Mini 1611: Wet Fever Dream Mafia. Ended.

[KingdomAces]

VOTE: theaceofspades
More obviously not a jester.

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You win if you are the first player to be lynched.

Um, nope. I'm sure there are ways to ensure that the Jester isn't lynched, but no lynching isn't one of them.

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Jon, you probably shouldn't be just saying everything that comes to mind, because that gives scum the option to just agree with the IC. Not that I actually know how to play that role despite having some variant rather frequently, but...

About Anatole, due to jester WIFOM it would probably be best to just assume that we shouldn't lynch him for now. As much as I like reading into WIFOM, the risks here are just too great.

Zazie, with all these obv not jesters around I don't think we really need anything more than scumhunting. Also if worst comes to worst we can just lynch Jon. Letting the jester win would still probably be better than that, but it's still an option.

Also, I believe TSO when he says he didn't realize it.

[KingdomAces]

I was more using Jon as an example of a guaranteed non-jester lynch. I don't think he's a good lynch option, but if there's one then there's a good chance that there's another. I'm also not saying that I think Anatole isn't scum/jester, I'm just saying that for day one, there is a higher chance of him being a jester for the sole reason that he's being WIFOM'y about it. That means that as things stand he shouldn't be lynched day 1, and we've got at least two full days to determine his alignment.

Spoilers: TSO's plan is to have Jon randomize the lynch target and then take the 91.67% chance that the target isn't the jester. Yeah that's a good idea, but it still leaves a chance of lynching the jester, or otherwise lynching someone we don't want to lynch for other reasons, seeing as this is a non-VT game. Taking people out of the lynch pool only increases the chance of the jester getting lynched. This is probably a better last resort than lynching Jon, but it's still a last resort, not breaking the game in the slightest. I think I know why he didn't want to talk about it until later in the day, but in my opinion even mentioning it in the first place has the exact same effect as actually saying the whole thing. For now, I think we should put this behind us as something that we're probably not going to do, but can if the situation is dire enough, and not bother thinking about it again until deadline approaches.

Anatole, what I said to Jon about not being too forthcoming with things because he's already confirmed works in reverse as well. Engaging him is kind of pointless, since I don't see a way you can get meaningful reactions out of him.

[KingdomAces]

Short version: The more we talk about how to deal with the jester, the more information the jester is getting on how to beat us. So stop it, and start looking for scum.

Elmo, are you confirming your RVS vote for the heck of it, or do you actually think that Who is scum now? I personally think that Who so far has just been making a lot of sense with his mechanics discussion. While that in and of itself doesn't mean anything, to me it seems as if he's working off of a mindset of someone who actually wants town to succeed.

Ika, if your role is negative utility, why would you want to use it at all?

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@everyone not KingdomAce. Grill him for me till I get back for his lousy posts.

For your information, I'm done talking about anything related to the jester or Anatole for at least a week, there's nothing else worth saying about either of them until we have more information. If you want to grill me on anything else though, please do.

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Elmo, here's my problems with your strategy: If we were to lynch randomly, then we lose out on an entire day's worth of information. Also, how are the rest of us supposed to trust you that Who isn't the jester and that you aren't just trying to railroad us into a jester lynch while pretending that you are choosing randomly?

We're not going to be lynching randomly. Stop waiting for the game to start on day two. It starts now.

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That's because I'm really bad at trying to make stuff happen, and whenever I try it end up backfiring. I'll look for links if you want me to, but I'm not going to say any more on the subject for out of game/meta reasons.

The answer Ika gave was that he just feels like trolling someone. Not only is that alignment neutral, but the fact that he says that the major effect would be to piss the person off means it probably won't have an impact on the game. If he does end up using it and it does have an impact other than trolling someone, we can easily pressure him for it then. Right now there's nothing more we can do on the topic.

I asked Elmo that because I thought he was actually calling Who scum. When it became clear that he wasn't I shifted my thinking accordingly.

I have had my reasons for every single thing I've said so far this game. Though this is all I want to say now I don't want day one to end before everything else is apparent.

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I'm just going to say that Honey Bee and DarkLight are probably town. Why? Gut. Also because they are actually trying despite all the crap that is happening right now.

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That is still trying

way

harder than most people here are.

I don't have any actual scumreads right now. Gun to my head I'd say Elmo and Spades seem the least townie, with Bins and ika being second tier

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Suspecting isn't exactly the right word. When I said least townie, that's exactly what I meant. You have done absolutely nothing to make me think you are town so far, where the way Who contributed to the mechanics discussion sounds somewhat more likely to come from town than scum in my opinion.

Anatole is a non-factor right now, he has nothing to do with any of that.

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I fully intend to claim before the end of D1 regardless of what other people want to do. I just think we should get as much as we possibly can out of today before that though.

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Is that all you care about?

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Bins:

Suspecting isn't exactly the right word. When I said least townie, that's exactly what I meant. You have done

absolutely nothing

[fairly little] to make me think you are town so far,

On top of that, how can I be sheeping when I don't think anyone else has stated that idea in the first place?

Spades, if you are saying that town should fakeclaim, just no. Scum are the only ones who need to worry about that. If anything, no VT's is the exact reason why we should be massclaiming, not the other way around.

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Spades, you didn't say why you think town fakeclaiming is a good idea, because it never is.

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Yeah, DLA's town.

Ika is at the very least very anti-town for wanting to trollhammer when it's been stated by almost everyone that we are nowhere near ready to end the day yet.

I'm actually starting to wonder how much can actually get done at this rate. Looking at the playerlist, Zazie is the only person who hasn't contributed enough yet for me to be fine with moving on.

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We're not going to figure out who's scum on the first day. The information from the jester flipping should be at least a bit helpful, and I have quite a few townreads to make up for my lack of scumreads.

Also, as you said, the thread is getting dull. I'm not entirely sure how much more information can be gained at our present trajectory.

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NO! If you want to be a troll, join a roleplaying group. This is mafia. Play it.

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I said move on, not come to a lynch. As I've already said, I want to claim before the end of D1. I'm starting to think that my claim might spark more than I thought it would, so if I'm right about that then I probably should be dawdling less than I planned to.

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I actually think I might know where TSO is coming from here, seeing as I think I have the same role he does. If that's true, I'd actually be completely fine with lynching Bins. Of course though, I'd want to have more proof than just a theory before lynching someone who still could be the jester.

TSO, are you willing to claim in order to get this lynch? If so, I'd want you to claim before I do because of reasons that I'll talk about afterwards.

Though, you know, it would be nice if replacement Zazie got here first.

[KingdomAces]

Same chance as lynching randomly.

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No, nothing random.

DLA, because it's a guaranteed not jester.

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So what do percentages have to do with anything? 25%, or 33% from our POV?

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I'm fairly sure we have the same role now, and if that's true then there's absolutely no reason not to claim as soon as STD makes a content post. And I do think my numbers are accurate, for reasons.

DLA, if we don't lynch the jester, it's suicide replaces all scum kills that would occur that night. If there are multiple killing sources, not lynching the jester has a major numerical advantage. If there's only one, it's still better to have a kill that's at least partially directed by town than one that's chosen by the scum.

[KingdomAces]

...all you're doing is making me want to lynch you tomorrow.

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But what if the lynch pool is {scum, town, town, town}, and lynching between them isn't random? Also that math ignores the fact that scum flat out can choose who the best kill is. If it isn't obvious enough by now, I have a plan and I have had a plan since the day opened. Since talking with TSO it's only gotten better. I know what I'm doing.

[KingdomAces]

Actually, I changed my mind. As an extra security measure I'd want Bins to claim after STD posts, not TSO. It should offer the same results, but takes away the chance that scum TSO is pushing for the jester lynch by knowing where I'm coming from.

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Hi STD. Don't worry about the jester for now, just worry about finding scum.

Honey Bee, Bins is guaranteed from TSO's point of view, and I'm 90% sure he's telling the truth. For everyone else there is still a chance, but it's exceedingly minor. If Bins claims what I'm expecting her to, then the chance that they're lying goes down to like 2%.

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I reeeeallly don't want to claim.

Why not?

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...Okay, yeah. that wasn't what what I was expecting at all.

TSO, does this make sense to you and I'm just reading things wrong?

Full explanation after this is answered.

[KingdomAces]

Okay, I guess we're not the same role after all.

I'm a neighbor. It should be obvious who with from my early game play. I would just say it, but I'm kind of interested to see if it is as obvious to everyone else as it is to me.

Since the Jester PM is written in the OP, and it mentions absolutely nothing about having private communication with someone else both myself and my neighbor are confirmed not to be the jester unless the mod lied. I asked him, and he said he didn't. Therefore, by all accounts the day one lynch pretty much has to be one of us. I had thought that TSO/Bins were a neighbor paring as well from the conversation I was having with TSO, and whenever there are two neighbor pairings in the same game, there is exactly one scum among them, but apparently we're not actually that lucky this time.

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Who, in theory yeah, but in practice what I said earlier is almost always true.

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I'm feeling really meh right now. I got so exited when I thought that TSO/Bins were another neighbor pairing meaning that there would be absolutely no reason to lynch outside of us, that now I'm just feeling bad about everything again.

I personally don't really trust Anatole, and I still would prefer if one of us two were the lynch, but I do see the arguments against that.

I'll do a full game rundown when I'm feeling less depressed,

so see you next year

.

[KingdomAces]

The jester role PM is in the OP. I double checked with the mod, and he said that the jester role PM would be identical to that one, which doesn't mention being a neighbor at all.

Anything other than complete random lynching pretty much guarantees a town lynch anyway, so if we're not going to just lynch randomly, one of us two is really the best option.

[KingdomAces]

If we're randomizing, it should be done with random.org's list randomizer, first one on the list gets lynched. No claims, no questions asked. If you allow claims, then you have a 0% chance of lynching scum. No exclusions other than the IC either. Yeah I'm town, and it's looking like Anatole is as well, but it's not confirmed, even assuming we are town we have useless roles aside from knowing we're not the jester in a no VT game. Exclusions just leads to a much riskier lynch for possibly decreasing the chance to lynch town.

DLA, you are massively understating the value of allowing the scum to get a kill, or possibly more in the case of multiball, when otherwise an anti-town role would die while keeping whoever scum wanted to kill alive for another day. If you honestly think a 40% chance or less is worth risking anything over, then you've obviously never played an SRPG before.

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I posted in the neighbor topic that I thought that one of us should be the first lynch about ten minutes after my first post of the game. My double-checking with Bob actually occurred almost exactly two days, 18 hours later. I also said not to mention anything about our role until late in the game day, in order to attempt to get scum to push the jester without them knowing that there was an easy out.

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Why not? It's not like it actually matters right now. I'll move my vote once we agree on what we want to do.

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But I don't want the day to end without everyone being ready for it to end. Aside from that, I proposed one of {Myself, Anatole}, so it's not like my vote is just locked on him anyway. Anatole's at L-2 now and there's still some arguments from both sides. Also, the IC hasn't publicly voted on something yet. I'm not making my vote relevant until deadline or until all of that is sorted out.

DLA, you're starting to make me think that you're the jester.

[KingdomAces]

DLA, you're not factoring in town power roles in a no-VT game.

Anyway, if I don't do the ISO's now, I never will. Any questions I should answer while doing so would be appreciated, just don't rush me.

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Half an hour later and I've still pretty much got nothing except the desire to call STD Wolfyface. I'm just going to go to sleep and do this later hopefully.

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We're both just neighbors. No PRs here at all.

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No Jon. I only suggested that to attempt to throw scum off the scent

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The specific question I asked the mod was "Is the jester role PM guaranteed to be identical to the one in the OP?" Ask him yourself if you don't believe me.

If interest is a factor, I should probably mention that my interest in pretty much everything has dropped significantly in the past few days. I will continue to be around and I hope to recover soon, but don't expect me to do anything complex for a while.

[KingdomAces]

Why don't you actually do something useful then?

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Okay bye. I am actually town, but I still think this is the best move.

If Ika doesn't die tonight, you should probably just lynch him. Like, I'm 60% sure he's the jester and doesn't care at all about the game because he figured out that he lost fairly quickly, but I didn't think it was worth the risk of just assuming that.

The way the wagon on Anatole stalled heavily while any wagon on me went really quickly is definitely something to look at. I think scum is probably behind that somehow, whether Anatole actually is scum or they just think I'm more of a threat for some reason. Strongly look at DLA and Elmo after this. Spades is still also probably scum, but that's still just gut with absolutely no backing, so I'm not sure how much should be thought of that. I'm still town on Honey Bee and TSO, and slightly town on STD. The remaining players in my S to T rank are Bins, Cho, Who.

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And I posted something else and it got eaten. Great. Now I completely forget what was in it. I think it was something like...

I would have pushed harder to save myself, but then Anatole would have been lynched, been town, and then I would have been mislynched almost immediately for only looking survivalistic once it looked like I was going to be lynched when before I was fine with dying here.

Also, Every gambit I ever do blows up in my face somehow. This one seems to have been worse than most on that front.

See some of you later.

...and I think I said some other things as well, but I forget. Oh well.

[KingdomAces]

*headdesk*

That is all.

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Just wondering, why would any town ever push for a Honey Bee lynch the day after the no kill? Even without role interactions, Not Mafia was confirmed scum as soon as he did that.

Anyway, I apologize to everyone for thinking that it was fine to let myself be lynched on D1. It appears that was a mistake after all, even though I just spent the past two months still thinking it was fine.

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I'd be fine with a verdict of Bert and Spades winning. Bert managed to get ika lynched upon his replace in, and his follow was a huge swing in town's favor netting both BBMolla and STD while confirming Who as town. And as I've said in the dead thread, if I wasn't confirmed not jester, I would have been pushing a Spades lynch quite a bit.

Really though, maybe it would just be better if we all just forgot this game ever happened.

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Honey bee, you were fairly obvtown. I have no clue why anyone thought otherwise. Also the plan was foolproof.