Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

[Maemuki]

Right now I'm leaning towards HowardRoark + HackerHuck as the last two scum, mostly by process of elimination.

I took the same conclusion, mostly because of this post:

17 - Suspects Sarag, HH, and HR. Gives NO reasons for any of them.

I don't see scum going out of their way to suspect a person that gave no reads on a town person. I do see scum going out of their way to chainsaw defend their scumbuddies.

[ortolan]

3)Who has been the most effective/least effecting in scumhunting?

Until AlmasterGM picks up the pace, he's still been as helpless as Zakeri. Most effective could be any of the active players: Xylthixlm, Slicey, ortolan to name a few. (*toot* Plus me with this Sarag find. *toot*)

4) Who is the most/least protown? Why are you protown? What have you done anti-town?

I find Sarag least pro-town because he is scum. Excluding him, it's AlmasterGM. DragonsofSummer comes in a close second, but from what little experience I have with him, this seems usual. Xylthixlm's advice has been pro-town. I am pro-town for finding that nugget. I've been less than stellar with my play from replacing through the end of the day.

HowardRoark is highly unlikely to be scum. Tunneling on him is terrible- you were doing it before and you're still doing it even after flips which come close to completely vindicating him.

[Yosarian2]

Until AlmasterGM picks up the pace, he's still been as helpless as Zakeri.

HowardRoark is highly unlikely to be scum. Tunneling on him is terrible- you were doing it before and you're still doing it even after flips which come close to completely vindicating him.

Vindicating him? Are you serious? I'll look at Howard/Sarag interactions when I get the chance, but like I said yesterday, I thought Howard's interactions with Almaster were indicitive of a link.

That quote was the ONLY time Howard mentioned Almaster all game. And that was just to say "Almaster is helpless until he picks up the pace and posts more". That's not an attack at all, it's a plea for a scumbuddy to become more active. And Howard otherwise ignored him completly, even when Xyl, me, and were all starting to push for a lynch of Almaster.

Plus, look at the tone of Howard's posts. When we were at lynch or lose, he was calm and unconcerned, now that town is about to win he seems worried and unhappy.

You want to suspect me, fine. But Howard is about 95% likely to be scum here.

[ortolan]

That's not an attack at all, it's a plea for a scumbuddy to become more active.

The scum can daytalk, he could have just said so there.

Plus, look at the tone of Howard's posts. When we were at lynch or lose, he was calm and unconcerned, now that town is about to win he seems worried and unhappy.

I don't think this is a very good tell.

I would like to see the links you can find though.

[ortolan]

btw on this point

So it appears that you think the scum are incapable of bussing - except for me.

Normally you can't necessarily tell too much about someone if they defended town vs defending scum, after you get the person in question's flip. However this is a unique situation- the scum were one mis"lynch" away from winning. Therefore there would be a bit of a temptation to put all their eggs in one basket and try and route town right there and then, by directing the vig to someone who was town. All my town reads pretty much agreed that Sarag and Almaster were scum. Hacker did not, and Yos said they were scum but he put them below two other people who I think are town on his list. This triggers very very strong alarm bells for me.

As a result of killing Sarag and Almaster town is in a much, much better position. You have to take into account how little scum would want this. As such Hacker and Yos are far and away the best targets. Howard is a horrible target, and he's been attacked by the flipped scum all game.

[Xylthixlm]

Let's see what dead scum had to say about HackerHuck. Most recent from Sarag:

HackerHuck
I know why I think he's scum (see my post 587), but why do other people? I had a town read on him early game when a lot of people thought he was scum and I think the case on him is pretty confused at this stage.

Nice "I think he's scum but you shouldn't believe me" post.


Almaster has ... well, almost no interactions with HackerHuck. There's one fluff exchange:

I don't think I've seen rewq in a little while. He may warrant a closer look.

He asked for a replacement.

And there's one weak not-even-sure-it's-an-attack:

I'm a little surprised by the choice of gunbearer. At first I was happy that Ortolan would be soon revealed as scum, but now I'm wondering whether scum-Ortolan would risk giving DoS the gun.

I don't like this post - it almost seems to be telling DoS to quickshoot ortolan. At the same time, however, I think ortolan is scum. Not sure what to read off it.

And ... that's it.

[Maemuki]

Let's see what dead scum had to say about HackerHuck.

Does that mean we can shoot him now? We'll see about HR when HH has flipped.

You want to suspect me, fine. But Howard is about 95% likely to be scum here.

Hey, Yos, in your opinion should or shouldn't we shoot HH?

Also, just notice how HH was attacking me for attacking Sarag on the beginning of Day 4. Now, he completely forgot about it and

refuses to talk about it

. Let me say this again:

Can we shoot this guy now?

[Yosarian2]

and Yos said they were scum but he put them below two other people who I think are town on his list.

I'm not sure why you keep saying that.

After I went back and did a re-read on Almaster that day , I moved him up to one of the top two lynches. I said so at least twice.

As a result of killing Sarag and Almaster town is in a much, much better position. You have to take into account how little scum would want this. As such Hacker and Yos are far and away the best targets. Howard is a horrible target, and he's been attacked by the flipped scum all game.

Mmm. Early in the game, Alamster went back and fourth between attacking you, Sarag, and Howard. Considering that he was obviously distancing from Sarag, I'm not entirely sure what to make of his attacks on Howard.

Later, he switched over to a tunnel on you (which I pointed out looked pretty scummy). He spent a lot of time saying he wanted to kill you.

Still later, he switched over to attacking Mae.

Yeah, I really don't get much from that. It looks like he really wanted you dead; his attacks on Howard, though, dosn't really look any different from his attacks on his scumbuddy Sarag.

Let me look at Sarag in iso now:

-Ambiguas statements on Bogre
-Fos on Drake
-Attack on Drake, Bogre, and "maybe Yos2 or Dragon of Summer" (his post 18)
-Next, attack on Hacker, Drake, Bogre, with minor attack on Drake and me
-After Bogre flips town, repeats that Hacker is his top suspect
-His post 25 is the first time Sarag questions Howard at all. This post still seems more hostile toards Hacker, though. (with his conclusion about Howard just being a question, while his conclusions about Hacker was

Either interpretation has HackerHuck as scum. I can't think of a town motivation for the way he acted, except just a weird fixation on that comment.

-He then repeats his suggestion that Hacker is scum (post 26)

-In post 27, he agrees with my attack against Howard. This is the first time he's really expressed suspision. In the same post, he also repeats that he "can't think of a townie interpretaiton" of Howard's act
-Post 28, after gunbearer said he was likely to shoot Howard, he said he was "happy with a howard shot"
-Post 30, he's "still comfortable with the cases on HowardRoark and HackerHuck"
-Post 31 he repeats that Howard and hacker are his top 2 suspects, with Mae #3
-Post 32, he just says that he "outlined his case agaisnt Howard yesterday", and he repeats that he is suspicious against Hacker. He also defends Almaster in this post, and quesitons my attack on Almaster.
-His last post, when DoS says " why shouldn't I shoot you?" He responds "You could shoot HowardRoark instead." No mention of Hacker in this post.

Ort, I can't really see how you can look at Sarag's posts and come to the conclusion he was attacking Howard more this game then he was attacking Hacker. Can you explain how you came to that conclusion?

[HackerHuck]

Also, just notice how HH was attacking me for attacking Sarag on the beginning of Day 4. Now, he completely forgot about it and

refuses to talk about it

.

What are you talking about?

[Maemuki]

Also, just notice how HH was attacking me for attacking Sarag on the beginning of Day 4. Now, he completely forgot about it and

refuses to talk about it

.

What are you talking about?

If it were such a slip, how come you didn't notice it?

I answer it, you ignore it.

[HackerHuck]

If it were such a slip, how come you didn't notice it?

...it's not a damn slip if there's not a freaking flip! What, do you think that I can see everyone's role PM's before they flip? Give me a break.

You do realise how this game is played, right? Informed minority = scum = role PM with scumbuddies. Anyway, that's not even the point of the "slip". It was when Alamaster had been putting Sarag high on his scumlist and suddenly dropped all suspicion of her without any reason.

Hmm, actually after reading HackerHuck's 689 I agree that AlmasterGM's turnaround on me does seem pretty scummy. Like he thought "hey - easy target!" (or "hey I'm going to help my scumbuddy push this case") and then when no one cared, he let it go. Some town points to HackerHuck for this find actually.

!!! Wait, is this "Hey my scumbuddy slipped up and now somebody noticed it! Quick! Call HH town 'cause he did that!"

Also Almaster said that Sarag was probrably scum. Then we get to D3, where did that suspicion go to?

You were the one who called it out as a slip when you read Sarag's post. My question was why you didn't identify it as a slip earlier. If anything, you ignored my question with a non-answer.

Since you believe that I'm scum, I'm curious how you reconcile it with this post of Sarag's. Up until that post she had spent my entire time in-game calling me out as scum. I noticed Alamaster's odd turnaround on Sarag, so she decides that I'm not as scummy, but now Alamaster is. If I'm scum, why would she just move from one scum to another?

[Maemuki]

Eeeeh, HH, no point on discussing whether Almaster or Sarag are scum, they're dead, and they're scum!

Since you believe that I'm scum, I'm curious how you reconcile it with this post of Sarag's. Up until that post she had spent my entire time in-game calling me out as scum. I noticed Alamaster's odd turnaround on Sarag, so she decides that I'm not as scummy, but now Alamaster is. If I'm scum, why would she just move from one scum to another?

HH, meet this magical concept known as...

bussing.

You were the one who called it out as a slip when you read Sarag's post. My question was why you didn't identify it as a slip earlier. If anything, you ignored my question with a non-answer.

I didn't because I didn't pay attention.

I repeat DoS, please shoot this guy.

[HackerHuck]

Eeeeh, HH, no point on discussing whether Almaster or Sarag are scum, they're dead, and they're scum!

You were the one annoyed that I was ignoring it

Since you believe that I'm scum, I'm curious how you reconcile it with this post of Sarag's. Up until that post she had spent my entire time in-game calling me out as scum. I noticed Alamaster's odd turnaround on Sarag, so she decides that I'm not as scummy, but now Alamaster is. If I'm scum, why would she just move from one scum to another?

HH, meet this magical concept known as...

bussing.

According to Xyl, the scum were ignoring me. I know very well that you're familiar with the concept of bussing. I was asking why thought scum would supposedly unbus one person to just bus another.

You were the one who called it out as a slip when you read Sarag's post. My question was why you didn't identify it as a slip earlier. If anything, you ignored my question with a non-answer.

I didn't because I didn't pay attention.

Why wouldn't you pay attention to two people that you thought were scummy?

[HowardRoark]

I think that seeing the result of a shot at Yosarian2 would solidify reads on HackerHuck (who he has been defending), Xylthixlm (where there has been a lot of support for each other), and Nachomamma8 (where there was more suspicion during the attacks on Xylthixlm and a town read after they stopped).

Howard's last post is pretty funny though. Did anyone else read it as: "No, don't shoot Yos now, because then he'll shoot me. Let's see if we can mislynch one more townie today and then get the gunbarer to shoot Yos tomorrow."

If you are town and we shot you today, you might be likely shoot me, and we'd be in LyLo again. How would I as scum benefit from a bad shot today (4+1:2), a shot at a town you (3+1:2), and you shooting me next?

17 - Suspects Sarag, HH, and HR. Gives NO reasons for any of them.

*whistles* More reasons to shoot HH!

Right now I'm leaning towards HowardRoark + HackerHuck as the last two scum, mostly by process of elimination.

I took the same conclusion, mostly because of this post:

17 - Suspects Sarag, HH, and HR. Gives NO reasons for any of them.

Why only focus on HackerHuck in 748?

After I went back and did a re-read on Almaster that day , I moved him up to one of the top two lynches.

663: "my main suspects are Howard and Maemuki", "Sarag seems a reasonable suspect, but I'm a little wishy washy on that one."
(re-read)
664: "Almaster could be scum."
682: "That leaves Howard, Mae, Hacker, Sarag, and Almester."
683: Xylthixlm names Sarag and AlmasterGM as the good shots.
686: ortolan names Sarag and AlmasterGM as primary concerns with some concern about Yosarian2.
689: HackerHuck includes AlmasterGM in his four scum list.
691: Sarag names AlmasterGM in his four player scum list.
693: Maemuki believes in a Sarag and AlmasterGM scum team.
695: " My current main two choices are Howard and Almaster, with Almaster probably being the most obvious kill today. Sarag and Mae are also probably scum."
696: "Almaster is very likely scum here."
The re-read wasn't when you moved him into your top two. It was only after others endorsed him.

@mod: Please prod Nachomamma8

More to follow.

[Elmo]

Nachomamma8 & DragonsofSummer have been prodded.

[HowardRoark]

Here we are in D3 Lylo . . .

Sarag only started bussing AlmasterGM after AlmasterGM appeared on several scum lists. Town point: HowardRoark, HackerHuck, Maemuki.
AlmasterGM's list only gives us still unknowns.
ortolan sticks with Sarag and adds AlmasterGM after Xylthixlm's two list.
Xylthixlm started with HackerHuck but reasonably switched to Sarag and AlmasterGM. +Town points.
HackerHuck defended Sarag, and added AlmasterGM after he was listed a lot. Didn't mention Sarag from the short list. +Scum point.
Nachomamma8 was indecisive on AlmasterGM until late and only mentioned Sarag once. +Scum points.
Yosarian2 is uncertain about Sarag and wekly adds AlmasterGM after a re-read. Moves AlmasterGM to top two and Sarag to next two. Moves AlmasterGM to #1 after a prod from Sarag. +Scum points.
Maemuki comes in late with Sarag #1 and adds AlmasterGM later.


Short D4 events . . .

Maemuki goes after Sarag immediately. I have difficulty seeing scum bussing that quickly. +Town points.
HackerHuck again defends Sarag. +Scum point.
ortolan wants Sarag. +Town points.
Yosarian2 and Xylthixlm follow with votes for Sarag.


That gives me Nachomamma8 and Yosarian2 as the scummiest.

@Nachomamma8: You came into the game with an attack on Xylthixlm. Yosarian2 seemed to distract you from that. You also suddenly drop your interaction with Yosarian2. You don't mention them again until after DragonsofSummer asked you who should not be shot. At that point you say that Xylthixlm and Yosarian2 are most the pro-town players. Explain your reads of Xylthixlm and Yosarian2.

@Yosarian2: In iso 60 you say that you are less suspicious of Nachomamma8 without ever having expressed suspicion. In iso 70 you exclude Nachomamma8 from the all four of the scum are in this group of five list with an air of uncertainty. In iso 76 you question Xylthixlm's plan to shoot everyone but Xylthixlm, ortolan, and yourself by saying, "if we shoot me and then I'm wrong about, say, Nacho, town could still lose" without ever mentioning switching your view of Nachomamma8 to a solid town read. Please elaborate on your evolving read of Nachomamma8.

[ortolan]

this game's over. Kill HackerHuck who is obv-scum then shoot Yos, on the off-chance Yos is town he can go and kill HowardRoark, who he is "95% sure is scum".

[DragonsofSummer]

shoot HackerHuck

[HackerHuck]

Oh well, I'm sorry I wasn't convincing enough. I'm also smart enough to realise that being wrong isn't the same as being scummy. That should allow some of you to worry a little less.

[Elmo]

DragonsofSummer turns towards HackerHuck with a maniacal grin on his face. Unfortunately, in his haste for more bloodshed, he trips and the gun slips from his fingers. Stuck on full auto, it starts to spray bullets everywhere, bouncing off the walls and ceiling until it falls neatly into HackerHuck's hand. Oddly, no-one but the original holder was stuck by the flying lead - and he's now in no condition to make use of it.

Day 6 dawns!
The

deadline

is Friday 12th February, 22:00 UTC, which is 18 days, 14 hours and 49 minutes from this post.

[ortolan]

"your overconfidence is your weakness"
"your faith in your friends is yours"

[Maemuki]

"your overconfidence is your weakness"
"your faith in your friends is yours"

QFT.

Ok, since HH is town now, we have two choices: Yos and HR. I'm happy with either of those.

[ortolan]

I don't think we should be hasty

[Yosarian2]

I've been saying for about 4 days now that the scum are (Howard, Mae, Sarag, and ALmaster). It seems most likely that I was correct on all 4 counts.

Not sure why people didn't listen to me and just shoot Howard earlier, it's been so incredibly obvious he was scum for days now.

Ort lost some town points with the way he acted yesterday, his bogus defense of Howard and then the way he refused to answer my questions in post 757 and instead just told the gunbarer to shoot hacker or me; that's forced me to consider the possibility of an Ort/Howard scumteam, because I don't understand why a town-ort would act so confident on his read of Hacker while insisting that the much scummier Howardr had to be town, to the point where Ort was actually attacking me for daring to disgree with him on Howard.

Still, I don't think that's likely; I'm pretty sure the scumteam is Howard/Mae, especally with that incredibly scummy post Mae made at the start of the day today; I don't believe there's any possible way town-Mae could really be suffering from the delusion that I could be scum with Howard at this point.

In any case, let's shoot the obv-scum Howard today, then we can find his last scum buddy tommorow.

[Maemuki]

Hey, Yos, some people say that you're scum, but they're not delusional to you, are they?

And I like my opinions, tyvm. If you disagree with them, k, but please don't attack me just because I disagree with you.

Because that post just looks like OMGUS. <3!