Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!


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Post Post #675 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 6:22 am

Post by HowardRoark »

@Maemuki: Sorry. Why HackerHuck and myself?
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Post Post #676 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 1:18 pm

Post by DragonsofSummer »

Alright, sorry that took me a bit longer than planned, but here are my questions/demands for everyone.

Ortolan: Now that you have seen one person on your list flip town does it give you any pause as to the others on your list? Why/why not? Do you still find your scum hunting ability to be better than everyone else in this game?

Xylthixlm: Why should I not shoot anyone on your list of people not to shoot today (with detailed reasoning)?

HowardRoark, Maemuki, AlmasterGM, Sarag, HackerHuck: I would like detailed explanations of the people on your scum lists with post numbers to back up your thinking (if the post numbers are in iso just let me know).

Yosarian2, Nachomamma8: What people do you think I should not shoot today (with your reasoning)?
"I want you to hit me as hard as you can."
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Post Post #677 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 2:31 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

You shouldn't shoot me because I'm obviously town.

You shouldn't shoot Yosarian2 because I have a good meta read on him, and he's definitely town this game.

You shouldn't shoot ortolan, despite his stupid and obnoxious "shoot me so I can shoot the scum" schtick, because I think he's probably town. Yos claims evidence of him acting similarly overconfident in other games, which lessens the single biggest point against him. He's actively scumhunting, and his scum list seems to be based on reasons - as I've reread various people I've noticed my scumlist has largely converged with ortolan's. That's a very good sign that he's town.

You shouldn't shoot HowardRoark because, well, I can't find any reasons you
should
shoot HowardRoark. His play has been solid if unspectacular, and the only reason I've suspected him all game is WIFOMy "he seems too protown" nonsense.

Of the remaining 5 players, I'm pretty confident HackerHuck, Sarag, and AlamasterGM are all scum. I'm not sure about Maemuki vs Nachomamma. Nachomamma has been aggressively stupid, and replaced a couple of moderately scummy players. On the other hand, Maemuki has been heavily lurking, and has managed to leave absolutely no clues about her alignment - which is a pretty good scumtell by itself.
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Post Post #678 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 2:41 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Yosarian2: What are you seeing on Howard?
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Post Post #679 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 2:50 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

Xylthixlm wrote:Yosarian2: What are you seeing on Howard?
Along with everything I said yesterday, Howard's basically said next to nothing at all today, and seems to be trying to go unnoticed.
HowardRoark wrote:@AlmasterGM: Concerning 647, what exactly is interesting? Spell it out for me.

@DragonsofSummer: Sarag still tops my list. I'll give you two more after some review.
HowardRoark wrote:My next two would be Maemuki or HackerHuck.
HowardRoark wrote:@Maemuki: Top three suspects.
HowardRoark wrote:@Maemuki: Sorry. Why HackerHuck and myself?
That's all he's said today. Town don't go into stealth/lurk mode in lynch or lose; scum do.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #680 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 2:58 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Ehhhh. I don't like the lurk mode at all, but not much has happened recently since our gunbearers have been inactive. I've been (comparatively) lurking myself.

I can sort of see a possibility of HackerHuck being scum, but he's #6 on my list. I strongly discourage a shot on him today.
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Post Post #681 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 2:59 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

EBWOP:
Xylthixlm wrote:Ehhhh. I don't like the lurk mode at all, but not much has happened recently since our gunbearers have been inactive. I've been (comparatively) lurking myself.

I can sort of see a possibility of
HowardRoark
being scum, but he's #6 on my list. I strongly discourage a shot on him today.
DOH.

I keep getting those two names confused.
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Post Post #682 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 3:00 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

DragonsofSummer wrote: Yosarian2, Nachomamma8: What people do you think I should not shoot today (with your reasoning)?
I would not shoot Xyl, Ort, or Nacho.

I'm pretty confident that Xyl is town, more confident then I am of anyone else. He's seemed obvtown all game to me.

Ort...I don't think he would have played the way he has if he was scum. I also really don't think he would have made you gunbarer if he was scum.

Nacho, I'm a little more unsure of, but the way he directly went after Xyl even though everyone else in the game thought he was obvtown, but then was actually willing to listen to counterarguments and re-consider his points, and his thought process in general to me, just looks like town honestly trying to find scum to me.

That leaves Howard, Mae, Hacker, Sarag, and Almester. Out of those 5, I'm really not feeling the Hacker lynch; mostly because Mae, Howard, and Sarag have all been uber-attacking him all game (often in ways that seem out of proportion to what he actually did) and I have trouble coming up with a likely 4 man scum group that includes him; it could have been that his whole scum group just decided early on to bus him, but that'd be kind of an odd decision, IMHO. In any case, I currently believe that the 4 scum are within that 5 man group.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #683 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 4:42 pm

Post by Xylthixlm »

Combining my town/uncertain list with Yos's, I think the people who are left as good shots for today are Sarag and AlmasterGM.
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Post Post #684 (ISO) » Thu Jan 14, 2010 5:25 pm

Post by Nachomamma8 »

DragonsofSummer wrote: What people do you think I should not shoot today (with your reasoning)?

Xyl & Yos: They're our 2 most protown players right now; they're active, they present good logic, and they're aggressive. Xyl I'm less sure of, but he's being active in LyLo, aggressive, and unafraid, so... protown.

Maemuki: I don't have a good enough read on her. She's lurked into oblivion since her little spurt of activity in the beginning, and I really don't think we should shoot a lurker like her today.

Ort: Ort isn't afraid of going against the crowd, and he's very vocal with his opinions. He calls a lot of town reads, which would be trapping himself in a corner if he was scum. Finally, he wouldn't be stupid enough to attack DoS as strong as he did, then give him the gun.
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Post Post #685 (ISO) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 2:28 am

Post by Elmo »

ortolan, HackerHuck, Sarag & AlmasterGM have been prodded.

The
deadline
is Wednesday 27th January, 22:00 UTC, which is 11 days, 8 hours and 31 minutes from this post.
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Post Post #686 (ISO) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 2:41 am

Post by ortolan »

DoS wrote:Ortolan: Now that you have seen one person on your list flip town does it give you any pause as to the others on your list? Why/why not? Do you still find your scum hunting ability to be better than everyone else in this game?
Actually if anything it makes me think the scum are wifoming heavily (see: Sarag) and all the other people on my list may be accurate. I feel especially strongly about Sarag and Almaster (less so about Hacker). I actually dislike the way I feel Yos, in LYOL, seems to be leading you towards two people I think will be misvigs- Howard and Maemuki, yet retaining suspicions of Sarag and Almaster should it all go pear-shaped. If Yos were scum, and those players town, he would be leading you towards a likely scum victory but is retaining enough town-cred should you happen to shoot a scum today so that his web of deceit wouldn't unravel.

Xyl and Nacho are disgustingly obvious town (not that this is even relevant).

Basically you really need to kill Sarag today. Look at the people who are directing you away from her when she was all but a guaranteed vig yesterday. Yep, that's her scumteam, trying to seize victory before we've even got our bearings in the game by fragging one of them.
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Post Post #687 (ISO) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 9:35 am

Post by HackerHuck »

Sorry about the delay in answering questions. The site issues have made it a little difficult to go back through and get post citations, but I should have enough time to get through it today.
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Post Post #688 (ISO) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 6:47 pm

Post by HowardRoark »

@DragonsofSummer:

Sarag's 360 scum slip. Done.

Maemuki replaced Slicey on whom I had a gut scum read. Since replacing has not done any scum hunting. Just look at the iso.

HackerHuck's 462 dismisses my Sarag find without any thought, even though he's been back-and-forth on her.


@Yosarian2: Maybe try looking at my site-wide posting. I'm in a limited access situation. Also, please show me where I have been "uber-attacking" HackerHuck all game. He didn't come onto my short list until D2.
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Post Post #689 (ISO) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 7:43 pm

Post by HackerHuck »

I basically focused on Howard, Maemuki/Slicey, Nacho/Rewq, and Alamaster/Zakeri. The others I feel are town enough or that they wouldn't be strong enough suspects to risk LYLO over. Basically these four are my most likely suspects.

Howard:
post 399 sets the stage. He takes a very strong position that everyone on the Bogre wagon should have known better. Much like Slicey, this is a little odd considering that he was also supportive of the Bogre lynch. I felt that his overall actions at the start of day 2 were off. He seemed to be throwing mud at Xyl to see if anything would stick (392, 398, 399 - by 450, he admits that Xyl is most pro-town). Then once he begins to talk about his big scumtell, he starts to be less helpfull. Look at Yos' 419. It's interesting how Howard seemed to flip-flop on Bogre as the momentum shifted toward him and then he came in at the beginning of day 2 like he knew Bogre had to be town. The whole reveal scenario was also a little scummy to me. Howard comes in acting like he found a smoking gun and proceeds to try and lead the town about. Considering he should have been working on Bogre, his behaviour seems like he was trying to build town support for his case so that Bogre's death wouldn't fall back on his shoulders.
The only thing that has started to cast doubt to me, is that I'm having a bit of trouble trying to see who else in this group of four could be a partner. With four surviving scum, I would think that at least two of them would have to be in this group.


Maemuki:
Slicey - Mostly town read until post 387. I really wish that Slicey were around to explain it. This post was a little dicey - as called out by Howard. What really gets me now is that Slicey had been pretty solid on the Bogre wagon, but just acted like he knew Bogre was town. I really don't like that response. I'm just not sure what it means that Howard caught it.
Maemuki - not so good. Very lurkerish (in plain sight) and I don't really know what she's thinking except that Xyl isn't that townish and that Sarag is scum. I'd quote something, but if you just look at her in iso, it's pretty apparent.

Nachmamma:
Looking at Rewq's post 321, I'm not understanding what he's trying to say. He seems to believe that Bogre is scum, but then he agrees with Xyl about a post that implies that Bogre is town. It seems like it could be buttering up of Xyl, but I'm not sure how much town cred Xyl had at that point. Rewq then seems to want to put some dents in Xyl's armour.
rewq455 wrote:
Xylthixlm starts the Bogre wagon based on his reaction to the "don't act scummy" post. Xylthixlm continues to push the Bogre is scum mantra while giving himself an "out" a few times (51 & 81). There's also the fact that he was willing to have Vala Mal Doran die in order for Bogre to die sooner (84). Overall, Xylthixlm doesn't look good in hindsight.
Good point.... this kills 2 townies. Townies we can't afford to lose.... if there are as many townies as mafia, we lose..... Bogre be carefull about your your shot.
rewq455 wrote:@ BogrePlease re-write why you think Rite and his replacement are scummy.
While I thought this was a good post at the time, it does seem odd that he would ask the gunbearer this question. After that, there's not really any scum hunting that I could see. He quotes a lot with little one-liners that might try to pick at a comment here and there, but he's more or less playing devil's advocate to everyone and not supporting his stances.
Nacho comes in and makes a big push against Xyl and was pretty stubborn about it. He seemed to justify himself pretty well, so I didn't really find that scummy. What is scummy, is the fact that he hasn't done anything else except argue with Yos about Xyl. The most analysis he's done except for commenting on Xyl is in his most recent post.

Alamaster:
Zakeri - Nothing really to note. I found him to be pretty unscummy.
Alamaster - I found his choice of Howard as his top scum to be very OMGUSsy, but in looking at the back and forth, I could see Alamaster doing a little bussing. When he jumped on board with the Sarag tell, that felt a little off. I found this turnaround a little strange because it wasn't really explained. He went from wanting Sarag dead to leaving her off of his list of three and Howard landed back on it.
AlmasterGM in post 474 wrote:If I had the gun, I would shoot either ortolan or Saraag right now.

Ortolan because of what just happened.

Saraag because he hasn't posted in a while, which is odd given HR's offensive claims.
AlmasterGM in post 588 wrote:Shoot ortolan already. He's scum. I'd also be satisfied with offing DOS or HR (HR because 1) I agree with Yosarian2's case and 2) HR isn't doing anything other than saying "hay guy, look at that awesome scumtell I found on Sarg.")
I don't really find these quotes to support a Howard/Alamaster scumteam, but I could see scum-Alamaster forgetting that he was bussing scum-Sarag.
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Post Post #690 (ISO) » Sat Jan 16, 2010 9:01 pm

Post by AlmasterGM »

Prod received, apologies for not posting. Will reply shortly.
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Post Post #691 (ISO) » Sun Jan 17, 2010 3:42 am

Post by Sarag »

HowardRoark
I outlined my case on him yesterday in my post 587. I also agree with the last paragraph of Yosarian2's post 605.

HackerHuck
I know why I think he's scum (see my post 587), but why do other people? I had a town read on him early game when a lot of people thought he was scum and I think the case on him is pretty confused at this stage.

Maemuki (Slicey)
Hmmm, Maemuki replaced Slicey, I'd forgotten that. I had a pretty strong town read on Slicey. Re-reading now, his play could be interpreted as hopping on the easy bandwagons but I did like his questions and thought he gave good reasons for his reads. He didn't really do anything controversial or risky though, so may have been playing a safe game, which is more likely to come from scum. Maemuki's play, on the other hand, is weak. She's playing like it's early game but it really isn't anymore. She asked questions on replacing in but instead of following through, has seemed to just flake.

AlmasterGM (Zakeri)
Rereading Zakeri I actually quite like his play. He was lurky, but his posts were good when they were made. I find it easy to follow his thought processes. I also liked Almaster's pressuring of Howard, and his other posts. For some reason I wasn't noticing him much and thinking of him as a lurker almost as bad as DoS but reading his posts, they're actually decent. Not amazing, but I see nothing damning there.

I'm finding Xyl, ort and Yos' listing him as scum kinda weird today. Why exactly do you all think he is scum? Also, please remember to fact-check... e.g.:
Yosarian2 wrote:Hmmm...yeah, Almaster could be scum. It's notable that really all he's commented on for most of the game is his attacks on Ortolan.
Yos said this after apparently re-reading Almaster but it simply isn't true- he pressured Howard a fair bit, and he also weighed in on my "scum slip".

And this complaint of Howard's applies to me too:
HowardRoark wrote:Also, please show me where I have been "uber-attacking" HackerHuck all game. He didn't come onto my short list until D2.
I thought rite was town, I only thought the slot was scum after HackerHuck replaced in and said how concerned he was that Bogre might shoot him and Xyl.



I haven't re-read nacho, Yos or Xyl yet.

AlmasterGM wrote:
Maemuki wrote:Sarag, do you really want a dead-weight gunbearer? Do you really really want DoS to be the gunbearer? Don't think so. shooting scummy people > shooting lurkish people
This post is pretty interesting given who was selected as gunbearer.
Why do you think this post is interesting?
AlmasterGM wrote:So if ortolan improves, would you still shoot him? How do you evaluate all that scummy shenanigans from yesterday?
I've never advocated shooting ortolan. I've been frustrated lately because I think he's town but he's stubbornly convinced I'm scum and has been pretty opaque about his reads. He did revise HackerHuck, but he hasn't explained why.

@ortolan: I'm not sure why you're so convinced I'm scum. There doesn't actually appear to be a case on me. I just re-read you in iso and you never gave a reason. And this is simply false:
ortolan wrote:she was all but a guaranteed vig yesterday.
Bogre said he had a weak scum read on me, with a stronger scum read on Nacho and Howard. Stop the rhetoric please. You shouldn't have to make things up.

@Xyl - What do you think of HowardRoark going back and forth on you? Do you disagree with Yosarian2's interpretation of his actions (post 605)?
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Post Post #692 (ISO) » Sun Jan 17, 2010 9:28 am

Post by Xylthixlm »

HackerHuck wrote:I basically focused on Howard, Maemuki/Slicey, Nacho/Rewq, and Alamaster/Zakeri. The others I feel are town enough or that they wouldn't be strong enough suspects to risk LYLO over.
^ scum
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Post Post #693 (ISO) » Sun Jan 17, 2010 10:11 am

Post by Maemuki »

@ Sarag,
I thought rite was town
Haha - oh wait you're serious. Yeeeeeaaaaah, why?
She's playing like it's early game but it really isn't anymore.
Nooooo D3 isn't early game I never knew that. Pointing fingers without reasoning is bad.
Why do you think this post is interesting?
Even I can see that - and my vision is not that good. I said that we probrably shouldn't shoot DoS over a person, and guess who became the gunbearer?

I am believing an Sarag/AlmasterGM scumteam now. She looks like "Hey, just look! There are scummier people than my buddy *attackattackattack*"

Sorry if this seems OMGUS. It isn't.

More tomorrow when I don't have to worry about an exam.
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Post Post #694 (ISO) » Sun Jan 17, 2010 3:52 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

HowardRoark wrote: @Yosarian2: Maybe try looking at my site-wide posting. I'm in a limited access situation. Also, please show me where I have been "uber-attacking" HackerHuck all game. He didn't come onto my short list until D2.
(shrug) Ok, you've been attacking Hacker since day 2.

My point was that I don't really see you being scum with Hacker based on how you've been attacking him, and for that matter, I'm having trouble coming up with any likely 4 man hacker-group.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #695 (ISO) » Sun Jan 17, 2010 3:58 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

ortolan wrote: I actually dislike the way I feel Yos, in LYOL, seems to be leading you towards two people I think will be misvigs- Howard and Maemuki, yet retaining suspicions of Sarag and Almaster should it all go pear-shaped.
Eh? My current main two choices are Howard and Almaster, with Almaster probably being the most obvious kill today. Sarag and Mae are also probably scum.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #696 (ISO) » Sun Jan 17, 2010 4:04 pm

Post by Yosarian2 »

Sarag wrote: Yos said this after apparently re-reading Almaster but it simply isn't true- he pressured Howard a fair bit, and he also weighed in on my "scum slip".
Eh, he had a few comments on day 1 that were directed at Howard, but they were pretty mild and fuzzy. His attacks on Ort are pretty much the most significant thing he's done all game, it's really the only time I've seen him take a stand on anything. Almaster is very likely scum here.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie
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Post Post #697 (ISO) » Mon Jan 18, 2010 2:48 pm

Post by Elmo »

DragonsofSummer, ortolan & Nachomamma8 have been prodded.
Succinctness is pro-town.

Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
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Post Post #698 (ISO) » Mon Jan 18, 2010 4:18 pm

Post by DragonsofSummer »

Almaster needs to post or severely risk being shot.

Sarag, besides your thinking Mae is "flaky" do you have any other reason to suspect her, and is that the only reason you switched from a strong town read on slicey to a scum read on Mae?

Hacker same question as Sarag.

Ort are you saying you feel Yos is scum now?

Mae you still need to actually respond to my question as well.

HR are you really basing two of your cases on one post from each of the players, and the other on gut at this point in the game?

My short list:
HH
HR
Sarag
Almaster

Needs to answer me:
Mae
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Post Post #699 (ISO) » Mon Jan 18, 2010 4:19 pm

Post by DragonsofSummer »

Ebwop: To those on my short list why shouldn't I shoot you?
"I want you to hit me as hard as you can."
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