Mini 751: Suzumiya Haruhi Mafia (OVER)

[afatchic]

Okay i have a new idea, since this situation seems to be spurring conversation, and would probably lead to some good scumhunting, i don't like the idea of settling with a seraphim lynch. i think we should scumhunt like normal, and not worry about seraphim. If no one seems scummy enough for a lynch by deadline, we can always lynch seraphim then. But i think real scumhunting, and lynching scum here would be best. then tonight, if we have a vig, the vig can shoot seraphim. and if he isn't night killed, we can talk about a possible lynch tomorrow. The only problem with that is that we may not have a vig, and it lets the scum know one way or another real early about the vig.

[Budja]

You didn't seem to mind settling for a Seraphim lynch earlier. I don't like your sudden change in view.

UnFoS, FoS afatchic

The problem I see with what you said (as I have said before), is that if we keep Seraphim as our backup, our incentive to scumhunt decreases and votes lose pressure.
I am now leaning towards lynching Seraphim simply because of this.

[ortolan]

I don't know why everyone is so quick to assume Seraphim isn't a jester

I mean sure, judging from what I've seen of Tar's games it's unlikely because if he gave a straight jester role to anyone they could just make a claim like Seraphim's (I believe there were other Tar games in which killing a townie yielded information) and win instantly. That said the speed of the wagon, especially in light of the likely unconventional setup was just stupid.

I agree, following the crowd still isn't that great. Assuming that Seraphim was telling the truth, the mafia would probably still want a quick-lynch to reduce the information given to the town.

If malthusis was scum, I think he would have just hammered.

This argument is pretty rubbish. Quickhammering is very rarely a good idea for scum outside of LYOL. Plus they likely have no idea what information Seraphim's death will yield- it might have terrible consequences for them for all they know. Either way attemping to draw conclusions about malthusis' alignment based on his failure to hammer is just stupid.

The problem I see in the "let's scum-hunt, but ultimately lynch Seraphim argument" is in thinking it's actually possible to scumhunt properly when Seraphim's lynch is a foregone conclusion. If we already know who we we're going to lynch the main device for placing pressure on potential scum- voting, loses pretty much all meaning and pretty much means we're just wasting time up until the point we actually do lynch Seraphim.

Looking at Budja's above post:

You didn't seem to mind settling for a Seraphim lynch earlier. I don't like your sudden change in view.

UnFoS, FoS afatchic

The problem I see with what you said (as I have said before), is that if we keep Seraphim as our backup, our incentive to scumhunt decreases and votes lose pressure.
I am now leaning towards lynching Seraphim simply because of this.

I am pretty perplexed here. In the first part you suggest afatchic is worthy of a vote for changing his mind on lynching Seraphim- saying now that we should go through the normal scum-hunting process.

But in the second paragraph, you pretty much agree with what I have said and what he has just come around to. So how does him changing his opinion to match yours make him scummy exactly?

[forbiddanlight]

I don't know why everyone is so quick to assume Seraphim isn't a jester

We basically are saying if Seraphim is a jester, SCREW this, he can win, and then we'll play real mafia. I suppose perhaps given the MS III jesters, we could wait til D2, but still :S.

[Percy]

DGB, could you explain this to me:

OK - I don't like to delay treats.

This was your votepost on Seraphim. Was this a typo, or am I missing something? Are you referring to the lynch as a 'treat'? I don't get it.....

Also, forbiddanlight, could you explain what changed your mind from here:

I'm still debating whether I'll join this wagon or not. It will basically deprive us of a lot of D1 information.

...to this:

Ta hell with it.

Un FoS, FoS Seraphim
Unvote, Vote Seraphim

... in 5 posts and less than 2 hours? You identified correctly that this move would deprive us of information, but decided to push for the lynch. You say that you were backing up your words with action - if that's the case, then great. However, you did put him at (what you thought was) L-2, which is horribly close to an early lynch. How could all this go through your mind in that time? What was the winning argument?


Hypothetical: We lynch Seraphim, and a townie gets NKed.

If we're looking at 3 scum, we'll be at 8v3 at the start of Day 2. If we mislynch, we'll be at 6v3 at the start of Day 3. Mislynch again, and we're at 4v3 - LYLO. This is a worst case scenario, and in this instance it is (probably) in our advantage to have killed Seraphim early.

If we're looking at 4 scum, we'll be at 6v4 on Day 2. Mislynch, and it's game over. Day 4 never even comes close.

Or, you know, there are other combinations, such as 3 mafia and an SK, which would make things even more complicated.

The point is, lynching town might not be a great idea right now. I'm totally down with killing Seraphim before Day 4, but let's start by looking for scum, yes? Otherwise we'll be two townies down on Day 2 with no info. I don't like the sounds of that at all.

[Seraphim]

If you guys can avoid being endgamed by day 4, I should be able to stop LYOL.

[ortolan]

I find this a perplexing claim because even if you lynch correctly during LYOL, barring weird dynamics you're usually still in LYOL the next day.

And assuming the generic 9-3 mini distribution, if we kill you then lynch one scum then mislynch in any either order days 2 or 3 I believe we will still be in LYOL on day 4.

[forbiddanlight]

... in 5 posts and less than 2 hours? You identified correctly that this move would deprive us of information, but decided to push for the lynch. You say that you were backing up your words with action - if that's the case, then great. However, you did put him at (what you thought was) L-2, which is horribly close to an early lynch. How could all this go through your mind in that time? What was the winning argument?

I considered Tar games in general, and know that sometimes he makes us sacrifice a townie to gain information. Then I considered the fact at that point we were probably not going to lynch anyone else, and the fact of the matter is if I say that I support something, I should support it. Finally, my unFoS was brought on when I realized I did bring him to L-2 with malthy's subsequent L-1, and supposed we might want some discussion, and not give the scum the ability to hammer so easily. It was a bit of a conflicting route, but basically my stance now is Seraphim needs to die before D4, possibly D1 even if obvscum appears, though I'm rethinking even THAT stance at this point, since a scum lynch might disable their powers which I assume they each have. (Tar himself said this was basically like a show off all the shiny new roles he came up with)

If we're looking at 3 scum, we'll be at 8v3 at the start of Day 2. If we mislynch, we'll be at 6v3 at the start of Day 3. Mislynch again, and we're at 4v3 - LYLO. This is a worst case scenario, and in this instance it is (probably) in our advantage to have killed Seraphim early.

If we're looking at 4 scum, we'll be at 6v4 on Day 2. Mislynch, and it's game over. Day 4 never even comes close.

If we are looking at 4 scum, we definitely have something to compensate with that would prevent that early a lylo. ESPECIALLY if we have to lynch a townie to prevent bad stuff from happening.

The point is, lynching town might not be a great idea right now. I'm totally down with killing Seraphim before Day 4, but let's start by looking for scum, yes? Otherwise we'll be two townies down on Day 2 with no info. I don't like the sounds of that at all.

What isn't considered here is that Seraphim might not be precisely townie, or town aligned.

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB, could you explain this to me:

OK - I don't like to delay treats.

This was your votepost on Seraphim. Was this a typo, or am I missing something? Are you referring to the lynch as a 'treat'? I don't get it.....

That's not a typo. Seraphim promised us some treat if he was lynched early.

[DrippingGoofball]

I think players that are disputing the Seraphim lynch are afraid to give the town what might be a highly valuable advantage. All these players get 3 scum points from me. Not lynching Seraphim is clearly anti-town.

[veerus]

I don't know why everyone is so quick to assume Seraphim isn't a jester

We basically are saying if Seraphim is a jester, SCREW this, he can win, and then we'll play real mafia. I suppose perhaps given the MS III jesters, we could wait til D2, but still :S.

This isn't Mind Screw. Therefore the possibility of there being a jester is remote. Better question would be for those who are really familiar with the story to try and think if there was a character whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS Brigade. That may substantiate Seraphim's claim.

[Seraphim]

I just want to say the flavor of my role does not reflect my self-sacrifice, at least to my knowledge.

I wish I could be more specific but scum might screw with anything that might happen if they figured out what I am doing.

[PJ.]

V/LA until tomorrow.. I left last night..forgot to post

[roffman]

vote: seraphim, FoS: seraphim

just in case. I've come to the opinion that regardless of any other circumstances, seraphim will be the lynch for the day. If this makes him win as a jester, congrats to him. Otherwise, we are merely wasting time on debates that would be better served by having night 1 information.

[forbiddanlight]

This isn't Mind Screw. Therefore the possibility of there being a jester is remote. Better question would be for those who are really familiar with the story to try and think if there was a character whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS Brigade. That may substantiate Seraphim's claim.

Here's the deal, such role speculation is somewhat scummy. To be fair, I can think of 4 characters off the top of my head who could fit that bill. If you just meant wondering if there is a character, not the name, then it's not so bad.

vote: seraphim, FoS: seraphim just in case. I've come to the opinion that regardless of any other circumstances, seraphim will be the lynch for the day. If this makes him win as a jester, congrats to him. Otherwise, we are merely wasting time on debates that would be better served by having night 1 information.

L-1 already? You dislike discussion? That's more of a scummish stance...

Vote roffman

(i.e. Fos)

[DrippingGoofball]

L-1 already? You dislike discussion? That's more of a scummish stance...

Vote roffman

(i.e. Fos)

Your attempt to scr*w the town out of a beneficial lynch, through delaying tactics, distraction and obstructionism is noted, scumbag.

[forbiddanlight]

Your attempt to scr*w the town out of a beneficial lynch, through delaying tactics, distraction and obstructionism is noted, scumbag.

Never said I wouldn't support the Seraphim lynch. I merely said I don't want it yet. I like discussion. L-2 is very easy to make L-0. L-1 just makes it easy for scum to end discussion.

[veerus]

This isn't Mind Screw. Therefore the possibility of there being a jester is remote. Better question would be for those who are really familiar with the story to try and think if there was a character whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS Brigade. That may substantiate Seraphim's claim.

Here's the deal, such role speculation is somewhat scummy. To be fair, I can think of 4 characters off the top of my head who could fit that bill. If you just meant wondering if there is a character, not the name, then it's not so bad.

That's all I needed. If there is/are character(s) whose self-sacrifice benefited the SOS. If there are, then Seraphim's claim and his subsequent lynch make sense.

Your attempt to scr*w the town out of a beneficial lynch, through delaying tactics, distraction and obstructionism is noted, scumbag.

Never said I wouldn't support the Seraphim lynch. I merely said I don't want it yet. I like discussion. L-2 is very easy to make L-0. L-1 just makes it easy for scum to end discussion.

Was this before or after your bandwagon vote on him?

[Seraphim]

I think it will be very interesting to discern the people with actual doubts about my lynch and the scum who are afraid of me.

Also, where's the mod? A vote count would be nice.

[roffman]

The problem with discussing things now is two fold. Firstly, we waste time. While this is not really a problem, it is annoying. Secondly, by discussing things when everyone knows seraphim is the lynch means people will react differently, i.e., scum won't feel pressure. This means pre-conceived notions and biases will be formed by people. By having these discussions when there is any other potential lynch candidate, or any night information, town gets the huge advantage of actually forcing the reaction from scum.

[Budja]

You didn't seem to mind settling for a Seraphim lynch earlier. I don't like your sudden change in view.

UnFoS, FoS afatchic

The problem I see with what you said (as I have said before), is that if we keep Seraphim as our backup, our incentive to scumhunt decreases and votes lose pressure.
I am now leaning towards lynching Seraphim simply because of this.

I am pretty perplexed here. In the first part you suggest afatchic is worthy of a vote for changing his mind on lynching Seraphim- saying now that we should go through the normal scum-hunting process.

But in the second paragraph, you pretty much agree with what I have said and what he has just come around to. So how does him changing his opinion to match yours make him scummy exactly?

afatchic seems to be changing his stance just to follow popular opinion, scummy? Yes, I think it is a bit.

The problem I see in the "let's scum-hunt, but ultimately lynch Seraphim argument" is in thinking it's actually possible to scumhunt properly when Seraphim's lynch is a foregone conclusion.

I thought exactly like this yes, and then decided that it might just be best to lynch Seraphim. Despite what Percy is saying, I don't think the town can truely be swayed away from a Seraphim lynch and I believe that if Seriphim's demise can benefit the town, so be it. We may as well just do it and dispense of all the WIFOM. I'd say my position is similar to roffman's on this from what I have read.

To put my money where my mouth is -

Unvote, Vote afatchic
UnFos, FoS Seraphim.

[Tarhalindur]

""No way, I see. I've been reading too much, I guess. Your favorite type would be much more on the weird side, and Nagato-san just doesn't fit the profile."

"How do you know my favorite type?"

"I just happened to hear that from Kunikida-san. You were in the same class in junior high, right?"

That bastard, nosing around with such crap. That was just Kunikida's misconception. Please ignore."

- "The Disappearance of Haruhi Suzumiya"

Note to players: Your mod is somewhat V/LA. Not severely V/LA, but it is cutting into vote count frequency.

Speaking of V/LA, Panzer's is noted.

Finally, it's a Tar game. Unvotes and UnFoses are required, people. - Tar

The Second Vote Count (aka the "And You Still Don't Seem To Understand..." Vote Count)

1) Seraphim (4) - DrippingGoofball, afatchic, forbiddanlight, Panzerjager
2) malthusis (1) - roffman
3) DrippingGoofball (0)
4) forbiddanlight (0)
5) Panzerjager (0)
6) veerus (0)
7) ortolan (1) - ortolan
8) roffman (0)
9) Percy (0)
10) Trumpet of Doom (1) - Seraphim
11) Budja (0)
12) afatchic (1) - Budja

Not Voting (4): malthusis, veerus, Percy, Trumpet of Doom

FoS Count

1) Seraphim (6) - Seraphim, DrippingGoofball, afatchic, malthusis, roffman, Budja
2) malthusis (2) - Percy, Panzerjager
3) DrippingGoofball (0)
4) forbiddanlight (1) - veerus
5) Panzerjager (0)
6) veerus (0)
7) ortolan (0)
8) roffman (0)
9) Percy (0)
10) Trumpet of Doom (0)
11) Budja (0)
12) afatchic (0)
Tarhalindur (1) - ortolan

Not FoSing (2): forbiddanlight, Trumpet of Doom

FoS'es Required to Lynch:

7

Current Deadline:

March 10, 2009 at ~6:00 CST (GMT -6)

First Mod Deadline Review:

March 3, 2009 at ~6:00 P.M. CST (GMT -6)

Lynch count has not been reached. Seraphim is at Lynch -1.

[ortolan]

Fine. It's inevitable anyway.

FoS: Seraphim

[Tarhalindur]

"Um..."

Miyokichi said with a trace of nervousness on her elegant face.

"There's someplace I want to go to, is that okay?"

"That's fine."

So we went. If I didn't plan on going, then I would've just broken it off yesterday through the phone. And there was no reason for me to flatly refuse Miyokichi's request.

"Thank you."

- The Indignation of Haruhi Suzumiya ("Editor in Chief? Straight Ahead!")

I repeat: UnFoses are required, people. - Tar

The Third Vote Count (aka the "Not So Fast Bucko" Vote Count)

1) Seraphim (4) - DrippingGoofball, afatchic, forbiddanlight, Panzerjager
2) malthusis (1) - roffman
3) DrippingGoofball (0)
4) forbiddanlight (0)
5) Panzerjager (0)
6) veerus (0)
7) ortolan (1) - ortolan
8) roffman (0)
9) Percy (0)
10) Trumpet of Doom (1) - Seraphim
11) Budja (0)
12) afatchic (1) - Budja

Not Voting (4): malthusis, veerus, Percy, Trumpet of Doom

FoS Count

1) Seraphim (6) - Seraphim, DrippingGoofball, afatchic, malthusis, roffman, Budja
2) malthusis (2) - Percy, Panzerjager
3) DrippingGoofball (0)
4) forbiddanlight (1) - veerus
5) Panzerjager (0)
6) veerus (0)
7) ortolan (0)
8) roffman (0)
9) Percy (0)
10) Trumpet of Doom (0)
11) Budja (0)
12) afatchic (0)
Tarhalindur (1) - ortolan

Not FoSing (2): forbiddanlight, Trumpet of Doom

FoS'es Required to Lynch:

7

Current Deadline:

March 10, 2009 at ~6:00 CST (GMT -6)

First Mod Deadline Review:

March 3, 2009 at ~6:00 P.M. CST (GMT -6)

Lynch count has not been reached. Seraphim is at Lynch -1.

[Tarhalindur]

As an aside, apparently Mind Screw 3 has succeeded in completely filling my PM box. I'll have to set up an alt for action PM's. More details soon. - Tar