more likely to come from disengaged town than scum who had the night phase to get a review from teammates even if they didn't read the game.

[fferyllt]

Nati, your thoughts about the non-Wake players?

Ns is town enough.

Initially you said he was scum because he went along with your mason gambit. What changed your mind?

Toogeloo I have no idea--maybe town maybe not, need to see Wake's flip first.

If Wake is scum, what does that say about Toogeloo? If Wake is town?

You don't have the initiative I feel you usually do.

Bad timing for my opportunity to get back into this game.

Bert is down to earth but I need to go iso him. I forget if he went town telling earlier.

plz tell me what you find.

EddieFenix replaced Sakura which is really annoying.

He doesn't get an indefinite free ride for replacing Sakura.

Kagami is playing with the power roles like I do when scum and was a wagon both days.

I've thought about that as well, but right now I'm thinking it comes from a game-solving place. We'll see. It reminds me a little of ABR's scum play case study from a couple months ago. I've seen you kinda do similarly as town or at least push kinda early for mass claim.

[fferyllt]

You two can both back off of Bert or we're going to fight

I have. :/

[fferyllt]

Toog, what are your thoughts about nolynch?

[fferyllt]

Hey ffery you should vote for nl

I erally hate toog's entrance into today but atm the only person I have a set-in-stone read on is bert

I'm getting some useful stuff out of the discussion whether to nolynch and I don't want to end that just yet.

[fferyllt]

Bert, assuming wagons constitutes 3 or more, there were only two.

Notice anyone riding the tail of all those wagons? Nati

He went from first on the caled wagon (bussing for towncred, reminds me of GIF and me in Rob's mini normal), to riding the tail of the big wagons D2. Yes he temporarily was on me D2. But look where he is when the wagons sprung- within the last few votes of each.

Now look at Kagami's death- What did it serve?

For one, it's kinda low info (his interactions aren't really helping any).

However, lets look at the votes that have amassed on him- Hm, that's strange. Look who

consistently

sat their vote on Kagami! That'd be Toog.

So, by killing Kagami, he intends to then bus his buddy Nati (in similar manner to how Nati bussed Caled) and then use Nati's mason claim with me to secure the lylo ML on me.

e z

Eddie is probably town becoz trust tell from sakura etc etc

ffery is a gutread but if one of toog/nati is town she's the last scum

Toog's attack on Nati today, though. Why even go there today if they're scum together?

[fferyllt]

Were you watching Pinnipedum at all, Bert?

Not exactly my best scum game ever. :/

[fferyllt]

i wanna lynch ffery tbh, whadoya think of her

When are you going to stop being terrible at reading me?

[fferyllt]

heh.

I didn't post my first reaction. I feel pretty good about bert being town. Do you disagree?

[fferyllt]

I have no idea about statistics. The issue is more about confirmed town/strong town reads being around at MYLO and probably being dead after nolynch and a night kill. If there are no confirmed town/universal reads then pushing to LYLO makes sense.

So that's what it comes down to - whether the night kill will provide enough information to narrow things down further the next game day. If the player scum will kill is obvious, then pushing MYLO to LYLO doesn't help much.

[fferyllt]

Ugh.

There's stuff I really don't think is a good idea to talk about it today especially if we nolynch.

[fferyllt]

Everybody pretty much agreed I was probably scum. I was the scum that gets bussed for towncred in that game. I have no idea why I wasn't lynched. I thought the scum team would win anyway but not on night 3.

[fferyllt]

That's....a bit out of character for you...

You show a shocking lack of knowledge about how I approach scum roles, given you were scum with me in the Mismatched micro.

[fferyllt]

Well now that you mention it, I do recall Nacho bussing you in a Mini a while back. I didn't bus you in Mismatched.

unvote

No you didn't. But my focus that game was getting you to lylo and a win. Making it to lylo myself (and surviving lylo) was a secondary goal I was more than willing to relinquish. Same was true of the newbie game, but I wound up having to carry that one.

[fferyllt]

I vaguely remember that, or something like that. We didn't win?

[fferyllt]

I remember that. If it weren't my slot now, I'd be defending whoever replaced GiF because I think that was more likely to come from disengaged town than scum who had the night phase to get a review from teammates even if they didn't read the game.

This post?

[fferyllt]

Playing with you is like listening to a continuous loop. :/

[fferyllt]

I have never been so insulted in my life.

[fferyllt]

Notice how ffery has not sorted Nat out and named him as town/scum, and they hydra together.

Don't lie about my stances bert. I was unsure about Nati yesterday mostly on the basis of toog. I find it really difficult to read him when he's meh about a game.

My nati read solidified on the basis of today. I'm not going to say what that read is (or if any other reads have changed) while nolynch is even close to on the table. If consensus is to go for a lynch, then it's time to talk about reads, otherwise we're just giving scum data for picking the best night kill to set up lylo.

[fferyllt]

I'm going for a lynch today. No one is posturing for a NL anymore.

I think Nati is.

If we're going for a lynch then it's time for mass claim.

[fferyllt]

I think Eddie said he didn't support NL.

[fferyllt]

My Nati read just did a summersault.

Rethinking.

[fferyllt]

Oh, and the thing I was waiting for was myko to call Red Wine so I could talk about that here, ffery. I'm trying to navigate whether your mild apathy here is a biproduct of a manufactured gamestate(as it was in RW) or if it's scum.

My apathy has been global at times over the last month or so. I shake it off here and there, now and then. Red Wine, though, that game was mind-numbing.

You did nothing in Red Wine that was as game-shaking as the mason claim and retraction. That's really the only thing in this game that makes me think you're town, if I'm factoring in the Red Wine game properly. I'm still processing that.

[fferyllt]

Is my game here really that bad? That sucks.

I dunno. I see parallels, but you've made more of an impact in this game in terms of doing stuff that matters to the game state. I came in at the end of day 2. Day 3 was cut way short. My read is probably colored by our having very little interaction.

[fferyllt]

What about red wine?

pedit oh hi ffery, who do you think is scum

Nati was scum in Red Wine. It ended a couple hours ago.

Let me try to figure Nati out. Given the game state a lot hinges on whether I wind up thinking he's town.

[fferyllt]

I dunno. I see parallels, but you've made more of an impact in this game in terms of doing stuff that matters to the game state. I came in at the end of day 2. Day 3 was cut way short. My read is probably colored by our having very little interaction.

The big thing that I think colored a lot of my play in Red Wine was that I absolutely hate hate hated the gamestate there. I thought I was going to lose from night two on--that is part of what inspired the huge apathy there. Neither Guyett or I wanted to play, and the town didn't really know where to go because both scumkills didn't really draw parallels because of the circumstances of their death.

I accept I've been pretty quiet in this game, but, really, I've outlined my thoughts as appropriate.

Then nobody liked the game state. Every time I opened game thread I felt like it was killing brain cells.

How does this game make you feel?

[fferyllt]

I think that's what screwed me up in the Red Wine game. :/

[fferyllt]

This isn't really helping somehow.

You did a phenomenal job in Red Wine of showing up in the thread at the right times and saying stuff I thought came from a town mindset, just often enough to keep a scum read from setting.

[fferyllt]

Fuck it. My gut is saying town. :/

I'm going to drink good beer and listen to loud music and see what I think in the morning.

[fferyllt]

I'm time-slicing tonight but may let this game slide to tomorrow since the deadline isn't looming. May have time for one or two iso reviews.

[fferyllt]

Also, Bert! Food tell! Greek marinade for lamb!

[fferyllt]

Ffery I need to know where you're at soon please

Nati, you're going to have to trust me on this, unless you care to read any of the things I talked about recently.

If we're going to lynch at MYLO then we need to mass claim today.

notsci, bert's ISO has lots and lots of flickers of the kind of sincerity I associate with his town game. I went back and read our first newbie game earlier today because that's my baseline on what bert's paranoia as town looks like. He always brings up Newbie 1436 when we play and takes any sign of waffle or fencesitting as a scum tell from me, which, when it doesn't pertain to the games we're currently playing is pretty amusing, because there are very few games where my reads waffled and flip-flopped to the extent they did in Newbie 1415. So, anyway. I have Bert as town.

Toog/Nati are where I think scum lie. Maybe Eddie, but although I feel pretty competent to read Sakura, her replace-out behaviors and other so-called towntells worry me because I think they're exploitable and I think she'll eventually exploit them. Probably not this game. But, it's almost certainly going to happen in a game soon. Preferably not a game I'm playing. :/

Walls are incoming, with a focus on Toog and Nati. Failing so hard at Red Wine's MYLO has cratered my confidence in some ways, but I think all the day 1 scum replacements in that game wound up throwing my reads off. If I'd discounted day 1 for the replacements, I would probably have lynched scum on the final day.

[fferyllt]

Is it going to come down to me vs ffery?

Who should it come down to?

[fferyllt]

Fuck it. My gut is saying town. :/

I'm going to drink good beer and listen to loud music and see what I think in the morning.

Do you still feel this way about Nat after a good beer

I don't remember what I thought after the good beers. :/

You were in Syr's Dixon Hill game. What other scum games have you played with Nati?

[fferyllt]

how was that gambit townie again? when did you decide you would attack notscience D2? You two seemed buddy-buddy D1.

It's supposed to poach on the scum's want to have ez townpoints.

Forces them to not kill me or something.

I also like fakeclaiming mason. This is not the first time I've done it(w/SSK in Lucid Dreamers).

Were you town in that game?

[fferyllt]

I've always been scummier than you. You also are much more capable in all aspects of the game!

Quick, ffery, what's the quote I always use to describe my towngame?

The bit about being a bad town player who pretends to be good? Or something else?

[fferyllt]

This isn't apathy. But things are currently stalled waiting for Toog to claim.

[fferyllt]

But, ffery only agreed to start talking about reads because it appeared we aren't NLing.

The only pro of lynching today is that Scum can't coordinate a quickhammer with just one astray vote.

Either way, all town has to be on a scum-wagon if scum aren't joining in, for the wagon to succeed. There's a reason it's hard to win when it's even numbers like in that past Scumhunter's speed game where it was 3 vs. 5, then 2 vs. 4?

That's absolutely right. And if we're going to switch back to nolynch then mass-claim needs to shut down before it starts, too.

[fferyllt]

Cool.

Popcorn massclaim time?

I nom king scumfuck (toog) as tribute

here.

[fferyllt]

I love that hydra name.

[fferyllt]

I'm in a zone right now and looking through ISOs. Just want to note that I think Kagami read Toog as town, and killing him/her frames Toog in a way, right?

How so?

[fferyllt]

I don't understand what you mean by "frames" then. I think of that as when scum kill a player who suspects another townie to make it look like the suspected townie maybe made the kill. Her kill seems like the opposite of a toog frame?

[fferyllt]

Ugh.

Paranoia rising.

[fferyllt]

I'm not sure what you mean by "this".

[fferyllt]

Like I anticipated, Scum-notscience reacts very aggresively in response to my vote.

Overreaction, and he is intent to see me lynched after killing those two to frame me

. He is the only one trying to do that. I'll be back later once I'm not so heavily restrained with work.

Is it something in the water?

[fferyllt]

This is what I was trying to remember when Bert posted earlier. It's like an inverse function.

[fferyllt]

I'm in a zone right now and looking through ISOs. Just want to note that I think Kagami read Toog as town, and killing him/her frames Toog in a way, right?

You were kind of on a right train of thought here.

Venmar is reading me as town heavily Day 2. Venmar dies Night 2. Kagami is reading me as town Day 3. Kagami dies Night 3.

So my logical play is to kill off all the people who are reading me as town, right?

Funny, it's not like venmar softed up the place with doc.

And it's not like you were scumreading Kaga devoutly for the first few days and realized your chances of mislynching her were slim-none.

Ffery, you're someone adept at finding PRs, no? Yet his recent post raised your paranoia rather than his entrance into today?.... Unless of course, you knew his intentions beforehand. But hey.

He's been implying PR since day 2. Maybe day 1. The thing that weirds me out is that he's still implying it rather than claiming.

[fferyllt]

Logical? Not really. The post I quoted came back to mind because Bert brought up the framed idea and I remembered Wake yammering on about being framed by the night 1 and 2 kills. He asked a question about being framed several times in his formatted questions lists, including the list he posted for me.

I don't think this thread of thought is taking me anywhere useful. :/

[fferyllt]

VT here.

[fferyllt]

Vote: Natirasha

His gambit on Day 1 likely was to just a "Why would scum..." type thing to buy him life in game. He was active in the beginning to feed his gambit, but not really overly active. Caled has been universally called bus credit, and Nati pushed this lynch probably to feed it.

However, Day 2 he actively lurked doing very little in terms of content, trying to distance himself from notsci. When Kagami looked like she was going to be lynched he jumped aboard while calling her town "on a hunch" in the exact same post. When the Kagami lynch fell apart, he lent himself to the Varsoon wagon at the opportune time to make it the only viable wagon to lynch to avoid a no lynch.

What changed your mind about Nati's mason gambit?

[fferyllt]

There is a sort of truth in bourbon.

I need to sort toog and nati And I need to keep in mind that red wine was only a game.

[fferyllt]

I approach mafia from a vig perspective, no matter what my actual role. It's how I think about the game - who would I kill and from there who all the other potential PRs should focus on.

This game's night actions don't fit anything like my models. that suggests a pretty unorthodox approach to the game.

[fferyllt]

Then you've missed something fundamental about my game.

Though I think playing at MS has softened that edge.

[fferyllt]

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmes ... ge=81#1611

On June 16 2013 16:34 fferyllt wrote:

Also, I'll go ahead and post something I wrote up thinking I might post it on night 2. I wanted to give town - especially any remaining blue roles - some advice on how to narrow down the lynch and night action options. It's not the only way to think about the game, but it's my own approach. Especially on day/night 1 I ask myself who I would protect, who I would block, who I would view, and who I woud vig. And I ask myself who I would kill/block if I were scum. Then I see what actually happens at daybreak. It helps me gauge how the blues and the scum team are seeing the game, and it's practice for when I roll a role with a night action.

Anyway, here's the screed I thought about posting. I decided not to post it mostly because I thought I was probably the only living blue.

--------------------------------------

There’s a pretty good chance I won’t be alive tomorrow, so I want give the blue roles some general advice, though you should of course talk to the coaches as well on how to play blue roles well.

What I have to say is probably not optimal play for your particular role at the beginning of a game unless you have an excellent scumdar. But now that we have some card flips and some ideas on who might be scum this kind of strategy can be more helpful.

Think like a vig. No matter what your role, even vanilla town, think like a vig. If you had one bullet, how would you use it?

Now, think about how you can use your abilities to do something similar.

If you are the doc, that guy you would have shot…who most needs protection from that specific person?

If you are the cop, then that’s the person you want to view. If you are wrong, that’s ok, you should have a cleared townie tomorrow who was otherwise at risk of being mislynched.

If you are role blocker, then same thing. Tonight, there is probably one killer left. If you block someone tonight and there is no kill, then there is a good chance you blocked scum. If there is a kill, then the person you blocked is 99% cleared because we probably don’t have 2 killers left after 2 scum dying.

Anyway, think about ways to find scum and if you are wrong then to clear players who otherwise could be mislynches.

[fferyllt]

Despite notsci's strongarm tactics about his Bert read, the main reason I think Bert is town is because I'm alive 2 nights after replacing in.

[fferyllt]

Bert, talk to me about Toog. Because that's where my vote is yelling at me.

[fferyllt]

I think it's ffery-Toog.

:/

If we nolynch today does tomorrow get easier?

[fferyllt]

I feel like this no lynch became the worst of both worlds.

VOTE: No Lynch

[fferyllt]

It's ffery-

toog

.

Fucking vote me Toog!

Prove one of us is scum!

Vote: Natirasha

K now we wait for the scum votes.

THE WHEEL OF FATE IS TURNING
REBEL ONE
FIGHT

This doesn't add up.

[fferyllt]

Eddie how sure are you that Toog is scum?

[fferyllt]

I'm pretty confused now. I came into the day thinking Nati is scum, but his setting up the 1v1 felt like a town move.

[fferyllt]

I'm pretty confused now. I came into the day thinking Nati is scum, but his setting up the 1v1 felt like a town move.

ffery, a majority of your posts come off like this. You are fence sitting and noncommittal.


Nati/Notsci... what is your opinions on a potential Eddie/ffery team?

I'm undecided and I don't want to help set up another town loss like Red Wine.

[fferyllt]

Yeah, I can talk about Eddie in Death's Diner. He made a handful of posts before being replaced out, and was almost universally scumread for them. He was town. Nati's play should have rehabilitated that slot in the eyes of more town players.

I played with Eddie in an offsite game that I replaced into at the end of day 1. I was the cop and I investigated him on night 1. If I didn't have an inno result I would probably have tried to lynch him because his play is really enigmatic to me. He makes short, low-content posts, even in answering direct questions.

[fferyllt]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... er_sort=Go

That's eddie's iso from the Death's Diner game. His inactivity - long periods between posts and then total inactivity for the latter part of day 1 - was a large part of the reason he was scum-read. Also his first reads list caused consternation both for the reads, themselves and for the lack of reasoning.

[fferyllt]

Do you have any meta on Eddie's scum game? Is it similar to his town game?

The last time I meta'd him he didn't have a scum game on site. I think I tried to meta him on the other site and came up empty, too, but I don't remember that game all that well. The game days lasted 2 or 3 calendar days.

[fferyllt]

Eddie- when ffery nks me tonight remember that she's scum.

The fact she even needs to meta you with sakuras replace out is abominable.

Also, I think our tracker targeted the wrong scum twice in the row /golfclap

You're not paying attention. I didn't "meta" him. This was in response to Nati and Toog asking me for meta about Eddie.

[fferyllt]

Meh.

I still think you're scum based on toog from this page

Think again.

[fferyllt]

Why is Nati scum then?

You, Nati and Toog have all three fake claimed/soft claimed shit in this game.

What was your town-reasoning for going along with Nati?

[fferyllt]

Meh.

I still think you're scum based on toog from this page

Toog implies nati town then lists him as most likely Eddie buddy.

I invite you to try and paint me as scum though. Love a good laugh.

I'm not trying to paint you as scum. I hate that phrase. We're down to 5 and this is LYLO unless the scum team size is wonky. I'm trying to eliminate you once and for all from consideration.

[fferyllt]

And don't give me that fucking bullshit about not caring.

I wanted a fucking lynch yesterday when I at least had Bert to talk to. Now I'm stuck with a confirmed town Chronic lurker, a scum, and 2 people I play with often and am usually total shit at reading with 1 scum in between them.

So yeah, I'm kinda done.

You're sure toog is scum?

[fferyllt]

Oh god this game.

I'll post tonight. On my way out the door and have nothing but waffle about Nati to discuss anyway.

[fferyllt]

It doesn't make sense that scum-toog and scum-Nati would cross this way.

[fferyllt]

Eddie, where do you stand? Who is scum?

[fferyllt]

Yeah I know, Eddie & ns are scum.

Is this a joke?

[fferyllt]

I thought you were scumreading me.

[fferyllt]

Eddie, where do you stand? Who is scum?

For me? Toog and Nati.

Why would they cross each other at lylo?

[fferyllt]

Ok, so notsci you brushed off my question earlier about the town motivation of going along with Nati's Mason claim.

[fferyllt]

Both of you have burned the hell out of me in very recent games. I have no confidence in my reads and I fucking hate being at LYLO with you.

[fferyllt]

Ffery you going to hammer?

You're town.

Or you're scum with Eddie.

[fferyllt]

VOTE: EddieFenix

[fferyllt]

You again.

god damn it.

[fferyllt]

The silence is chilling. :/

[fferyllt]

It's over or it isn't.

notsci :/

[fferyllt]

Ok so that trust tell is history.

[fferyllt]

After your post 2130, I thought I'd given you the win.

[fferyllt]

I thought notsci not hammering meant he had to be scum.

[fferyllt]

You two can cross vote now, ns.

loled

[fferyllt]

God damn it. LYLO with the two claimed masons.

[fferyllt]

I'm trying to firewall all that.

[fferyllt]

Hmm. Yeah.

I'm going to check some prior games.

[fferyllt]

I don't know specifically about this game, but we hydra'd in a game where he just didn't have the time to play. He's not signing up for new games atm afaik.

Found this Eddie LYLO: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p4916028

Still looking.

[fferyllt]

The Calvin and Hobbes LYLO: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p5141623

[fferyllt]

IG you have any doubt that I'm town go read Eddie's ISO.

IG? you mean "If"?

[fferyllt]

NotSci, you played with Eddie in the Knights Errant game. How did you feel his play compared to here?

[fferyllt]

Or did it matter?

Eddie- when ffery nks me tonight remember that she's scum.

The fact she even needs to meta you with sakuras replace out is abominable.

Also, I think our tracker targeted the wrong scum twice in the row /golfclap

[fferyllt]

I think you're an encryptor, fferyllt. Explains the lack of mason death n1.

Nope.

[fferyllt]

Oh god stop. Every fucking time I look at the game from a town-you perspective you post something that freaks me out.

[fferyllt]

Nobody Special replaces GuyInFreezer

GiF replaced out of ALL his games during the Red Wine game. It's why that replacement was null to me.

[fferyllt]

Oh god stop. Every fucking time I look at the game from a town-you perspective you post something that freaks me out.

Well the wheels are spinning out of control what would happen if you held them still

You're trying to call me scum. That can be coming from a town place. But, I don't believe my play hasn't been ambiguous as all that.

[fferyllt]

Oh god stop. Every fucking time I look at the game from a town-you perspective you post something that freaks me out.

It's 1436 returned.

1436 is going to get me mislynched in some game, sometime. This should not be the game.

[fferyllt]

Bemused is perhaps the wrong word.

Then what is the right word?

I felt like I had a good handle on the game the day I replaced in. I lost the plot after the Varsoon lynch, I think.

[fferyllt]

Maybe so. They killed me N1 of BRO's open game but I think that was mostly Bert's idea.

[fferyllt]

I can't decide if I envy or pity people who regularly make it to LYLO. Practice has to mean eventual improvements.

[fferyllt]

Nati why would this LYLO be the best possible LYLO for notsci? For me?

Same question to you notsci. Why would this LYLO be the best possible LYLO for Nati? For me?

[fferyllt]

I don't really understand scum-you so I'm not sure my inferences are good. But, I think scum-you would want Toog alive, maybe. Toog was pushing an Eddie/notsci scum team yesterday, but an actual flip with all the posts leading up to it can change everything.

[fferyllt]

You think he would have maintained that stance after Eddie's flip given your part in the wagon?

[fferyllt]

90% of the time? Really?

[fferyllt]

:/

I'm surprised though. I had a different impression from some of our games.

[fferyllt]

It's flattering to be in that list. Don't think I've earned it.

Heh. Though at the moment you and nati both are on my hate to have to sort list, so.

[fferyllt]

The tell was already broken? What game?

[fferyllt]

I've had this conviction since day 3 or something that I would be at LYLO and that my vote would lose the game.

I'm not scum. I don't know if you are, Nati. I'm not going to cross-vote. I lost the raptured game for town by being there at LYLO mostly.

[fferyllt]

I've waffled like all hell since the Varsoon lynch for sure.

I don't believe NS would hold off hammering if he were scum.

VOTE: Nati

[fferyllt]

NS if you're scum, just end it.