Mini Theme 2022: Trapped! [Gameover]

[Myloninja13]

Sorry, I can get to this tomorrow

[Kokichi Oma]

Let me know if any questions

[mutantdevle]

What happens in a three way tie between two fortunates and one scum? Does the scum get lynched without having to draw straws?

Correct. The scum will be lynched without drawing straws.

Is self voting allowed?

Nope.

[Feysal]

Well, so much about that idea then. Without self voting there is no way to get a three way tie.

[Myloninja13]

SORRY SORRY I am getting to this but I've been really busy recently BUT I'll be free within 24 hours from this post so sorry

[Kokichi Oma]

It's fine.

[Myloninja13]

Okay, I've got this, I'm about to sleep now but once I wake up I'll be free! Sorry for taking so long, but I know I can do this

[Kokichi Oma]

Its fine

[Feysal]

Last post over three days ago. Looks like I have to resort to a prod dodge.

[Myloninja13]

Okay, LET'S ROLL

[Kokichi Oma]

Rolling

[mutantdevle]

- If there is no real content within the next 48 hours I might have to start slapping some people.

[Myloninja13]

- If there is no real content within the next 48 hours I might have to start slapping some people.

Please don't slap me I'm here wooo

[Myloninja13]

Why do you think the other person made the night kills?

I don't think most of them require much explanation. Most of them were widely town read, and therefore difficult or impossible to mislynch, which is reason enough to kill them. Enigma is the only exception that stands out. GuiltyLion speculated that he could have slipped or crumbed or hinted at being fortunate, but if he did, I never noticed. I think that would have been a weak reason anyway, with a high risk of hitting an unfortunate instead, as he was. The most likely reason I can think of is that he suspected Kokichi. Enigma last voted Kokichi before being killed, and was the only person to do so besides Creative, who was lynched. Apart from that, you can see the suspicion in multiple posts from Enigma, including 1138, 1289, 1326 and 1416.

Throw Feysal in there. I definitely TR Elephant, Ofrhz and Feysal the most.
Conf is a strong word unless its mod or mechanic confirmed haha, I like townread better, so I don't embarrass myself end game.

Don't mind if I'm not conftown though, just would be nice not to be lynched haha.
My lynch pool is {Pine, Fridays, Kokichi}

Not only was Kokichi the last one left in Enigma's lynch pool when he died, I challenge anyone to explain why I would kill Enigma over GuiltyLion after he said this about me.

AHHH what am I even talking about?? Koki is Obv!Town here, and Feysal is Obv!Town, and really I'm scum here!

Why not vote yourself then?

I am joking, but I actually considered this yesterday. We have two fortunates and one scum left alive. If we could organize a three way tie, because of the special voting powers of fortunates, the scum would automatically be lynched in a tie without having to draw straws. Only problem is there is no way to guarantee a three way tie.

Scratch that. I'm not joking. I just had an idea as I was writing this which would increase the chance of town victory from 1/2 to 2/3.

Here is how it works. You must choose randomly who to vote, and include

yourself

in the lynch pool. Roll a die or something. 1 or 2, you vote me. 3 or 4, you vote Kokichi. 5 or 6, you vote yourself. This works because scum does not only need to convince you to vote town. Scum needs you to vote the

same

town scum is voting! By including yourself as an option, you will force scum to guess who they should vote, which increases town odds considerably.

If you vote yourself, and scum votes you, scum wins. Probability of this is 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6.
If you vote town, and scum votes town, scum wins. Probability is 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6.
If you vote yourself, but scum votes town, scum loses. Probability is 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6.
If you vote town, but scum votes you, scum loses. Probability is 1/3 * 1/2 = 1/6.
If you vote scum, it does not matter who scum votes, because the other town always votes scum. Scum loses, and the probability is 1/3.
In total, this gives town a 2/3 chance of victory.

Just to make sure I got this right, I need to ask the mod.

@Mod:

What happens in a three way tie between two fortunates and one scum? Does the scum get lynched without having to draw straws?

Is self voting allowed?

Woah, thanks for this post but now I like have to break it up into pieces lol.

First up, yes, Enigma did scumread Koki and then get killed. Which at first glance is bad for Koki but at the same point this comes back to head VS. gut because you know he was doing that means it's a super easy suspicion NK. Besides, as scum!you, I don't see what's all too crazy about killing Enigma here? At that point everyone seemed to be townreading you and Enigma, despite GL's suspicion, was not a very viable mislynch. And I'm pretty sure GL in particular was townreading you just as strongly anyway?

But then we get to this which is something I immediately panicked about lol, because I'd actually PLANNED to do this. I asked Mutant what would happen in a 3-way tie with two town and he said that the scum would be lynched. At first I was annoyed because if koki is scum you just told them the plan and meant that I couldn't safely self-vote, but as found out on the next page it wouldn't have worked regardless

Anyway, this maths is pretty cool and checks out, but considering it doesn't matter I can't reaaally give town points to it? Not as much as I'd wanted to.

[Myloninja13]

Some thoughts about that thought dump... I don't know why you would be troubled by my switch to Ofrhz. If you knew me better, you might even view it as a town tell. If I were scum, I would need to worry about appearances, and try to be reasonable and consistent with my reads. As town, I would be more likely to change my mind, being free from such concerns. Besides, I thought I had explained why I switched. The reasons Ofrhz suspected me for were so bad I did not believe they came from town, I thought he had an agenda to have me lynched. I was also pissed off. I try to be calm and logical as I play, but I'm not above getting angry. That was something Ofrhz was wrong about in his final analysis by the way. I don't think I have ever tried to appeal to emotions. If I sound angry, it is because I am. That post he quoted was in fact a bah post, written when I thought I had been speedlynched straight out of V/LA, and being unable to do anything about it because there was not even enough time for me to catch up.

As for my scum play being similar to my play here, well, you asked. I don't like to talk about my own meta, since it has gotten me in trouble with people who disagreed with my interpretation, but I have in fact never lied about it. Anyway, just because I mimic my town play as scum does not mean there are no differences. I already mentioned my level of effort and motivation as examples. As scum I also might not share my best ideas with the town. My first post in this game, where I said people should say in their last will when they became fortunate, is something I might keep to myself if I were scum. The post above about the merits of voting yourself, definitely.

AHhh so the first paragraph is really fair and it's a fair point. Koki flipping from not wanting you to wanting you is probably more suspicious than you going for Ofrhz.

The second paragraph can be a bit WIFOM but aside from the last sentence it's pretty reasonable.

[Myloninja13]

You guys aren't making this easy

[Myloninja13]

Let me know if any questions

I've got one for you

If you were scum here with Pine, how would you ideally play with him? I.e, would you mention him early, defend him, ignore him etc. ?

[Myloninja13]

See I WAS leaning Feysal now but from that I have to go back into 50/50 either way!

[Myloninja13]

OR I just got on my fucking lunch break and wanted to post before getting in the car. You guys are being ridiculous and making the game unfun. I want to contribute but every time I try you guys say some bullshit that is over analyzing. Please realize that people have lives and sometimes can't post 6 times in a row or whatever you're doing because they need to go and just want to post something then go. I think we still have at least 3 days? I dont get the panic. Like I'm legit waiting 20 minutes to post this post. The one quote above was 15 mins ago but I'm waiting for this spamming bullshit.

See this post just rings out Town!Koki. I really struggle to see scum!Koki posting this.

BUT I also see that on a few Feysal posts so AHHHH

[Myloninja13]

272

I think mylo is legitimately just VLA and not avoiding the game

Thanks!



On another note, I need to make sure neither of y'all are trying to buddy me lol

[Myloninja13]

I was looking forward to a more interesting challenge, and this is frankly disappointing. Our odds of guessing correctly twice are only 26%, and that is without scum interference. That said, I have thought of

one

strategy that may be beneficial to us, but I can't talk about it yet. If I forget to bring it up, remind me.

The good thing about this challenge is that there is no time limit. We can discuss reads to our hearts' content.

I think Chickadee may be town. Those posts about confirming whether we could share our last wills does not look like something that would even occur to scum, since they'd have to fabricate a townish last will anyway.

I don't think I've ever had such a strong town read on someone before they even posted once, but I got one from Northsidegal. Yes, posting your reads would be an easy way for a scum replacement to look good, but I really doubt those reads came from scum, particularly Myloninja. His activity makes him lynchbait, and I don't believe scum would speak that strongly on his behalf.

My last will was only a reminder to share when you became fortunate in your last will. And apparently since we have to write our last will before the new fortunate is chosen, if a fortunate dies with no mention of it, we have to assume they were chosen the same night they died.

Ehhhhh this post doesn't look to good with defending Chickadee

[Myloninja13]

Okay, I feel like putting this off for any longer is kinda pointless lol. I'll just give like you guys some time if you want to respond to anything I posted and then just do the challenge.

[Kokichi Oma]

Let me know if any questions

I've got one for you

If you were scum here with Pine, how would you ideally play with him? I.e, would you mention him early, defend him, ignore him etc. ?

He wasnt getting too much pressure in the beginning. It was mostly me bringing up things that were scummy. So as scum with him I would have focused my attention elsewhere. Probably not voted the easy lynch (who ever was lynched day 1) as future towncred and maybe voted the next scummiest town to set up for day 2

[Kokichi Oma]

272

I think mylo is legitimately just VLA and not avoiding the game

Thanks!



On another note, I need to make sure neither of y'all are trying to buddy me lol

I said this cause heroes wanted mafia you were VLA and were town I think

[Myloninja13]

Thanks for responding Koki!

Imma re-read and then do the challenge So, speak now or forever hold your peace (Until post-game discussion I suppose lol)