Mini 1906 - It's An Owners Market Blitz (Game Over)

[Albert B. Rampage]

again, not how this game works

day will continue until its scheduled to end

Quote that part I missed it

[Regfan]

4. Majority votes will not cause a lynch until D5 onward, prior to that the player with the most votes when deadline hits is lynched.

Lynch Vote Count 3.1

Tywin Lannister (5):

Albert B. Rampage, Desperado, Infinity 324, Momo, Prism

Albert B. Rampage (1):

Tywin Lannister

Not Voting (3):

RedCoyote, Socrates, Elena Fisher

Mid Day Update is in (expired on 2017-05-14 21:00:00) and Day Ends in (expired on 2017-05-16 21:00:00)

[Tywin Lannister]

Not gonna bother telling you all I'm an obvious mislynch. It doesn't matter. But you guys clearly don't know how to read me. If game is lost for town, it wont be my fault, and I'll let you know how wrong you were post game. This stuff is so obvious it's ridiculous.

[Tywin Lannister]

Like after the game, i will legit need to be told by town how they're thought process here is so off in every possible way when scum are
so obvious, and I'm so obviously town. It's not even a debatable thing.

Whose my counter wagon? Oh right, I don't have one. Cuz scum are all on me. Common sense people. This is a learn to play issue.

[Albert B. Rampage]

You're so funny Tywin!

[Socrates]

Hey guys, what's up? Oh you're lynching Tywin based off of statistical probability? Cool, cool. What should we do for the next 48 hours? Talk about the weather?

More seriously, scum!Tywin would have to feel pretty desperate about his survivability to deliberately create such a menu, and I'm not sure he had much reason to feel that way, but maybe I only think that way because I figured people were just going to dogpile on me again. If I was scum in his position, I would have only prioritized daykiller and then picked the three most powerful pro-town roles to make it look good. My intuition is that regardless of Tywin's alignment, this is a statistical outlier here. What I would want to do, if I had infinite time and wasn't 5+ years out from taking Stats class, is calculate the probability of this happening under the scenario I just described, and then compare THAT value to the previously mentioned 2% figure, and then the ratio between the two would be the Actual probability of Tywin being scum.

It would probably still heavily favor a scum!Tywin, but not to the extent that people are claiming.

Show of hands here, who was actually scum-reading Tywin before this happened?

[Socrates]

And did you guys calculate the probability of this exact grouping, or the probability of Tywin not getting any of the role ps he bet on. This is a crucial distinction!

[Desperado]

tywin being scum has very little to do with his auction choices. they just remove any shadow of a doubt.

[Socrates]

Also I need to double check if the Market Owner MUST pick 4 roles, or if they can pick fewer.

[Socrates]

It was weird how he talking talking about scum being saved by a counter wagon, yet was saying Gamma was obvtown, despite being saved by a last minute counter wagon. A wagon that I caused. And I was his top scumread.

[Prism]

I've triple and quadruple checked it. The chance is not 2.5% but 0.3%.

This is of

any

grouping not including the four, not this specific grouping.

I already explained the math. I'm pretty intoxicated but I'm confident in my sober calculations.

[Infinity 324]

I think the plan was to choose 2 roles that would be good for town so that the pool didn't look too suspicious, but they got unlucky and none of them showed up.

Or at least, him choosing 2 towny and 2 scummy roles to have a balance would be one possibility. I wouldn't assume he chose 3 towny roles.

The chance tywin is scum is a lot less than 99.7% because of what you mentioned and for other reasons but he still has a well over 50% of being scum so it doesn't matter.

[Socrates]

Oh, and for the record, Momo should basically be treated as a mod-confirmed innocent child, because not only did he flip onto mafia from an easily justifiable mislynch completely out of nowhere, he did it in the ten minute interval between bids closing and the day ending, a touch so brilliant I refuse to believe it was intentional.

[Socrates]

Albert claiming ownership of hitman would,be super dangerous for him to do as scum unless the scumteam got both doctor roles as well, (Gamma did claim to have the JK, I suppose), because now he can't successfully use it to strong arm a protected target without outing himself as scum.

[Socrates]

Outside of Lylo, I suppose.

[Prism]

So, uh, Socrates, you want to acknowledge that Tywin is all but confirmed scum or what? Feel free to check over my math yourself.

[Desperado]

Not Voting (3): RedCoyote, Socrates, Elena Fisher

last scum lies here

probably redcoyote...

[Socrates]

What more is there to say? I already said that even if I did the calculations I wanted to do, I would expect it to still heavily favor scum!tywin.

I haven't thrown down a vote because why bother?

[Albert B. Rampage]

It was weird how he talking talking about scum being saved by a counter wagon, yet was saying Gamma was obvtown, despite being saved by a last minute counter wagon. A wagon that I caused. And I was his top scumread.

Don't try to make too much sense of Tywin. He is a special case.

[Albert B. Rampage]

What more is there to say? I already said that even if I did the calculations I wanted to do, I would expect it to still heavily favor scum!tywin.

I haven't thrown down a vote because why bother?

Because it's fun. United town and what not.

[Socrates]

Okay, yeah.

All for one and one for all and all that business!

VOTE: Tywin

[Infinity 324]

It was weird how he talking talking about scum being saved by a counter wagon, yet was saying Gamma was obvtown, despite being saved by a last minute counter wagon. A wagon that I caused. And I was his top scumread.

Yeah, this is why you never write people off as town. You miss stuff like this.

Oh well

[RedCoyote]

Elena is effectively confirmed town due to a track I have on her, fyi (barring some incredible scum chicanery/4D chess). Just keep this in mind for the future.

VOTE: Tywin Lannister

[RedCoyote]

Not Voting (3): RedCoyote, Socrates, Elena Fisher

last scum lies here

probably redcoyote...

lurking = scum is so passe

[RedCoyote]

maybe desp is scum because he has a gun in his avatar ever think of that