Mini 2011: Partition Mafia (Game Over)

zMuffinMan
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Post Post #2400  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 12:40 am

In post 2386, BuJaber wrote:I still think the game is fine if all are vanilla roles.

This is also a provably incorrect statement.
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Post Post #2401  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 12:42 am

Implosion can explain the balance aspect better and why I was never afraid of lylo.

He said the stuff I was thinking in the dead thread. I just suck at explaining.

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Post Post #2402  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 12:49 am

How so muffin?

The PRs are literally what nessed up town's ability to correctly analyze behavior.

Everyone had wildly different ideas on how to play each PR in a pro-town way.

Without PRs the game would be 50% shorter in terms of page count and people would be talking about actual reads and partition WIFOM only.

The PR discussion really threw a wrench into any chance of town getting good clarity.

You say I'm wrong but wasting a PR as strong as wisdom's would ve a bad idea. The fact that it existed means mod put it there to balance the game. Not using it at all means we handicap ourselves. I wanted to lynch g2 after wisdom swaps out a wildly townread player from g2 (whoever the majority agrees to) it gives more info because it has a chance to guilty the person we swapped out and also increases the odds of lynching scum because it relies on the wisdom of crowds.

Lynching the 5 man group that mafia have intentionally chosen to put together seems incredibly bad guilty or no guilty.

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Post Post #2403  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 1:07 am

It's easy to look at how this game played out and say the PRs weren't good for the game, but that seems like too simplistic a way to view the setup as a whole. I'm not going to argue with you about this particular incarnation.

The fact of the matter is that if this setup were mountainous, town EV would be atrocious.

Fun fact: we did not actually plan Kokichi's guilty (that was something he did on his own, lol) so the point about lynching the group scum set up is a bit flawed. Also just disagree with that statement in general - it's better than not having a scum flip, at the very least.
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Post Post #2404  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 1:11 am

In hindsight should have scumread fitz for his scumread on wisdom.

We'll see muffin. I really hope this setup gets played more. Especially mountainous (that means vanilla only? New term for me..why 'mountains'?) So we can have actual stats to analyze. Also because it'a the most fun non-standard setup I've ever played.

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Post Post #2405  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 1:19 am

Implosion - why not have fewer PRs and make them town only?

I really struggled with finding a reason why scum would be given a role that can manipulate groups. Isn't the partitioning enough power for scum? Givem them the power to change them during the day seemed OP to me that's wjlhy my first instinct D1 was to townread all switching/moving other people claims. Only when the number of claims became suspicioisly high did I start thinking they have to include scum. Also because nobody agreed with this point anyway so I assumed I'm wrong. But I've been waiting for the game to end to ask this.

I feel like scum shouldn't be given a role that can move people.
I can understand some sort of protection and the self-moving (note not swapping) but not things that can in effect be a sort of mini partition during the day.

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Post Post #2406  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 1:22 am

In post 1, implosion wrote:is incorrect; the town's win odds if it reaches 5:1 and they still have a nightkill are 5/9. To win, scum has to dodge the lynch at 2:2:2 groups (2/3 chance), then dodge the lynch again at 1:1:1 lylo (2/3 chance), for total scum EV of (2/3) * (2/3) = 4/9.

Yep, sorry, you're right (I messed up the numbers in my head).

Still, in this even split scenario, this was assuming a D2 scum lynch (2/3). In the 1/3 chance it was a D2 all-town lynch, the odds for scum were 7/9 (assuming all even splits). So 2/3*4/9 + 1/3*7/9 = 5/9 overall, and that's just assuming the most vanilla splits possible. (Unless I'm doing the maths wrong again? Feel free to correct me if so.)
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Post Post #2407  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 1:54 am

OK, yeah, I actually just realised I'm going horribly wrong in my calculations, I think. If we assume random lynching at 2:1:1, scum's overall chance of winning with vanilla splits is actually 39/81 overall (which is actually worse for scum, unless my maths is wrong - optimal scum strategy with random lynches is to never be in the group of 2 at 2:1:1). If it's non-random lynching (e.g. town always lynches one of the 1s at 2:1:1, the equivalent of no-lynching at mylo), then it's 5/9 overall still (with optimal strategy being to stay in the group of 2).

So it's not as bad for town as I first assumed.

That said, without crunching numbers, I think non-vanilla splits will probably favour scum (e.g. 7/3/3 D1 with all 3 in one of the groups of 3 gives scum a 1/3 chance to win D1, a 1/3 chance to lose D1 and a 1/3 chance to have a big advantage going into D2).

I should probably actually sit down and work this out properly at some point instead of doing half-baked maths while I'm bored at work.
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Post Post #2408  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 1:59 am

The theory behind the setup's balance is this: the setup at 3:9 with scum having no nightkill is very probably exactly 50% EV. A proof has still eluded me, but alas. Adding one townie and giving scum one nightkill probably doesn't change that EV very much; initially I thought that it might not change it at all, but looking at your math, it's accurate; it does swing the EV, probably ever-so-slightly, in the direction of scum. Probably somewhere around 55-60%. Adding the power roles is a boon for the town, on average, overall, I think; partially this is because of DV's role however, because his role was quite likely to be seen as town and was one of the most effective at actually screwing with scum want to do in this setup, which is sometimes to pair themselves with town. What happened as a result of this in practice was that town used group-switching roles to move around someone that they weren't sure of, but with DV's role, you could have, for instance, taken Wisdom out of group one and then just lynched nsg, or taken out whoever was towniest from group 3 and lynched the other 3.

Of course, there's always the potential for scum to do something like 1-1-11, or 7-3-3, or some other manner of ludicrous split; the power roles were partially put into place to give town some counterplay to that. The choice to give muffin's power as the one for scum was actually almost entirely arbitrary; I came up with flavorful names for all of the roles and gave scum the one that sounded the most scummy. I think all of them are useful for both sides. Cakez's is probably the weakest just because obviously it's by far the least flexible since it's the only one that has no choice in who it's moving.

This is me from the setup design topic back when I first conceived of it (actually July last year):
Essentially, some of the ideas behind it:

-Nightless is balanced EV-wise when 1/4 of the player list is scum. Add in a townie and give scum a 1-shot non-game-ending nightkill, and that should remain close to true. From an EV standpoint I am actually extremely curious if the vanilla version of this would have a 0.5 EV at 3:9.

-Scum have many options: 1-1-11, which turns into wifom over "did scum put themselves in one of the 1s?" and will probably result in town lynching one of the 1s. One tactic could be to keep putting the groups as 1-1-(LARGE), forcing town to figure out the right time to "strike" and hit the big group. They could go for an even-ish distribution of 4-4-5 with one scum in each group; this leads to 2:6 or 2:7. They could go for one small, one medium, and one bigger group, and try to wifom from that. They could go for something like 3-3-7, either with all 3 scum in one of the 3s or with 2 in one and 1 in the other, so that town lynching the 7 would win them the game then and there, or they could all hide in the group of 7 together since town is pretty unlikely to lynch there. Etc etc.

-The hope is that the PRs give town just enough power so that almost all of it still resides with scum for choosing how to distribute players, but that town doesn't feel completely powerless. They could conceivably be extremely powerful. I'd likely give one to scum and the rest to town, so as to sort of imply "there's probably some of these in the town too!"

-It's definitely swingy, by design. Or rather, as you said, the mafia can make it such if they want. The game could easily end in a win for either faction on d1, although it'd be harder for the mafia to win on d1 than the town as they would have to convince the town to lynch a group of at least 7 people.

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Post Post #2409  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:01 am

I'm pretty sure your 5/9 calculation is accurate.

2:1:1 groups will still be exactly 50% EV. Town's optimal strategy isn't to lynch randomly, nor is it to always lynch one of the 1's; they can in fact choose any pair of people that they like as the two people to lynch, and then lynch both of those people. If both of those people are in the group of 2, they simply lynch it; if not, they lynch one of them that isn't in the group of 2, then lynch the other at 1:1:1.

At least that's one way to think of it.

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Post Post #2410  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:02 am

Serious bonus points to anyone who can prove (or disprove) that 3:9 (or generally n:3n) of this setup, vanilla, has a 50% EV.

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Post Post #2411  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:17 am

I really wanted to replace into realmans's slot but by the time the prod timer expired, they prod-dodged, lol. BuJaber played particularly well from the town side being so, so close. Just replace Eddie with Fitz and you had it. I was suspecting pretty much the same team with Fitz as an outside shot. I don't really understand Eddie switching Kokichi to a larger group. Just straight up lynching group 2 would have been the smartest plan and the obvious choice for a lynch. Even if zMuffinMan wasn't scum, that would have put town in 5P lylo which is the worst case scenario (and he was scum). It seemed rather self-preservationist at that point. Also, in hindsight, the role Kokichi fake-claimed would have been broken (it's basically a variation of a sensor which is an incredibly OP role).

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Post Post #2412  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:20 am

I had fun playing with everyone here and I actually really enjoyed the setup idea! Would play again.

I was really bummed not getting to use my role, but I thought it would be far more useful later in the game than earlier and I was hoping I wouldn't get killed. Ah well.

I think that there were lots of unfortunate circumstances here and no one should feel bad about how the game went!

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Post Post #2413  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:20 am

But also well done to the scumteam. They did awesomely

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Post Post #2414  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:28 am

In post 2412, DeasVail wrote:I had fun playing with everyone here and I actually really enjoyed the setup idea! Would play again.

I was really bummed not getting to use my role, but I thought it would be far more useful later in the game than earlier and I was hoping I wouldn't get killed. Ah well.

I think that there were lots of unfortunate circumstances here and no one should feel bad about how the game went!


As mentioned by implosion yes had you survived your role would have been much more useful day 2 or day 3 than day 1.

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Post Post #2415  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:30 am

I have many many thoughts about this game in general but I am very happy with it as, at the very least, a proof of concept; I think ideas like this have a lot of potential to be generalizable as well. The idea of a pseudo-nightless game in which scum in some way control what sets of people the town is allowed to lynch all at once. Another example idea I had was imagine a 13-player setup where each night the scum arrange all living players into a circle, and the town has to lynch 3 consecutive players in the circle. Or where the scum puts player names into a grid, and the town has to pick either a row or a column. Etc, etc. I think this is probably more interesting than those ideas because scum are less likely to do things completely arbitrarily and are more likely to actually put interesting thought into how they're grouping people.

The issue with the d2 swap was that it put all of the groups in even numbers, analogous to putting a game in evens; a group of 1 is a great lynch for town in that situation because it at least will yield information, while a group of 3 is also very sensible because it only needs to contain 1 scum to be safe. Although it could also be said that the scum played around this very well - it was an effective tactic to rely on the swap to muddle groups that they made that were "bad" for scum.

Kokichi's role would never exist in this setup. It's far, far too strong if it gets a negative on a group of ~4 people; having 3 confirmed townies in a game that is effectively nightless, even if scum is able to kill one of them and group the others together with scum, is brutal. Interestingly if the town can find 2 confirmed townies and whittle the scum's numbers down to 1, they can always win by just lynching the group that contains neither of the confirmed townies. This gets more complicated if scum have multiple people alive, though. Though it would be similar with 3 confirmed townies vs 2 scum if there were 4 groups in the game instead of 3, for instance. 2 groups could also be very interesting; I enjoy that thought because it's basically a fair division problem with scum as the divider and town as the chooser.

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Post Post #2416  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:41 am

Yeah... I think I realised shortly after D1 started that sensor was too absurdly strong a role to have in the game. I think I mentioned it in the scum thread too. Then Kokichi claimed it and I was just like... "OK then!"
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Post Post #2417  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:46 am

I was really curious to see why this group was eliminated as it turns out this was the reasoning.

In post 2049, Wisdom wrote:
muffin/Kokichi/fitz
muffin/Kokichi/Realmen
Eddie/Bu/muffin


Slightly more probable than muffin/Kokichi/Eddie but still, it's unlikely muffin chooses to group himself with Kokichi and Eddie. It's a group that gets lynched most of the time and losing two scum is not a good idea.

It would be good reasoning if scum knew N1 that Kokichi would basically be considered confirmed scum on D2. But you doing a 180 on Kokichi and holding on to your BuJaber townread wasn't something scum could have predicted N1. I didn't know which way you'd go when I was spectating. If they thought D2 would play out as Wisdom vs BuJaber, then Kokichi wasn't necessarily persona non grata at that point.

Just pointing this out because a lot of the assumptions made on D2 seemed to assume that scum had knowledge of how town's reads would change D2 when there was no indication towards the end of D1 how those reads would end up.

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Post Post #2418  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 2:53 am

Oh, actually, I think pretty much all of the assumptions about the reasoning behind the splits was wrong. What Wisdom wasn't factoring into it was my prediction about how Eddie would use his role (thus making the original split not matter as much so long as Eddie used his role within the scope of predictable behaviour).

Actually, my prediction was totally opposite to what I expected to happen, but somewhat serendipitously it ended up with the same results. I wasn't aware Eddie was actually scum-reading Kokichi that hard - everything he said about Kokichi D1 had me fooled!
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Post Post #2419  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 3:04 am

So, you and Kokichi put yourself in Eddie's group because you predicted that he would want to preserve himself somehow?

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Post Post #2420  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 3:12 am

No, I predicted Eddie would get paranoid of me and swap Kokichi out. I didn't expect the other way around. I also predicted he might do some other moves that potentially benefited us (but he didn't). His Kokichi read D1 really did have me fooled.
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Post Post #2421  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 3:15 am

There were multiple ideas built into the groups D2. None of them ended up panning out the way I expected them to, but they more or less led to the same results (e.g. Wisdom+NSG was a group designed to make people question why it was a group... But I thought people would be suspicious of Wisdom over NSG...)
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Post Post #2422  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 3:17 am

Eddie+me+Kokichi was also a group designed to pretty much bait Wisdom's suspicion. Which ended up happening, but... with results that weren't fully planned out.
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Post Post #2423  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 3:22 am

Basically eddie expected me to lynch a 4 man group that included me but was not willing to lynch a 3 man group that included him. Both of us scumread koki so koki being in our groups doesn't change that fact. I needed to have another scum in my group to justify the lynch. He didn't koki should have been enough for him. Or he puts him in g1 and doesn't have to lynch himself to lynch the guilty.

But thanks for training me to maintain my cool while basically losing my shit in real life. That's always good for future games.

I'm sorry if any of you felt I crossed a line. That is never my intention. I don't judge people by what is said during a game and I expect people not to judge me either.

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Post Post #2424  (ISO)  » Fri May 25, 2018 3:23 am

Actually, up until the last minute we were going with a different split (G1: Wisdom-NSG-Fitz, G2: Eddie-Kokichi-REAL MAN, G3: Buj-Me). Then HF came in and changed it to the original one I suggested...

Kokichi's reaction:
In post 357, Kokichi Oma wrote:Oh my God. No not that one
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