Mini 1545: Teen Wolf Season 1 Mafia (GAME OVER!!!)

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Vote: RachMarie

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Unvote; Vote: hiplop

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I switched to hiplop due to his post 31. Juxtaposition of serious and jokey is unnatural.

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I switched to hiplop due to his post 31. Juxtaposition of serious and jokey is unnatural.

And this post isn't unnatural?

In the post literally above that one someone asked whether my post was RVS and whether there was any reasoning associated with it.

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Unvote; Vote: FTL

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I want to be a quadruple voter. :[

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Happy with FTL's comeback posts.

I like Rach's perspective on FTL pre-FTL comeback. Hiplop's multipost series seems town.

Unvote
Vote: SMP

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Hm, curious Icerint, what about my "multipost" reads town? this seems like a very bad attempt at appealing to me (a player who i m assuming you see as OMGUSish b/c of serras post?)

I'm referring to the part where you made the 3 posts in a row. I got the impression that you were energized by something that had happened in the game, which I think is a towntell, especially in a game with low activity. Your iso 10 stood out from the set.

I think you're a bit tunneled on me, but I figure it'll work itself out. I mentioned you in particular because I thought about voting you off of FTL, but then I noticed your multipost set.

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The source material has nice wolves and mean wolves.

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I also don't understand the SMP wagon.
The recent votes on SMP mark a strange change of tide in game-state.
What is up?
Why SMP?

-V

Basically, I read through people I had a null or scum read on until I found someone who didn't have any posts that made me go "oh this person is town nvm NEXT."

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Posting more in a sec.

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Rach, do you still think FTL is scum, or is that a hangover vote?

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Zekrom, who do you think is scum?

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Zek's a kind of nothing slot, but I'd rather lynch him than serra I think.

I'll check in again tomorrow early.

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Because he's a compromisey lynch, or based on something he did in particular?

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What do you mean "no one here d1"? Everyone was here, everyone participated, and we lynched scum. What's so funny about all of that?

- Des

Activity was pretty low yesterday, as evidenced by the prods, though that's partly because BRO has a prod-happy prod policy.

Is that from Des or Nacho or both of you together?

Strictly Nacho. The only thing I care about right now is tightening rope around hiplop's neck.

- Des

VOTE: SMP

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I was going to say that maybe it was because he was relatively active, but I guess he wasn't, really. I guess he was just discussed a lot.

I got a town read on him from my impression of his reaction to the pressure yesterday, so it's hard for me to interpret him that way, but I can see what you mean. Though it's not that scum would be frustrated by the SK lynch, so I don't know that it's really alignment-indicative, anyway.

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Wait, I think I misread one of your posts:

Is that from Des or Nacho or both of you together?

Strictly Nacho. The only thing I care about right now is tightening rope around hiplop's neck.

- Des

I thought this meant that only one of you wanted to lynch hiplop. Is it in fact the case that both of you want to lynch hiplop?

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TOWN:
Zekrom25 BugKitteh
The Betting Pool (penguin_alien+Lucky2u)
Lord Mhork
DeasVail*
orcinus_theoriginal**
RachMarie**
SMP*

SCUM:
Faster Than Light (Varsoon+Metal Sonic)**
Iecerint**

hiplop

*
Espeonage* FrenchAchilles

Rach asked who made this post and if it was collaborative. I said it was strictly Nacho.

- Des

OK, well, that's good enough for me.

Unvote

VOTE: hiplop

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Also Nacho that hurts my feelings.

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I don't know. I need to reread after not have payed much attention. Frankly I don't actually remember hiplop

???

Hiplop was like the most content-rich D1 poster IMO.

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Mhork, I think you should drop this for right now.

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And vote hiplop probably.

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Looks like he's currently at L-2, so don't vote yet actually.

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-_-

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I think it would be anti-town for you to continue in this particular direction.

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OK.

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As soon as I'm the active one, BRO's prodhammer loses its bite. :[

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Pretty sure FTL is town, too, initial funkiness notwithstanding. Though I guess they're a hydra.

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Mhork, when everyone's play is one way and your play is a different way, maybe you should stop and reflect on whether you are clueless and totally missing something.

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People who don't understand why hiplop is scum should read this day over again from the beginning.

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Iec: No I understand, don't worry, but I'm worried about assumptions being made where they shouldn't be.

The thought crossed my mind due to a particular post somewhere, except that:

a) I think it would have come out by now if that was the case, and
b) at this point, I think hiplop's actual behavior is scummy and I'd vote for him even if the situation you're thinking about is what's happened (i.e., long initial lag before posting followed by the gratuitous rolefishing).

And I had a townread on hiplop yesterday, so.

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Mhork, I am going to go ahead and lay out for you what the deal is. I feel like the following has been pretty transparent to enough players that I do not think there is much risk in pointing it out. I'm also concerned that unnecessary details might come out otherwise.

There was no kill last night. Ansuz started the day with an explanation-less vote on hiplop, even though his last prior comment was about hiplop having done something town. He clarified that both members of the hydra want to lynch hiplop, and he has single-mindedly focused on hiplop all day. This strongly suggests that Ansuz can account for the missing kill and that hiplop is implicated. The fact that he didn't correct anyone when people behaved accordingly makes this even more likely.

Hiplop's behavior since this came out has been based mainly around trying to pressure people to reveal why they believed what they believed. To understand this as town behavior, you have to infer that hiplop was totally naive to what everyone was doing (a stretch given what I've seen from hiplop in this game so far -- he has seemed much more engaged than other players) AND that his role has interacted in an unusual way with whatever Ansuz did. He also avoided the thread for a day or so after day start (not a stretch at all for most players, but hiplop has been relatively engaged AFAICR).

So in other words, the main reason to lynch hiplop is an educated sheep on Ansuz breadcrumbs, and his behavior today is basically consistent with caught scum who wants to out Ansuz the rest of the way.

EBWOP: See above.

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I think it's up to his discretion whether he wants to clarify the nature of the PR. I assume he's been cagey for a reason.

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His character in the show is a veterinarian who employs Scott in a part-time job, and in season one it later becomes clear that he can do magic things and such and is aware of the supernatural elements in the plot. He provides medical care to the various werewolves using his veterinary powers.

I think he might help chain up Scott in one of the episodes before he learns to master his transformations during the full moon? That's kinda JK-y. I don't remember tbh.

Hiplop's claimed character is the canon OTP w/ Scott during season 1 and she has a crossbow and her family are werewolf hunters and oh no how will their doomed love survive. :[

/flavor info

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I think the implication is that he targeted you because he thought you were scum.

Though, I guess his last mention of you was that something you had done was townie (I think complaining about my comment about your multipost).

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Yeah, I would have guessed that Stiles's dad would have an ability like that, if anyone. But ye know.

Can't find reference to Scott being locked at the vet's office in the episode summaries.

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Nacho had absolutely nothing to do with the target choice. We haven't even synched up re: this game yet and neither of us had sent an action in until we got a night prod; I reread, looked at the final VC, and sent it in on hiplop.

- Des

K, town + not lying here, I think.

I don't want to get too excited about perceived flavor match-up; I think it's just going to out other folks as they weigh their own flavor with any abilities they have, etc.

EBWOP: Majiffy, I don't think Ansuz/Des would have responded to that line of questioning that way unless it was true.

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I'm probably inclined to vote Majiffy right now, mainly for the hyperbolic hiplop defense yesterday.

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No,

I figured Ansuz was JK

and I was trying to subtly tell everyone to get out of their death tunnel. And then no one did, so I had to force the claim. And then no one listened anyway, because you're all fucking twits.

There was no reason to infer that Ansuz's implicit result on hiplop was a JK based on his behavior, and no reason for this to mean that hiplop was town, anyway.

VOTE: Majiffy

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I had assumed roleblocker, or at any rate something that would actually confirm hiplop as scum. Otherwise, I'd have expected him to be more cagey about it. JK result is still worth lynching, but not that unambiguously.

Knowing Ansuz-JK->hiplop means you know that hiplop was targeted with the NK. Not that some other mechanic caused no NK, not that hiplop was simply blocked scum.

Hiplop was relatively active D1, but nothing particularly townie about him apart from that. I don't buy that reading his iso could lead anyone to those kinds of theatrics.

Only possible exception to this is if you're Mhork, who "knew that it was the JK obv so obvious" despite spending all yesterday demanding that Ansuz explain the reasons for his read (aka if you totally miss the night game implications altogether).

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Ansuz was extremely aggressive. He did the blank vote at start, he praises people joining the wagon, he didn't put up any kind of caution sign when he got the support that he got. That's why it was irrational to assume that his result wasn't good. And you shouldn't try to out the specifics either way. That's something that is only of interest to scum.

Town is totally 100% in the dark about a missed NK, unless they caused it aka are Ansuz. The scum at least know who they killed.

All I know about Zek is that he's apparently kind of trollish and new. I'll rely on other people's take on what that has to do with his alignment this game.

I'd be OK with spending a lynch on him if it weren't going to put the game in lylo, but a) it's not D1 and b) you are the one pushing it.

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No, that is not what you said. You said that Ansuz was scum until waaaaay late into D2, when he had already claimed and stuff, e.g.:

Yeah I just skimmed ISOs of everyone on the wagon. I don't really see any reasons.

Also dissonance within Nacho's own reads.

Ansuz is probably scum

. Also probably a scumbutt in the {icerint, orci, TBP} portion of the wagon.

Maybe because he's scum

.

I think the implication is that he targeted you because he thought you were scum.

Though, I guess his last mention of you was that something you had done was townie (I think complaining about my comment about your multipost).

Hence why I think Nacho's dissonance is telling of their alignment.

This isn't typical of him.

Nice total redirection, too, but I'll continue to entertain you. Re: Zekrom, enough players have done the "have you played with Zekrom?" thing that I am pretty confident that it's a valid consideration. I could imagine a weak player ignoring the thread for 2 days regardless of alignment.

The appeal to having a life does raises an eyebrow, though. Hard to imagine an internet person having that as a legit reaction to pressure. But I know I'm not the best person to evaluate it. And you're kind of enough to keep me from getting to excited about it tbh.

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You're saying you thought he was town JK pre-claim, but you called him scum anyway...?

Yes, after they had already claimed JK you shifted gears and no longer pushed Ansuz town anymore. There's obviously no reason for scum to pressure Ansuz any more after he's already claimed.

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EBWOP: No longer pushed Ansuz scum anymore*

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It's not even true that I didn't acknowledge that you changed your tune eventually, not that that is at all relevant to anything except that you either cannot read or are REALLY trying to reframe my words:

No, that is not what you said.

You said that Ansuz was scum

until waaaaay late into D2, when he had already claimed and stuff

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What kind of case are peeps having on Jiffy?

Also I understand why Des and Nacho were pushing for Hiplop being scum based on the jailing, and a no NK, and I have to admit it seems odd that scum tried to kill Hiplop of all the peeps in the game, but yeah no way that Jiffy would go for that as a target so even more likely he is town.

The point is that Majiffy's defense of hiplop doesn't make sense for the reasons you just articulated. He has also misrepresented the character of his hiplop defense in the previous page in an effort to discredit me.

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What did you think I had said?

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(The only other possible parsing I can see is that you thought I was saying you said that Ansuz was town-culted late D2. Which, I don't think anyone would infer that by default.)

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Last I said I wanted Majiffy to clarify how he'd misparsed what I'd said, but I don't think that content was lost.

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Someone else can answer for him if it's ridiculously obvious and I just can't figure it out.

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Oh, like, without the "when" clause modifying when late in D2 I meant. OK, I can understand that.

Unvote

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From what other people have said, Zek seems like mislynch bait, so I think that scum going for him at this point would make sense. The fact that Majiffy is the one who came out with it made me think Zek was more likely to be town.

I'm not as sure about Majiffy scum right now because I think he showed evidence that he was reading my posts and actually trying to figure out what I was saying, rather than just misconstrue my posts into something scummy. So that makes me less sure about Zek as mislynch target, because I think Maj was the only one to really push for him for the first several rl days of D3 IIRC. If Majiffy is town, I think scum would have jumped on that sooner. So that makes me lean Zek-Scum.

If Zek does flip town, I think Espe looks relatively good for scum based on D3. Would need to look at D1/D2 again to feel secure about this.

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Reading over Espe and Zekrom has taught me pretty important things, like that Espe is French Achilles. ^^; And I think Zek is maybe a little more likely town again.

Going to try to find an old Zekrom game.

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Well, reading through Zekrom games isn't super helpful. He is lynched D1, modkilled, or replaces out in every completed game I can find. I thought I found

one

two

three exceptions, but then I noticed that he replaced in late-game on all of those occasions shortly before being lynched or the game ending.

Zek, do you have any

completed

games on the site where you made an appreciable number of posts, ideally one of each alignment?

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He actually has a surprising number of completed games, but the ones I found are all like the above.

It's possible some other ones are completed if the mods didn't update the names of the games (i.e., I only looked at games whose titles included Game Over).

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@ DV -- He's just embarrassed and wants to save face, OR he is slightly crazy and actually thinks it was obvious to him due to total shame. Probably town either way.

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I get that, but I think that it may be him being scum that was influencing his reaction yesterday (I do have my own reasons for thinking this though), and that he's actually trying to pretend that he's in the know now.

I guess to clarify. Obviously yesterday, scum knew that hiplop was town, so it would be easy for Mhork as scum to go on about how ridiculous the wagon is, especially if other scumbuddies are on the wagon.

I agree that D2 Mhork is interpretable as scum, but I don't think D3 scumMhork has any reason to pretend that JK was obvious to him (e.g., it's not like his cluelessness really led people to attack him), whereas townMhork has had a whole day to feel deeply embarrassed and explain his bad behavior to himself.

Basically, I think it is more likely that Mhork is lying to himself than to us.

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OK.

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Welp.

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There is no reason for an investigative role to full-claim D2. That is the reason why Ansuz did not full-claim D2. Please re-evaluate how you play the game.

The only reason to force a full-claim on an investigative role D2 is if you think the person is making a stupid gambit as town (that means faking a guilty, not following-up on a track/watch/JK result), or you think the person is scum.

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Ansuz was basically claiming already. I was making him actually commit to something.

This is something you do to scum -- not "obv JKs."

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You said he was "obviously a jailkeeper"...that's what this whole thing with me and DV re: you vs. your behavior not making any sense given that has been about....

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If Zek has claimed VT, he should be hammered. I kind of thought Espe hammered him tbh but w/e.

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Ryoukai

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I don't follow the SMP part. I read the part you quoted as like "there is not another protective role unless it is a nerfed one I guess," which seems reasonable to me. It's kind of eerie that he'd call out your role in particular as the nerfed role example, but I don't know why scum are any more likely to do that than town.

EBWOP: Meh, we still have a week, I guess.

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The Mhork stuff does help put stuff into context, though.

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^x2 Pedit*

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Unfortunately DV your whole 'white knight' theory has a second side: I'm town that thought Ansuz was either a stupid overconfident PR, an idiot fake claiming, or scum. Those were the options.

The scummy part is that you are leaving out/previously ignored the obvious 4th option that most players inferred: that Ansuz was simply a role consistent with his behavior.

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Prod received.

Jackson makes sense as a miller. He's like a token evil teammate in S1.

VOTE: Lord Mhork

I think Rach would have kept pushing Titus's slot as scum instead of dropping him, especially since she'd said she thought he was scummy rather than just a policy lynch.

I've gotten more and more uncomfortable with Mhork as D3 has gone on.

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DV, I don't understand why you think the SMP thing is a scummy thing.

Like, I'm presuming that it bothers you because the exception he listed was basically your role. That's eerie, but I don't see what it has to do with SMP's alignment.

Or is there a different reason it bothers you that I'm not picking up on?

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I don't think it's likely that Titus scumslipped with the miller claim. Zekrom's VT claim was his very last post in the game, and Titus replaced in when the slot was under pressure. Scum would definitely check for a claim before posting.

SMP is not a townread, really, but I'd prefer Mhork or even Espe. Less Espe because I like the @Rach explanation for his vote on Rach.

Don't really want to lynch Rach at all. Will reconsider if Titus ever flips scum.

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I think he did say something similar to that in one of his completed games that I glanced through, maybe the same thing verbatim.

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SMP, who are you scumreading at this point? Most of your recent posts have focused on DV's JK/one-shot doc thing.

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Ftr, Titus. You can't assume anything is necessarily scum and only scum. Majiffy is showing a ton of town motivation. He's very, very clearly townie.

1. Can we PLEASE lynch this thing?

2. Majiffy, I didn't really understand that argument at the start of the day and I still don't. It sounds like Zekrom thought the day had ended and it didn't. This suggests that Zekrom is not a very reliable player, but I don't think it says anything about his alignment. If anything, reading over your thing with Titus, it seems like it might be a mild towntell in that he'd be able to pick-up on things in his QT if scum.

Titus, I think Majiffy is town this game, even if a little annoying. Earlier today he backtracked when he realized he had mis-parsed something that I said. I don't think he had a good scum motivation for doing so.

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It sounds like Zekrom thought the day had ended and it didn't. This suggests that Zekrom is not a very reliable player, but I don't think it says anything about his alignment.

I highly disagree. He thought the day ended and never came back to check the flip in 48 hours?

Well, I can buy that it is a terrible thing to do, but I don't think he's any more likely to do it as scum (plus see below).

If anything, reading over your thing with Titus, it seems like it might be a mild towntell in that he'd be able to pick-up on things in his QT if scum.

Such as?

Titus' argument - especially post day-talk bit - has been obfuscation and self-consciousness. What I've come to expect from ScumTitus.
Town Titus is much different.

Clarification on my phrasing here -- before reading Majiffy-Titus, I thought him thinking the day had ended for so long was merely null (and indicating, ye know, being terrible). After reading through Majiffy-Titus, it occurred to me that him thinking that was probably a little town because it would be obvious to scum that the day hadn't ended (unless Zekrom is scum who doesn't use the QT at all, which honestly wouldn't really surprise me, which is why this isn't the townslip it might otherwise be).

So it's not like "Titus's clear use of English showed me things;" it's more like "their discussion about QTs made this occur to me."

I think I've only played with Titus once (maybe in the political corruption mafia game?). I didn't get much of an impression other than "not a VI" so. /shrug

I do agree that the Majiffy-Titus thing is very self-conscious or at least slot-conscious from Titus's side, but I think that's understandable because she's getting lots of "please interpret zekrom" things from everyone.

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Well, it's merely null if there's no night-chat. He'd probably still pick up on teammates not planning a kill in day chat I think, but I mean we're having to explain such strange behavior either way that it gets really weak. But that's still just downgraded to being uninteresting v townslip.

The two main things Titus has posted about are the VT/Miller discrepancy and more recently your bringing up being absent from the thread for 2 days. Those are both Zek things, so Titus has to fathom the mind of Zek, etc.

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If scum are talking in the QT during the day, that's all the more reason for hypoZekScum to recognize that the day hasn't ended. Access to a QT (whether locked or full of daytalking scum) provides cues that could clue him in. So I think what Zek did would normally be a townslip either way upon further reflection (though again, this all assumes that Zek actually would go to his QT and that given daytalk someone is posting there). TownZek doesn't have any of those QT-related cues.

It's true that you have not focused on the VT/miller thing (did not mean to imply otherwise), but others have (e.g., TBP IIRC). I'm talking about Titus's self-consciousness in posting style, which I perceive too a little bit, but I think it's because of the Zek-geared questioning since he has entered the game.

FWIW I personally did interpret the VT thing as a claim at the time, but I guess I was mistaken.

Pedit - Titus, I don't think Majiffy is positing that Zekrom did any gambiting. The idea is that town Zekrom would come back to the game to check for a flip, but scum wouldn't.

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Yes, I already said that.

What were you referring to re: gambiting...?

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Majiffy was implying that Zekrom might have faked not knowing the day had not ended, which was ludicrious. He doesn't want to believe if the mod comes back with a night chat only for scums that my slot is practically townfirmed at that point.

OK.

Re: the other, Maj is pretty tunneled, I think is all. I think he would have followed the pivot after your replacement to someone else if scum.

@ Maj - Yes, it is scummy to lamely say "X got distracted" or whatever, but this is Titus talking about his own slot's behavior. It's not handwaving it away because he already knows the alignment either way.

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If be down to butcher Orc, but I'm also happy with Titus wagon.

Utter lack of trajectory on this read

Mhork wants to lynch you mainly because Rach showed up and said she wanted to lynch you rather than Maj/Titus.

Please for a heroic flash wagon on Mhork. :[

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Majiffy, who am I looking at aside from Titus for today's lynch

SMP is likely scum IMO. RachMarie is viable but seeming town. While I disagree with her on Majiffy, scum!Rch wouldn't go out of her way to dissolve a Majiffy/Titus fight can call it toen v town. Well here i a remote chance she's Majiffy's partner but meh

If Rach is scum it's more likely she's scum with you tbf.

But I don't think she's scum so.

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It looks like Mhork isn't happening. He's ridiculously opportunistic and he should be the obvious lynch, but whatever.

Unvote; Vote: SMP

Really don't like DV's switch from SMP to Titus, especially given the DV-made case on SMP from earlier today. That makes me feel very uncomfortable with lynching Titus today.

This puts both wagons at L-2 I think.

I will be in before deadline to potentially hammer Titus if need be, as a Titus lynch is at least informational (TitusTown -> SMP/Rach/DV look bad; TitusScum -> orci/Mhork look bad).

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DV, if you're town, Titus's behavior is from being paranoid town who's been attacked repeatedly for bogus shit. She has no reason to antagonize you as scum whatsoever.

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Hmm...

Who did you target N1/N2? Why Majiffy?

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I thought you were just claiming your N3 result. I've never played a game with a night N cop; just odd/even.

You didn't answer why you targeted Majiffy.

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Well, now that you've already said that you want to go last, we probably may as well, especially if you've already said you want to do it. Can't be much more out there, so.

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NL and they'll just kill TBP at this point. WIFOM but.

Though they could infer that orc could be lying about being 1-shot, ala DV.

So there's that.

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Ok explain how both orc and majiffy can be both be town.

Phantom redirector, phantom busdriver, etc.

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Titus's question popped up during preview edit and I thought the answer was obvious. I'd forgotten about the context.

Still, I mean, it's trivial to come up with a scenario like that.

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Popcorn someone.

TBP's request for last pick can be evaluated at claim.

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Adrian Harris (the science teacher guy), VT

Popcorn -> Majiffy

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I just popcorned Majiffy.

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Espe, your posts earlier leave me a little confused about your attitude toward Majiffy.

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I'm waiting for TBP to do whatever he wanted to do or decline to do so before I vote.

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As far as flavor goes, if the Argents are scum, there are probably 3 possible individuals: Allison's father (Lawful Neutral), Allison's mother (Lawful Evil), and Allison's Aunt (Chaotic Evil). Her mother is a major character, the werewolf-hunting society is matriarchal, etc. So I don't think it's true that the flavor lends itself to a 2-man scumteam a priori.

If it's a 2-man scumteam, the least evil Argent (other than Allison) is definitely her father. It may also be that her aunt is left out, since the aunt is a relatively minor character who only comes in to be the strawman evil Argent to make Allison's father more sympathetic.

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But I mean, it's not like 2-scum makes it better to lynch orci, anyway? If anything, 3-scum makes orci more likely to be scum, because it would mean it's mylo. The majiffy target is still kinda zany, though.

Am I the only person here who actually watches this show? XD

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The PRs themselves are in the best position to identify whether claiming the particulars is worth it.

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Iecerint, where do you think I'm coming from in my mass claim push here?

--PA

Since you requested to go last earlier, I'd assumed that you were some kind of PR for whom going last in a massclaim made sense.

The cost/benefit of completing the massclaim and specifying your role is obviously going to depend upon your role.

[Iecerint]

Espe is a pretty good fakeclaimer if that's a fakeclaim. SMP checks out, though not in the first post D2. No crumb for me, though, that I can see. Plus, fits with thinking that JK+Doctor could be mirrored by Cop+Tracker. And it'd be a pretty dangerous fakeclaim plan not to renege on after orc had claimed and TBP had claimed "investigative." And failed action claims are pretty much 100% town in my experience.

[Iecerint]

dealing with major sinus and congestion issues all the pollen is in the air. And due to my bp I can't take decongestants just the antihistamine bah

Rach, what is your take on the Majiffy/orc business?

[Iecerint]

@Majiffy, Oh please. More "slip" talk from you. How desperate are you? The great Majiffy can't admit he got it wrong is because you are scum. It was indicating you are condescending and patronizing. You do both well as town or scum.

I think you're scum but I cannot rule out a double bus 100% yet. So yeah, I'm going to react bad to Orc keeping his options open.

... But what am I "getting wrong" as scum? You still haven't answered that.

She's saying that you're not getting it wrong because you're scum.

[Iecerint]

I think Maj has in general played the townier game, but I think it's a super dumb move for orcScum. Orc's flavor makes sense.

I'm probably leaning toward voting Maj at this point.

[Iecerint]

Scum claiming a guilty per se makes a lot of sense; scum claiming a guilty on Majiffy in particular doesn't make as much sense. And I can kind of see Majiffy as a paranoid target during N3.

If Orc is scum, I think it is likely that Titus is scum. Titus could also be scum without Orc being scum. Titus being scum doesn't imply OrcScum as strongly I don't think.

I'd almost lynch Titus before Orc tbh. His behavior today is kind of scummy regardless of whether Majiffy or Orc is scum. The nature of the Maj-Titus interactions today seem relatively contrived to me (e.g., both players are misrepresenting one another repeatedly). The only thing holding me back from Titus-Maj is that I don't think D3 looked like bussing (e.g., espe/rach got off of zdenek/titus after the replacement, but Maj went back to it). Maj did eventually vote for SMP, but that was pretty close to deadline.

[Iecerint]

Maj's actual D2/3 case on the Zdenek slot was always really dumb, though.

[Iecerint]

Look at the syntax of her sentence. It's obvious that something like "the reason" is intended to head the sentence. You're getting all worked up about an obvious grammatical error.

[Iecerint]

Read the part of the sentence you didn't render in bold.

[Iecerint]

Or for 1061, literally the next sentence.

[Iecerint]

She is saying that you are being intransigent due to being scum. The idea is that you would modify your position with new information if town. You are reading her post wrong at best.

I agree that her reasoning is broadly sketchy. I think that both of you are attacking one another for contrived reasons.

[Iecerint]

I want to hear Rach's perspective before the day ends.

[Iecerint]

Well, that was underwhelming.

Vote: Majiffy

L-1

[Iecerint]

Unvote

I don't want to give Rach both of them at L-1.

[Iecerint]

Oh, I'd thought it was L-1 for both.

Vote: Majiffy

[Iecerint]

We'll know when Titus posts, I guess.

I suspect it's Rach because IIRC her previous posts had her leaning orcTown specifically due to the claim, and then she voted orc due to the claim.

[Iecerint]

More scum in the game (the case where this is mylo) makes it more likely that the game has a cop, not less.

[Iecerint]

3 scum and an SK (mylo circumstances) means town has to have a lot of power.

Rach clearly isn't reading orc very critically if she thinks he's a 1-shot cop. It doesn't take a genius to imagine why a cop might gambit-claim that they can't investigate anymore.

@orcwagon as a whole

[Iecerint]

Well, as long as Titus isn't scum with Majiffy, we'll probably NL and do it all over again.

[Iecerint]

Game over unless Espe is scum or the scum don't know how to play mafia. Or if it wasn't mylo, after all.

[Iecerint]

Vote: Titus

There are probably 2 scum left given orc's fakeclaim. It's like 95% Titus and Espe. Titus is the surer of the two by far.

[Iecerint]

Waiting for Espe.

[Iecerint]

It'll depend on what Espe says.

[Iecerint]

Espe's results could potentially establish a 1/1.

There's already basically a 1/1 between me and Espe, anyway, but there's a very outside chance that Majiffy could be scum, and Espe's could nullify that chance (or have a positive on Majiffy, in the outside chance that Majiffy is scum).

(Rach obviously can't be scum now that 2 scum have flipped unless she just played poorly.)

[Iecerint]

After Titus's death (confirming 3 scum), it's impossible for either you (Rach) or Mhork to have been scum because you could have won the game 2 days ago by hammering Majiffy. (Well, it's still possible if you didn't notice it or weren't online, but pretty remote.)

Majiffy can only be scum if all of two days ago was a gambit and both orc and Majiffy were scum (unlikely but not math-impossible like the above two cases).

Espe and I are the last two, but from my POV there's a chance that he could choose to make it Espe/Majiffy if he's scum or to have actually tracked Majiffy if Majiffy is scum, hence the preference for waiting.

[Iecerint]

Speak again bright angel.

[Iecerint]

Well, that makes your slot pretty town. Kind of like Majiffy's. So:

Vote: No Lynch

[Iecerint]

Sure.

Basically, Rach is town unless she forgot to hammer, Majiffy is town unless scum claimed a guilty on scum, and you are town unless Espe posted in the QT without visiting the site or something.

So I want to reduce the complexity by 1 before deciding.

[Iecerint]

I'd really like to know your reads, Iecerint.

Differentiating between them beyond the summary in the previous post probably defeats the point of NL.

There is someone who I think is more likely between you three.

[Iecerint]

Yes, Rach is confirmed town unless she forgot to hammer (cf., 1316).

[Iecerint]

I would prefer to NL first. Even if the chance of you or Rach being scum is very low, it is still higher than 0%.

I would be more OK with skipping it if I didn't also have good reasons to think Majiffy was town.

[Iecerint]

I can understand it being awkward for you to come in, be conftown, and go to night, but.

[Iecerint]

Good wagon history from what I can remember, and he had a guilty claimed on him by flipped scum [orc] in mylo (= D4).

And I was relatively sure your slot was the remaining scum until your replace-in post (due to PoE + somewhat odd reasoning for supporting orc as a cop based on being a tracker).

I would be really mad at myself if I lost to your slot without taking NL.

[Iecerint]

Wagon history = he wanted to lynch flipped scum, he didn't want to lynch flipped town.

At this point, NL will kill either you or Rach. If it kills you, I will not be worried about your slot. If it kills Rach, your result will confirm me (or confirm Majiffy to me), barring the phantom busdriver or whatever (unlikely since both scum flips have been PRs already).

Pedit -- Well, it's just a question of whether you're worried about Rach throwing, then.

[Iecerint]

I also think that Majiffy is the most likely. No harm making it clear at this point because the pattern of questioning has made it pretty obvious.

Throwing means losing something that should have been won due to carelessness.

[Iecerint]

I would expect you to be pretty focused on me tbh. Not that I wasn't fine with you surprising me.

It would be nice for Rach to pop in and indicate whether she wants to NL.

[Iecerint]

I guess the negative tracks could account for it, though.

[Iecerint]

[W]e could have easily won this two day phases ago with a simple lynch on Iec or Espy or Rach.

Orc targeting you doesn't make much sense regardless of the identity of the third scum.

And it's not true that no one suspected orc; IIRC some people (I think Rach and I) voiced suspicion D3 during the SMP/Titus wagon.

[Iecerint]

Yep, here's Rach's orc stuff D3

Orc since you are on could you go into more detail who YOU think is scum? Your vote is on me, and its unlike you to rail on other peeps while vote parking, yet you have not made any kind of case on me whilst complaining about Jiffy not having a solid read on me

Where is the fiery speeches and cases you usually do Orc?

I think I mentioned that I have been sick. I even had to call NS to come back home from the errands he was doing, after I puked my guts out in the trash can next to my computer. Also was dizzy and woosy and afraid to get out of the chair with him gone. Running a fever too. So yeah I have not done much in my games past few days.

Still your play is not the usual play I have seen from you, so why would you be surprised I would point it out. If you are town Orc, we NEED you. If you are not then you need rope.

With the lack of time, I will claim

I am VT.

Reads

I think Jiffy, TBP and Mhork are town

Light town read on DV

Very light town read on Titus (primarily due to the un CCed PR claim)

I think the scum are in (Orc, SMP, or maybe even Ice)

VOTE: SMP

My only comment was in the context of the benefit of a hammer on Titus, so I guess I misremembered:

It looks like Mhork isn't happening. He's ridiculously opportunistic and he should be the obvious lynch, but whatever.

Unvote; Vote: SMP

Really don't like DV's switch from SMP to Titus, especially given the DV-made case on SMP from earlier today. That makes me feel very uncomfortable with lynching Titus today.

This puts both wagons at L-2 I think.

I will be in before deadline to potentially hammer Titus if need be, as a Titus lynch is at least informational (TitusTown -> SMP/Rach/DV look bad; TitusScum -> orci/Mhork look bad).

[Iecerint]

The NK to me makes NO sense at all.

Rach, you and Mhork were confirmed town for the exact same reason after Titus flipped: both of you had the opportunity to win outright if scum for a window during D4. The reason is that if you were scum it would mean that Majiffy was town, and you could have switched wagons and hammered him. This was clear after Titus flipped because Titus flipping and the game not ending meant that D4 had been mylo.

I know this was clear to Espe's slot and to me; Espe even posted about it D4 (though while also ruling out Majiffy on the grounds that orc/Majiffy were 1/1).

[Iecerint]

Rach, it looks like Majiffy and Espe both don't want to NL. If you don't want to NL, either, NL will be impossible.

Let me know if you want to NL.

The benefit of NL is that someone will die and flip town and the puzzle will become easier. Espe's nigh-confirmation and PR mean he might be killed instead of you, so it is worth it to you if you think that Quil has any chance of being scum.

If you do not want to NL, I will vote Majiffy.

[Iecerint]

Rach, my point is that despite you being "more" confirmed, there is a chance that he will die at night if town due to his PR. Or, if you are killed, Espe will identify or choose the 1/1. Either way, it makes tomorrow easy for me.

If you want to talk Maj/Iec with Quil a bit first, that's fine.

[Iecerint]

Well, easier for me unless Quil is scum who picks Quil-Maj. But at least it would be a quick death.

[Iecerint]

This also really reeks. Zekrom implied he was a VT, Titus replaced him and claimed miller. This is a contradiction. Saying 'if Titus were scum, Titus would've checked for Zekrom's claim and then claimed VT to be consistent, therefore Titus is town' makes no sense, because if Titus' slot were town then there would be no reason for it having claimed two different roles in the first place. It's always far more likely when a slot is inconsistent with claims between replacements that the players are scum who didn't check to see what their predecessors claimed rather than the players being town and the role mysteriously changing between replacements.

It's even more damning considering Titus flipped scum.

Scum would have looked, seen VT, and claimed VT. Titus didn't.

The first thing I do when I replace in as scum is iso whoever I replaced.

[Iecerint]

- Iecerint seemed too keen for everyone to go along with Anzus' bloodlust for hiplop, especially considering he thought hiplop was town on Day 1 and there are lots of reasons why there could've been no kill. A townie would've been more hesitant.

- Speaking of which, Iecerint seems to contradict himself on how townie he thought hiplop was during Day 1. Compare #330 ("I had a townread on hiplop yesterday") and #549 ("Hiplop was relatively active D1, but nothing particularly townie about him apart from that.")

- Majiffy pointed out Zekrom's scumslip, and pushed it through Day 3.

- The Majiffy / Titus argument during Day 3 doesn't read scum on scum at all.

- orcinus' Cop fakeclaim was so ridiculously bungled that there's absolutely zero chance that it was a gambit with Majiffy. He didn't even co-ordinate with Titus to ensure they would be consistent about the use of investigation language across their claims, there's no chance at all they were trying to fakeclaim on a scumbud to ensure towncred no matter what the flip was.

- Iecerint has been really non-committal on his reads of all the flipped scum. He especially looks like he's awkwardly hanging back from picking a side in the Majiffy/Orc fight during Day 4.

- Yeah, there's no way orcinus was trying to bus Majiffy.

1. I was hesitant until he clearly crumbed that it was based on an investigative result. That's why I didn't follow along until one head clarified that both heads 100% agreed on it. I misread one of the earlier posts at first to think that one head disagreed, which made me think it wasn't a crumb until they clarified. There's no reason I would infer that it was an investigative result on town as scum, anyway.

As for the Hiplop thing, you're reading it out of context. I had a town read on him during D1, but in hindsight after a guilty crumb I thought it was just because he was one of the only active players that phase.

2. Majiffy's scumslip on Zekrom never made any sense. I know Zekrom was scum in hindsight, but it still doesn't make sense to me. This was in fact one of the reasons I thought Majiffy was more likely scum than you, especially after the lag in when Espe visited the site.

3. I don't understand what the target of a faked investigation has to do with whether it's going to have inconsistencies.

4. I wasn't sure about Majiffy/Orc because I'd read Majiffy town all game before that, but I didn't know why OrcScum would choose Majiffy as a target.

It is definitely true that I have a bad read record, though. Majiffy has a good one; your slot is somewhere in-between.

I'm not changing my vote.

[Iecerint]

Saying that something "doesn't make sense as town" isn't the same thing as saying it's more likely to come from scum. Some things are just really unlikely regardless of alignment (cf., all the Zekrom stuff).

You're reading some quotes out of context -- for example, 272 ("Hiplop was content-rich") is in response to Mhork saying he doesn't remember Hiplop.

My read on Majiffy is what made me kind of vacillate a little bit, but I thought Majiffy seemed like a dumb enough target for a fake jailkeep that I sided against him.

[Iecerint]

Do you accept the conclusions I made in the penultimate sentence of #1368? If not, why not?

This?

Therefore either he lied about thinking Day 2 had ended or he didn't check to see what hiplop flipped.

I see no reason why town would do either.

Short version is that scum have quicktopics. ZekromTown just has to be uncurious and bad at the game (consistent with his reputation). That was my thinking. Also, even prior to that occurring to me, I was pretty skeptical that the chance of either alignment not looking at the thread due to their alignment was very great.

I know that. I guess I just consider 'content-rich' to have positive connotations.

In post 1374, Iecerint wrote:
My read on Majiffy is what made me kind of vacillate a little bit, but I thought Majiffy seemed like a dumb enough target for a fake jailkeep that I sided against him.

I'm very confused by this entire sentence. Can you restate it?

You're correct that I had a positive net vibe from Hiplop D1. Not enough to counter an investigative crumb, though. The situation with orc-Majiffy is really pretty similar, with the difference that it was a more positive vibe.

This ties into your last question, too. Normally, I would err on the side of believing orc unless I had a really good reason not to do so. My impression of Majiffy was town enough that I vacillated a little (i.e., more town than hiplop, in part because of the consistency).

The other point has to do with who orc claimed a fake guilty on. Majiffy seemed like an unnecessarily risky target to gambit on, but simultaneously a plausible paranoid N3 check, so I believed it.

Fake jailkeep is just a typo; meant fake target. I guess I was still thinking about the D2 Ansuz jailkeep as I was typing.

[Iecerint]

Do you think Zekrom as scum would check whether his scum QT was going? Have you ever in real life not checked the thread after the perceived lynch as scum?

You have to explain-away bad play either way.

[Iecerint]

Yes, but it also could have been that ZekTown didn't check because he is sort of not the strongest player and thought he didn't have to worry about the game until the next game phase. It's not in fact the case post-flip, but it's at least as plausible if you haven't already seen the Zekflip IMO.

Being someone who was playing with Zek in a now-completed other game simultaneously (EmpKing's UPick), I thought this was the more likely case if anything.

[Iecerint]

Back from V/LA.

VOTE: Majiffy

Majiffy is the only possibility with Espe flipped.

The best thing I can point out to help Rach is that Maj's case on Zek/Titus didn't make much sense, and that orc's targeting Majiffy with his fakeclaim didn't make sense when he could have claimd his result on Rach or Espe or Mhork or me. My guess is that that move came up because they were worried about how Titus/Majiffy would look after the SMP lynch, so they planned to bus as a response to that. It was still kind of an unnecessary complication even with that IMO, but it's what must have happened.

Quilford was killed because he would have confirmed me as town with a track result tonight, whether via a guilty on Majiffy or an innocent on me. Confirming me as town would remove the simplest way for Majiffy to win.

Espe's slot had 2 negative tracks on my slot which, while not fullproof (Titus could have killed the last night, orc or titus could have killed the first night), are pretty decent night evidence that I'm town. It's too bad that Espe forgot to submit an action once Titus/orc were both dead, but meh.

I'm around to answer whatever else.

[Iecerint]

Such throws.

Well, we tried.

[Iecerint]

I really do think Majiffy's Zek case was pretty silly, though.

[Iecerint]

Orci you have

got

to explain to me why you guys thought it was a good idea for your least-suspected team member to try to run a fake guilty report on me of all people at MYLO.

Like seriously.

We didn't think that; I told him that his flavor (Sheriff Stilinski) fit with investigative, but to be careful of another nerfed investigative role in the set-up. It was intended as a "here's info about your massclaim options"-type information.