Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Chara]

given we've discussed this

at length

already, and this is your response, i'm giving up on it. good job. i could explain again why it's perfectly normal to have a read waver and then change it based on rereading and on new information, but i'm sure you're going to deny that too and say that any reading besides yours doesn't make sense, in the same way that you seem to think everyone must do partner analysis when sorting scumreads as well.

[Chara]

i don't understand how you can confidently say scum Amrun could only be partned with you or Hectic. why can't she be partnered with me? or Chemist? or Nacho?

Why would team Amrun/{Chara, Chemist, Nacho} spare Hectic or Farkran, instead of sparing Chara, lynching Bingle or lynching Farkran? There were plenty of opportunities for both outcomes in d2, you only had to join your efforts. You wouldn't even be scumread for any of those, since you would have been going with the consensus, not against it. Instead, Chara and Nacho were creating even more consensus for Hectic spare, Amrun was pretty much alone in pushing Bingle and Chemist spared me.

why do you assume scumteams are going to publicly push for the same outcomes?

[Chara]

like the prospect of thinking something (that i'm scum denying his spare) and then

reconsidering

is so foreign to you? i know i said i was giving up but. i just can't fathom this. i get thinking it's

strange

but thinking it impossible someone thinks this way? or that they like my later posting and it affects their read? why doesn't that make sense?

[Chara]

my last post was i think uneccessarily hostile. this probably isn't going to go anywhere and i might just leave you in null and worry about the rest of the game for this day, and i keep saying that but i keep not doing it.
i need to go now anyways.

[popsofctown]

Most recent VC: Nice Cream

[Farkran]

@Chara

Scum can dissociate their pushes and they can bus themselves. Why would they allow a town!Hectic spare when they had better outcomes available though? Sparing town - when you actually

know

they are town - is bad for the scum wincon. Sparing scum, instead, is one of the best possible outcomes for them, and town wouldn't know.

Why wouldn't you push for sparing your partner, if given the opportunity? Why wouldn't you compromise on a town mislynch, if given the opportunity? The problem with you allowing townhunt as a primary strategy is that you are NOT considering what scum would be doing when you are getting a result that looks fine but in reality should ring millions of bells in your head. You should not be fine with the gamestate, if you have no clue where scum is.

[Bingle]

hello

I’m down to fight Bingle today I think

Oh?

Do tell.

[Amrun]

Literally who wasn’t...? I tried to bargain Chemist into a single fight vote on him and couldn’t.

Psyche, cats, Chara I think, Chemist’s read was nebulous. Can’t remember your stance yesterday tbh. I think Farkran also TR that slot? Add me to the mix and it’s a spare easily tbh. Especially without me trying to constantly bring negative attention to the slot.

i don't TR Bingle.
i can only remember Psyche and Replica having a strong TR there.

Nacho asked about my Amrun read: i like the way she's interacted with Replica in spite of their disagreements re:Bingle and fighting vs. sparing. i also thought her reaction to my and Farkran's argument day 2 seemed very genuine, in how she commented on my having patience and mindmelding (which was not really the emotion but i see how she got there) and in general there hasn't been a lot that's bothered me. i think it's telling when a player with a low word-count like Amrun is easily understandable and followable. i've also agreed with a lot of her takes. not really the Bingle-scum fervor but i don't think her case is bad per se and she's said a few times she isn't 100% confident in the read. actually, Amrun, is there a reason you want to lynch Bingle more than spare Replica?

if she's scum then she's playing really well and loosely. maintaining something like that for the long haul is hard, in my experience.

Farkran: i didn't find Hectic's vote on me suspicious. it looked like paranoia and that's towny.

I was reminded of your Bingle read upon review, sorry.


I’d rather not spare Replica for the same reason he’s frustrated today. Its a demoralizing, demotivating way to play. I will do it if I have to but I don’t think I have to compromise anymore - I think fight supporters finally are in the majority.

[Bingle]

Hectic
Replica
Farkran
Amrun
Chara
Nachomamma8
Chemist1422
Bingle

Okay, so playerlist. I'm going to be going one by one through not me and looking at potential teams in this post. It will be long.

Spoiler: Hectic Teams

Looking at game state, I think if Hectic is scum, the partner would be on the spare wagon. Therefore, viable Hectic teams are:

Hectic/Nacho
Hectic/Replica
Hectic/Chara

To double check, this precludes Amrun/Farkran/Chem as buddies. Fark as a buddy is pretty :/ in the first place. I'll check Amrun/Chem voting patterns later for counterindications, but it seems likely that both of them would have spare voted Hectic given a townread there if they were S/S.

Having actually read D1 at this point, Chara's unvote after Suji and Alim expressed hammer intent on Hectic does actually strongly imply that isn't a S/S team, even from a nontown Hectic PoV or a nontown Chara PoV. Fark's insinuations otherwise are pretty :eyebrows: tbh.

Hectic/Nacho is something both Amrun and Psyche discounted, and actually I find myself agreeing there. Nacho put a lot of work into arguing and defending his Hectic townread. I'm pretty sure that doesn't come from a maybe I can get my buddy spared place, and the paranoid part of me that says that's exactly what scumNacho wants, but I don't think encouraging my paranoia is a route that's particularly helpful to go down.

Remaining potential teams:

Hectic/Replica

Spoiler: Replica Teams

Despite my overall townread here, there aren't any Replica teams I'm counting out at the moment. Vote history suggests that scumRep was probably interested in buddying SH, and the only SH pushers early were Hectic and my slot, so maybe slightly less likely there than otherwise.

Potential Replica Teams:

Replica/Farkran
Replica/Amrun
Replica/Chara
Replica/Nachomamma8
Replica/Chemist1422

Spoiler: Farkran Teams

Early lurker policy lynches are rarely busses, especially in anti bus setups, so I think it's a fair working theory that Farkran is not scum with any of [Nacho/Amrun/Suji] via VC 1.5. Additionally, Farkran's murderboner for Chara and Hectic makes them very much unlikely to be buddies.

That leaves

Farkran/Chemist

Spoiler: Amrun Teams

Amrun is pretty clearly not scum aligned with me, but that doesn't help my analysis since I'm ignoring myself for the moment. I mention this because Nacho said we had partner equity and that's bonkers. I'm also fairly certain there isn't an Amrun/Nacho team based on posts like:

1. I don’t really remember Nacho’s scumtells but he’s a good player and seems to be actively sorting and moving gamestate forward. We will do better if form together like two sides of a hatchet so for now I will treat him as town and re-eval as gamestate dictates.

2. It’s a pretty good strategy but I think it leads to an information less day. I think it’s better to proceed with the day as normal for now, but closer to deadline, revisit this. Scum knowing who the IC is will inform their play so as to render the interactions unhelpful. But it’s a good point worthy of discussion.

A) I think it has been made pretty clear that Nacho and I intend to work together at least for now. Chara not so much but it doesn’t bother me. I’m the primary pusher of Sujimichi, and Nacho is the primary defender of Hectic, though I didn’t vote to spare until I decided I agreed based on something Hectic did that was towny. This is all in thread. Chara following us IS interesting, but I think we planned/hoped to be followed so it’s not really THAT interesting until there’s some flips to sort with.

Blowing smoke up Nacho's ass about how good he is and deflecting responsibility for the Hectic spare wagon onto Nacho both come across as unaligned. It's worth noting that Amrun has consistently tr-d Nacho and talks at length about him (108 instances of Nacho in her ISO) which is not what I'd expect from a partner worried about associations.

Amrun also has non teammate spewing interactions with... All of the flipped town. Yay.

Potential Amrun Teams:

Amrun/Chara
Amrun/Chemist1422

Spoiler: Chara Teams

I see nothing precluding either a Chara/Nacho or Chara/Chem team.

Spoiler: Nacho/Chem

Unlikely. Nacho's desire for a Chem lynch yesterday when he's demonstrated the most awareness of the implications of a scum lynch on a 3/1 path doesn't seem aligned in the slightest.

Spoiler: Team Possibilities (Loosely)

Hectic/Replica
Replica/Farkran
Replica/Amrun
Replica/Chara
Replica/Nachomamma8
Replica/Chemist1422
Farkran/Chemist
Amrun/Chara
Amrun/Chemist1422
Chara/Nacho
Chara/Chem

From this:

Hectic: 1
Replica: 6
Fark: 2
Amrun: 3
Chara: 5
Nacho: 2
Chem: 4

Replica/Chara/Chem are the highest priority slots imo. I'm tr-ing Replica, which means Fark is a never-lynch-before-Chem slot and Nacho is a never-lynch-before-Chara slot. Does anyone have strong feelings about Chara/Chem (Individually, not as associatives) that they'd like to share?

Reexamining, my lynch pool for today is Amrun/Chara/Chem. Of the three I find Amrun the most scummy.

[Bingle]

I’d rather not spare Replica for the same reason he’s frustrated today. Its a demoralizing, demotivating way to play. I will do it if I have to but I don’t think I have to compromise anymore - I think fight supporters finally are in the majority.

Sparing D3 is mechanically wrong, so... Good?

[Amrun]

I have felt mindmeldy with Chara at several points which is typically something that happens with town but not guaranteed.

Chemist I liked early game but now meh.

[Bingle]

I meant to spend time on this today and didn’t. I apologize. I am halfway done with reading, though and feel considerably worse about both Fark and Amrun and considerably better about Chara.

Explain yourself. What changed?

I am no longer 2000 miles from my house and have access to my desktop once more?

If you're talking about my reads, Amrun will get her own post, but you/Chara are linked in that I don't feel the descriptions you gave of D1 were as reasonable as they sounded having read what was being described and that influenced my reads on both of you.

[Bingle]

I have felt mindmeldy with Chara at several points which is typically something that happens with town but not guaranteed.

Show me some points where you felt she mindmelded with you (preferably with pointers as to where you expressed the same feelings) if you don't mind.

[Bingle]

Literally who wasn’t...? I tried to bargain Chemist into a single fight vote on him and couldn’t.

Psyche, cats, Chara I think, Chemist’s read was nebulous. Can’t remember your stance yesterday tbh. I think Farkran also TR that slot? Add me to the mix and it’s a spare easily tbh. Especially without me trying to constantly bring negative attention to the slot.

As of my replace in, just cats.

Psyche reversed his read on me from scum to town midway through yesterday (around the time I explained my theory that scum wouldn't be loudly going against the grain) and Farkran was treating me as town because I was listening and wasn't named Chara/Hectic but not actually tr-ing me iirc. Everyone else had me as null or scum, they just had a townread or scumread they were more interested in talking about.

[Bingle]

2S/2F is the possibly most similar to a full genocide route, yet you still renounce to 2 flip info. We have 5 town-controlled kills in both routes though, because full genocide leads to a 5th lynch in New Home lylo. Of course, assuming you lynch at least one scum in the process, but then it's also true that you can spare scum within the 2S route. Analyzing spare wagon is strictly worse than fight wagons, because you don't get the flip. Even if you are forced to go down the 2S/2F route, it would still be better to lynch first and spare later. A minor mathematical advantage is insignificant compared to flip information, i will never say it enough, just in case we get to play another undertale some day in the future.

First of all, the setup is autowin if the first lynch is on scum. Second of all, if you want to play a game without a spare mechanic as opposed to just whining about the conceit of the game you signed up for for it's duration, maybe sign up for a game without a spare mechanic. Third, if you want to waste time talking about theory that's irrelevant to the game for some theoretical future game, maybe save it for the post game where your alignment is known and you're not a giant distraction.

[Bingle]

I'm going to wait on my Amrun thoughts for a bit, but my reads list is looking like:

Replica
Nacho
Fark/Chara
Chem
Amrun

I find it unlikely that Hectic is scum.

[Nachomamma8]

Hectic
Replica
Farkran
Amrun
Chara
Nachomamma8
Chemist1422
Bingle

Okay, so playerlist. I'm going to be going one by one through not me and looking at potential teams in this post. It will be long.

Spoiler: Hectic Teams

Looking at game state, I think if Hectic is scum, the partner would be on the spare wagon. Therefore, viable Hectic teams are:

Hectic/Nacho
Hectic/Replica
Hectic/Chara

To double check, this precludes Amrun/Farkran/Chem as buddies. Fark as a buddy is pretty :/ in the first place. I'll check Amrun/Chem voting patterns later for counterindications, but it seems likely that both of them would have spare voted Hectic given a townread there if they were S/S.

Having actually read D1 at this point, Chara's unvote after Suji and Alim expressed hammer intent on Hectic does actually strongly imply that isn't a S/S team, even from a nontown Hectic PoV or a nontown Chara PoV. Fark's insinuations otherwise are pretty :eyebrows: tbh.

Hectic/Nacho is something both Amrun and Psyche discounted, and actually I find myself agreeing there. Nacho put a lot of work into arguing and defending his Hectic townread. I'm pretty sure that doesn't come from a maybe I can get my buddy spared place, and the paranoid part of me that says that's exactly what scumNacho wants, but I don't think encouraging my paranoia is a route that's particularly helpful to go down.

Remaining potential teams:

Hectic/Replica

Spoiler: Replica Teams

Despite my overall townread here, there aren't any Replica teams I'm counting out at the moment. Vote history suggests that scumRep was probably interested in buddying SH, and the only SH pushers early were Hectic and my slot, so maybe slightly less likely there than otherwise.

Potential Replica Teams:

Replica/Farkran
Replica/Amrun
Replica/Chara
Replica/Nachomamma8
Replica/Chemist1422

Spoiler: Farkran Teams

Early lurker policy lynches are rarely busses, especially in anti bus setups, so I think it's a fair working theory that Farkran is not scum with any of [Nacho/Amrun/Suji] via VC 1.5. Additionally, Farkran's murderboner for Chara and Hectic makes them very much unlikely to be buddies.

That leaves

Farkran/Chemist

Spoiler: Amrun Teams

Amrun is pretty clearly not scum aligned with me, but that doesn't help my analysis since I'm ignoring myself for the moment. I mention this because Nacho said we had partner equity and that's bonkers. I'm also fairly certain there isn't an Amrun/Nacho team based on posts like:

1. I don’t really remember Nacho’s scumtells but he’s a good player and seems to be actively sorting and moving gamestate forward. We will do better if form together like two sides of a hatchet so for now I will treat him as town and re-eval as gamestate dictates.

2. It’s a pretty good strategy but I think it leads to an information less day. I think it’s better to proceed with the day as normal for now, but closer to deadline, revisit this. Scum knowing who the IC is will inform their play so as to render the interactions unhelpful. But it’s a good point worthy of discussion.

A) I think it has been made pretty clear that Nacho and I intend to work together at least for now. Chara not so much but it doesn’t bother me. I’m the primary pusher of Sujimichi, and Nacho is the primary defender of Hectic, though I didn’t vote to spare until I decided I agreed based on something Hectic did that was towny. This is all in thread. Chara following us IS interesting, but I think we planned/hoped to be followed so it’s not really THAT interesting until there’s some flips to sort with.

Blowing smoke up Nacho's ass about how good he is and deflecting responsibility for the Hectic spare wagon onto Nacho both come across as unaligned. It's worth noting that Amrun has consistently tr-d Nacho and talks at length about him (108 instances of Nacho in her ISO) which is not what I'd expect from a partner worried about associations.

Amrun also has non teammate spewing interactions with... All of the flipped town. Yay.

Potential Amrun Teams:

Amrun/Chara
Amrun/Chemist1422

Spoiler: Chara Teams

I see nothing precluding either a Chara/Nacho or Chara/Chem team.

Spoiler: Nacho/Chem

Unlikely. Nacho's desire for a Chem lynch yesterday when he's demonstrated the most awareness of the implications of a scum lynch on a 3/1 path doesn't seem aligned in the slightest.

Spoiler: Team Possibilities (Loosely)

Hectic/Replica
Replica/Farkran
Replica/Amrun
Replica/Chara
Replica/Nachomamma8
Replica/Chemist1422
Farkran/Chemist
Amrun/Chara
Amrun/Chemist1422
Chara/Nacho
Chara/Chem

From this:

Hectic: 1
Replica: 6
Fark: 2
Amrun: 3
Chara: 5
Nacho: 2
Chem: 4

Replica/Chara/Chem are the highest priority slots imo. I'm tr-ing Replica, which means Fark is a never-lynch-before-Chem slot and Nacho is a never-lynch-before-Chara slot. Does anyone have strong feelings about Chara/Chem (Individually, not as associatives) that they'd like to share?

Reexamining, my lynch pool for today is Amrun/Chara/Chem. Of the three I find Amrun the most scummy.

Good exercise.
One of the things that placed me a bit higher on Fark than I think I would be otherwise is the fact that I don't really think he can be partners with too many people.

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho have you talked about why your Replica TR is confident?

No. I'll likely get there eventually but checking the Replica read is the last thing I'm worried about since the one thing we can all agree on is that Replica is town.

[Nachomamma8]

which is badly distributed confidence on reads.

What do you mean by this? Are you saying that you can't read me because you don't understand the confidence levels I possess (and that's additionally why you can't read Chemist)? Because if so that's an unexpected one but not the craziest one that I've ever heard from someone who doesn't know me?

[Nachomamma8]

From what i have seen in your recent posting and past ISO, you have no reason to firmly townread any in {Chara, Bingle, Amrun, Chemist, Farkran, Replica}. Let's assume that you (used to) townread me based on tone and sincerity, perhaps Chara and Replica too, even though i don't particularly agree with Chara. Why do you pick Chemist over Bingle and Amrun as your top scumread? I understand that you are pairing him with both the other two, but if there is one important thing in this game is to lynch scum. This has been true ever since d1, but today even moreso.

Mmmmmmmm, not quite.
I pressed Chemist yesterday because he feels underwhelming and flat compared to the last game I played with him and because I thought I had an epiphany yesterday with the "oh he's just pushing those who were pushing the lurkers, it's a TMI push!". One of my many weaknesses as a player is that I tend to be a bit bipolar; I'll feel really super strong about something and then I'll temper it later or flip the opposite direction. You'll notice me fighting hard against this tendency today because it's the day we win the game.

At the moment, I'm not pairing shit for shit. I don't have a top scumread. When I get one I'll explain it and you'll know it and everything will be Groovy Tuesday.

[Nachomamma8]

why would that scum player also spare town!Hectic? Let's assume that it could work in d1 to pocket other people, but why would you pursue the same in d2, when you have already spared conftown

because you're scum in a pseudo-townblock and maintaining that townblock is more important than avoiding sparing town day 2 (because of the nature of Day 1, town basically got a free townspare. If you're scum that thinks you won't be able to let town get a single correct spare you're either a god amongst peasant or an arrogant idiot).

[Nachomamma8]

level of confidence displayed by people who voted him is exaggerated, misplaced.

So I get this if you're not me.
But coming from my perspective obviously I feel my Hectic townread was fine and people were persuaded by my conviction, as they often are. So this isn't the craziest thing in the world.

[Nachomamma8]

I gotta shop for some kids, I'll be back eventually

[Farkran]

Team analysis

Now this is a post i am inclined to like as a first impression, coming from the Bingle i am used to know. Why did it take so long to build some deep-insight thoughts is still a little concerning, as well as some inconsistencies within it which however i'd be more than happy to talk about.

First of all, wrt Hectic/Chara. You are reading their interactions from a future, added-knowledge point of view, one where you already know that Suji would townslip massively and claim FN. What would happen, in your opinion, if Suji wasn't widely acknowledged as town as much as he was? Chara could go back and vote Hectic at any given time. He was always going to be the d1 spare, as demonstrated by him being the

d2

spare - do you think a Hectic/Chara team would expect a different d1 outcome at that point in time?

Secondly, do you think it would be outside Nacho's scumrange to assertively townread and push his partner as a spare, in a game where the partner wouldn't flip? Let's take the long road there, and just tell me, what would you have done as scum in this game, if you started from the beginning instead of replacing in? Note that Nacho was pretty much the first slot to push Hectic as a spare, basing his case on gimmicking and a meta analysis that i would define superficial. Do you disagree on this?

WRT any chemist team, why does chemist spare Farkran if he's scum with non-Farkran? Do you think it was a vanity spare vote? If so, why did he fight Nacho, instead of pushing a mislynch on the most likely lynch wagon, i.e. Farkran himself? If he is scum with me, why didn't he push for a mislynch on the second most likely, i.e. Bingle? You did pretty much the same thing as Chemist did, yet Chemist is significantly lower than Nacho and most importantly lower than both me and Chara in your latest readlist. I do not understand why.

If i had to correct your list, it would be like this (differences in bold or striked):

Hectic/Chara
Hectic/Nacho

Hectic/Replica
Replica/Chemist1422
Replica/Amrun
Amrun/Chara (this team is also the most threatened by psyche now that i am looking at it, and would be plausible with scum on my wagon, i'll have to take a better look at their interactions - instinctively i would say that Amrun wouldn't have played the way she did if this was the case though)
Chara/Chemist
Nacho/Chara
Farkran/Chemist

Farkran/Amrun

(bus in d1 is plausible with the added knowledge of Amrun progression on Hectic and me)

Replica/Farkran

Would you really consider this when you do not admit a Amrun/Bingle team? Why?

Replica/Nacho

A psyche kill wouldn't make sense at all with this team, they would have had the best chances of being spared with... literally any different kill

Replica/Chara

This team would have either spared Chara or lynched Farkran instead of sparing Hectic in d2, they had plenty of opportunities for both outcomes

I didn't put Bingle into any team because i am talking to you, but i could easily put you in several, if i assume that Bingle's vote to spare me is vanity the same way as Chemist was.

Thoughts?

pedit: i'll answer you tomorrow Nacho, i will likely be in my bed by the time you finished

[Farkran]

2S/2F is the possibly most similar to a full genocide route, yet you still renounce to 2 flip info. We have 5 town-controlled kills in both routes though, because full genocide leads to a 5th lynch in New Home lylo. Of course, assuming you lynch at least one scum in the process, but then it's also true that you can spare scum within the 2S route. Analyzing spare wagon is strictly worse than fight wagons, because you don't get the flip. Even if you are forced to go down the 2S/2F route, it would still be better to lynch first and spare later. A minor mathematical advantage is insignificant compared to flip information, i will never say it enough, just in case we get to play another undertale some day in the future.

First of all, the setup is autowin if the first lynch is on scum. Second of all, if you want to play a game without a spare mechanic as opposed to just whining about the conceit of the game you signed up for for it's duration, maybe sign up for a game without a spare mechanic. Third, if you want to waste time talking about theory that's irrelevant to the game for some theoretical future game, maybe save it for the post game where your alignment is known and you're not a giant distraction.

A final note - if we wish to stop talking about setup spec, please consider that you could have plausibly wrong premises instead of complaining to me. I am not distracting anyone, the very post you quoted, as well as many others, were relevant to game-solving.

1) A scum lynch is close to an autowin at any point in time you get it, so i still don't understand the benefits of sparing earlier rather than later. 3S/1F is only good if the F is scum, but it doesn't make it easier to find scum. You could have spared scum and you wouldn't know, so the whole "odds are better later" argument is false.
2) The spare mechanic is not bad in a vacuum. I would have loved to make use of sparing if i were scum, because it's mostly scumsided, in my opinion. Otherwise, it just needs some tweaks to become viable.
3) Of course we can talk about it post-game, but at least during d1 i thought that pushing for spares, at least in certain circumstances that i explained at length, was scum indicative. Turned out i was wrong and i just heavily disagree with the town, generally speaking.
4) I wanted to play this game because i like pops and the Undertale theme, then i ended up not /inning when it started because of team mafia. When a free spot became available (and not filled before i could notify pops), i joined. I hate timezones.

Comments like this are really out of place coming from you specifically, being a heavy setup speculator yourself. Why do you find my posts a distraction, in this game specifically?