Mini 1878: Darkest Dungeon Mafia - VICTORY

[Lycanfire]

i've compiled my notes. going to edge everyone while i go to work.

[Lycanfire]

When reading the game I was wondering why people involved in the Wraith wagon legitimately didn't care that the claimed intent (joke) and conclusion (scum) could have matched opposed to "action must be scummy therefore scum". HS was a component of the wagon (p88-101), and made that shitpost about crusader claims (86). They pretty much announced they wanted crusader to claim in their first post (63). I don't really know how I care about the curio flipflop (167)-there's no good scum motive here because both scenarios I can think of look like shit. Eventually the wagon got stale around the time HS claimed to kill the wagon, then they attracted a portion of the Wraith wagon. The problem with this is that the Wraith wagon was

actually a fine place to be

if you gave a damn.

Right now I'm most interested in AA.

Really dislike the handling of the Wraith wagon-AA goes back and forth with Varsoon over half a dozen posts about whether it's okay to wagon and the resolution of the curio, then when Varsoon makes a tongue-in-cheek response that they find it "curious" they're even there (155) AA affirms their actions but relents (156). I can't actually justify 156 as an attempt to further the wagon by resolving the curio and I don't see why the "pressure" had to stop to talk about the resolution during all these posts (133-156) either. If you want a reaction, you go for broke. If you want to further your wagon and don't care about the curio (133) why not tell Varsoon that you'll resolve the curio matter to resolve the reaction problem? Instead, AA comes into the exchange with Varsoon, gains a problem they don't want, and exits with what they started, while making no effort to push forward. Both problems had a solution. Get Varsoon on board with Wraith and see how far he wants to go with the curio at the same time.

When AA accepts Wraith may have been joking (219) it's worth noting that Aragorn seems to have tagged out Arwen at this stage. For some reason I really hated the "you talk to Arwen directly something something cry to HS" bit. It felt like a set up to switch gears for someone on page four (221). Aragorn hints they want to loosen the grip on Wraith, and after Wraith quotes a bunch of jokes to Arwen Aragorn thinks they're frustrated town (229), shades HS but has their vote on Wraith in this same post. Aragorn seems to consider town!Wraith at 250. The earlier trend continues with Vifam (256), but then votes HS in 277. Nothing seems to happen wrt to HS or why HS' read suddenly became important from Aragorn's last post (263) to his post 277 with the exception of Arwen making themselves known in post 270.

I really hate how AA has attached themselves to the HS wagon. It seems like it was premeditated (219+221) but wasn't until Arwen appeared that the green light was actually given. 232 was an incredible use of rhetoric to revise Arwen vs. Varsoon into Varsoon "helping" Arwen when it was really just Varsoon's obsession with the curio jamming Arwen's programming and stopping her from doing anything worthwhile related to Wraith. Seemingly nothing was said in the hydra PT harboring suspicion of this (247). If the hydra didn't care enough to note Varsoon over it, then why was the Wraith vote important at all? If their vote was better placed (which it was established after 250,256) it shouldn't have taken so long to change.

I have a few other associative reads that I don't feel like sharing. This vote is good. VOTE: AA

[Lycanfire]

oh my fucking god the forum logged me out when i spent two hours writing notes and making my post

[Lycanfire]

i stayed up all night for this shit because i work in an hour and didn't trust myself to go to sleep

[Lycanfire]

you'll get my post later tl;dr cakez wagon has grown too much in past 2 pages. what happened in that time? that was pretty much the jist of my wall

[Lycanfire]

i'm just going to ignore the last real life day happened and try to remake my wall. if someone did a 180 since then kindly go back to your position and fuck you. thanks

If I missed any questions it's because I left a snarky comment when I noted your comment. Quote it if you want me to answer.

My problem with Wraith/Curio is something I laid out in my post 325. AA mentioned they wanted nothing to do with the Curio and put their wagon above it. Then they flat out voted nobody for curio (little dramatic) and told the town they were pressuring Wraith. Then they allowed themselves to get baited into Varsoon and the Curio *became* their problem at that point.

In AA's post 351 they mentioned everything from presenting themselves as townread (they weren't) to ignoring an RVS vote (why even mention this?) to saying my argument was 'reachy'. Just a slimy comment overall because it reads like they want people to feel a certain way after reading it. The biggest problem is that they said my argument is 'reachy' despite being verified by

both

heads. Arwen said she came on to tell Aragorn that he could move the vote (328) and Aragorn claimed much the same (335). By posts 250/256 AA's vote was proven to be better placed and it took the slot 121 posts to move it some place better.

332, 333, 339 Arwen poked at HS. That last post was pretty justified though By 337 Arwen says that Wraith is still scummy, but doesn't re-place the vote which is a problem because in post 344 Arwen supposedly "saw scum getting hammered on page 2" (I might be missing a joke here).

Something that only became more important by the later Cakez wagon was that by post 364 Varsoon seemed to be promoting an AA/Cakez+Prism/Alisae scumteam. Alisae has a really weird reaction to Varsoon's reads (370) I think if he's scum, it's only with Varsoon tbh. He does later ask Varsoon a good question (378) but I'm not offering cred because I'm an asshole.

353+379 from Arwen and Aragorn respectively are like a massive lack of self awareness. Self-derailment of pressure (again) and trying to explain that they pressure their reads (they don't). 379, 382, 385, 386 is like one long bout of AtE and these don't get signed. Arwen posts later, but not too much later and I don't know if this is just Aragorn going off or what. 386 is like an HS-esque ultimatum, but to answer the question yes, I think #1 was valid, but in the way I've been phrasing it.

379-381 Varsoon could be saying more, like AA's lack of pressure. Varsoon seems to be getting personal with AA opposed to talking about the game a lot of the time.

In 390 Arwen talks about being up for a policy lynch (when was that said?) seems like a continuation of earlier AtE which is why I don't know which head was making which post. In 394 Arwen now assumes Aragorn's scumread in HS. Where's the resolution to Wraith? I thought he was scum she saw as getting hammered on page 2.

402 Clumsy appears, gives positive (as in town, without wide shading) reads. Cakez makes a weird comment on Varsoon's reads.

Arwen then places her vote onto

Varsoon

after 140 posts (416)... Without much of a read against him beyond being angry at being voted it seems.

Wraith posts townreads and makes a pretty good point I missed about Cakez not seeming to believe what they were saying about Wraith just by word choice (420)

Clumsy again graces us with their presence and doesn't say much beyond giving us their blessing on Cakez. Varsoon jokes about hammering Cakez right afterwards (425). AA tries to analyze that post I initially felt "no" but after the later Varsoon vote on Cakez "maybe". Varsoon seemed to be concerned about that post (431). Prism gives very negative reads (432). In 437 Clumsy admits their vote was better placed by the time they made their post 424, then votes Cakez. Prism then switches vote.

AA/Arwen rehashes the Wraith argument by using it on Varsoon and seems ignorant of the earlier ultimatum their slot gave to the town (386) so I'm guessing Aragorn made that post.

Right now I'm worried about how the Cakez wagon has grown and whether that had to do with Varsoon/AA being pressured. Prism/Clumsy were voting as a bloc and Varsoon switched from their scumread on the Arwen head.

also-i haven't read since my failpost. gonna run to work now

[Lycanfire]

How about you work a job sleep eat try to do the basics to maintain your standard of living, read 4 different mafias where half the player base spams because activity is AI in their monkey brains, make a post, get logged out in the process, say fuck it and go to work only to try again the next day? i've demonstrated i've been read the thread. i just didn't read that 1 real life day because i left ONE FUCKING MINUTE AFTER I MADE THAT POST without so much as eating anything before i went to work. you are fucking welcome.

[Lycanfire]

the point was that i didn't like the cakez wagon because prism/clumsy interactions varsoon reads and that the sudden surge in the wagon may have been as a result of pressure on aa or varsoon.

[Lycanfire]

one thing i articulated in my original post that didn't make it into the real one was that the cakez wagon morale was there for awhile and the votes didn't materialize until much later. i alluded to this somewhat by saying that clumsy said cakez was a good lynch while keeping their vote on pine but a lot of shade went cakez way before votes followed.

[Lycanfire]

I have missed 3-4 pages of the game since I lost the plot attacking Varsoon (who I thought was trying to push a policy lynch on Frozen Angel and discrediting our contributions) - I have since

stepped down

from that stance. I think he shares the same frustrations as I do at the state of the game, and that effected our reads/retaliation on eachother).

Did Arwen share this view?

@Lycanfire - you presented an essay explaining how 'Arwen and Aragorn' are scum. (It was such a reachy and meticulous narrative I gave you a town point for it). Are you happy to leave it at that and hope people sheep your conspiracy theory? I would have expected more active persuasion if your scum read of us was actually genuine/strong.

I would be more happy right now if people did sheep the wagon. Instead they went to Cakez which is why I immediately had to consider them (Clumsy, Prism, Varsoon) as scum. I'm just not sure if it's because of scum!AA or scum!Varsoon. Both explicitly fall in Prism's no-lynch pool (707) which is either damn onvenient but mostly incredibly inconvenient because considering a lynch on either offers a huge amount of information. Throwing both out led to a PoE pool of five, none of which weighed in very on wrt Wraith/AA/Varsoon and disqualifies Cakez (?) somehow.

Cakez and Prism then bloced on Alisae (719-721). Initially I thought Cakez was a partner of AA (on Wraith wagon, took a clear side in Varsoon v. AA, similarly affirmed me for my read like AA had) which I threw out the moment his wagon became dominant, but I think it's possible that he's interaction bombing at this point too.

My lynchpool is {AA, Prism, Cakez}. I'm going to switch gears here VOTE: Prism I also really disliked 740-742 because I feel like they're claiming Mathblade to me/the interaction with Varsoon is gross.

[Lycanfire]

Mainly because they're claiming mathblade. Go die.

[Lycanfire]

No idea who Mathblade is.

If you're referencing a technique named after them instead of the literal person, going to have to explain that one to me.

In the event you're thinking I'm the person I find it really strange to vote me on the basis of a perceived additional piece of info given to you. Presumably I'd be getting something out of it-a town meta read. As scum there would be 0 incentive to wink at you for such a thing.

it was a joke / trying to get a reaction in case it was actually true. last sentence made me laugh though

Lycanfire builds a lot of meticulous associations and links in his analysis to support his scum-reads (before an actual flip) - do you think it is an effective method to find scum on D1?

For arguments sake (in a world where I am town) I.e you could have talked yourself out of a scum-read on actual scum because of the way they interacted with my slot.

I've never understood why people talk down pre-flip associations. They're just as valid as post-flip ones. The risk is that supposedly scum will drive the association days later into a mislynch, but that risk is near-zero if you're going for the reward of observing where votes and opinions fall after the accusations.

Sly why are you TRing Varsoon?

Gut, his delivery seems genuine

Why are you SRing Prism?

Gut, derailing the Cakez wagon after VT claim, desire to lynch low hanging lurker fruit.

Why are you SRing Lycan?

Building wall cases with post numbers w/o links, seems like scum trying to present fake audit trail

Why are you TRing me?

Gut, you were first to jump off the Cakez after the VT claim, but townily returned

Is my scum motive supposed to be that I'm eventually going to fake a reference and hope nobody fact checks me?

Lycanfire builds a lot of meticulous associations and links in his analysis to support his scum-reads (before an actual flip) - do you think it is an effective method to find scum on D1?

For arguments sake (in a world where I am town) I.e you could have talked yourself out of a scum-read on actual scum because of the way they interacted with my slot.

I'm now happy with Lycanfire.

Been re-reading his reads progression. It's all tightly-knit association analysis that I think he truly believes in (as town), unaffected with how other players read those same players. I think he'll ultimately push for what he perceives as the optimum info lynch, based on how he has lined up his dominoes.

I'll likely talk to him more directly after a flip (he currently scum reads me so I feel a conversation on D1 will be futile).

If you're happy with me then why aren't you voting me?

@Desperado

is your reads list (791) purely based on the cakez wagon? were you caught up on the game when you made this post?

[Lycanfire]

Just realized Cakez was hammered

I thought Clumsy's 768 was a good post to bring attention to the wagon and the motives behind it.

[Lycanfire]

hm, okay. carry on. would like answers to my questions before i consider hammering

[Lycanfire]

i'm not exactly someone to read posts in preview mode

[Lycanfire]

i felt like i put shade on clumsy with the cakez wagon previously and wanted to articulate that i thought 768 was a town motivated post

[Lycanfire]

Why are you willing to lynch Cakez but not Varsoon or AA? Do you think Varsoon has town reasons to want him lynched and that AA has town reasons not to want him lynched?

[Lycanfire]

I really don't understand that question.

I don't really understand your read on Cakez. You've expressed intent to hammer (849) while simultaneously putting attention on people that have had little to do with the wagon (792/Kuro and Pine) while saying Cakez claim sounds townie (793) and not what you would think scum!Cakez would say based on Andrius' modding meta (808).

None of this is consistent unless you hadn't read at 792 and formed different reads since then.

[Lycanfire]

Okay, let's look at Lycan and Vifam.

Lycan

* The wall in question is again primarily focused on undermining A&A. Throws light shade on Clumsy by singling them out for lurking. Also uneasy about the Cakez wagon - could be town legitimately townreading Cakez, but this is somewhat contradictory with an earlier point they made on me raising an issue on Cakez they seemed to approve of; on the other hand, this could also be scum who thinks the Cakez wagon is bait
* Lycan's scumpool in #758 is A&A/Prism/Cakez. Where have seen this before...? I don't like it at all.
* Believed the obvious Cakez fakehammer. Then again so did Clumsy but it was much more immediate in his case. In Lycan's case it was

400 posts

after the fact - Alisae points out this oddity in #870

Few things here-

1) I don't recall singling any one out for lurking. Clumsy was vote blocing with Prism while not offering any opinions on what was being said.
2) Talk to me about this because I don't understand
3) Alisae fakehammered five minutes before my post, which showed up in preview mode for me.

* As said before, in NY200 Pine played exactly the same as here - lurked D1, provided excuses for not keeping up or posting, flaked out, and eventually flipped scum. So that's an immediate red flag to me but it's really reliable
* Claims Alisae is town due to a specific towntell. Doesn't explain what this towntell is even though they have just before replacing out.
* Scumreads Keyser in #692 for asking about a No Lynch option, which is bad

This is a really good point with the Keyser flip. I felt that Pine was lynchbait but I didn't disclose that so I could see if a counterwagon would emerge. Keyser being town makes Pine's self meta look really bad.

@Wraith

do you have any substantial read on Desperado? How do you feel about Prism's vote flipping and Desperado's wide net in relation to their reads?

I think resolving this will probably resolve Desperado wrt his end of day post VOTE: zefiend

[Lycanfire]

As interested as I am in Desperado over posts 791/797 I want to know why we would send someone afflicted to investigate a Curio that was unlikely to afflict. A confession booth could have been a public investigate but was placed on Desperado by Vifam and Kuro. After yesterday's hammer I would have wanted Vifam to have this Curio.

It seems like in 797 Desperado was calling out Pine but offering Kuro as an alt while Vifam and Kuro spent far too much time discussing lurkers on day 1 (438, 643, 703, 794 - Vifam. 611, 621 - Kuro.) No lurker lynches were going to happen day 1 without anyone calling for votes (which Vifam seems to realize and subverts in 438 by asking for a vote on Cakez). Vifam had a weird interaction with HS in 465-466 questioning his read on Kuro and never followed it up while Kuro does this with Vifam by questioning Clumsy in 669.

The Curio was never discussed and was quickhammered. That isn't okay. Desperado being the choice makes me think he isn't partners with either of them plus there's some associatives going against that as well.

VOTE: Vifam

[Lycanfire]

in case anyone does the look at my post and skip it thing justify your curio vote. that's what i want to know right now.

[Lycanfire]

Why are you ignoring me Vifam?

[Lycanfire]

What was your question

What your reasoning behind your curio vote was.

That goes for Kuro too.

A problem I have with Vifam is that the experience I've had with him he will chainsaw for his partner as scum and accuse you to distract. He isn't doing it outright here, but he likes building narratives to discredit townies as well.

[Lycanfire]

I'm for Vifam or Slysly- I missed Kuro's response, and it's a lot of needless shade for no gain. Compare to Vifam's "I didn't know any better" response. If I PoE'd out Kuro I asked myself who else could be Vifam's partner.

Vifam PoE's Slysly, but seemingly Slysly is the least of his concern. After Slysly cooks up a steak and offers meat to the thread Vifam still wants HS. Slysly sides pretty clearly with Vifam in 1146/1176 while shading Desperado and Kuro.

Between the curio and flash wagon his flip will sort Desperado and HS. I'll vote with Desperado if this doesn't move.

[Lycanfire]

Why do ppl think HS is town

I townread HS being the first person off Wraith along with post 727 where he derailed pressure on Alisae and chainsawed for Pine v. Varsoon to the point of voting him over it. He didn't have to do either of those things.

This is my lynchpool for the day VOTE: Slysly

[Lycanfire]

Good job to the town

The lynch on Zefiend was horrendous though. He never managed to post, a single time. How Vifam didn't get more flak for that I have no idea.

I still had some vain hope that Slysly would slip through, but after Clumsy revealed he was a second tracker that hope was gone. We knew he was a PR, but I was pegging him as a different kind of informative role (he could have been the Shopkeep). That was the second worst assumption I made this game.

[Lycanfire]

My worst assumption? Now prepare yourself for scumtears.

The scumteam was not told what affliction did, which was needlessly unfair. If you want to know why we didn't use ARMY OF BONES immediately... It's because we didn't know what it would do! By the time people started claiming, ARMY OF BONES was useless. Why did I use ARMY OF BONES d3? Because we weren't told that the town would know of the consequence, just that there would be an army of skeletons sent to assault the camp of the adventurers and that they knew that performing a night action was dangerous.

Then

the modpost flat-out said what the consequence was.

The factional ability was useless with the information given to the scumteam. Scum should have been explicitly told in what way affliction interacted with players because from game start, we believed we were the only ones able to afflict.

[Lycanfire]

Wooo!
I got him!
Fuck yeah!

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9mJ82x_l-E[/youtube]

[Lycanfire]

oh yeah, we thought HS was a PR because he seemed to think some players started with items and that he was lying about being afflicted. whatever PR i thought he was, i considered him higher threat over clumsy.

also-i love how one of wraith's posts crumbed PR of kuro's role.