Mini 886 - Popcorn Mafia - Game over!

[rewq455]

Page 5

On the contrary, I'm a little concerned that there is too much focus on Bogre, despite my hand in it. I think it's a real risk that lurker scum could be kicking back, enjoying the show at this point. Bogre has had this much bad attention because he wasn't very good at defending himself. I'm clearly not reluctant to defend myself from attacks that have actual substance - see the majority of my last post.

But how do you tell the difference between a town player that can't defend, and a scum player that can't defend?

[Yosarian2]

Huh, I just got prodded, which is kind of odd since I posted right before I went away for the weekend.

Anyway, glad to see Rewq is working his way though the thread. So far, don't really disagree with anything he's saying, especially about Bogre obviously.

[Bogre]

So far, Bogre seems like the most scummy person in the game, but not enough for a lynch (shooting).

Uhhh, what is this? You should be pushing for my lynch if you think I am that scummy, not hardcore waffling and trying to appear involved but really being soft.

What you have done is essentially hop on the 'easy' sentiment, i.e. that of people who have disliked my cavalier actions earlier, and said 'Bogre is scummy'.

@Yos: This is what I was talking about with Hackerhuck. It's a boon, actually, that its kind of easy to pick out people going for easy arguments to make it look like they're playing.

[Vala Mal Doran]

Hoping rewq finishes his analysis soon; I'd like to wrap up the day within the next 36 hours or so if possible.

[rewq455]

So far, Bogre seems like the most scummy person in the game, but not enough for a lynch (shooting).

Uhhh, what is this? You should be pushing for my lynch if you think I am that scummy, not hardcore waffling and trying to appear involved but really being soft.

What you have done is essentially hop on the 'easy' sentiment, i.e. that of people who have disliked my cavalier actions earlier, and said 'Bogre is scummy'.

@Yos: This is what I was talking about with Hackerhuck. It's a boon, actually, that its kind of easy to pick out people going for easy arguments to make it look like they're playing.

That was page 5 of 12 (I think.) I want to read everything before I say I want you shot.

[Elmo]

The

deadline

is Wednesday 16th December, 22:00 UTC, which is 1 day, 21 hours and 54 minutes from this post.

[rewq455]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Almost agree. I don't think ort is scum, at least not yet.

What about now?

Do you honestly think ort would defend all his scumbuddies?

So, your argument is that Ort is defending Borgre, so you don't think they're scum together? That seems completely backwards to me; it's basically the bad kind of WIFOM. In reality, scum do defend each other all the time.

In this game, scum do not have a night kill. That advantage is gone, so the scum need to stick together.

[rewq455]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Almost agree. I don't think ort is scum, at least not yet.

What about now?

Do you honestly think ort would defend all his scumbuddies?

So, your argument is that Ort is defending Borgre, so you don't think they're scum together? That seems completely backwards to me; it's basically the bad kind of WIFOM. In reality, scum do defend each other all the time.

No, it's that he's defending Bogre, Sarag and Drake, all three who I think have a chance to be scum. If some of them end up being town, then yes, I think there's a chance ort is scum.

I am seeing Ort playing as a very protective town member, instead of a poor scummy member. He seems to be protecting to many people though. I think that there is a good chance that Bogre is scum and that Ort is protecting him wrongly. Also, I agree that he seems to be a good enough player that if he were scum, he would not defend all of his scum buddies.

[rewq455]

I just iso read Xyl again, he's playing pretty much exactly like he did in LAL, ergo he's very likely to be town. That doesn't mean his scumlist doesn't suck though.

Some ones actions in one game do not completely reflect there actions in another though.

[rewq455]

Checking in because I've been prodded. Sorry I've been busy, new job.

Honestly, I don't have much new to add. Xyl's list pretty much corresponds to my "suspicious" list, though I wouldn't go as far to say that I'm confident that all or the majority of them are scum.

Bogre's still my number one scum guess, Vala, I want to make sure that's clear.

Latching onto a seemingly aggressive town player's scum list for lack of any actual content to add? Check. Further irony of echoing the sentiments of a player who hasn't reasoned his own suspicions? Check.

It occurs to me that correct play as a townie is to encourage being shot, but that the way to avoid being shot is not to try and avoid being shot. Which is a bit of a mindfuck, but the last thing a scum wants is to be shot: it's a huge momentum swing, etc. Townies, on the other hand, should want the gun, or at least not be averse to it. Bogre's "don't shoot me I'm town" attitude makes even less sense in this light, especially in regards to his appeal to Vala's life.

Of course, the other way to hypothetically avoid being shot is to lurk. But it doesn't seem like a prudent strategy to do so here (somebody already brought up LAL), since shooting a random lurker is even less risky than it normally is - there's no night to reckon with. I'm yammering away and most of this comes down to WIFOM, I suppose.

Vala, your suspicion of Vaya I presume comes from his complete lack of posting so far. What about Zakeria? Is there any reason to keep your suspicions so close to the chest? Or was that even a conscious decision?

Yeah.... I admit that that was a pretty stupid post and a way to look active without having to even do a read over.

[rewq455]

Secondly- You're bending before the gunbearer. Trying to get back under the radar? You're right- weaseling out from under the gun is a scum tell. And that's what you're doing.

So a townie should let him self be shot?

This means that townies prioritizing hunting scum and not becoming horridly concerned with making themselves look good and not scummy won't confuse the gunbearer as to who's vacillating.

They want to look not scummy. As I said before, the death of a townie hurts the full team.

[rewq455]

Scum: Bogre, Sarag, ortolan, DraketheFake

Still happy about this list. Sarag has the potential to remove himself if he starts actually playing. The other three had better hope that someone else does something really really scummy, because otherwise they'll be my top suspects for a while...

I have no scum tells on Sarag... I am pretty sure none were previously stated either.

[Xylthixlm]

IIRC Sarag started acting scummy after I posted that.

[rewq455]

between Drake and Rite however, I can't really decide. They both have almost equal amounts of "trying-to-look-like-they're-helping-without-actually-doing-so", with the large difference to me being that Drake is slightly more unpleasant in attitude. between the two of them, it's likely there isn't a wrong answer.

Handy probability trick: The question "Who is more likely to be scum, A or B?" always has the same answer as the question "Is it more likely that A is scum without B, or that B is scum without A?" If you can't figure out an answer to the first, try asking the second.

I know this is off of what I should be commenting on, but good strategy. I will use it in the future.

[rewq455]

Bogre’s my second, but I think he's a bad target if we're wrong. He might do a decent job at finding scum as the shooter, but he'd need to take his sights off of me and Xyl before I'd feel really comfortable risking that. It's not so much that I don't think he's really scummy, it's that being wrong about Bogre would be like killing two townies.

Stop right there. Thinking this way is opening yourself up to manipulation by the scum. Don't.

That is why we should be careful about who we shoot though. If we shoot someone who is obviously a poor scum hunter, they are then given the opportunity to accedentally shoot town.

[rewq455]

oh wait...I was confused...HackerHuck replaced rite?

wow that's really, really, really really, really, really obv-scum right there. Please kill him. Seriously. He's scum.

That was a quick change. You had little on both HH and rite. Why does the replacement of an inactive player change anything?

[rewq455]

Out of the main few suspicions listed so far, I only think Sarag, slicey, or rite/Hacker would do okay as gunbearers if they are town. Of those people I am currently most suspicious of Sarag, so he may end up being the shot for the day. I'd like more people to weigh in, though.

So all the scum have to do to avoid getting shot is be vocal about a bunch of totally wrong suspicions?

Seriously, you are going down a very bad path here. Stop thinking about who would be a good gunbearer. Only consider who you think is scum.

If the person is scum, it doesn't matter how good of a gunbearer they would be. You are then still the bearer.

[rewq455]

Are you now thinking that Bogre is scum? Weren't you of the opinion that Bogre is town?

I thought he was null, then I thought he was scum, now I'm thinking he's town because of your concern about being shot by him.

Sarag or Hacker would be great picks imho

So Bogre must be town b/c you think HH must be scum?
Yep..... a scum member would NEVER launch an offense against another scum member.

[rewq455]

Are you now thinking that Bogre is scum? Weren't you of the opinion that Bogre is town?

I thought he was null, then I thought he was scum, now I'm thinking he's town because of your concern about being shot by him.

Sarag or Hacker would be great picks imho

So Bogre must be town b/c you think HH must be scum?
Yep..... a scum member would NEVER launch an offense against another scum member.

Really poor logic dude.

[rewq455]

It's still bad play, dipping into a test sample of one pool for something as fickle as meta.

Not at all. I've seen people try to draw meta from 10 different games and because they're n00b @ mafia the meta they have derived is crap and useless anyway. Quality, not quantity. If you work out behaviour that people genuinely have difficulty changing, then it's going to be effective regardless of where it's drawn from (bear in mind I don't even remember who I apparently meta'ed at this point). Noobs are still gonna read 10 different games and say "omg, Zakeri, in 9/10 of your town games your average post length is 3 lines long, in your scum game your average post length was 5 lines long. You have one 6-line post in this game

Vote: Zakeri

"

Slicey: I don't think Xyl is scum. Merely wrong.

So you are doing this based off of post length? Also I noticed that you said that Zakeri was on your scum list, even before you posted anything against him. Also you have brought up posts against how he posts.... looking scummier each page. At this point, even scummier than Bogre.

[rewq455]

well, I am done then. Here is my list
1. ortolan
2. bogre

there is no one else I really could see as scum at this point. If I had to pick another though, it would be xylthixlm, just due to how aggressive he is being, but from what I have heard, that is the norm for him.

[Xylthixlm]

If I had to pick another though, it would be xylthixlm, just due to how aggressive he is being

So, you think townies should be non-aggressive?

[Xylthixlm]

Yos, did you actually ever give a top 3 scumlist? I can't find it.

[Xylthixlm]

Well.. regardless of what Yos decides, the top 4 consensus scummy people are Bogre, rewq455, ortolan, and Sarag (in that order).

If I take those four's votes out of the count, not only does the top 4 stay the same but it also removes

almost every single vote on any player not in that group

. The only exceptions are HowardRoark's votes on Slicey and Zakeri.

Curious fact: nobody put HowardRoark in their top 3.

[Yosarian2]

Well, I think I made clear who my suspects were, Xyl:

EBWOP: What do people think of shooting Sarag D1 instead if Drake should happen to come back and actually post something towny?

Sarag look suspicious, but at this moment, I'd rather see either Drake or Bogre dead.

My top 2 scumlist was been Drake/Bogre. My top 4 was been Drake, Bogre, Sarag, and Ortlan, although I'm less sure about Ort recently; I could see some of his posts as something that could come from town.

So far, Rew isn't giving me the bad vibe Drake was. He hasn't really said anything that hasn't already been said, though. My inclination right now would be to shoot Bogre today and observe rewq455 a little longer, so long as he intends to keep being active tommorow.

So, my top 3 suspects right now would be (Bogre, Sarag, rewq455). I really want to see Bogre get shot here; I just have trouble seeing his actions as likely to wn at all here.