Mini 114 Spongebob Mafia Game Over

[Fuldu]

vote: vIQleS

, because he held up the start of the game.

[Fuldu]

It's been nearly three days and I'm the only one who's been doing any information gathering.

I think the problem is that it's hard to see what you've been doing as information gathering, so much as throwing clods of dirt to see if anything sticks. It's sometimes a useful strategy, so I'm not going to say you shouldn't be doing it, but one of the dangers of it is that it creates incentives for

everyone

else to not participate. It's harder to effectively target someone for suspicious behavior if they haven't done anything. Given the way things are going, I'm inclined to say that it's about time to start prodding lurkers. It's earlier than I'd normally do it, but I've been avoiding posting, precisely to avoid JDTAY's notice, and I've got nothing to hide. I think a different strategy is called for.

[Fuldu]

No, that's going to provide them with ideas for role-claims long before it's going to be helpful to town.

[Fuldu]

Well, reading back over what little has happened so far, I get the scummiest vibe from PopsicleStix' bizarre claim that JDTAY must be scum or a role-blocker. It's not much to go on, but it's what I've got.

unvote: vIQleS; vote: PopsicleStix

[Fuldu]

No, silly, it's the role-blocker part that was weird. Sorry about your grandfather.

[Fuldu]

I have no reason to not believe that claim, if someone else is Gary though then they should counter-claim making JD scum. Right now I think I'm going to Vote: Ashes because she bandwagoned with the ever popular "I agree with everyone else" reason.
_________________
Give a newbie a break

It's not quite enough, even, for an FOS. But I do find it slightly suspicious that Cubsfan4life's reasoning is at odds with the sentiment in his .sig. Ashes is new to the game, and I don't think her actions suggest scumminess as much as they just suggest inexperience.

[Fuldu]

Post count would suggest that Ashes has played substantially less than you have, Morpheus, even if she's been around longer than either of us. "New to the game" was the wrong way of phrasing it, I'll admit, but I was pointing a mild finger of suspicion at Cubsfan for his rationale, not defending Ashes.

[Fuldu]

If my scum-math is correct, we'll need another vote on Ashes for deadline lynch.
Half of 10 is 6, half of 6 is 4. I don't find her behavior especially scummy, but I agree that no lynch is worse than taking a shot at someone who, at least, hasn't claimed something valuable.

unvote: PopsicleStix; vote: Ashes

[Fuldu]

I don't know enough about SpongeBob to read these claims, but I'll take FD's word on it regarding FD.

[Fuldu]

Well, of the four who voted Ashes, FD is dead, I know I'm innocent, and I get a worse feel from bloojay's posts than Cubsfan4life's posts.

vote: bloojay

[Fuldu]

PopsicleStix repeated confounds of FD-the-role and FD-the-participant are beginning to annoy me, but not enough to put a vote on him. I still like my bloojay vote because, as I said, he and Cubsfan4life (you enjoy yesterday's game, by the way?) are the two votes on Ashes I don't know are innocent and bloojay (specialparker, mostly) has seemed scummier than CF4L.

As to whether it was reasonable to expect FD-the-role to be good or evil, I think we ought to put that question aside. After the role claim, FD-the-player was the only one to comment on it, with the suggestion that it was a likely SK role. Since he's dead, we know he didn't have an agenda, and I continue to justify my vote on the basis of that. If someone who disagreed had posted, I might have changed, but no one else did.

[Fuldu]

If we're getting a deadline, can we get a vote count as well?

[Fuldu]

That's a lot of "just townie"s so far. Three confirmed by death, plus JDTAY and PBuG. Assuming just three scum (a low-end estimate), that would be:

Scum
Scum
Scum
Townie - deceased
Townie - deceased
Townie - deceased
Townie - claimed
Townie - claimed
Cop - deceased
Doc - probable
?
?

With two kills a night, I can't think of roles to fill those question marks that don't leave this a strongly pro-scum setup. But, if one of our claimed townies is actually scum, the balance shifts much more neatly. The problem is that both of their claims look reasonable. I suppose one could be a GF identity, which seems more probable for Gary/JDTAY than for PBuG/Mr. Krabs, but that's not enough for me to vote on.

I still like my vote on bloojay, but no one else seems to, so, with a deadline coming up:

unvote: bloojay; vote: PopsicleStix

I found him suspicious day one, and his behavior today has been off, if not obviously scummy.

[Fuldu]

And fuldu I'm not scum, and for that matter how do we know that you're not scum?...

We don't know that I'm not scum (well, I do, but we collectively don't). Barring a possible replacement cop, nobody knows for sure that anybody's not scum. All I'm saying is that you've attracted a fair amount of attention and, at deadline, I think placing my vote on you is a better play than leaving it on someone no one else seems to find suspicious. If it were up to me, I'd rather lynch bloojay, Cubsfan4life, or JDTAY today. But it isn't up to me, none of those choices seems feasible at this stage, and I find lynching you preferable to a no lynch scenario. If we can get a vote count and there's a shift in sentiment toward any of the three players I've mentioned, I'll likely change my vote. I don't think that's probable before tomorrow.

[Fuldu]

I'm annoyed at the fact that, across a three page day, there hasn't been a vote count, even when I requested one. I believe PopsicleStix and PBuG each have two votes, not enough for a deadline lynch. I could switch my vote to PBuG to avoid no lynch, but I really don't want to.

[Fuldu]

Actually, I'm fairly certain of Popsicle's sciumminess. After looking over previous info from my role, Popsiclestix is scum according to it.

While I'm glad to hear it, bloojay, would you care to elaborate on what that means? It isn't quite the same as a cop getting scum results.

[Fuldu]

Well, we presumably have either two or three mafia left, which means we're starting to move into a tight spot. I'm going to go with my hunch and

vote: bloojay

[Fuldu]

So, we have six players left (blackhawk, pull Ashes from the living section of the front page):

Fuldu
JDTAY - claimed Gary, townie
Morpheus
Oswin
PBuG - claimed Mr. Krabs, townie
ViQleS

If there are three mafia, we're dead unless there's both a vig and a back-up doc or roleblocker. (I'm pretty sure my reasoning on that is correct. With an even split, we'll never get a lynch, so we need to go into night with some way of killing more scum than they can kill town. That requires someone who can kill and someone who can protect.) But, that situation isn't possible if both JDTAY and PBuG are telling the truth. Even still, if we know there are three mafia, the best we can hope for is no lynch, and we should do that so as not to make the fatal error of lynching town.

If there are two mafia, we have a chance to win this, but we have to lynch right. I'm inclined to believe that this is the case. My vote has been on bloojay/Oswin for some time, and I'm going to keep it there. I don't have anything specific to go on, but he has just seemed the most off throughout the game.

[Fuldu]

Interesting, though not necessarily meaningful, that the three people with votes on them aren't voting and the three people without votes on them have each chosen a different person.

[Fuldu]

1 3 person mafia with 1 sk. Unlikely as that would be a lot of scum. Actually impossible as the game would be over.

Unlikely I'll agree with, but as I've pointed out it's not impossible. If the townies had a vig and a back-up doc or a roleblocker, no lynch today could (if we were very lucky) turn into a town majority tomorrow.

[Fuldu]

Well, this is going nowhere.

unvote: Oswin; vote: Morpheus

I find them both suspicious, but nothing's happening the way we have things.

[Fuldu]

Well, I can say "Nyeah, nyeah, I told you so."

unvote: Morpheus; revote: Oswin

.

First of all, his result is wrong, and I'd be interested to hear what his other results were. Secondly, why did he wait until after everyone had claimed in order to deliver this guilty result? We've been stalled all day and he never bothered to vote for me. In fact, he still hasn't voted for me. Third, didn't he say he had no idea why bloojay might have "known" PopsicleStix was scum. If he's a backup cop, it seems like he would have had a decent idea what the reason might be.

[Fuldu]

Well, I do think we have to lynch correctly today or the mafia will win, so a gambit like claiming cop is possible. I want to hear Fuldu's role though, he's the only player who has yet to claim.

Yeah, I think the reasons I gave in my previous post, especially the second and third are sufficient. There's no reason that Oswin wouldn't have voted for me earlier in the day if he'd had a guilty result. But, I'll add to the list of reasons the one that I had in the last post and then removed.

Fourth, Oswin was the one who brought up this stupid full claim notion, even though he supposedly had information about who was guilty. Push for a bandwagon on me and try to get me to claim; why risk outing another important role with a mass claim when you have useful information to go on? The whole claim is completely inconsistent with his behavior today.

PBuG, I'm not saying he should have claimed and given his result, but he could have at least tried to get me lynched at some point during the day. The best he has is a comment about having a reason to believe I'm scum that looked enough like a joke that I didn't take it seriously (nor did anyone else). At no point did he vote for me, and, even after coming out, he still didn't. When I'm a cop with a guilty result, I just itch to find the right way to get that vote out there and see what I can do with it. Oswin has done nothing of the sort.

So it puts me in the unenviable position of a) being the only one not to claim, which looks suspicious (especially to PBuG, apparently), b) lying about my role to the town, which, quite frankly, I don't like to do, but I did consider, or c) letting scum know that I'm Old Man Jenkins, the backup doc and (being the only valuable role left) getting killed tonight. So you can see why I was trying to avoid claiming and why I think the mass claim was stupid.

[Fuldu]

We're allowed to talk during twilight, and I promise you that I am who I say I am. I don't watch Spongebob, so I can't tell you who he is.

[Fuldu]

Oswin, I will grant the possibility that you are who you say you are, but I am who I say I am, and not scum. Did you ask for bloojay's previous night results? Did you even consider the possibility that you might not be a sane cop? If you fingered me as scum when you should have been fingering me as innocent, I'm not going to feel the slightest bit sorry for you.

[Fuldu]

O well....and BTW BH gave me the previous night results and they turned up as Pop being SK and Fuldu came up as scum....but BH couldnt remember the other person...but more than likely they were a townie who was dead when I came in....but I highlydoubt that Patrick would be insane.....stupid yes, but insane no....

Blackhawk, if this is what you actually told Oswin his previous results had been, I'd like to lodge a complaint. You can't create an insane cop and then tell his replacement that the result on a dead SK was guilty. I would have believed Oswin if he hadn't been promoting a result that I knew to be untrue.

[Fuldu]

No, that's enough info for me. It was Oswin's screw-up and not blackhawk's. The message said Pops was town when he was actually an SK. Oswin should have known he was insane.

[Fuldu]

One question: After Oswin was lynched shouldn't it have been game over?

No, if they had been foolish enough to target someone other than me and I protected their target, town would still have been in the majority. I actually considered that to be possible, as there was no question that I would have been lynched by Oswin's bad information the following day.