Mafia 73: NEGWLTWWWTKY - Abandoned!
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
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Hi all. I've just finished the extremely arduous task of going through the last three pages. I'll try to get up to speed as we go along. My impressions so far...
Vollkan is a much braver man than I.
ABR had a bunch of opinions.
I really wish ABR had given some reasons for his opinions.
Toaster Strudel seems to be the bandwagon of the moment.
There are a bunch of not-really-active people.
Setael is worrying me a bit. Her apparent target, Erg0, is also worrying me a bit.
Here's a few questions to help me get a feel for this game. Please answer your question if you are town. If you aren't town, you don't have to answer.
Vollkan, what do you think about Toaster Strudel?
Toaster Strudel, what do you think about Bookitty?
Bookitty, what do you think about Setael?
Setael, what do you think about IH?
IH, what do you think about Battle Mage?
Battle Mage, what do you think about Erg0?
Erg0, what do you think about zu_Faul?
zu_Faul, what do you think about the lurkers?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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Some of the questions are ones I think will have enlightening answers. Some of them are there mostly to make sure everyone gets a question. I tried to make sure that I asked each person about someone they haven't said much about (at least not in the pages I read).Erg0 wrote:Xyl, any particular reasoning behind that list? I understand that it must be tough to replace into a game of this length, but that really looks like questioning for the sake of questioning to me.
In general, I find it very useful to ask for opinions on the people who aren't being actively discussed. It helps me get a sense of who is sincerely looking for scum, and who isn't.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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I don't see any particular reason to trust a claim of not having read his role PM. If he was acting scummy, you shouldn't let him off the hook, regardless of his claim. If he wasn't acting scummy then it shouldn't be an issue.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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Ok, so I read Quagmire's early posts. They're definitely not what I would call protown behavior. Seriously, if you're going to not read your role PM, you should at least try to play as if you read it and it said townie. Actuallyclaimingthat you didn't read your role PM is a horrible idea no matter what side you're on.
In other words, I have no idea if Quagmire is scum, but I'm quite sure he's a bad player.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Players who have posted in the last week (9): zu_Faul, Xylthixlm, Bookitty, Setael, hasdgfas, vollkan, Battle Mage, Erg0, Toaster Strudel
Players who haven't posted in the last week (6): Sir Tornado, JordanA24, IH, YagamiLight, Panzerjager, schizmatized
I don't really see anything we can do other than start lynching lurkers. Any suggestions on who should go first?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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With 9 active players and 8 to lynch, we have basically no chance of lynching anyonebuta lurker. Hopefully, a lurker wagon will at least get the game moving again, and we won't have to go through this again tomorrow...#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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Normally, knowing who thinks who is town isJordanA24 wrote:Peers' death was certainly an interesting revelation, if ABR hadn't claimed Mason at the start of the day, I'd be pretty suspicious of him for his continued pushing on Peers to claim his target, which would achieve nothing for the town, barring some very stupid scum/SK/Vig, and give the scum an advantage by telling them who the Doc thinks is town and maybe a power-role.good. Why shouldn't the doc disclose targets? I'm really curious, because my experience in IRC games has been that the town is helped by outed power roles (of any sort) claiming their targets.
This seems odd. Yes, players who have totally abandoned the game should be replaced - but what about people who are still playing but contributing as little as possible? What is your strategy to prevent scum from lurking their way through the game?JordanA24 wrote:Lynching Lurkers=. I cannot think of a more opportunistic vote than a vote on somebody who's lurking because of lurking. That lurker will not be able to defend himself until he comes back, which may be too late, that lurker may not come back at all, putting the replacement (if there is one) under great pressure when they arrive, and the lurker might not even have a chance to claim if he is a power-role.BAD!#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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I just use estimated scum probabilities, and usually vote the person with the highest. Starting at 50% seems weird - is it just a more numerical way of expressing your subjective impressions?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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Did a reread on Erg0. I don't like the way he tried to get Peers lynched when he (mistakenly) came up alive. Why try to lynch the claimed doc? That seems like doing the scum's work for them. Sure, he might have survived because he's scum... but there's no reason to lynch him immediately. If he's scum he would get caught when the real doc dies, and if he's the doc the scum would want to kill him before too long.
Vote Erg0
In other news, I'm pretty sure hasdgfas isn't scum. If I have time I'll see if there's anyone suspicious on his wagon.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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This is very interesting, because it implies that if Toaster Strudel has a non-Villager role it starts with N, E, G, W, L, T, K, or Y. That excludes pretty much every role I can think of ... except Werewolf. (Nurse is possible, but it would imply the presence of a Doctor, and D isn't in the list.)Toaster Strudel wrote:
For the record, I thought each letter represented the first letter of a role in the game. For instance, there are 4 "W" which I thought to signify 4 werewolves. WithToaster Strudel wrote:
Since you're in a mind to speculate, why do you think the name of the game isPeers wrote:Personally, I think if there's only four scum, then we've got a huge number of vanilla townies. Maybe two power roles at most. I think it's more likely that there's five scum and four power roles. I've been in a six-scum 19-player game, but that was two mafias in a no-cross-kill game, so I don't think we've got that many. Four or five makes the most sense...?NEGWLTWWWTKYasons andMailkeepers I have to reckon I supposed wrong.J
So either Toaster Strudel is a Villager and claimed unnecessarily, or he's a Werewolf and wasn't thinking hard enough before posting. Hmmm.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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It's obvious from the flavor that the werewolf kill was Yosarian2. That means that the scum groupErg0 wrote:It's interesting that you see it that way, given that the delayed kill actually proved the basis for my vote was valid: If he was really the doctor I would have expected him to be killed overnight - and he was. There's only so long that you can leave someone alive and wait for them to be nightkilled, especially in a closed setup where you never know how close you are to losing. As much as people always say "well, the scum might have left him alive to create a WIFOM lynch", I rarely see it actually happen - especially with multiple killing groups as we have here.didleave him alive to create a WIFOM lynch.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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That makes it sound like you're not part of the general populace.Erg0 wrote:
Except that it encourages role speculation from the general populace, which is seldom helpful to the town.Xylthixlm wrote:I'm betting that the scum noticed it already, so my bringing it up can't hurt.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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I know what perspective tells look like. That isn't one of them.Toaster Strudel wrote:
Hasdagas practically just confessed.Xylthixlm wrote:FoS: Toaster Strudelfor his incredibly opportunistic attempt to redirect suspicion to hasdgfas. hasdgfas isn't scum.
He tripped on his semantic shoelaces.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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hadgfas's post contains a counterfactual construction ("even if I were scum") whichToaster Strudel wrote:
Please explain.Xylthixlm wrote:I know what perspective tells look like. That isn't one of them.requiresthe rest of the sentence ("the others") to match the counterfactual. His use of "others" doesn't give any info because he would have to say it the same way no matter what his alignment.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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I'm ... astonished. Really. I thought you were a good player.vollkan wrote:
I couldn't glean anything significant from any of his posts coming after where I stopped.Xylthixlm wrote: vollkan, why does your analysis of hasdgfas stop at the end of day 1?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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That's part of what's so significant.vollkan wrote:Excellent.
In that case, you won't mind telling me precisely what I missed that was so significant?
Hasd has not cast a vote or FoS since post 73 - nor has he pushed any cases.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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He changed his mind on Peers, though.vollkan wrote:Certainly, I agree with you. That fits with the rest of his play for most of this game. He's only really gone against popular targets and his cases, most notably that on Peers, are lackluster.Beforehis retroactive death overnight.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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When day 2 started, Peers was mistakenly listed as still alive. The game progressed for a while before the mod fixed the error and made Peers retroactively dead.vollkan wrote:
Explain.Xylthixlm wrote:
He changed his mind on Peers, though.vollkan wrote:Certainly, I agree with you. That fits with the rest of his play for most of this game. He's only really gone against popular targets and his cases, most notably that on Peers, are lackluster.Beforehis retroactive death overnight.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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I was dropping hints to see who would figure out hasdgfas's role (he'd already outed himself). I'm very suspicious of vollkan for not admitting to seeing it in his PBPA, but maybe he's never seen CPR doc before.
The case for hasdgfas being CPR doc was pretty tight even before he claimed. First, Peers turns up alive. hasdgfas is surprised and concludes that either Peers is kill immune or someone tried to kill him. He says as much in thread. Some time later, Shanba reads the thread, notices that Peers should actually be dead, and retroactively kills him.
There's really no possible way for the claim to be fake. Try to think of a sequence of events that would lead to Peers showing up town, hasdgfas claiming CPR doc, and then Peers actually being dead. Any fake claim attempt would have been screwed up by the mod error.
As for the mod error itself, it's unlikely that Shanba would forget to resolve a normal night kill - but he might forget to have a CPR attempt kill the doc, especially if he was assuming that the scum would target Peers.
Everyone who jumped on hasdfas in the last few pages isextremelysuspicious. More analysis when I get a chance.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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I knew that because I had already deduced that he was a CPR doc. That's why I said I was "pretty sure hasdgfas isn't scum" here.Spambot wrote:
How do you know that? Toaster seems to be pretty aggressive here, and I like that.Xylthixlm wrote:FoS: Toaster Strudelfor his incredibly opportunistic attempt to redirect suspicion to hasdgfas. hasdgfas isn't scum.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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Interesting. DGB assumes without support that hasdgfas must have an information role.DrippingGoofball wrote:
No, but whatever your role is, all I want to know, is why you didn't target Quagmire, whose alignment we most sorely needed to settle?hasdgfas wrote:vollkan: me explaining my comments on Peers would involve a role claim. Do you want me to do that now?
What reason could there be to target Peers, who was condemned to die? Who would need to check up anything on Peers?
So does Toaster Strudel.Toaster Strudel wrote:Certainly not a cop, or a tracker, or anything else I can thinjk of, because they would know that it's a totally wasted investigation.
Setael follows suit.Setael wrote:If hadf is our cop and he investigated the claimed doc last night, I give up. Town has no chance when our best power roles don't know what the hell they're doing.
He also shouldn't have outed himself so obviously, whatever he is. If he is town, I'm officially annoyed.
I'm really hoping he's scum at this point and that we have a real cop out there who will actually be useful.
Then Setael figures it out. This isSetael wrote:I have a theory, but I don't know if it's wise to say it at this point. Anything I can think of still leads to hasdf, if protown, having outed himself unnecessarily. So I'm still annoyed.
I don't think hasdf is the lynch for today. I think he's being wagoned to get a full claim out of him. I don't see any way his statements can be reconciled with him being scum.exactlythe protown reaction I was looking for. Go Setael!
Erg0 fails to get the memo, and assumes that hasdgfas must be an info role just like DGB and TS did.Erg0 wrote:This whole thing makes very little sense. I can't think of any information role that would give hasdfgas the knowledge that Peers was targeted for a kill and survived. A wathcer could see that he was targeted, but not the type of action that he was targeted for. A cop could see that he was innocent, but not whether he was targeted for a kill.
First conclusion: Many peoplefailat metagaming Shanba.
Second conclusion: DGB, TS, and Erg0 first assumed that hasdgfas was claiming an info role, and then tried to lynch himbefore he could claim.
FoS: DGB, TS, Erg0
Now I need to figure out which of those three we should lynch first.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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Post 1694: Bookitty, TS, schizmatized are voting hasdgfas. (3/8 to lynch)
Post 1727: vollkan votes hasdgfas. (4/8)
Post 1729: hasdgfas offers to claim.
Post 1751: Erg0 votes hasdgfas. (5/8)
Post 1753: hasdgfas claims.
Post 1756: Erg0 unvotes. (4/8)
Post 1781: vollkan unvotes. (3/8)
Post 1791: TS unvotes. (2/8)
Erg0 is right about his vote. TS's "I don't even want a claim" and "The only thing saving Hasdagas' bovine behind is the breadcrumb." really reek of scum to me.
unvote Erg0, vote Toaster Strudel
BTW, hasdgfas, should I pronounce your name "has dug fast" or "has dog face"?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
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So youvollkan wrote:I checked off against all the common town power roles (since I was concerned about that possibility), but couldn't justify what he had said from any such perspective.didsee that what he said was possibly a partial role claim. If that's the case, why did you leave it out of your PBPA?#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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QFTSpambot wrote:
I know I'm answering for him, but YES YES YES. Lurking is lazy, you are not helping the town at all, often you could be giving away that you're a power role, and it is making it impossible to tell who is scum lurking and who is just a terrible townie.JordanA24 wrote:So, do you feel that lurking=scummy?
Lurking is anti-town behavior, 100%. Scum hate posting. Townies are lazy. If no townies are lazy, scum are in trouble.
[/hypocrisy]#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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This one.vollkan wrote:
I seem to recall you advocating this exact same position in Mafia 74 where you were mafia. Please provide me with a game where you have done this as town.Xyl wrote: I am a big believer in lynching anti-town players. Not only are they likely to be scum, but getting rid of them also helps the town directly.
I assume you want a game where I canproveit. Unfortunately, I've only completed one forum game (Newbie 509), and I was scum there.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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So you are saying that you don't have a read on anyone until you analyze them, and when you analyze them you almost always find them scummy? That's a very convenient playstyle, especially when you're scum.vollkan wrote:That's not the way I play this game Xyl. I don't state alignments without having pbped. I play neutral until guilty or innocent and (you can meta me on this) I will only very rarely have anyone even slightly in the "innocent" classification.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
Vollkan is absolutely 100%nottrying to seperate scum from town in this game. He needs more votes.
(Hint: We have two mostly-cleared players. Both of them came up at least 50% scum in his list above.)#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
Hasdgfas being scum would require him to have correctly predicted that the mod would correct the night action results. That isBookitty wrote:I know the answer to this one too! (Though I disagree on the other one, Xyl. I think it's 60/40, not more.)incrediblyunlikely.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006
Why would he ask? From a scum POV the obvious explaination for a missing kill is a doc or bulletproof, not mod error.Bookitty wrote:Hmmm, I was figuring Hasdgfas had ASKED the mod to correct the night action results, which would provide the same result and which seems a reasonable thing for someone to ask.#mafia@irc.globalgamers.net
"Xyl was completely berserk" -dramonic
"Xyl's ruthless policy lynching won the game." -Vi-
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Xylthixlm !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- !xmafia win
- Posts: 5414
- Joined: July 12, 2006