Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!

[The Fonz]

Right, here's the deal: I'm absolutely convinced Rogueben is groupscum. My reasons are numerous, but the major ones are dealt with below:

Whilst I think Guardian scummy, I think his defense of YB is not so unfounded. I think it's possible that YB is just being n00by. Mind you, that says nothing about his alignment, I'm still watching him, but it doesn't seem enough.... yet.

This is interesting. As is BBBScum is indirectly defending YB, by defending a town player FOR defending YB.

YB points out N9V's lurking, repeatedly, which is interesting since N9V was far from the only lurking player at that point- warning to a scumbuddy? Seems particularly keen to get mod to take action to get N9V posting.

MoS posts in, and immediately expresses strong suspicion of YB- I have a theory about scum replacements that makes me think YB is very likely to be a buddy. There's other stuff there too, like MoS seeming unusually determined to give YB the chance to claim.

And I think the clincher is sarcscum's D2 behaviour. YB, who Sarc was absolutely ADAMANT was scum at the end of the previous day, has just narrowly avoided the lynch, and then sarc goes for... Guardian.

Vote: Rogueben

I'm much less sure of the SK situation. Nearly everything MBL has done has screamed SK to me, to the extent that it's hugely wifomable whether an SK would possibly be that blatant. Then again, use of massive wifom is hardly a town tell.

I particularly liked Jack's play, Billy said several things i disagree with vehemently but doesn't look especially scummy. Yos just seems... odd.

[The Fonz]

Fonz, can you elaborate on the things that I said that you disagree with vehemently? And considering this, why you still don't find me scummy?

Stuff like this.

I hate lurker hunting. AE, that puts you one down in my book, real fast.

I side strongly with Yos/AE on the game theory/lurking argument. Though one does have to discern between lurkers and inactives.

But being wrong about game theory is not a scumtell if you believe in what you're saying. The thing to look out for in such discussions is whether or not players are expressing genuine conviction, or just saying whatever will make their opponent look bad.

I liked AE's 755, so disliked your attack on it, and I found your 870 very wishy-washy.

Also, what about Jack's play did you like? I always found Jack to be one of the more suspicious players in the game, yet several players have commented on Jack looking particularly protown. I'll have to reread to refresh myself on why I see his play differently than a lot of other players (as I recall).

I'm just going to post my full set of notes up until Jack got replaced in answer to this one.

16. Jack/White/TS

I'm not in favor of a meta-lynch of BM either. I'm in favor of getting him to adapt his playstyle so that he isn't practically

always

an immediate suspect

Frankly I don't see why he

is

always an immediate suspect and such people are useful as scum-bait anyway. The town just has to be smart enough to not speed lynch them.

With BM coming up town, this is a + for TS.

Jack's 403 = v. unlikely to be paired with YB.


Like 1569.

1621 good point.

Also, beanbagboy, why are you discussion who might be masons? Do you also want to discuss who might be cop?

Good point, and incidentally evidence that rolefishing does work as a tell.

The cop? That seemed... er, random. And how do you know there IS a cop? That sounds like you ARE the cop, trying to distance yourself from the role. (Well, you got your way, lol)

Glork makes a few good points. YB has turned himself around in my mind, from null tell noob to townish. Not definite, though, just seems townie.

More + for Jack/TS, - for YB/Ben.

I just look at the list and say " Oh, maybe I should do a pbpa on Him/her" and then start writing about them. Jack, If you could explain what makes it soo scummy, that would be really nice, because quite frankly, I do not.

You said it was random, and then you said it was for a specific reason, and now you are saying it was random again. You are changing your story under scrutiny.

QFT.

. ~n9v~ def lurking, I might remember him lurking as town, he needs to post more.

Defend's N9V's lurking, and asks him to post more, interesting, though tbf he also calls out several others.

I don't see billy as scummy.

783 is a bad argument. - Jack.

1065- Definitely NO WAY Jack is scum with YB.

[The Fonz]

Have you ever seen me play the WIFOM game as scum, Yos? It's not my style, ask anyone. I lay low and blend in like a perfect lil townie.

All the arguments for me being town/SK this game are 100% WIFOM, and they're silly in my eyes. I understand you guys might think "well, he's tryin the WIFOM just this once, no one'll ever expect it" but that's just not the case. It wouldn't be fun for me.

It strikes me that you are

deliberately

wifoming the town, which is not a good thing.

[The Fonz]

And hey, glancing over, I find it unlikely that both yos and rogueben are mafia.

You can subsitute rogue with the fonz if you want a mafia group. I think those two are the most scummy.

Hmmm. So clarification, you're thinking me/Yosarian?

[The Fonz]

What kind of 'info' do you mean?

[The Fonz]

JDodge was shot N1 and produced no results.
Glork produced innocents on the roles currently played by CrashTextDummie, Yosarian2 and myself.
Johan/Xyzzy/ManaSpryte (doc) revealed one protection on Glork; nothing else of interest.
We know there is no surviving doctor.

[The Fonz]

QFT. I mean, it's SO OBVIOUS!

[The Fonz]

Can we lynch Rogueben now please?

[The Fonz]

Aaargh why are people unvoting Rogueben!

[The Fonz]

My problem is i don't see anyone on nearly the same level of scumminess, so I can't see myself supporting any other lynch so long as the scummer formerly known as YogurtBandit is alive.

[The Fonz]

Fonz

:
Can you just give us some thoughts on the game as a whole now? You have concentrated exclusively on RB for the past several weeks, and mostly one-liners at that. I'd like to hear some informed opinion from you on the rest of the players and recent events in this game.
.

I'm afraid when one player stands out by head and shoulders, it would be disengenuous of me to even countenance supporting any other lynch.

As for Sim et al, I found Jack very pro-town when I came in, and I see him as singularly unlikely to be a RB partner. See, in particular, BBB's reaction when Jack calls him out for rolefishing (BBB further rolefishes Jack, which I don't think scum tend to do to one another).

[The Fonz]

It's possible, but he's fairly low down on my list. Whereas you remain top of the mafia list by a mile.

[The Fonz]

It would be absolutely BRILLIANT and risky play to lynch your scumpartner instead of the person you think is the SK.

I made it pretty darn clear yesterday that I didn't have a clue who the SK was.

I don't think Fonz or Yos would make that play, so I'm taking them off my list for today most likely.

I think it reflected better on Yos than myself, personally. There is no way an hypothetical Fonzscum could have gotten away with moving my vote after the 'he's my number one and I'll be voting him come hell or high water' bit.

So, MBL, CTD, Twilight.

My first impression, based on a quick readthru of CTD, is that he looks the most likely. I'll be looking closer to see who was pushing most for a YB replacement- it is a pet theory of mine that people who are scumbuddies of VI players tend to advertise their desperation to get said VI replaced with someone more competent.

[The Fonz]

Mod: can we replace CTD?

I had to replace him in a game i'm modding a month ago, so i don't think it's just lurkiness.

[The Fonz]

MBL, please explain your rationale for causing the no-lynch.

[The Fonz]

Near endgame, a mislynch is not better than just plain "getting a lynch". I didn't think RB was as likely to be scum as Yos, so I stuck to my guns. Oops.

This strikes me as a clear contradiction here.

We need to lynch

someone

. If we don't, we'll be praying for two crosskills tonight.

Emphasis mine. Of course there's an argument that no-lynch is better than lynching someone you don't think is significantly likely to be scum. But

that's not what you said.

You posted, ten minutes before deadline, arguing that it was imperative the town not no-lynch, whilst taking the action (ie, none) most likely to cause a no-lynch. With ten minutes to deadline, in the middle of the night in the States and very early morning here, there was a tiny chance anyone else would get on and switch to Yos.

In that context, I would expect a town player who honestly preferred a no-lynch to either of the alternatives whose lynch you could have caused, to make the case for why the no-lynch was preferable. Again, you did not, claiming that a lynch was necessary even as you torpedoed any possibility of one.

It's also worth noting that you 'called' RB+Yos as the scumteam. It strikes me as being basically impossible that you were being honest both when you said that, and when you subsequently decided that no-lynch was the better option than an RB lynch.

Also, this is plumbing the depths of wifom, true, but I can't see why Yos2 would still be alive if you were both town. I theorise that a living MBL with a dead town Glork and a dead town Yosarian both calling him as scum wouldn't last very long.

Vote: MisterBuddyLee

[The Fonz]

How is that analysis partial, MBL? You're a hypocrite for not hammering Simenon as much as you are for not hammering Ben. It's a bit rich to come out with this, when your stated rationale was

I found Yos scummier than Ben.

I don't know why you didn't lynch simenon. You didn't offer an explanation. Though I would hazard a guess that hammering someone who wasn't Rogueben or Yos, after calling those two as the scumpair, when presented with the option of hammering Ben, looks pretty damn incriminating.

[The Fonz]

I would be happy with either a Simenon or Yos lynch based on recent play. I can't think of anyone else I'd be enthusiastic about nailing.

If you want to ring me up for inconsistency of suspicion, that's fine, but be clear about it. I've probably got a more extensive post history in this game than any remaining player... you should really read the whole thing and decide whether I'm scum rather than base your vote off one pseudo-inconsistency.

So now you're saying you were willing to lynch Simenon? This just gets better.

I'd like you to explain how there's anything pseudo about that inconsistency.

[The Fonz]

How is that analysis partial, MBL?

I'd like you to explain how there's anything pseudo about that inconsistency.

You're not playing with amateurs this game, Fonz, so regardless of your alignment you're going to want to step up to the plate on this one.

Your analysis of this 100 page game boiled down to the following:

"MBL SAID WE NEEDED A LYNCH AND THEN HE ALLOWED NO-LYNCH"

Actually, more like 'MBL SAID WE NEEDED A LYNCH

AT THE EXACT SAME TIME

HE WAS ALLOWING A NO-LYNCH.' If I see something that has no reasonable pro-town explanation, I vote that player, unless I have very good reasons not to.

You might be able to get a couple of sloppy noobs to vote me for that, but that won't fly with this Fantastic 4, only one of which is scum.

One of those fantastic four is, well, me. Another was already voting you. But nice buddying up, nonetheless.

Yos/Fonz, whichever or you is town, please consider unvoting in case CTDscum/Twilightscum decides to pile on "carelessly". You may think such an action would point unambiguously to them as scum when I come up town, but your piecemeal analyses also beg the question: who is lazy and who is an opportunist?

At least 90% of things said in a mafia game are not indicative of alignment. It ought to be quite obvious that I didn't find you hugely town before that to the extent that I'd give you a pass for, what in my mind, is one hugely incriminating action.

But if you're so keen to see other reasons, here's some:

Yogurt
Yeah, goofy but earnest. A few dumb things like mason speculation etc, but I get a nonmanipulative read. I saw a huge difference in Yogurt town and Yogurt scum in scumchat and this looks more like town.

And let me repost an argument of mine from earlier:

I don't think Yogurt has the panache to post this as scum:

I actually belive MoS is the only one on the bandwagon that is Pro-town for the most part, since his case one me contains more info from himself and less info from Billy's Pbpa, but maybe that just what he wants.

Interesting. I actually think YB is

stupid

enough.

This looks quite a lot like coaching:

You haven't touched or analyzed their play AT ALL since. And you're dinking around on me. If I die and turn up town, you're going to get DESTROYED tomorrow. Get it together, man, or keep up the crap play if you're scum.

Also note that MoS distances from you quite a lot, and MoS is like Mr. Obvious bus. You FoSed him four times (well, one of them was

annoyed: MoS

) and never voted him, then when he was vigged you say:

Guardian, you should have known when MoS attacked me in his initial post and kept his vote on me for most of the day that he was scum. I am delicious spicy town, not unlike a chipotle remoulade, and probably wasn't nightkilled because scum knew I'd be protected after my stellar D1

So it should have been obvious he was scum, yet you never voted him? This also brings up another point: You OMGUS MoS far less than anyone else who's gone after you with comparative vigor this game.

If you think scum try to cause confusion, look at MBL, not me. He's the one confusing people right now.

I understand that "not deadline-lynching the mafia goon" is somewhat incriminating, but also terribly obvious scum play and certain to backfire the next day... and again, I don't do WIFOM.)

Claiming not to 'do' wifom is, itself, wifom. Oh, and I'm seeing your whole SK thing as a plan to get yourself 'cleared' if and when the actual SK died.

[The Fonz]

I see this whole thing about 'thorough' to be something of a diversion, MBL. It didn't make me any less right that I'd pegged YB as scum by page 40, even though that was less than half the game.

You've neither addressed my concerns properly, nor actually done any scumhunting today, as far as I can make out. You're not the only one who can play the 'you ought to know better' card.

[The Fonz]

Thok: two docs are dead. Two cops are dead. WE've only had two deaths per night, which means we almost certainly don't have a vig- there have been certain points

I can't really comment on the TCS stuff, I'll leave it to others if they want to follow you on that. Though I don't see why scum would confirm vote a partner four or five times. Also, 'YogurtBandit always looks scummy to me' seems to be a sentence i see from three or four players per game, most of whom are town. It's basically true. YogurtBandit does always look like scum. Look at any of his previous games.

What I will say speaks to your points about what's happened since I came in:

1. I can't really argue with the 'scum would bus replacing in' point there, since it was part of the logic that lead me to determining RogueBen to be scum (MoS replacing in and immediately going after him). HoweveR:

It is my conviction that RogueBen was incredibly, shamefully obvious scum at that point in the game, and I'd have a hard time seeing how anyone replacing in as town would not see this (hence CTD/You being my PE no.2).

2. Complaining about someone's 'single-mindedness' (without proclaiming the attacker to be scum) in attacking you, whenever i've seen it from scum, is not something they do to their buddies. It's something scum do when they know they'll lose an omgus battle, and don't really have a decent defence, but somehow need to discredit an attack against them.

3. The claim that I 'only really talked about RB and Sim' seems demonstrably false-I only really mentioned Sim twice, once in response to BT asking me why i thought he was likely not mafia, and once to state that he wasn't particularly high on my list of possible SKs. There's certainly no way it could honestly be claimed that I went out of my way to emphasise that I didn't think he was the SK, when I made only one sentence to that effect. Also, if I had done, WHY is that scummy? The SK is the best possible lynch in terms of scum prospects of winning the game.

I did think that his interactions with RB made him an unlikely RB buddy- so given that I was convinced of RB's scummitude, he seemed a particularly poor lynch choice. Lynch anyone but Sim, and there's at least the chance of that player being RB's buddy.

4. The Yos/MBL feud, it would seem to me, provides ample cover for any scum needing a reason to vote someone other than RB at that juncture.

[The Fonz]

Grrr. That top paragraph:

Two dead cops
Two dead docs
If we had masons, the game would be over now
If we have a vig, it's inconceivable they wouldn't have fired at any point in this game.

So there's no point in a mass claim.

[The Fonz]

I didn't claim he was clearly protown. I said I don't see how he can be part of the mafia group. I left open the possibility of him being SK. In any case, forgive me here, but what's your point?

On the two dead docs thing, I was sure that Guardian's lynch came about because there were two 'other' doctors. In any case, there remains the matter that Glork died immediately after claiming cop, which is incompatible with there being another doc alive.

FOS

Thok for craplogic since 'there aren't any doctors left alive' is an equally reasonable assumption for town to make.

[The Fonz]

Yes, and that 'other thing' was, that I thought I remembered Guardian being proven a liar due to other doctors.

[The Fonz]

No, he was proven a liar due to other claims.

[The Fonz]

Ed: That being, him surviving the night was put down to another doc protecting him. But Mana claimed doc, and said she hadn't protected him, so the only way he could have survived the night was by being scum.

Then

he 'fessed up. Although it turned out that he actually wasn't scum.

[The Fonz]

THat may have been what actually happened, but it was an extremely unlikely combination of affairs. He was as good as dead once manaspryte claimed.

[The Fonz]

What do you mean by tunnel vision, Thok? I mean, I can see how the accusation could be made, but I can't see where you've actually made it.

I do get 'tunnel vision' levelled at me a lot. See Hell on Earth and my actions re: ABR, Newbie 421 and Kilmenator, Mafia vs Wolves and Akbar which I'm sure you remember... when I see actions, or patterns of behaviour i think are incompatible with being town, i don't let up, ever (I've only ever once bussed comparably hard as scum, for the precise reason that I'd have gone for the jugular on a player who was acting in that manner had i been town). It's also partly because I don't tend to comment that much on players I've not got a strong read on.

And I can say without a shred of doubt that my read on YB/RB here was the strongest scum read i've ever gotten on anyone. Hmm... in future i think i'm going to spend much more time looking over associative tells.

Looking back over such games, the thing that really strikes is how easy it is to get me into an OMGUS war as town.

But here's the thing- I completely deny that I had any kind of SK read on simenon. I don't deny that I had him down as unlikely groupscum, a conviction that was proven correct. But I think you're trying to alter the scenario to fit into your conclusions. It seems fairly obvious to me that a scum player with a strong SK read on Sim would have pushed his lynch to get the threat of crosskill out of the way.

Also, many of the things you attribute to me apply to pretty much every player in this game. MBL and Yos didn't look much beyond one another. Billy was 'fixated' on Rogueben until Sim came along, and then concentrated on Simenon.

[The Fonz]

OK, explain the timing. I replace in, at which point Rogueben looks hella scummy. I'm voting him until deadline hits, when he remained hella scummy.

Two things.

One, what do you think a pro-town player would be likely to do in MBL's position, that is, ten minutes before lynch in the middle of the night? Do you find it disengenuous that he says we can't afford a no-lynch whilst bringing one about? If not, why not?

Two, what do you make of CTD's entry into the game?

[quote="CrashTextDummie"]

YoghurtBandit

- To be quite honest, I don't really get why he's getting so much flak at this point in the game. So far, I didn't pick up any serious scum-vibes, and several of his posts have an air of townliness to me. Of particular note is, once again, BBB-scum's behavior. He went from voting YB to finding him nooby, to finding him townish, to voting him again, which, as a whole, doesn't feel like a busing effort to me. Probably not mafia.


YogurtBandit – Certainly the most interesting character during this period, as much of the discussion revolves around him. The first post of his I found interesting was Post 516, which really seems out of place and forced (and combined with the several “confirm votes” he placed on TCS, adds to my impression that his desire to get TCS lynched is disproportionate). The case BillyTwilight presented against him doesn’t coincide with my own read of YogurtBandit too much, but I have to say it’s pretty persuasive.

One thing I find noteworthy is how hard it seemed for a wagon to take off on him. I would have expected the reaction to be a lot stronger following that BT analysis. Normally, this indicates a good wagon, but I’m not so sure in this case. Both known scum were already voting for YB at that point, and MoS was campaigning pretty heavily for his lynch, and seeing as there were a number of acceptable town wagons going on at the same time, I find it somewhat unlikely for him to bus.

Having already taken a peak at the end-of-day vote count, I don’t feel like further analysing it at this point, but I’ll definitely get back to this in the next part of my analysis. At this point, I don’t really know what to think of YB, since he’s connected to a variety of people, and I don’t feel like I have a grasp of the big picture yet.

YogurtBandit - My suspicions of him have lessened. He was a likely lynch candidate for virtually all of the pages I've read today, and I felt his reaction to this fact was reasonably pro-town. That he didn't try to take advantage of the rivaling Guardian-wagon is a point in his favor, and so is the fact that both known scum attacked him heavily. And while I wouldn't put it past MoS to bus that way, I really doubt it for Sarcastro. That at least 2 scum were on his wagon indicates to me that they didn't care which one of the two gets lynched, which strongly indicates that he's not one of them.

YogurtBandit - There was an astounding drop in activity once people lost interest in him. Looking at his posts in isolation really puts this into perspective, as you have to scroll aaaaaaall the way down to find his post page 60 contributions. The only thing of note he did was a vote on Sarc, which is a point in his favor. Everything else is basically cheerleading in the Glork/Shteven debate. Not sure he's town anymore.

YogurtBandit - He basically stopped existing. He didn't post anything of worth, and everyone pretty much ignored his presence (or lack thereof). I'm gonna have to read some of his replacement to get a feel for the role again.

Then there's his scumlist:

Scum:
White

good possibility of being scum:
Shteven
TCS
Yos

probably town:
BillyTwilight
Rogueben
Kinetic
MBL

town:
Glork

This all looks really dodgy to me. Care to shed any light?

[The Fonz]

I think this is a particularly compelling case:

beanbagboy wrote:


Whilst I think Guardian scummy, I think his defense of YB is not so unfounded. I think it's possible that YB is just being n00by. Mind you, that says nothing about his alignment, I'm still watching him, but it doesn't seem enough.... yet.



This is interesting. As is BBBScum is indirectly defending YB, by defending a town player FOR defending YB.

YB points out N9V's lurking, repeatedly, which is interesting since N9V was far from the only lurking player at that point- warning to a scumbuddy? Seems particularly keen to get mod to take action to get N9V posting.

MoS posts in, and immediately expresses strong suspicion of YB- I have a theory about scum replacements that makes me think YB is very likely to be a buddy. There's other stuff there too, like MoS seeming unusually determined to give YB the chance to claim.

And I think the clincher is sarcscum's D2 behaviour. YB, who Sarc was absolutely ADAMANT was scum at the end of the previous day, has just narrowly avoided the lynch, and then sarc goes for... Guardian.

Trying to suggest that I didn't try enough to get him lynched is rather weak. I set out my case, i re-iterated it, I chided BT for moving off RogueBen, on the spurious grounds that the wagon 'wasn't going anywhere' when it was the leading wagon. I can't help it if MBL and Yos are totally zoomed in on one another.

Your 'things we need to explain away if MLB is scum' can be explained perfectly by MBL thinking Sim was SK, but knowing that voting for someone other than Yos or Rougeben would look disengenuous. Or not knowing that he was sk, but knowing that it's a win-win: if he's town, then it makes those voting him look scummy. If he's SK, that's an opposing nightkill down.

[The Fonz]

Though can you see any reason why a

town

MBL would possibly act like that?

[The Fonz]

Yos2, what do you think of MBL's case on Billy?

[The Fonz]

*Sigh*

All that list is is a compilation of every time someone said they thought you were town, and a handful of wifom. Do I really think MoS would bus two buddies in his first post? Yes I do. This is

Mastermind of Sin

we're talking about. The meta on MoScum is more buses than Greyhound.

I like my vote plenty. When I asked you to scumhunt, you presented a long, and I feel largely fallacious case on Twilight. You didn't really look over CTD/Thok at all. You refer to Occam's razor in defence of yourself, but conspicuously fail to consider the same as a defence of BT.

THen when it's obvious I'm not buying your case on twilight, and Thok suspects me, you start backing off from your previous 'I think Fonz is town.'

I will not be voting BT or Yos today.

[The Fonz]

A summary of Fonz's less-then-mediocre contribution to the game:

Enters game. Says RB is groupscum. Says "numerous reasons but listing the major ones", lists FIVE:

* bbb defends Guardian for defending YB

(this is a MAJOR reason?)

Scum wanting to defend a partner, but not be seen to do so directly. Scumtell.

* YB points out N9V's lurking repeatedly.
(...)

There were plenty of lurkers. To fixate on one = scumtell.

* MoS expresses suspicion of YB right away.

MoS has a meta of bussing from the word go. Scumtell.

* MoS wants to give YB ample time to claim.

Not as big as the rest, but evidence of a connection.

* Start of D2, Sarc drops YB, his big "suspicion" from yesterday, goes for Guardian.

MASSIVE, ENORMOUS, enough-to-lynch-on-its own linking scumtell.

Are they "the strongest scum read you've ever seen"? (More on that a few lines down.)[/b]

It's the most confident I've ever been that another player has been scum, yes.

"Everything MBL has done has screamed SK to me"
Liked Jack, Billy doesn't look scummy, Yos is odd.

Wastes a half a post on the D1 Twilight lurker discussion.

Because I said there were things I disliked about Billy, and he asked me what they were.

Half a post hastily examining Jack, concludes he's not scum with YB. Interesting that Fonz's focus is already on the next step: finding YB's godfather before YB is lynched.

YB's

partner

. Bear in mind, unlike a certain person here, I didn't know whether RB was GF or Goon.

Attacks me for WIFOMming the town.

Deliberately wifoming the town is anti-town.

And as of January 24th, after being in the game for over six weeks, that's IT. Does not seem terribly concerned with finding an SK or Godfather, or leaving a trail of thoughts in case Rogueben gets lynched and Fonz dies overnight. Trying not to draw an SK kill, perhaps?

The game as a whole was going incredibly slowly.

Billy calls Fonz out on exactly this. Fonz dodges the question:

I'd like to hear some informed opinion from you on the rest of the players and recent events in this game.

I'm afraid when one player stands out by head and shoulders, it would be disengenuous of me to even countenance supporting any other lynch.

TERRIBLE. Read this several times. Why does Fonz dodge the real question? Is it humor? Doesn't look like it. Avoidance? Absolutely.

How is that dodging the question?

Fonz interprets the question to mean: "tell us your feelings on Jack again" so he reiterates that Jack is not scum with RB.

Is Jack not another player in this game? You're trying to assign scumminess to talking more about those players I had half-decent reads on than those I was unsure about. I call bullshit.

DAY BREAKS!

In response to MBL's assessment of the no-lynch:

I made it pretty darn clear yesterday that I didn't have a clue who the SK was.

Yes, that's the smart play as Godfather who's hoping to nail scum overnight.

Did you REALLY have no clue after reading 6 days and 120 pages of game, Fonz?

Well, you thought it was Yos, apparently.

Says CTD is his top suspect.

MBL, please explain your rationale for causing the no-lynch.

Took you three weeks to ask this question that will then become your sole basis for voting me immediately?

Absolutely. More specifically, when Yos pointed out that you posted 'we must lynch today' TEN minutes before deadline. I checked back, realised this was true, and that there was absolutely no conceivable reason for a protown MBL to do that. When someone does something completely incompatible with protown motives, I vote them.

THE NEXT DAY
Fonz votes MBL. EXCLUSIVELY for reason--MBL demanded a lynch then let no-lynch happen.

Yes. Because that, alone, is stronger evidence of being scum than anything anyone else has done in the entire 120-page game, because it cannot possibly have come from an honest and protown assessment of the game state.

Goaded, Fonz lists supporting reasons he dug up in fifteen minutes after I challenged him to. They're terrible reasons:

No, your defences are utter bullshit. I'm not going to reply individually to strawman after strawman. They're good reasons.

As for your case on Billy, actually, one might find he's done a good enough job of refuting your crap himself.

[The Fonz]

That's an interesting point. Why didn't the scum hammer someone?

Because you're the godfather?

(There's some amount of snark in that comment, but it is a plausible explanation for yesterday's voting.)

Eh? How so? If I was the other scum, then why wouldn't I have, a few days before dealine, said "Oh well, I guess I'm not going to get rougeban lynched today, don't want to risk a no-lynch here" and moved my vote over to Simoon instead?

This is the really big problem I have with Yos as GF. Being on RB all day would have been pretty effective distancing, and shifting over at the last minute to avoid a deadline lynch would have been perfectly justifiable, even pro-town looking, from a neutral POV.

[The Fonz]

THen when it's obvious I'm not buying your case on twilight, and Thok suspects me, you start backing off from your previous 'I think Fonz is town.'

I don't think I've anywhere near cleared you or made a massive flip flop on you, wtf Fonz. What a ludicrous misrepresentation. Get your head in the game.

Re-read your first post of today, then rethink. To me it's fairly clear that your play today begins with semi-clearing myself and Yos, trying to get us onside. You waffle for a bit, then when pressed on not having really done any scumhunting or analysis, say you'll look at the other players but only actually present a hit piece on BT. Then, when it's clear I'm not buying it for a second, and am highly unlikely ever to vote anyone but you, and Yos has unvoted you, appearing open to suspicion of me, your attacks switch to me.

Nevermind that you apparently didn't vote RB because you didn't want to be on the same wagon, but think that I was bussing all day. If it's entirely possible I was bussing, why was it not entirely possible he was? You can't honestly deny that you said more than once that an RB lynch was preferable to a no-lynch. You could have said no lynch other than Yos would be acceptable to you: you didn't. You continued to talk about how we couldn't no-lynch at the same time as causing one.

Oh, and as for your 'It's unusual for so many people to say MBL is protown with such vehemence' I could easily point out how Glork, for one, was equally adamant you were scum. The fact is, that deadtown players' opinions on you aren't worth a great deal, especially since you hadn't yet dropped the biggest scumtell you've presented in this game.

If you search my post history for "TCS" I think you'll see I've waffled on him as having a mild disinterested protown tone all game and thinking he's done little-to-no scumhunting, protected Yogurt at D2 lynch, and could very easily be scum.

How? TCS was voting YB most of D2, and at deadline. He does move off onto Glork for a while, To my eyes, it seems utterly clear that TCS was just so severely pissed off at Glork, he tantrum-voted him. TCS' posts there absolutely

reek

of genuine pissed-offness. Glork was attacking him, incidentally, at least in large part, for being 'tunnel-visioned' on YB. Several town players seemed to feel that Glork's attacks on TCS were over-the-top and out of order (see, I can pull that one too!)

Did I mention that

you

follow TCS onto Glork, claiming to 'not feel the sincerity?' Putting Glork one behind YB and level with Sarc? Then a couple of votes pile on each of YB and Sarc, and it becomes obvious Glork won't be lynched over either. Then you've got a coinflip between two scumbuddies, which according to you is evidence of your townness because you went for Sarc. Of course, many people the next day were expressing 'YB is very unlikely to be groupscum' sentiments, which carried him through until last night. I'm not sure they'd have done the same for Sarc.

You'd have to explain why Yogurt confirm voted his scumbuddy, like, eight times on day one.

Re-reading that section reminds me that BT jumped in on the Yogurt wagon at a point when it was likely to be decisive, (and Sarc at the time wasn't a particularly viable wagon) which reinforces my Billy-is-town feeling. The only real problem I have with Billy all game, apart from his imho misguided position on lurkers, is his unvote on RB yesterday, complete with 'this wagon isn't going anywhere, I can return at deadline' proviso, when it was the leading wagon, and then not returning at deadline.

It's a consistent wavering on my part which is not ending just because you may or may not have artfully bused your final scumpartner. Please. I seem to recall several other players having the same exact read(or lack thereof) on TCS. Your slack play this past month or two hasn't done diddly squat to change anyone's impressions, I'm sure.

This is the thing. I don't believe for a second you actually believe I'm playing slackly. You're trying to discredit me, because I'm vocally opposed to you. I didn't comment much on you or Yos yesterday, one because I was in a 'lynch one scum first, then once we've got that evidence, look for the partner' and two because I found it so utterly hard to read the pair of you. CTD lurked most of yesterday.

Add in that I felt the 'Fonz, please look at other people' was an attempt to distract me from my attacks on RBscum onto other people.

You're WRONG, Fonz, and if you're town you're the leading candidate for lynch tomorrow because you're sucking today. Open your mind. It really, honestly doesn't hurt that much after the initial sting.

Nope, I'm RIGHT. You will be lynched, and the town will win. If we get to tomorrow, and we won't,

then

I will think about tomorrow. I really don't see how explaining my reads on everyone else particularly helps the town. It just helps the scum decide which NK gives them the most favourable endgame. If I have to choose between, say, Billy and Yos tomorrow, I'll look through the game, with the additional information I'll have, then. And I'll justify my 'fixation' on you with the same reason I did for RB, and the same reason I'm doing now- the evidence for you being scum is overwhelming.

Honestly, if I was Yos or inHim as godfather, I wouldn't have been too freaked out by Yogurt's play, because he balanced mild attacks on them and MoS and went mildly after Sarc.

Would you? Or would you realise that YB had zero credibility and was likely to come up scum sooner rather than later?

This is the really big problem I have with Yos as GF. Being on RB all day would have been pretty effective distancing, and shifting over at the last minute to avoid a deadline lynch would have been perfectly justifiable, even pro-town looking, from a neutral POV.

This coming from the same person that said:

Right, here's the deal: I'm absolutely convinced Rogueben is groupscum.

Yos just seems... odd.

upon entering the game.

So even though you find Yos "odd", and you are "absolutely convinced" that RB is groupscum, you would have found it justifiable and pro-town looking if he had shifted off of RB to hammer a townie at deadline yesterday?

I'm not buying. You're full of it.

You're absolutely full of shit. There's no contradiction there whatsoever. Explain how, from a pro-town perspective, a sarc lynch is harder for Yos to justify than a no-lynch? That's the distinction. Not an RB lynch, a no-lynch. Yos, unlike me, had never claimed to have a massively strong scum read on RB.

[The Fonz]

I'm going to be away from my computer until wednesday afternoon. Since that is just over 48hrs, I thought I'd post to let everyone know.

[The Fonz]

Reasons are awesome, Yos.

[The Fonz]

OK, that's something I can work with.

First things first, I don't think it's especially likely myself, you and MBL are all town either, for completely different reasons. Also, why is that true of the point when myself, YOU, and MBL were in that little triangle, but not of MBL, myself, and Billy, which happened later?

I don't really understand your position on 'why wasn't MBL hammered?' For one thing, Billy did end up voting MBL. Thok could have hammered MBL, sure, but it's not like we're in a quickhammer ftw situation. Whoever the last scum is not only has to ensure a town lynch today, he has to look town whilst doing it. Thok's actions make a fair bit of sense for a GF trying to buy MBL's allegiance, and in any case, it seems a handful of Thok-being-Thok posts can wipe away the notion that CTD was a good godfather candidate, an opinion you voiced earlier. That said, I still have him some way behind MBL in my suspect list.


I've said enough times that I don't see how MBL's actions yesterday make sense if he's

town

. They make much more if he's scum, imho. If you really believe MBL's unwillingness to vote the goon is less likely to be a town position than my unwillingness to vote

anyone but

the goon, I'm really not sure what to say to you.

I don't have a problem with thinking Billy is likely innocent: right now, he's the guy I suspect the least. Process of elimination is a somewhat weaselish reason to suspect someone: it spares you having to really analyse their play, or explain why you think their actions make more sense from a scum than a town perspective. Plus, it's a brilliant way of keeping your options open: if you get me lynched based on that reasoning, it allows you to vote anyone tomorrow: 'Well shit, you all looked town to me. Let me look back through and see if i could pick anything up. I don't see why MBL would have acted like that as town, but I don't see why Thok would have pointed it out as town, either, when he could easily have supported an MBL lynch and left others looking worse. Hmmm.'

You owe it to the others in the game to at least make a case for why your top suspect as scum makes sense, so I'd like you to explain why you think my actions and TCS' make less sense for a townie than a GF, 'cause i really don't see it.

[The Fonz]

Nice misrepresentation there, btw. It's not MBL's unwillingness to vote the GOON that's a point in his favor, and it's rather absurd of you to pretend that's what the argument was. It's MBL's unwillingness to kill Simoon during the day, combined with the fact that the scum chose to kill Simoon at night, that I can't get around. If MBL is Godfather, can you think of ANY situation where "Lynch Simoon, kill someone else" wouldn't have been tactically better for him then "Lynch no one, kill Simoon"?

Obviously. We had seven alive heading to deadline, including two scum, and one SK. Lynch Simenon as SK, MBLscum kills one player (I'd guess that it would have been Billy) and you're left at 3-2, with two of the living town players committed to lynching Rogueben no matter who dies overnight. MBL looking suspicious as anything for having lynched Simenon over the goon.

Lynch simenon as town, it's 3-2, with the SK still alive, and MBL's painted a target on his back. I'm not sure this is a particularly pertinent scenario, since MBL probably did have Sim pegged as SK.

However, no-lynch, and if the mafia take out SimK, and the SK hits town. 3-2 endgame, MBL's not obviously outed, and the mafia has its best shot to win.

Simenon was fairly consistently anti-Yos, and never seemed to particularly suspect MBL. I think MBL's 'I'd have thought Sim would have gone for a more obvious GF candidate' line at the beginning of today was telling. He was expecting Sim to off Yos or I, I think.

That said, it does strike me as bizarre that Rogueben would choose not to break the tie between Yos and himself in his own favour, and cause a Yos lynch, if Yos is not the GF. Then again, it would also seem odd that Rogueben would allow a nonGF MBL the possibility to switch and hammer him, which is assuredly what I'd have expected townMBL to do there.

It also strikes me as bizarre that Simenon as SK did not break the three way tie in any direction other than himself, particularly as the two other players on two votes constituted two of his top three suspects.

Someone has to be playing suboptimally here.

RB, unless Yos is the GF
MBL, if anyone but MBL is.

Also of note: MBL has been 'certain' that three of the four other living players are scum at some point in the last three days.

MBL: Seriously though, if you weren't willing to lynch ANYONE but Yos, why didn't you say that with deadline impending, instead of claiming we must lynch and directly causing a no-lynch? This is what I can't get my head around.

[The Fonz]

Obviously. We had seven alive heading to deadline, including two scum, and one SK. Lynch Simenon as SK, MBLscum kills one player (I'd guess that it would have been Billy) and you're left at 3-2, with two of the living town players committed to lynching Rogueben no matter who dies overnight. MBL looking suspicious as anything for having lynched Simenon over the goon.

Lynch simenon as town, it's 3-2, with the SK still alive, and MBL's painted a target on his back. I'm not sure this is a particularly pertinent scenario, since MBL probably did have Sim pegged as SK.

However, no-lynch, and if the mafia take out SimK, and the SK hits town. 3-2 endgame, MBL's not obviously outed, and the mafia has its best shot to win.

How is the following not just about bulletproof?
Lynch Simenon as SK, kill overnight, it's 2 scum 3 town, and force all three townies to work together two days in a row to hit both scum or it's game over?
Answer: because I'm not scum

It's not bulletproof at all. Whichever of me, Yos, and Billy you kill, two of the three live, and are committed to lynching Rogueben the next day. Could you get CTD/replacement to agree with you? Possibly, but I'm not sure I'd bank on it. CTD, remember, was the only player voting you yesterday.

Anyway you slice it, you've got to get through two days, unless somehow RB doesn't get lynched today.

[The Fonz]

Thok: It doesn't take that great a leap of imagination to see why one might presume an SK would leave Rogueben, the obvious lynchbait, alive, and shoot for someone who could be the other scum. See MBL's 'Why didn't he shoot for a more obvious godfather candidate?' (Of course, there's no real reason for the SK to assume RB was the goon and not the GF, and he was pretty obvious scum- a slip?)

[The Fonz]

Sorry I've neglected this game--I've been playing in a 24/7 AIM mafia game for three weeks and it's somewhat consuming. I think I need to do another round on Yos, plus really think through the nightkills again from the perspectives of each of you to see what makes most sense.

Thok: It doesn't take that great a leap of imagination to see why one might presume an SK would leave Rogueben, the obvious lynchbait, alive, and shoot for someone who could be the other scum.

As you'll see below, at least from Simenon's perspective, RB was far and away the best choice, at least I'm pretty sure it was.

Then why did YOU say, immediately morning broke, that you were surprised simenon did not shoot for a more obvious GF candidate?

See, Fonz's point about MBL applies whether or not Simenon is lynched: if

MBL was the GF, he'd be in big trouble when RB dies, whether it's to a lynch that day, an overnight nightkill, or a RB lynch the next day. He "protected" him the whole damned game! Why wouldn't MBL take the SK out by lynch for free?

Did you? Did you really?

MBL looking suspicious as hell for lynching the SK over lynching the goon.

Strange way of looking at things. Especially considering if the SK's lynched, the goon isn't revealed... yet...

You're taking this out of context. This was stated in the scenario where MBL switches to Simenon, simenon dies, someone else gets NKed, RB gets lynched the next day, and MBL finds himself in endgame.

Your last point is just yet another gigantic wifom.

[The Fonz]

So you're genuinely trying to suggest that my Rogueben or bust position yesterday was a bus, then Yos?

[The Fonz]

OK, Yos.

So you believe that YogurtBandit, who voted once for a dead scum, at a point when it was either sarc or YB himself, confirm voted Yogurt six times. Seriously, look at all the other people he suspected. If I'm GF, that means he bussed his godfather, and only his godfather.

You believe that TCS would, as Godfather, explode at Glork of all people? Then, having called Glork everything under the sun, return just in time to vote for a scum at deadline?


You believe that Mastermind of Sin, the number one biggest driver of buses on MS, somehow neglected to distance from his Godfather at all?

You believe that I, as Godfather, would replace in and immediately go hammer and tongs after the goon, accepting not even the suggestion of any other lynch, leaving myself zero wiggle room?

And yet, you're willing to believe all MBL's distortions, all his hypocrisies, because he took one action... which you at the time thought so anti-town it was worth a vote, but now are using as your entire justification for voting me over him.

@MBL: I don't hold being a prick against you. Being a prick is just who your mafia persona is. You were worse in the one previous game we played together, and you were town. I do hold against you the fact that you've been scummy as hell.

[The Fonz]

Happy scumday! You're a most worthy adversary. And you're scum.

vote: Fonz

Not allowing for the possibility we might be team-mates? Basically a scum claim there.

[The Fonz]

You. (Yes, I know I said I wouldn't countenance lynching you today. I still won't, probably, but you've moved up on my scumladder recently. OMGUS? Perhaps).

Billy's whole 'this wagon isn't moving, I can return at deadline' thing and then not doing so is kinda scummy. But over the game as a whole, I've gotten a townish vibe.

I suspected CTD a fair bit, but Thok has appeared to make a genuine attempt to scumhunt here, and his play is consistent with what i've seen of him as town before. Plus, Rogueben's not switching to save himself makes even less sense if he knew his GF was absent and wouldn't be riding to the rescue.

Whereas your actions... well, I can't shake the feeling that supporting a Fonz lynch, then going for an MBL lynch tomorrow, is fairly optimal for scum in your position. I'm suspicious of the speed with which you dropped a suspicion of MBL that had been fairly serious and longlasting over a point I didn't see as a town tell at all, and certainly wasn't one you couldn't have noticed yourself.

[The Fonz]

Heh. So basically, Fonz, your attacks on RB yesterady are supposed to be 100% proof that you're town, while my attacks on him yesterday don't prove anything, huh?

Where did I say they were 100% proof? I think they count in my favour, yes. If I thought they were 100% proof, I wouldn't have needed to provide additional evidence in my defence. Yours count in your favour, too. Rogueben not shifting his own vote counts in your disfavour. This shit is complicated.

Your case on me basically rests on three points:

1. You think my attacks on RB

could

have been a bus.
2. You think that MBL not being hammered when you and I were voting him means that it's unlikely all three of us are town
3. You think that MBL can't be scum because he didn't hammer simenon.

The first is not evidence for me being scum in itself, the second I don't think is particularly valid, though probably true by accident (since I think you or he is the scum) and the third is not a towntell but a scumtell in my view. Do you find MBL's explanation of his motives convincing?

[The Fonz]

I never said the first was evidence of you being scum. Of course it's not, inherently.

Of course. But without that, your evidence is:

1. Because MBL was not hammered, one of MBL, yourself, and me has to be scum.
2. Because MBL did not hammer Simenon given the opportunity, he's unlikely scum.
3. Process of elimination makes me scum.

Except of course, I' m not scum, so one or two has to be flawed.

If you're using 1) as a premise, this pretty much commits you to voting MBL tomorrow, n'est-ce pas?

Basically, if I was right earlier that either you or billy twilight is scum, then the question really is, which looks more buslike; your attacks on RB yesterday, or Billy's attacks on Yogurt/RB for much of the game? That's what I've been trying to figure out. Attacking a scum is a point in your favor, but everyone has points in their favor now.

I'm simply not going to try to convince you BillyTwilight is scum, because I don't believe that he is.

As for the third point, I wouldn't say he CAN"T be scum, but I think that that series of events (MBL allows a no-lynch to happen, then the scum kills simoon) dosn't make a lot of sense from a "MBL is scum" point of view. If he was scum, he'd obv. have been better off lynching Simoon then nightkilling someone else then by no-lynching then killing Simoon, no matter if Simoon was a SK or not.

Again, I just flat-out disagree with this assessment. Lynch RB is obviously suboptimal for MBL-GF. Lynching Sim is what he'd do if WIFOM didn't exist, ie, the optimal play if people's motivations came into play.

But answer me this:

Do you honestly not feel that choosing to vote with the goon to lynch someone else, having listed the possibilities as 1. Lynch Yos 2. Lynch RB 3. No-lynch is leaning on the 'dead giveaway' side? Yes, this does assume RB gets lynched today after a sim lynch. I wouldn't have countenanced lynching anyone else: you have been representing yourself as pretty solidly anti-RB. Billy has been pushing RB all game, with the exception of the rather curious incident of the unvote yesterday. Now, probably MBL kills off one of those, and hopes CTD goes for... well, you, I suppose.

No-lynching has a fairly obvious advantage over lynching RB, since in both cases, he could present the choice as suboptimal for a RB partner, but he can still make the argument 'Well why wouldn't I have voted Sim?'

And neither you nor MBL has presented a reasonable explanation of his no-lynch causing behaviour. 'I didn't want to vote with Yos-' fine, except that the Yos-driven wagon was not the only one available. Frankly, I'd have expected a

town

MBL to be more likely to vote Simenon than allow the no-lynch, given his at the time stated belief that we had to lynch someone, and his subsequent claim that his doing something that contradicted what he was saying - at the exact same moment he was saying it - because of suspicion of you.

So to my mind, MBL's actions don't make sense from any perspective other than scum trying to pull wifom games.

And honestly, I just get kind of a bad feeling about you today. It seems like you're unwilling to re-consider your MBL position at all, or even to understand why someone might disagree with you, to the point where you're acting like disagreeing with you over this is some kind of scum-tell in and of itself. The whole vibe I'm getting from you today just feels like you're likely to be scum who's committed himself to a wagon that he can't afford to see fail, not like town who's considering all the possibilities.

Right back at you now. I've got a horrible feeling about your play today. Thok comes in, and suspects me, and makes an argument in defence your number one suspect MBL, which there's no way you couldn't have seen yourself, and all of a sudden it's a compelling argument for his innocence, and process of elimination means I

have

to be scum.

And, also, the notion that I'm not considering other possibilities- I just stated a fairly strong suspicion of you. I find it deeply scummy that you earlier claimed 'scum can't rule people out' now you're basically suggesting it's scummy of me to not suspect BT, and to have reduced my suspicion of Thok in reaction to events.

Yes, MBL remains my number one scum candidate. I believe that the case on him is the most compelling, and only in the situation where we were facing a deadline lynch and his death was not a possibility would I vote elsewhere.

Besides, your theory on me here, which is basically "Yos is probably scum who's hoping to get me lynched today and MBL lynched tommorow", just feels really scummy. First of all, it feels like you're trying to intimidate me and others to get on the wagon by implying that disagreeing with you here is itself a scumtell.

Yes, because my attacking you, and telling you that you are my number two suspect is SO the best way to get you to vote with me. Really.

You certanly seemed to think I was pro-town back when I was agreeing with you, after all. Secondly, it dosn't make a lot of sense in and of itself; if I was hoping to get MBL lynched tommorow, then why am I going after his most venement attacker today?

His most vehement attacker coming up town looks rather bad for MBL, don't you think?

If I get you lynched today, that actually dramatically lowers the odds of MBL being lynched tommorow. And finally, it kind of illustrates my point, the main reason I asked you that question, that from my point of view, by process of elimination, you're almost certanly scum, there really is almost no one else left who's likely scum at this point.

You've got to get SOMEONE lynched if you're the GF, Yos. And a Yos-MBL-Thok mislynch of me probably leaves you in a better position than a Fonz-BT-Yos driven mislynch of MBL. It's at least no worse.

[The Fonz]

Massprod?

[The Fonz]

Got poked. Tomorrow/Friday suck for me timewise and I really need to get some sleep today.

I'm confused why The Fonz doesn't think Yos leading what would be a Yos/BT/Fonz lead lynch of MBL would be better play for scumYos then the whole flip-flop issue. HyposcumYos was likely already winning this game before the flip-flop on MBL. (Seriously, assume Yos doesn't flip-flop. Of the three nightkills for hypoYosscum after an MBLtown lynch, I'd favor Yosscum getting somebody else lynched in at least two of them [the ones where I'm not killed].) If Yos is scum, I don't see why he'd need to make waves this late in the game.

I'd have difficulty seeing how Yos would get you lynched over himself. I haven't seen any indication you'd vote for BT rather than Yos. Plus, the very substance of the argument chosen sets up the Fonz-then-MBL double mislynch, if Yos is scum.

And neither you nor MBL has presented a reasonable explanation of his no-lynch causing behaviour.

This is the kind of thing I'm talking about. It feels like you're trying to link me to MBL, which is clearly impossible, or else that you're trying to attack me in order to undermine my defense of MBL and set me up for a mislynch tommorow after you get MBL mislynched today. Otherwise, I just don't see how you could logically be attacking me like this and still keeping your vote on MBL. Your play just dosn't feel pro-town at all here.

If you are supporting a lynch on process of elimination, you have to be pretty sure the person you're eliminating is town, yes? There being no reasonable pro-town explanation for his actions is a fairly substantial argument against him being town.

I'm not trying to link you to MBL- I'm trying to comprehend why you, as rational town, would clear a horrendously scummy player and vote for a non-scummy one instead. Your behaviour just doesn't make sense to me, and is hugely frustrating. Since you're not acting how I'd expect townYos to act, the possibilities are either that you're playing well below your usual level just because you happen to have gotten a horrendous read, or you're scum. It would be remiss of me to dismiss either possibility.

And obveously, it's not my job to explain MBL's actions. I'm not sure why you would expect me to "present an explination" for his behavior.

Well, yeah. Thok's argument was quite strong. And if MBL is town, then yeah, you pretty much have to be scum.

Well, from your claimed perspective, yes. I don't think Thok's argument was particularly strong- as BT noted, it was basically the exact same argument that MBL himself was presenting.

And, also, the notion that I'm not considering other possibilities- I just stated a fairly strong suspicion of you. I find it deeply scummy that you earlier claimed 'scum can't rule people out' now you're basically suggesting it's scummy of me to not suspect BT, and to have reduced my suspicion of Thok in reaction to events.

No, it's not scummy of you to not supect BT. My point is that you seem to agree with me that neither Thok or BT are likely to be scum; or at least you're unable to make a case against either of them. So, since I know I'm town, from my point of view that makes it either you or MBL, and I don't think it's MBL. So that's why I'm voting for you. Process of elimination for the win.

That's fine. I'm certain it's MBL or you, and I think it's probably him. But your 'lalala I can't hear you' argument in favour of MBL being town doesn't help your cause. Any argument I bring, your response is 'I don't believe MBL would have allowed no-lynch as scum.' But he defended the known scum and I attacked him? "Yeah, but I don't believe MBL would have allowed the no-lynch as scum.' He has no reason to act like that as TOWN either. Scum allows the wifom possibilities. "Yeah, but I don't believe MBL would have acted like that as scum."

Yes, because my attacking you, and telling you that you are my number two suspect is SO the best way to get you to vote with me. Really.

You're not trying to get me to vote MBL here. Assuming you're scum, you're pretty clearly trying to get Thok to vote MBL today, then kill off someone tonight and try to get me lynched tommorow. That's what your gameplan looks like to me, anyway.

Actually, I am trying to get you to vote MBL, with the caveat that it's hugely frustrating and possibly doomed from the start. I'm just not willing to shift my conviction that MBL is scummiest, you second and daylight third in order to achieve it.

My lynch priority certainly

is

MBL then you: you're my top two suspects. I believe this would guarantee a town win.

[The Fonz]

Ironically, all your defence of Yos does is confirm my impression that you're town, and therefore that Yos or MBL must be the scum. You're narrowing your options, and there seems little reason not to put me out of my misery now if you are indeed scum- I don't see how you lose an endgame in that scenario.

A question for Yos: what happens once you've eliminated everyone, and the person you're left with comes up town?

[The Fonz]

BT, can you explain why you didn't move your vote from Simenon to RB in 2969, when a deadline had just been announced, or in 2981 when there was less than a day until the deadline hit?

(I have read your most recent posts, but I want to hear you discuss this issue, since it hasn't been brought up at all.)

ER, Thok...

Re-reading that section reminds me that BT jumped in on the Yogurt wagon at a point when it was likely to be decisive, (and Sarc at the time wasn't a particularly viable wagon) which reinforces my Billy-is-town feeling.

The only real problem I have with Billy all game,

apart from his imho misguided position on lurkers,

is his unvote on RB yesterday, complete with 'this wagon isn't going anywhere, I can return at deadline' proviso, when it was the leading wagon, and then not returning at deadline.

Billy's whole 'this wagon isn't moving, I can return at deadline' thing and then not doing so is kinda scummy. But over the game as a whole, I've gotten a townish vibe.

[The Fonz]

Another thing to consider. Fonz hasn't played like scum looking to add a notch to his belt. Would he really be this indifferent if he was the last scum? He's a much more involved player than this, and I'm guessng the size of the game and the minimal payoff for a town victory is keeping him from doing due diligence.

I resent this, MBL: I've done due diligence on Billy. The one thing that perturbed me, is the reason for this current period of pressure, and I acknowledged it, but it still didn't make him in your league, in terms of scumminess in my eyes. I felt your last attempt to make a case on BT was not only unconvincing but actually scummy, as was abandoning it and moving onto me when it seemed you weren't going to get me or Yos to go along with it.

It struck me that your case was 'YB mentioned Billy a lot, and also mentioned his buddies a lot.' Which is not a good case, since Billy being YB's primary antagonist is also a good explanation. (Though iirc, YB is quite an omgussy player- I should remind myself if that's true, but then again, that would involved reading YB posts).

I "caught or bused" MoS and Sarcastro and thought YB was town all game even as he was bringing MoS and Sarc down. What would the godfather do? Yes, bus the tard.

WIFOM.

First of all, I have commented in the past about the things you've done that seem pro-townish. Example:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 160#947160

But there's always been something not right about you this game, and your sheer post volume is not going to pull you through in the face of the following primary evidence points against you. Most-compelling first:

1. Billy changed his mind about YB (after hammering YB brutally all game) once YB was the last remaining goon

Somewhat compelling, but Billy's explanation is decent. Both known scum being on a wagon would cause me to think twice about it. In fact, it's probably

2. Billy wanted to quit this game only just two weeks after he asked not to be replaced. That two week interim happened to be very bad for scum. Billy later claimed inHim was scum for "wanting to quit in a tough situation," when the evidence actually shows that Billy was the one who wanted to quit.

I am generally wary of any 'X wanted replacing, due to being scum' argument. RL issues are by far the most usual cause for requesting replacement, and to claim them when they don't exist is bush league.

Though that, of course, does make BT's attack on InHim look scummy.

3. Billy's bitterness about the Sarc lynch. No joy at two scum dead in two nights, instead resentful that his wrong scumpartner got killed--the one he wasn't busing.

Plausible, I suppose- but how many times have you seen town claim that 'town got lucky, that wasn't a good case?' A: Plenty.

Billy was voting Simenon, did not move to RB to get a lynch even though he said he'd support an RB lynch.

Pot, kettle...

5. Billy avoided this game, pretending to be away during the Sarc lynch, and then complained about the Sarc lynch the next day even though he had been afraid to be seen steering it.

Pretended? And why would he be afraid to be seen steering a scum lynch?

6. Yogurt to Billy: "You and your scumbuddies are latched onto me" (vote count is Yogurt 3 (Billy, MoS, Sarc)

I can't find a single votecount where it has those three, and only those three, on YB. Jack was voting YB before Billy was, and never unvoted him.

7. Yogurt: "It seems most pepole are following him(BT) in voting me... Could All 4 Scum be on my wagon?" (When MoS, Sarc and Billy are all on YB)

See 6. above and 9. below.

8. Billy suspected Simenon, Simenon died as SK.

You also used 'Fonz did not express suspicion of Simenon, Sim died as SK' as an argument against me today.

9. Yogurt to Billy: "I think you are the scum leader/GF"[/quoted]

To be fair, this is quite damning, because YB is actually that stupid. You may recall part of my case on RB being that YB fixated on N9V when several players were lurking.

12. Billy's scumhunting was mediocre, "catching" only the SK and the weakest scum player, never poking at MoS or Sarc.

No-one

votes MoS on day one. He dies night one. So how much time did Billy have to 'poke' MoS? This just comes back to 'He attacked YB rather than Sarc' which, again, is nowhere near as strong as you seem to think it is.

13. Both Billy and I "distanced" ourselves from the SK kill of Kinetic, but RB found me suspect for it and not Twilight.

So? He never actually voted you. This could cut either way.

[The Fonz]

Misrep, YET again. I've read YB's posts in

this

game many times. Apparently, humour is completely lost on certain people.

[The Fonz]

Heh. Kind of the exact mirror of my thoughts- I'd say I'd have a better chance of talking Yos into lynching BT than MBL over me, bizarre as that sounds when you consider how long they spent at each other's throats.

Wouldn't surprise me if BT is scum, but if he is, there's a ton of questions i'd want to ask MBL.

[The Fonz]

Wahoo!

Now, MBL, about your votehopping today...

[The Fonz]

It frustrated me when he used it to conclude that

I

was the scum, yes. At least I'm getting better at not blowing up in that scenario.

I don't think you'd have had a prayer in endgame anyway, tbh Billy.

[The Fonz]

In the speedlynch example, probably.

Tbh, in the entire 130 pages of game, that one post by YB where he said he thought Billy was the mafia GF added up to more evidence of BT-GF than everything else that went on altogether, in my eyes.

Shamefully, I think at one point there was a time, when no-one really was on RB when I was about to post 'And I still want an explanation from Billy for saying he'd return to RB at deadline then not doing so' but chickened out because it looked like a cleancut MBL vs me choice, and I didn't want to antagonise my one apparently staunch ally.

Mad props to MBL for continuing fighting in the face of a seemingly hopeless situation, and dragging up the kind of stuff that would have caused me to vote MBL at lylo, even if we had taken down MBL first. A lesson to all there.

[The Fonz]

To put things in perspective, Open 60, with the same setup, finished one day after this one. It started on January 5th of this year. This one started may 23rd of last year.