In post 1496, Momrangal wrote:I mean, I highly doubt koki decides to bus when other viable lynch options exists. It would be against his wincon.
Also, why are you all against giving me my shots I promise to do the protown thing with them
Can you go into this more please?
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 8:32 am
by Ankamius
I am really struggling to see a case where Kokichi-scum doesn't make sense with the game since he fits the scum agenda I've been reading throughout the day like a glove.
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 8:38 am
by Ankamius
I'm going to calculate some things. I'm already noticing something very interesting from the VCs and I want to explore it further.
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:19 am
by Ankamius
Okay, preliminary examinations:
Nancy Drew 39 and Havingfitz are now 100% locktown. In no circumstances am I ever going to lynch these two.
Katyusha is very close to locktown, but not quite there. Still unlikely I'll ever support lynching this.
Wisdom is a lower than Katyusha, but he's unlikely to be scum. Some possibility I'll get paranoid of this slot, but will probably be late in the game if ever.
The lynch pool therefore is in {Eddie Cane, Kokichi Oma, pirate mollie, Srceenplay, Sugar Cain, the worst, Tywin Lannister}
I'm leaving my own slot as not green just so it's easier to follow along with this, but this means Eevee 100% had scum on it unless you believe Tywin Lannister + pirate mollie + myself is scum.
This is also very telling. Unless the scumteam is Eddie Cane + Sugar Cain + Srceenplay (or interplaying myself as replacement of one somewhere),
scum was 100% on the Papa Zito wagon.
I independently believe that scum 100% was wanting a Zito lynch, but it looks even worse with this setup in mind.
Plus the fact that Kokichi Oma + Tywin Lannister + brassherald are the opening votes on Zito,
combined with the fact that they're the ones that stay on it the longest
, looks really bad for that list.
I'm also not convinced the worst is town by the Zito wagon anymore. Now that it's pretty clear both from intuition and hard evidence that the Zito wagon stinks, it doesn't look as good that the worst would hop on and then suddenly hop off a page later. The more slots on the Zito wagon flip scum, the more likely the worst is also scum.
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:22 am
by Ankamius
In post 1504, Ankamius wrote:Plus the fact that Kokichi Oma + Tywin Lannister + brassherald are the opening votes on Zito,
combined with the fact that they're the ones that stay on it the longest
, looks really bad for that list.
Oops, this is a lie.
Those three weren't the ones that stayed on the wagon the longest, they're the ones that tried to rekindle the Zito wagon after that period of votes being spread out over 2/3 the playerlist.
There is 100% scum in this window, at least one. I suspect two, since that list suspiciously coincides with my current scumlist.
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:23 am
by Wisdom
dont do vca without flips ank
for all you know youre wrong about zito and youre making conclusions based on wrong assumptions
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:28 am
by Ankamius
I'm using VCA alongside all my other thoughts, Wisdom. It's not blind.
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:32 am
by Ankamius
Kokichi + the worst + (Tywin/mollie)
I'm calling it right now.
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:33 am
by Ankamius
Ankamius/havingfitz/Nancy Drew 39
Katyusha
Wisdom
Srceenplay
Sugar Cain
Tywin Lannister
pirate mollie
the worst
Kokichi Oma
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:37 am
by Wisdom
what is src doing so high
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:38 am
by the worst
Katy are you sure this is town? That VCA is the second worst thing itt so far (the worst being the outcomes anka came to from it)
im pretty sure ank is town despite disagreeing with how shes trying to form reads
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:41 am
by the worst
I lol'd
pedit: she is a very weak townread for me but I think my urge to knock her into scumreads is policy lust
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:42 am
by Wisdom
yep she can have that effect if youre not used to her
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:43 am
by Katyusha
In post 1511, the worst wrote:Katy are you sure this is town? That VCA is the second worst thing itt so far (the worst being the outcomes anka came to from it)
This is the VC in question. At the time, Brass wagon had died down a little bit and Tylan was a viable CW. Further more, not only did kokichi vote at a time where putting pressure back on his buddy would be precarious, he was super nonchalant about it.
I'm not saying koki can't be scum but if he is, it isn't going to be with Mollie
This is the VC in question. At the time, Brass wagon had died down a little bit and Tylan was a viable CW. Further more, not only did kokichi vote at a time where putting pressure back on his buddy would be precarious, he was super nonchalant about it.
I'm not saying koki can't be scum but if he is, it isn't going to be with Mollie
Wrong.
Pirate mollie actually has a lot more support than Tywin does despite what the vote counts say. It would've been an undertaking at the least to be able to push it through.
In post 1511, the worst wrote:Katy are you sure this is town? That VCA is the second worst thing itt so far (the worst being the outcomes anka came to from it)
Alright good, glad to see I'm on the right track.
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:49 am
by Sugar Cain
Possibly but doubt was still kind of in place Also, I don't think you may have been to hard to try and push
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:50 am
by Ankamius
None of those conclusions should be any surprise whatsoever just by how I've been going about getting reads this game.
The only thing that changed is how I'm reading the worst's play throughout the game. The rest is actually about the same as I've been reading the game for a long while now.
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:50 am
by Wisdom
Mara, Kokichi has been constantly saying Tywin is town
he couldnt really push that wagon there
Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 9:52 am
by Sugar Cain
I just... IDK, I kinda feel like there were a couple other options too
