Mini 1702 - Time Travel Mafia - game over

[Yosarian2]

Hello all, I'm replacing into this game.

Haven't read the whole game yet, but I just read day 1, and...wft was that?

[Yosarian2]

Ok, so it was a mod error but there was still some weird stuff going on on day 1.

Intent to hammer bulbazoor

Please rc

Demanding a roleclaim this early seems anti-town, although maybe not in this setup. Still a weird post to make on page 1.

It's also pretty anti-town that Zakk didn't mention explicitly that he was double-voting; he said something about that, but he made it sound like a joke.

Not_Mafia putting him at lynch -1 that early is also pretty iffy.

[Yosarian2]

:/ apparently it's impossible to make a joke here

So, you saw someone was at lynch -1 on page 1, threatened to hammer, and demanded a role claim. How is that a "joke"? Did you actually want him to claim? What if he had?

[Yosarian2]

Zakk is actually looking pretty town on my read-through, despite that weirdness day 1. He's coming off as aggressive and scumhunting, trying to put pressure on people and push wagons, and at least some of his pushes make sense to me. Also that whole thing about him not getting that the mayor role switched made sense. Overall he's giving off a fearless vibe, which is usually a good sign.

[Yosarian2]

And it looks like we're mass claiming for day 1.

Day 1, I was a roleblocker. I think mafia theory suggests roleblockers and trackers should wait and claim their target last, since we could theoretically catch a liar that way. Who else still hasn't clamed?

[Yosarian2]

:/ apparently it's impossible to make a joke here

So, you saw someone was at lynch -1 on page 1, threatened to hammer, and demanded a role claim. How is that a "joke"? Did you actually want him to claim? What if he had?

No and he wouldn't have. I'm pretty sure bulb has a quarter of a brain

Why wouldn't he? He was already at lynch -1, someone was threatening to hammer, and role claims aren't as dangerous in this game as they usually are.

I could have accepted your post if you defended it for tactical reasons or something like that, but when you claim it was "just a joke", I have trouble believing that. No one threatens to hammer someone at lynch -1 "as a joke".

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian

: What are your thought's on Hiplop's push on Dom?

My vote is still on Dom, from the guy I replaced, and I think I'm going to leave it there for now. His threat to hammer, his demand for a roleclaim, and then him trying to claim it was a "joke" the next day is probably the scummiest thing I've yet seen.

I also want to get an explanation from not_mafia for why he put someone at lynch -1 on day 1, and it seems like a lot of people are lurking today.

[Yosarian2]

Night 1, Maruchan blocked Klingoncelt.

[Yosarian2]

@Yosarian

: What are your thought's on Hiplop's push on Dom?

My vote is still on Dom, from the guy I replaced, and I think I'm going to leave it there for now. His threat to hammer, his demand for a roleclaim, and then him trying to claim it was a "joke" the next day is probably the scummiest thing I've yet seen.

I also want to get an explanation from not_mafia for why he put someone at lynch -1 on day 1, and it seems like a lot of people are lurking today.

Not what I asked for.

You want me to look at hiplop's play specifically? Ok.

Looks like he voted Dom for

VOTE: dominator

pushed hard for a obvious mislynch. fuck that

and for

zakk seems town to me.

dominators push on him is sketch

First post is pretty factually inaccurate; Dom didn't actually have much to do with the mislynch, and I'm not sure how it was an "obvious mislynch" when we didn't have enough posts to read anyone at that point. But he may have just meant that Dom's weird hammer threat day 1 looked scummy, and it did.

Second post is better; I agree that zakk looks town and Dom's vote on him looks OMGUS.

None of this gives me a strong read on hiplop, either way. I could see either town or scum making posts like that.

[Yosarian2]

Is there a reason I shouldn't?

Well, yes. If you put someone at lynch -1 that early in the game, based on nothing at all, there's a significant risk that something stupid will happen. Which, you know, it did. And you clearly knew you were putting him at lynch -1.

It's an anti-town play, pretty clearly, and I would like to know why.

[Yosarian2]

@ Dominator - who are your top 3 Scum reads?

@ Bellaphant - same question.

Hiplop and zakk I don't really have a third yet

Are you sure that's not just because they've been attacking you? What, specifically, do you find scummy about them?

[Yosarian2]

My vote is still on Dom, from the guy I replaced, and I think I'm going to leave it there for now. His threat to hammer, his demand for a roleclaim, and then him trying to claim it was a "joke" the next day is probably the scummiest thing I've yet seen.

This is the best case on Dom. My question for this is, what would Scum Dom gain from this action?

Mmm. Good question.

In most games, getting people to role-clam early does help the scum, but that's probably less true here. Although claiming early still probably isn't great for the town and we should avoid it unless we have a good reason, since there seem to be a couple of roleblocker roles floating around.

In this case, if Dom had come out day 2 and given some kind of reasonable (or even unreasonable) explanation for his behavior, I might have accepted it, but I'm not buying the joke excuse. Also, his suspect list looks iffy.

He did start a MD thread before this game starts wondering why he always looks like scum, though. I'll check his meta, but this kind of play may not be a strong tell for him.

I'm not 100% convinced he's scum, but he's done some scummy stuff, and really hasn't done anything yet that looks townie. Dom, if you could maybe explain you reads a little better, maybe say who you think looks town and why you think some people look like town and some look like scum, that might help.

[Yosarian2]

Ooh because of Maruchan

That's fine

You thought Maruchan looked scummy because he was lurking, right?

That's pretty reasonable, and this game is slow moving enough that going after lurkers make sense. Except that in this case, he actually ended up having to replace out, which means he was actually telling the truth and had personal out-of-game reasons for not having time to post.

[Yosarian2]

@ Dominator - who are your top 3 Scum reads?

@ Bellaphant - same question.

Hiplop and zakk I don't really have a third yet

Are you sure that's not just because they've been attacking you? What, specifically, do you find scummy about them?

The "I'm positive he is scum"

That's not terribly unusual. Aggressive players say stuff like that all the time to try to put pressure on people. Anything else? What other reads do you have?

[Yosarian2]

I looked at one of Dom's other games, Newbie 1617. He was lynched as town day 1, but his playstyle there doesn't look quite like it does here.

[Yosarian2]

Fabulous.

If FA_Q2 wasn't Scum, then we're at LyLo.

And he pretty clearly wasn't, since if a town had vigged him they would have claimed by now.

[Yosarian2]

Although two kills do mean that it's possible we have a SK in this game.

If we do, then klingonkelt looks pretty bad, since the guy I replaced blocked him night 1.

[Yosarian2]

If FA_Q2 wasn't Scum, then we're at LyLo.

And you came to this conclusion because you know how many scum there are?

How many players started the game? What's the Town/Scum ratio?

It doesn't take an abacus to figure out that there's 3 Scum.

3 mafia is likely, but like I said, 2 mafia/ 1 SK is also possible.

[Yosarian2]

Yeah, no need to rush into voting. We could very well be in lynch or lose, and we have time to discuss things first.

guille, can you explain why you think not_mafia is scum? Just from the dom wagon?

[Yosarian2]

I find it very likely that there is at least one scum in the that wagon. For two reasons: It was a great wagon for scum to be in, and it wasn't as easy to lynch him after the initial burst of votes, so, scum would likely try to push it harder.

Not necessarily. There was really only one wagon yesterday, except for a couple of votes on Zakk who was also town, and we were heading for deadline. Scum could have just lurked, knowing that town was almost certanly going to be lynched without them having to do anything.

Not_mafia is a reasonable suspect, though. I thought that page 1 "lynch -1" vote he made for no reason was pretty anti-town, and he hasn't done much since then to make me think he's town.

[Yosarian2]

Ugh, not mafia is the only person on both lynches too?

Guille is still my top town-read. Can you clarify this: 'In that wagon, I suspect NM and Yos, and Yos had the most to contribute to it, aka had the best argument to be in it.'

@Yos, there were also votes on kling (and hip, sometimes).

Yeah, but looking back through the votecounts, it looks like there were never more then 2 votes on anyone, right? There really weren't any other big bandwagons yesterday other then Dom.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, just posting first of all to say that I'm here and I'm not quickvoting

[Yosarian2]

Ok, so I guess either iceguy or Klingoncelt has to be scum now, or else scum probably would have quicklynched him by now, right? That vote has been sitting there for 24 hours now, and no quicklynch.

[Yosarian2]

Ok, so I guess either iceguy or Klingoncelt has to be scum now, or else scum probably would have quicklynched him by now, right? That vote has been sitting there for 24 hours now, and no quicklynch.

Well, that is the case only if there are three scum partners. And they all need to vote in quick succession.

If there's not a SK, then there probably are 3 mafia. Town has had a lot of power this game, compared to a normal 12-player game; I'd be surprised if there's less then 3 anti-town roles.

[Yosarian2]

Overall, I have a pretty town vibe from Iceguy this game; he's been active, posting a lot, and his play overall looks pretty pro-town. If it does come down to a choice between the two of them, I'm leaning towards voting Klingon over Iceguy.

[Yosarian2]

We've already established that scum today pretty much have to be within (Klingon, IceGuy) and voting outside of that pair makes absolutely no sense, Klingon. Especially based on something like that; this is a theme game, mods can make up their own roles, and there's no reason to assume it's the same as the one on the wiki.

Also, hunting for "third party" is a pretty strong mafia tell, anyway.

I think this is the way to go today.

vote:Klingoncelt

He pretty much has to be scum. Also, if he's not scum, then we've already lost anyway if either Iceguy or Not_Mafia is town.

[Yosarian2]

We've already established that scum today pretty much have to be within (Klingon, IceGuy) and voting outside of that pair makes absolutely no sense, Klingon.

I'm sorry, but Why is this the case? Did I miss something?

Well, I'm assuming 3 mafia here, so we're in lynch or lose. Because Iceguy was voting for Klingon, the vote stayed there for quite a while, and the scum didn't try and quicklynch. That meas that either Iceguy is scum (meaning there's only 2 other scum who could vote) or Klingon is scum (in which case the scum can't quicklynch him).

That wouldn't be 100% conclusive if the vote only stayed there for a few minutes, but with it staying there for a few days, it's pretty conclusive. Once someone votes for someone else in lynch or lose, and the game doesn't immediately end, one of them has to be scum.

[Yosarian2]

if Klimgon is scum, then it is likely that we have two scum factions.

Oh? Why is that?

[Yosarian2]

He was roleblocked (claimed by maruchan) on a night that there was a kill. If he is scum, he is likely lying about being a Vig and hoplop was a genuine attempt at killing opposing scum. This is just me speculating on what I think is the likely scenario

He was roleblocked on a night there was a kill, but that doesn't really mean much; if there were 3 mafia, then even if maruchan roleblocked a mafia member, there's only a 1/3 chance that that would stop the kill.

I'm not sure why he would have killed hoplop. Maybe he thought hoplop was a power role that night?

[Yosarian2]

I was a VT last night.

[Yosarian2]

He was roleblocked on a night there was a kill, but that doesn't really mean much; if there were 3 mafia, then even if maruchan roleblocked a mafia member, there's only a 1/3 chance that that would stop the kill.

I actually think Klingon is the SK. She didn't know roles changed every day; it would make perfect sense that the SK has fixed abilities.

Hmm. Well, if there is a SK in this game, we really do want to lynch the SK first. It the setup is (1 SK, 2 mafia) and we lynch a mafia member today, and then mafia and SK kill tonight, then tommorow we'd be in a situation with (2 town, SK, Mafia) and that's probably a town loss (if you lynch either the mafia or the SK in that situation, town loses). We're much better off if we lynch the SK and go into tommorow with (3 town, 2 mafia), that's more winnable.

[Yosarian2]

He was roleblocked on a night there was a kill, but that doesn't really mean much; if there were 3 mafia, then even if maruchan roleblocked a mafia member, there's only a 1/3 chance that that would stop the kill.

I actually think Klingon is the SK. She didn't know roles changed every day; it would make perfect sense that the SK has fixed abilities.

Hmm. Well, if there is a SK in this game, we really do want to lynch the SK first. It the setup is (1 SK, 2 mafia) and we lynch a mafia member today, and then mafia and SK kill tonight, then tommorow we'd be in a situation with (2 town, SK, Mafia) and that's probably a town loss (if you lynch either the mafia or the SK in that situation, town loses). We're much better off if we lynch the SK and go into tommorow with (3 town, 2 mafia), that's more winnable.

That's odd. Most 3P games that I've been in Town wanted to get rid of Mafia first, mainly because Mafia has PRs in addition to a factional kill.

Why change that?

Normally, I'd agree, but there's 7 people left alive now. So if there are 2 scum factions that both have a kill, and they both kill townies tonight, then tomorrow we're at 4 people with only 2 town, which is a really bad place to be.

[Yosarian2]

I see.

Now I was a Vig Night 2. There was only 1 kill Night 1.

So do you have anything that you can pass off as evidence that there's a 2nd Faction or 3rd Party?

Honestly, I still think you're more likely to be mafia then to be a SK. Either way, though, I don't really think you're town. The vote on Not_Mafia last page, based on what looked like highly improbable role speculation based on finding a different role with the same name on the wiki, was really dodgy.

[Yosarian2]

Honestly, I still think you're more likely to be mafia then to be a SK.

I think the vig claim points to SK, mafia would just send another player upon whom there is less suspicion instead.

It really has to be one or the other at this point, in any case. If Klingon was town, and there were 3 mafia in this game, he'd absolutly be speedlynched by now, since we'd be in lynch or lose and he's got 2 votes on him. So most likely there's only 2 mafia (in which case Klingon almost has to be a SK) or there's 3 mafia and Klingon is one of them. (I guess it's possible there's only 2 mafia and no SK, but that seems really unlikely in a game where town's had this much power).

[Yosarian2]

I'm Ok with Lynching Klingon today. I'll go evaluate everyone tomorrow, as I don't have time now. All I want to point out today, is that I did not like Yos's mention that today's game was between Klingon and IG.

That's a pretty normal assumption in lynch or lose, once you see one guy vote for another and the vote stays on there for a while without a quicklynch. Granted, if Klingon is a SK, then that doesn't apply.

[Yosarian2]

Towards the end, I was really thinking yos was scum, and mostly because of the K vs IG thing. That really stood out.

That's actually one thing that I would have 100% assumed as town as well. I always assume that in lynch or lose. In fact, that was why I had to vote Klingon, even though not_mafia would have been an easier lynch, was because I knew there was no way I could justify voting outside (klingon v iceguy).

Of course, in this game it didn't go that way, because my scum buddies didn't even try to speedlynch, heh. But IMHO that's an anomaly.

[Yosarian2]

But you knew it was LyLo. If you were town you'd likely underestimate scum like we all did.

Neah, I would have made the same assumption, I think. I'm used to 12 player games with 3 mafia, though, especially when the town has power. That's what almost all mini setups were back when I played all the time.