Mafia 76: Desperate - Game over!

[armlx]

So far read D1 (yeah yeah behind schedule and what not). Most suspicious for Matt_S and Goat's being on the obviously newb town wagon before claim (especially Matt_S b/c he did it without a vote). Doubt both are mafia.

[armlx]

Noah...answer me one thing.

What sort of "proof" are you seeking that would make it "acceptable" to vote you? You state thaqt nobody has "proof" against you.

There isn't PROOF against anyone. This is a game where voting is generally done through suspicion for the first few days.

Through your logic, there's no justification for voting for ANYONE, because there isn't proof on anyone.

Interesting stuff on Goat. Sounds like bad wagon pushing, also wary of his vote on Matt Henson later D2. Sounds like sparking the wagon. I also don't like his unvote right after Matt contributes either, then just FOS's him again. His vote then hops again and again. Then votes kilroy.

Kilroy is prob town, just not being the best at it. Lots of flaming and what not on obv lynch targets indicates he's doing only cursory reading.

Pretty sure this is pro-town SL as well.

Sudden mind connection between Korts & Kilroy? DO NOT LIKE.

That whole thing was interesting. Not sure if it meant anything, it just was.

Matt_S has a habit of FOSing onto wagons.

21 pages in, just posting to keep my notes in thread.

[armlx]

No, your happily ever after plan is dumb. We are in a good spot to just win.

Vote The Goat

Matt_S was my other main suspect, and he's not RB/SK so....

[armlx]

Noah...answer me one thing.

What sort of "proof" are you seeking that would make it "acceptable" to vote you? You state thaqt nobody has "proof" against you.

There isn't PROOF against anyone. This is a game where voting is generally done through suspicion for the first few days.

Through your logic, there's no justification for voting for ANYONE, because there isn't proof on anyone.

Interesting stuff on Goat. Sounds like bad wagon pushing, also wary of his vote on Matt Henson later D2. Sounds like sparking the wagon. I also don't like his unvote right after Matt contributes either, then just FOS's him again. His vote then hops again and again. Then votes kilroy.

I did, thank you for confirming my cursory reading comment.

[armlx]

Also, as for the happily ever after thing, the one time it occurred was a scenario where it was -EV for the town to lynch and for the mafia to kill, so the game stalemated until they reached that point. This game will not do that simply based on numbers.

[armlx]

TEN, read thread plz. I claimed one shot vig and am confirmed via kill MO's. Nice one.

Other problems with said plan:

The aforementioned town turning on claimed scum scenario.

The fact you are basically saying the players should abandon an active game.

[armlx]

[quote="Matt_S"
And sorry armlx, I'm not scum here.[/quote]

Posts like this mean stone nothing.

[armlx]

Eh. It was worth a shot.

I still have yet to hear anything from armlx that convinces me he's Town, or that The Goat is scum.

You really have no clue whats going on do you. Let me explain.

N3, KortS died. He was mafia.

1) The kill was clearly not mafia as it killed a mafia.

2) The stabbing kill is clearly not mafia as it killed a mafia.

3) The stabbing kill is A) very typical SK MO across the site and B) every night and B2) no vig has claimed, so it must be an SK.

4) My kill occurred on the same night as the stabbing kill, therefore I am not the SK.

5) If I am not the SK or Mafia, and I claimed 1 shot vig, in the absence of any other town vig claim, I am 99% likely to be pro-town.

[armlx]

The he's in your sentence is formed of the word "he is". When you use a pronoun in a sentence, it is generally assumed to be referencing the most recent applicable subject, in this case "Armlx".

Fail.

[armlx]

Why would you care what I said to prove my pro-towness when the mod has processed night actions that prove it for me?

[armlx]

Meh, this probably isn't going to go the direction I was planning it to as we are both confirmed power roles and no one is going to jump on either side of the argument with a vote. Focusing on the list posted last page is much more productive.

[armlx]

Some interesting issues:

1) We have to figure if we are at 6/2/1 or 7/1/1. Tar being a mafia traitor makes him worth only about .5-.75 mafia members, so a 6 man group isn't outside consideration, though with only 5 power roles 7/1/1 is most likely.

2) We may have to nullify any possible suspicions connecting people to Tarhalindur based on the other person's actions, as often the mafia is not informed of who the traitor is. However, Tar -> other people is still valid. (for reference the wiki.

[armlx]

Actually, RB + kill is VERY common. See all the newbie games. Though things might be different for large games. 6/2/1 is safer to assume though. Basically means we want to lynch the SK today to go to 5/2, which is better than lynching mafia and potentially being at 4/1/1 or town and potentially being at 3/1/1.

[armlx]

Your summary of the events is astute. "We shouldn't lynch Town. That would be bad."

Just threw that in there. The real issue is whether lynching mafia or SK is better for us right now.

[armlx]

Confirmed Innocent
Peers
Kilroy

Not the SK/Mafia Roleblocker
Matt_S
Cream147

Who knows?
Skitzer
andersonw
The Goat
The Eternal Newb (MARK 2)
killa seven (MARK 2)
springlullaby

Again, list for discussion reasons.

Matt_S is less likely if Mafia RB can't RB and kill at same time. I think we can cross him out. Cream is only viable for 1/3 scum slots max, so he can be crossed out for today.

Pretty sure SL is acting town like I said.

I'm going to have to compare tEN 1 to tEN 2. And actually, it does work that way. There's a distinct difference between SK and mafia play usually.

[armlx]

They are far less likely to be anti-town as 2/3 of the potential anti-town roles, possibly all of them if we assume a 5 man mafia, are eliminated from the roles they could be by tracking results.

[armlx]

I can agree with Matt_S here. There's a definite difference in his D1 play as townie compare to his current play. Less worried, more forceful.

Unvote, Vote tEN

[armlx]

Too quickly? You mean you think its scum fueled? Oh wait, its 2 confirmeds and a 2/3rds confirmed.

[armlx]

Unvote, FOS that may as well be a vote on TEN

Just making sure no one hammers before we are done discussing.

[armlx]

Who else might be scum, etc before 2 more people show up dead on top of tEN and can no longer participate.

[armlx]

Yeah, continuing trying to unconfirm me and then posting that I'm a good NK target. Def scum

[armlx]

I meant one confirmed person followed immediately by two people who are very vocal in saying that they're confirmed while not really being confirmed.

Nice try. I've never claimed that I was confirmed. You're just trying to throw mud on us.

What he said.

[armlx]

Yeah, that looks like everyone.

Order of suspicion:

tEN
Goat
K7
Cream/Matt_S/TSN (tied, TSN should be lynched first though if the choice presents itself of 2 of these with room to lynch another)
SL

Vote tEN

Moving along.

[armlx]

I wish I could come into every game, make five posts, and have everyone be like, "whelp, he's obv town."

No, you don't as then the opposite would be true as well.

[armlx]

Well, ideally, it would also work when I'm scum.

Sorry, but Magical Christmas Land and Santa Claus do not exist.

[armlx]

So the SK knows what he is doing, not sure how much that changes the list of suspects though.

[armlx]

Goat or TSN is probably SK.

I endorse a K7 lynch right now.

[armlx]

Process of elim more or less. I think SL is town based on play, you are process of elimed from our, I'm confirmed town, Goat is prob SK. Really, its one of K7 or TSN. I just said K7 arbitrarily of the 2, but in retrospect TSN is prob better as he was on the mislynch yesterday and ran the old "Oh wait, that was L-1?"

[armlx]

More worried about a potentially 2 man mafia then an SK at this point.

[armlx]

Matt_S my current lay out is

SK:
Goat

Mafia (2/3 max):
Matt_S
K7
TSN

You are obviously last on the short list for the lack of track.

[armlx]

Meh, could be TSN as well. All I know is you are the 2 players who I trust would get it and go after the mafiates over the confirmed town in this scenario.

Oh, yeah, BTW that was my K7 over TSN reason: TSN could still be SK.

[armlx]

Valid consideration once the Mafia RB dies.

[armlx]

Is said game completed? If the answer to that is no, then the answer to your question is no.

[armlx]

The reason we don't lynch the SK today is if it is a 2 man mafia we lose (3/2/1 -> 3/2 going into night).

And cross kills are our play for tonight.

[armlx]

SK can't RB as far as we know K7.

[armlx]

I'm just not seeing it from K7 at this point. Leaning TSN now.

[armlx]

I'm just not seeing it from K7 at this point. Leaning TSN now.

See, it sounds to me like killa's the roleblocker who's trying to avoid getting lynched, but that's just my paranoia probably.

the same could be said of you as being the goon trying to stay alive.

True, but that'd be selfish.

How so?

[armlx]

I'm just not seeing it from K7 at this point. Leaning TSN now.

See, it sounds to me like killa's the roleblocker who's trying to avoid getting lynched, but that's just my paranoia probably.

the same could be said of you as being the goon trying to stay alive.

True, but that'd be selfish.

How so?

If I was the goon, I'd want the roleblocker to stay alive, not save myself.

If you were the goon, its irrel as we aren't trying to lynch you. Hardly selfish.

[armlx]

That was my point.

[armlx]

Waiting on SL's anti-TSN case.

[armlx]

Thats kinda.... awkward to say the least. That probably violates the no ongoing game talk rule, but on his part, not yours in any way.

I'll buy it though.

[armlx]

And the dates do cross reference. R-1000 started 3 days after this.

[armlx]

I was leaning killa seven anyways. He could be lying though, as he can't really say "I'm scum in one of my ongoing games". Saying "This is my first scum game" is a good cover story when all of one's completed games are as town.

I can see someone newish to the site legitimately making that mistake.

[armlx]

Hmm, I'm starting to rethink the Goat must be SK thing. I think SL is much more likely now.

[armlx]

The unneeded reassertion of your claim is noted.

[armlx]

springlullaby - me, town

Nice list besides that.

[armlx]

I have an idea. Serial killer, claim so we don't lynch you.

O I C WUT U DID THERE.

I would vote for Goat now under non-lylo circumstances.

[armlx]

So, all these scenarios sound the same

SL = SK
Matt_S = mafiate
K7/Goat = RB

I'm trying to figure the penalty for a mislynch here. I think its that we end up at 2-1-1 in mafia's favor, which is no one wins at best.

[armlx]

Vote Goat

Final Answer.

[armlx]

I oppose this wagon.

You are the goon, you would.

[armlx]

Listen, either you are a goon opposing the lynch of a RB, or you aren't a goon and I trust my opinion of Goat very strongly now AND there prob isnt a goon and we have breathing room.

[armlx]

Not at this point in time. Waiting on others to come back and say stuff.

Actually, as we are waiting at L-1 I'll

Unvote, Pseudovote Goat

to be safe.

[armlx]

Hmm, the more I look at it the less a mafia goon makes sense. That makes this safe.

Vote Goat

[armlx]

Goat, kill + block seems standard enough.

Also, Goon + RB = town loses off SK lynch.

3/2/1 -> 3/2 going into night....

I think Awkwardo would have something to say about that.

[armlx]

SK has incentive to favor the town as they town A) can doubt and mislynch each other, the mafia can not and B) the town don't have an RB and C) the town don't have a night kill.

Also, you not being dead can be explained by SL being mafia (doubt it) or you being scum (don't doubt it). Also TSN and myself are cleared, so 3-2 = 1. 1 < 2. Can't be both mafia on you.

[armlx]

Goat, this is why a Matt_S you scum group is so easy to see right now.

[armlx]

Goat, this is why a Matt_S you scum group is so easy to see right now.

So I'm supposed to be scum with him because I think he's the serial killer?

You are supposed to be scum with him b/c you think he's not a good lynch when the choice is him or K7.

[armlx]

Unvote

Ok.

[armlx]

Its beyond metagame, into the territory of andersonw should have been mod killed in the other game for saying what he did.

[armlx]

So they set this up 3 months ago with the intent of this scenario coming up?

Sounds like trying to cause paranoia.

[armlx]

Goat has also done NOTHING to make me think he is an SK during the course of this wagon, and that was more or less his out.

Vote The Goat

.

Moving along.

[armlx]

Unvote

I don't know if I believe you, but I'll consider it.

[armlx]

Meh, you did exactly what I would do in this situation.

K7 also threw the first vote.

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt here.

Vote K7

[armlx]

Do not answer Goat.

[armlx]

Again, Mafia RB is one of you two, so saying he kills you tonight is dumb.

You also have more or less claimed not SK.

[armlx]

Also, TSN, do not hammer, I want SL to comment.

[armlx]

Straight up SK is a rough role to play. I tend to over compensate for this when I design SKs, usually resulting in them being very, very strong.

[armlx]

Hmm, thats a legitimate point Matt_S. Again, I'm coming back to no goon.

K7 needs to die though. That last post.... wow.

[armlx]

Umm, what?

[armlx]

Yeah, asking who he thinks is scum to see if your buddy is safe.

This is in fact correct IMO.

[armlx]

Needs more dead K7. Sounds like a mix up between scum talk and in thread.

[armlx]

spl is the rb

Well, this confirms you as RB. Though to be fair the rest of this game is out of the town's hands for now.

[armlx]

Needs more dead K7. Sounds like a mix up between scum talk and in thread.

That's what I was thinking, but it doesn't necessarily mean he's the roleblocker. I really doubt springlullaby is the roleblocker though.

Wait a tic, the traitor can't talk with the rest of the mafia, can he? Killa seven-scum confuses me.

Usually no. Mafia usually has no clue who the traitor is.

[armlx]

No, no lynching is not correct. Town's best chance is lynching a mafia member at this point, especially as we have it narrowed down to 3 people being possible mafia and of those 2 are mafia.

[armlx]

Its not that huge IMO. The only person I really expected to counter claim hasn't and has made it clear they don't plan to.

So please unvote No lynch. We aren't going to lynch the SK or town today. Its a matter of goon or RB atm.

[armlx]

So, you are saying we are right to lynch K7, but we shouldn't?

If we NL, odds are there is no SK kill b/c of the RB and we are just down a non-mafiate, most likely me or you. The mafia are the biggest threat, and NL doesn't increase our odds of lynching one.

[armlx]

well let me point this out, wizardcats only post was a random vote, superfly didnt replace the role untill day 2. do you think wizard cat never posted but sent in a roleblock? wc has been here since 2006. i dont see it happenin.

Actually, if she never posted the mafia could probably send in her action for her.

[armlx]

Bah. Gogo town.

[armlx]

How could there be a tie if SL could RB and kill at the same time?

Good job though Goat. And town for not NLing.