Mini 1822: Welcome to Typhon - Night Four

[Infinity 324]

Mrmm ok

How would you estimate the probabilities atm

[frog]

The probabilities of what?

[Infinity 324]

Impo/smart being scum

[Impoetic]

Mrmm ok

How would you estimate the probabilities atm

I haven't read the posts but stop.

I don't think I'll get lynched but this is ridiculously reminiscent of what I expected the scum to do when they found out about this -- that is, to suddenly find an excuse to switch to me, making it not autowin. Unless they just gave up.

Your paranoia is the only reason they haven't given up, too. Well, maybe not, but it certainly makes it longer. I'm mechanically clear and both jaereed (conftown) and SS (probtown at this point) have acknowledged this. If I were mafia, I would not be outing that logic myself, because I woudln't believe in it enough to expect you not to doubt me.

[Impoetic]

To clarify, the "this" is frog's sudden doubt of me when he was acknowledging that I coudln't be scum until after it became "autowin if impo is clear" fhpov

[Impoetic]

I think he should shoot frog. I know this is modwifom, but I don't think the mod would give 2 vig shots in a row as gifts, and vig is the only normal (and probably the only reasonable) role that would let grapes win here. Plus he probably would've used it if he had it.

I agree and I considered this established when I left it

you're right; when I made the PR comment earlier, it hadn't occurred to me that the mod had already given out a vig shot as a PR this game.

[Impoetic]

Before you jump to conclusions, consider that Impoetic wrote this on the last page:

now time to coast to a win as scum

And also ask yourself the following question: does it look like she has been trying to gamesolve recently? I hardly think you can answer that in the affirmative

Recently I've been off my game, yes. In my defense, recently, it seemed like autowin, and I was honestly planning to sheep the clear's reads over mine because I felt bad for (what I thought was) me misreading you because, "Oh, frog is good, he could fake this play easily" and being too quick to fall for towntells.

As for that line, it was clearly a joke, with no bearing on the game whatsoever. If you want to debate it as if it's relevant, well, wouldn't scum be scared to say things like that? Of course, that wasn't my logic in saying it, because it was just for fun and I thought it was silly to say I was mafia.

FTR as scum at this point I think I'd simply be talking about how silly frog is being instead of actually stepping up to the challenge unnecessarily, since this game would be headed in my favor and debate would just leave room for a slip-up or people reconsidering it. I mean I guess my saying this makes it kinda null, but hopefully you get what I mean here.

Yes, I thought that that made Impoetic very likely town. It did not seem to be something advantageous to lie about, as I said earlier. In hindsight, if Zachstralkita was indeed the Night 1 attempted recruit then a scum!Impoetic might know more about how the cult worked should she have been targeted, and this would also have made it a much safer claim to make as she could have been sure that nobody would counter-claim. Looking back, I believe I arrived at these observations the wrong way around.

Furthermore, if Something_Smart is actually town, then I can understand the play from a scum perspective; it allows Impoetic to take on the role of an observer and implicitly encourages the rest of us towards a competition between me and Something_Smart. Before today, that would have been sufficient, but with the rather lucky experiment we are given today there is still scope to challenge it.

It sounds like you're panicking, not like you think we lucked up. That's just me trying to tone-read someone who's already confirmed scum in my eyes and probably can't really be tone-read, though. rip

And, as we have been over, Zachstralchikita clearly didn't know he was targeted, and therefore A) I wouldn't know I was targeted either and B) I wouldn't have any insider's information about cult. Zach and co. assumed Dunnstral was actually an investigative PR. If Zach had claimed culted, uncc'd, this would be a scum win. Ergo, his claim was the result of having to react in real-time to an unexpected scenario. And I would have absolutely no way of knowing that culted players reverted to town, since that's not listed on the wiki. There are just

so

many reasons I'm not scum at this point in the game; I think the more I try to list them, the less comprehensible my arguments get.

Also, Frog said this was a "nearly unloseable game," which wouldn't hold at all if I were scum; it's only nearly impossible to lose because scum is in frog/SS. Frog is thinking that way still, despite claiming otherwise.

Frog is mafia. He played well, but he's mafia.

[Impoetic]

OK I wish I could edit that just to fix saying "off my game" which implies I ever had a "game"

recently I've been

more out of it than usual

and I have also been coasting because I didn't feel that doing otherwise would be necessary, productive, or enjoyable because it's depressing how terrible I am at reads and I would be scared to do anything but convince myself of inspectorscout's read in Frog/SS

[Impoetic]

I have been wrong this entire game, which is somewhat understandable, but then I go and create what is apparently a false dichotomy and place a nearly unloseable game in jeopardy

First of all, he's implying he somehow "created" the cross, even though it was a natural conclusion and the rest of the town agreed I was at least probtown if not conftown.

Secondly, why would this be an unloseable game? Frog just admitted he would have been wrong even before he agreed to me being clear, and at most if you view me as an unclear it will be 50/50 of hammering correctly between me and whichever towny lives.

It's unloseable because I

am

clear and he knows it. It wouldn't be otherwise.

[Impoetic]

Now if Something_Smart flips scum I'll laugh pretty hard.

OK DONE SPAMMING SORRY

[JaeReed]

Yes, I thought that that made Impoetic very likely town. It did not seem to be something advantageous to lie about, as I said earlier. In hindsight, if Zachstralkita was indeed the Night 1 attempted recruit then a scum!Impoetic might know more about how the cult worked should she have been targeted, and this would also have made it a much safer claim to make as she could have been sure that nobody would counter-claim. Looking back, I believe I arrived at these observations the wrong way around.

Furthermore, if Something_Smart is actually town, then I can understand the play from a scum perspective; it allows Impoetic to take on the role of an observer and implicitly encourages the rest of us towards a competition between me and Something_Smart. Before today, that would have been sufficient, but with the rather lucky experiment we are given today there is still scope to challenge it.

Frog is last maf if there is one. Zach didn't know Dunn tried to recruit him. That much is clear from their interactions.

Plus trying to push the joke about being scum coasting as an actual thing when she's clearly trolling infin. He's trying to keep the venge off himself.

[JaeReed]

Mrmm ok

How would you estimate the probabilities atm

I haven't read the posts but stop.

I don't think I'll get lynched but this is ridiculously reminiscent of what I expected the scum to do when they found out about this -- that is, to suddenly find an excuse to switch to me, making it not autowin. Unless they just gave up.

Your paranoia is the only reason they haven't given up, too. Well, maybe not, but it certainly makes it longer. I'm mechanically clear and both jaereed (conftown) and SS (probtown at this point) have acknowledged this. If I were mafia, I would not be outing that logic myself, because I woudln't believe in it enough to expect you not to doubt me.

This. Specifically the last bit. What Impo claimed was a cult working differently to what is listed in the wiki.

As mafia she wouldn't have claimed what she did because it contradicts the wiki. Before anyone suggests she wouldn't have checked it, I'm going to shut that down now. She is the type of person who definitely would have checked to make sure her fake claim was believable as mafia. As town, she'd completely scatterbrain it and claim, then check the wiki.

Impo is town.

[JaeReed]

I think he should shoot frog. I know this is modwifom, but I don't think the mod would give 2 vig shots in a row as gifts, and vig is the only normal (and probably the only reasonable) role that would let grapes win here. Plus he probably would've used it if he had it.

I agree and I considered this established when I left it

you're right; when I made the PR comment earlier, it hadn't occurred to me that the mod had already given out a vig shot as a PR this game.

My concerns with this venge are:
If grapes is bp we lose if we venge him.
If grapes is LYNCHPROOF (even just 1shot) we lose if we don't venge him.

[JaeReed]

Before you jump to conclusions, consider that Impoetic wrote this on the last page:

now time to coast to a win as scum

And also ask yourself the following question: does it look like she has been trying to gamesolve recently? I hardly think you can answer that in the affirmative

Recently I've been off my game, yes. In my defense, recently, it seemed like autowin, and I was honestly planning to sheep the clear's reads over mine because I felt bad for (what I thought was) me misreading you because, "Oh, frog is good, he could fake this play easily" and being too quick to fall for towntells.

As for that line, it was clearly a joke, with no bearing on the game whatsoever. If you want to debate it as if it's relevant, well, wouldn't scum be scared to say things like that? Of course, that wasn't my logic in saying it, because it was just for fun and I thought it was silly to say I was mafia.

FTR as scum at this point I think I'd simply be talking about how silly frog is being instead of actually stepping up to the challenge unnecessarily, since this game would be headed in my favor and debate would just leave room for a slip-up or people reconsidering it. I mean I guess my saying this makes it kinda null, but hopefully you get what I mean here.

Yes, I thought that that made Impoetic very likely town. It did not seem to be something advantageous to lie about, as I said earlier. In hindsight, if Zachstralkita was indeed the Night 1 attempted recruit then a scum!Impoetic might know more about how the cult worked should she have been targeted, and this would also have made it a much safer claim to make as she could have been sure that nobody would counter-claim. Looking back, I believe I arrived at these observations the wrong way around.

Furthermore, if Something_Smart is actually town, then I can understand the play from a scum perspective; it allows Impoetic to take on the role of an observer and implicitly encourages the rest of us towards a competition between me and Something_Smart. Before today, that would have been sufficient, but with the rather lucky experiment we are given today there is still scope to challenge it.

It sounds like you're panicking, not like you think we lucked up. That's just me trying to tone-read someone who's already confirmed scum in my eyes and probably can't really be tone-read, though. rip

And, as we have been over, Zachstralchikita clearly didn't know he was targeted, and therefore A) I wouldn't know I was targeted either and B) I wouldn't have any insider's information about cult. Zach and co. assumed Dunnstral was actually an investigative PR. If Zach had claimed culted, uncc'd, this would be a scum win. Ergo, his claim was the result of having to react in real-time to an unexpected scenario. And I would have absolutely no way of knowing that culted players reverted to town, since that's not listed on the wiki. There are just

so

many reasons I'm not scum at this point in the game; I think the more I try to list them, the less comprehensible my arguments get.

Also, Frog said this was a "nearly unloseable game," which wouldn't hold at all if I were scum; it's only nearly impossible to lose because scum is in frog/SS. Frog is thinking that way still, despite claiming otherwise.

Frog is mafia. He played well, but he's mafia.

Y U steal my spotlight? how dare you defend yourself before I defend you!!!

[Chrimi]

Flavor and flip incoming.

VOTE COUNT

Something_Smart

(4) - Infinity 324, Something_Smart, Impoetic, frog

(LYNCH)

Players not voting: JaeReed, grapes

With 6 votes in play it takes 4 to lynch.

Day Four ends now!

[Chrimi]

Life sucks.

Something_Smart was lynched. He was a

Product Research Development Employee

.

Frog went down with Something_Smart. He was a

Government Spy

.

Classes have started and I had to run a big event. Kept swearing I'd update this and then passing out the second I got home.
Oh, and I was in the hospital for a couple days. So there's that too.

Giving you guys

48 hours

to submit night actions (as well as for me to tidy up the damn flavor). And my sincerest apologies for being a shit mod.

[T-Bone]

Hey guys. This game has been in limbo since Sept 21st essentially. Living players, if you wish for the game to end, please PM me stating so. If a majority does, the game will end as is.

[T-Bone]

We'll go ahead and end this game. The playerlist is released.