Mini 1822: Welcome to Typhon - Night Four


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Post Post #2925 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:44 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2924, Infinity 324 wrote:But why is it that you disagree with every point I make indicating frog is town and claim to think he's obviously scum and there's all this evidence no one notices for the whole game?

That
is confirmation bias.
I think we're both biased.

I'm refusing to accept any evidence that frog is town, because I know that he isn't. It's not wrong to call that bias, although I am confirming what I already
know
rather than what I already believe.

You are also biased; you said yourself that frog was widely townread before Zach and grapes were discovered to be scum. So when you reread him after those alignments were known, you wanted to support the conclusion that he's town. So really, we're both biased in opposite directions. Except my bias is more valid than yours.

By the way, I do believe that there is all this evidence that no one noticed for the whole game, and the simple reason for this is that that evidence is based on Zach and grapes being scum, a fact which only recently came to light.
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Post Post #2926 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:57 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 2922, frog wrote:Something else that pings me about Something_Smart's entrance is that he seems focused towards trying to make town tells. By repeatedly and ostentatiously wavering about whether there are two or three scum, he is trying to give the impression that he doesn't know very much, but he somehow already understands that endgame will be between him and I, which takes some measure of acquaintance with the game.
Well, yeah, I don't know what isn't clearly stated anywhere, but it's pretty much a given that the last scum is between frog and me.
I also find this:
In post 2898, Something_Smart wrote:(oh idk I guess I got grapes confused with Impo
and I promise this is not me faking a townslip
)
To be very awkward, considering that grapes' profile does not specify his gender and his current avatar displays a woman.
I always try to refer to people by the correct gender, and I can provide evidence for that if necessary. I realized after I had done it that messing up your buddy's username or gender is a common way of distancing, and I wanted to point out that I wasn't trying to do do that. (Because faked towntells as scum only carry weight if you let someone else point them out.)
This is to say little of S_S' points, most of which are not properly contextualised. Like, I appreciate that there is a lot to get through, but his point regarding, say, my conversations with inspectorscout miss what was going on in the thread at the time. You could just as easily consider them an attempt on both our parts to figure each other out.
Understandable. (I certainly am not well acquainted with the context; I'll give you that.) However, the point still stands-- doing the thing he did is something that scum do when trying to fake scumhunting.
His analysis of my Day 2 reads have to take into consideration that both of my top scumreads at that time, inspectorscout and Infinity, had claimed and been confirmed, respectively, and as such it was more than time enough for me to reconsider my reads.
The fact that he was forced to reconsider his reads does not give him an excuse to put scum as strong town with very weak reasoning; nor does it explain why he failed to reconsider his Zach read.
His comment about 'three scum' being telling is a misrep, since all I said regarding a third scum on Day 3 was this:
In post 2843, frog wrote:
If
there is a third scum, it is Seraphim.
But even if I had assumed there were three scum, this would hardly be indicative of alignment since most Mini Theme games have three scum in them anyway, and not only that, but Seraphim assumed three scum as well. I could go on, since most of the quotes you provide are either decontextualised or interpreted highly selectively.
Okay, I concede this point; for some reason I thought he said something more definitive than that. I guess this is the problem with taking notes and then making arguments off of those notes :oops:
There is necessarily greater significance in the interactions and the game events, the most significant of which, are, to my mind:

Day 1
- Seraphim's comments about and interactions with Zachstralkita look very much like coaching
- Grapes' read on Seraphim evolves in a rather strange way, and for all his equivocation (which, by the way, he does not possess towards any of his other reads, at least not to the same extent) he never reaches out a hand or makes any pushes
I would have no valid way to respond to the second point, but all accusations of coaching should be nullified because the scum have daytalk.
Day 2
- Grapes Day 1 behaviour continues, culminating in a very non-commital motion to lend a vote if it looks like the lynch would go through
- The fact that a Seraphim lynch did not materialise, despite intense pressure from several now-confirmed town players
Again, I can't argue against most of this. But I can say that some players who appear easy to lynch become harder to lynch when under pressure, and those players are often town.
Day 3
- The fact that Zach chose to shoot LucianRoy
There's a large amount of WIFOM involved here, especially given the scum's daytalk.
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Post Post #2927 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:08 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

In post 2925, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 2924, Infinity 324 wrote:But why is it that you disagree with every point I make indicating frog is town and claim to think he's obviously scum and there's all this evidence no one notices for the whole game?

That
is confirmation bias.
I think we're both biased.

I'm refusing to accept any evidence that frog is town, because I know that he isn't. It's not wrong to call that bias, although I am confirming what I already
know
rather than what I already believe.

You are also biased; you said yourself that frog was widely townread before Zach and grapes were discovered to be scum. So when you reread him after those alignments were known, you wanted to support the conclusion that he's town. So really, we're both biased in opposite directions. Except my bias is more valid than yours.

By the way, I do believe that there is all this evidence that no one noticed for the whole game, and the simple reason for this is that that evidence is based on Zach and grapes being scum, a fact which only recently came to light.
I don't think I went into my research particularly biased; I townread both frog and seraphim since d2 really.

What skeeves me out about your bias is that it's much stronger than I would expect from town!you.
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Post Post #2928 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:11 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

I still need to read those walls. Ugh
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Post Post #2929 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:08 am

Post by Something_Smart »

Lol sorry

and to be honest, I've never been in a true 1v1 before. so I guess you're right that I don't have to refute EVERY POINT in favor of the other person being town, I just need a preponderance of evidence. But I guess I'm obsessive about refuting every argument presented against me, which you didn't see in Poker because there really wasn't much of a real case on me (though I can back this up with links to other games if you'd like).
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Post Post #2930 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:10 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Sure, a link would be nice
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Post Post #2931 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 10:47 am

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Post Post #2932 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:10 pm

Post by Chrimi »

Took a look at my notes.

Today's experiment is very simple:

Whoever is lynched gets a vengekill.
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Post Post #2933 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 7:36 pm

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:]
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Post Post #2934 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:02 pm

Post by Infinity 324 »

Hmmmm

We lynch town --> shoot grapes

We lynch scum --> we lynch grapes tomorrow

I think we lynch between smart and frog today. Should be an auto win.
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Post Post #2935 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:05 pm

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Yeah we're 4:2 now. So whether we lynch town or scum it goes to 2:1 with confirmed scum tomorrow.

Sorry grapes.

Have to make sure it's not impo though because if it is and she wins I'll flip a shit.
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Post Post #2936 (ISO) » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:49 pm

Post by Infinity 324 »

VOTE: smart

I'm glad we didn't actually have to figure out this game. My final guess is smart for scum.
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Post Post #2937 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:10 am

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oh my god that makes things so much simpler :)
VOTE: Something_Smart

also, as a side note, I finally know what it's like to be on the receiving end of bad meta, which seems only fair because I've dished it out multiple times. I'm just annoyed that you didn't even read my case before you called me scum for realizing I had to make it :? it's a good thing that didn't cost us the game though.
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Post Post #2938 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:15 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Ehh

It had a lot to do with your attitude at the beginning, I just wanted to see if the same sort of thing continued. And meta didn't really inform all of it.
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Post Post #2939 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:16 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

That'd be funny if grapes is trolling and the last scum though.
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Post Post #2940 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:17 am

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what was my attitude? "I have to convince people to lynch frog over me"?
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Post Post #2941 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:19 am

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"Frog is obvious scum and all of your reasons to townread him are wrong"
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Post Post #2942 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:22 am

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Tbh I expected more of "yes this looks good for frog, but I know he has to be scum, so :/"
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Post Post #2943 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:26 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

Also if you're trolling here can you stop pls <3
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Post Post #2944 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:34 am

Post by Something_Smart »

I would say I never troll, but you saw me in Mislead. I guess a more accurate thing to say is, I wouldn't be leading you on about how annoyed I was that you were wrong if you were actually right, because that's being mean with no benefit to me. Similarly, when I found out that my playing out Mislead was actually going to extend the game by a significant amount of time without giving me any chance of winning, I stopped.

And anyway, I honestly didn't see most of the towny things you were talking about :o I admit it was probably wrong to immediately jump in and discredit every single point in his favor, but I read his ISO with the knowledge that Zach and grapes were scum and it DID look really scummy.
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Post Post #2945 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:39 am

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Fair enough. In that case, we needed you earlier on in the game when everyone townread frog :)
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Post Post #2946 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:08 am

Post by Impoetic »

wait I DIDN'T have 0 correct reads all game???? that's a pretty shocking newsflash

VOTE: Something_Smart

It's too bad for Frog and Grapes though; they were probably going to win, I think, had this experiment not been to town's advantage at this point in time.

By the way, I suggest shooting Grapes, not Frog, since grapes has some sort of PR. It's probably irrelevant, but better to play optimally.
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Post Post #2947 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:10 am

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What if grapes is BP :/

Is there anything grapes could have to let him win lylo?
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Post Post #2948 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:13 am

Post by Infinity 324 »

I mean he could have a vig but...again?

Ugh mod WIFOM
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Post Post #2949 (ISO) » Tue Sep 20, 2016 5:13 am

Post by Impoetic »

In post 2940, Something_Smart wrote:what was my attitude? "I have to convince people to lynch frog over me"?
I think he was primarily referring to the line about how you couldn't believe we hadn't lynched frog before which infinity thought was scum BSing

now time to coast to a win as scum :good:

predit: it's almost certainly gonna be irrelevant. I just don't see any reason not to so I thought I'd point it out
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