Mini 1599: Greatest Idea Mafia (Game Over)

[Marky Mark]

/confirm #keen

[Marky Mark]

Well, that's a lot of vanilla discards.

VOTE: Reminiscence
For discarding Doc. Really the only good role for town I can see in the discards aside from IC.
And on that note FoS: Ki-Gi

On the whole Mafia doctors tend to be pretty bad for the town's health, you know what with their faction being out to kill us and all that.

VOTE: KiGi
Cos IC is a pretty big deal.

[Marky Mark]

#oops, completely overlooked that. So would combining IC with a scum alignment give you an innocent scum? (i.e. really scum but confirmed by mod as town)

[Marky Mark]

[Marky Mark]

So yeah VOTE: Unvote pending hearing back from the mod. Tbh I think slip by Not_Mafia was just as bad if not worse.

[Marky Mark]

Town tbh, altho both have their merits. I like the fact with town that you just have act genuinely, theres no need to fake anything. But then equally I dislike the feeling of helplessness you get as town when you don't have a clue whos scum.

[Marky Mark]

Marky, do you prefer being town or being mafia?

Why do you ask btw?

[Marky Mark]

Erm yeah, I skimmed through, saw things had kicked off so went and got a beer and then read through properly. And yeah could you answer my question please? Just seems a bit random and not sure why you chose to direct it specifically at me.

pedit : well I'm probably going to vote Reminiscence or Not_Mafia depending on which way the mod comes down. Could've kept my vote where it was till then but didn't see much point - although having said that Im keen to know why KigI chucked IC.

[Marky Mark]

And yeah could you answer my question please? Just seems a bit random and not sure why you chose to direct it specifically at me.

Just to make clear, that was addressed to Reminiscence

[Marky Mark]

I'm not sure I can see many scum being caught out by it but whatever works...

[Marky Mark]

Yeah I see what you mean, tbh I had the same thought process about how little use being a mason is when scum can be them too (plus there is no guarentee there'll be other masons) hence why I tossed the role.

[Marky Mark]

Also, VT discards also irk me, because people could have used those as the alignment card, but blah that's just which-alignment-PR-did-you-use-WIFOM.

Actually, drawing three town roles is pretty likely.

Not true, on the role list roles 1-81 are town and 81/137^3 is 0.216 (thanks google) so its pretty unlikely actually. Nice try.

pedit: beat me to it!

[Marky Mark]

Retract my previous post, I would rather have Town withhold their alignment cards in case they can counterclaim a scum alignment card claim.

This.

[Marky Mark]

It means I agree with the point raised here.

[Marky Mark]

the point was that its better not to reveal alignment cards yet as if we have a unique card and somebody else claims that role we know they are lying.

[Marky Mark]

You claiming town governor as one of yours?

pedit: yeah likewise

[Marky Mark]

Okay, so Reinoe just claimed for no reason. .__.

At least we learnt that you are either scum or a governor, meaning if we mislynch him its not the end of the world.

[Marky Mark]

Whoops, yeah was originally going to address it straight to him.

[Marky Mark]

VOTE: Ki-gi
I'm pretty confident you would have to specify your discard, and

Mod should be able to easily confirm or deny this along with the question about whether Mafia Masons are allowed

. I also don't see why you would ever discard IC over VT in this scenario, like ever.

[Marky Mark]

I know.
What I meant was, if ki-gi was telling the truth, mod would've said that mistake was made on his part in some way, just like he did with my situation because those are sort of things that doesn't confirm anyone as towb by admitting a mistake.

Mod should be easily able to confirm whether he made an error in his PM by checking his PM to you. Question will have to be carefully worded as you can be lying about PM.

Mod- In the event that Mafia Mason was a possible role for Reminiscence, did you not cross it out by mistake in the PM?

I hope that's a reasonable question to ask, when potential is involved that could have a massive impact on the game I think its only fair.

[Marky Mark]

Not foolproof, assuming that you did indeed have a mason card (which is not for certain) you could've had used that as role along with a scum alignment and seen that there was no other Masons in the game, thus making it safe to claim what you have. Theres not that many mason cards in the game, so the chance of being a sole mason isn't that low.

pedit : I'll wait for the mod to confirm or deny that, unfortunately I have no way of knowing whether what you are claiming is true.

[Marky Mark]

Lissa, why did you vote Ki-Gi if you knew he had already been hammered?

[Marky Mark]

I originally thought that it was because you weren't sure if he had actually been lynched or not, but after

Wtf why are we hammering already

Ki-Gi is confirmed scum.
I was going to suggest we wait to hammer but Reinoe had already hammered so I figured I might as well add my vote to the pile.

it seems more like an attempt to get town points by being associated with the wagon.

[Marky Mark]

Not sure how much I buy the Aronis must be town to know about discarding mechanics theory (he could've been in the same situation in a previous game etc.) but his interactions with Ki-Gi makes him look pretty town regardless.

So you're saying you had no say whatsoever in discarding Innocent Child over Vanilla Townie?
Interesting. That's not how I would've expected it to be done, but I specifically said which card I was discarding and which one I was using as alignment when I chose my role, so I had no idea how that'd be handled otherwise and thus at the moment have no reason to disbelieve you purely based on that.

In hindsight, this looks a little scummy, altho may just have not wanted to jump to conclusions. My issue with the Ki-Gi vote after the hammer is Lissa's justification of it and how he then later tries to downplay it with the whole "just throwing my vote on the pile" thing.

Shame that Mod didn't give us anything clear cut about the whole Rem Mafia-Mason scenario. The VT claim to me seems more like newb scum than anything else. I particularly don't like 245 and the attempt to prove himself town with some iffy logic. Some people seem to be reading him as pretty town though (e.g. awesomeusername) so would like to hear from them as to why.

[Marky Mark]

This has kinda been debated already but he had to make some sort of justification/claim and the not wanting the pressure of a PR seems like an excuse that a newb scum might well think is believable. It fees similar to Ki-Gi's excuse that he wanted the challenge of not being confirmed town, the motivations in both cases don't gel with what you would expect from a town player.

[Marky Mark]

That needs him to play the same type of game under same mod and experience it. I already checked but this is his first time playing greatest idea mafia under the moderator Zaicon.

Let me start by saying I totally agree that as a townie, if there is a way to prove your innocence you should definitely take it. That being said, you seem to be going out of the way to "prove" stuff that is not necessarily true, this being a case in point (others have already explained the flaws with this argument).

7) Lissa - I'm gonna say half of Marky Mark and half of Not_Mafia.
8) Marky Mark - Can't be mafia. This guy is an interesting fellow to read because I find myself hiding part of my opinion about him time to time until right time. This is yet another moment I'm gonna do this.

Erm... what? I'm really struggling to understand what you mean in Lissa's read. As to myself, I would love to know what your hidden opinion is, as at the moment it feels like a convenient way of covering a lack of a read with waffle.

What you're doing here is you're only looking at a part of my reason for choosing a VT over other PRs and trying to compare that to Ki-Gi's reason (which was only "I like being challenged.")
As I said, I would've gone for mason over VT if not for all those mafia mason stuffs.

This has already been discussed. I don't think the comparison is a poor one, if we ignore the the whole mason thing you still had the choice between doctor and VT so my point is still valid. As to the comparison, it was the motivations that I was comparing. In both cases they not only involved a personal preference that seems unlikely (cos who doesn't love a PR?) but also put this preference before the good of the town.

xdfagents' posts are saying scum to me too. After lurking D1, he comes in with nothing-posts like 301 and sheeps a scumlean on reminiscence without providing any of his own reasoning. Current top 3 scumreads are #1 Rem, #2 xdf, #3Lissa. Reinoe is super pushy but I'm willing to write that off for the moment as he was pushy in the same way with the whole Bins thing, and his motivations there were pretty town. Would like to hear from ac who has been lurking so far too.

VOTE: Reminiscence

[Marky Mark]

Phoneposting.

@Mark: regarding my comment on lissa, that means I see some same trait I see from you and her posts are mostly generic like not-mafia's posts.

Also regarding hiding reads, well I did ask you a question. Did you see it?

I believe someone told me that I don't have any scumreads. Well, that's true. As you can see in my readlist I posted, I have either town or "lack of useful contents."

Also, agents posts looks like town to me. I'll explain later when I go back home.

k, assuming you are referring to "What is your opinion about the relation of theories/logics and reads?". I didn't answer because it was a very vague question but I guess it depends on the theory/logic in question. If it is solid then yeah, its a good basis for a read.

Btw, why would I still be scum if I discarded an anti-town role?

I don't like this awareness of his discard looking decent and trotting that out under such little pressure

This.

[Marky Mark]

Ask a generic question, get a generic answer But in all seriousness if you actually explained what you were trying to ask then I might be able to answer less generally. Also, please stop dodging my questions to you about your cryptic reads post.

[Marky Mark]

And yes I have read 319 but it is still pretty vauge.

[Marky Mark]

Where do I even start with these last 3 posts? I'm finding it very hard to peg you because some of your posts are pretty sophisticated but others such as 326 seem to come from another planet. I will try and humour you by writing a more in depth answer, but as you insist on being so waffley, I cannot promise it will be what you are looking for.

so yeah, reads come from a lot of things - gut, meta, reasoning about the setup, votecount analysis, how they act towards other players etc. The vast majority of reads are based of some sort of logic, whether it is soft e.g. X acted like this, so their motivation must be Y or hard e.g. there's 3 of us left, and me and X are masons so Z is scum. Theories I'm not too sure what you mean, do you mean like common tells? But to answer your question more than reads being associated off logic, they are

based

on logic of some sort in the first place.

Now enough derailing the thread. Answer my questions please.

[Marky Mark]

You're right, this is getting us sidetracked. @Rem - I try to base my reads on logic as much as possible yeah. And dw about 328 - I have seen people get much more heated up than that before over a game of mafia Now what about letting us know what your reads are?

Aronis, you've been sitting there hmming to yourself - thoughts?

[Marky Mark]

Theres a lot of fence sitting going on at the moment, would like to see scumreads and/or votes from people like Aronis/xdfagent - there's enough by this point to be able to make an initial judgement I feel.

@Rem what is your prior experience with mafia? I'm finding it hard to consolidate my read of you because some of the stuff you say seems to miss the point completely but things like "There is nothing more boring in mafia game than see two of his townreads arguing." sound like they come from a player with experience.

pedit: frankly I don't think we can read much either way into the whole mafia mason thing due to the mod neither confirming or denying it, my vote is more based on the claim itself and rem's subsequent actions

[Marky Mark]

Was waiting to hear what the mod had to say about your role PM, plus the Not_Mafia slip had also just happened. Then the whole Ki-Gi thing came and that pretty much took over for the rest of the day.

[Marky Mark]

Dodging what exactly?, my vote on rem today was not based on the mafia mason thing, and I never claimed it was.

[Marky Mark]

I wasn't really clear on what Rem was asking about specifically at this point with the whole linking theories to reads thing .

[Marky Mark]

ac1983fan is well on his way to becoming a scumread. He's essentially lurked throughout today despite promising content, and all he has done in his posts is hard-defend my #1 scum read. Will wait and see if he posts anything more substantial when he returns from V/LA

Dude, I dont wanna waste my votes then get called scum by wagon-hopping, so I'm making sure I'm making the correct choice.

This feels fairly genuine, despite the flawed reasoning. Its still a glorified prod dodge though, so would like to see something of more substance for you.

VOTE: Rem

Sheep the conf town!

So yeah, this and the general lack of content from you today gives me the feeling you are just sitting back and spectating. Would be great to hear what your own views on Rem, plus the rest of what is going on today.

368 by lissa feels over-thought in places, I kind of agree with your point on Darklight but the bit about NM's phrasing feels artificial, the fact that you admitted as much makes me lean towards it being genuine scum-hunting though.

[Marky Mark]

Phoneposting. Lurking = inactive = somebody who posts infrequently and/or has little content in their posts.

Your response to reinoe is quite wifom-y . You are trying to explain why scum you would not discard doc, but overlooking the fact they might have chosen a different role instead of doc. The narrow-mindedness of the assertion here of "if I was scum here I would have to act like x" here seems very much like a scum perspective.

[Marky Mark]

And yeah not sure why aronis is bringing up that whole point like its a new thing so long after it was first discussed.

[Marky Mark]

Lurking implies that the person is actually reading the thread and not posting. Inactivity means not posting in general.

I'm not trying to explain why scum wouldn't discard doc. I'm trying to explain why

I

as scum wouldn't discard doc.

You are trying to explain why

scum you

would not discard doc, but overlooking the fact they might have chosen a different role instead of doc.

[Marky Mark]

The above is an example of why I'm townreading Rem now though, a lot of his arguments come from "I'm town therefore..." rather than an objective view and it looks sincere to me, I see it a lot in newer players

I'm starting to think there could be some truth in this, flawed arguments are not necessarily scummy ones. I just really don't know tbh. The bottom line is that the claim is scummy regardless of experience, as has been discussed but not sure how much of the rest of my read is confbias based off that.

Talking about the thin line between newbscum/newbtown, xdfagent is another classic case. In a micro I played with him he was IC and claimed way earlier than needed so the thing about him being worried about getting lynched kinda checks out.

Why are you bringing this up? Do you have a problem with what I did?

This feels too self-aware, particularly given the lack of pressure.

I don't want to miss what could be the scum in plain sight, but I may end up moving my vote to one of the xdf/ac1983/aronis lurker gang if they don't pull their finger out soon and convince me otherwise. Not_mafia I don't really know how to sort since any scuminess is largely based off the slip and how do you follow up something like that?

[Marky Mark]

Hmm OK I can't see anything wrong with that, awesomeusername what was the issue you were trying to get at here?

[Marky Mark]

According to Setup's Discarded roles, we can assume that Lissa is anti-town.

Not sure if Scum, or just very inexperienced (or both).

[Marky Mark]

Not a massive fan of a not_mafia claim, if he's town it will reveal his role to the scum, and in the case that he is scum he could easily just think of something plausible anyway. Other than the slip his play seems pretty town, so I'm starting to wonder if people are voting for him simply in order to have a safe, easily justifyable vote. DarkLight's V/LA concerns me as it essentially gives him a free walk today, but not really sure what we can do about it.

I'm having a hard time reading xfdagent myself. Like a couple of things seem genuine in his posts but all of his stated scumreads are basically right after someone else expresses strong suspicion of the person. And both are supported by weird, not-so-good reasons. And I'm getting a vibe of "I'm making up my own reasons to suspect these people so it doesn't look like I'm sheeping" from him, while I also feel like he's kind of defending Lissa. Altogether, I think I'm leaning scum on him, but I'm pretty unsure.

This. I'm starting to come down on the side of newbscum with xdfagent, will wait to hear his response before doing anything to drastic though. Aronis, I would like to hear more from you too in the very near future. AC1983's reads list makes sense on the whole, although I would like to know why you are reading reinoe as null after what seemed like a very genuine mistake on his behalf following the bins claim. I'm starting to lose faith in my scumread on rem so will unvote and reassess.

UNVOTE:

[Marky Mark]

OK, I think first thing's first is for xdfagent to spill the beans on his info about not_mafia and then we can take things from there. 412 by him doesn't really make sense because he seems to be both claiming he has cleared not_mafia and also talking about reasons why he is unlikely to be scum, such as his discard - if he knew for sure he was town then saying stuff like "His discard doesnt sound scum to me." (which he says in the above post) doesn't make sense as you would know he isn't scum anyway.

415 by awesomeusername seems pushy, but the fact he backed down straight away after lissa responded rather than try to argue further it makes it seem more genuine.

Mod can we have a prod on Aronis please

- with deadline in 5 days I'm not happy with him slipping under the radar.

[Marky Mark]

This is kinda summing up what's already been said, but seeing as xdfagent has already implied he has an inno on not_mafia, it makes sense for him to claim and explain it so that we can keep the game moving forward and also to check xdfagent's logic given his posting style.

We are getting scarily close to deadline, so need to reach some sort of consensus. My top scumreads at the mo are #1 Aronis #2xdfagent (altho I want to hear his claim first and then re-assess as part of my scumread is from how he is claiming the inno on not_mafia but still reasoning about whether he is scum or not from other stuff in the game which makes no sense if the investigation was legit) #3rem. Aronis started the day with some wishy washy posting, and has since reverted to lurking hence why currently my top scumpick, but willing to be pragmatic due to the deadline. For the moment though

VOTE: Aronis

[Marky Mark]

Srsly?
So you think me catching scum was just some random gambit I made and I just happened to get lucky?

I think the fact that you caught Ki-Gi out was towny behaviour yes (although I think somebody would have caught Ki-Gi out over that slip eventually anyways), but equally you have been trying to coast off that today and have only come out of lurking to defend yourself which swings the balance of evidence over to you being scum. What are your current scumreads?

[Marky Mark]

Aronis do you really think its more likely there's a psychotrooper alive, or that xdfagent genuinely investigated not_mafia. That latter would seem more likely to me.

[Marky Mark]

Yeah, makes sense that he could be mistaken over the ability of his role to claim different factions. Hopefully he will actually post soon and fill us in on what his actual role is.

[Marky Mark]

Just finished work, will write something substantial when I get home.

[Marky Mark]

OK so deadline is scarily close now, and with Darklight/Reinoe away until after DL we are going to need 6/8 players voting the same way to get a lynch through which is going to be one heck of a top order. With this in mind I am happy to be fairly pragmatic in order to get a lynch through, but am not interested in lynching my townreads, which are Not_Mafia and AwesomeUserName.

xdfagent is infuriatingly continuing to sidestep around the nature of his claim, honestly there is a lot that bugs me about this claim from him such as the fact he half-claimed under little pressure, but then is worried about explaining his inno on N_M based on it giving scum information. I feel like there is a substantial language barrier here that is making it difficult to interact with him, but the motivation behind his play does not seem town. xdf, if you are reading this please stop messing us around and claim.

AC1983 has been doing well to fly under the radar, the hard townread on Rem frankly bothers me more than the lurking. It's one thing to not want discussion to get stuck on one point but the extent to which he went to defend him makes me think that unless he's got an inno on rem (which would be unlikely given the setup) he knows rem's alignment for sure and is whiteknighting or defending a buddy. Would be happy to see swing today.

As to Rem himself, he's been pretty quiet over the last week or so. He seems fairly genuine on one hand, but on other hand claim is still as scummy as it was on D1 and I dislike the way he bases his defense on "if I was scum, I would play like X" arguments, which tend to be a fairly reliable scumtell. I'm happy with lynching him and seems like a fairly feasible wagon.

Aronis I still think is scummy, but I seem to be fairly alone in this opinion, so I'm happy to drop this for the remainder of today as deadline is so close.

Lissa IDK, the vote after the hammer yesterday was a blatant attempt to get town cred, but hasn't really done anything scummy since so I don't mind a lynch as a last resort on her but would prefer not to.

I think that pretty much covers everyone who is not long term v/la. Will VOTE: AC1983 for now, of him and Rem his wagon seems more likely to gain enough votes for a lynch by deadline.

[Marky Mark]

Phone posting, seems legit, full steam to lynch ac1983 then.

[Marky Mark]

I'm already voting AC1983. Will keep an eye on the thread in the hours leading up to deadline tomorrow but agreed if we cannot get a lynch through then I have lost a great deal of faith in humanity.

[Marky Mark]

went through the votecounts to see if there was anybody who had been voting lissa yesterday who looked scummy, but other than not_mafia who is very likely town due to the investigations on him and acfan, it was just awesomeusername who seemed very towny.

I'm thinking acfan's hard defending rem when he (rem) was under pressure is probably the biggest lead to go on right now. I wouldn't go as far as to say its hard evidence as he could have been whiteknighting, but its certainly a good place to start.

VOTE: rem

xdf - what result did you get last night from your investigation?

[Marky Mark]

Mark, your Reminiscence case is interesting. However, acfan was defending him so vigorously that I'm having a hard time believing that he can be scum with acfan.

Okay. Reminiscence is obvtown.

CAN WE PLEASE. MOVE ON. FROM THE REMINISCENCE ROLE SELECTION THING.

He's town. If you think he's scum, get over it. And if you try to push his lynch after this I'm going to have to assume you are scum pushing a mislynch.

Remi, NM are hard town reads.

Of course, he could be scum, but I'm not used to seeing such hard buddying. Then again, that could be the thought processes behind it, creating a WIFOM situation and all.

I get what your saying, acfan's play didn't seem particularly nuanced which is why I am reluctant to overlook the stuff in plain sight. Are you caught up yet, and if so who are your scumreads?

while I remember

@Mod - V/LA from 08/09/2014 till 11/09/2014

Going abroad with work and will have little to no spare time or internet

[Marky Mark]

I'm thinking acfan's hard defending rem when he (rem) was under pressure is probably the biggest lead to go on right now. I wouldn't go as far as to say its hard evidence as he could have been whiteknighting, but its certainly a good place to start.

I don't know what's the point of presenting your lead If you give people a counter to your lead in the exact same post

Mafia is not black and white - the fact a scum player was hard defending you is scummy, the fact there is an alternative explanation (whiteknighting) makes it less scummy. The hard part is working which of those two explanations is more likely - as I said in my earlier post given acfan's play him defending a scumbuddy seems like the simplest explanation.

Talking of explanations, the case for not_mafia being SK seems a little contrived. Given that he's not mafia or wolf and his play has been fairly towny it seems more likely that he is town and just made a genuine mistake.

xdfagent, I will ask you again to tell us who you investigated last night

Can Marky Mark please claim? Will explain all of this after he does.

I'm happy to claim if the majority wishes but am somewhat reluctant given that besides the fact that I think you could well be scum it would seriously reduce the usefulness of my role if it was out in the open.

[Marky Mark]

Rem - because pushing ignoring the evidence against your case tends to be what scum do - they want to see that player lynched regardless. I pointed out the two possibilities and explained that I believed the first to be more likely. It's a weighing up the evidence thing.

[Marky Mark]

Aronis' facepalm seems fairly genuine, although cannot confirm whether I was RB'ed or not as I don't have a night action, darklight idk at the moment - his catch up post seemed fairly town but I don't like his safe vote on not_mafia yesterday and his prolonged abscence. Agreed that a reread may be in order - I was scumreading Rem/Aronis but now not so sure about Aronis being scum after the above.

[Marky Mark]

@Mark, do you find my absence scummy?

Clearly being v/la is not alignment indicative, but the fact you were V/LA for a large portion of yesterday and were v/la for a decent part of d1 too makes it hard to get a good read on you. My gut feel was that you were laying low but that probably isn't a fair point to make as you could well have had genuine rl stuff to deal with.

@Marky Mark: So let's say that I was mysteriously killed right now and flipped town. Who do you plan to go after next?

Like I said previously, I would have said arnois but not so sure any more. xdfagent is another potential scum, certainly if I was cop the first thing I would be doing at the start of a new day is telling everyone my result from last night which gives me some cause to doubt his claim. Outside of that I would have to reread/look through the posts of the dead players. This is a very hypothetical question though as you could be the last remaining scum.

[Marky Mark]

I believe he's a cop, I don't necessarily believe he's a town cop at this point

I hadn't considered this, I had assumed a cop would be town but not necessarily the case in this setup. The speed with which xdfagent has shot from nothing to L-2 concerns me however.

Can you give me some reads, Rem?

Yeah this would be good. I still think rem is the scum in plain sight with both the VT claim and being hard-townread by a scum.

[Marky Mark]

Why did you inspect Lissa?

This, a hundred times over. Lissa had been semi-cleared by her claim due to the fact that Not_Mafia was able to verify that he had been roleblocked. As town there seems little motivation for that action, whereas for a scum claiming they targeted a player who died that night (bc it means you don't have to fake a result) is fairly common. Would really like to see a reads list from xdfagent so as to try and see where he stands in relation to other possible scum.

UNVOTE:
Will do this for now, pending hearing what xdfagent has to say. I would certainly like a readslist from him at any rate before anybody thinks about hammering. My main reservation about this wagon is Darklight's/Aronis's votes, with the former passing it off as pressure and the latter as a policy lynch. Own your suspicion. As to Rem, I am still waiting on a reads list - I feel we are in danger of missing the scum in plain sight but nobody seems to share my views.

[Marky Mark]

Hi all, back from V/LA! Have skimmed the pages since I left, so will claim now and write something more substantial tomorrow after I've had a more in depth look through as I am shattered and have work tomorrow morning. I'm a town 2 shot bulletproof - role card is 2 shot BP Serial Killer and alignment is VT. I chucked werewolf mason. I don't get told if I have been shot, so that doesn't really narrow things down in terms of factions. Off the top of my head 583 by Rem while misguided looked super-towny motivation-wise. Scum very likely within the Reinoe/Rem/Aronis block by virtue of PoE so will examine those 3 in more detail.

[Marky Mark]

Meant to write this last night, but wifi issues

Looking back to the xdfagent wagon from yesterday, the votes that stuck out to me as potential scum were Darklight/Aronis. Darklight for the way he tried to pass it off as pressure and Aronis for justifying it as a policy lynch and then trying to hedge his bets with stuff like 570. 554 stood out by reione for being an actual well thought-out case. Townpoints to him.

I'm pretty sure the strongman isn't Aronis or reinoe due to claim shenanigans. In fact I'm heavily leaning towards DarkLight. Massclaim first, though. We might be in MYLO.

This seems pretty accurate. If Reionoe is scum, I certainly think it is unlikely he's strongman. Aronis maybe, but darklight seems the most likely.

Targeted Aronis Night 1, Not_Mafia Night 2, Aronis Night 3. I pseudo-crumbed the first two by talking about them in my first post the next day. Nobody targeted any of those people on the nights I watched them, disappointingly.

Heh, I'm blind.

Reinoe, I'm not pleased that your first post in a potential MyLo is a vote. I think no lynch is probably a very viable option, as long as Marky Mark doesn't claim that would nullify that.

I don't agree with the forum convention of No Lynching in potential MyLo. And I will never be convinced that Rem is town.

But then given the really towny post by rem I mentioned in my previous post the tunelling here is a little scummy. Lynch vs no lynch wise I would like to hear your reasoning. I am kinda sitting on the fence right now as would narrow things down a little and let awesome watch someone, but could potentially lose us the game if multiple factions involved and theyve just happened to have overlaspping kills so far.

@Rem: I was thinking about that. I can't decide whether it would be better to govern an obvious town, like me, because it would probably remove me from the lynch pile, or a secondary suspect, in case reinoe's lying and can't actually govern. Actually, if we make reinoe govern a suspect, it should be whoever's most likely to be his scumbuddy (aside from the agreed-upon lynch). We'll need to run the governed player up to L-0 in order to actually confirm the govern. Wait, actually:

Surely we get Reinoe to govern a potential scumbuddy, so that if he's telling the truth he's cleared of strongman, and if he has fakeclaimed we have a decent chance of lynching scum?

@aun I meant scum lies within aronis/darklight/reionoe by poe in my previous post. I'm reading you as very town, and I'm starting to think rem is probably town too, so that is who is left.

Overall, I think darklight is probably the most likely to be strongman but I don't want to rule aronis out yet - certainly not before he has claimed his actual cards. Will not vote until we have decided what we are doing with regard to stuff like no lynching or triggering reionoe's governor

[Marky Mark]

In Mylo we can throw votes around without worry of a quicklynch.
In MyLo scum has less influence on the discussion because it's four townies (who's opinions are honest) vs two scum (who's opinions are dishonest). Furthermore since this is "____ Idea Mafia", if we "no lynch" we're just serving up a PR for the scum to kill.

This doesn't really make sense - surely the larger proportion of scum to town there are, the easier they will be to find statisticly. Also, scum will NK a PR anyways after we lynch (providing they are semi-competent) so this is an odd argument to make. Don't get me wrong, I can think of some good reasons to lynch over no-lynch, but your explanation don't really make sense from a town pov.

With regard to Reinoe, I think it is fairly likely he's a governor (or at least has governor as one of his cards) but a Reionoe/darklight scumteam could certainly make sense, with darklight as strongman and reionoe as governor. You mention 489 to the contrary aun, but this looks to me like darklight is just commenting on the bins thing because it was big enough that people would expect him to do so - he doesn't really seem to follow it up much afterwards.

I am worried about the situation where reinoe is governor, but also scum as in this case if we go through with the plan to lynch someone and have him trigger his governor he could simply not trigger his role and let an innocent die, which would win him the game if we are in mylo.

The optimum play to me would be to lynch darklight and have reionoe save him with governor. If reionoe is scum and doesn't save him then we lynch the top scum candidate. If reionoe saves him we vote no-lynch, which would confirm reionoe isn't the strongman, and narrow the pool down. The only player I can think who would be strongman if it wasn't darklight would be aun. He has been super-town all game but unlike reionoe and aronis his role hasn't been corroborated by his play. You mentioned you crumbed your role, perhaps you could point this out? It still seems to me that the smart money is on it being Darklight though.

[Marky Mark]

Yeah, but the way governor works according to the role PMs on the wiki (which the mod linked us to in 590) is that reinoe posts "Govern: name" in bold in the thread and then whoever he picked can't be lynched.

My bad, I've played games before where it was used during twilight to cancel a lynch and I jumped to conclusions. Best course of action seems to be to wait for the mod to confirm the issue then. This also makes your point about reinoe governing me make more sense.

The crumb by you seems fairly legit - why did you choose to watch the players you did?

[Marky Mark]

@aun - no I did not crumb. I don't really see the point of it except in certain circumstances. Certainly as a bp the last thing I wanted to do was let the scum know my role (as they then are not going to waste a kill on me). This is why I was so reluctant to claim when aronis pressured me yesterday.

Perhaps more to the point breadcrumbing doesn't really prove anything, for example darklight could well still be strongman and have had his fakeclaim sorted from the start.

623 seems super genuine where the reasoning is explained. *twiddles thumbs and waits for mod to answer questions*

[Marky Mark]

@reinoe: You haven't made any comments on whether you think we should use your govern today and that's bothering me. Do you think it's worth using it? If so, who would you like to govern? Seems silly not to give you a say in your own action.

It's because I don't care.

My enthusiasm for this game has been greatly diminished since I can't govern myself. The only reason why I chose a town card is because I'm tired of being mislynched as town so I figured I'd be able to save myself. I just assumed the info in the wiki applied to this game but it doesn't.

I missed out on being a werewolf because of that misunderstanding.

For some reason Reminiscence isn't getting lynched ever despite her obvious lies and anti-town card selections. I'm going for Aronis but that's not whom I want to lynch most.

The apathy is not going to help us. Do you think either of rem or aronis are likely to be the strongman, or do you just find them scummy in general?

Now the mod has cleared things up, I think we push on with having reinoe govern someone. He is very likely telling the truth about his role, but there is no harm in checking, and it let's us narrow down the strongman suspects.

[Marky Mark]

Reinoe could you answer my question please?

Do you think either of rem or aronis are likely to be the strongman, or do you just find them scummy in general?

Well that's Reionoe's role confirmed - if I had to put money on a player being strongman given the current info I would go for a darklight lynch, but best option given the even player count and potential MYLO seems to be VOTE: No Lynch (unless I am missing some glaring reason why we shouldn't?)

[Marky Mark]

Sorry in advance for the wall.

I find Aronis in the "lean scum" territory. And Rem in the Definitely scum territory. In my view this means Rem is probably the strongman with Aronis maybe being the strongman.

Rem being strongman is certainly plausible role wise, alignment wise I cannot see how 583 could come from a scum perspective. I have both you and aun as townleans but your scumreads are complete opposites, which is puzzling to say the least.

There were a couple of bits in aun's wall that pinged my scumdar:

My primary suspects are Marky Mark and DarkLight, but they've been playing well.

I'm in a similar place with my read on darklight - his posts seem fairly towny but I find myself thinking he could well be strongman by virtue of poe...

I'm getting increasingly paranoid of Marky Mark. Given how he helped get the ac1983fan lynch going and his natural play, I don't think he's a werewolf or on team-scum at all, really. I think if he's scum he's third party; he did claim an SK card plus a generic VT card (though he was almost last to claim so claiming safely would've been unnecessary). Marky Mark is playing more how I would expect scum to play today than DarkLight is. Nonetheless, he's seemed pretty town all game so hopefully my paranoia is misguided.

...but your stance on myself is rather inconsistent - you list me as a top scumread, but then go on to talk about how I've "seemed pretty town all game". The point about me being SK seems a bit of a reach (particularly given there's only been 1 NK for the last couple of nights). It could be paranoia, but it feels like you are trying to avoid writing off a potential lynch target, in a similar way to how you discussed how Not_Mafia might be SK back in 499.

I don't really have that much of a preference between lynching or no lynching today. If anything, I'd rather lynch today because it's pretty likely I won't be alive tomorrow, and I actually have some reads I like for once so I want to have some influence on the lynch. You can always no-lynch tomorrow if you like.

The bit about no lynching tomorrow is an odd sentiment - the whole point of no-lynching is to enable us to have the best chance of catching scum, doing so today gives us an advantage both straight away and in the following day (if there is more than 1 scum), whereas if we wait until tomorrow we may have already lost.

Perhaps slightly more importantly :

I won't be able to get into this game until Thursday though.

It's now thursday. What are your thoughts on the current scenario?

[Marky Mark]

Plan:
lynch one of me/DLA today.
If we mislynch, aun watch aronis while aronis roll a dice between roleblocking Marky Mark and the one who didn't get lynched.

As misguided as this plan is, the fact that Rem is so willing to lay down his life seems town - scum tend to try and avoid dying at any cost.

@Marky Mark: My point was that I think you unlikely to be in group scum. But yeah, you're number 2 on my list right now by PoE even though your play has been pretty good. You leaving options open was actually one of the things that was bothering me, so I guess if my play looks like that, too, it's certainly something town could do. I see your point about no-lynching though. I mostly want a lynch today because I expect to die tonight so I won't be able to have much of an impact on the rest of the game.

If you are indeed town and are killed, surely your views will have more impact as they will be coming from a conftown as opposed to a potential scum? Ironically, my townread of you has decreased somewhat over the course of today so you being killed (or not) in the event we no lynch would help me tie down my reads. I've read through the middle bit of the quoted paragraph and it seems a thinly veiled way of saying "if you overlook the scummy thing that I've done, I'll overlook you doing a similar thing earlier", although I could be reading too much into this.

As to no-lynching in general, I am starting to grow increasingly suspicious of those who are strongly against it. Our next lynch could win or lose us the game and frankly I want to be sure we have all the information on the table when we make it, because right now I am really starting to second guess myself. The argument in particular about there being less townies around to influence the discussion is rubbish - it is far outweighed by the fact there are less mislynch targets around. I am genuinely worried the scum are trying to encourage us to throw the game away by rushing into a desicion.

[Marky Mark]

This way scum must either kill me, removing a suspect, which is good, or let me use my watch, which is also good.

This basically hits the nail on the head. At the start of the day, I was mildly inclined towards a no-lynch but equally I was thinking "aun is obvtown so they will just kill him and we won't have learnt anything new". Fast forward to now, and I am less confident in my townread of you which in my eyes is a very good reason to go through with the no lynch. As to the wall against no-lynching, as I have said before the fact you have gone to such lengths to argue against what is generally accepted as optimal play is making me paranoid that you have something to hide.

Deadline wise, we have a day and a bit left. I am kinda worried about being rushed into a bad decision if we decide to lynch, particularly given stuff like 651 and 656, showing some players are overly eager to rush into a lynch without thinking things through. If we do have to lynch, I feel Darklight would be our best bet, but I don't want to potentially throw away all our hard work by rushing into a decision when there was no need to.

[Marky Mark]

What are we doing tomorrow after the no lynch today and serve up a townie on a silver platter? Do we no-lynch again and again and again? This no-lynch is looking dumber as deadline approaches. I'm suspicious of everyone suggesting it.

So this is really scummy, the logic is completely flawed. You are pushing for a lynch over a nl for the wrong reasons, and the fact you were pretty easy about lynching either aronis or darklight suggests to me you are just trying to push a lynch through at all costs.

@aun, well the fact that you could be the strongman. Play wise, you and darklight have both been towny (although you morso than him) but could both potentially be the strongman by poe. I'd rather not flip a coin and guess if there is no need to, especially as it could spell game over should we get it wrong.

[Marky Mark]

@aun with regard to 666, if you don't get NK'ed then we can use a combination of your watch and aronis's roleblock to work out if you have been telling the truth about your role. Also, regardless of who is NK'ed they will then be conftown, which gives us more info on whether darklight or yourself is the strongman (or rem, although that seems unlikely). With response to what town-you should do, I agree there is nothing more that you can do but surely you can see how a no-lynch helps the rest of us to sort you one way or another. Perhaps I'm just being paranoid

[Marky Mark]

• DarkLightA + someone else
  
• awesomeusername + someone else
  
  
• DarkLightA
  
• awesomeusername
  
• Marky Mark
  
• Reminiscence

This is the scenario that worries me, because while not the most likely case in my mind, it would spell instant loss for the town. A no-lynch isn't guarenteed to confirm or deny it, but there is a decent chance we will be better informed on its likelihood than we are at present.

[Marky Mark]

@Aun - OK, I will be level with you. I've explained why I fell no-lynching is the optimum play here. My genuine fear is that we are rushing into a decision without the need to be doing so, and the fact you have been pushing so hard to lynch today and the impending deadline is adding to my fear that you could be a scum player desperate to get a mislynch through before it is too late. If you are in fact town, a no lynch would be able to confirm it by you watching aronis and him roleblocking you 1/2 of the time and the fact you seem keen to avoid doing this is giving me cause for concern. However, like much of the game so far nobody seems to be paying much attention to anything that I say. If the rest of the town are completely set on lynching then I guess we get darklight to post his death reads and cross our fingers, but if we have just handed the game to the scum on the plate becuase we were too impatient to no-lynch and play things out then I will not be happy

[Marky Mark]

Obviously I think No-Lynch is bullshit at this point and A.U.N.'s plan is absolute garbage. It's a terrrible plan.

It is exactly attitudes like this that worry me about rushing into a deadline lynch.

I still think DarkLight is scum. Fair warning, if Rem puts him at L-1, I'll probably hammer. No-lynch is alright, too, though.

This is the one thing I'm really struggling to fathom about Aun's play today. He's been making all the right noises about supporting a no-lynch while simultaneously trying his best to get a lynch pushed through behind the sceneses, which is making it very hard to understand his true motives.

pedit : how the heck are we less likely to lynch scum tomorrow when we will be in exactly the same position as today but with more info and less people to mislynch. This confirms my fears I had started to write up above. Aun is smart enough to see that a no-lynch is optimal here, and the fact he is slyly trying to push a lynch through regardless is really starting to concern me.

pedit2 : we'll only mess this up if we rush into stupid decisions, which is completely avoidable in our scenario

[Marky Mark]

@Reinoe - given Aun's two-facedness and grandstanding about supporting a no-lynch while trying to push the darklight lynch through simulataneously I'm starting to think that we are playing straight into scum's hands. I know you disagree about no-lynching but if rem is indeed scum him hammering could spell game over. A no-lynch would help us narrow down which of aun/darklight is the strongman. I would feel a lot safer if you at least unvoted while we sorted this out.

pedit : thats basically the basis of my scumread on aun, he seems like a very capable player and the fact he is not following the optimal play for town is really suspicious (as is the fact he places a vote on the wagon and then decides to take time off so that he cannot be scrutinized for it)

[Marky Mark]

A no-lynch guarantees that a townie gets killed. Especially if Aronis Roleblocks me.

We have an even number of players, so scum still need the sane number of mislynches to win but there being fewer townies means we have less probability of mislynching. Also the bit about fewer townie voices is not accurate - from a townie flipping when they are killed we can take everything they have already said as from a conftown perspective and gives us info based on how people interacted with them.

As to what we would learn, I'm literally 50/50 torn between aun and darklight now (with rem being an outside chance) and the info from who dies/results of watch and roleblock would help clear this up one way or another. I don't want to toss a coin to decide between the two of them, which is effectively what lynching now would be.

pedit : ok, somebody else got there first

[Marky Mark]

Look at this from my perspective. DarkLight is almost certainly scum. If we lynch today, we'll lynch DarkLight. If we lynch tomorrow, there's a much larger chance that we lynch someone else. Ergo, we're more likely to hit scum today. Does that make sense? I do realize we're more likely to hit scum tomorrow from your perspective.

The problem is that this is what you would say regardless of whether you are scum or town.

The thing is, in this scenario, scum won't let me clear myself. This can be prevented simply by killing Aronis. I don't actually think the information you'll get tonight will be useful. Do you have any objections to this?

Why are you making the assumption that Aronis isn't scum? In the event that he isn't though and is killed you will be watching him so we will be able to determine his killer. You could lie about this I guess but that would at least narrow it down to 2 people maximum.

On top of this if aronis dies and flips town that gives us a ton of info, which means that we can then look at how you and darklight interacted with him when trying to decide who to lynch tomorrow. Actually, now I think about this, it wouldn't hurt to have the time to go through your ISO's in light of the flips we now know either. That would certainly be better than the reinoe method of baying for a lynch at all costs. If you are indeed town, you would have nothing to hide by no-lynching, but your continuing reluctance to do so is starting to make me think otherwise.

[Marky Mark]

So Aun was town then - that sucks . Two scum left means we are in lylo, so please no rushed votes or the remaining wolves could quickhammer.

Talking of the wolves, I believe I have found one of them, although I have to admit I have not been completely honest with you all about my role. You may have been wondering why I was so keen for a no lynch yesterday - well here's why:

I am in fact not a strongman, but a

Town Seer.

I had not found any wolves by yesterday, and so was keen to push the no lynch through in order to get another chance at finding scum before we potentially lost the game. My one shot bp claim was to keep the scum off my back until I got a useful result, as if they had worked out what my role was I'd have been top of the NK list for sure. This is also why I went to such lengths to explain why I didn't breadcrumb - what would be the point of breadcrumbing a fakeclaim? As to my cards, they are Town Seer/VT/Werewolf Mason.

You will be pleased to know that extra night to find scum did come in useful after all (and hence why I'm now claiming). Last night I decided to investigate rem after he was trying so hard to avoid hammering while not advocating a no lynch, and suprise suprise he came up

gulity

. As to the last wolf, I expect it is darklight with an outside chance of aronis. As to which of them is the strongman, I don't know but we should prbably try and work it out todya before we lynch one of them.

[Marky Mark]

Two scum left means we are in lylo, so please no rushed votes or the remaining wolves could quickhammer.

How do you know that there are two scums left? From which information did you arrive at this conclusion?

Well I know you're scum because I got a guilty on you, and darklight is almost certainly scum because you didn't hammer him when you had the chance.

Last night I decided to investigate rem after he was trying so hard to avoid hammering while not advocating a no lynch, and suprise suprise he came up gulity.

And yet you're not voting me! Surprise surprise.

Unlike some people, I don't just rush into votes in a lylo situation.

As to the last wolf, I expect it is darklight with an outside chance of aronis.

You do realize that if there are two scums with me being one of them DLA is automatically the second scum, right? Since you think there are two groupscum left. If you actually had a guilty on me you somehow have a definite knowledge that there are two wolves left, Aronis should be confirmed town fypov.

I don't understand what you are trying to say here.

As to which of them is the strongman, I don't know but we should prbably try and work it out todya before we lynch one of them.

This is not the attitude of cop-who-got-guilty. Cop with a guilty should be pushing for his guilty's lynch first.

Again, poor scum logic. I would rather lynch whichever of you is the strongman first so that aronis can rb the other one and prevent any more townies dying

That was a very scummy post. Especially the assumption of two scum.

I'd like to hear back from Marky on what other investigative results he got previous nights. He must have had several.

So night one I investigated bins after the whole governor thing but got an inno. Night two I investigated reinoe but was roleblocked. Night 3 I investigated reinoe again and this time got an inno.

You are welcome to go ISO me, I have nothing to hide. Meanwhile Rem's guilt is clear from his panicked response and omgus vote on me. Darklight's post also confirms him as scum in my eyes. If he was town he would be way more outraged at being called scum.

[Marky Mark]

VOTE: Marky Mark

[Marky Mark]

KILL: Aronis

[Marky Mark]

I'm through with this rubbish, Zaicon can pick up the pieces.

[Marky Mark]

Thanks all for a very enjoyable game, especially Zaicon for modding it

Thanks to the rest of the wolves, especially darklight. With 4 scum and a vig the odds were stacked against the town, despite Kigi and acfan doing their best to get themselves lynched. In hindsight the bus on acfan was a mistake by me as I got almost zero towncred from it and it seriously endangered our chances of winning. I thought the town played very well and worked together as a team. The only mislynch was xdfagent and that was largely his own fault. Special mention goes to Aun for continuously flip-flopping on whether to no lynch and thus keeping me on edge all of d4.

I usually suck at scum, so despite preferring town I decided to roll scum here to get some practice - any advice is always welcome! You are all very welcome to read the scum qt - most of it is me and darklight discussing the best way to get me lynched today.

[Marky Mark]

Yeah sorry marquis It was more the fact that I knew you are a pretty capable town player and I was worried you would see through us if we left you alive too long.