Mini 1672: Bastard++ (Game Over)

Titus · Post Post #899 (isolation #0) » Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:31 pm

VOTE: McMemmo

Eyeballing VCA either this or Peacebringer should happen today.

Titus · Post Post #902 (isolation #1) » Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:46 pm

@Marchuran, was McMemmo supposedly copped? What's to say that McMemmo isn't a cult leader? You seemed to wonder about cults in the early game (based on mod's ISO) but now your theory doesn't account for the possibility that McMemmo is a cult leader.

Titus · Post Post #906 (isolation #2) » Sun Jun 21, 2015 3:59 pm

In post 903, Bins wrote:he was copped?

I'll take that as a no.

Titus · Post Post #910 (isolation #3) » Sun Jun 21, 2015 4:06 pm

VT (not hated or loved)

VOTE: Peacebringer

That list tells me there's no need to "test" McMemmo unless someone else claims Loved. While McMemmo could be cult, he shouldn't be the lynch. If McMemmo is cult, by counting the bodies we could be in a situation where we have to lynch the cult leader or a mafia if a cult indeed exists.

Titus · Post Post #911 (isolation #4) » Sun Jun 21, 2015 4:10 pm

My only concern here is that Man was culted and thus claimed an inno on a loved cult leader... but that's probably my paranoia going, as the loved townie would still be needed and would have CCed McMemmo.

Titus · Post Post #912 (isolation #5) » Sun Jun 21, 2015 4:21 pm

We have 9 letters

At least 2 are Js (House did not flip with any modifiers on the first page)
No one has claimed Vig or shot, so we can infer no Vig thus 1 T.
No extra bodies have flipped, so we can conclude no Ks. (Killer would presume that mafia would most likely kill doc claimer)
Survivor

likely[//i] claims.

So that leaves 6 questionable letters between M, J and S.

Titus · Post Post #915 (isolation #6) » Sun Jun 21, 2015 8:40 pm

VOTE: Beli

I am town for that.

Titus · Post Post #930 (isolation #7) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:15 am

Let's worry about Beli's buddies after a flip. He could be cult he could be mafia. Anything he says is wifoming at this point.

Titus · Post Post #934 (isolation #8) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:38 am

Sorry Silver, just thought guilty and processed. Would he get a cult result on the leader?

If Beli is just a regular cultist, this raises an interesting predicament.

Titus · Post Post #936 (isolation #9) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:48 am

Yeah just saw something, given that man got a guilty on.Beli we can confirm two or three Ms. Any other scenario mafia block man. This confirms three group scum are in the game.

So that means the cult leader is not weak either unless someone is a lying survivor.

Titus · Post Post #938 (isolation #10) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:52 am

Great, still following, well that means we have one lynch as a town to get the cult leader, or we have to rely on mafia killing them. We may just be boned anyway.

3 mafia
2 cultists
4 town

That can be the setup if Beli is regular cult.

Titus · Post Post #945 (isolation #11) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:25 am

I think Belo would be fighting more if cult leader.

Titus · Post Post #951 (isolation #12) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:02 am

There's zero incentive for scum to kill the cult leader if my analysis is correct. They just shoot the cop and force town and cult to work together to have any chance of winning.

Titus · Post Post #954 (isolation #13) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:30 am

VOTE: unvote

SW, look at the math. I don't think we can lynch Belo safely today as I think we have to hit the cult leader. While Beli could be, I don't think he is.

Titus · Post Post #956 (isolation #14) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 6:48 am

He's rolling over and playing dead. If cult leader survives, they can get themselves into a position where town is kingmaker. If the cult leader dies, then cult must join with town to have any shot at winning (unless there are three cult).

Titus · Post Post #962 (isolation #15) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 9:57 am

I don't think scum can be recruited...It's never been allowed when I have seen cults.

Mod: Can scum be culted?

Titus · Post Post #963 (isolation #16) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:00 am

Also, SW supposing 3 scum is off. In every possible 3 scum scenario, scum have a roleblocker and thus there would be no Beli guilty. There have to be three scum IMO.

Titus · Post Post #964 (isolation #17) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:00 am

*not supposing

Titus · Post Post #966 (isolation #18) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:53 am

Sorry totally confused the numbers rolled in my head with the number of group scum. We know that 0-5 Ms must be present. That leaves us with
MMMMM = 1-Shot Roleblocker + Goon
MMMM = Roleblocker + Goon
MMM = 1-Shot Stalker + 2 goons
MM = Stalker + 2 Goons
M = Stalker + 1-Shot Roleblocker + Goon

In any setup but MMM or MM, scum would have blocked the investigator. Thus we can conclude either MM or MMM.

That leaves CCC or CCCC barring survivors.

Titus · Post Post #967 (isolation #19) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 10:55 am

Thus three scum with a cult leader or a loved cult leader.

Titus · Post Post #969 (isolation #20) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:05 am

So turning our attention to reducing the cult leader, we know it's not the investigator. McMemmo is likely cleared from that category as well because he was proven loved previously. These two also likely are not group scum. I am town which takes us to three town assuming cult did not recruit the investigator or McMemmo. I am town. That leaves one town in everyone else.

Beli is an easy lynch since group scum will join it, we just need to make sure it's right. If Beli is not the cult leader, we should try looking at day2 reads... but I am not sure which goes first cop or conversion so...

Titus · Post Post #971 (isolation #21) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:31 am

Logically, yes. Yet two players pushing a scum as scum would have gotten him lynched. We didn't see that so we deduce scum lack influence OR scum did succeed and this is illusory and I am already kingmaker.

Titus · Post Post #973 (isolation #22) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:39 am

Just saw that Beli could be converted D3 because Beli would not be curled till the next day.

Figured I could solve this by VCA but y'all had the lucky fest wagons...

Titus · Post Post #974 (isolation #23) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:40 am

*curled is culted

Aww fuck this.

VOTE: Beli

It's the only shot we have I think.

Titus · Post Post #976 (isolation #24) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 11:52 am

If Beli is not a cultist, our investigator just cultclaimed.

Titus · Post Post #978 (isolation #25) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:17 pm

Right, I just hope he is the leader...

Titus · Post Post #981 (isolation #26) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 12:52 pm

Yeah, I doubt the cult leader would be obvious.

Titus · Post Post #989 (isolation #27) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 4:40 pm

In post 988, Sonic Boom wrote:
In post 985, Bins wrote:gonna hammer
so someone speak up if they wanna talk about something

Happy scumday. You get hammer rights.

Derp.

Titus · Post Post #991 (isolation #28) » Mon Jun 22, 2015 5:45 pm

So Beli, are you a cult leader or just a regular cultist?

Titus · Post Post #1005 (isolation #29) » Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:09 am

Mod, should this game be called or did you miscalculate the to lynch number. If five to lynch and 7 alive, only mafia can win if my calculations are correct and three mafia exist.

Titus · Post Post #1006 (isolation #30) » Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:13 am

I think for now we must assume that only two mafia exist. If we are wrong, the mod will call the game.

McMemmo is off the table for a lynch as he can only be town or cult.
Shos and Peacebringer are the likely cultists fmpov due to their reluctance to get on the Beli wagon.

VOTE: Bins

Titus · Post Post #1013 (isolation #31) » Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:45 am

In post 1007, Bins wrote:... You know it's confirmed that 3 mafia exist?

Did you not read the discussion yesterday?

Titus · Sat Jun 27, 2015 10:08 am

All two scum scenario give them a roleblocker. If scum had a roleblocker, then we would not have gotten a Beli result.

Titus · Post Post #1028 (isolation #33) » Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:13 pm

There should be three, but mod should have called it if three...so 2?

Titus · Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:01 pm

Town would have won, if you would have listened to me.

So who all was culted?

Perhaps there should be a modification to the lynch requirement to not have this happen again. Winning this way feels kinda sleezy.

I wanted to win by counterclaiming Wolf's likely cult status but when town couldn't lynch us, it was like meh.

Titus · Post Post #1041 (isolation #35) » Sun Jun 28, 2015 2:38 pm

You played fine Maruchan. The claim being early hindered, but it also should have helped town deduce 3 mafia and therefore to ignore your guilty and hope Beli culted a scumfuck.

Titus · Post Post #1048 (isolation #36) » Sun Jun 28, 2015 4:41 pm

In post 1042, SilverWolf wrote:Both PR's claiming early hurt but you played well Maruchan.

That's a good idea Titus, I might have thought of it if I had more experience with this set-up.

That's the thing, as scum I almost invariably tell you what a) is the right manuever or b) the right manuever based on what you should know. I'm incorrigible like that because I am a terrible liar.