Thirty bucks says he's scum. Any takers?
Mini 482: Shrek Mafia - Game Over
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This is :goodposting:.Mirth wrote:Now then, I won't take up Glork's bet, but I will-
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:badposting:Zindaras wrote:-Aww, bugger, I thought she was town.
:badposting:Zindaras wrote:-Hmm, interesting, we seem to not have a role-reveal.
:ultramegabadposting:Zindaras wrote:-We only had one kill. Less likely we have an SK with that.
:mehposting:Zindaras wrote:-I like kittens.
:badposting:Zindaras wrote:-Rawr, Glork! *mad hugglez*-
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:badposting:Zindaras wrote:2 is the generally used train of thought (and, in my opinion, the correct one, assuming ceteris paribus, in other words, no one else is going to change his vote). 1 is a possiblity. But there is no reason not to vote.
See: Mafia 60, Day Two.-
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inHim probably did :goodposting:Zindaras wrote:Glork, I'd like to hear your thoughts about inHim's play in this game.-
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Meh, with no deaths N1 (I didn't realize it was night-start), Zindie's "There's probably no SK" comment isn't as uber-scummy as I initially thought. I still don't like it. What's the point of bringing it up, Zindaras?
Look, I'm reading D1!Mirth, D1 wrote:Sigh. My point is that quicklynching Nox, regardless of whether or not she is scum or town, is bad, even for scum. The scum have no good reason to quicklynch her even if she is town, because it would give them away. Thus there is no good reason to quicklynch Nox for the scum. The end.
Mirth: Why would Grek's play be a bad/scummy play then, if Nox isn't going to get quicklynched by town ('cause it's bad) or scum ('cause it's bad)?
:illogicalposting:
Are you two going to banter pointlessly on semantics and abstract mafia-playing theory all day, or should I actually bother to read the thread?Mirth wrote:
I was under the impression we already started it.Zindaras wrote:Well, we do kinda have to start the game, you know.
Considering Ben is obviously :goodpeoples:, I find posts 70 and 71 to be EXTREMELY SUSPECT.
Oh man. 76, 77, and 78 are also EXTREMELY SUSPECT. This wagon obviously reeks of opportunism on a weak player.
Nox is obviously scum. She can die now.
MAJOR FOS
Guarantee you our scums are among: {Pug, Nox, Haschel, Goldfish, Carnisade} based on the game up to the VC in Post 107
Unvote Zindaras
Okay, this read bores me already. I'm just going to assume that I read the rest of the stuff andVote: Omanbecause I'm pretty sure I didn't like Nox's play, and I remember getting an icky vibe from Oman sometime at the start of D2.-
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Hi, I'm Glork. Nice to meet you. You should probably accept that Glork, Ben/Riki, and probably Adam/Faerie are town and move on with your life.Mirth wrote:
Oh. I totally missed this one. Thank you for bringing my attention to it. FaerieLord, what makes you so sure InHim/Glork is town due to the very very few content related posts from either of them.Glork wrote:
:goodposting:FaerieLord wrote:Town: InHim / Glrok-
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The Glork works in mysterious ways. (Also, anybody who reads the D1 bandwagon on Ben with an objective eye can see that it's full of gas, overblown, and probably chock full of the scumz.)Mirth wrote:Why? How do you know this?
Re: Your attack on Grek's "quicklynch trap": My point, Mirth, is that I don't understand how is bad logic makes him scummy. You seemingly voted him for bandwagoning, but if you admit that neither town nor scum will quicklynch him, then I don't see how is vote accomplishes anything other than gathering reactions/information, which is definitely a Good Thing for the town.-
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You seem to fail to understand the idea that a really bad, scummy bandwagon against a weak player (such as Ben) is usually an indication that scums were trying to get what they thought would be an easy lynch on a protown player. I will freely admit that Ben's play was not stellar, but the wagon against him was rather awful. The probability of Ben/Riki being scum in my eyes is exactly zero.
Also, Adam/Fae is mostly hunch-based.-
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I shall take you under my wing and teach you The Way.Mirth wrote:No, I fail to understand how a bandwagon clears someone of being scum. An easy lynch on an anti-town player is just as possible. I'm not particularly suspicious of DR, but I most decidedly don't like your certainty about him. What is your hunch based on exactly? Please elaborate?-
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No, I am not NK-immune. And since I apparently was targeted for vigging, I feel obliged to claim. I amPuss-In-Boots, masons with Donkey/Dead-Rikimaru. (That's the other reason Iknowthat Ben/Riki isn't scum.)
It's ridiculous to target a lurker/inactive for vigging simply because they are likely to be replaced (as inHim was) by an active player (such as yours truly). Was there even a case against inHim aside from his lurking? I saw at the start of day that Zindie mentioned being suspicious of the people who lynched Grak, but I felt that this was terribly misleading, as when I read, there was a substantial wagon on Grak, and inHim went active back inAUGUST. To pin the mislynch on inHim seemed ridiculous, which is also why I suspected Zindie coming into today.-
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By the way, I find it at least as likely that Goldfish wasroleblocked. I have no idea why Goldfish assumed that I wasprotected. That seems a bit strange to me. Mind explainig, Goldfish?-
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Not a smart move? If you were told that somebody tried to kill you last night, and you found it reasonably likely that they would try to kill you again, would you feel incentive to claim? Especially when the claim itself is essentially confirmation of your role and alignment?
I think possibly my only mistake was in naming my mason-partner specifically. Claiming when you are declared as a Vig target isvirtually identicalto claiming when at Lynch-1 and somebody is saying "I'm willing to drop the hammer on this person." If I were in the latter scenario, I imagine you would be absolutely demanding that I claim. Why do you feel it was such a mistake here and now?
And as far as Fae goes, I again have my own reasons. I would explain them, but I am fairly certain that they would out Fae's role as well, and I do not wish to do that (for obvious reasons).-
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I still want to know why people are assuming PROTECTION and not a ROLEBLOCKER ON GOLDFISH.
What about Goldfish's claim, Mirth, makes you disbelieve that she was not roleblocked? Did she claim that her vigkill was unblockable? Not as far as I can tell. Did people suspect her? Yes, absolutely. Could there be a Mafia roleblocker who would have targeted her? Distinctly possible.
You're shutting out an awful lot of possibilities and making what I believe is a rather large leap of faith to a conclusion that I completely disagree with.
As far as I can tell, inHim was a lurker who had moderate suspicion on him. I see no reason for most players to have protected him. Also, the existence of a second Doctor would almost necessarily mean that Pug is scum. Thus, the Doctor would be somebody who suspects Pug in spite of his claim (there are, as far as I can remember, only two people who have expressed willingness to lynch Pug today) and somebody who believed inHim to be protown towards the end of yesterday (which I have not checked, but will do in a bit).
I might have to start calling you MsBuddyLee.Mirth wrote:Unless he is also a mason, you have no way of being certain of this,
How often are playerscertainof information in Mafia?
Very, very, VERY rarely.
This is why tells exist in the first place. Certain behaviors exhibittendenciesof certain roles. Upon observing these behaviors, one is to take an action, whether it's declaring belief of that player's towniness (as I did to Fae) or attempting to kill that player (as Gold claims she did to me). Do you think that Goldfish wascertainthat I was scum? Obviously not, since she was wrong. Do you feel that players should only act or speak out on their opinoins if they arecertainthat what they are thinking is true?
Finally, a set of rhetorical questions to get you thinking about certainty and willingness to express one's opinions:
You have stated your belief that I wasprotectedand have ruled out, in your mind, the idea that Goldfish wasroleblocked. Are youcertainin this belief? If not, why did you state your belief? Whatreasonsdo you have to believe that Goldie was not roleblocked?
This whole thing goes both ways, Mirth. I stated something that I believe, but am notcertainof. Goldfish claims to have taken an action based on her suspicions, which were definitely notcertain. You have expressed your opinion of why I didn't die, and I'm willing to bet that you are far fromcertainon this matter. You seem to want to have your cake and eat it, too.-
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Are you certain of this?Mirth wrote:If Glork is a mason, this makes me think either Goldfish or Mexal is scum based on probability of having at least one scum on the Nox bandwagon. Mexal, Goldfish, what say you both to this?-
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Oooh. Mirth, if you want my opinions on "Certainty" of protownness (and the "MsBuddyLee" reference), see this post from Mafia 60. I think it sums things up pretty nicely. Also, the context of this post is that MBL (scum) attacked me for defending Zindaras (Town) because I exhibited the belief that Zindaras was town, and he didn't see how I could be so "certain" of that possibility.
Disturbingly familiar.-
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No, I merely stated that the probability isMirth wrote:Now you're discounting the possibility of two doctors (We don't know if Pug is effective).VERYslim. If I had more time, I would run through the last 100 mini games and tally the number of games that had two Doctors in them. I'd be willing to bet money that the result would be a single-digit number.
*click*
I just had a thought.Major FoS: Pug
In other news, you seem to be missing one of my points, Mirth, which is that I never expressed "certainty" to begin with. I stated mybelief, stating that Fae is "probably" protown.
Also, I'm not following your "why Gold wasn't blocked" argument:
A roleblocker who claims isn't effectively suiciding. I will grant that, though I fail to see how that's relevant:Mirth wrote:A doctor that's not Pug claiming is suicide. A roleblocker claiming, however, isn't, because the roleblocker has the chance of blocking the kill on himself if he hits the right player, or has a chance of protection from the doc. Second, if Goldfish isn't lying, well then there isn't a roleblocker. No leaps of faith here.
A) You have expressed frustration with the number of claims, and I hardly believe that you would want/expect a Roleblocker to come out and claim. Have you ruled out the possibility that a player has posted and elected not to claim? Do you see any compelling reason for an RB to claim (and/or to claim their target from last night)?
B) There are a few players who have not even posted since Gold's claim. Have you ruled out the possibility of one ofthoseplayers having blocked Gold?
Two things that can very easily point to why an RB might not have claimed (to have blocked Goldfish) yet.-
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EBWOP: See, Mirth, the problem I have with your play is that you're okay with stating some things based on "probablity" or "belief," but you don't want me to be able to express things based on probability (such as Fae's innocence or the likelihood of there being two Doctors). I really don't understand how you're okay with such a disparity between my stated opinions and your stated opinions.-
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It is confirmed that he is not scum. I wouldn't call him 100% town if not, Zindie. You know me better than that.-
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Actually, Goldfish, I have modded several games which included approximately half a dozen roleblocking roles, and to my recollection, onlyDeliciousGoldfish wrote:I wasn't blocked because I did NOT receive a PM saying I was roleblocked. Online mafia usually goes that way... And, again, had you read my post, you would see that I had PMed the Mod asking that very question.ONEof those roles had a "your target will be told they were roleblocked" clause. Most of the time, in my experience, targets areNOTtold that they have been roleblocked. Whether or not that happens is entirely dependent on the Mod, the game in question, and the specific role/ability of the RB in question.-
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To clarify: I have modded several games which, collectively/between them, have included a total of ~6 roleblocking abilities. I have *not* modded a setup with six roleblockers.-
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Okay, that changes an awful lot. I was not willing to make such an assumption with nothing to go on.DeliciousGoldfish wrote:EBWOP:
I forgot to reiterate in my last post that I PMed the Mod and I was told I would have been made aware of having been roleblocked.
I now agree with Fae's assertion that, if there's a Doc out there, they should counterclaim Pug.-
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Actually, I'm almost entirely convinced that you're town, based on your play today.
However, I also believe that Goldfish is telling the truth about her role and alignment.-
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EBWOP:
Interestingly enough, Pug/Oman are two of my top suspects right now. Take that as you will.Mirth wrote:f Pug isn't a doctor, I'll be massively FOSing Oman, because as I've said multiple times before, Nox, having a bandwagon on her, didn't clear her of anything.-
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I'm glad you value my input... but I'm trying to sort through this mess as much as anybody else.Mirth wrote:Glork, I'd like to hear what you think of all this.
First of all, I find it deliciously ironic that I stated how few games tend to have multiple Doctors, and this just so happens to be a game that revolves around having multiple Doctors.
I believe that the Cop and the Vigilante are both legit. Any scums who have fake-claimed so far will almost certainly be among the "Doctor" group. I still believe that Goldfish's claim, while ill-advised, was probably intended as she meant. There is zero reason to believe that she would out herself as a killing role unless she were protown. Furthermore, there is credibility to her claim based on the fact that she claimed to try to kill mewell beforeshe could have known whether or not
Based on order of claims, the second claimed Doctor (Mirth) is almost certainly legit. Based on Herschel's reaction to Pug's claim, his vote for Pug today, etc., I am willing to believe for now that he is more likely than Zindaras/Pug to be a Doctor.
Pug could have easily been scum fake-claiming to try to draw out "the" real Doctor.
Zindaras could very easily be scum who recognized the theme (and may even have guessed HerschelDoc as well) and joined the Doc-Claiming wagon. Neither of these two players are in any way cleared based on claim.
Looking at rolenames will probably not help us at all. KScope almost certainly has provided rolenames for the scums to claim, and I wouldn't discount the possibility of ShrekDoc and FionaVig.
Zindaras:Why did you protect Riki last night?
FaerieLord and Oman:Please claim as soon as possible.
Goldfish:I agree with FaerieLord's assertion that you are not to kill unless we as a collective demand it. And even then, you are to kill exactly who we tell you to kill. Though I find it likely that you're a Vig, I don't want any loose cannons screwing around with our carefully laid plans. If you deviate at all, IWILLpush for your lynch relentlessly. Am I crystal clear on this matter? Your "Vig" ability is now effectively a "Second Lynch" for the town.
Since we are (already!) at the massclaim stage, the game will likely be won or lost based on our ability to discern who is lying and who is telling the truth. From my perspective, I would give 90% that Mirth is town, 90% that Mexal is town, and probably 75% that Herschel is town. DR and I are obviously town. That's a pretty strong basis from which to work.
The other thing a Massclaim does for us is, assuming that no protown roles lied, it negates the "No Reveal" nature of the game.
Oh, I just had a thought.
At some point, I would like to go through the game hunting for possible breadcrumbs from Jex, as she was the only player nightkilled. It would be very helpful to know what her actual specific role was. I wouldstronglysuggest that the rest of you do the same. If somebody finds something in Jex's posts, please point it out to the rest of us.
Sheesh. I think that does it. This game definitely just got a *LOT* more interesting. Once all of the claims are laid out and we've assessed which ones we believe, it'll be time to set a course of action. But we'll get to that later.-
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Ugh. The WIFOM of this is terrible.
In flavored games, many mods intentionally shake up the mafiagame-alignments of players from movies. In the Princess Bride Mini, the mafia consisted of Rugen, Humperdink, and Albino, butFEZZIKwas given as a safeclaim for the scums. The strength of that claim (nobody guessed that Fezzik would be fake or scum until it was too late) helped the mafia win that game.
I also know for a fact that, long ago on another forum, KScope modded a Harry Potter themed game in which all of the obvious/main good guys from the movie were also good guys in the game. An early massclaim broke the game open because everybody who had a weak/obscure claim was killed. I survived last, claiming my role of Snape and asserting that I was protown, but we as a mafia never stood a chance.
KScope knows full well that he must craft a setup where simply claiming a rolename willnotcause the town to auto-win. I would strongly caution against using rolenames as a basis for dertermining town/scum.
Incidentally, I don't even remember who Artie was in the movies, and Grek died as Artie/Protown.-
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Mirth wrote:I'm also going to ask something of everybody:
Please don't speculate about future strategy until Oman and Faerie claim.-
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Well obv you would protect him due to thinking he was town, Zindaras, but I want to know what protown tells he had given off on D1 that made you think he was protection-worthy.-
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Unvote
I need to give this game some thought. I am currently evaluating the WIFOM aspect of Oman's claim. If he is town, it almost necessarily means that one of our Doctors is a Mafia Doctor somewhere.-
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Also, I would say that my suspect list is currently Pug, Zindaras, Oman, and Fae, in no particular order.
Glork/Riki obviously town
Mexal very likely town
Mirth/Haschel almost certainly town
Goldfish -- probably not Mafia (unless GF or sanity issues), probably not SK (unless inv-immune and making bad/WIFOMy Vig-claim)-
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Glork's plan:
Lynch Oman
If Oman town, vig Pug, set up protections so that Zindaras is the "best" mafia kill.
If Oman scum, no vig, set up protections so that Pug is the "best" mafia kill.
Tomorrow we'll go from there, based on what happens today/tonight.
And, obviously, this is based on my own suspicions, so it's skewed to what I would do if I got to run the show.-
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Like I said, Oman's role being town means that there is almost certainly a ScumDoctor in the game. I absolutely believe that Mirth and Haschel are protown, so the scumdoc(s) will be found among Pug/Zindaras. Thus, you two would be the best lynch/vig candidates. We take care of one (Pug) and if the mafia takes care of the other (Zindaras), they're almost doing our work for us.Zindaras wrote:
I'd love to hear the rationale behind this.Glork wrote:Glork's plan:
Lynch Oman
If Oman town, vig Pug, set up protections so that Zindaras is the "best" mafia kill.
If Oman scum, no vig, set up protections so that Pug is the "best" mafia kill.
Tomorrow we'll go from there, based on what happens today/tonight.
And, obviously, this is based on my own suspicions, so it's skewed to what I would do if I got to run the show.
Of the four suspects I listed, I think Fae is at the bottom of the list -- plus, his ability is confirmable. I realize that it doesn't say anything about his alignment, but it makes him worth keeping around, I beleive. Mexal is obviously the Cop and can work on investigating people as he sees fit. Glork/Riki are Masons -- the most "confirmed" of the bunch, but otherwise powerless.
Really, finding out Oman's alignment (though I'm really starting to think OmanTown and PugScum based on Pug's most recent post) is essential to figuring out the setup here. As far as raw suspicions go, I'd rather lynch Pug or possibly you, Zindie, but I might be willing to play the strategy/percentage game by getting info from an OmanLynch.-
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Vote: Pug89
Screw the safe/information play. Simply put, I find Pug much more likely to be scum than Oman.-
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Hey, folks, still on limited access.... sorry I've not been around. :/
I guess I'm okay with lynching Oman, but I really think that Pug or Zindaras needs to be vigged if Oman turns up protown. Like I said, that almost guarantees that there is a Mafia Doctor out there somewhere, and I'm certain that Mirth/Haschel are protown.-
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I prefer the following:
Haschel protects Glork
Mirth protects DR
Zindaras protects Mirth or Haschel
Pug protects Mexal
....but again, that's based almost entirely on my own suspicions/beliefs, and is dependant upon Oman turning out to be protown (which I still believe is the case). If Oman is protown, I would suggest that we vig one of Pug/Zindaras and seriously consider lynching the other.-
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Because if he reallyMirth wrote:No, you miss the point of my question. Why Pug, who you have treated as your number one suspect (and who is very suspicious, and even if not lying, possibly ineffective as a doctor due to character), protecting Mexal?*IS*a Doctor, then Mexal shouldn't die. The scums have no compelling reason to target Mexal whatsoever unless Pug is part of their scumgroup.-
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Probably because we're the masons and they're unconfirmed.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I understand the paranoia, Goldie, but I have to say that scums false-claiming as masons isextremelyrisky.
1) We wouldn't know if there was a cop out thre.
2) We wouldn't know if any cop out there would be sane or paranoid
3) We wouldn't know if any cop out there already had a guilty result on one of us (Imagine if we fake-claimed masons and a sane cop had already investigated one of us as scum!)
4) We would have to explain why nobody nightkilled us over the course of the entire game post-claim(keep in mind that there was no barrage of claimed doctors when I claimed -- so this would have been a valid issue if I hypothetically were deciding whether to false-claim)
5) There wasn't enough real pressure to force me to claim Masons. You said you had tried to Vig me, and accepting that would have been more beneficial than claiming Mason, getting vigged, and outing my buddy.
6) I sincerely doubt that I would have claimed my partner's identity outright if I were fake-claiming. Why lead the town to your buddy if you go down in flames?
WIFOM aside, it isquiteidiotic to see scums fake-claim masons. In fact, I can't even remember the last time I've seen somebody try it, and I can't recall a game in which it ever actually worked.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I don't like it exactly for the reason you stated. Although now that I think about it, Goldie is probably protown based on the timing of her claim and the fact that I was definitely protected last night.
I would prefer to use multiple protection chains with Zindaras and Pug as the two unprotected players. Period.
But since I also trust Mirth and Haschel entirely, I am willing to allowTHEMto use weighted/randomization factors. Here's what I propose now:
Haschel protects Glork or Mexal (50/50)
Mirth protects DR or Goldie (50/50)
Pug protects Haschel
Zindaras protects Pug
I'm not willing to trust Fae enough right now. If he can confirm his ability and possibly out a scumbag, I'd be willing to adjust future numbers.
I don't think that Goldie should take action tonight. After tomorrow, I think that we'll know almost perfectly what the layout of the game is like.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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EBWOP: That way, the two almost-certain protown Doctors are protected.
If Oman isn't dead yet, NOBODY HAMMER PLEASE!! I want Zindaras to confirm protecting Mexal, and I want Pug to confirm protecting Haschel. I don't want any funny business going on around here.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I donn't want Mexal to reveal her inv target before we go into night. That might influence the Mafia's decision as to whether they will risk killing a 50% protect target, or whether they will "play it safe" and kill one of Zindie/Pug/Fae (assuming, of course, that at least one of thoes players is protown).
We will deal with the possibility of MexalScum later, but it isNOTadvantageous right now to be directing either claimed info role (Cop or Tracker).-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I call the hammah once Pug checks in to say "I'll protect Haschel tonight."
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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*BUMP* for Pug89, who posted in another game in this forum within the past ten minutes.
Please confirm that you will protect Heschel tonight.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Fae, hurry up and come either condemn yourself or Zindaras.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Shhhhh. If Fae is going to try to bus Zindaras, I want him to bus Zindaras without being suspicious of us suspecting it.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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EBWOP: I hope that makes sense. It made sense in my head, but I think it sounds off.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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AUGH!
That last post by Gaspar was me. I forgot to swtich accounts.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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If he doesn't come back, he'll get replaced.
Then,his replacement would have to give the result correctly or SUFFER THE PEOPLE'S WRATH!
D:<-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Mexal, I understand that you're probably eager to get your result out there and get this game on with, but there is very little to be gained by being hasty. Supposing your result is on Zindaras and we catch Fae (or his replacement) lying about being a Tracker, we candefinitivelypeg two remaining scums today, and most of us wouldn't have to worry about a damned thing.
If your result is on Fae, we just lose time -- which isn't an issue, since this game isn't under deadline.
If your result is on Zindaras and Fae/Replacement give an accurate tracking, we still haven't lost a thing other than some time -- Zindie would be the obvious lynch, and we'd just go on from there.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Ha. My initial scumread on Zindie was correct!
Interesting that he allegedly targetedMIRTHthough. It's probably Fae trying to "clear" Zindaras from making the kill on Goldie.
Docs, you should each randomly choose your protection tonight -- I wouldn't give much preference. Make the last scum (assuming there is another scum) guess as to who they should kill.
Basically -- most likely, scum would want to kill a Doctor since the Doctors are both confirmed and can protect others, but we don't just want the Doctors to protect each other, since then the scum can kill off the rest of us without a care in the world.
So yeah, keep your protections mostly random. Make the scums "outguess" you on who to kill.
Vote: Zindaras-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I find it strange that you accused me of "playing like scum," Zindaras, because I think that's almost exactly how I would have played had I been strictly protown. The last (and only other) time I was a Survivor, I decided to just play a protown game and stick it out, and it worked then, too. The only thing I think I did differently was "clear" too many players, but that's part of being a Survivor -- you want to make friends, not enemies.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Oh it was absolutely intentional, DR, but I wasn't going to revealthatto the town. I'm glad I managed to make it look more panicked and reactionary, though, because it became perfectly believable/understandable that I would "screw up" and name you, too.
I was trying to decide what to do had you actually been killed... would I claim to be a Survivor as well, or would I profess bastard-modding and state that my PM only said you were "not scum"?
I had tentatively opted for the latter, but either one seemed touchy to me. I'm glad it didn't come pu.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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