Mafia 64: The New "C9" - Game over!

[BillyTwilight]

Hey, guys, sorry for the late start, I was out of town this weekend.

Vote: BattleMage

. Something about post #16 bothers me. It sorta says "I

can't

be scum, I just got into the game right now!" which I think is pretty preemptive. His attack of Guardian for joking on page 2 could just be bad BM play. But all in all, it's enough to warrant a vote, for now.

[BillyTwilight]

Unvote

. Yogurt, the post combination of #'s 85 and 99 makes my hair stand on end. Since the only thing that BM did between those two posts was vote for you and continue his feud with TCS, can you please tell me how he became "protown" in that time frame? And why the IGMEOY for Jack?

[BillyTwilight]

I still think Yogurt Bear looks bad, maybe worst. Albert is awfully bandwagony, but this whole game has been bandwagonny, as well. MBL, what is it exactly about Guardian that you don't like? His original joking around with Glork?

Jack, I think you

are

straw-manning Glork's reasons for voting Albert. First of all, it's not the main point of his argument, more like an addendum. Secondly, his original statement said night kill speculation is "rarely, if ever, useful"; maybe this

could

be one of those rare times that it is useful. Finally, and what makes the second point above inconsequential, Glork NEVER DID what you are saying. Glork's original point was that the town sitting around talking about a Night 0 kill is usually fruitless; what Glork did was find an interesting point in another players speculation of the night kill. He was doing what town is supposed to do; look at peoples posts and their reaction to events and see if they can deduce alignment from those posts. His point was based on what another player SAID, not on his own speculation on who he thinks would kill SV or JDodge. I see these as two entirely different tactics, with the former being constructive and the latter being less so.

[BillyTwilight]

Mostly he joked around with Glork for a couple of pages, after that he doesn't like BM and thinks YB is noob town. I don't really see anything convincing or unconvincing about that. I am more suspicious of YB than he is and less suspicious of BM than he is, but not following the same scum trails that he sees doesn't make him scum. He's a Grey Man to me; I certainly wouldn't state that "Guardian plus X are both scum, I am content with catching 2 on day 1."

What exactly do you mean by parroting two players?

[BillyTwilight]

Hey guys, sorry I've been really inactive so far in this game. I've been really busy at work - for those of you who are thinking about it, grad school really sucks and I wish it on none of you. I will get a reread in and post hopefully by Wednesday, I have a presentation tomorrow I have been working on and just no time to give the game the attention it deserves until then.

[BillyTwilight]

I hate lurker hunting. AE, that puts you one down in my book, real fast.

Posting in this game has gotten out of control. Every time I sit down and try to re-read and get back into the game, I find at least 2-3 more pages than the last time I read the thread. There have been 12 pages and 300+ posts since Wednesday. Yesterday was outrageous, especially since I consider most of it to be crap and arguments that are just as likely to be town arguing with town.

Rundown of current topics of discussion, as I see them.

TCS' play: Playing with TCS in the Clue games, and I agree with Jack. It seems that TCS has decided to try and go the "be more scummy" approach to mafia, to build a rep and make it easier to play as scum. Doesn't really help us a lot in this game, but if we all understand that it will be a little easier to decipher his alignment. I don't think he's obvscum as YB seems to believe.

Albert: Albert seems very insecure in his ability to play as town. His follow the leader mentality is not necessarily scummy, but the play is not indicative of him being town either. The way his wagon grows and shrinks on a day-to-day (or minute-to-minute) basis tells me that there are probably scum on his wagon, and they are jumping on and off as they see it come and go. The question is if the scum are jumping on and off a bus or not. With the rapidity of the wagon's going and coming I am beginning to think that maybe it is a bus-job. I'll have to have a much more thorough read to decide who I do or don't like on his wagon now. Also, his "asks for replacement, asks not to be replaced" routine seems contrived to me.

Jack: Actually I agree with almost everything he's said so far, which I figured would not be the case with how we have tended to disagree in Clue. He's the only player I see who really seems to think YB is scum. Since YB is scummiest in my book, I am finding myself agreeing with Jack more and more.

YB: Doing nothing for me. Just not getting the "noob town" vibe from him that other players have picked up. His PBPA is sketchy at best, and Jack caught him in a lot of flipping around on it. I don't like how he has been posting a lot of... fluff, I guess. It's not that he doesn't post content, but its in such a way that it seems to me to prolong and increase arguments. For example, I find his post from yesterday to be sort of egging on the arguments that boiled over yesterday.

Glork: Might be the only time I have seen him almost go off the deep end. It's actually kind of funny, but I am not picking up the scummy vibe that a lot of players seem to be picking up here, more just a feel of frustration.

AE: You've posted like crazy since you came in. I've not seen anything in your posts that I don't like, really, but fyi, lurker hunting makes me angry. Let the mod handle it, ask for a prod, etc, but lurker hunting sucks, and it's something that scum love to do.

Shteven: Seems town to me; Glork, what about about him do you really not like? He stayed on the Albert wagon for a long time, which to me seems more town because he didn't jump off when the wagon went away.

Guardian: Not getting a great read on Guardian. He's been kinda squeamish since way back with his original argument with BM about Glork's scum-hunting prowess. I don't like his post #630. The SK mention is forced, and kinda reminds me of the tell where a role reveals himself, eg a doc congratulating the doc for a successful protection.

Speaking of roles, I didn't like the talk several pages back about cops and masons and various other power roles, I think conducted by beanbagboy and yogurt. I am going to have to go back and reread to refresh myself on who exactly partook in that conversation and why they were talking about it.

None of the other players are really on the radar enough for me to comment on before I get a better re-read. Didn't understand MoS's talk about MBL lurking at all. Also don't agree with MBL that your vote should always be on someone in Day 1, as evidenced by the fact that I am not voting now.

I'll try and get a better re-read done tomorrow and post more. If school looks like its going to stay as bad as it has been the last month or so (been working about 100-120 hours a week since mid April) I might ask for a replacement. I have time to compose small posts on a day to day basis, but not to sit and read 5 new pages of gameplay and then post.

[BillyTwilight]

Billy: Lurker hunting is a pro-town thing to do. Prods and replacements can help, but when it comes down to it, if a person wants to activly lurk and just occasioanly post in unhelpful ways, the only way to deal with is is votes and pressure. Besides, when possible, it's better to deal with lurkers through votes and pressure anyway; the reaction to someone who comes back from lurking because of a lurkerwagon on him is much more informative then the reaction of someone who comes back from lurking because of a mod prod.

I absolutely and fundamentally disagree. We can talk about it if you really want, but I will never like or approve of lurker hunting, and I consider it a scum tactic.

[BillyTwilight]

You will never, ever convince me that scum are more likely to lurk than town. If that is the case then lurker hunting is a bad scum hunting tactic.

There are mainly two reasons that people lurk:
1.) They get bored with the game. It's just as likely that this occurs as often with vanilla townie as it does with scum. In fact, I'd argue that its less likely for scum to lurk for this reason, as typically players are more excited and "into" a game when they are scum.

2.) RL issues cause problems with ability to post. Not any more likely to happen for scum than anyone else.

Yos, I agree, lurking can allow scum to hide. However, a town that permits lurker hunting allows

active

scum to attack players without discretion. In fact, a town that participates in lurker hunting effectively picks the scum's target for them and makes their job easier.

AE and YoS, I think your real problem against lurking is that it makes the game boring and slow for you, and your right in that. But lurking IS NOT a scumtell.

As far as the timing of my post, you can read into it what you want; I've been composing that post since Friday because I don't like thread spamming with 5 or 6 back to back posts while doing a reread, the whole while voting and unvoting, etc. When I sat down last night to finish the post, AE's post was the last one. As far as YoS's argument that my distaste for lurker hunting is something I came up in response to AE's vote then read the first day of Freaktown 4. There was a large discussion about lurker hunting and pretty much all of the points I made are more detailed in that game. I was scum in that game and as soon as my partner started lurker hunting I tried to get him lynched. I hate lurker hunting.

AE, I know that lurking was only a part of why you voted me. The other part is because... MoS said something about me, then when asked about it YB answered for him? Don't see how I can defend myself against that, so I largely ignored your vote of me. Also, I don't necessarily see lurker hunting as a scumtell. Town is just as likely to participate as scum. I do see it as bad play.

BTW, part of the reason I think YB is scum is because of his forced sounding ask for a lurker hunt against N9V.

[BillyTwilight]

You forgot one:

3) Sometimes scum lurk, because the only thing scum really care about during the day is to not get lynched, and a person who's not really saying anything isn't giving off scumtells. If the town's not willing to lynch lurkers, then lurking is a smart move for the scum to do.

Every game I have ever played in here has had a person pointed out as being a lurker. If any scum is worth his salt, he (she) will do everything to avoid anything that might make him look suspicious, including lurking. I am not saying that scum never lurk; I am saying that more often than not town lurks worse. By your thought process, the two roles most likely to lurk are scum and town-power, to try and "stay under the radar". If that's the case then lurker hunting can hurt the town terribly even with your thought process about the theory of the game.

Any good town has to do both, both go after lurkers and go after active players who look scummy. It's not an either-or choice; they both need to be done.

No, they don't both need to be done. See below. Also, especially for players with a lurker-hunter tag (like MeMe and yourself - kinda knew that we'd get into an argument about this from the first time I saw your sig), players can lurker hunt

as scum

without appearing scummy. For example, if you start voting lurkers and someone says, "that's scummy and opportunistic," and you say, "well, thats how I play, see my sig," you have a rep built on that and can't be looked at as scummy because of it. It gives you a free ride, not only in the game you are currently in, but in any game where town allows a lurker hunt. So the second part of your above statement is incorrect. If town allows lurker hunting, then by definition lurker hunting can't be scummy in that game, and scum can use a useful tactic with impunity.

That's only a small part of it. Lurking lowers the town's chances of winning, no matter if the lurking player is pro-town or scum, and I still do think that lurking is at least a minor scumtell; sure, anyone could lurk for whatever reason, but from a stratigic point of view there's always more reason for scum to lurk then for town to lurk, so if someone's lurking, and especally if they seem to be activly and intentionally lurking, I consider them more likely to be scum then someone's who's being active, and so all else being equal, I'm always more likely to vote for someone who is, was, or has been lurking.

And in any case, if pro-town people lurk, or semi-lurk, they tend to either not vote much at all, or if they do vote, they tend to just follow the crowd; either way, every pro-town lurker makes it that much easier for scum to control the game. So either way, lurking is bad for the town and the town can never afford to allow it.

Here I completely agree and want to make sure you understand where I am coming from. I think lurker hunting is bad. I think lurking is also very, very bad, for all of the reasons you mentioned. IMO, the correct way to handle a lurker is to "force" the mod to make them post or replace them. This

will

make the lurker post or be replaced, and it avoids distracting the town and allowing active scum to find and attack easy targets.

Let me clarify something; everything I feel about lurking and lurker hunting is

in the absence of any other evidence against the lurker

. If someone is obviously intentionally lurking then the town should take action. For instance, if a player only posts once or twice after a mod prods them, doesn't post for a couple weeks, gets another prod and posts a little more, they are obviously trying to stay in the game and lurk. Or if a player is in a lot of trouble, with a lot of votes, etc. and the player decides to drop into the background and let pressure moves somewhere else before posting again, town needs not to let that happen.

The point is that in the absence of other information, lurker hunting is distracting and more often than not targets protown players. If this isn't bad enough, it also allows active scum to appear more town and participate in the lurker hunt without raising suspicion. For example, imagine that TCS is scum (he might be, I haven't yet got a great read on him). With an active lurker hunt (which this game has thankfully not turned into yet), TCS' post #656 (well, the last half of it that actually pertains to the current discussion) could fly totally under the radar. Town is hunting lurkers, TCS votes a lurker, TCS must therefore be town. He doesn't have to answer the obvious questions that typically follow someone placing a vote. Like, "TCS, what is the obvious reason for voting BT?"

Is it that BT was lurking, or that BT doesn't like lurker hunting, or that someone else answered a question about BT when the original question was asked of a third party? Or a combo of the three? Or something else entirely. Or did you even have any reason, other than seeing what might turn into a nice wagon that could lead to a lynch?

[BillyTwilight]

I couldn't disagree more with Billy's arguments about lurkers.

1) Lurkers aren't fun to play with. You play to examine the interactions between personalities, not so you can try to ascertain what's inside Generic_Cardboard_Box_01. So it's pro-fun to berate them.

This says nothing about the merits of lurker-hunting as a scum catching technique.

2) Why on earth assume town can't both poke at lurkers AND comment on active players? Why assume your fellow townies can't discern between a pure lurker-hunter and one who does both? Lurker-hunting is only scummy in the absence of other critical analysis, and it's easy to nail people who solely lurker-hunt as scummy.

It's not a matter of the discernment of the town. You can look at the total actions of each player, of course. But good scum is going to be hard to read, and giving them another tool to help with a mislynch can be disastrous for town.

3) It's not the mod's job to lurker-hunt. A player who posts once a week shouldn't be replaced, their fellow town should do the work to get them posting more.
4) Just because lurkers are town doesn't mean they're not a threat to town. I can't tell you how many times I've coasted to victory as scum on the backs of lurking town. Getting those people to talk is invariably a good thing for town.

Points 3 and 4 aren't an argument for lurker hunting. They are an argument for getting lurkers to post. You think it's the town's job. I think it's the mod's job. I think the mod can do it with better results and less opportunity for active scum to pigtail an innocent townie's mislynch.

5) We still have to catch the scum who aren't worth their salt...

And how exactly are you going to distinguish between town that's not worth its salt and scum that's not worth its salt?

If anyone can give me a good reason why scum are

more likely

to lurk than any other role, then I will concede that lurker hunting is good. Otherwise, find another way to get people to post.

[BillyTwilight]

With less sarcasm, though, just because getting lurkers to participate helps the town doesn't make it a protown action. Lurker hunting is one of those actions that scum use to look protown without having to hurt their chances of winning too much.

Yes, sometimes scum do pro-town actions like lurker hunting to make themselves look pro-town.

That dosn't make lurker hunting any less of a pro-town action, and it means that attacking someone just because they're lurker hunting, the way both Billy and Andrew are doing, is incredibly counter-productive.

And every time Billy or Andrew try to tell people that lurekr hunting is bad, lurking becomes something people are that much more likely to do.

Emphasis mine. What makes lurker hunting less of a pro town action is that lurking ISN'T A SCUMTELL. I kind of take offense to the way you word this as well. I didn't attack anyone for lurker hunting. I pointed out that AE was doing it and put her down a point in my book because I don't like lurker hunting and think its a scum tactic, but I never called her scum for it, mostly because I realize that misguided town will lurker hunt as well as scum. I never attacked you over it either. In fact, I didn't really want to get into this discussion anyway because it's more distraction than anything, thus my post #651, where I said we could talk about if if you really wanted to, but I wasn't going to push the issue at the time. Plus, I don't feel that this conversation encourages lurking. On your side, your willing to throw a few votes on a lurker. On my side, I'm willing to have the mod replace or otherwise deal with them. I don't think either of those threats "encourages" lurking.

AE, I am particularly attracted to the game theory side of mafia, and enjoy thinking about it and discussing it. As such I have given this topic a lot of thought and consideration over the past 4 months or so. I have a lot of things to talk about without having to spend 2 hours reading the thread to make a post. It just seems like I put more energy into this discussion than in the game; truth be told it's a lot less difficult than re-reading and posting character analysis for me.

[BillyTwilight]

AE, I am answering other people's questions and commenting on other people's posts. Don't paint this as me hijacking the thread. I didn't launch into this discussion until you and Yos attacked me in post #s 652 and 653.

And I agree with you, this is not a real contribution to this game, which is why I didn't get into full tirade mode till about post #663 - I didn't really want to head down this road.

As for the "flurry of activity I've had since you voted me", this has been my first day off since the game started. Whither or not you had voted for me, today was going to be my first active day in the game. I have to keep up with the other games that I am in as well.

Regardless, I have pretty much said everything I am going to say on the subject in this thread. I'll try to get a full-reread and post some actual game related content this evening, probably after the bball game.

[BillyTwilight]

AE: You've posted like crazy since you came in. I've not seen anything in your posts that I don't like, really, but fyi, lurker hunting makes me angry. Let the mod handle it, ask for a prod, etc, but lurker hunting sucks, and it's something that scum love to do.

I don't see any FoS, Vote, or other bold lettering here. I told you you were a point down in my book, but it obviously wasn't even enough to warrant a strong look at you, then. So no, I didn't attack you for lurker hunting, just let you know that I am not fond of the tactic. However, when you made that post (#653) I had to defend my position.

Lurker hunting absolutely IS a scum tactic, even Yos has admitted that. It is a very good scum tactic because it is extremely difficult to distinguish town-lurkerhunting from scum-lurkerhunting. Thats what makes a scum tactic good. And since I don't see town-lurkerhunting as beneficial I feel you are giving scum a powerful tactic for basically no payoff.

Yos just because you say lurking is a scumtell doesn't make it so. In fact, if lurking is so universally accepted here as a scumtell as you people seem to believe, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that almost no lurkers in the current games right now are scum, or that there is a lot less scum than town lurking as a general rule of thumb. Scum

typically

try to avoid what most people consider a scumtell.

Anyway, that's it. If you guys want to argue about this more I will after the game is over, but I've said my peace.

[BillyTwilight]

Well, I gave a quick re-read, but its too many pages for me to take notes on every player. Still finding YB to be scummiest. Particularly posts #246 and #261 jump out at me. I also don't like the conversation that he had with Albert after Albert claimed vanilla, and his attack on Jack for posting short posts. Especially the conversation with Jack seems like he's trying to build a case out of nothing. As stated before, he asked for a lurker hunt against N9V; but then he refused to vote for it. Not sure what that means, I think he was trying not to seem opportunistic. At the time the Guardian wagon was beginning to get into full swing, and it was commented that YB might have brought it up to distract away from the Guardian wagon. There has definitely been a lot of weird subtext between Guardian and YB throughout the game.

When I read some of Shteven's posts out of context I didn't see what Glork was talking about, but in context some of his posts seems scummier to me, especially post #262. It's very coachy to Albert, but in a way it seems to be trying to tell any newer players that if you get wagoned and feel the need to claim, it's just better to calmly go down rather than fight. In the context of how he posted it, I find it quite scummy.

I think Glork's typo is a null-tell, but I am intrigued as to why he felt the need to defend himself about it at all.

I don't see Yos' case against Glork, and I don't like the way he is defending BM. I don't see anything in Battle Mage's play that is particularly better play than normal from him. I think BM is town, but Yos has gone on more to try and paint BM as being really good town in this game, which I find kind of odd.

AE looks to be trying to build a case against as many people as she can, and a lot of them on floppy reasons. I don't like her post #755 against Yos. She did the same kind of thing to me, basically accused me (and now Yos) of thread spamming and not posting "game-related content". PSST.... AE, when you post in response to others posts and have a conversation in the game, then it's game related content. Come back with thread spamming if we get in a discussion about horse racing or hockey.

BTW, will you please quantify you case against me? I'd like to know why you want me lynched. If it's because we disagree about a game theory issue then you really need to rethink your strategy for playing mafia.

TCS is looking pretty scummy to me now as well. He was quick to move his vote to me when he might have perceived that an argument with Yos could lead to my lynch. When I called him on it he quickly jumped off without ever quantifying his case against me. In post #702 he infers that his vote for me was because I turned the thread into a "policy discussion", which I don't buy at all, considering he never said anything about not liking a "policy discussion" before and he never looked twice at Yos, who was just as involved in that discussion as I was. Top that off with more of his recent posts and his flip-flopping on whither he is acting scummy on purpose or not puts him just beneath YB on my list.

Vote: YB, FoS: TCS

[BillyTwilight]

Well let's see. As I said when I cast my vote in post 646:
(1)MoS called you pro-town, which I found baffling, as you'd done next to nothing. So I asked him how he reached that conclusion.

Not sure exactly how this pertains to me. BTW, MoS wasn't the only person who had a protown read on my posts, Glork did as well and I think some other players.

(2) Yogurt chose to jump in and answer for MoS.

Yogurt has done this many times throughout the game, most recently he answered a question for Guardian in post #747.

(3) When I pointed that out, HungryJoe resorted to personal attacks on me.

Again, not sure how this pertains to me.

(4) I glanced at my notes and noticed a previous Yogurt/Billy/Hungry interaction that I'd found scummy (posts 99, 106, 107).

What interaction was there? YB had become scummy to me by that time in the game. I found his post #99 to be particularly bad, and I asked him about it. At the time YB had jumped to vote BM for very little reason, and when BM voted YB, YB backed off very quickly with a statement that I saw little basis for ("BM looks pro-town to me"). Then he eyed Jack for reasons I couldn't understand. HJ's post has almost nothing to do with that conversation, besides asking for YB to elaborate more on his actions. Otherwise his post is almost entirely about BM. I don't see the scuminess or even a legitamate connection in those posts, other than the fact they were near each other in time and so were discussing issues current in the game.

(5) I'd also been suspicious of Yogurt and Hungry for other reasons.

Why do you want me lynched for that again?

(6) Since you had very few posts and had promised a post but not delivered and hadn't posted in nearly a week, I voted you.

I did not mention...
(7) Voting you seemed best of the three since you'd recieved the least attention thus your reaction would be the most illuminating.

And as added in post 653:
(- 8 -) You admit that you'd been reading the thread but not posting. As soon as I voted you, you posted.

BZZZZZ. Wrong. Never admitted to reading without posting. I said I had sat down and tried to do a read, but every time I did the thread was at least 2-3 pages longer than it had been. In case you missed it, I've been working a ridiculous amount of hours since May. Sitting down and glancing quickly through the thread is not the same as giving it a thorough read and taking time to compose a post. Point is, the first time I sat down to read (even quickly) the entire thread was Friday evening. I just didn't have time to read so much material last week. As far as the posting in response to your vote, think what you will. I had been composing that post since late Friday night, and Saturday was the first day off I had had in weeks.

And as I added in in posts 676 and 684
(9) You didn't post anything except attacking lurker hunting--nothing about suspects, thoughts on players, who might be pro-town, etc. Just that lurker hunting is a scum tactic, which you said lots and lots and lots.

Wrong. Again. In fact a complete lie. My "reentry" post #647 has two statements about lurker hunting. The rest is explicitly thoughts on players and the other things you commented on. In fact, you completely ignored that commentary and went after the fact that I despise lurker-hunting. Again, if you didn't like the argument Yos and I had that's fine, but it was the topic of discussion and was a conversation. If someone makes points that I disagree with or respond to points disagreeing with me, I respond to those posts. It's not solely my fault that conversation headed that way, especially considering you never asked me questions about players or about the thoughts I had in post #647.

You can try to characterize my vote as a disagreement on a game theory issue, but that just makes me think you're trying to downplay the whole thing, especially as this isn't the first time I've clarified my vote on you (see post 653).

You clarified your vote at that time, but you have not elucidated on it since. Since your other reasons for voting me are based on the actions of other players, and tenuous ones at best considering they have both shown this sort of playstyle for the entire game with multiple other players, I find your vote on me to be lackluster. I wanted clarification because you wanted me lynched, which is a stronger statement than merely having a vote on me in Day 1, and I simply don't think you have a case against me.

[BillyTwilight]

Glork,

Can you make a post similar to #699 on how you feel about Shteven? Your obvious desire to lynch him seems a little unfounded to me right now. For a while you were seriously hitting Guardian, but then you seemed to talk yourself out of a vote for Guardian with your analysis post #699, and quickly defaulted back to a Shteven vote. I looked quickly through all of your posts (out of context) and didn't see any real strong case against Shteven there; maybe your basing your actions off things others have said about him that I missed?

I think Shteven has had some scummy posts, but not enough to be an obvious lynch for the day. YB is the best lynch for the day, followed by TCS. After that is a host of people who I find more difficult to read but am getting a scummy vibe from. Guardian, Albert, BM, and Shteven are the latter.

[BillyTwilight]

@Glork:

Your basic argument against Shteven comes down to his vote staying on Albert for a long time without explaining his reasons for the vote, and at the same time constantly stating that his vote would remain on Albert for the "reasons" that he had already given. I agree that this is suspicious, but I can see it coming from lazy town as much as scum. Your second main point is the rest of his analysis has been weak. Again, that could be lazy town.

I've already talked about his post #262, which is by far his scummiest post. He seems to me to be trying to talk Albert into "letting himself go", giving up so to speak. Maybe he thought Albert with a little coaxing would say something that would give the town serious incentive to lynch him, I don't know. I don't really get post #262 at all anyway; he goes back to a topic that didn't need to be readdressed IMO, and he then addresses that topic in a scummy way, to me.

I am getting a scummy read on Shteven, but not enough for me to change my vote. I still think both YB and TCS are better lynches for today.

Secondly, your post #699 about Guardian to me is a stronger case than the one you bring against Shteven. Both are in my list of scummiest players, but I don't understand why you find Shteven

scummier

than Guardian, and I certainly can't understand your reason for wanting him lynched out of hand, as your post #794 indicates.


@MBL:

I agree pretty much with your player list (so far). I find your question to Albert and YB to be... interesting. I've never used that kind of questioning as a scum-hunting technique before. I wonder (since now it seems neither are going to answer it - don't know how I feel about that) what you would expect the answers to be from a town player or from a scum player. When I first read it, I got a bad vibe from it, because I didn't see a way that the players could answer that without seeming scummy, and thus felt that it could be opportunistic on your part, but I can't really figure out if there is any kind of read here, in the question or in the answers (or lack thereof).


@AE:

I don't like post #839. It seems like you are stretching for a way to contribute to the discussion. Why did you pick those players to ask those questions to and about? When you first entered the game you had a lot to talk about with all of the post previous to your entrance. Since then you have attacked me, but when that didn't get traction with the other players you have kind of dropped out of the picture. Your read on BM is just wrong, and I want to know if you still hold to the fact that he is town, as post #792 indicates. Do you simply not believe LML's clarification post #762? I don't know if you realize this, but when you PM someone on the boards, the PM stays in your outbox until they read it, then it gets moved to your sentbox. If LML says that TSQ didn't read the PM, that means he deleted it out of his outbox before TSQ picked it up, and thus he knows that TSQ did not read the PM and has no idea what BM's alignment is. This means that your reasoning for clearing BM is wrong.

I will make an analysis post about YB sometime this evening or tomorrow, if I get time.

[BillyTwilight]

Why YogurtBandit=scum:

Post #'s 78, 79: I don't like the first sentence in post #78. It seems to come more from the psychology of scum than town; in a way he states "I wish that BM looked scummy enough to lynch, but he doesn't right now so I am just going to FoS him."

Post #85: Votes BM over really shitty reasoning. He follows TCS bandwagon call and claims that he read BM's "scumtell" and that was reason enough to vote him. First, the scum tell came before YB's post #81, so he had already read that "scumtell" and not seen anything there to vote for, but when TCS voted, YB was quick to follow. This was the 7th vote on BM's early wagon, and unjustified to boot.

Post #99: Unvotes BM because he gets a "pro-town" feel on him, although Battle Mage did nothing between post #'s 85 and 99 that I can see that makes him more protown. However, YB did pick up a few votes in the interim, from Jack, BBB and BM; couple that with several people commenting that BM's wagon looked suspicious makes me feel that YB's distancing from the wagon was scum trying to back off from a town lynch that had soured. He also IGMEOY's Jack in this post, which seems OMGUSy to me.

Post #'s 101, 103: Nothing much here; BBB does point out that Yogurt's post #99 has a weird vibe because he attacked Jack for FoSing BBB for voting YB. I think this is evidence of scum not thinking things through. He wanted to go for Jack because of Jack's vote and call for a wagon, but didn't think through exactly what he was doing, just threw the IGMEOY out for no really good reason.

Post #120: He defends himself against my post #106, where I ask for clarification on post #99. His answers are unsatisfactory. Says he doesn't exactly know why he thought BM was protown; reasons that it might be because BM said that he acts scummy as town, etc. Not a satisfactory answer to why he claimed suspicion of Jack as well and criticizes BM for his playstyle. Although the last part seems ok out of context, in the thread he was merely echoing the thoughts of others from that part of the conversation. I find scum do this often, to seem as though they are contributing without saying anything substantial or that hasn't already been covered in thread.

Post #124: He's back on the BM wagon, with an FoS instead of a vote this time. Again the reasons are not great (same old BM acts scummy on purpose but maybe this time he is scum argument). I don't like how he said "I don't feel like voting you now," then FoSes him instead. Seems to me like he learned his lesson from the last time he tested the BM wagon-waters and is more hesitant about throwing down a vote on him.

Post #136: Chastises Albert for not voting his conscience. The first of several posts where YB adopts a preachy posting style. It's very manipulative and soapbox-like, and again contributes nothing to what has already been said in thread. Follows that with an Albert vote, jumping onto the next burgeoning bandwagon available.

Post #138: Chastises Albert for joining bandwagons.

Post #162: Completely useless comment about when a lynch will happen.

Post #165: Answers a question from Jack intended for Glork. He does this several times in the thread, might be a personal scumtell from him. I think he thinks answering questions in game makes him look more town and helpful, even if those questions are for other players and have nothing to do with him.

Post #173: Unvotes, but HoSes Albert and BM. I don't understand why a player has a vote on someone, then out of the blue unvotes them but leaves a large amount of suspicion on them. He gives a terrible reason for this (they keep flip-flopping, so I will unvote them, but I will keep an HoS{? - wtf is the point of an HoS?}, because I hear of their scummy behavior). He then begins questioning HJ. Asks him for anything he sees different or more scummy about BM's play, makes a statement that doesn't even make sense to me about how HJ would only think the way he's thinking because scum would think that way, and another question about asking Glork something about his behaviour that also doesn't make sense to me. I think the most significance in this post is not the content itself, but where it was directed. Glork at the time had attacked HJ for HJ joining the BM wagon, and HJ obviously began to defend himself. Everyone knows Glork's reputation for scum hunting, and whither or not Glork is scum a newb scum is likely to follow where Glork leads. This is the first mention that I can see from YB to HJ, and his timing seems funny to me. I think he saw Glork attacking HJ, and knowing Glork's ability to get people to follow him he jumped in early as well, hoping that a wagon would form against HJ. Otherwise I don't see the point of this post, as the questions for HJ are not well thought out don't really add a lot to that conversation.

Post #246: Clarifies his unvote of Albert, then FoSes Albert (again) while twisting a statement of Albert's way way out of context. He then asks Guardian why Guardian thinks TCS might be scum.

Post #248, 250: Unsatisfactorily defends his twisting of Albert's words.

Post #252: Defends Guardian against Jack, again answering a statement (not really a question) for someone else.

Post #261: Rolefishing, and stupid to boot. Let's not try to out any masons or other power roles on day 1 please.

Post #264: Back on the soapbox. Basically comes down to not liking Jack posting short posts. He defends Guardian again. Claims he's not attacking Jack, but then FnoSes him (btw, I hate these various levels of FoS; not saying they are scummy, but they

are

stupid).

Post #'s 268, 270, 272, 274, 276, 278: Very weird conversation about claiming town (I think about claiming vanilla town). Can't tell if YB was trying to get Albert to slip up or if it was just banter.

Post #'s 282, 286, 288, 292: Extreme soapboxing here. Attacks Jack for his jokey playstyle, takes the game to a role playing extreme, and culminates in a Jack vote - which is strange. He doesn't give a reason for voting Jack; in fact, Jack hasn't really done anything since YB's earlier FnoS (boo!), yet YB votes him. It seems the vote is placed more because Jack refuses to change his play style than anything else. I don't know that this is scummy, but it could be opportunistic, and its definitely trying to be manipulative.

Post #'s 297, 298: Addendum to the conversation about taking the game seriously.

Post #301, 304, 308, 319, 345: Nothing here, except a small attack against BM and more defense of Guardian.

Post #348: Asks TCS why he joined Guardian's bandwagon

Post #349, 353, 355, 357, 360, 367: Begins a particularly suspicious lurker-hunt for N9V. The timing is incredibly strange and out of the blue, and is a distraction from the Guardian wagon that is forming. I find it most suspicious because he doesn't vote for N9V. When people start voting N9V he attacks them for it, and "takes the high road" of asking for a prod. During this part of the game Guardian constantly refers to YB as noob town. All in all a fairly good distraction away from the Guardian wagon that was forming.

Post #381: Back tracks a little on Guardian, and wants Guardian to answer some points that AE made. Although not as bad, this still falls in the answering/commenting on other people's questions.

Post #393: Good vote for TCS.

Post #399: His first "random" pbpa. Target: TCS. Not a lot of content. He accuses TCS of a bandwagon mentality, although he has mostly bandwagoned throughout the game himself. I really don't mind this post too much. It's a little forced and has a strange feel to it, but TCS isn't a very townie player so far in this game, and I don't mind the vote.

Post #402: Defends himself against AE about his early BM votes/FoSes. Basically a repeat of the unsatisfactory answers he gave me in post #120.

Post #405: Attack's Jack for attacking him.

Post #410: "Random" pbpa. Target: MBL. Again mentions masons. A completely ridiculous and unneeded post. Puts a bunch of "HMMMMM"s in there, which means absolutely nothing. This post seems ridiculously scummy to me and makes his post against TCS look bad. It's like he thought, "well, I did one pbpa and I better do another just to make sure people don't think its strange that I did the first one". This is probably one of the scummiest posts in the game, regardless of player.

Post #'s 425, 426, 439, 441: Defends his "random" pbpas. He can't seem to decide if they were just random, or there were specific reasons he picked those players (especially MBL). Its all rather ridiculous and senseless.

Post #447, 448, 450, 452: Begins his silly "Confirm Vote: TCS" campaign. I am torn a little on this, because I do think TCS has been acting scummy. However, rereading YB gives me the impression that YB is jumping on a screw-up by town. All of YB's posts have actually given me a more townie feel about TCS. YB accuses Jack and TCS of "staging" some posts about TCS always acting scummy or somesuch. Also attacks Jack for defending TCS on metagame information.

Post #'s 455, 459, 460: Guardian in post #453 offered up some kind of picking-out-a-movie-randomly explanation for YB's "random" pbpas. YB latched on to that description and again defends his calling those pbpas "random". When Jack questions him on it he kind of brushes it aside; he then continues his attack on Jack because Jack doesn't feel we can read too much into TCS acting scummy.

Post #467, 470, 474, 481: More attacks of TCS. TCS again goes after Guardian, and YB again defends him. Then Guardian tells YB that his (Guardian's) logic is hypocritcal in post #468. This is a very interesting conversation. It seems that Guardian is trying to coach YB away from defending him so much because he feels he is getting in real trouble. However, this all culminated with another Confirm TCS vote from YB.

Post #'s 516, 520: Another confirm vote for TCS (woohoo!). Again points out TCS contradictory play; YB's really latched onto that and trying for the kill, I think.

Post #'s 625, 627: Again answers someone else's question, this time AE's question to Jack about me.

Post #640: Don't like the way he was baiting Albert here.

Post #692: Defends Guardian against Glork, again.

Post #747: Again answers questions for someone else, this time from MBL to Guardian.

Post #754: Confirm Votes TCS.... Again! YAY

Post #'s 823, 827, 838: The answers to MBL's hypothetical question. Not sure how I feel about these posts, mostly because I am not sure how I feel about how "fair" the question is, and if it really accomplishes anything.

---

What I read from all of this. YB has had 127 posts so far this game. The vast majority have been inconsequential, and most aren't listed in the above analysis. This bothers me, because it feels like a player is trying to look very active without at lot of contribution. YB also constantly accuses people of bandwagoning, although (especially very early) he partook of wagons almost exclusively. His early vote/unvote of BM reeks of scum being caught jumping on a wagon with no reason and then backing down and trying to save face. He seemed very quick to follow Glork's lead in going after HJ. His "random" pbpas are forced and he made several attempts to defend them that seem to slightly contradict each other. He's been OMGUSy with Jack and TCS and he became very manipulative and preachy with Jack about his playstyle.

My biggest problem with YB is that he attacks players who are under scrutiny, but his questions and assessments of their play don't often make a lot of sense. He follows other players leads (even his attack against TCS originated with other players pointing out TCS' on-again/off-again scummy behavior).

Then there is the thing with Guardian. Both players have constantly backed each other up; Guardian even seemed at one point to be asking YB to stop defending him because he thought he was in trouble.

FoS: Guardian

.

On a side note, with this pbpa I feel much better about TCS, simply because of the way YB has gone after him. I don't think they are mafia together, and TCS could be a a SK, but coupled with TCS' play in Clue and the style that he seems to be adapting lately, he's lowered on my radar now.

unFoS: TCS

.

Top two candidates for lynch are YB and Guardian.

[BillyTwilight]

I will be out of town from tomorrow till Thursday. I will try to post again on Thursday, but might not make it till Friday. If this is a problem LML then I can be replaced, but I'd much rather remain in the game (that last post was

way

too much work to get replaced now).

[BillyTwilight]

Greetings all, good not to be replaced. Comments on events since I left:

I don't really like post #'s 890 and 896 by Shteven. The first gives me a vibe of "I don't know where this YB wagon will go, but if it becomes necessary for me to jump on it I want to reserve a seat." What I find really interesting about it is that Albert has the same kind of non-committal post in that section and YB attacks Albert for it without saying anything to Shteven. I agree with MBL's post #897 concerning Shteven's post and completely agree with MoS's post #899 and subsequent posts regarding YB's reaction to my analysis and others voting for him.

Guardian's post #901 screams at me. It looks very desperate; they are in it so far together that Guardian has to keep YB from being lynched in order not to follow him shortly thereafter.

YoS's posts look good to me.

Shteven's post #923 is bad, very over-defensive. If Glork had not already brought a full case against Shteven I could see this, but considering Glork has made it very clear that he wants a Shteven lynch his post #898 is just fine, and Shteven's reaction is overboard and not a sign of clear thinking.

I don't like the content of inHim's post #926, but the way its worded makes me feel that its a playstyle post, so to speak. Never played with inHim, so I can't meta him properly. Other's who have played with him, is this typical of his style as town? This goes for his other posts as well.

Don't like YB's post #929, its very reminiscent of his earlier call out against ~N9V~ when Guardian's wagon got rolling.

I like MBL's post #932, but come to a different conclusion about Guardian. MBL, what explicitly about Guardian makes you think SK? I read that and coupled with my suspicion of YB see it as scummy but not SK tells

per se

. As for making a post about Albert as per your request, I might get around to it; the post on YB took nearly 6 hours of on-again/off-again writing while at work, and I don't think I am willing to invest that much time into another analysis right now, but I might try to do a quick one. As for your comments about YB, I've never played with him in scumchat or otherwise, and I can't judge his play on "YB just being YB". That said, I especially don't like comparing scumchat games to forum games as meta information; the two environments are far too different to get accurate reads on a player, imo.

I don't like Shteven's post #937 either; again it feels like he is trying to force a defense for himself against an attack that is very minor, and trying to force suspicion of other players on bad reasoning. I have found Shteven's play to be far scummier since my analysis against YB, and am surprised that Glork hasn't used some of this to reload against Shteven in the past couple of days.

BM has gotten awfully lazy for a player who has been replaced once already and by the grace of the mod was allowed back into the game. It seems that he's been very quiet in this game, after the flurry of posts back when it started. I thought his excuse for not posting for a week or so was because of exams? I think maybe its time we get a prod for him with threat of permanent replacement. Same goes for Pless (or whatever) - actually, Pless just needs a straight up replacement immediately. There are some other players that this applies to as well, but I will have to have a closer look to see who they are.

TCS looks neutral to me now; some of his play earlier was bad, but I am beginning to think that TCS just had a slump of sorts from his play in Clue and here, maybe he got a little bored and careless with the game. Right now I have less suspicion of him than I have all game.

Don't really agree with MoS about Guardian being a bad play for the day. I think situations like this is where meta information can hurt; I feel Guardian's play has definitely been suspicious enough to warrant consideration. Completely agree with AE's post #973.

To sum up:

Haven't seen anything to dissuade me from my current vote on YB, and haven't seen enough of a case against another player to move my vote. Guardian still looks scummy and Shteven has moved much father up on the pS scale. TCS has moved down it. I think meta information is hurting this game. Nearly every player who has been under large suspicion has claimed that "I always seem scummy" and almost everyone here has let some bad play slide because of it. I don't think we should do away with any meta information entirely, but right now it feels like people are letting it have too much influence on their decision-making.

[BillyTwilight]

Shteven, it's not where your suspicions lie, or even why you are suspecting certain players that bothers me, it's the under-currents in the posts that bother me. I think that I pointed that out in my analysis, but I'll be a little more specific now.

@BillyTwilight
post 890 - Indiciated I'd be fine with a YB lynch or the guardian lynch which I left my vote on. Perhaps the indication is something you're supposed to keep to yourself, but I don't mind throwing it out there. It's day 1 and having two targets seems like a pretty narrow list to me. Beats the 4-6 I had mentioned way back around page 6.

I still stick with the bad vibe I got from this post. Looks to me like you aren't ready to vote for YB yet but want to allow yourself that option. Call it gut feeling when I read the post.

post 896 - Showed my distaste for the "I'm always scummy" playstyle. Almost all of albert's post sound scummy to me, and I don't care for it. It's the very same thing you listed in your summary paragraph:

. Nearly every player who has been under large suspicion has claimed that "I always seem scummy" and almost everyone here has let some bad play slide because of it.

I'm trying to call Albert on it, and you consider me the scummy one?

Don't know if this is deliberate or not, but your twisting what I thought was bad about that post. It's the last sentence; the thought process of "let's lynch this guy next without thinking about it." It's scummy.

Post 923 - I catch what I consider to be a tell from Glork, and FOS him for it.

Presumably the problem with this is that it's another person I'm suspicious of, raising my count.

Since two people didn't like "if he wants to be next let him" it probably was over the top. However, taking that line as proof to tell everyone else "See guys, I was right all along, get on the wagon" is a rather large stretch, and still definately worth a FOS.

Emphasis mine. This

is

a deliberate misinterpretation of my accusation. It has NOTHING to do with how many players you are suspicious of (and I never said anything of the sort so I don't even see how you got that) and everything to do with frustrated scum getting annoyed every time the player who keeps calling them out pokes at them. When I read that post I think, "it looks like someone is getting really annoyed every time Glork takes a jab at them, and finally snapped back at him," and that to me is more indicative of scum than town. This is the "overboard and not clear thinking" that I referred to.

Post 937 - I try to point out what I consider to be a significant gap in MBL's last two posts.

MBL's defended it by claiming it was there for people to read, but it sounded then, and still does now, pretty inconclusive. Why give a summary of 5 players before your reread, listing 2 as "dunno" and the other three with equally vague phrases, and then not give them a final rating? If you're going to rate them at all, rate them after the reread.

Meh, I don't buy that argument against MBL. It seems weak and forced, and I don't see a reason for town to be

trying

to build a case against someone on such a weak premise. MBL listed all the players in 3 posts. In his last post he was inconclusive about those 5 players. Simply means he isn't sure about there alignment and attacking him for being unsure about players is weak.

I'm sorry if I failed to grok the deeper meaning in your post, but there's really no need to get personally insulting (the spike TV reference) just because I called your post scummy. I thought it was scummy, I still think it is scummy, and if you [billy] think I'm scummy because I've mentioned doubts totaling 4-6 players on day one, then I'm sorry I cast my net so wide. I do rather like to defend myself, I believe that's what we're supposed to be doing when we're attacked. I don't like to leave things unanswered.

Is this last part to me? Not exactly sure what you mean, and sorry if I was insulting... I don't even know what the "Spike TV reference" is. Secondly, I

never

insinuated that I found you scummy because you have multiple suspects, and I find it scummy that you have gone to that several times in your last post.

[BillyTwilight]

err, actually i posted 2 days ago, with the request that somebody gives me a quick run-down of anything important, so i can get back into the game as quickly and easily as possible. If you are genuinely concerned about my activity, please do me the service of helping me catch up 30 pages worth of information, when i already owe large rereads in other games.

BM

First, your last substantial posts were on June 5th (post #'s 303 and 305). That's almost three full weeks of inactivity. I understand you had exams for a week, but you said you'd be posting regularly again by the week of the 11th. Since June 5th there have been 600+ posts and only 6 by you, none of them with content.

Second, its not our job to reread for you and post a synopsis of nearly 27 pages worth of posts. If you don't have time or desire to reread yourself and come to conclusions then you should ask for a replacement. I understand missing a week and taking a couple of days trying to get caught up, but you've been promising a reread and substantial posting since June 13th, ten days ago. I'm not trying to be hateful, but if you don't have time to concentrate on this game as well as your others then you should ask for a replacement.

@Shteven: Your post #937 makes my point for me. Post #890 gives me the feel of not wanting to vote YB, but trying to keep your options open in case you feel you have to. You state that you'd be "happy" with a YB lynch, but your sticking with your Guardian vote. So, what did YB do (or not do) that made you move from being "happy" with a YB lynch in post #937 to being "not sold" on a YB lynch in post #937? I don't see anything that YB did to justify this change of heart. What I do see is a slowing down of the wagon, with multiple players voicing that they thought YB was just being YB, or the like.

I guess I see post #890 as you keeping your options open if you felt things were moving towards a YB lynch, but wanting to wait and see how the rest of the players moved before committing. When it began to look like YB would escape an immediate lynch you felt comfortable in backing away from being "happy" with a YB lynch.

Granted, a lot of what I am seeing with you is due to the fact that I think YB is scum; therefore, I am looking at other players interactions with YB and your posts read to me like a scum-buddy who doesn't want him lynched but wants to be voting for him if he is lynched.

Mod, can we get prods/replacements for HackerHuck (last post June 14th), Johhan (last post June 14th), and Plessiez (last and only post June 13th)? Thank you.

[BillyTwilight]

Just to let you guys know, I will be at a conference all of next week. I should be able to get net access and post as normal, but I might not be able to.; if I can't I will be able to post again on Sunday.

[BillyTwilight]

Hey all. I've been trying to keep up with reading the thread, but haven't had a chance to compose a lengthy post. As far as general comments, I'm still happy with a YB lynch... his rebutal of my analysis does nothing to convince me he is pro-town. I'll try to have more significant comments tomorrow afternoon (EST).

[BillyTwilight]

Hey guys, sorry I wasn't able to post. I had a hard time getting to a comp the last couple days of the conference and spent yesterday catching up on some rest.

The quick wagon on Albert reeked of scum.

xyzzy: Albert look scummy, but he somehow looks different-scummy that he usually does when he looks scummy but turns up town.

Albert: Whatever

Yos: That's not a good defense!

Albert: When he actually posts an analysis I'll answer it

YB: So you are saying that laughing off that post is an effective defense!! BAHHH SCUM!

Albert: You guys, how can I make a defense against an argument that has no substance?

YoS, YB, Guardian, Glork, MBL, Hackerhuck, Shteven: YOUR SCUM!! Your overreacting! Give us a real defense, you always play scummy but this time its different!

Albert: I never claimed to intentionally play scummy.

YB: Yes you did! right here...

Albert: No

YB: Then maybe here...?

Albert: No.

YB: Ah, now I got you! How about right here!!

Albert: No. Stop twisting my words into arguments that they aren't.

YB: Albert's at -3! Vote everyone! Save me!

Glork: Um, wait a sec, this bandwagon smells, Albert's probably town.

And so forth and so on...

Ok, so that's a sweeping generalization, but when I read through that section thats the feeling I got. First of all, xyzzy

never

backed up his argument against Albert with something that Albert could actually defend against. Albert did get over-defensive about the wagon, but I can forgive him that. He's gone from being a suspicious player to having a huge wagon form on him in the space of a couple of days right before a deadline. I see it as frustration more than anything else.

YB on the other hand is the scummiest of players (surprise!) on the wagon. The way he dug for anything that he thought could be the "nail in the coffin" so-to-speak and was repeatedly rebuffed by ABR is telling. Maybe it's just that I see scum in everything YB does, but how can you guys not see how hard he's stretching to get a lynch on the first big wagon that comes along that might save his bacon? This after YB was stuck on TCS for so long. YB, what has Albert done (besides laugh off an attack that he couldn't bring a real defense against) in the last 7 pages or so that have so convinced you he's scum?

Going back to case building against YB, since it's been ridiculously hard to get people to vote for him.

Post #1090: His defense of my analysis of his play. Most of it is pretty lackluster, just confirming that he was doing what I said he was doing but trying to act like it was town play.

However, What I am really not liking from BT right now is the fact that he's speculating everything Ido and trying to make me look bad. Which I have done too Albert, I know, but BT is going, "im not sure if he's trying to be nice, nut iot sure seems like a scummy thing, or Hmm, That could be scummy, but Im not sure. Im really starting to think Billy is Trying to get even more evidence on me.

Yeah, I was trying to show more evidence against you. That's what you do when your scum-hunting.

Im sorry, I wont post frequently anymore when I play games. The thing is, Even if I do contradict myself on the bandwagon thing, I have reasons more than others who just say "I agree With Billy Twilight, Yogurt is scum, I finished my Re-read, I still think YB is scum, I think YB is scum for talking about I think he is scum" So, Some of the pepole who are on my bandwagon for that, you are contradicting yourself. Sarc, I mmainly pointing at you because BBB (Plessiez) Was voting me without BT's pbpa, and you all of the sudden come in and re-vote me after reading this pbpa. Let's face it, This bandwagon is easier to jump on than Guardian's, Which is the operfect oppurtunity for scum. FOS:Sarc. I think I will Do some more pbpa's of the pole on my bandwagon, and Im sure I'll find at least 1 person acting more scummy than me.( Look at Jack, and BT, barely posting, Lurking, Starting Bandwagons, Looking Pro-town). I actually belive MoS is the only one on the bandwagon that is Pro-town for the most part, since his case one me contains more info from himself and less info from Billy's Pbpa, but maybe that just what he wants. Bt's Contstant, "Maybe Yes, Maybe No" Comments about me are odd, I definetly think he's signaling his buddies or He wants to point Fingers at me( Fingers of suspicon, in a way, but not nesscarily, since he's voting me anyways.) I think I will look for connections between Billy and the pepole on this bandwago(Jack,HungryJoe,Mos,Sarcastro/BBB)I still think this pbpa is more of a (and this will sound really stupid when Isay it) "Scum Roundup" Than an Actuall acusation.

But Billy does have good stuff on me, I must say, So Im unsure about Billy's intentions. I will say, He's made it very easy for pepole to vote me and get away with it. If thats what you wanted Billy, Good Job. Fos: BillyTwilight

How is YB still not lynched? He effectively says, "BT, you got a good case against me," then he says, "but everyone who's been swayed by this case is scum. And I am going to FoS Billy for bringing a case against me that makes me look like scum. Like Jack, he's been lurking and starting bandwagons and looking protown, and with all this evidence against me he's just trying to point more fingers against me to signal all of his scumbuddies who just jumped right on the wagon with him, because even though I know he has a good case against me no one who is pro-town would actually be swayed into believing this unless they had their own reasons to be voting me." Please.

Lets see, when forced to claim he accuses Jack of rolefishing in post #1117. Then he continues the OMGUS in #1137, accusing MoS of being scum with me. By post #1143 I've become the godfather. It'd be nice if YB actually attempted to back up his accusations of me with anything other than OMGUS reasons. I've already talked about his crashing on the Albert wagon, but to reiterate, he jumped at the first chance he could of getting someone lynched instead of himself, even though he's been consistently on TCS the last month or so. At this point his OMGUSy play is ridiculous. YB, I suppose now I am the godfather, Sarcastro, HungryJoe, Jack, Glork, and Albert are all scum for voting you; I guess you'd include in that list TCS, maybe Guardian and MBL, and who know who else from the way accusations have been thrown around by you the last 15 pages or so.

There is a lot else to comment on, but I don't have the time right now to pick through the posts and hit them up. Albert's play has looked bad the last several pages, but I think it's bad/frustrated town play, not scum. Or at least, not scummy enough to lynch him

en lieu

of YB.

[BillyTwilight]

Battle Mage's refusal to make a decision in this debate is noted.

[BillyTwilight]

Checked the thread again, and, sure enough, YB is still scum.

Vote: YogurtBandit

Guardian looks bad, and I don't like MBL's posts so far day 2. Jack is town. BM is BM and therefore hard for me to read. Don't really believe that he *forgot* to post his vote at the end of day 1. I also don't like TCS' post #1455. More later tonight when I have time to read MoS more thoroughly.

[BillyTwilight]

That Billytwilight can honestly think I'm scum at this point makes me question his judgment about everything else.

Sorry, TCS, I guess I missed the posts where you were confirmed town.

---

Just got through a reread of MoS w/out context. MoS came into the game with a vote of MBL and a FoS of YB. Stuck with this until YB continued to answer questions directed to other players, whereupon he switched his vote to YB. He made a defense of Guardian and Shteven, and continued an attack on MBL for the majority of his time in the game. I don't see MBL being scum here, but I can still see YB being scum. The original FoS would have been a warning, and the vote was a jump-ship when he thought YB looked like he was a sure lynch for the day. Nevertheless my surety of YB being scum was lessened somewhat by the re-read. I can't tell if MoS voted him as a bus or if MoS voted him as an easy mislynch. Vote stays for now.

As far as Guardian and Shteven go, my suspicion of Guardian has largely been due to his interaction with YB. The fact that MoS worked to try and keep Guardian's wagon as small as possible is a point against Guardian. If YB, Guardian, and MoS are all scum I can see MoS being willing to bus one of them, but not 2 so early in the game. As for Shteven, MoS' entry post into the game had Shteven as scummy at first then becoming more protown. After that he largely ignored Shteven, even when asked about Shteven by Glork. When pushed on it he simply said that "Shteven doesn't really look all that scummy". Those are the biggest interactions that I have seen with MoS and other players so far this game.

The weak wagon against Glork is stupid. You guys are seriously wanting to go after him because he's seems only sorta pro-town and not town enough, and that Glork gets defensive when someone mentions that as a point against him? As many scummy players as there have been in this game, these are the reason you chose to attack a player? Sheesh.

[BillyTwilight]

If he's the Doc, he could find himself the target of both kills so that Doc protection won't save him; or, if only one group targets him, the presence of a second Doc could save him.

Whoa, I need a point of clarification here. I thought a Doc protection typically granted NK immunity regardless of how many times that player was targeted by a killing group in a night phase. Maybe it's just my relative newbiness, never seen this definition of a doc protection before.

I'm willing to give Guardian a pass for the day on that claim. I agree with Glork that if he's a doc he's probably doomed at some point in the next few night phases anyway, so why waste a lynch? If he manages to survive till we get close to endgame we can deal with him then.

FoS: inHim

for wanting to kill a claimed doc with no further discussion and his crusade against Glork. First Glork's protecting Guardian-his-scumbuddy then he's angling to get Guardian-not-his-scumbuddy lynched? Your reaching to force a Glork lynch.

[BillyTwilight]

If he's the Doc, he could find himself the target of both kills so that Doc protection won't save him; or, if only one group targets him, the presence of a second Doc could save him.

Whoa, I need a point of clarification here. I thought a Doc protection typically granted NK immunity regardless of how many times that player was targeted by a killing group in a night phase. Maybe it's just my relative newbiness, never seen this definition of a doc protection before.

The doc role PM, shown in post 0, says it works this way.

Oops. *embarrassed*

[BillyTwilight]

Sorry guys, I let this game slip off my radar. Apologies.

...
I might as well pull this vote out of my pocket and give you all a little something to go on.

Vote: YogurtBandit

You must have missed the memo; you know, the one that said we don't pursue or otherwise look at one of the scummiest players in the game who was 1 vote from being lynched on day 1 because the guy that we

did

lynch came up town. [/bitter sarcasm]

Anyway, on a quick reread I really don't like Shteven. For the present I am content to let the Guardian claim work itself out, and I can't understand some people's extreme desire to lynch him. I don't know if I particularly believe his claim, but odds are he won't survive more than a couple of nights, and leaving him alive drawing connections to other living players will give us a lot more info if he is killed later. One thing that really bothers me about Shteven's stance is that he originally backed off Guardian, then (as Guardian has already pointed out) switched right back to a vote of Guardian, as if he forgot that he was supposed to be waiting to see what happened to Guardian in the night phase. Couple that with continuously going after Glork for baseless reasons and otherwise inserting what I consider to be confusing gibberish in the thread gives an

unvote, Vote: Shteven

. Still don't like inHim's play and my FoS there stands. ManaSpryte simply doesn't have enough content to draw a conclusion about. Hopefully tonight I will be able to give a brief write up of the remaining players and how I feel about them.

BTW, can we please manage to keep day 2 from going 50+ pages as well?

[BillyTwilight]

Glork, at the end of day 1 you seemed pretty gung-ho about YB being scum, IIRC. Most of day 2 you've reverted back to your game long pursuit of lynching Shteven. I don't have a problem with that, however, I'd still like to know what your current take on YB is, and why do you think that someone who was so close to a lynch day 1 has pretty much skated on day 2?

[BillyTwilight]

I am very surprised that there are so many votes on YB. I thought at some point we made a decision not to lynch him... Oh well, sometimes the rain quits falling, clouds open up, sweet manna from heaven coats the ground, the angels break out in glorious song, and players in Mafia 64 actually vote for YB. Yay!

Unvote, Vote: YogurtBandit

.

[BillyTwilight]

I agree completely with Guardian's post about YB being terrible town, which is why I've put him back down on my list. However, what I find strange is that in consecutive posts, Guardian says that "a YB lynch...would not disappoint [him]" and then says he thinks YB is just bad town. Mind explaining that one, Guardian?

This post is weird. The sudden changes of heart regarding YB around this place are extremely frustrating.

I am going to be out of town for the next week, with no internet connection (going camping in the great wild, yay!). I'd prefer not to be replaced. This will be my last absence till probably Christmas.

[BillyTwilight]

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been active. I just haven't had the energy to devote to a read of this thread since I got back from vacation; I might ask LML for a replacement, there is just too much information constantly going into this thread and the semester has started up here, so I haven't been able to force myself to devote the time I need to this game. I'll try to give a read through of everything that's happened since I was gone and post at some point this evening or tonight, but I can't guarantee anything. I don't know if LML will be able to find someone willing to replace into an 80+ page game, so I might just stick it out, but I won't be devoting daily time to this thread; I just have too much else going on and other games that are quicker without the enormous amount of information that this one has.

[BillyTwilight]

Wow, this game went crazy. Reading back through the end of day 2:

Glork has me as suspicious because I wasn't voting for Sarc. Well, I was gone and/or not reading the thread during that period, so I wouldn't have been able to comment on Sarc's wagon. If I had, there is no way in hell I would have voted Sarc. The case against him was stupidly weak, I've seen many players play with that style. Basically he was lynched because he was lurking and popping in the snazzy comments that didn't really help the game - a weak case in comparison with some of the others, including YB. I would have been pissed if I realized that YB was going to not be lynched again because of a bad wagon on another player; the fact that Sarc was scum doesn't make the case against him any stronger, either.

I am now extremely suspicious of Glork. Glork's play so far this game has been very wishy washy. Look at Day 1, especially towards the end, day 2, the multiple cases he has brought against Shteven, Guardian, inHim, Yos2, even MBL, YB, and TCS to some extent. He's had relatively good evidence against all of these players, and has backed off again and on again against them throughout the game. As much as he has been jumping around, he landed on Sarc with the worst case out of any of the players and effectively stayed there. I find it ridiculous that someone who has been so inconsistent in his scum-hunting managed to nail scum on such a bad case without waivering on him. The closest Glork came was switching his vote to MBL, but when MBL voted Sarc Glork jumped right back on the wagon.

Then day 3 Glork's first post tries to eliminate an entire set of players from suspicion, including himself. And since then he is back to his flip-flopping around ways on players. I just find it incredibly strange that Glork managed to be on Sarcs wagon with so little evidence, then turn around and say "we shouldn't look at anyone on Sarcs wagon as being teamscum". Plus Glork seems to be convinced that Sarc was doomed to a lynch at some point anyway, I'm sure if he is teamscum that he'd prefer to be on and to some extent to lead a wagon against Sarc.

FoS: Glork

.

I'll have to more carefully read the last 5 pages or so. Guardian's lie bothers me A LOT. I don't know if I think he is teamscum or SK or if I believe him, but I'd rather deal with him now then have these questions come up in the endgame. The fact that he breadcrumbed his claim is extremely disturbing, because it shows he was very worried about being lynched and wanted a plan of action to avoid the lynch if possible.

I kind of think at this point that we

have

to lynch Guardian, because if he is telling the truth then scum will leave him alive as an albatross around our neck till the endgame. We need confirmation on his role ASAP.

[BillyTwilight]

Can we get a vote count, please?

Policy lynching is such a bad idea, by the way. What does it accomplish? Nothing.

Especially if you policy lynch me, I would do the exact same thing again, unless you convinced me it was bad play -- which at this point I am not at all convinced of -- all I am convinced of is that people are closed minded and quick to pull out the Lynch All Liars card. Smile

What does policy lynching accomplish? It teaches people not to do stupid things like this as town. You know why LaL is a

modus operandi

around here, Guardian? Because it works. Guardian, accept the fact that, if you are town, you made a DUMB MOVE. You want a worst case scenario? Here you go. Scum will not NK you at this point, more than likely. Suppose that we manage to lynch the remaining teamscum, but can't find the SK, and we get into a known LyLO situation with three players including you. What should they do then? Go after each other and ignore the person who was caught fake claiming 30 or 40 pages back? If you

are

town you can see how the SK would have a relatively easy time of forcing your lynch, and then the entire game would be lost due to YOUR LIE. Now, you may think this seems far-fetched, but it is EXACTLY the scenario that the SK and teamscum are playing for, if you are in fact town.

At this point, however, I don't think you are town. What it comes down to for me is that you obviously planned a doc claim from early game. I don't see this being from town psychology, especially from someone who has been lynched before as town and understands that the game goes on without them and they still have a good shot at the win. It reads more like someone who desperately wants to stay alive, like someone who knew he needed to stay alive in order to win. Regardless, your not going to be night killed at this point, and we have to make a decision about you sooner or later. I'd rather make it now while we are ahead and not in the endgame when the consequences could be far, far worse. Once we get a vote count I'll will hammer (if that is where we are in number of votes - too tired/lazy to go back to the last official VC and add things up).

Glork, I'll more carefully address your play/rebuttal to my post tomorrow, as well. The main reason I am not hammering now, if that's indeed where we stand.

[BillyTwilight]

Hey guys, my internet access died this morning, and I have a monstrously long post that I need to post before the day ends. It's almost done... please don't anyone hammer Guardian until I can post this.

Thanks.

[BillyTwilight]

Guardian, you need to come to grips with the fact that your play here was bad, if you are town. If you don't, and you repeat these kind of actions as town in the future, your simply never going to be a great player here.

The basis of Lynch all Liars is simple. In a typical, non-bastard setup, town doesn't have to lie in order to win. Scum often times does. If we don't enforce lynch all liars we take away one of the most sure ways of finding scum in any given game. Why do that? Why allow scum to be able to use the kinds of arguments you have in the last few pages to explain away their actions, as would inevitably happen if town-lying became commonplace in the game? In response to the policy lynching, if I really thought you were town based on all of your other actions I would still lynch you, or at least attempt to get you lynched. In this case I don't think so; even with your "bah" post I still think your scum. Your defense of your actions is lame, and reading it I don't even really believe that you believe the stuff your saying. If you are town, I really hope you learn a lesson here. If town, your gambit here was bad, and we are actually lucky that it turned out much better for us than it could have. And claiming responsibility for Sarc's lynch is just plain silly.

---

Glork:

Glork has me as suspicious because I wasn't voting for Sarc. Well, I was gone and/or not reading the thread during that period, so I wouldn't have been able to comment on Sarc's wagon. If I had, there is no way in hell I would have voted Sarc. The case against him was stupidly weak, I've seen many players play with that style. Basically he was lynched because he was lurking and popping in the snazzy comments that didn't really help the game - a weak case in comparison with some of the others, including YB. I would have been pissed if I realized that YB was going to not be lynched again because of a bad wagon on another player; the fact that Sarc was scum doesn't make the case against him any stronger, either.

It's not just that you were off of the Sarc-wagon. There's also the fact that you've laid rather low throughout the game (in my opinion), although I'll have to go back and look at that. Truth be told, you're mostly on there by process of elimination, and I want to take a long look at your posts/interactions before coming to a decision as to whether I think you're scum.

I don't have a defense against the lying low thing. I've been on vacation for a total of three weeks since this game started; it's been (usually) so fast that catching up has been painful for me. To be totally honest this game has kind of bored me. There has been a ton of posting, yet we have managed to have 2 deadline lynches that were more or less by-the-seat-of-our-pants lynches, without a lot of real evidence, what I would consider a solid case, against those players. Burying myself in the sea of posts that this game has become is just not something I sit down at the comp and look forward too, especially since I have been in several games that have held more interest for me on and off this site during that time. At least the whole Guardian fiasco has pumped some life into the game, for me.

I am now extremely suspicious of Glork. Glork's play so far this game has been very wishy washy. Look at Day 1, especially towards the end, day 2, the multiple cases he has brought against Shteven, Guardian, inHim, Yos2, even MBL, YB, and TCS to some extent. He's had relatively good evidence against all of these players, and has backed off again and on again against them throughout the game.

I'll admit that I've backed off on a lot of players, but that has an awful lot to do with the way my playstyle has evolved over the past four months or so. In Lights Out 2, I was hyper-aggressive, stubborn, and I made a ton of noise during my time there. Unfortunately (as I think I've mentioned before), that led to me being on four mislynches during Day One. While I managed to right the ship and pushed two correct lynches on Day Two, I was still lynched D3 primarily because of my bad play early on. In Scrubs Mafia, I staunchly pushed a lynch on VitaminR D1 based on some metagaming and nightkill analysis. As it turns out, my nightkill analysis was

COMPLETELY

wrong, but I lucked into hitting VitR as scum that day. After the game, when night actions were revealed and I noticed how wrong I was, I again looked at my gameplay fairly critically. There are some other ongoing games where I've either played stubbornly or have referenced my change-in-philosophy, but the fact is that I'm trying not to do the kind of thing that I did in LO2, Scrubs, or to Shteven early on in this game.

I also have game-related reasons for backing off of the players that I have. And I find that your claim that I've backed off of everybody is rather flawed. If you'll note, I listed Sarcastro as one of my three Most Likely Mafiosi, yet you assert that I've "backed off" of him just because I'm poking around elsewhere. Considering I'm making a concerted effort to scale back my tendency to tunnel-vision my play, I don't think it is at all odd that I'd look elsewhere.

This goes more towards my argument against you than it does as a defense. If this is the way you have decided to play this game, why the hard-core stance on Sarc? (By hard core I mean your current stance that he was doomed for a lynch and the way that you stayed on his wagon with a lack of real evidence, especially any evidence that you really made against him.) It doesn't make sense to me, as I just find his play (or lack thereof) in this game to be a difficult read at best.

As much as he has been jumping around, he landed on Sarc with the worst case out of any of the players and effectively stayed there. I find it ridiculous that someone who has been so inconsistent in his scum-hunting managed to nail scum on such a bad case without wavering on him. The closest Glork came was switching his vote to MBL, but when MBL voted Sarc Glork jumped right back on the wagon.

Again, I assert that my case (at least in my own mind) was strong enough to push Sarc as I did. At first, I was only interested in applying some pressure, but when Sarc's subsequent behavior fit in with my opinion of SarcScum, I definitely wanted to stay there. I regret that I never explained myself more thoroughly at the time, but I'm actually getting rather irritated that people keep stating that going after Sarc was "bad," "weak," or "lucky."

I just don't see it. You are retroactively trying to tell us that you had a very strong case against Sarc at the time that you neglected to inform us of. I went back and looked at your posts that have something to do with Sarc or his predecessors. You were very wishy-washy on BBB, saying you'd take a look at him, he might be scum, agreeing with him on some issues involving MBL, etc. Overall I get the feeling that his play was sticking out to you but you weren't making a lot of effort to comment on it. You never mentioned Plessiez as far as I can tell, and you only had 3 comments on Sarc leading up to your initial vote of him.

Post #1302: "But at this point, do you think learning the alignment of Yos2 or Sarcastro or Autumn will be more helpful than learning Albert's alignment? Highly unlikely." Here is your first mention of Sarc, and I find it odd that his name is in this list. You and inHim were arguing over what lynches would give the most information, and for some reason you have Sarc stuck in there when I can't find any reason for you to mention him here, as you hadn't mentioned him before this.

Post #1716: "2) Sarc could very well be scum, though I haven't yet taken a very close look at him." Something you had already said you would do about BBB, way back in early day 1. This was in response to AE questioning you, then you avoiding those questions till she voted you, then you finally answering them.

Post #1829: "I'd like to see more pressure on both MBL and Sarcastro, and I'm sure there are lower-profile players who are lurking through this mess." First mention of Sarc in over 100 posts; obviously you didn't go back and look at him as you implied that you would in post #1716.

Want to quote the entirety of the next one:

I think if inHim is scum caught with his pants down, he's probably the SK and he was trying to signal to the scums that he's going to target Guardian.

I agree completely with Guardian's post about YB being terrible town, which is why I've put him back down on my list. However, what I find strange is that in consecutive posts, Guardian says that "a YB lynch...would not disappoint [him]" and then says he thinks YB is just bad town. Mind explaining that one, Guardian?

Vote: Sarcastro

Mod(s): Prod MrBuddyLee, please.

First note is that your vote of Sarc was not based on any case that you made against him, as can be seen from the above quotes. If I had to put my finger on it I would say that you were just following through with your request in post #1829. I should also note that neither Sarc or MBL posted in that time (obv.), so It really looks like your vote was simply to encourage Sarc to talk more. However, I do believe that Sarc was under a little bit of pressure from AE and some other players at the time, which I think is an interesting psychological moment. You were the first to vote Sarc, and I am trying to figure out why. There had been some pressure on him, and I think that perhaps you were testing the waters to see how far town would go against Sarc. I don't think at the time you thought that Sarc was really likely to be lynched (don't see how you could think that, he had been under some pressure yes, but not enough to have garnered a vote for him from anyone else at the time), but at the same time you have admitted to feeling like he would inevitably be lynched in this game anyway. AE jumped straight onto the wagon, not surprisingly; she had been on Sarc since back when he called himself BBB. When Jack asked you to explain your vote on Sarc, instead of answering with the case that you claim to have had in your recent defense, you ignored him and attacked TCS vehemently. Later you answer the question when asked again by Guardian with a meta-game read on Sarc, which as I have said I feel to be a relatively weak argument against him, especially with several other players (including Guardian, who had been hopping around and playing rather erratically throughout the latter part of day 2) who were acting far scummier. After you made this case (which you now feel was a strong case against him) you jumped momentarily to MBL in a very OMGUSy fashion when he voted for you and didn't explain his vote. But once he voted Sarc, you jumped right back on the Sarc wagon. You never mentioned Sarc again until the start of day 2. At the moment yours was the fifth vote for Sarc, but he was still behind YB in the lynch-line. I don't know if you expected the YB wagon to outpace the Sarc wagon or what, but from that moment on you never tried to convince people to vote Sarc as the deadline approached. I find that a slight contrast to the end of day 1, where you were very active in trying to make sure the person you were voting for was lynched. Perhaps it was because Guardian put the high vote on Sarc shortly after you voted him; I don't know. I just find the entire wagon to be very fishy and far, far different play than you have exhibited in this game when you have attacked other players. It looks to me like you never

really

tried to get other players to join the Sarc vote, and you certainly never posted anything to try to keep anyone on the Sarc wagon from getting cold feet and jumping off right before the deadline.

Then day 3 Glork's first post tries to eliminate an entire set of players from suspicion, including himself.

Inaccurate at best, disturbingly misrepresentative at worst. I have not tried to clear an entire group of players. I stated that I found the Sarc-lynchers to be less likely to be his scumbuddies.
--First of all, that is

far from

attempting to clear any of them. Again, note that since then, I have named Shteven,

who was on the Sarc-wagon

, as one of my Most Likely Mafiosi.
--Second of all, stating that I found them less likely to be buddies with Sarc

does not say anything about the likelihood of them being the Serial Killer

. I have not tried to "eliminate from suspicion" ANYBODY, because I fully realize that the tells for finding an SK will be vastly different than the tells for finding the last Mafia Goon or the Mafia Godfather.
You claim that I want to call six people in the game innocents, when I do not want to do that at all. Try again, sir.

You are in some ways underestimating your sway in this forum. You were on a successful lynch to end day 2. You suggested at the start of day 3 that "I believe that both other Mafiates were off of the Sarcastro-lynch." I think a lot of players, perhaps without even thinking it through, would think "Glorktown is paragoning the mafia, lets follow his lead and not look at people on the wagon." The fact that people ignored that and still looked at the full set of players, and thus forced you to also look at the full set of players (example, Shteven: you said in that post, "Surprisingly, I don't think Shteven is a member of the Mafia right now," and you have since reneged when other players continued to look at Shteven) doesn't change anything. In your first day 3 post you suggested that we don't look at Sarc's wagon for mafia and at the same time quasi-cleared Shteven, the player you have fought with the most in this game. I think you were trying to say "I don't think we need to look here anymore; see, I'm even clearing Shteven who I've been gunning for this whole game".

And since then he is back to his flip-flopping around ways on players. I just find it incredibly strange that Glork managed to be on Sarcs wagon with so little evidence, then turn around and say "we shouldn't look at anyone on Sarcs wagon as being teamscum"

This is ridiculous and absurd and a horrible misquote. Go back and

LOOK AT WHAT I ACTUALLY SAID

regarding that issue:

I was reviewing people not on the Sarc wagon, and HH fit the profile of somebody I'd like to look at. Yos2 and Billy did, too. Surprisingly, I don't think Shteven is a member of the Mafia right now. Given how devastating losing a second member by the end of D2 would be, I believe that both other Mafiates were off of the Sarcastro-lynch.

This is merely a statment of what my initial reaction to the current game-state was. I stated

MY OPINION

and never stated that anybody (neither myself nor anybody else) should accept my hypothesis as true. Note that my statement that Shteven was unlikely to be mafia was qualified with "right now." The reason for that is because I was not willing to commit completely to a gut reaction, but that I wanted to note and point out said reaction. Any assertion that I "tried to clear an entire group of players" is a complete and utter misstatement.

Then why did you make it? Why state what effectively comes down to "we don't need to look here now" if you were perfectly ready and willing to go look there then??

Plus Glork seems to be convinced that Sarc was doomed to a lynch at some point anyway, I'm sure if he is teamscum that he'd prefer to be on and to some extent to lead a wagon against Sarc.

Yes, I am convinced that Sarc was doomed to a lynch. The reasons for that should be obvious enough, but I'm going to be stubborn and refuse to go through them in detail right now.

I still don't understand this. Maybe I'm just at a meta-disadvantage here for not having played with Sarc or most of these other players before, but I honestly can't see such a strong case against him...

and you have never, ever laid out what that case was

.

This is my main problem: Anytime I see a player who exhibits far different play with regard to one wagon than on any other wagon that has happened in a game this large, and

especially

when that wagon lynches scum, I become extremely nervous about that person's play. When that person's first post on the next day hints that town shouldn't look at the lynched-scum's voters from the previous day, indirectly including them self, it makes my skin crawl even more. My FoS stands.

---

Since Jack unvoted I will go ahead and

Vote: Guardian

. I don't know if I will get a chance to check the thread again tonight, and I'd like to see Guardian lynched before we get sidetracked onto something else. I'd also like Glork to have a chance to answer this post, but I think it can probably wait till day 4. Guardian is today's lynch. Thanks for not hammering him while I finished this.

[BillyTwilight]

Glork, I'd like to hear a response to my post #2171, if it please ya.

I'd also like to hear a lot more input from MBL, inHim, and YB at this point. inHim was fairly vocal but completely dropped out of the conversation when the Guardian fiasco started. MBL had zero posts on day 3, and little to no input in day 2 other than popping in to vote for Sarcastro. YB has been posting sporadic 1 or 2 liners for the last couple of weeks as well.

Jack, I'd also like some input from you on the game as a whole. You had quite a bit yesterday in regards to Guardian, but I'd like a more thorough analysis of the game as a whole.

TCS, I'm holding you to being more active.

And everyone else, hold me to being more active, too. (Talk about pointing out your own faults in others...)

I am not opposed to a mass claim.

Kinetic, would you mind going through your case against TCS again?

[BillyTwilight]

As to the first paragraph (regarding your inactivity), there's not much to be said, I think. I've noticed that you've been relatively inactive. You've explained that you've been busy/away, and fairly disinterested. Unfortunately, it's really hard to assess a response like that. (I went after Thok early in Calvin & Hobbes when he was inactive, but he turned out to be town in that game... but then, I've seen players -- Sarc here, Thok in LO2 -- lurk as scum.)

Tic for tac, I suppose. It's one of the major disadvantages that I see for town in a large game. You had RL issues when the Sarc wagon happened and that's resulted in my suspicion of you, I've had RL/boredom issues and that's led to suspicion of me on your part. I would like to note however that this is the first "large" game I've been in. I wasn't really prepared to play when so many different threads of interactions occurred in the first couple of days, which in part led to my disinterest in the game. I complained about it several times in thread; there were just so many posts and so many interactions that I couldn't concentrate or pin down anything on any one player, except for YB, who seemed to stand out like a sore thumb. After my enormously long post against YB on day 1, which took hours to research and write, there simply seemed to be a mostly "blah" response in regards to YB. It felt like even a lot of the people that were voting for him early in the game were only really there because of a deadline being imposed. After that much (what I thought to be good) work on that post and a lackluster response from the players, I got a bit frustrated and simply didn't want to read so many posts and compose replies to them anymore. Now that the number of players have dropped into the more mini-game size I am getting a lot more "into" the game than I have been to this point.

I would hardly describe my stance as "hard-core." You yourself looked back over the interactions, and I was definitely hunting about elsewhere... as indicated when I went after MBL briefly.

That's not the point I was making. To this point in the game you have been fairly wishy washy in regards to your opinion on other players. I didn't see that with Sarc. Even when you jumped off him for a while, there was never a "maybe Sarc is, maybe he isn't, etc." feel to your posts that I got from other people you have targeted. For instance, I think you had some arguments about Albert or YB on day 1 saying something along the lines of you calculating him to be a slightly better than random chance at being scum, or the like. There was never any of this kind of give with respect to Sarc. You switched your vote to MBL, and when he voted Sarc you had a statement like "Now, there is a vote I can get behind," or the like and you went straight back to Sarc. That is what I meant by "hard-core". You never had any analysis that made me think you had a real reason to be so ready to lynch Sarc, as you obviously were.

As stupid (and probably hypocritical) as it sounds, I never made a case against Sarc because of a slew of real-life events. If you care to reference, you can check the plethora of V/LA posts I've been making in the past month and a half or my post in the Dantes in Fresno signup thread.
Early-game, I just had my focus elsewhere. It was mainly on Shteven, with Guardian, Albert, BM, and a couple others catching my attention from time to time. I didn't comment on Plessiez because his only posts were his "hey, glad to be here" and his "Still rereading the thread" posts. I could pretty much tell that he'd just end up getting replaced, so I didn't bother.

So yes, I didn't put as much pressure onto Sarc as I could have. I fail to see how this is, by any means, a fault of mine or an indication that I might be scummy.

Glork, I simply disagree. You have made cases against players, or otherwise gunned for players like TCS about their playstyle. You say that you had RL issues to deal with, and maybe you did, I can't argue against that. But for the purpose of this game, you treated the Sarc wagon differently, IMO, than any other in the game. I'll get more to a fluent answer on this later, you kinda ask the same thing again at the end (

vide infra

).

My comment in 1302 was more pointing out how hotly contested Albert's wagon and lynch were. It seemed rather pivotal. I can't honestly remember why I put those three names. Looking around, nobody seemed to suspect AE, and Yos/Sarc were fairly inactive... so it seemed like a random lynching of either of them would have yielded less information.

1716 -- I didn't avoid answering them... if you honestly think that I deliberately avoided in-plain-sight answering those questions and then caved to a single pressure vote from AE, you're delusional. As I stated, I had forgotten that she asked those questions... and obviously I had no qualms about answering them. Anyway, what I said about Sarcastro was truth. I had noticed his inactivity, but hadn't looked at him to see if it was indicative of him being scum.

1829 -- To say that I hadn't looked at Sarcastro is an absolute lie. There is a very specific reason that I cited SARCASTRO and MRBUDDYLEE among the players who were lurking. They were the two who struk me as most likely to be scum. This is evidenced by my subsequent votes on both players, my support of the SarcLynch D2, and my current vote on MrBuddyLee.
Just because I don't say "I think that Sarc is scum because of X, Y, Z, and YourMother" does not mean that I hadn't examined his play. Sometimes, instead of laying it thick on somebody, you call for pressure and see who responds to that call. Seeing which players openly and willingly join you in pressuring a scumbag into activity (and/or an eventual lynch) can give you an assload of information. I wanted pressure on Sarc because A) I wanted to see Sarc actually do something; and B) I wanted to see who was willing to go after him.

I can't disagree with your theory; I think it's fundamentally sound. Unfortunately, it does nothing to clear you from being scum. You and I both know that the best scumplay approximates town play as closely as possible. The point of citing those posts was to show that you had very, very little interaction with Sarc at all, up until that point. There were many players whom you have gone back and forth with A LOT in this game so far. By the time day 2 ended you had 231 posts to your count. A very, very tiny percentage of those even mentioned Sarc or his predecessors. You've gotten into multiple discussions/attacks against many players, most notably Shteven, but also Guardian on day 1, inHim, to some extent TCS, and various other players. But you barely mentioned Sarc. Yet it seemed from your play that you were far more ready to lynch Sarc than any other player up to that point.

Your response to my point about post #1829 is overboard. How could I possibly have lied? I said you hadn't looked at Sarc (meaning presented a strong case against him or had some kind of dialog with him, trying to gauge his alliance). You call me a liar, implying that I was supposed to know that you

did

look at Sarc when you yourself have admitted that you made no really concrete case against him or otherwise engaged him in conversation (at that point) to ascertain that he was scum.

This whole thing emphasizes my argument. The "I think that Sarc is scum because of..." part shows exactly what I am talking about. You simply haven't done this with anyone else in the game, at least, you didn't do this and then turn around and become one of the biggest driving forces for their lynch. Your MO this game has been analysis, questioning, pressure, dialog. Not so with Sarc, yet you were more than ready, in fact slightly eager to lynch him.

Perhaps you are right in that I underestimate my level of influence around here. I tend to label my influence as what I

think

it should be, rather than what it

really is

sometimes. (Case in point: McDonald's Mafia, where like four or five players just followed me blindly, and it became really hard to get decent reads with just a bunch of "Yay, Glork voted X so we should vote X" posts.)

Your paragraph here makes it sound like I intentionally tried to get everyone to clear six players while failing to understand my own influence on the game. I see these two points as being contradictory.
If I were intentionally trying to influence the town's thinking, then I must necessarily believe that I have a significant level of influence on the town.
Contrapositively, if I don't think I have a whole lot of influence, I likely wouldn't be trying to influence everyone by way of a single side-comment or a gut-reaction post.

I think that you're missing the pink elephant on the coffee table, Billy, while attempting to swat the gnat on the windowsill.

Misinterpreting what I said. When I said you were underestimating your sway on the board, I meant that the argument you were making into my questions about that post were underestimating your sway on the forum. I never meant to imply that you really were underestimating your sway, but that the argument you were making underestimated it. I think it would be rather easy for Glorkscum to think that people might follow where he leads based on his board presence and try to misdirect town, and just as easy for Glorkscum to make an argument based on the fact that "no one would just blindly follow me in that kind of suggestion."

...
I really truly can't fault you for this reasoning. I didn't explain myself, and that's my own damned fault. You don't understand how I could have been so certain that Sarc would be lynched on D3, and it's not completely unreasonable for that lack of undersatnding to lead to suspicion. I understand exactly why you don't like my behavior towards Sarc. Unfortunately, I really don't think I have any explanation that can properly satisfy you. Suffice to say, I fucked up and didn't nail Sarc down when I had the chance. I would've gotten him D3, had it come to it, but that just didn't happen.

I would, however, like you to explain one thing. You stated that my behavior being different,

especially since it led to a scum lynch

, made you nervous. I'm curious to know how you came to the conclusion that I was

suspicious

for my behavior towards Sarc, as opposed to simply being right (for once). If you'll note, my track record as a whole isn't that good, and when my behavior percievably changed, I helped lead a lynch on scum. Why was your reaction "Wow, that's suspicious" rather than "Wow, he changed things up and finally did something right"?

Because you emphasized the wrong part. Should read (from my perspective), "You stated that

my behavior being different

, especially since it led to a scum lynch, made you nervous."

The whole point is that teamscum know who each other are. They can also tend to overestimate the danger that their buddy is in, and think there is a really strong case against him/her when their really isn't one. I guess your play reminds me a little of a game referenced in the Too Townie wiki entry, where Stoofer was lynched in the late game because he had been on every scum lynch and on none of the town lynches. Whoever was left in the game felt that there was no way Stoofer could be 100% right on every lynch that had occurred in the game without inside information, i.e- he new who all the scum were because he was scum. They were correct. Now, I don't think your play is nearly that obvious with respect to Sarc, but what I

do

see is a player whose style was completely different with respect to Sarc, who turned out to be scum; that player has made several statements saying that they felt Sarc was doomed for a lynch, and the whole thing screams "inside information" to me. The only way I can see that is if you are teamscum or if you are a cop, and the rest of your play on day 2 (before the Sarc wagon) is inconsistent with you being a cop with a guilty on Sarc.

---

I also come from the unique perspective of knowing that I am A) a likely scum target, based on the failed mafia kill and Spryte's protection of me; and B) a protown player. So I see the massclaim as being less destructive than you or Yos would. I'm essentially confirmed as non-Mafia, and while a couple of people have expressed Glork-SK sentiments, I know that's not the case. I won't be lynched today, and I'll be killed tonight, so making some suspicious players (MBL, Sarcastro, possibly inHim or something) claim would be beneficial in my eyes.

I (obv.) don't consider you to be confirmed non-Mafia. We don't know that there isn't another doc in the game who could very well have protected another player on the night when there was apparently no mafia kill. Also, did the mod ever answer the question about if both scum groups target the same person will the death scene include both kinds of deaths (chainsawing and being shot)?

[BillyTwilight]

Glork, for the most part I believe your claim. I think the biggest thing is the missed night kill more than anything; I knew that was a problem with my pursuit of you, but I felt your actions against Sarc outweighed what might have been explained by other coincidental issues in the night phase of the game. I never thought about the possibility that you were a cop in regards to Sarc. I assumed when you were talking about nailing Sarc for sure on D3 you meant you had some kind of concrete case against him which I just couldn't find; never entered my mind that you meant he would have been your investigation target that night. My only question is, why have you not investigated Shteven? I figured as much as you have gone back and forth on him, you would have used one of those nights to investigate him.

Your play makes a lot more sense now though, and I am feeling kinda stupid for outing a cop.

Jack, you are correct, making long, (hopefully) convincing, logical arguments against players

is

my playstyle, but I do it as both town and scum. Unfortunately, all my completed games I have been scum in; you'll have to take it on faith that that is my style as both town and scum. I think you will find though, if you bother to look, that I strive, in all of my games, to make the kinds of long analysis of a given player that I have against YB and Glork in this game, backed up with as much evidence as possible against them. The only case where that is not really true is in Clue, where things are so slow and murky that I simply haven't been able to pick apart any given player in those games, although I did have that kind of argument against MBL on Day2 of Clue 1. We lynched him, and he turned out to be a SK.

In regards to other players, I am most interested in hearing MBL's rebuttal to Glork's accusations, but I don't know if that will happen. His board presence in the games I have been in with him the last couple of weeks to a month has been pretty abysmal.

I also have to say that I am very, very nervous about Kinetic. I need a reread of Battle Mage and Kinetic's posting on day 3. Kinetics quick reversal wrt Guardian yesterday seems very forced to me, and I think we need to have a strong look at him. The way BM fought to stay in this game when he was originally replaced was fishy, especially considering he tried to lurk his way through the game.

[BillyTwilight]

Kinetic, you replaced into the game with post #1981. Shortly after you entered, Manaspryte claimed, and the fiasco with Guardian started. Before Guardian rescinded his claim, you claimed to be very suspicious of him. Of course Guardian backpedaling on his claim did nothing to assuage that suspicion, but you weren't ready to vote him yet. There are a couple of posts of interest from you during this time. First post #2015 in which you laid out your "big picture" of the game so far. In this post you voted TCS, and you used this as the reasons for your vote of him early today.

Next post of interest is post #2059, where you claim a couple of things. First, you state you are still willing to push a TCS lynch, but that if a wagon begins to form against HH you are willing to vote there as well. Also you state that you are unsure about Guardian's "unclaim", that you thought he might be an SK before his unclaim, but that you wouldn't personally push for his vote but were willing to go after him if that's "the way this day goes". I'd like to note that twice in this post you mentioned that you were willing to follow town in a lynch that you weren't going to push otherwise. To me, it feels like you are trying to gauge where the town is going to go, so you can be on that lynch. Also it feels like you are more than willing to leave Guardian in the game if we decided not to lynch him. I find this to be anti-town play. Leaving Guardian in the game with his history is something scum would want to do, as I pointed out in my posts when we were lynching Guardian.

Post #2066: You give a vote count and vote HH to "even him up with Guardian." To me this makes no sense at all. First, in your "game summary" post you barely mentioned HH, other than to say you agreed with some of his thoughts on TCS. But, as noted above, you said later you were willing to pursue a HH lynch if that is where the game went, and in #2066 you claimed that both HH and Guardian were high on your list, although you had never pointed out anything that you found suspicious about HH. As much as you had talked about Guardian, the "evening up" vote of HH doesn't make any sense... and Jack pointed it out in the next post. In post #2070 Guardian posted his "I'm drunk, weeeee, I'm town post" and shortly thereafter you changed your vote to Guardian.

I find the above occurrences to be very strange. Why the vote for HH? The unwillingness to vote for Guardian tells me two things. You wanted to make sure that going after Guardian on a LAL basis was not going to hurt you later, and you probably didn't really want to see Guardian lynched anyway, otherwise you would have voted Guardian instead of HH, who you hadn't talked about significantly in game. When Guardian posted his obnoxious drunk post you quickly jumped your vote to him. I think you saw those posts and felt Guardian was going to be the lynch, so you might as well be on it, and you also saw a way to avoid having to answer Jack's statement about switching your vote to HH.

The vote change is also inconsistent with what you are claiming now for your reason to switch to Guardian. In post #2143 you claim that "It wasn't until everything began falling into place that I realized how bad what you did really was. Yos2 and others who have more experience than I do realized it right away, and once I did the math I agreed." I am assuming that your latest post was referring to this reason for your switch on Guardian. I don't see this as being the reason you switched, there was no "convincing arguments by Yos2 and others" in between your vote of HH and vote of Guardian.

After your vote switch you were incredibly gung-ho about the Guardian lynch, and you posted a significant dialog with Guardian pointing out his bad play. It makes some sense , I guess, but considering you weren't engaging in that discussion before your vote I wonder what the motivation was. You claimed (to Guardian) at the time that you could have just said "Lynch him, LaL, yeyeyeyeyeye", but instead you were spending a lot of time trying to "explain" to him the error of his ways and help make him a better player. If you were really interested in that, why did you not do this before you voted and immediately after his "unclaim"? I get a bit of a "see how helpful I am being!" feel from these posts; kind of a buddying up to town in general.

All in all I find your treatment of the Guardian wagon to be scummy, and your play in general on day 3 to be pretty bad. I don't think your explanation of your switch wrt Guardian matches what you claim it to be, and I don't like that even though you stated several times that you thought there was a good possibility of Guardian being a SK and knowing that he lied about his doc claim, you still seemed more interested in a TCS lynch and in a HH lynch, a player you had barely analyzed at all.

Here is another, more concrete inconsistency in your play. In post #2206, you state that you

KNEW

Glork was a cop when he made his post #1985. But in post #2015, your general summary post, you

specifically state

that "Glork: Could be teamscum or SK. That being said he was rather pivotal to getting Sarcastro lynched, and with one of the doctors saying they protected him and a mafia no kill, we have too many inconsistencies." If you KNEW at the time that you made this post that Glork was a cop, why make this statement? Why mention Glork at all? You claim that HH was one person "at the top of your list", but you didn't mention him in this post. If someone who you really thought might be scum wasn't worth mentioning, why place someone in the list who you claim to know for sure was a cop, and then why put ambiguity on that person's role? I mean, I could see mentioning him and saying "I really thing Glork is pro-town because of the night kill not going through, or this and that and the other." Instead you say he could be teamscum or SK, but you just aren't sure and there are too many inconsistencies? Earlier in the post you said "Now assuming BM is town, we can suspect there are 2-3 scum on this wagon as well. Sarcastro has already been outed, so this leaves Glork, BT, TCS, and YB left (Guardian is excluded because of his low likeliness to be teamscum)." If you thought that Guardian's low likely hood of being teamscum should evict him from that list, how could you not have taken Glork off if you KNEW he was a cop? You could have easily done this without outing him: "Glork initiated the bandwagon so I don't find him scummy" or the like. All in all in this post, you seem to be leaving open the possibility of voting for him later; why would you do that if you knew he was a cop?

Either you are lying now and you had no idea that he was a cop when you made your summary post, or you

did

know he was a cop then, and didn't mind leaving suspicion on him as long as he hadn't claimed. Either way I find your play scummy, and I want a really good explanation for these events.

BTW, you still have to be held accountable for BM's play, which I found to be very strange anyway; don't think that just because you can't know his motivations for his actions means that you don't have to live up to inconsistency in his play. BM is one of the hardest players for me to get a read on, but it seems very obvious to me that he really wanted to stay in this game but simply couldn't keep up with how fast it was on day 1 and 2. I don't see BM playing that way if he was vanilla town: we already have both cops, you've stated yourself that there is probably not another doc in the game, the chances of a vig being in the game are minuscule (and I can't imagine BM not using it N1 if he was so excited about playing vig), and you have stated several times that you don't know if there are masons in the game or not, implying that you aren't a mason. If all of these are true then it leaves only 2 possible power roles left for Battle Mage to have been; unfortunately for you, both those roles are anti-town.

[BillyTwilight]

Vote:MBL

Fos:BT

If you live the night Glork, could you check BT out possibly?

Hello, OMGUS, how you doin'?

Your caught, squirming skum, Kinetic. But just for giggles, we'll go ahead a tear up your "rebuttal" post.

---

-.- Way to misinterpret everything here. You see, you actually made a grave error in your post. Basically, that most of my mistakes can be attributed to me having to read a 80+ page game in a little under 5 hours. My play is very inconsistent because between almost all my posts on Day 3 I was gaining a HELL of a lot of information, and for the most part I didn't exactly understand it all right away.

I'll try to walk you through it. This will take a while though because I've got to read your post then explain my reasonings and cite my own posts, and possibly posts going back over three days to explain my reasonings...

In addition I didn't exactly read the whole game in order. I was jumping around, target re-reading people I thought were suspect, and constantly trying to not lose what was going on with Day 3...

That includes what was going on with Guardian. The whole shit hit the fan while I was target re-reading Mana, and I had to start the fuck over with a new context, go back and re-read Glork and Guardian

again

, and had a bunch of other shit going on at the same time....

And I'm so annoyed that you post this so late at night >>. I don't want to leave this hanging, and I need to goto sleep. T.T

So, without further adu I'm going to attempt to just explain what was going through my head at the time of my posts and what was going on as best I can without actually finding the specific posts I was reading at the time -.-;

Here goes nothing:

Really, it's a bad idea to rush a post when your scum, Kinetic. Your way to sloppy and overexcited; you sound exactly like scum who thought they were looking clean, got hit with a bunch of evidence against them, and quickly tried to fire back without taking the time to compose a decent defense. The basic premise of your defense is that you were *confused* by the length of the game, and that you were reading and rereading everything out of context, or some such. This of course has nothing to do with your inconsistency regarding Guardian, and little to do with throwing suspicion on Glork, who you claim to have known was a cop already. Your simply squirming WAY too much.

...

Ok, there is actually a specific reason why I started to follow the HH lynch... mainly because Glork was pushing it. It was at about this time I started to suspect that Glork might be the cop. Here are my notes. I haven't yet added anything from this day (Day 4), and the last time I added anything was near the end of Day 3:

0-1 Cop Glork? Would explain why he thinks there are not many power roles left.

.....

12. Glork
I have a strong feeling he might be one of the remaining team scum
No.. He's a power role. Seems possible he's the cop.
Not a mason
Proof he might be the cop below

.....

Having re-examined inHim last night, I no longer believe that he is likely to be scum. I think I was just getting a bit to OMGUSy over his attacks on me. I still don't particularly like them, but I can kindasorta see where he was coming from. I've already put TCS in pretty much the exact same boat.

Glork is the cop!? Inhim is innocent/N2 Target.

Also glork, someone in the general discussion thread said that when you are pro-town you "reek of pro-town". You don't reek of pro-town this game. hmm?

Do you need me to start linking games where people found me scummy but I was town?

I find it rather absurd that you're taking one player's opinion and using it as law to meta me. For the record, the player who said that about me was Zindaras.
1) Zindaras and I have been playing mafia together since before either of us knew what MafiaScum was. I can say with the utmost confidence that there is no other player who can get more out of my posts to get a good read on me.
2) What one player (in this case, Zindaras) believes to be pro-town is not always what another player believes to be pro-town. This statement is proven by simple observation. If everybody thought that the same things were pro-town, all of the townies would agree on every lynch. The fact that there's so much debate in each and every mafia game, even amongst protown players, is testament to the fact that no two players find the same things pro-town or scummy.
**Case in point: My assessment of Albert's play in this very game. He alleged that shameless bandwagoning was a good way of hunting scum. I told him that he was going about it all wrong, that it takes a specific eye for reactions to bandwagons to make such tactics effective, and that even then it's a very dangerous game to play.
**Further case in point: The debate regarding BM's alleged "always scumminess." Some argue that BM is responsible for his actions in each game, regardless of what the meta towards him is. BM asserted that instead of just saying "oh, he's being scummy again, let's vote him" players should be looking at what makes him scum this time around as to the scummy town that he "usually" is.

I grow tired of this charade.

Either Glork or Jack is mafiascum. Explains the immediate Zindy kill. Jack didn't want Zindy confirming Glork or Glork didn't want Zindy outing him.

If you notice here, I'm not

entirely

sure that Glork is the cop. In my opinion there are two possibilities, Glork is either cop or scum. But I'm starting to lean toward cop direction. At this point I'm re-reading Glork, Jack, HH, and Guardian; as well as completely examining the lead-up to the near Guardian lynch on D2.

For the notes: they mean nothing, and can be easily composed at the time of your posting. I would like to point out that, other than the quoted part, they are in the same voice as your post itself is... that is excited, inarticulate, and certainly pretty sloppy. This tells me there is a good chance that you composed them on the spot, or modified existing notes that you did have in order to stay more in line with the story you are giving us.

Also, the reason that I wasn't so gung ho about getting Guardian, for the reason you stated: "Because he would mess up the game if he stayed." Simply, I didn't understand that position yet. If you looked further into the day, when I DID attack Guardian, I realized that. It was one of the main reasons I STAYED on the lynch. Even if Guardian was town, at that point him staying in the game hurt the town. I agreed with that point eventually, I just didn't understand it right away...

Right.... except, NO ONE RAISED THAT POINT UNTIL WELL AFTER YOU VOTED GUARDIAN. As far as I can tell, everything before you voted Guardian was with respect to what the likelyhood of guardian claiming Doc as scum or SK would be. No one made mention of how Guardian still being present in the late to end game could be extremely bad for town. So there are 2 complete inconsistencies here. 1.) You claim you switched your vote from HH to Guardian because other players convinced you that correct game theory required a Guardian lynch. No player made any posts giving this kind of argument between those two votes. 2.) You claim that the game theory that opened your eyes to Guardian needing to be lynched was how having guardian in the game would "mess up the game". I am assuming you mean in the endgame, the point I raised MUCH LATER, after you had already switched your vote. Of course this all means nothing anyway, because you gave your "reason" for voting Guardian when you placed the vote: "I don't like fake drunk Guardian. He's worse at lying when he is pretending to be drunk then when he is trying to be serious." No mention of a change of heart relating to game theory. No mention of why you suddenly found his lynch better than HH's, who you hadn't analyzed before anyway. Your current reasons for the vote switch are completely inconsistent with what actually happened in thread.

...

I'm leaning further toward Glork as possible cop now. In addition, if you noticed my wrap up of why I voted Guardian: Post #2088. I was re-reading Guadian's lynch on Day 2 when he made those posts. I was literally ON THE POSTS he made when he was "drunk" the first time. I noticed him breadcrumbing the doc claim and also him pointing out the breadcrumbs. That was what finally convinced me to vote for him.

So which is it, Kinetic? Did you have a change of heart about Guardian because of his drunk act or because you agreed with some game theory that hadn't been mentioned yet? More backpedaling on knowing Glork was a cop already; still inconsistent. Even if you only thought Glork *might* be a cop, you still had him listed as possibly teamscum or SK. You don't do that with players you think are town power roles

...

That is just not true. I wasn't sure about Guardian yet, so I was following what I thought at the time was GlorkCop. I didn't answer Jack's question for three reasons. 1) Yes, I was re-reading then and noticed Guardian's 'interesting' reaction. By the time I noticed Jack's question I already had unvoted and voted Guardian. 2) I didn't want to explain that I thought Glork was possibly the cop, and I thought he might have a guilty on HH. 3) To Jack he has been in a game that took 1.5 months per lynch, but I was reading the entire game in one sitting... things were just moving faster for me at the time. It didn't seem odd to me that I didn't wait weeks before voting someone new.

Lame. Your vote for HH was on Aug 31. You entered the game the 28th. You had already read the game well enough to make your rather lengthy summary post, which you made on the 30th, a full day before. I have no doubt that getting into such a long game would take a while, but you were obviously pretty familiar with it by this point, and you weren't "rereading in one sitting". You try to paint this like you had just sat down for the first time reading the game and were making your intial, game-entry posts. The HH vote was your 16th post of the game. Your switch to Guardian was less than an hour after that. No one posted any game theory in that time frame, but someone did post a short, 1 line post that would have been kind of hard for you to miss calling into question the reason for voting HH, and you abruptly changed your vote when Guardian *saved* you with his drunk posting. You also quickly decided to go against Glork, who you claim to know was a cop, and this was the sole reason for following in the HH wagon. And you also expect us to believe that, in this 80 page long game, you happened to be rereading the EXACT POST where Guardian first demonstrated his "inebriation defense" when Guardian pulled it again, which was another reason for you vote switch.

...

I basically was saying that I didn't understand to what extant having Guardian in the game late game might really fuck up the town. It wasn't until I started understanding that, and noticing how thoroughly he thought through this claim in advance of him actually claiming that I realized he needed to be lynched.

You fail. None of late game stuff had been brought up before you switched your vote.

...

When I started arguing with Guardian I had already decided 100% he was going to die, but I've been in more games with Guardian than anyone else on this forum. And so far in two of them I've felt really bad about lynching him >>. Yos can attest, in the first game (24 Mafia Mini, finished) I was scum, but the entire time I attacked him and picked him apart relentlessly. I really don't like being that kind of person, but at the time I felt like that was the right play, and it was. The scum won a flawless victory in that game.

Since then I had been trying to apologize to Guardian for the way I acted. Even after 24 mafia I made a funny jab at him in the Mini Theme Queue when he signed up for Ibby's game that I regretted. Ibby messaged me on aim and told me that Guardian actually took it personally, which I never intended. It was just a joke to me, and I said that in the thread after word saying that and even sent him a PM apologizing and asking him to please not drop out of Ibby's game because I was a jerk.

So now when I realized Guardian had to be lynched again, honestly I was trying to explain to him how much of a fuck up he made. I didn't think anyone else was going to at least do that for him, since he REALLY didn't understand exactly how big of a deal this was. So I wanted him to completely understand I really didn't

want

to do this, but for the betterment of the town I had to. Hell, that is among the reasons why I held my vote for as long as I did and tried to deny doing it...

GIANT, SAPPY, APPEAL TO EMOTION. "Look at me, I didn't want to vote Guardian because I was afraid I'd hurt this feelings, I just wanted to teach him to be a better player, poor, poor Guardian." Bleh.

...

Because I wasn't sure yet... Read above, those are my actual notes. Explains this "inconsistency" consistently. I wasn't

sure

Glork was cop until Mana came up dead. As soon as that happened I did this equation in my head:

Mana is the only doc. Glork was the scum target N2. Guardian wasn't the scum target because there is no 2nd doc. Glork cannot be mafia. Glork must be cop.

Perfectly consistent actually.

I'll admit, I was already

leaning

toward the Glork as a cop before this, but I was trying to force myself to remember he could also be mafia.

THEN WHY LIST HIM AS POSSIBLY SCUM OR SK. You still haven't answered this. If you REALLY thought that he even *might* be the cop, you don't list him as one of your main suspects. Especially since you didn't bother listing HH in that list, who you now claim you thought might be scum because Glork, who you thought was possibly a cop, was gunning for him.

...

Or... BM was a vanilla townie that didn't find this game very important because he wasn't a power role. He neglected it and didn't want to constantly catch up since it was moving so fast. The first time he was replaced he was annoyed/hurt, and decided to try and get back involved. He failed, and didn't try and stop being replaced the second time.

Meh. Your explanation isn't as good as mine. BM is in a ton of games here; if he was disinterested townie who wasn't keeping up with the game, I just don't see him fighting to keep from being replaced.

---

Since then you have FoSed me and claimed my attack of you was to try and *diffuse* the attack against MBL. You forgot that MBL wasn't posting at the time, and hadn't been for a while. Do you expect everyone to just sit back and wait for MBL? Don't you think it would be better to actively hunt scum, considering even if MBL is SK or mafia, that leaves at least 2 other players who are also scum. Lame. Then you tried to lead Glork into investigating me? Perhaps you don't want him investigating you on the off chance that he doesn't die tonight. Or perhaps you want to claim that Glork was killed because he was going to investigate me. I don't know, it's a weird play, and I think it was more motivated to try and make me look bad than on anything else.

You're caught scum. Die.

Vote: Kinetic

.

[BillyTwilight]

I don't like this Kinetic wagon. MBL is obviously trying to wrangle a lynch on an apparently weak player. I'm not sure what BT is up to, but his play is shoddy at best as town.

Thanks! No really, coming from you, this just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

[BillyTwilight]

Sarcasm aside, I still have my BM-town tells. I think that Kinetic is an inarticulate and bumbling player (no offense to him), but when it comes down to it I do not see him as scum. Period.

Actually, I've seen Kinetic be much more articulate then this. Interestingly, he was scum that game.

How close did he ever get to being caught in that game, Yos? Was he ever under significant pressure from several players in the game?

[BillyTwilight]

Good grief. After weeks of slow posting you guys put up 4+ pages on the day and a half that I am out of town. I'll read and get up a post sometime this afternoon.

[BillyTwilight]

...

I have never been given the role of SK as far as I can recall. Ask yourself if, given the chance to be an SK for the first time, you would choose to play it this high profile from the outset, essentially daring the mafia to NK you every night. Ask yourself why the mafia hasn't killed me by now if they really think my D1/D2 behavior was indicative of a true SK. Ask yourself if any SK in history has survived a 25-person game by utilizing such an in-your-face strategy.

MBL, you drew SK in Clue Mafia 1. I had a quick read of your posts in that game, and you mentioned a possible SK not once. I don't know if I can get a real meta from this game though, mainly because it was a closed setup. Since we didn't know there was a SK in the game, mentioning it would have been even more suicidal than here. You lurked completely through the first day of that game, and tried an all out attack on me on day 2. You were only lynched because of a guilty investigation on you by TCS. When the attack came up against you, you were extremely defensive and kind of insulting the rest of the players for having the audacity to be looking at you... but I kind of feel that this is something you'd do regardless of alignment against a wagon forming on you.

As of right now I really think MBL is town. I don't buy him being scum at all, and the case against him as SK comes down to him mentioning the SK a lot, the SK targeting players that had some kind of connection to him, and Glork's meta-game. I simply don't believe that MBL would expect to survive as a SK through the LyLO situation that a SK has to get through in order to win by drawing such a circumstantial case against himself as the SK. The only problem is if we get into a LyLO situation, then MBL almost has to be lynched, unless there is some concrete evidence against another player. I'd prefer not to see that.

MBL, would you be apposed to your lynch tomorrow if we manage to lynch teamscum today, to avoid any shenanigans in LyLO?

I'll have more with regards to Glork and some of the other players later; I have to prepare a PChem lecture now.

[BillyTwilight]

I think there is a slight chance, not significant. If he IS the SK, then he probably made the only play appropriate to save himself, knowing that more than likely he had already been targeted by scum. But I don't see a lot in his play that makes me think SK from before his claim... I was actually pretty convinced there for a while that he was teamscum.

Your answer to my question is telling. It wasn't the one I hoped to see. I don't think we can afford to have you around in LyLO, MBL. You've claimed that you don't have a read on who the SK might be, but you better get one, and for your sake it better be right. If we get into LyLO then we'd almost be forced to lynch you... I know I'd rather be burned by someone who set you up and took advantage on some silly mistakes you made in the first two days by talking about the SK too much than be burned by MBL-SK who basically broadcasted his role from early in the game to use it as a WIFOM defense in the endgame. I think it'd be much better not to have that complication in the endgame, and I think if you are town you'd feel the same way.

[BillyTwilight]

I understand your opinion, and I also believe that you need to get on the record with regards to a lot more people. We're a long way from lynch or lose, so let's hear your associations and complete list of suspicions.

Deflecting?

Sure, I like lists. Be warned; most of this is based off recent interactions; I don't feel like rereading the entire thread for each player left:

1. Shteven

: His arguments with Glork color my perspective of him, but right now I am feeling townie. I'd like to hear more from him in regards to Kinetic and MBL. I don't particularly like his post #2247; it's too noncommittal and I don't like noncommittal at this stage of the game. Why do you think Kinetic is scummy but not worth "building" a case against? If you find someone scummy you need to be probing for more information from them. I get the tone from his posts that he wants to go after TCS but is afraid to actually step up, make the case, and vote accordingly.

2. MrBuddyLee (MBL)

: I think you're more likely town than SK, and not likely scum at all. Sometimes I get the feeling that you lurk in bigger games until the later stages then come out full-firing, but I haven't played with you enough to know for sure. I do however think that you could be a serious distraction/problem to deal with in the endgame if we don't peg the SK, and soon.

5. The Central Scrutinizer (TCS)

: I'd like clarification on his post about the wagon on Kinetic looking opportunistic. With the exception of maybe MBL, no one else on the wagon or thinking that Kinetic looks scummy was in serious trouble of a lynch today. Couple that with the fact that you think Kinetic looks scummy as well bothers me. Because it was Glork you agreed with (with whom you have made it general policy to disagree with in this game so far) makes me wonder even more. I think TCS might be a good candidate for SK; he's tried to play as low profile as possible, and jumping in with Glork here might be to try and bolster the "MBL is SK" feeling floating around. If MBL is lynched and Glork dies tonight, TCS would probably feel pretty good about his chances as SK, especially since he could fairly easily resurrect a wagon against Kinetic later in the game.

6. Coron 6. inHimshallIbe 6. AlyG

: Not enough relevant, recent info for me to get a read on. I don't like his post #1950

at all

, especially considering he flaked shortly thereafter. He also was adamant about wanting Guardian killed after the Doc claim, which I thought was either really bad play or scummy play; he had to backpedal on that since Guardian effectively hammered Sarc. I think inHim is a more than average chance of being the gf, but there is not anywhere near enough there to throw a vote down on.

9. BattleMage 9. Kinetic

: Scum. Obv.

12. Glork

: 99% believe his claim; the only possibility that I can see is he is the SK, but I don't buy it, as played out above and because his play is consistent with cop-play. If he's trying to run a burn on us then more power to him, it'll be one of the greatest plays I have ever seen if he pulls it off. Unless he manages to live through a couple of nights and we don't get the goon in that timeframe, he's effectively confirmed to me.

16. Jack

: I don't like his play with regards to MBL. I agree with his stance on kinetic, but I can't decide if he's merely following (first Glork, then myself) or if he is convinced kinetic is scum. He might be the goon; no investigation of him yet, and his place against the Sarc wagon could be telling. But then again, he voted YB, who I thought (still think) was the superior play in that situation, so I don't really hold it against him. He defended Guardian (after the *unclaim*) at first and tried to keep the lynch on him from progressing on a LaL front. I've already said that it would have been good for scum to keep Guardian alive in the game, so this is a point against him, in my book.

17. Yogurt Bandit 17. Mole

: Really thought YB was scum day 1; now I don't know. When I brought my initial lengthy attack against him, MoS and Sarc were two of the first to jump on. I don't know if they were bussing or if they thought the case was strong enough to wrangle a mislynch out on a weak player. Since then he's been much, much quieter, but still shown a propensity to jump on the nearest wagon. If Guardian is to be believed, YB played like that as town. A lot of my misgivings about YB centered on his interactions with Guardian, and I thought they had a strong chance of being teamscum together. With Guardan officially town, my feelings about YB are muddled. Regardless, he was completely useless when it came to scumhunting; his vote for Sarc looked like another "save myself" vote, which he also did with Albert on day 1. Someone in the game has stated that there is no way YB is the SK, but I don't remember who. If you think that, why? I don't particularly feel him being the SK either, but I don't really know why I feel that, and I'd like to hear what everyone else thinks. The MoS kill could have easily been YB-SK. The fact that he has survived two near-lynches, and two known scum were on him for a lot of that period, makes the likelihood of his being teamscum go down, in my opinion, and that might be coloring my feel for him being the SK.

18. Nik Zero 18. Yosarian2

: With the exception of lurker hunting I've pretty much agreed with Yos2's play this game. He lurked for a while, but most of us have at some point this game. I think he's raised good questions so far, and I love his initial stance on Guardian's unclaim. He was kind of the first person to really call for a Guardian lynch; since scum would want to keep the confusion Guardian provoked alive as long as possible, I like his play in that instance.


Most scummy to least scummy:

Kinetic
inHIm/AlyG
TCS
YB/Mole
Jack
Shteven
MBL
Yos2
Glork

The only player I feel really good about is Kinetic, everyone else besides Yos2 and Glork is kind of middle of the pack and could move one way or the other depending on night kills, etc.

[BillyTwilight]

beanbagboy's posts are fascinating. Reading them just now, I'm tempted to find Kinetic(BM) and YB NOT members of the mafia team.

Glork, I don't think BM is scum. Granted, he is acting very stupid, but metagame wise he's like this in other games I'm in with him.

I really don't go for albert as scum. I think it's pretty much a null tell how he's acting, he does this all the time, or, at least it seems consistent with the other game I'm in with him. Granted, it's ongoing, but still, that's enough to keep my vote where it is.

I think his defense of YB is not so unfounded. I think it's possible that YB is just being n00by.

YB has turned himself around in my mind, from null tell noob to townish. Not definite, though, just seems townie.

What about those posts makes you think that? I can see scum protecting scum in either case. On a quick reread of BBB, I see a lot of sucking up to Glork and not a lot in the way of scumhunting. He jumped back and forth on voting YB and calling him noob town, and the same with BM (jumped back and forth, saying maybe he was scum, maybe that's just the way he played). All in all I get a very tentative feel from BBB, like he was afraid to step on toes by going hard after any player, including Albert. If that's the case I don't find his "interpretation" of peoples play to be very good. He's simply too noncommittal on anyone, which makes gaging their alignment based on his play very difficult.

[BillyTwilight]

Glork, I'll answer your question soon, but there are some things I'd like to ask of other players first.

Jack, you asked repeatedly for Kinetic to post his notes for the game a couple of pages back. He did so in post #2330. What do you think of them?

Kinetic, do you normally take notes when playing? If so, and if you have any available, would you mind posting notes from any other

completed

game you've been in (preferably one you replaced into, but any will suffice, regardless of alliance in that game)? If you can do this I don't mind you only posting a portion of notes from a completed game, or linking to an after game discussion where you posted some notes, etc.

[BillyTwilight]

Btw, I find all of this "are your notes legit or faked" discussion ridiculous.

• Nobody is going to be able to prove one way or another whether the notes were "faked" or not.
  
• I know several players, myself included, who take notes as both town and scum, so the existence of notes proves nothing either way.
  
• There's nothing to stop Kinetic from faking "notes" from previous games.
  
• I do not take notes in all of my games when I am protown, but I do take notes in some of them. I do not take notes in all of my games when I am scum, but I do take notes in some of them.

I refer to or mention notes sporatically in some of my games, and as far as I can remember, nobody has ever

once

asked me to verify whether I had actually been taking notes or not.

I would like to know what anybody hopes to accomplish by interrogating Kinetic about his notes in this game. What distinguishing factors are you looking for that might indicate whether Kinetic is protown or whether he is dirty scum?

**This question can wait until after Kinetic has responded to BillyTwilight, but I absolutely demand answers for this. I really am starting to feel that this "argument" is distracting, and that it's a pretty sorry excuse to make Kinetic look bad. The end.**

Patience, Glork.

I hear it's a virtue, or some damn thing.

[BillyTwilight]

Kinetic, do you normally take notes when playing? If so, and if you have any available, would you mind posting notes from any other

completed

game you've been in (preferably one you replaced into, but any will suffice, regardless of alliance in that game)? If you can do this I don't mind you only posting a portion of notes from a completed game, or linking to an after game discussion where you posted some notes, etc.

Actually, I normally don't. I'm pretty sure I mentioned that before I posted them, but I only took notes for this game because it was SO long that I didn't want too many things to mess up in my head. It was a lot of information to take in and I wanted to catch up quickly.

I normally don't take notes for anything, college classes for instance, I have a rather good memory recall and I get good enough grades without all the extra hassle. Also, I'm really not good at typing/writing and listening/watching at the same time.

All the other games I've replaced into (1 I think...) were under 10 pages at the time and I didn't really need notes.

This was a special case.

That's fine, I didn't really need them for the point I am going to make anyway. I've composed a monstrous post analyzing your notes (regardless of

others

feeling that it's a completely useless waste of energy), and I am hoping for Jack to post soon with regards to my question so I can post this later tonight.

[BillyTwilight]

Ahh, screw it. Jack hasn't posted since early Sunday morning; I don't feel like waiting on him to show up to get this out there. Considering he was adamant about you posting them in a post at 1:54am Sunday morning, you posted them at 1:59am, and he posted at 2:02am in response to MBL and had nothing to say on the matter, I am going to assume that he didn't find anything in the notes he thought meant much. I wanted to hear his thoughts on them specifically for a lot of the same reasons Glork was asking about a few posts ago. I found it intriguing that he was looking for something more from you, but never had another comment about it. Maybe he simply hasn't had a chance to post again in this game; he was fairly active in a couple of other games on Monday, though.

---

First, I want to address Glork's question about *note-fishing*. I originally had no use or desire for Kinetic to post his notes. In my post #2255 when addressing the short section of his notes that he used in his defense, I stated:

For the notes: they mean nothing, and can be easily composed at the time of your posting. I would like to point out that, other than the quoted part, they are in the same voice as your post itself is... that is excited, inarticulate, and certainly pretty sloppy. This tells me there is a good chance that you composed them on the spot, or modified existing notes that you did have in order to stay more in line with the story you are giving us.

And as far as I was concerned that was all I needed to say about the matter. I felt at the time that he simply faked the notes as part of his defense. Jack kept pressuring Kinetic to post the rest of his notes, and Kinetic's delay in doing so made me feel all the more that they were faked.

When he finally posted them, I skimmed through them, thought "bullshit", and moved on. Tonight I actually had a chance to go back and read through Kinetic's play again, and more carefully picked apart the notes he posted. I felt like there was a good chance that there might have been a continuity issue with the statements in the notes and actual events, something that would clearly point to him fabricating the notes.

A couple of bad points struck me at first. They were mostly composed of a list of the living players, with a few mentions of scummy vs. not scummy and possible power roles, etc. Then a list of the killed players and lynched players with the wagons that lynched those players and the alliances of the known people on those wagons. Lastly there were a very few quotes from the game, the post that inHim originally made that Kinetic used to draw his original suspicions from, a short quote with evidence for Glork=cop, and the posts of Jack going back and forth with Glork and Kinetic's suspicion that Jack and/or Glork were scum because of the Zindy kill.

The latter part bothered me, because they were the only quotes in the notes, and they had all been used by Kinetic in thread before. It struck me as odd that part of my attack against him was his interaction with Glork, and he happened to have a quote in his notes to use as a defense; not only did he have that quote, but he also had a quote showing he was still wishy washy on what he believed about Glork, which was also essential to his defense because he wanted to explain how he could have thought Glork might be a cop and still list him as possible scum. I thought it very fortuitous that the exact quotes he needed to defend his position were almost the only quotes that he had in his notes at all. So I dug deeper, trying to find anything that could be clear indication of a screw-up or cover-up that would be the more damning evidence that apparently Glork and others were looking for.

First of note: the timestamp.

The New C9 Edit/Delete this post Delete this post
( Posted: Wed Aug 29, 2007 2:50 am )

I went and played around with the Notes function on the boards to look how it reacted to editing and cutting/pasting. When you create a note, it is titled and timestamped. If you view the note and select it including the title, copy and paste, it gives the exact timestamp format exhibited in Kinetic's post. If he had fabricated the notes I don't think that he would have bothered to do this, or known that the notes would have worked this way unless he checked it. This gives me good reason to believe that he does have notes for this game, and not completely fabricated on the spot. The time also corresponds to approximately 4 hours after he joined the game. When editing the notes I found that the timestamp doesn't change. Although this could be edited after pasting them into a new window, I don't see why he would do that, or think to do that. This tells me that he did in fact start taking notes upon entering the game. Not a big deal, but it does give some validity to his notes.

Next, I started digging into the notes themselves, and cross-referencing them with the posts that he was making when he entered the game . They are very difficult to read, almost stream-of-conscious, but that is to be expected if someone is reading, rereading, and taking notes at the same time. I did notice one thing I hadn't in my previous Kinetic analysis; Kinetic's post #1988 (His answer to LML's quiz) had Glork/Mana as being the likely remaining scum. This is of course in direct contradiction to his post #2206, where he claims that he *knew* Glork was the cop, claiming that it "just seemed really obvious to me personally." BINGO. I felt like I had him here, and almost posted it then, but I decided to dig further, and what I found really troubled me.

First, Kinetic's post #1988 was made a mere 6 hours after he entered the game. There is no way he finished and digested an 80+ page thread in that time frame. Second, his entry on Mana has Mana as possible scum at first. Again, it's all very stream-of-conscious, and really difficult to tell chronologically what went where, but I felt it was consistent with his position at the time. Note that at this point Mana had not yet claimed. When Mana did claim, Kinetic added "Doctor???, etc." to his notes.

If one ignores the fact that Kinetic claims to have known Glork was the cop at the time Glork made his post #1985 then his play is perfectly consistent with his notes.

There are some other points of interest here. Take for instance his notes on TCS. He states, "Inhim noted a clear consensus on TCS's movements on Day 1 during Day 2. Since I know BM was town it leads more credence to his theory." Perfectly legitimate with Kinetic's following up on inHim's orignal theory and his intiital vote of TCS and breakdown of the game at the time. In his post #2015 he basically gives his game summary, but one thing I hadn't noticed was that he claimed he still had 10 pages left of the game. I have already pointed out several times that by this time he claims to have known Glork was a cop but still listed him as possible scum, and he didn't mention HH at all, who he later voted for. If you ignore the fact that he claimed to have known Glork was a cop at the time then this post is also fairly consistent with his notes.

Kinetic's post #2059 was made 17+ hours later. In it he expressed a willingness to lynch HH and Guardian if the town wanted to. After this post Kinetic never mentions Glork and possible scum together again. I think it is at this point that Kinetic has actually entered the evidence in his notes making him think Glork is cop, contrary to what he stated before.

So get to the motherfucking point, Billy.

Unvote: Kinetic

Notes can be fabricated, sure, but I think if he fabricated these he did one giant hell of a job. Too many little things, for instance:

3. HungryJoe 3. Zindaras - Townie - Shot - Night 2
Not killed for something HJ did. Killed by Glork since Zindy knows Glork so well? Would also help fit JDodge with Glork scum...

I think JDodge is a typo and should be "Jack". I don't think he'd think as scum to forge this kind of "authenticity watermark" into his notes. When I see that I see Kinetic writing notes, thinking he found a connection between Jack, Glork, and Zindy-dead (which he later talks about in his notes), and accidentally wrote JDodge. I don't see him forging things like this, and I find them to largely verify that the notes are genuine and thus that he is telling the truth with respect to his case. I think they point to him genuinely scumhunting when he wrote them; true, he could still be the SK, but then I don't know if he'd think to edit his notes and sporadically mention "possible SK" with players. I especially don't see him adding the "High unlikeliness of being SK" to his YB entry.

To me, if these notes are fake he made a huge effort to produce a very, very good forgery. If he is scum he took a giant risk in producing fraudulent notes where any misstep could have proven to be his doom; I don't see missteps. I see notes that at first look very bad for him, and that certainly don't decently defend his position, but upon very close inspection appear genuine and actually make a significant argument for him being town. Scum pulling that off has got to be close to impossible; given the fact that Kinetic's original defense against me was laden with continuity issues, very sloppy, and too hasty, I don't think that if he were scum he'd be able to compose something this clever.

With regards to the timing on his Glork-cop knowledge. I think Kinetic felt before Glork claimed that Glork was the cop. He didn't know for sure, but he was excited thinking that he might have deduced something from Glork's play; Glork is a good, usually subtle player, and he thought he might have read one of the better players in the game. When Glork claimed, Kinetic was ecstatic that he was correct, and posted a sort of hollow boast that he "KNEW" Glork was a cop from way-back-when. He might have had a feeling, but I don't think at the time he really was sure, and if he was wavering at the time between Glork=cop and Glork=scum as his (in my opinion) authentic notes seem to indicate, his play in regards to Glork makes perfect sense.

Not trying to offend Kinetic, but I don't think your dedicated enough to pull off something like those notes if you were scum. Hell, I don't think I'd believe anyone in this forum would be able or willing to do that, considering upon precursory reading they look (IMO) more damning than helpful, and scum would be relying on someone (like me) to spend far too much time trying to pick out every little detail in them in order to find them to be a town-tell.

I feel very strongly now that Kinetic is not teamscum. He could still be the SK, but I don't find this likely either. I can see the whole thing being completely genuine with the exception of him adding some references to Guardian being SK, or other player being SK, but I don't think he'd think to add a reference to YB

not

being the SK. Again, if it is fake, I'll want to shake his hand at endgame wither or not he wins and he deserves whatever kind of award could be given to him for the play.

---

I'm going to take some time to regather my thoughts on this game and look at where my other suspicions might lie. Glork, at this point I think I'd want you to investigate Jack or Mole. BTW, I'm tired of being in games where the replacements don't bother to play (happening in another ongoing game for me). I also would strongly consider investigating Shteven at this time (wish you had done it before, tbh).

[BillyTwilight]

Glork: I would choose Jack first, Yos second as your investigations targets.

BT: I don't have the energy to respond... or really anything else... I'm sorta speechless really.

I sorta feel like Grissom, tbh.

[BillyTwilight]

I've been trying to figure out what the most logical scum-pursuit is right now. I feel that we have 1 shot at the SK at this point, before we have to almost exclusively look for remaining mafia. If we lynch town today we can go at the SK one more time (assuming that no mafia are NK'd), but then we'd have to rely on the SK killing mafia or not submitting a kill to get through the game. If we miss today then we are very, very close to LyLO and we have to pretty much ignore the SK until we finish the mafia.

This really, really bothers me, because I've already made an argument that MBL needs to be lynched before we get into an obvious LyLO situation with only the SK left. If we don't lynch MBL today then we might be heading for exactly that situation. However, I really don't feel that MBL is scum at this point, so I'm in kind of a bind.

I think I'd prefer a TCS or Jack lynch to MBL, right now; but I think we need to make a decision regarding MBL now. If we leave him in the game we need to decide if we are going to let the WIFOM case against him determine wither or not we lynch him in LyLO. (Sorry, Glork, I really feel the case against MBL comes down to him mentioning the SK and the SK's targets a lot the first 2 days. This could be him trying to set up a WIFOM defense and risk being NKed by the mafia throughout the game or, perhaps even more easily, the SK taking advantage of MBL's constant talk about the SK to set up a pretty good frame job - the latter would be pretty standard play for an SK. I'm not ready to lynch him on a metagame read; I much prefer more in-game evidence to meta reads anyway.)

I need a more careful reread of TCS and Jack, and maybe inHim, at this point, but they much more closely fit the typical profile for a SK than MBL; remaining relatively quiet and trying to survive till endgame. I began to become very suspicious of Jack when he claimed to be sure that MBL was the SK but still wanted a lynch of Kinetic. I don't think that he could really make the argument that leaving the SK in the game and thus the potential for 2 kills each night was a good idea, and if he was convinced that MBL was the SK then he should have been voting him. His insistence on Kinetic posting his notes and then doing nothing with them makes me feel he was fishing for something else to hang Kinetic with. I'll do a more careful analysis and post later.

[BillyTwilight]

Sorry guys, I've let this game slip off the radar. I'll give a read of the last few pages and have something substantial later tonight, hopefully.

[BillyTwilight]

I'm curious as to why you want to goon hunt, Yos? Isn't the correct play to attempt to find the SK and lengthen the game as much as possible?

Glork, I looked at your list in post #2519, and I don't understand why White is in the "refuse to lynch at any point" list. Yos2 has seemed very protown to me, and I see no reason to lynch him any time soon, but Jack's play seemed to be a pretty good match for mafia, and certainly not non-SK play, to me. I'd list Jack/White (see what I did there?) in my top three suspects ATM. I simply don't understand why you and Yos both seem to find his play overtly pro-town.

My top three suspects currently are TCS, Shteven, and White. I think all three have play that is consistent with SK or mafia. I'd prefer a lynch of one of them, but I am willing to lynch MBL as well. Although I still don't really think we'd be lynching scum, his lynch could be very helpful for us in the long run, eliminating a safety net for a SK later assuming he isn't the SK, which I have been having doubts about recently. I've felt a good deal worse about MBL since his attack against Yos, which seemed to be reaching a long ways for me. Still, I think his chances of being SK are only slightly more than random, but the added benefit of getting rid of a WIFOM problem down the line is a good thing, IMO.

Glork, if you had to put a % number on MBL being the goon, what would it be?

I also want to hear a lot more from inHim's replacement before we move on with the day. I still find inHim's play scummy, but I want CtD to have a chance to post more before including him in my preferred lynch category.

[BillyTwilight]

Hey guys, sorry I haven't been around. I had a death in the family, and had to go out of town and away from Net access for a couple of days.

White should be lynched. Jack's play certainly didn't convince me of him being town, and White's play since replacing has been less than stellar. However, I don't really see that lynch happening today, unless Glork and Yos have a change of heart. I'm nearly equally satisfied with a Shteven lynch. His post #2605 seems like a desperate attempt to deflect away from the fact that Glork had just voted him,

Vote: Shteven

Shteven, what is the point of your question about who Yos would like to see investigated, and why didn't you just look for the answer yourself?

[BillyTwilight]

I am not liking the current reasoning for the wagon on TCS. It's a distraction orchestrated by Shteven and White. Guys, think for one second and ask why TCS as scum would specifically ask to let himself be the hammer. I understand that his request was a strange one, but TCS does off the wall things when he gets bored with a game. Recently he claimed as a cop in one of the Clue games because he was bored, with very little pressure on him (I don't think he even had a vote at that time). Point is it's not atypical of his play as scum

or

town, and I don't think it's a scumtell at this point.

In fact, I am much more suspicious of Shteven and the others for trying to make a big deal out of this. This feels a lot like Shteven trying to make a big deal out of Glork asking scum to kill MBL when night gets here as well.

One of these three need to be our lynch today. Equally happy with a White or Shteven lynch, and Rogueben's last post brought up reservations of yore about YB.

[BillyTwilight]

Sorry guys, I've had a hell-week at work and grading (I think I've put in close to 90 hours of time in the lab in the last week... ugh) and haven't been keeping up with mafia lately. This is a quick post to catch myself up a little.

I'm torn. I don't know who I like better for a lynch. My gut tells me White is the best lynch, but my mind tells me Shteven is the way to go. Yos, I know you asked me about Shteven, and I'll try to get into that later tonight, but briefly, you pointed out that I was getting a townie feel about him in my last "list" post. That entire post was colored by my feeling at the time that Kinetic was scum. Kinetic is pretty much town in my book now, so a lot of my feelings about who is what have changed since then. More importantly, I don't like Shteven's play in the last 4 or 5 pages, from asking for everyone to place a vote (I don't see why a townie would want to gauge the overall feeling of the players in the game - I do however, see this being something scum would really like to know to adjust their strategy) to his interaction with TCS and Glork recently. I think there are plenty of points against Shteven from earlier in the game as well; you'll notice that I have voted him on again and off again throughout the course of the game. Right now I feel that he and White are our best opportunity for nailing scum.

Later tonight I should have time to reread the last weeks worth of posts and actually put something together. I'll try and clarify my feelings about Shteven and White and answer any questions that people have then.

[BillyTwilight]

This is the second deadline I've missed in less than two weeks. I got to do better.

Can someone explain to me Jack/White's town tells? The post at the end of yesterday doesn't mean anything to me.

I still think you're town and would rather sacrifice myself than lynch someone i'm so sure is town. Besides, you've got a much better grasp on this game than I do. Therefore I will not be putting you at 5.

I don't see a need for this post. If I know I'm town and someone votes for me in such a fashion who I also think is town, I try to dissuade them of the vote, not tell them I'm not going to vote for them. If I'm not going to vote for them I just don't vote for them. I read it as an appeal to emotion; "Shteven, I'm behaving like a good townie and I think

you

are a good townie too; maybe you should rethink your vote for me." I don't really see how you guys are getting a read from that post at all. I see it something as possible from either town or scum, and I had a scum-feel from White and Jack before. I'd like MBL to explain more carefully why White seems so townish to him at this point. Yos too.

I don't like MBL's posts so far today. Process of elimination is not something I'm interested in, especially when he leaves himself off the list. I've seen MBL go for a kill as scum before when he smells blood, and his first posts of the day read like that. I'll be having a more thorough reread of MBL today.

I think Rougeben is a good lynch for the day, right now. I need a reread of YB and his interactions with the confirmed players so far.

The Kinetic kill doesn't make sense... I felt Kinetic was town yesterday, and I don't understand why the SK (who I assume is scum hunting at this point) killed him. There were a few players who remained suspicious of Kinetic yesterday after what I felt was pretty good evidence he was town. I want to find the players who most likely thought Kinetic was scum.

In short, MBL's play worries me, I don't think White is nearly as confirmed as some of you guys think, and I need a real reread, which I simply haven't had time to do recently. I'll try to get that in tonight and post something more substantial tomorrow.

I had to put this post on the backburner and do some things in the lab, so all of the above is based on after White's post #2772. I look at the newer posts with my selective reread tonight.

[BillyTwilight]

Long post coming....

Rereading this game is a bitch.

[BillyTwilight]

All right, we should have a better grip on this game than it seems we have. Here are the remaining players, classified in investigated/uninvestigated:

UNINVESTIGATED

MrBuddyLee
Billy Twilight
White
Rogueben

INVESTIGATED

Yosarian2
The Central Scrutinizer
CrashTextDummie



Here are the kills:

SHOT

JDodge
Zindaras
ManaSpryte
Glork

CHAINSAWED

SpectrumVoid
Mastermind of Sin
Autumn Evenings
Hackerhuck
Kinetic

Night 0 kills probably aren't more than random, so for now I am going to ignore them. For the most part the Mafia kills make sense, with the doc and cop kills. The Zindaras kill doesn't make a lot of sense, and I can't really explain it.

The SK kills are a little easier, is one assumes that the SK has been mafia hunting. MoS and Hackerhuck make sense from this perspective, however, the MoS kill could have been coincidental. Perhaps the SK didn't like MoS's little game/questionnaire he posted near the end of day 1 and thought it was a better than random chance of hitting scum with the MoS target. I'm not sure what the Autumn Evenings kill was for... my guess is the SK was setting up an MBL frame since AE had harped on MBL being the SK during that day.

The Kinetic kill is also interesting, and might be the key to the game. Going into the night there were 5 uninvestigated players left. I think it's safe to say that the SK was hunting mafia by this point, so the kill makes since if two things are met. I think the SK had to have some feeling that Kinetic was scum

and

that the SK is one of the investigated players. If that is the case he is in a win/win situation. He has a shot at nailing the mafia goon and he lessens the pool of uninvestigated. Assuming that we lynch from that pool (as Yos and others have been pointing out to be the best play) then he increases the chance that the lynch will nail mafia. I think, considering the high likelyhood of today's lynch coming from that group, that the SK would really think twice about lowering the number of players in that pool

if he was also one of those players

. It would be too risky to raise the possibility that town would lynch him instead of the goon.

So, I think the SK is one of TCS, CTD, and Yos. Of these, I think that TCS is town. His "gambit" at the end of yesterday only really makes sense if he was really planning to do what he asked to do. It is possible that he planned to do exactly what he did, that is, prepare his gambit, claim he wanted to hammer, then not be around for the hammer vote and claim what he did today in order to make himself look more town. However, his request came BEFORE the deadline was set. When he made it, there was the distinct possibility that we would decide to lynch, run the vote up to L-1 and ask TCS to hammer and explain his desire to be the hammer vote. All in all, too risky of a play for him to make as SK, and definitely something I can see TCS-town doing.

So, clearing TCS, that leaves Yos and CTD as SK. So analysis of those players forthcoming.

CTD (mostly InHim):

Coron only had 2 posts in early day 1. Not enough to really consider for this analysis. On a reread, InHim should have been getting a lot more pressure than he did during his time in this game. His voting pattern is brutally bad. He voted for, in order: Shteven, TCS, Guardian, ABR, TCS, Guardian, Glork, ManaSpryte, and YB. So he never placed a vote on either of the confirmed goons. His FoS's are more interesting however: MoS and Jack.

Further analysis-

InHim entered the game with a RandomVote on Shteven and continued with initiating an attack against Glork. This is a little more significant with Glork now confirmed town. Given Glork's reputation on this site, it makes sense for scum to early on try and discredit Glork's play if they know he isn't part of the scumgroup. His first mention of YB is post #431, where he brushes aside YB's flip-flopping vote on BM. His next post is a vote of TCS for TCS' suggestion to not worry about untimely lynches until the vote count reaches abut 8 - considering the lynch vote was 10 at the time I pretty much agree with TCS, I find there to be little basis for this vote, although I can see town making it. The next post he adds Guardian to his "scummy list" for fence sitting with respect to BM. This is odd considering he had just given a pass to YB for similar actions. His next post finishes his reread and gives some general comments, specifically mentioning Jack and MBL as likely town. He also names Glork, Guardian, and TCS as a group that would have at least one scum player in it. He keeps up an attack against Glork for a couple of more posts, then vote hops to Guardian in post #575. In context this hop doesn't make a lot of sense, because his previous posts (#571 and #573) were about Glork.

More of the same, until post #837. He jumps back several pages and addresses MoS's post #796, in which MoS voted YB. He basically says "I don't think you are scum, MoS, but you are on the wrong track," and then he FoS's MoS. Which is just strange. By his own admission he doesn't FoS much, and he just got through saying he didn't think MoS was scum, yet he FoSed him anyway? I think this is scum directing scum.

Continuing: He addresses MoS's rebutal post #849 (which is a weak rebuttal, anyway) by saying that MoS was "wandering off to start a wagon no one is interested in". He also makes a habit at the end of day 1 of being agitated with how long the day is going, and generally seems to be impatient for night starting. His post #926 comes after my massive post against YB. Instead of saying why he thinks my post is inaccurate (which he never attempts to do) he attacks HungryJoe for voting YB.

You guys just can't end a Day...[/agitated]

Wow. Um, Billy. That's a pretty freakin' awesome post. I think I'm sold on YB being scum here (not like it takes much convincing, the way he's been acting), but unless YB comes up as scum, I'm not sure that Guardian is scum here. He's under a lot of scrutiny, sure, but I don't think he's that unsensible, and while he's obviously something to watch, I still think TCS looks a lot worse than Guardian, really.

Anywho, I'm still quite convinced of YB at this point.

Vote : YogurtBandit

On the brighter side, HungryJoe also seems to be scum.

BTW: selling my vote to the highest bandwagon. Inquire inside.

He continues on this pathway of claiming he will vote for the person with the most votes, even though that might not be where his highest suspicion lies. He continues on for several post mostly complaining about the day being too long, mingled with calling Glork scum and asking a vig to kill Glork in the night. Finally he changes his vote to ABR, based on "more people I think are scum are on YB's wagon"; his vote is ultimately the vote that gets ABR lynched. I'd also like to note that his logic here is circular. Some of the people that he had called scummy he claimed to find suspicious because they voted YB. He then refuses to vote YB because some of the people on his wagon are people he thinks are scummy. It's a strange way of explaining why his vote doesn't end on YB, instead of just saying "I don't find YB scummy" or the like. He complains more about how long the day ends and then... well, the day ends.

MoS dies in the night. Zindy (HungryJoe) also dies in the night.

InHim's first post quotes his own post where he FoSed MoS. This is blatantly trying to make it look like he was onto MoS in day 1, when really he was much more going after Glork, Guardian, TCS, and to some extent HungryJoe. He uses MoS's play to highlight his continued suspicion of Guardian, Glork, and TCS. It should be noted that HJ was voting YB. If YB and InHim were scum together, that might make some sense for wanting to kill HJ, although by the time the night phase started I think Zindy had already replaced in. Maybe they thought Zindy would try to justify HJ's stance with regards to YB, and do a better job of it than HJ had done so far. Maybe they simply didn't want a fresh set of eyes looking over the thread and finding connections that everyone else had missed. Hard to say. He ends it with a vote on TCS.

His next real post is a vote of Guardian. A couple of things of significance. His vote is in post #1526; Guardian had voiced his intent to claim in post #1521, strongly hinting that he had a power role, and asking for no more votes but saying he would claim if he reached L-1. We all know how the Guardian claim turned out, but it's important that InHim had no way of knowing that Guardian was lying at the time. He forced the claim anyway, called Glork's vote on Guardian bussing, and after Guardian's claim insisted that we lynch a claimed power role anyway. At this point, not only was Guardian claiming power and voting InHim, he was also seemed to be becoming suspicious of Sarcastro. InHim-scum would have had plenty of reasons to want him out of the game, and went for it, hoping that someone would step in and hammer Guardian while Guardian was still at L-1.

When the lynch doesn't happen he makes a ridiculous attack against Glork. In post #1543 he attacks Glork for "covering up for his scumbuddy, Guardian". When Glork rebuts this he attacks Glork for trying to "set-up" Guardian for a lynch. He plays both sides of the deck, which is just ridiculous, and then switches his vote to Glork. Inhim then spends the next several posts continually flopping around on Guardian and Glork. One second he thinks they are scum together, then he thinks Glork may be the SK and Guardian is mafia, etc, etc. Then we reach post #1693 where InHim over-reacts to one vote from Yos. Other players had been narrowing down on InHim, but Yos placed the first vote, and InHim immediately tries to placate the situation, asking what he has to do to stay away from a vote.

A little more defense of his attack on Guardian and desire to lynch a claimed doctor, and then post #1748 where he congratulates YB on a post and says "I think YB seems townish here" - which is a little odd since he had pretty much ignored YB for the majority of Day 2 and never seemed like he was suspicious of YB in the first place. And a little more odd considering what happened at the end of the day.

Around this time people start advocating a Manaspryte lynch, and InHim jumps right in with post #1762. This is

extremely

odd considering he hasn't mentioned Mana at all yet, and he ignores all of his "top" suspects in doing so: Glork, TCS, Guardian. He seems to have given up getting one of them lynched and is very very nervous about how precarious his position has gotten in the game up to that point - his push for those lynches was starting to get him in trouble. The very next post YB follows suit and votes ManaSpryte.

People jump on YB for this unprovoked vote (although interestingly no one attacks InHim for the same thing). Within a couple of posts InHim has reversed directions again and votes YB in post #1771. When questioned about it he basically balks at why he thinks YB is scummy... but he says that if YB is scum we should basically lynch Shteven next. However, instead of explaining why he voted for someone who he thought was "townish" in post #1748, he continues to say that Guardian and Glork should die. From this point on he seems to just act like he always thought YB was scum (see post #1789 - the tone implies that YB is a scummy player, and he groups him with Guardian who he has been hammering on for the whole day). He continues to attack Guardian and Glork for the rest of the day, although he is voting YB.

Shortly after this the wagon on Sarc picks up. Jack unvotes YB and votes InHim, and InHim asks him to vote YB again. At this point InHim is high on a YB lynch (very suddenly, considering he tried to derail one on day 1 and pretty much ignored YB till late day 2). His posts stop here for day 2.

Sarc is lynched, no night kill for mafia.

InHim's last real post of the game, #1950. He congratulates town on getting Sarc, backs off of Guardian, and makes a half hearted attempt to provoke more Glork-hunting, then drops out of the game, very, very early in day 3.

AlyG replaces, but doesn't post. CTD replaces and has a read-in-chunks approach to getting into the game, and mostly doesn't get called on InHim's play (yet). I'll concentrate on his Jack and YB/RB analysis, as that is what I think is key here. His first post has both listed as probably town, and by the end of his analysis they both take different directions. He claims to be suspicious of YB dropping of the planet before he was replaced, but ends with thinking YB is townish, but wanting to vote White. Since then he has commented on RB's not posting at the end of the day yesterday, but mostly still seems to be leaning towards a White lynch.

There is more in depth analysis to be done with InHim and CTD, but I think this is the general gist and I have neither the time nor patience to continue with it now.

Next, Yos.... (cries):

Replaced Nik Zero, whose only post was a Bandwagon vote of Yohan.

Starts off with a Glork vote (wow, there has been a lot of that in this game). Back's up BattleMage's play in the early game and gets in a FoS of Guardian. Later he votes and gets on Albert's wagon. He has an argument with me about Lurker-hunting. He confirm votes Albert a couple of times. His vote doesn't move around very much at all, which very well might be Yos playing it safe. Albert was a fairly nice player for someone to park their vote on on day 1. He backed up xyzzy's

terrible

attack against Albert, which amounted to "Albert always seems scummy but in this game he seems scummy in a different way than usual", and then backed that statement up with... nothing at all. And Yos, who is an intelligent, reasonable player, takes xyzzy's side in that argument?? For most of day 1 he seems to pretty much ignore MoS. If he is the SK then killing MoS should have left relatively few ties to himself.

Day 2 starts, and he also votes Guardian and continues looking at Glork. When Guardian claims he immediately unvotes. He doesn't vote again till he votes InHim some posts later. His vote stays parked there till the end of day 2. Day three he votes Guardian and that's that. He FoS's Kinetic on day 4. WELL into day 4 he finally votes Rogueben, based almost solely on process of elimination. At the end of the day he jumps to Shteven, after asking for a case against Shteven and never really getting a good one, which I found strange at the time. I had made some points against Shteven, but Yos' jump seemed a little... forced... to me. It was shortly after the clarification that with the current votes on players there would be a no lynch, something the SK wouldn't want to happen.

So, the vote tally: Glork, Albert, Guardian, InHim, Guardian, Rogueben, and Shteven. For the most part these are all very safe votes to have out there, with perhaps the exception of Glork. However, Yos-SK would probably want to be a little confrontational, just not enough to get caught up in anything. His play is MUCH closer to an SK that MBL's play has been.

I might do a much more thorough analysis of Yos' play later, but for now general trends and feelings will have to do. Note that Yos hasn't done a lot of "hardcore" analysis and scum-hunting, preferring to do mathematical work that is harder to get called on. Also note that he was still slightly suspicious of Kinetic yesterday, which is something I think the SK would have to be.

So, my feeling in the game so far. RB = goon, CTD = GF, and Yos = SK. Although I was nervous about MBL's early day posts (mostly because he claimed he was going to reread me and see what he thought but instead of suggesting me as scum with my actions he did it in a process of elimination method, which means little since he can't prove that he shouldn't be included in that last anyway), I think it's not very likely that he is mafia and I don't think the SK is in the uninvestigated, so for now he's off the hook. I thought that perhaps White was scum, but it seems unlikely. I don't think he is the SK. On my reread of InHim/CTD I found the interaction between YB/RB and InHim/CTD to be more classically scum pairing than CTD with White. Jack seemed to go after InHim out of the blue on several occasions, and CTD started he first substantial contribution to the game by going after White.

I'd be

really

surprised if this wasn't our remaining scum. I'm not sure who the best lynch would be, though. I'm leaning towards Rogueben, from a percentages standpoint, but lynching the SK could be good for us as well.

[BillyTwilight]

I had made some points against Shteven, but Yos' jump seemed a little... forced... to me. It was shortly after the clarification that with the current votes on players there would be a no lynch, something the SK wouldn't want to happen.

...yeah, but a no-lynch is also something a pro-town player wouldn't want either. So, that'a a move that would make just as much sense from me as pro-town player.

I agree in principle, Yos. However, the problem with the vote switch is a matter of tone. You seemed to be looking for a reason to move your vote to Shteven. The vote being on Rogueben at the end of the day was a safe place to keep it from a mathematical standpoint, and since he was never in trouble of being lynched at the time you never would have had to defend your vote placement if Rogueben had turned up town. The way you went about the Shteven vote switch makes me feel you wanted your vote to be defendable, so you wouldn't get heat for it later. It's the manned you went about the vote and the tone of your posts from that period combined with not wanting to let the day end in no lynch that I find suspicious.

I might do a much more thorough analysis of Yos' play later, but for now general trends and feelings will have to do. Note that Yos hasn't done a lot of "hardcore" analysis and scum-hunting, preferring to do mathematical work that is harder to get called on. Also note that he was still slightly suspicious of Kinetic yesterday, which is something I think the SK would have to be.

Actually, by the end of the day yesterday, I was pretty sure the goon was either Shteven or Rougeban; I was leaning towards rougeban, but I was willing to lynch Shteven if needed to prevent a no-lynch.

Although I was nervous about MBL's early day posts (mostly because he claimed he was going to reread me and see what he thought but instead of suggesting me as scum with my actions he did it in a process of elimination method, which means little since he can't prove that he shouldn't be included in that last anyway), I think it's not very likely that he is mafia and I don't think the SK is in the uninvestigated, so for now he's off the hook.

Eh, no one really thought MBL was the goon, though, so I wouldn't expect a goon-hunt to result in a MBL lynch. And once the goon is dead, the whole "investigated/univestigated" thing dosn't matter anymore. So, if MBL thought that the goon was either Kinetic or Rougeben, then killing kinetic and getting rougeben lynched today makes perfect sense.

That also goes for basically anyone else as well.

Whereas, if I was the SK, I wouldn't really want the goon dead, because that would make the innocent investigation on me irrelevent; if one of the investigated people was the SK, I'd expect them to be trying to nightkill the Godfather, not the Goon.

The point of my argument is that I find it unlikely that an uninvestigated SK would kill within that pool of players. MBL has been under intense scrutiny the last day or so. I highly doubt that he'd be willing to play his chances that he wouldn't be lynched from that group of uninvestigated. It's possible that someone would have made a decent argument for MBL being the goon, GF,

or

SK. Being uninvestigated to boot would increase his chances of being scum, and and he could have found himself at the foot of the gallows by the end of the day. I don't think MBL would risk that at this point in the game, and if he had, I would have expected his kill to be either White or Rogueben, as I still feel that Kinetic was damn close to being confirmed.

---

Sorry for my extended absence.

I don't really feel like defending Inhim's actions, as all I can say is that I know he made them with the towns best interest in mind, since I didn't agree with a lot of his suspicions and gameplay stances myself. One thing I do want to point out though is that being wrong is not a scum-tell, and neither is being right. I don't really know what White was trying to accomplish when he quoted my analyses of the dead people, since he didn't really comment on them, other than his remark about me finding Kinetic "not interesting", which for the record means nothing more than that I was not interested in pursuing him (and is a terminology I use a lot whenever I analyze a bunch of people, and basically is the opposite of "a candidate"). Mind elaborating on this, White? Cause I see nothing wrong about reading three people correctly.

For the not-defending-InHim's-play stuff. I can't really expect you to; it's the nasty side of being a replacement. However, his actions still speak to your role, and right now I find them to be strongly linked with the scum in the game.

Here's something I find interesting:
White, BillyTwilight, MBL and Rogueben are our 4 uninvestigated people. MBL has shown intent to lynch the goon, and shown preference for BillyTwilight. Rogueben is currently voting MBL, who he believed to be the SK. White and BillyTwilight, in stark contrast, are concentrating their efforts on the three investigated people, the former wanting to lynch either myself or TCS, the latter apparently convinced that both I and Yos are scum (based on his statement that he'd be "

really

surprised" if we weren't). Clearly, it's in the goon's best interest to keep the group of possible suspects as large as possible, even more so if his GF is in the same pool as himself (which I find to be a distinct possibility). This strongly indicates to me that one of White and BT is the goon, and the other possibly the GF.

I don't follow the logic. If you assume White or I are the goon, then perhaps that makes sense. But I am perfectly content with lynching Roguben at the moment. Unless you can show me why all the remaining scum are in the uninvestigated pool, there is no reason to concentrate only on those players. My post was my take on the game as a whole so far. I think everyone should be doing this, considering any one of us might not make it through the night. I also think that we have started to rely on on mathematical analysis far too much. Please give credence to your theory (White and I are scum) with actual in game evidence. Number crunching is apt to lose us this game.

Here's a couple of questions for them:

White

- Explain why you don't think lynching the goon (with a chance of hitting one of the other scum roles instead) is the best play today.

BillyTwilight

- You say that you lean towards lynching Rogueben, from a percentages standpoint. I take this to mean that you agree that trying to lynch the goon is the better play today.

No, that's not what I meant. The best play today is to lynch the SK, as that will lengthen the game most dramatically of the three. However, numerically I feel it's pretty obvious that either White or Rogueben is the remaining goon. If I am wrong about the SK being in the group of uninvestigated, then I'd also believe that either White or Rogueben stands the highest chance of being the SK (in that group). Therefore the percentages say that the highest likelyhood of hitting scum is in those two players. Of the two, I find Roguben to be scummier, based on play in the game as a whole (more on that later).

If that is the case, why did you decide to analyze myself and Yos instead of goon candidates? Yesterday, you listed White among your top 3 suspects (among TCS and Shteven). At the beginning of today, your suspicion of White hadn't lessened, and over the course of the game, you seemed to have gotten progressively less suspicious of YB/Rogueben (he was noticeably absent from that aforementioned Top 3). And yet all of a sudden, your respective level of suspicion of those two has flipped based solely on the assumption that

I

am scum. And you're leaning towards lynching Rogueben because of it. Apart from the fact that you are wrong about me, this is an incredibly strange approach, since the natural thing to do would be to analyze

their

play and

their

interaction with

known

scum to determine the correct lynch and to judge

me

based on the result of

that

. Not to mention that using mine and my predecessor's play is a very underhanded way of making a case against Rogueben, since he can't defend himself against it at all.

The point is I have been suspicious of YB for the entire game, based mostly on his day 1 play. That lessened significantly when MoS and Sarc both turned up scum. It had too; it's very difficult to tell if MoS and Sarc were bussing YB because they thought he was doomed for a lynch or because they saw what they thought was an easy opportunity to get a mislynch and then pin it on me as I was the player most vested in getting YB lynched. My suspicion of him also turned out to be lessened because a lot of the things I saw with him on day 1 looked like possible collusion with other players, namely Guardian, but I think a few other players as well.

This game is in its 113 page. I believe that it's nearly impossible in a game of that magnitude for there not to be a pattern between the scum players at this point. I started my reread concentrating on you and Yos, trying to decide which of you looked most likely to be the SK (I've already explained why I narrowed it down to the two of you). On my reread of InHim I felt that I saw a pattern developing between InHim, YB, and the known scum. I've tried my best to detail that pattern. It looks the most like how scum at the time would have been behaving. Furthermore, InHim's play fits with the Godfather role. He played with enough abandon that he might draw an investigation from a cop (his insistence on lynching a claimed doc is a case in point), but upon the first whiff of a possible lynch wagon forming against him he quickly tried to snuff it out and lessened his aggressive pushing to avoid gaining votes. He actively tried to stop the YB lynch on day 1, but when it became clear that Sarc and YB were the likely lynch candidates day 2 he quickly reversed his stance on YB and seemingly tried to avoid a Sarc lynch. Once Sarc was finally lynched, with 13 players left and only 2 scum left in the game, he dropped out. He was gone for the rest of day 3 and you didn't replace until day 4, a point against InHim being the SK, but definitely something I could see a scum player doing... basically giving up because he thought the game was unwinnable at the time. To me, InHim's play (and yours, to some extent) with regards to YB and the known mafia most fit the pattern that the scum group in this game would follow. It also answers the question of why MoS and Sarc were on YB's wagon. They were bussing someone they thought was doomed to be lynched. By default, Rogueben's chances of being the goon increased rapidly again, because the main thing that was giving me trouble with RB=scum were MoS's and Sarc's actions

As for the Kinetic kill:
A good SK wouldn't have killed Kinetic if he was among the uninvestigated people himself. In that, I agree with BillyTwilight. However, I have quite some trouble seeing a player as experienced as Yos or MBL (or BT, based on his play in this game) make this particular kill in the first place. This leads me to believe that the SK is among the less experiences/capable players, which narrows it down to TCS, White, and Rogueben. But in general, I wouldn't base a lynch on a nightkill, since we don't even know what the SK's motivation was. And here is where I'm once again bothered by BillyTwilight - the fact that he basically based his whole case against Yos so far on this one nightkill is troubling, to say the least.

I'd say that's a gross misrepresentation of my case against Yos. Mathematics was a part of it, yes, but I also showed various voting patterns and issues with his play made me feel he was playing like an SK would. There is more to the Yos case as well, but I simply didn't have the time or energy to devote a lot of work to it. The InHim reread and write-up sapped a lot of that. Nevertheless, you make it sound as though I said "Kinetic was killed so Yos must be the SK" without any backing information, which simply isn't true.

[BillyTwilight]

Billy, I can't see him as mafia. He doesn't seem to have any ties with anyone at all which means if he is scum he's the sk. This is where i'd put my money on sk candidate because he genuinely seems to be hunting scum which the sk can and would do.

I'd like more justification for this please, and for your vote. Looks like your calling me the SK because I have been actively scum-hunting. So, has no one else hunted scum in the game? And if so, why aren't they just as high as I am on your SK list?

Furthermore, I find it ridiculous that anyone could think I am the SK at this point in the game.

[BillyTwilight]

MBL, I'd prefer to hear why White thinks I'm the best SK candidate right now before sharing my opinion.

I don't follow the logic. If you assume White or I are the goon, then perhaps that makes sense. But I am perfectly content with lynching Roguben at the moment. Unless you can show me why all the remaining scum are in the uninvestigated pool, there is no reason to concentrate only on those players. My post was my take on the game as a whole so far. I think everyone should be doing this, considering any one of us might not make it through the night. I also think that we have started to rely on on mathematical analysis far too much. Please give credence to your theory (White and I are scum) with actual in game evidence. Number crunching is apt to lose us this game.

I know I'm not scum. I'm leaning towards TCS not being scum. That equates a very decent chance that at least 2 scum are in this group of four. I think it's obvious that lynching one of those 4 is the only correct play for the town here, so for White to push for someone outside that group (and to a lesser extent, for you to concentrate your analysis on those outside the group) feels like a very scummy move for me. Especially considering that lynching one of the investigated people has the biggest benefit for the mafia if the GF wasn't investigated. Notice how easily White was persuaded to move his vote? Feels like scum realizing that he's off-course.

But you think that White and I are the goon/GF pair, although you haven't presented any evidence for this. How does his vote switch make you feel about the roles in the game now?

No, that's not what I meant. The best play today is to lynch the SK, as that will lengthen the game most dramatically of the three.

Actually, I would prefer lynching mafia at this point. Possible scenarios:
1. We lynch the SK -> 3 town, 2 mafia tomorrow
2. We lynch mafia -> 3 town, 1 SK/mafia tomorrow
3. We lynch mafia -> 2 town, 1 SK, 1 mafia tomorrow
4. We lynch mafia -> 4 town tomorrow

Obviously, scenario 4 is the most desirable, but scenario 2 is obviously preferable to scenario 1. The least predictable (and the one town has least control over) is scenario 3, which leads to a prisoner's dilemma and basically comes down to whether the two remaining scum realize who each other are. But it's also the least likely, seeing as the scum will have to try to shoot each other next night.

For the record, if we lynch a townie today, we are gonna have to rely on the SK killing a mafiate, which will either lead to scenario 2 or 3. If the SK misses, it's game over for the town.

Hopefully if we lynch town today the SK is smart enough to submit a no kill unless he is absolutely sure of hitting scum. My point about lynching the SK is that the game stays under our control better. We would be in LyLO, true, but unlike normal newbie C9 games we should by this point be able to make good decisions on lynching the remaining mafia. If we lynch the goon today we still have to deal with 2 kills per night, which is something that we have no control over and could play out poorly for us in the long run. I personally prefer being in LyLO but having the ability to rely on logic and psychology to decide the outcome of a game, not the good decisions of scum groups in the game.

So no, while I wouldn't exactly be sad if we end up lynching the SK, our odds are definitely better if we lynch a mafiate.

This game is in its 113 page. I believe that it's nearly impossible in a game of that magnitude for there not to be a pattern between the scum players at this point. I started my reread concentrating on you and Yos, trying to decide which of you looked most likely to be the SK (I've already explained why I narrowed it down to the two of you). On my reread of InHim I felt that I saw a pattern developing between InHim, YB, and the known scum.

Actually, I feel like patterns between me and known scum make up a fairly small portion of your analysis. It's predominantly patterns between me and YB under the assumption that we're both scum. And while I acknowledge that looking for possible scum-pairs is a valid strategy at this point, it feels to me like you went into this analysis with the pre-made decision to paint us as scum-buddies.

Actually, I went into the analysis looking for evidence you were the SK. Since you haven't actually tried to refute any of the play that I've pointed out, I'm just becoming more convinced that I am correct.

Which leads me to an interesting point:
Earlier in this post, you said that "it's pretty obvious that either White or Rogueben are the goon". If White is the goon, who is his godfather? Me as well? You would think so, seeing as you'd be "

really

surprised" if I wasn't the godfather, but I don't see you looking for connections between me and White/Jack (or White/anyone for that matter).

Now here is a massive misrepresentation of what I said. I claimed that "I'd be

really

surprised if this wasn't our remaining scum". Meaning that I'd be surprised if the scenario I've argued for isn't correct. If I am wrong and White is the goon, I'd have to rethink everything. In that case, I don't think you'd be the GF. There was some late day 2 maneuvering between Jack and InHim that really argues against there being a link between Jack and InHim. To be honest I haven't really given it much thought, because I haven't seen anything to make me think I am completely wrong here.

I'd say that's a gross misrepresentation of my case against Yos. Mathematics was a part of it, yes, but I also showed various voting patterns and issues with his play made me feel he was playing like an SK would. There is more to the Yos case as well, but I simply didn't have the time or energy to devote a lot of work to it. The InHim reread and write-up sapped a lot of that. Nevertheless, you make it sound as though I said "Kinetic was killed so Yos must be the SK" without any backing information, which simply isn't true.

But that's basically what you did. I agree with you that Yos has been fairly scummy, but there's nothing in your analysis of him that wouldn't also fit Yos as the GF. It clearly feels to me like you wrote that analysis with an intended outcome in mind, following this thought process:
"The SK killed Kinetic, so he must be one of the investigated people." -> "It's not TCS." -> "CTD is the GF." -> "Ergo, Yos is the SK." You presented very little evidence that specifically points towards Yos as the SK to support this, in my opinion.

I'll give you this. There isn't anything that would specifically keep Yos from being the GF, although he has played extremely reserved in the game so far, which I think is a little atypical of a GF. Generally, the GF can be more outspoken because he is investigative immune (and actually prefers to be investigated)

and

he has back-up in his goons in case he is lynched or night killed at some point. Although the SK also has immunity, he has no fall back plan for winning the game if he is killed, and therefore has to play as safely as possible. He can't play forward enough to get himself lynched, and he can't scum hunt (in the day phase sense) very well, especially early in the game, for fear of being night killed.

Yes, you are correct, and I have admitted that my thought process was along these lines already. I think the SK is in the investigated. I don't think TCS is scum, so I reread you and Yos looking for the SK. Upon reading you I really felt that you were the GF, and there is some evidence that you can't be the SK (no known player was around to submit a kill on night 3), which left Yos. Upon reading Yos, I found his play to be typical of how I would expect an SK to play at this point in the game. Is there a major fault in this logic? Only if my original assumptions (SK is in the investigated and TCS is town) are wrong. I think those assumptions are fairly good. If the SK is in the uninvestigated, I'd think it would be White. As I've said, I feel that the Kinetic kill is not something MBL would do, I feel that Rougben is the goon and White might be inexperienced enough not to have thought through the Kinetic kill and how that could make him look good for a lynch today. However, I find this to be less likely than the scenario I presented earlier. I'll go ahead and reread White for some peace of mind, but I'm still very confident that I have this game figured out.

As a side note, I am becoming disturbed with the direction the game has taken. There is more information available in this game than any other I think I have ever seen (never read a game of 100+ pages). Yet everyone seems to be content to talk about the most recent events in the game and use mathematics to hunt scum instead of digging back through the game and looking at people's play. This frustrates me. Yes, it's a long game, but we should be using that to our advantage.

[BillyTwilight]

It is notable that Twilight has only posted to defend himself, not to scumhunt.

??

I don't think I've even defended myself. As far as I have seen no one has even made a case against me. All I've done is lay out who I think the remaining scum are. In fact, all I've done is the exact opposite of what you just said. Unless your being sarcastic and it was just lost on me.

[BillyTwilight]

Hey guys, I've been busy at school, and there hasn't been a lot to comment on recently. I've got some grading to do today, but I should get a chance to post this evening, mostly a response to post #2815 by Yos.

[BillyTwilight]

Wow, we must be trying to give this game up. Sorry I didn't get to post till now, I had to prep a presentation for a research group meeting here at the university.

---

I agree in principle, Yos. However, the problem with the vote switch is a matter of tone. You seemed to be looking for a reason to move your vote to Shteven.

I thought we needed to lynch either Rougeban or Shteven. So yes, I kind of was "looking for a reason to vote Shteven".

The vote being on Rogueben at the end of the day was a safe place to keep it from a mathematical standpoint, and since he was never in trouble of being lynched at the time you never would have had to defend your vote placement if Rogueben had turned up town.

My vote wasn't on rougeban at the end of the day, it was on Shteven at the end of the day.

What I meant was keeping your vote on Rogueben was safe up till you were forced to switch your vote to Shteven. You weren't actively pursuing someone you thought to be scum in such a way that you might draw too much attention to yourself.

The way you went about the Shteven vote switch makes me feel you wanted your vote to be defendable, so you wouldn't get heat for it later. It's the manned you went about the vote and the tone of your posts from that period combined with not wanting to let the day end in no lynch that I find suspicious.

My logic for everything I did yesterday was completly 100% clear, and I think everything I did was the correct pro-town thing for me to do in the situation, ESPECALLY my "Shteven vote switch" and my "not wanting the day to end with a no-lynch". If you want to question my logic for anything I did, please do so. This argument you're using now is compete crap, some vauge garbage about "the tone of my posts" and some horribly WIFOM BS about me being scum because my actions were "defendable". Of course my actions were "defendable", BECAUSE THEY WERE THE CORRECT PRO-TOWN ACTIONS.

This is a fine sounding argument, but it's completely bogus. The correct protown thing to do is to make a reasoned case against another player. YOU NEVER DID THAT. You eliminated certain people based on a mathematical analysis, which is fine, but then you moved your vote around on Rogueben and Shteven without EVER making any case against them based on their play. Basically you said, "Well, I think these players are townish, and I think that there has to be scum in one of these two players, so my vote is going to one of them. I'm not actually going to go back and look for a reason from their play to vote them though. However, I would like for everyone voting Shteven to make a case against him, so if my vote moves to him it will seem more reasonable." Why would a town player do that? You were voting Rogueben, but you never tried to convince others to vote for him based on his past play or connections between him and any other player you found scummy, etc. So no, I DON'T find your play to be 100% consistent with being town. I'd like you to show me where in this monstrous game you have brought a case against another player based on solid or at least circumstantial evidence against that player and continuously pushed for that player to be lynched until all your questions were answered satisfactorily. In other words, I want you to show me, preferably somewhere recently where your actions would stand up to more scrutiny because fewer players were involved later in the game, where you have actively scumhunted. And please don't give me going after Guardian. Basically you voted him for LaL reasons, which is not actively scumhunting.

My point is, if you are the SK you can't actively lead a charge against someone you find scummy, because if the lynch fails and they

were

scum, your likelihood for being Night killed goes up (or at least, the scum would have you higher on their probable night kill list). If the lynch

doesn't

fail, and the player turns up town, then you likelihood of being lynched goes up, because the town is automatically going to be less trusting of you for leading or being a strong proponent of a lynch that end up killing a townie. From this point of view, the SK has to be very careful and make as few enemies as possible, and would therefore be hesitant in attempting to find scum. I would expect them to more or less follow the coat-tails of other players votes, which is what I feel you did with Shteven. Conversely, a townie doesn't have to worry about surviving to endgame; they therefore have more freedom to actively scumhunt and propose scenarios they feel might be true, which could get them in trouble with the town down the line or raise the possibility of them being nightkilled... but they don't have to worry about that, because they only care about lynching scum, not surviving for the entire game. I think your play clearly better fits the former style and not the latter, and this is illustrated in the way you voted for Shteven.

The point of my argument is that I find it unlikely that an uninvestigated SK would kill within that pool of players.

And, again, the point of my argument was that while that makes some sense, it's not necessarally true; if the SK either thought Kinetic was the goon, or thought that killing Kinetic would lead to the goon being lynched today, then if he was uninvestigated he would definatly want that, because once the goon is dead the investigation becomes meaningless. So I would actually expect an uninvestigated SK to try and get rid of the goon, if he thought he could.

I grant you this, and I hadn't thought about it this way. However, I'm still shocked that anyone would have thought Kinetic was scum, and if the SK

missed

scum and was in that group of uninvestigated, then his chance of being the lynch increases, something I think that the SK would certainly attempt to avoid. If he was going to take that risk I think he would certainly have been more careful in making the kill and gone after someone besides Kinetic. I just don't see how they could make a kill that critical and choose Kinetic as the target. Now, someone

outside

of the uninvestigated group would have much less to worry about. If they kill the goon then all the better for them; although it brings them back into play as the important distinction between uninvestigated and investigated is ended; however, I'd find this a likely tradeoff for lessening the number of Mafia in the game, something the SK has to do anyway. Conversely, if Kinetic wasn't the goon then they still don't have to worry about being lynched as long as the town decides to continue to goon hunt; it byes them an extra day of basically unlynchable status and only has the drawback that the town really must lynch the goon the following day; if not endgame and Mafia win is approaching much too quickly and the SK's play must be absolutely perfect from that point on in the game to sustain a win.

Basically the SK has two options:

1.) Kill an investigated.

2.) Kill an uninvestigated.

From a pure desire standpoint, regardless of what group the SK is in they should prefer option 1. If they are uninvestigated they don't lessen the pool of likely lynch candidates and if they are investigated they remain effectively lynch-proof for another day.

This must be offset by the desire at this point in the game for the SK to lynch scum. Given the fact that we are nearing the point where the SK has to lynch scum in order to win, I think this is a good assumption. Also, given that if the SK

wasn't

trying to lynch scum, their best play was to kill one of the investigated players, I think there is more evidence that the SK was trying to kill scum.

So obviously the best play for a SK depends on which group he is in. If he is investigated it seems to me that he should be looking to kill the GF. He removes one scum, maintains his ability to avoid a lynch for another day, and everything is good for him. The problem is he might not have any idea who the GF is. If he is looking for the GF, he has to evaluate every other player in the game, not just those in the uninvestigated group; considering he really doesn't want to lynch town at this point, he might have made the decision to try and hit scum in the uninvestigated group, regardless of if that makes the distinction between the two groups disappear.

If the SK is in the uninvestigated group, then his options are much smaller. He can go with option 1 and kill outside the uninvestigated group, which leaves the pool of uninvestigated players at the maximum and therefore his chance of being the lynch smaller. The problem is his chance of killing scum decreases dramatically, because he is only hunting for the GF at that point and he has no way of knowing if the GF is even in the investigated pool or not. So, if he then chooses to kill inside the uninvestigated group he

must

get the goon; there is simply too much risk that the tide will turn against him in the next day phase and he might be lynched in the goon hunt. Also, presumably, he is killing a player that he thinks is the goon, so there is one fewer "scummy" looking player for him to draw his kill from. I think the SK is taking a very calculated risk in killing inside of this group of players, and would really want to make sure he hit the goon here.

However, there is one other option for the investigated-SK. If that player is relatively sure who the goon is, he can purposely kill someone in the uninvestigated player group that he thinks has a higher possibility of being town. Yesterday there were six uninvestigated players(myself, MBL, White, Kinetic, Shteven, Rogueben). If the SK thought that 3 of them were town, and that the goon was in the other three, he could attempt to get one of those players lynched, kill the second in the night phase, and attempt to get the third lynched the following day. If all three turned up town, he'd have a 33% chance of getting the goon the next night. Furthermore, he could take the calculated risk of making his "first" night kill of the three the player he thought less likely to be scum, or someone he thought might be scum but would have a hard time convincing the rest of the town to vote for. It's a risky play; if the players he thought were scum all turned out town and he was left with choosing 1 of the three remaining uninvestigated for his second night kill he runs the risk of losing the game by killing town. The upside is he gets another day of lynchproof status, and effectively he gets to control his own fate by trusting himself and making the correct kill.

I'm pretty sure this is what happened with Yos. See post #2723. He seemed to have settled on Shteven, Rogueben, and Kinetic as the likeliest goon candidates. Shteven was lynched, Kinetic night killed, and in post #2771 he seemed to indicate going after Rogueben as the best candidate for the goon. Couple that with the other evidence I brought against him, he seems to be playing to me exactly how I would expect an experienced player to play SK in this game.

However, there is a major flaw in all of the above. Everything I've laid out assumes a very analytical and well laid out plan by a SK, someone who is very experienced and able to take the time to lay out and evaluate all the options and come to a decision that they think will give them the best chance of winning the game. All of these things Yos is. However, a less experienced player, who might be playing the SK for the first time and simply not have a lot of experience as scum period, might not have taken the time to think about all of this and simply killed someone they thought was scummy.

White has a crapload of posts now on the site, but his join date is August of this year. The night kill happened on 10th of October, so White had only been on site 2 months at the time. I don't know how many games he was in at the time (he is averaging 10 posts a day according to his profile), so I don't know what his level of experience really was when the night phase happened....

Nix that, I just checked and I believe that White's last post on the site was Oct 19th (HOLY CRAP, that means he put up close to 1000 posts in 2 months... that's insane!). I am assuming that he is not coming back into the game. Well, he was playing in a ton of games apparently at the time and I just have no way of knowing how much effort he would have put into a night kill if he were the SK, or how well he would have thought it out as far as lengthy analysis like I gave above. I simply can't eliminate him as the SK at this point. The same goes for Rogueben, although I really think he is the goon at this point, therefore he is lower on my SK list.

The point of all this is that I think Yos is the best SK candidate at this point, but I can't eliminate other players and therefore won't be looking for a Yos lynch today.

I still think Rogueben is the best lynch for the day, as I've laid out before. I wish that others would at least make an attempt to give alternate possibilities and we could get some discussion going, but so far I think I'm the only player whose actually laid out a case against who I think are the remaining scum. I don't know what's going to happen before tomorrow, but we need to get something going before deadline hits.

Mod, can we please get a replacement for White? I think it's pretty obvious that he's not on site anymore

.

[BillyTwilight]

Wow, we must be trying to give this game up. Sorry I didn't get to post till now, I had to prep a presentation for a research group meeting here at the university.

Yeah, apparently.

It's also interesting that now, one day before deadline and with everyone lurking, you're trying to attack me, when no one else is. The only people who want a no-lynch right now are the mafia members, and it seems like your actions are likely to cause a no-lynch, which makes me wonder if the mafia is you and rougeban together.

I just stated that I was not interested in lynching you today. My whole post was a continuation of the conversation we were having; I stated before I was going to answer that post and I did. How is that scummy? And you are

really

going to try and blame ME for a no lynch!? As apathetic as we have all been in this game, with no one posting for DAYS with a deadline looming, you are putting the sole blame for a no lynch on me for attacking YOU?? That's extremely OMGUSY and reeks of someone afraid that a quicklynch is going to form against them in one day. Especially since it makes absolutely NO SENSE. If I wanted a no lynch, I would have just kept quiet. It's obvious that without an extension the likelihood of a lynch happening now is very small. To even suggest that me attacking you, pointing out why I think you might be the SK is causing us to no lynch when this game has been inactive and heading to a no lynch for weeks is patently absurd.

What I meant was keeping your vote on Rogueben was safe up till you were forced to switch your vote to Shteven. You weren't actively pursuing someone you thought to be scum in such a way that you might draw too much attention to yourself.

I wasn't "actevly persuing someone I thought to be scum"? What does that mean? Of course I was

My logic for everything I did yesterday was completly 100% clear, and I think everything I did was the correct pro-town thing for me to do in the situation, ESPECALLY my "Shteven vote switch" and my "not wanting the day to end with a no-lynch". If you want to question my logic for anything I did, please do so. This argument you're using now is compete crap, some vauge garbage about "the tone of my posts" and some horribly WIFOM BS about me being scum because my actions were "defendable". Of course my actions were "defendable", BECAUSE THEY WERE THE CORRECT PRO-TOWN ACTIONS.

This is a fine sounding argument, but it's completely bogus. The correct protown thing to do is to make a reasoned case against another player.. YOU NEVER DID THAT. You eliminated certain people based on a mathematical analysis, which is fine, but then you moved your vote around on Rogueben and Shteven without EVER making any case against them based on their play.

(shrug) I've suspected Yogurt for much of the game, based on his play. And yes, I eliminsted many people, but no, it was not just "based on a mathmatical analysis", it was also based on people's play, which made me think certain players were pro-town.

My point is, if you are the SK you can't actively lead a charge against someone you find scummy, because if the lynch fails and they

were

scum, your likelihood for being Night killed goes up (or at least, the scum would have you higher on their probable night kill list).

If you really want to claim that, I'll point out that the one time I won as SK, I attacked scum non-stop and got them both lynched myself. viewtopic.php?t=2049&start=0 SK's want to lynch scum, ESPECALLY yesterday and today.

That actually makes me re-evaluate MBL a bit; his lurking, 1 lne post, then back to lurking, this close to a deadline, makes me wonder if he's mafia instead of SK; a SK would want to lynch scum at this point.

Your logic for me being SK is rather drawn out and absurd, btw, based as it is primarally on the Kinetic kill last night. Like I said, all that shows is that the SK thought Kinetic was probably scum; if the SK could have killed scum last night, he'd be in a much better position right now.

Anyway, with 1 day until deadline, why would you spend so much time going after me if you don't even think I'm the lynch for today? If you think Rougeban is the lynch, why didn't you spend that ten million word post laying out a case against him instead?

I've already laid out a case for why I'd like to see RB lynched. Did it a long time ago. Laid out a case why I think he is scum and CTD is his partner. CTD has defended against it, but other than that there has been little to no comment on it and RB hasn't bothered trying to make a defense for himself either. I haven't seen anything that makes me not want to lynch RB at this point. Maybe you or anyone else in this ridiculous game would actually try to make a case for why we should lynch someone. I'm all ears.

By the way, you found it "interesting" that I post the day before a deadline continuing a case against you as SK. I find it "interesting" that you've not posted since Saturday when specifically asked something by CTD, and consisted of a pretty lame attempt at just stating you'd be happy lynching RB and MBL (of all people - who you haven't really had anything bad to say about all game long, really). Since then you've not posted anything trying to convince anybody about anything or otherwise get the game started up again, but when I post against you within less than 2 hours you've posted defending yourself, but still not contributed to any actual scumhunting.

I'm getting frustrated here. We need a lynch, and a correct one at that. I think the best bet is Rogueben. I'd have liked to hear something from other players before putting a vote down; I'd rather have a real consensus lynch at this point in the game, but screw it.

Vote: Rogueben

.

[BillyTwilight]

Nice to see the thread is opened.

Mod, when is the new deadline?

I want to hear more from MBL and why he chose to vote Yos when he did.

[BillyTwilight]

Due to some recent events I am for the moment going to

Unvote

. I'll reread and try to remember what is going on in this game. I want more from MBL on his vote for Yos, considering how close it was to the deadline.

However, I'm much more interested in Strudel's post #2864. I'm interested in your lists, particularly list 1. I'm assuming that the players in red are who you are suspecting of being teamscum. If so, can you explain why White was one of your suspects?

Fonz, can you elaborate on the things that I said that you disagree with vehemently? And considering this, why you still don't find me scummy? I'm suspicious anytime a player says something like that. Also, what about Jack's play did you like? I always found Jack to be one of the more suspicious players in the game, yet several players have commented on Jack looking particularly protown. I'll have to reread to refresh myself on why I see his play differently than a lot of other players (as I recall).

My vote will probably go back to Rogueben - as of right now I still think lynching him is the best chance of hitting scum - but with the new players and some new information finally starting to circulate now, I don't want to rush the day till some of these questions are answered.

[BillyTwilight]

This game is getting interesting.

Things of note:

Toaster Strudel hasn't explained why he had White (whom he replaced) on his list of probable scum. I'm assuming this is just oversight, but I can't decide if it's an oversight that is more likely from replacing scum or replacing town.

MBL isn't just playing scummy, he's playing like noob-scum. I can't figure out why. Particularly posts #2875, 2887, and 2893. The argument "scum is playing good this game, Yos and BT are good players, ergo, they are scum" is one of the most ridiculous things I have ever heard, and below MBL's usual play standard. Not to mention the Burden of Proof fallacy that he tried to hit Yos with in #2887. If I had to wager, I'd say that MBL is deliberately acting scummy, but why? The only way it makes sense is if he is goon with Rogueben as the GF... but that makes no sense because of how Sarc and MoS went after YB on day 1. Alternatively, he could be the GF and desperate to keep both he and his partner in the game together, but I don't think MBL would panic like that. Regardless, MBL has been attempting to derail a RB lynch for weeks now. I think RB is scum, so MBL is taking a big hit in my book now.

Yos decision to vote Rogueben when he did is difficult for me to interpret. It fell right after TS decided to join with MBL in voting Yos, leaving both Yos and RB tied in vote count. I have a feeling that Yos was scared things would go against him, and tried to get the vote moved back towards RB. I still have Yos high on my SK list, but this action could conceivably be done by town or scum. I think that if the RB wagon sputters out we are going to lynch Yos.

But the RB wagon isn't going to sputter out. I am suspicious of Yos, but it is ridiculous to lynch an investigated before we nail the goon. Plus, I've had a lot of second thoughts about Yos as the SK. I keep getting this feeling that White could have made the Kinetic kill, and I didn't really like Jack's play in this game. Add to that Toaster Strudel's gaff when he replaced in and I just can't feel confident enough in Yos=SK to allow that lynch to happen.

Besides, I've been wanting to do this since day 1.

Vote: Rogueben

.

[BillyTwilight]

Oops, I missed that TS unvoted RB to vote Yos.

Are we ever going to lynch YB/RB in this game?

Since the day isn't over yet, I'd love to hear TS's explanation of the White-suspicion. Also, I'd like a real case from MBL against Yos. Please include if you think he is the SK or group scum, and why.

Unless someone can really convince me, my vote will be on RB till he is lynched. And I definitely won't be voting for one of the investigated unless they claim scum, mmkay.

[BillyTwilight]

And hey, glancing over, I find it unlikely that both yos and rogueben are mafia.

You can subsitute rogue with the fonz if you want a mafia group. I think those two are the most scummy.

Check again, Simenon. Both were investigated innocent, unless you think Glork was lying for some bizarre reason.

I've become incredibly suspicious of Jack/White/Toaster Strudel/Simenon = SK. I don't know why TS would have flaked, he never mentioned being too busy or the like. Could be coincidental, but with TS coming in and listing the person he replaced as one of his top suspects, then switching his vote to Yos (which I would expect the SK to do if they are in the uninvestigated group), he could have decided that he made too many missteps in too short a period of time to win through the game. Add to that that I was pushing for him to explain these actions, and maybe things just felt to un-winnable for him to want to put the effort into continuing. This is speculation and has no real basis in fact, but the play, especially from White through Simenon, from this role has just been too erratic for me to believe he is town.

Is anybody else in a current game with TS, or otherwise have a reason to explain his flaking?

---

It's been a long time since I've made this clear, so I'll post it again:

I was wrong on

Albert

, right on

Mastermind of Sin

, right on

Sarcastro

, right on

AutumnEvenings

, right on

Guardian

, right on

ManaSpryte

, wrong on

HackerHuck

, right on

Shteven

, right on

Kinetic

.

Any case that I'm mafia has to address the fact that I have the best scumhunting record in this game and in fact was the person primarily responsible for the

Sarcastro

lynch. Anyone ignoring that fact is either lazy or scum.

Time to read up and decide who the scums are--long planeflight coming up.

*high-fives Twilight who's the only other original player remaining*

*returns high five in an exhausted manner* MBL, I don't know if you have ever been in a game this long before, but the fact that we've managed to not give up on it after so long should earn us some kind of award. Yos as well, really; as I recall, he replaced in very early in the game.

I'm going to take some time to break down your scumhunting record. I get the feeling from vague recollections of the game that you are overemphasizing how good your record is; for example, you claim to have been "right" about Guardian, but as I recall you were out of town when we lynched Guardian; coming back into the game and claiming that we were stupid for lynching him and that you were right doesn't really hold water in that situation, if you didn't really express those feelings in the days before he was lynched. I can't remember what you said about him before that, though, so I need to refresh my memories of the game before commenting further yet.

However, I don't think you can deny that some of your posting about a week ago was particularly scummy and below your usual standards. And you also can't deny that you have been defending Rogueben a lot lately, while at the same time claiming that if Rogueben

does

turn out to be scum, that Yos is probably his partner. It reads too much like you trying to protect your scum buddy and setting up a backup plan should your scum buddy get lynched anyway.

Current suspects:

Mafia:

Rogueben
CTD
Simenon
MBL
Yos
The Fonz

SK:

Simenon
Yos
CTD/MBL
The Fonz
Rogueben

At this point I think the best bet for a good lynch is Rogueben; I'm more confident in my mafia hunting now than in pinning down the SK. However, I am not opposed to a Simenon lynch. It's almost assured that the goon is either Rogueben or Simenon (regardless of MBL's strange posting earlier, I can't see MBL=goon and Rogueben = GF, and I certainly have no idea why MBL=goon and one of the investigated = GF would give any reason for MBL to not have hammered Rogueben by now). Add to that that I think Simenon is a good candidate for the SK makes me feel comfortable with his lynch, for now.

In short, I don't see MBL as the goon at this point, though he is a reasonable GF candidate, pending further investigation into his scumhunting record. I am still suspicious of Yos=SK, but Simenon has jumped past him now based on TS' late and Simenon's early play. I am most confident in Rogueben being the goon, but Simenon could also be the goon from a mathematical and process of elimination standpoint, which might also explain his and his predecessors' erratic play. I don't find the Fonz likely to be scum at all, though I can't eliminate him as a possible SK. But I don't see him being the Godfather. TCS' play pretty much eliminates The Fonz as mafia. I still find CTD to be a likely GF if Rogueben is the goon. If Simenon is the goon I have no idea who I think the GF could be in that situation.

Let's lynch Rogueben. Barring that, let's lynch Simenon. Can we please stop trying to lynch investigated players when nearly everyone in the game can aggree that the goon is either Rogueben or Simenon?

[BillyTwilight]

And hey, glancing over, I find it unlikely that both yos and rogueben are mafia.

You can subsitute rogue with the fonz if you want a mafia group. I think those two are the most scummy.

Check again, Simenon. Both were investigated innocent, unless you think Glork was lying for some bizarre reason.

Let me clarify this. You are suspecting Yos and The Fonz of being mafia. Both are investigated innocent, etc...

[BillyTwilight]

It would be wise to read over Verbose III and look at mbl's performance.

Link please? I did a quick search for Verbose and didn't find the game. Thanks.

[BillyTwilight]

Back from holidays and weddings. Did a quick read of the posts since my last. Simenon's post #2939 is extremely confusing. Please post quoted post #s or something to clarify the who, what, and when about what you are discussing.

The back-and-forth between Yos and MBL is getting old. I don't think either of you are the lynch for today; can we please decide between RB and Simenon? MBL, calling Yos scum repeatedly without bringing any evidence against him is tiresome and not convincing anybody, and Yos pointing this out repeatedly is also distracting. It's especially silly because I think there

is

evidence for Yos being scum, but you aren't bothering to posit your thoughts on his actions in the game.

However, like I said, today's lynch should be either Simenon or RB. I'm beginning to lean more and more towards Simenon; play from that role has been extremely scummy since Jack left, and I had my doubts about Jack while he was still in the game.

We need to focus the discussion in this game, or we're never going to get a non-deadlined, non-rushed lynch.

Prods for CTD and RB please (last posts: Dec 08 and Dec 17, respectively)

I know it's the holidays, but things should be slowing down and we need everyone in this game right now. CTD only has 4 posts since the beginning of November and RB only has 5.

[BillyTwilight]

A reponse to the other posts I've made might be nice, since I've noticed you ignored them.

What other posts? The ones where you suggested we read Verbose III to compare MBL's play with his play in that game? Sorry, I don't have time (and don't think it would be particularly fruitful) to read another game to evaluate the play of someone I don't think we should really be considering as a viable lynch candidate right now. Other than that, I don't see any really relevant posts from you, other than calling out Yos for his "snide play". I honestly can't believe that players in this game want to pursue a meta-lynch when there are 118 pages of information

in this game

to draw conclusions from.

However, like I said, today's lynch should be either Simenon or RB. I'm beginning to lean more and more towards Simenon; play from that role has been extremely scummy since Jack left, and I had my doubts about Jack while he was still in the game.

If you are leaning on voting me, vote me. It shows too much weakness at this stage of the game not to.

I've consistently said that I think you and RB are the best candidates for a lynch today. I've provided reasons as to why. Your (and your predecessors') play has only strengthened my feeling that you are scum, but not enough to warrant switching my vote yet. I've found RB's and his predecessor's play to be extremely scummy since Day 1, and he's not had to answer for that because everyone has to some degree or another assumed YB's interactions with the known scum wasn't busing.

However, I do appreciate that you are trying to bait me into voting for you. I assume you mean to either attack me for not switching my vote or attack me for switching my vote and not staying on RB who I've been after all game. Have I got that right?

---

Vote: MBL

BT's last couple of posts (particularly Post 2909) have given me reason to re-evaluate my stance on him (once again). I would support his lynch as well.

Reasoning to be provided later.

Interesting. I think it's fair to ask:

Mod, did you prod CTD?

I find it incredibly interesting that you've gone 2 months with a bare minimum of posting, yet when I ask for a prod you post within 4 hours of my request. Makes me think you have been reading the thread and intentionally lurking, something I can't for the life of me understand why town would do at this stage in the game,

especially

investigated town, who should be attempting to lead at this point, not hide in the shadows.

BTW, your "reevaluation" of me wouldn't have anything to do with me calling you out as GF-scum with RB, would it?

[BillyTwilight]

What other posts?

You know, those posts where I responded to you and you decided to ignore for some reason?

I honestly can't believe that players in this game want to pursue a meta-lynch when there are 118 pages of information in this game to draw conclusions from.

I believe it was Primate who said the meta-game is 80-90% reliable.

OK, I can't let this slide. I want you to specifically give post numbers for whatever posts I have "ignored".

Actually, scratch that, I'm just going to do a pbp analysis on you right now, and you can point out from here what you are trying to get at.

Post #s 2903, 2904, 2905: Intro into game. Has some limited idea of who the scum are, gives lists of town (The Fonz, CTD, BT), mafia (Yos, RB), and SK (MBL). Quickly changes his tune and removes RB as mafia, replaces him with the Fonz.

Post #2908: Posts in response to the Fonz (who is setting him up to see if he is actually paying attention to the events of the game, I think), that his "gut" is there is no Yos/RB scum group, and he finds BT and CTD to be "+ town" (was that a typo, Simenon, or were you trying to indicate that you found both CTD and myself to be very townish? clarify, please), CTD for meta reasons and BT for in game reasons he would go into later (he never did). Also makes a promise to contribute 1 post for every other player's posts made from that point on. I've never seen anyone do this before, and my initial reaction is to think he is trying to suck up to the town, a bit, but it could simply be a playstyle thing and a real desire (at the time) to get this game moving again.

Post #s 2912, 2913, 2914: Gives a somewhat lame excuse for not realizing that both The Fonz and Yos were investigated innocents. If anything it shows that he is throwing around lists of scum and town without having read the thread, or even just the last few pages of the thread carefully. Attacks Yos for being "subtle" in reference to one of the most unsubtle statements I have ever read. I find his attack to be baiting, trying to get Yos to say something he can attack later. He questions why I called his play erratic, which is not exactly what happened. I called that role's play from White through Simenon (White's play was noobish and erratic, TS placed himself on his list of top possible scum candidates, and Simenon had 2 investigated as his most likely scumpair). I think I am completely justified in calling the play erratic from that role. Simenon trying to make it seem like I was only talking about him is straw-manning my argument a little bit, and a slight overaction to boot. He then asks for other players to post their "info" because the game was "hard to sort out" thanks to the "nonsense" that we have all posted. Reads like a bad excuse for why he didn't even know who the investigated players were (something that should have been obvious to anyone who did a brief skim of the last 10 pages, which is what I would expect of any player who has already posted a list of scum and town.)

Post #2916: Asks for night actions.

Post #s 2919, 2920: In response to RB asking for reasoning behind his suspects. He says it will be hard because he is working off memory. CTD is town based on meta. He thinks Yos is mafia, so the Fonz can't be now. Doesn't think Yos/RB is scumpair. Doesn't think Yos/MBL is scumpair. Thinks Yos/BT is scumpair (that's all that left; so much for BT being "+ town" for in game reasons). Posts he thinks MBL is SK because MBL isn't scumhunting (other than accidentally) and only wants to defend himself. Basically all a rehash of things he has already said, and doesn't really answer RB's question. If I had asked that question, I would have expected some kind of analysis, even short and based on the last few pages of posts, on why he thought those players were of those alignments; instead, he answers with reasons that could easily be made up on the spot and have no basis in the game whatsoever. In fact I find this to be extremely likely. I find it very hard to believe that someone who didn't have enough knowledge of the game to know who the investigated players were or any of the night actions that had occurred has read the thread enough to get an accurate meta read on any of the players involved. Claiming meta-reasons for wanting a lynch of someone is a very convenient excuse to avoid diving into a large thread and getting into arguments over in game events. Claiming meta reasons to attack Yos and MBL are very difficult for those players to defend against, because it involves long arguments about their play in other games they have been in with Simenon which are very difficult to maintain and basically meaningless to the other players in the game who are most likely not going to read through long other games in order to meta players they do or don't find scummy.

Post #s 2922, 2923: In response to Yos asking why he finds Yos scummy. Asks why that discussion would be fruitful at this point. I don't know what he is getting at here. He has claimed Yos as his most likely scum candidate, voted for Yos (or at least left his predecessor's vote on Yos), and argued for Yos being scum based on misty meta reasons. Yos is at L-2. He has to be concerned that RB or CTD might decide to throw another vote his way, and he would be extremely close to being lynched. Yet Simenon wonders why it would be fruitful to explain why he is suspicious of Yos and still voting him (he doesn't want to give Yos a chance to refute him, in my book)? He then states that he finds Yos scummy because of his "snide" posts at the end of the game. I find this to be a pretty bogus reason for voting for someone. Again, it's a meta read, one that is very, very poor, to boot. Yos could have had a bad couple of weeks, or been frustrated by MBL claiming he was scum because the scum are obviously smart, etc. There are any number of reasons for Yos to be a bit snarky, perhaps the largest one being the fact that this game has been running since April and so slow as to be nearly mod abandoned a couple of weeks ago. He also states that there are things in other ongoing games that "

really, really

" don't fit with Yos' play here. He then states that he is not using those things as an argument (?? - he just did?), but Yos himself asked why he thought Yos was scum. Again, a meta, and again, a bad meta.

Post #s 2927, 2928: Asks why CTD and RB aren't voting. Asks us to read Verbose III to look at MBL's play. Setting up another meta, that more than likely no one else in the game is going to follow up on if that game is much longer than a decade of pages.

Post #2931: Something in response to MBL saying he didn't remember playing in Verbose III. Doesn't like MBL's post, for whatever reason.

Post #2933: Again in response to MBL. Again I don't really understand what he is getting at. MBL claims he isn't scum and to compare his play in this game to his play in any other game to see that. Simenon says "I'm not suggesting you aren't", which doesn't follow in the context of the converstation. You weren't suggesting he wasn't what? Comparing himself to his play in other games? I don't understand this. Links to "Verbose III". BTW I had a quick look at that game, and it is long and confusing, and I couldn't even find MBL in it (I didn't look for very long). Goes more to the point that Simenon doesn't really have to defend his meta attacks because people won't really read up on other games if they weren't involved in them in the first place. Did anyone else in this game read through (or even skim through) verbose III?

Post #s 2939, 2940: Too confusing to breakdown. I've already asked for clarification on this post with post #s for the quotes, etc. Still waiting.

The rest is what sparked this post in the first place.

My analysis of Simenon's play so far. He's posted suspicion lists and maintained a vote on Yos, all based on supposed meta reasons, including meta attacks on MBL. He's cleared CTD based on meta reasons. He might have something more relevant to the game in post #2939, but he needs to clean it up before I will backcheck his findings to see what I think about his observations. He's managed to get an apparently good meta on Yos and MBL (and CTD), but hadn't read the thread enough at the time of talking about his lists to know there were investigated innocents. If he is town his play certainly isn't being very helpful when it comes to scumhunting. I find it very lazy. More so, he has made a habit of trying to bait people (I find his actions with Yos to be baiting, some of his actions with MBL to be slightly baiting, and his response to me in post #2944 to be baiting). He claims that he has at some point directly responded to things I have said that I should have (from the tone of his post) responded back to. I find nothing in the above analysis that holds to this statement. He talked to me very little at all, and I certainly don't see anything in his posts where he asked me to comment on something that I ignored. I suppose he could be talking about the fact that he had (has?) Yos and I as his most likely scumpair. I didn't bother to respond to it at the time because I think it's ridiculous. First off, it was arrived at by a process of elimination based on what I consider to be a bad meta read of Yos. Secondly, if Yos is scum then he has to be the GF. That would make me a goon. I spent most of the early part of this day trying to convince you guys that Yos is the SK. Don't you find that downright bizarre play for a goon, Simenon? If I had managed to get Yos lynched I would have effectively doomed teamscum, or at least made it incredibly difficult for me to win. The chances of being SKed or lynched out of the remaining uninvestigated players would be too high for me to risk that kind of high stakes play. I can see a GF busing the goon at this stage in the game, but not vice versa.

I can understand a replacement not wanting to reread the entire game (2900+ posts!), but your effort has been sorely lacking of even the lower expectations I have for a replacement replacing town. Your play seems much more like scum who jumped into a game and threw around accusations hoping something would stick, not bothering to really try and find out what was happening up to that point. The insistence on using meta reads is also disturbing, considering I don't think you are familiar enough with the game to actually

have

a legitimate meta on any player in this game. They have been sufficiently hazy to make me confident in stating that. Unfortunately for you, I felt that TS entrance into the game had some of the same vibes (with listing his predecessor as being one of the most likely scum candidates, etc.).

It's become painfully obvious to me that, unless RB suicides, we aren't going to lynch him today. MBL and CTD aren't budging from their stance on him, and I doubt I can convince you at this point to vote for him. Unless we get deadlined and can lynch him with 3 votes, we are going to have to look elsewhere. So, let's try something new.

Unvote, Vote: Simenon

.

[BillyTwilight]

I didn't have to replace into this game. I replaced because you people looked pathetic from an outside view; and I'm not the only one with this opinion.

Gee, thanks.

It is incredibly opportunistic to vote someone who hasn't read the game in detail yet. The player who you are voting in this circumstance just doesn't know how to respond.

You've been in the game three weeks. Please let us know when your ready and we can start questioning your play.

"This wagon isn't going anywhere" is an absurd excuse. This is Day Five, players haven't even provided they're first reasons for voting yet.

?? What do you mean? Day 5 has been in progress for nearly 3 months. RB has been near the top of the list of lynch candidates that whole time. He's been at Lynch -1 since December 10. No one who isn't voting him has shown any interest in voting him, and he isn't posting. On top of that, this is the third time that RB's role has been on the verge of a lynch, and he has managed to avoid it. For whatever reason, there is great reluctance in this game to lynch him. So yes, I don't think that the wagon against him is going anywhere.

If anything it shows that he is throwing around lists of scum and town without having read the thread, or even just the last few pages of the thread carefully.

I think this is perfect evidense that I shouldn't respond to any of this. You clearly aren't reading any of my posts, or blatantly ignoring large parts of it. When I make it clear that these aren't fully informed opinions, and that I want to start discussion, it's rather weak to be attacked for the same thing two pages later. Why didn't you respond to this then? Why have you been so dormant? Is it because you were waiting for a mislynch on RB?

This is a total mischaracterization. I haven't been "dormant". I'm probably the only player who has given my thoughts on every player in the game in detail backed up with evidence from in game actions. I'm certainly the only player who has made a concrete discussion about who I think is scum exactly and why, in detail. I didn't post over the Christmas to New Year's Day. If that makes me "dormant", then I don't really know what to say.

Again, your basically making the excuse "I haven't really read this game yet, so no one should hold me responsible for any of the things I have said so far." So, does that mean that nothing in your post so far has any relevance? When are you going to start posting things that we can discuss then? Again, you've been in the game 3 weeks, and now you are saying that all of your contributions so far have been uninformed and basically meaningless? How long are you going to leave a "meaningless" vote on Yos then?

This is your argument. You haven't caught up in the game. You are throwing around players that you think is scum on, by your own admission, completely uninformed opinions. You haven't made any detectable effort to say anything that is based on what has happened in this game so far, except for post #2939, which is confusing. When asked to clarify that post (by more than just me), you have blatantly ignored those requests and asked me to comment on "the things I said in response to you which you ignored", of which I can't really find anywhere in your posts. When called out on your actions, you basically say "I don't really know what is going on in this game, so you shouldn't hold anything I have said against me."

You accuse me of waiting on a mislynch of RB, right after I removed my vote on RB. It's a loaded question. It's scummy.

Post #s 2927, 2928: Asks why CTD and RB aren't voting. Asks us to read Verbose III to look at MBL's play. Setting up another meta, that more than likely no one else in the game is going to follow up on if that game is much longer than a decade of pages.

I don't think I can successfully argue at this point if you don't understand why metagaming is useful.

I completely understand why metagaming is useful. Your straw-manning my argument. You are turning "I don't think you have read the game enough to develop a good meta, and the meta you have presented is very poor" into "I don't think metagaming is useful." Bogus.

Comparing himself to his play in other games? I don't understand this. Links to "Verbose III". BTW I had a quick look at that game, and it is long and confusing, and I couldn't even find MBL in it (I didn't look for very long).

Clearly.

Meh. Your tone is ridiculously condescending for someone who stated earlier (in regards to Yos' play, in post #2922), "I think you're scum because of your snide tone in your posts as the game has approached its end- I consider that the most consistent behavior of a scum close to endgame." Well, by that standard you have been snide with Yos, MBL, and myself.

---

Fonz, I'm more than happy to lynch RB. It's not happening unless someone changes their mind, and no one seems even close to doing that. I'm pursuing other avenues at least until RB starts posting again or gets replaced, or we get deadlined. Plus, I'm pretty happy at this point with lynching Simenon if I can convince others to go along with me.

[BillyTwilight]

Well, we have five days till deadline. You guys mostly know where I stand now, so I have some questions for everyone.

Rogueben

:
Simenon had a good question for you several pages ago, and I want an answer. Why are you not voting for someone?

Yos and MBL

:
Both of you have expressed your thoughts that you thought Jack's play was townish. I disagree, but for now I would like you to evaluate the play of that role from White through Simenon and give me your opinion on it. Please ignore (for now) Jack's play.

CTD

:
You voted for MBL and expressed a willingness to lynch me, and said that you would give reasons for both of those stances later. Please explain.

Simenon

:
Last we heard from you, you basically claimed to have mostly unformed and uninformed opinions about the players in the game. Now that you've had another week plus to read the game, can you please give us your current opinion on possible scum in this game.

Fonz

:
Can you just give us some thoughts on the game as a whole now? You have concentrated exclusively on RB for the past several weeks, and mostly one-liners at that. I'd like to hear some informed opinion from you on the rest of the players and recent events in this game.


We still have time for valuable discussion here guys. I'm particularly interested in Yos' and MBL's answer to the above question. I can't believe that I am the only player who finds Simenon and his predecessors to be extremely scummy. I'm also interested to hear CTD's response, especially in regards to the MBL vote, which seemed very awkward to me at that stage in the game, and distracting away from what I consider to be the real decision we need to make before the deadline.

[BillyTwilight]

MBL, I had a quick look through your posts and something seems strange to me. You originally felt that Simenon or Yos would be the best lynch today, then you started to answer my questions.

First, in post #2972 you talk about White's "sacrificial" play? I don't recall, and I did a very quick look through and couldn't find what you were talking about. Please explain.

You seem to find Toaster Strudel and Simenon to be significantly scummy; however, you have semi-cleared White on the feeling you got that he was genuinely concerned about finding scum. You have stated several times that you expect everyone in this game to be hunting scum genuinely (SK hunting mafia, mafia hunting SK, town hunting all). Why do you think that White's apparently legit scumhunting clears him as scum in this particular case?

I find you list of possibilities for the days outcome odd in post #2975. I understand that you want to lynch Yos - although I think it is pretty ridiculous to be wanting to lynch someone outside of the uninvestigated pool today. However, you list lynching RB as your second best option, followed by no-lynching. Are you indicating that you'd rather no lynch than lynch Simenon? That seems to be a radical turnaround from post #2971. Furthermore, you have consistently stated for the past several weeks if not months that you are not interested in a RB lynch. Why now do you find that a better option than lynching Simenon, who you have stated to find very scummy as well as his predecessors to some degree, with maybe a little backing off on White for perhaps not the best reasons in this particular game?

Furthermore, why do you think response to my questions for everyone has been so weak for everyone (particularly Yos, who I would have expected to be more forthcoming about his opinions at this point in the game) except yourself and to some degree RB?

As far as your question goes, I'd rank it 1.) Lynch Rogueben; 2.) Lynch Yos; 3.) No Lynch. Truth be told though, I prefer lynching Simenon to all of the above at this point. He handled my attack on him and subsequent vote very poorly, IMO.


Fonz:
You talk about your "list" in the last post; this is exactly what I want you to expand upon. You realize there are 3 scum left in this game, right? Even if you find RB to be scummier than every one else by far, I'd still like to hear more from you on what you find so scummy about RB, as well as where you think the other two scum are most likely to be if RB turns up SK or group scum?

Mod, can we get a prod for CTD and Simenon? I'd like to at least get a chance to hear from them before deadline hits tomorrow.

[BillyTwilight]

2 down, 1 to go.

I'm not interested in lynching The Fonz at any point in this game, based mostly on TCS' "gamble" play at the end of Day 3. Based on play to this point I also feel like Yos is unlikely to be scum for now, though I can't eliminate him as a possible GF.

Both CTD and MBL are extremely suspicious as far as I am concerned. I've already made an argument for a CTD/RB scumpair, but I'll post it here again for convenience.

CTD (mostly InHim):

Coron only had 2 posts in early day 1. Not enough to really consider for this analysis. On a reread, InHim should have been getting a lot more pressure than he did during his time in this game. His voting pattern is brutally bad. He voted for, in order: Shteven, TCS, Guardian, ABR, TCS, Guardian, Glork, ManaSpryte, and YB. So he never placed a vote on either of the confirmed goons. His FoS's are more interesting however: MoS and Jack.

Further analysis-

InHim entered the game with a RandomVote on Shteven and continued with initiating an attack against Glork. This is a little more significant with Glork now confirmed town. Given Glork's reputation on this site, it makes sense for scum to early on try and discredit Glork's play if they know he isn't part of the scumgroup. His first mention of YB is post #431, where he brushes aside YB's flip-flopping vote on BM. His next post is a vote of TCS for TCS' suggestion to not worry about untimely lynches until the vote count reaches abut 8 - considering the lynch vote was 10 at the time I pretty much agree with TCS, I find there to be little basis for this vote, although I can see town making it. The next post he adds Guardian to his "scummy list" for fence sitting with respect to BM. This is odd considering he had just given a pass to YB for similar actions. His next post finishes his reread and gives some general comments, specifically mentioning Jack and MBL as likely town. He also names Glork, Guardian, and TCS as a group that would have at least one scum player in it. He keeps up an attack against Glork for a couple of more posts, then vote hops to Guardian in post #575. In context this hop doesn't make a lot of sense, because his previous posts (#571 and #573) were about Glork.

More of the same, until post #837. He jumps back several pages and addresses MoS's post #796, in which MoS voted YB. He basically says "I don't think you are scum, MoS, but you are on the wrong track," and then he FoS's MoS. Which is just strange. By his own admission he doesn't FoS much, and he just got through saying he didn't think MoS was scum, yet he FoSed him anyway? I think this is scum directing scum.

Continuing: He addresses MoS's rebutal post #849 (which is a weak rebuttal, anyway) by saying that MoS was "wandering off to start a wagon no one is interested in". He also makes a habit at the end of day 1 of being agitated with how long the day is going, and generally seems to be impatient for night starting. His post #926 comes after my massive post against YB. Instead of saying why he thinks my post is inaccurate (which he never attempts to do) he attacks HungryJoe for voting YB.

You guys just can't end a Day...[/agitated]

Wow. Um, Billy. That's a pretty freakin' awesome post. I think I'm sold on YB being scum here (not like it takes much convincing, the way he's been acting), but unless YB comes up as scum, I'm not sure that Guardian is scum here. He's under a lot of scrutiny, sure, but I don't think he's that unsensible, and while he's obviously something to watch, I still think TCS looks a lot worse than Guardian, really.

Anywho, I'm still quite convinced of YB at this point.

Vote : YogurtBandit

On the brighter side, HungryJoe also seems to be scum.

BTW: selling my vote to the highest bandwagon. Inquire inside.

He continues on this pathway of claiming he will vote for the person with the most votes, even though that might not be where his highest suspicion lies. He continues on for several post mostly complaining about the day being too long, mingled with calling Glork scum and asking a vig to kill Glork in the night. Finally he changes his vote to ABR, based on "more people I think are scum are on YB's wagon"; his vote is ultimately the vote that gets ABR lynched. I'd also like to note that his logic here is circular. Some of the people that he had called scummy he claimed to find suspicious because they voted YB. He then refuses to vote YB because some of the people on his wagon are people he thinks are scummy. It's a strange way of explaining why his vote doesn't end on YB, instead of just saying "I don't find YB scummy" or the like. He complains more about how long the day ends and then... well, the day ends.

MoS dies in the night. Zindy (HungryJoe) also dies in the night.

InHim's first post quotes his own post where he FoSed MoS. This is blatantly trying to make it look like he was onto MoS in day 1, when really he was much more going after Glork, Guardian, TCS, and to some extent HungryJoe. He uses MoS's play to highlight his continued suspicion of Guardian, Glork, and TCS. It should be noted that HJ was voting YB. If YB and InHim were scum together, that might make some sense for wanting to kill HJ, although by the time the night phase started I think Zindy had already replaced in. Maybe they thought Zindy would try to justify HJ's stance with regards to YB, and do a better job of it than HJ had done so far. Maybe they simply didn't want a fresh set of eyes looking over the thread and finding connections that everyone else had missed. Hard to say. He ends it with a vote on TCS.

His next real post is a vote of Guardian. A couple of things of significance. His vote is in post #1526; Guardian had voiced his intent to claim in post #1521, strongly hinting that he had a power role, and asking for no more votes but saying he would claim if he reached L-1. We all know how the Guardian claim turned out, but it's important that InHim had no way of knowing that Guardian was lying at the time. He forced the claim anyway, called Glork's vote on Guardian bussing, and after Guardian's claim insisted that we lynch a claimed power role anyway. At this point, not only was Guardian claiming power and voting InHim, he was also seemed to be becoming suspicious of Sarcastro. InHim-scum would have had plenty of reasons to want him out of the game, and went for it, hoping that someone would step in and hammer Guardian while Guardian was still at L-1.

When the lynch doesn't happen he makes a ridiculous attack against Glork. In post #1543 he attacks Glork for "covering up for his scumbuddy, Guardian". When Glork rebuts this he attacks Glork for trying to "set-up" Guardian for a lynch. He plays both sides of the deck, which is just ridiculous, and then switches his vote to Glork. Inhim then spends the next several posts continually flopping around on Guardian and Glork. One second he thinks they are scum together, then he thinks Glork may be the SK and Guardian is mafia, etc, etc. Then we reach post #1693 where InHim over-reacts to one vote from Yos. Other players had been narrowing down on InHim, but Yos placed the first vote, and InHim immediately tries to placate the situation, asking what he has to do to stay away from a vote.

A little more defense of his attack on Guardian and desire to lynch a claimed doctor, and then post #1748 where he congratulates YB on a post and says "I think YB seems townish here" - which is a little odd since he had pretty much ignored YB for the majority of Day 2 and never seemed like he was suspicious of YB in the first place. And a little more odd considering what happened at the end of the day.

Around this time people start advocating a Manaspryte lynch, and InHim jumps right in with post #1762. This is

extremely

odd considering he hasn't mentioned Mana at all yet, and he ignores all of his "top" suspects in doing so: Glork, TCS, Guardian. He seems to have given up getting one of them lynched and is very very nervous about how precarious his position has gotten in the game up to that point - his push for those lynches was starting to get him in trouble. The very next post YB follows suit and votes ManaSpryte.

People jump on YB for this unprovoked vote (although interestingly no one attacks InHim for the same thing). Within a couple of posts InHim has reversed directions again and votes YB in post #1771. When questioned about it he basically balks at why he thinks YB is scummy... but he says that if YB is scum we should basically lynch Shteven next. However, instead of explaining why he voted for someone who he thought was "townish" in post #1748, he continues to say that Guardian and Glork should die. From this point on he seems to just act like he always thought YB was scum (see post #1789 - the tone implies that YB is a scummy player, and he groups him with Guardian who he has been hammering on for the whole day). He continues to attack Guardian and Glork for the rest of the day, although he is voting YB.

Shortly after this the wagon on Sarc picks up. Jack unvotes YB and votes InHim, and InHim asks him to vote YB again. At this point InHim is high on a YB lynch (very suddenly, considering he tried to derail one on day 1 and pretty much ignored YB till late day 2). His posts stop here for day 2.

Sarc is lynched, no night kill for mafia.

InHim's last real post of the game, #1950. He congratulates town on getting Sarc, backs off of Guardian, and makes a half hearted attempt to provoke more Glork-hunting, then drops out of the game, very, very early in day 3.

AlyG replaces, but doesn't post. CTD replaces and has a read-in-chunks approach to getting into the game, and mostly doesn't get called on InHim's play (yet). I'll concentrate on his Jack and YB/RB analysis, as that is what I think is key here. His first post has both listed as probably town, and by the end of his analysis they both take different directions. He claims to be suspicious of YB dropping of the planet before he was replaced, but ends with thinking YB is townish, but wanting to vote White. Since then he has commented on RB's not posting at the end of the day yesterday, but mostly still seems to be leaning towards a White lynch.

There is more in depth analysis to be done with InHim and CTD, but I think this is the general gist and I have neither the time nor patience to continue with it now.

This was posted pretty early Day 4, shortly after CTD had replaced in, and mostly concentrates on inHim's play. Here is my analysis on CTD's play since he replaced in, concentrating on his analysis/interactions of the players that were alive as of yesterday.

Post #2508: His first read-through post. He finds MBL to be town, TCS to be scummy, had no real read or comment on BT, Jack to be town, YB to be probably not mafia, Yos to be scummy.

Post #2601: Continues his read-through. Find's MBL to be less townish, but still not likely scum, although he mentions MBL as "SK-aware", and notes that MBL is doing "one thing I know he particularly likes to do as scum, and that is predicting scum behavior (Post 934), but as long as it’s a singular occurence, I’m willing to pass it off as a general quirk of his." He finds TCS to be much more townish now. He finds BT to be "arguably the most pro-town looking player at this point," and states that "it would require a substantial amount of evidence against him for me to consider him a threat." He finds Jack to be scummy based on his "minimalist" play. His analysis of YB becomes much clearer:

YogurtBandit – Certainly the most interesting character during this period, as much of the discussion revolves around him. The first post of his I found interesting was Post 516, which really seems out of place and forced (and combined with the several “confirm votes” he placed on TCS, adds to my impression that his desire to get TCS lynched is disproportionate). The case BillyTwilight presented against him doesn’t coincide with my own read of YogurtBandit too much, but I have to say it’s pretty persuasive.

One thing I find noteworthy is how hard it seemed for a wagon to take off on him. I would have expected the reaction to be a lot stronger following that BT analysis. Normally, this indicates a good wagon, but I’m not so sure in this case. Both known scum were already voting for YB at that point, and MoS was campaigning pretty heavily for his lynch, and seeing as there were a number of acceptable town wagons going on at the same time, I find it somewhat unlikely for him to bus.

Having already taken a peak at the end-of-day vote count, I don’t feel like further analysing it at this point, but I’ll definitely get back to this in the next part of my analysis. At this point, I don’t really know what to think of YB, since he’s connected to a variety of people, and I don’t feel like I have a grasp of the big picture yet.

Interesting because he thinks I am very likely town due to my initial long post against YB, but doesn't really agree with it and passes off YB's interaction with MoS and Sarc to be "unlikely" bussing.

He continues with Yos, who he still finds scummy, mostly because he found Yos's play to be bland and unimpressive.

Post #2645: More read-through. He finds MBL to be a likely SK candidate, doesn't see anything to change his mind about TCS, still thinks BT is town but too single-minded in his attack against YB. He is still frustrated with Jack's play, but doesn't find him particularly scummy. He thinks that YB is even more likely town at this point based on MoS and Sarc's interactions with him, stating that it "strongly indicates that he's not one of them." Still finds Yos scummy.

Post #2649: More read-through. Says that MBL is sending up "alarm-bells" with his "friendly advice" to scum. Continues to state that he doesn't find MBL to be likely mafia, but doesn't say why. He finds TCS scummy again, based on his interaction with Glork and Guardian, and his open preference to not lynch Sarc. Has found BT to be more middlish now, based mostly on the fact that BT's posting lessened a lot during this period. He keys in on Jack trying to avoid a Sarc lynch and his suspicion is aroused by the play. Notes that YB pretty much dropped off the face of the earth as well, except for a vote against Sarc, which is in his favor. Based on inactivity states that he is not sure YB is town anymore. Finds Yos to be slightly less scummy.

Post #2695: More read-through. Claims he's been "quite successful" at reading MBL recently, and states with "modest confidence" that MBL is not scum. Is unsure of TCS. Doesn't think that BT is scum based on BT's large attack against Kinetic and subsequent change of heart about Kinetic. He decides that he wants Jack lynched immediately based on Jack's response to the Guardian fake-claim. Coming out of this post it is obvious that he really wants Jack lynched. He is non-committal with regards to YB, who didn't post anything of substance in this section of the read-through. Finds Yos to be suspicious, but the innocent result from Glork "helps".

Post #2717: Finishes his read-through. Still prefers a White lynch. By the finish of his reread he finds White = scum, TCS, Yos, and Shteven as high possibility scum, BT, RB, Kinetic, and MBL as likely town, and Glork = town.

So of note, by the time he was well into the game he found Simenon's predecessors to be the most likely scum candidates. Note that he has RB, myself, and MBL as his least likely scum-candidates (as of this point) in the game. This changes by the end of the day yesterday for myself and MBL, but not for RB, so I am going to look and see if I can find in his posts something that leads to this reversal. Continuing.

I noticed something interesting in he post #2746. He states something about Yos calling him "fairly likely the Godfather." I am reading CTD in isolation, so I haven't had a chance to go back and look at what that was about, but I want to check up on it, and I'd like Yos to comment on this if he will go back and see what his thought were at the time. Interestingly he has a bit of a disagreement with RB on the merit of looking at players outside the uninvestigated pool (RB obviously wanted to do so) and says that he find's RB wanting to look at investigated players to be slightly scummy. He quickly though turns his focus back to White.

At the start of day 4 he expresses some interest in RB's whereabouts for the end of day 3, but mostly he focuses on White, who he thinks still could be scum. It is shortly after this that I post with my theory that RB = goon and CTD = GF. CTD's response, in post #'s 2804 and 2811 is very interesting. First, he quickly notes that he doesn't want to defend inHim's actions (understandably), then he mis-characterizes my previous analysis. At the time I was pretty convinced that Yos = SK, CTD = GF, and RB = goon. I stated that I was unsure of who to lynch, but I was leaning towards lynching RB. He then stated that I was concentrating on people outside of the uninvestigated group, and that I therefore was likely scum with White because I wanted to lynch outside of that group (he never says this outright, but his argument implies that I am looking to lynch outside the uninvestigated pool), which is something I never said or intended; quite the contrary. He then defended RB by stating that my renewed desire to lynch RB was based on my assumption that he is the godfather. His defense doesn't follow, because I never made assumptions other than TCS = town and the SK was in the group of investigated, based on the Kinetic kill, both of which he agreed with in these posts. I was wrong about Yos, obviously (one of my flaws is to assume that the scum I am hunting in a given game is experienced and would base night kills on what is best for them in a game, or at least not make kills that are detrimental to their cause, of which I think is the case with White killing Kinetic). The point is I was laying out how I felt about the state of the game as a whole, based on what I perceived from players actions and interactions with others. CTD tried to turn it into me assuming he was the GF and trying to get RB lynched based on this. This is where CTD's real defending of RB starts to become apparent. We have an argument about wither it is better to lynch the SK or goon at this point, and he continues to go after White, claiming that we were working for a "common goal", in post #2813, although White was voting me (as an SK candidate) at the time. He also wants me to explain how he could be the GF if White turned up to be the goon, which also misrepresented my argument, as my point was based on interactions between YB, MoS, Sarc, and InHim, for the most part. I.e. - I never said he was the GF regardless of who the goon was, but he wanted me to defend my argument based on possibilities that I wasn't arguing for.

Also in post #2813 he states that there is clear evidence, "though not decisive", that RB is not mafia in the thread, citing MoS and Sarc's behavior with respect to YB. This is a taking a bit of a stronger stand on the issue than he did in his original read-through, and is an increase in his defense of RB.

He analyzes day 1 votes on some popular wagons in post #2819. His result is a little inconclusive; for the most part he seems to be building more suspicion of RB and MBL in this post. It looks to me like he is trying to back away a little bit from his previous stance that RB was most likely town. In the end he states that he has gained a lot more doubt about Jack, BT, MBL, and RB.

In post #2834 he chastises Yos for his play, calling it lazy effectively, and asks him a lot of questions mostly pertaining to how Yos feels about MBL. It's interesting because this is where his desire to lynch MBL starts to really gain steam. It was also about the time that the MBL/Yos feud really started to kick into gear.

Post #2890: He again states that he doesn't like the RB wagon. He wants to avoid it based on the fact that a lot of people (even MBL, to some extent) had expressed a willingness to lynch RB, which made him think that RB was town. He then starts a major offensive against MBL as the goon, implicating either myself or Yos as MBL's partner and calling MBL's attack against either of us possible distancing. In retrospect, this post feels like CTD trying to encourage the MBL/Yos feud and distract away from the Rb lynch. It's difficult to say though, because MBL's play during this period is extremely suspicious, and a lot of CTD's points about MBL are genuine and I tend to agree with them, but I'll get to those on my forthcoming analysis of MBL's play.

Post #2891: I find his early remarks interesting with respect to me. He says that he doesn't find me likely to be the SK anymore, and explains why. He seems much less convinced about Toaster Strudel (White's replacement) than before, and concentrates on a possible MBL/Yos or MBL/TS scumpair, and states that he hasn't given much thought to the SK. I need to decide if this is genuine or not. If CTD is the GF, then he has spent most of his time in trying to determine who the SK is, perhaps disguising his suspicions as a mafia hunt. In short, did he ever feel like MBL was the SK? I find it strange that he hasn't been looking for the SK, but eliminates myself as a possible SK and then feels much better about me. Perhaps at the time he

was

SK hunting and when he decided I wasn't likely the SK, he let that slip a little in this post. It seems strange to me that he would not be thinking a lot about who the SK was, but in the same post make a specific note about who he thought the SK wasn't.

His next post is some time later, #2945. This is his vote MBL post and willing to lynch BT post. He said he'd explain both desires later. His last post is #2950, where he says that he will explain his vote and his flip flop on me later, but never does. It is his last post in the game.


Okay, so what to make of it. He makes a clear pattern of protecting RB; the question is was he scum protecting scum or town convinced that RB was town. He also showed an intense desire to lynch or kill Jack and his successors, all the way up till he swapped his attack to MBL. Said attack on MBL came before I really started to campaign against Simenon; I wish he had posted more after this occurred so we could get more of an idea on how he felt about Simenon and his predecessors and how that had changed since day 3 and early day 4. It is clear that he thought at one point that Jack/White/TS/Simenon was scum; couple that with RB also voting Simenon at the end explains why Simenon was killed. Unfortunately all of the voting for Simenon as well as the setting of the deadline happened after CTD's last post, so we can't tell if he would have moved his vote to Simenon before the deadline. I'm inclined to believe that CTD's vote for MBL and his willingness to lynch me was more to protect RB than to hunt the SK. I'll have to think on this more, especially with respect to MBL's play during the same time frame.


As for MBL, I'll post a (mostly) day 4 analysis of his play in the next couple of days, as well as a comment on his opening day 5 posts, which I find to be slightly inconsistent with some things he said on day 4. Too Tired right now. The main point is that I find both CTD and MBL to be protecting RB yesterday. One of them is town who thought RB was town. Distinguishing which it is will probably point out the GF for us.

Note: We are in a grant renewal year in my research lab, and as such my lab time has gotten considerably larger. I'll try to post as often as I can, but these long posts take way too long to compose... unfortunately, that's how I play and I can't help myself. I'll try to be quicker from here on out, but don't expect posts on an everyday basis.

[BillyTwilight]

Hey guys, I'm still here, and I've been trying to put a post together on MBL. My usual lengthy analysis isn't going to cut it though; he simply has too many posts. I'll post what I have as soon as possible, but my home computer just died and I don't have a lot of time to post at work. I'll try to have something major by the end of the week. Sorry.

[BillyTwilight]

MBL, your case against me lacks context, and to be honest, I don't really understand it. It looks to me like you are saying:

1.) BT looks very protown.

2.) YB mentioned him a lot in these quotes I am providing, and he also mentioned MoS and Sarc a lot, so that makes BT scum with him.

You completely missing the point that I was the driving force on his bandwagon. Before my vote against him he had only 1 vote on him. After the votes piled up to 5, and by the end of the day he was looking to be lynched until a crap-wagon (that you helped ferment) lynched Albert. He was asked several times to give a defense to the accusations I brought against him, and the post that you quoted with bolding was his defense against that post. Of course he mentioned me multiple times.

He was responding to me trying to get him lynched.

Did you expect him not to mention his prime accuser?

Let's give some full context to this part of the game. I voted YB in post #759. Shortly after MoS voted him in post #796, unvoting you, his initial suspect. YB completely ignored the votes and didn't respond to any of the shorter accusation I made against him. I made my initial typical lengthy case post against him in post #885. Upon making said case, HungryJoe and Jack voted YB, and MoS reasserted his belief that YB was scum. Furthermore several players (Shteven, ABR, Yos) thought the case I made against him was good but didn't vote. This was on pages 36 and 37. Even after this quick wagon (which contained both Plez and MoS), YB didn't bother to mention me or respond to my attacks... though he did go back and forth with MoS a bit in post #s 899, 900, and 908.

Sarc replaced Plezz in post #1042. He finished his reread in post #1077, unvoted and voted YB. Between these two posts YB barely mentioned me at all, though he did undertake a major OMGUS of Jack and claimed that Jack's only reason for voting him was following my lead. As soon as Sarc gets involved in the game YB starts interacting with him and MoS, post #'s 1080-1089, finally culminating in post #1090, where he finally attempts to defend himself against my attack that occurred nearly 200 posts and 8 pages earlier. Note that during that period he never attempted to refute my attack, even though he had over 30 posts and had come under much larger scrutiny than he had previously. Note that he also had several direct interactions with MoS, and initiated a direct conversation with Sarc, but avoided coming after me like the plague. It was only after MoS and Sarc effectively forced him to face my accusations that he tried to rebuff my attack.

You make your main point for suspicion of me in post #3024.

Check out this Yogurt post in response to Billy's huge attack. The post is significantly Billy-Mos-Sarccentric:

Im sorry, I wont post frequently anymore when I play games. The thing is, Even if I do contradict myself on the bandwagon thing, I have reasons more than others who just say "I agree With

Billy Twilight

, Yogurt is scum, I finished my Re-read, I still think YB is scum, I think YB is scum for talking about I think he is scum" So, Some of the pepole who are on my bandwagon for that, you are contradicting yourself.

Sarc

, I mmainly pointing at you because

BBB

(Plessiez) Was voting me without

BT's

pbpa, and

you

all of the sudden come in and re-vote me after reading this pbpa. Let's face it, This bandwagon is easier to jump on than Guardian's, Which is the operfect oppurtunity for scum.

FOS:Sarc

. I think I will Do some more pbpa's of the pole on my bandwagon, and Im sure I'll find at least 1 person acting more scummy than me.( Look at Jack, and

BT

, barely posting, Lurking, Starting Bandwagons, Looking Pro-town). I actually belive

MoS

is the only one on the bandwagon that is Pro-town for the most part, since

his

case one me contains more info from

himself

and less info from

Billy's

Pbpa, but maybe that just what he wants.

Bt's

Contstant, "Maybe Yes, Maybe No" Comments about me are odd,

I definetly think he's signaling his buddies

or He wants to point Fingers at me( Fingers of suspicon, in a way, but not nesscarily, since he's voting me anyways.) I think

I will look for connections between Billy and the pepole on this bandwago(Jack,HungryJoe,Mos,Sarcastro/BBB

)I still think this pbpa is more of a (and this will sound really stupid when Isay it) "Scum Roundup" Than an Actuall acusation. But

Billy

does have good stuff on me, I must say, So Im unsure about

Billy's

intentions. I will say, He's made it very easy for pepole to vote me and get away with it. If thats what you wanted

Billy

, Good Job.

Fos: BillyTwilight

Bolds

are BT/MoS/Sarc references.

Unfortunately, you failed to give the quote in context. It originally appeared in post #1090:

<snip>

Well, Why would Inot be latched on? You and your scumbuddies are latched onto me, so I dont think you're in any posistion to be accusing me of that. I think? Not sure again. Noted.

Wait, theres more.

What I read from all of this. YB has had 127 posts so far this game. The vast majority have been inconsequential, and most aren't listed in the above analysis. This bothers me, because it feels like a player is trying to look very active without at lot of contribution. YB also constantly accuses people of bandwagoning, although (especially very early) he partook of wagons almost exclusively. His early vote/unvote of BM reeks of scum being caught jumping on a wagon with no reason and then backing down and trying to save face. He seemed very quick to follow Glork's lead in going after HJ. His "random" pbpas are forced and he made several attempts to defend them that seem to slightly contradict each other. He's been OMGUSy with Jack and TCS and he became very manipulative and preachy with Jack about his playstyle.

Im sorry, I wont post frequently anymore when I play games. The thing is, Even if I do contradict myself on the bandwagon thing, I have reasons more than others who just say "I agree With Billy Twilight, Yogurt is scum, I finished my Re-read, I still think YB is scum, I think YB is scum for talking about I think he is scum" So, Some of the pepole who are on my bandwagon for that, you are contradicting yourself. Sarc, I mmainly pointing at you because BBB (Plessiez) Was voting me without BT's pbpa, and you all of the sudden come in and re-vote me after reading this pbpa. Let's face it, This bandwagon is easier to jump on than Guardian's, Which is the operfect oppurtunity for scum. FOS:Sarc. I think I will Do some more pbpa's of the pole on my bandwagon, and Im sure I'll find at least 1 person acting more scummy than me.( Look at Jack, and BT, barely posting, Lurking, Starting Bandwagons, Looking Pro-town). I actually belive MoS is the only one on the bandwagon that is Pro-town for the most part, since his case one me contains more info from himself and less info from Billy's Pbpa, but maybe that just what he wants. Bt's Contstant, "Maybe Yes, Maybe No" Comments about me are odd, I definetly think he's signaling his buddies or He wants to point Fingers at me( Fingers of suspicon, in a way, but not nesscarily, since he's voting me anyways.) I think I will look for connections between Billy and the pepole on this bandwago(Jack,HungryJoe,Mos,Sarcastro/BBB)I still think this pbpa is more of a (and this will sound really stupid when Isay it) "Scum Roundup" Than an Actuall acusation. But Billy does have good stuff on me, I must say, So Im unsure about Billy's intentions. I will say, He's made it very easy for pepole to vote me and get away with it. If thats what you wanted Billy, Good Job. Fos: BillyTwilight

On a side note, with this pbpa I feel much better about TCS, simply because of the way YB has gone after him. I don't think they are mafia together, and TCS could be a a SK, but coupled with TCS' play in Clue and the style that he seems to be adapting lately, he's lowered on my radar now.

Ithink I caught you. How would you know that TCS is definetly Mafia? Distancing? Perhaps Tcs isnt voting me so it isnt Omgussy and so you ahve one scum not on me? How are you sure that I am not the Sk? Im not saying I am, But I think you are sure im just a bad looking townie. Distancing TCS away from this all is noted.

Mos and Sarc, Im sure you are going to say How crazy my logic is right now, and that I'm blowing all of this out of porportion, so you may need to tell me exactly why I am. Also, you keep saying "Im even more sure of my vote now." Thats exactaly like saying a Confirm vote 8 times! So I hope you are nopt attacking me for that only, because you are being extremely contradictory.

The bolded statements are YB's rebuttal of my attack, the normal text from my original attack against him. This is the end of said post; I linked to it if anyone wants to see the whole thing in context. The main point is that he is specifically answering my accusations against him. MBL, how would you expect him to do that without mentioning me on multiple occasions, especially since he had reverted by this point to OMGUSing everyone on his wagon? Again, the context here is that things had started to look bad for YB. He was trying to ignore my attack against him as much as possible. Furthermore, one of the players who was voting for him was Plezz, a scumpartner who was being replaced. YB had already shown an interest in how the replacements were going to vote, see post #1056. I believe that YB was hoping Sarc would move his vote elsewhere, especially since Sarc had earlier indicated that he was going to follow Glork's lead and vote for Shteven. Instead, Sarc maintained his vote against YB, and then both MoS and Sarc pushed YB to defend himself against my attack. At this point YB became agitated/pissed off, as evidence by his multiple post #s 1088, 1089, and 1090. He basically admits to trying to appease MoS and Sarc here as the only reason for rebuffing my accusations.

His conclusion is a pissed off FoS of Sarc. He actually says that MoS looks to be town, which he flip-flops on later. And he insinuates that I am the scum leader directing a whole slew of scum to come after him. The point to be made is that he in some way tries to clear MoS, his fellow goonie, but MBL believes that he tries to sell me down the river, knowing that I am the GF? He even concedes that my arguments against him are good, but he still tries to make me look scummy. I nailed him to a wall, MBL, and his only option was to OMGUS me. And, again, OF COURSE he talked about me a lot. It was my case against him that got him in so much trouble in the first place. Furthermore, you ignored the most crucial evidence against your argument, in that he clearly draws a line between myself and all the others on his wagon on one side, and MoS/Sarc on the other. You conveniently left this out (the last paragraph of the above quote). He basically begs MoS and Sarc to save him, to explain what he needs to do to get out of the mess he is in. Note that he doesn't address me, or anyone else on his wagon, in that paragraph. Further note that you left this part out because it doesn't look nearly as good in your argument.

Sloppy distancing? Here, YB associates MoS+Billy:

I have chosen this game to be the subject of an experiment, if you would be kind enough to comply. I would like everyone to post

at least

one thing that you find suspicious of me so far this game. If you don't have anything other than what's been said, that's ok, say it anyways. This game seems ideal to test this, because I don't recall a lot of people being that suspicious of me since I replaced into the game.

Well, I think You are scum in a way or Connected with Twilight somehow.

The point I was making earlier about his flip-flop on MoS. Again, YB can't keep his story straight about who he thinks is scum or not scum, except for me, because his only defense left against the wagon that I built against him was to repeatedly call me scum.

Also interesting is this July 4th post where YB calls Billy the GF:

Well, Billy, would you care to respond to my paragraph about how I think you are the scum leader/GF?

Note that YB never wrote a paragraph accusing Billy of being the scum leader/GF.

Please let me know if you find it--I couldn't.

At the time I took this to mean exactly the post that I quoted above, where he mentioned how "You and your scumbudies are latched on to me," followed by, "I definetly think he's signaling his buddies," etc. He didn't call me the GF in those quotes, but he certainly implied that I was the scum-captain.

Post #'s 516, 520: Another confirm vote for TCS (woohoo!). Again points out TCS contradictory play; YB's really latched onto that and trying for the kill, I think.

Well, Why would Inot be latched on? You and your scumbuddies are latched onto me, so I dont think you're in any posistion to be accusing me of that. I think? Not sure again. Noted.

It's eerie how often YB talks about/to his scumpartners MoS and Sarc. And I'll have to confirm this, but anecdotally it appears he pays more attention to Billy than to anyone else.

You'll definitely have to confirm that, because your wrong. He tried to ignore me until he was forced not to. And again, it's natural for a player to mention his main accuser more than other players in the game. During the course of this game I have brought large pressure against YB, Guardian, Glork, Kinetic, Simenon, Yos, CTD, and to a lesser extent several other players. If you go back and look at the points in the games where I attacked those players you will find that there posts are also largely BT-centric in those times. That's the way the game works, and the fact that you are trying to make me look like scum because YB was forced to defend himself against me and as a result talked about me a lot is tenuous at best and stretching to find something to take the pressure off of you at worst.

Now that I know he wasn't idiot town but was in fact REALLY BAD SCUM, I think analyzing his interactions may be a key to winning this game.

Restated: Twilight's play looks pro-town. Yogurt's play makes him look VERY MUCH like Billy's sloppy goon. Can't believe I've been lazy enough to miss all this earlier, but I never thought YB was scum.

Let's get some more context in the BT-YB interaction. I never wavered from my vote for YB on Day 1. Both MoS and Sarc did. MoS vote hopped back to you in post #1201. AutumnEvenings makes an interesting point about this in post #1202. We had a deadline looming, YB was one of the leading wagons, and MoS moved a vote on you with little reasoning and no real hope of getting you lynched (in fact, I believe that his vote on you was the only vote on you at the time, and it was placed on you on Jul 7, 3 days before the deadline.) It was just after this that xyzzy voted ABR, and the massive deadline-wagon on ABR took off that eventually led to his mislynch, just three days later. MoS kept his vote off of YB for most of that time, and he certainly never posted anything that was a real attempt at getting YB lynched over Albert. His post #1285 seems to be encouraging the YB wagon, but in reality he doesn't really try to convince anyone to vote YB, and furthermore he doesn't move his vote back himself. He finally revotes YB late on Jul 9, less than 12 hours before the deadline. At this point it would have taken YB 2 more votes to surpass ABR, and that wasn't likely to happen, especially since MoS couldn't have really foreseen Guardian jumping on the YB wagon, since Guardian had been defending YB for the majority of Day 1. The point is that even though MoS claimed to support the YB lynch, he never made a concerted attempt to actually convince anyone else to vote for YB once the Albert wagon took over. It's obvious that he was content with the Albert mislynch. Same goes for Sarc. He never actually removed his vote from YB, but he probed the waters to see if the possibility of a Guardian lynch could happen - see post #s 1304, and 1383. Again, he never attempted to convince anyone to join the YB wagon, and his actions show that he was also content with a mislynch.

Not so BillyTwilight. See my post #1312, on Jul 09, less than 12 hours before deadline. While MoS and Sarc where content with a ABR lynch, I actively tried to dissuade it. I defended ABR, who I thought was bad/frustrated town, and tried to increase my attack on YB, including my rebuttal to his answer to my original attack. So, less than 12 hours before deadline, when a bad wagon had sprung up within a couple of days and would have allowed a mislynch that no one could have blamed me for, when other known scum where waffling on YB and certainly content with a ABR lynch, one that I could have just kept my mouth shut for 12 more hours and assured, I actively tried to save a known townie and attempted to convince others that YB was scum and to vote for him.

Further evidence is that for most of the remaining game I was still highly suspicious of YB and his replacements. MBL, you have stated yourself that you don't think that scum would be bussing yesterday. How then do you explain the fact that my vote was on RB for the majority of the day, and that I attempted to hammer him in post #2898:

<snip>

Yos decision to vote Rogueben when he did is difficult for me to interpret. It fell right after TS decided to join with MBL in voting Yos, leaving both Yos and RB tied in vote count. I have a feeling that Yos was scared things would go against him, and tried to get the vote moved back towards RB. I still have Yos high on my SK list, but this action could conceivably be done by town or scum. I think that if the RB wagon sputters out we are going to lynch Yos.

But the RB wagon isn't going to sputter out. I am suspicious of Yos, but it is ridiculous to lynch an investigated before we nail the goon. Plus, I've had a lot of second thoughts about Yos as the SK. I keep getting this feeling that White could have made the Kinetic kill, and I didn't really like Jack's play in this game. Add to that Toaster Strudel's gaff when he replaced in and I just can't feel confident enough in Yos=SK to allow that lynch to happen.

Besides, I've been wanting to do this since day 1.

Vote: Rogueben

.

I miscounted the votes, missed that when Strudel had unvoted and voted Yos, the person he had been voting was RB. You can make the argument that this is a ruse and I did it intentionally, but the context of my vote and my follow up post when I realized my mistake makes it pretty clear that I wanted RB lynched. In fact, my vote would have stayed on RB had Simenon not replaced right after my vote for RB and proceeded to play in some of the most scummy fashion possible. By the way, I was right about him too.

MBL, you have to admit that all of the points you made about myself-RB came during the period of the game where I was pushing hard for his lynch, and that naturally he mentions me and talks about me being scum a lot. He was a known OMGUSer. He did it all of day 1, with multiple players, and it was his only defense of the attack I brought against him. You haven't shown any kind of collusion or connection that happened between us for the earlier part of day 1 when he was trying to ignore my attack against him, or for any part of later days.

By the way, MBL, why do you think that YB, who you now think was making obvious scumtells and basically giving away his partners in thread, decided to do a completely "random" pbpa on you in post #410, where he stated that "I dont think MBL is scum at all. I dont think there are any signs of it." What do you think of his subsequent answers when people asked him why in the world he decided to do a random pbpa on a player he had barely mentioned previously?

I'll try and post more tomorrow; I stayed late at work tonight to get this in. I still have to finish my analysis of MBL's play. On a high note, I'm trying to convince the wife to let me get an iMac, so I might have net access at home again soon.

[BillyTwilight]

I'm not trying to make you look like scum, I'm looking for evidence and hoping people will comment on it. And you did, to your credit, and you sound a little too defensive about it. Do you really think I'm trying to frame you up unfairly here? Do you really think the work I just did is the work of scum desperately grasping for anything, or is this new "discovery" in the game valid and worthy of analysis? (your alignment aside)

Given the context of how I play the game, what about my response sounds too defensive to you?

As to the latter question, yeah I do. It seems odd to me that you would be at L-1, with one of the complaints by Fonzy in post #3018 being that you hadn't done any scumhunting this day. This obviously was weighing on your mind a bit, because you alluded to it in post #3025. The fact that I find your "case" to be pretty poorly executed makes me feel like you are trying to appease Yos/Fonz more than anything else.

As to the part about not understanding your case against me, it mostly stems from the belief that you really aren't making a case. You basically threw out some ideas then asked Yos and Fonzy to interpret them for you. I don't think that I have ever seen you do that before, at least, not when the game is as advanced as this one. Your usually much more affirmative in your convictions. The fact that you asked them to remove votes from you while contemplating this evidence only makes me feel more like you are more interested in getting votes off of you rather than trying to find scum.

Add to that that I seriously feel like you are misrepresenting the actual content of the game (particularly leaving out that last bit of YB where he appealed to MoS and Sarc for help to get out of the wagon that I initiated against him) makes your arguments seem even worse. Further, you haven't bothered to comment on my rebuttal of your analysis, only tried to explain your motivation, which I feel means you don't really have strong convictions about the points you make.

[BillyTwilight]

OK, well I suppose you can be wrong sometimes too. Or scum.

I post a lot from work. When I do, I'm not going to be brutally thorough and even-handed. I also have no problem, EVER, making an "unfair" post where I just dump evidence into a thread. You try to paint that as sleazy, saying that it gives Fonz and Yos room to "interpret" or something... it's funny, because if you think I'm scum then you'd trust them to interpret properly. And if you don't know if they're scum, then you'd be interested in seeing their interpretations of the evidence I present.

I find it sleazy not because of the content of the posts, although I do find that to be reaching. I find it sleazy because you waited till you were at L-1 and players were asking you to scumhunt more. Again the tactic feels more to me like you are trying to get votes off of you then present a case against other players.

Also, you think for a moment that I'd allow this endgame to occur without posting gobs on each player? This:

As to the latter question, yeah I do. It seems odd to me that you would be at L-1, with one of the complaints by Fonzy in post #3018 being that you hadn't done any scumhunting this day. This obviously was weighing on your mind a bit, because you alluded to it in post #3025. The fact that I find your "case" to be pretty poorly executed makes me feel like you are trying to appease Yos/Fonz more than anything else.

Is the most insincere post I believe I've ever seen from you. And you can take that as flattering, because it means I've watched your play carefully over time and I know you know how players operate.

<snip>

You've neither addressed my concerns properly, nor actually done any scumhunting today, as far as I can make out. You're not the only one who can play the 'you ought to know better' card.

Fonz and Yos, I'm interested to hear your takes on my attempt at scumhunting. I see that you've both probably read the past few posts. Yet your votes remain on me...

<snip>

I think each of you should read Yogurt's post history for yourselves and decide. And I would like to be around for the discussion, so if one of you could please unvote me while we discuss this, I'd appreciate it.

Insincere? I don't think I'm taking you out of context here. In fact, I think the interpretation is pretty clear.

I don't worry about being uptight and thorough, fair and evenhanded at all times. I put info out there and I trust that from my tone and from my rounded desire to spot scum over time, you will figure out my alignment. Or if not, your reactions to the things I post will point YOUR alignment out to me and others.

Your play reminds me too much of our argument on Day 2 of Clue 1. That's one of the reasons I'm so distrustful of your intention. You tried to paint actions of mine on day 1 as scummy, taking my vote out of context and trying to nail me for hammering a mislynched townie, which I didn't do. At the time I thought your arguments were ludicrous, and I eventually convinced enough people to lynch you. You were SKscum, and I was a townie. I'm getting the same vibe from you now that I did then, although you seem more desperate here.

MBL, please respond to my defense of the points you made, namely:

1.) YB talked about me a lot in the posts you quoted because he had to in order to try and rebuff my attack.

2.) YB resorted to extreme forms of OMGUS when he failed to convince people to unvote him, saying that I was leading all of my scumbudies (who appeared to be 5 or 6 in number according to YB) to vote for him and calling me the GF; with OMGUS being a known tactic he resorted to when pushed.

Furthermore, I'd like you to answer why you failed to point out that in his defense, YB clearly delineated between myself and the others on his wagon when he appealed solely to MoS and Sarc for help avoiding his lynch.

So far you have avoided my answers to your accusations and commenting on their merit, instead trying to paint me as over-defensive and insincere. You haven't even commented on how I am being too defensive considering my play style and how thorough I usually am, which I asked you to do.

BTW, where is everyone else? I want to hear others comments what has transpired in the last 5 days.

Mod, are we getting a replacement for CTD? We need him or a replacement on the record in regards to day 5 events.

Update: I should get my new comp tomorrow, so I'll finally be able to post my analysis of MBL's play, probably broken down into day by day actions. Look for it before the weekend, if nothing else goes wrong. I don't have the time to assemble it here at work.

[BillyTwilight]

Brief update: I got my new comp at home late last week, so posting should speed up now. Unfortunately I was out of town this weekend, visiting family (with no internet connection... yeah, 48 hrs. almost killed me). I'll hopefully be contributing a lot more now.

---

On Thok's replacing into the game. I find your case against the Fonz to be interesting. It seems to me that upon replacing into this game, The Fonz would be the least likely of the players to initially attack. I've pretty much cleared The Fonz as scum in my own head. It's true that we haven't really analyzed his play that much, but it seems to me that as a replacement there are other more pressing matters to address than an "out of the blue" attack of Fonzy. Furthermore, Thok, I'd like to hear how you think TCS would have managed to pull off his gambit at the end of day 3 if he was the GF? This is my sticking point on Fonzy being town. I played a good bit with TCS last summer, and I think his play during that period is best characterized as slightly erratic. He claimed in one game as a cop with absolutely no pressure on him and no real reason simply because he was bored, and he pulled a very risky play as one of my scumpartners in Clue 2 involving rolenames. He seemed fond of gambits at the time (and maybe in general; I haven't played enough with him to know if that is his usual style or not). It is something that I could see him doing as scum; I just don't see how he could have thought that he would manage to pull it off. It seems much, much more likely that he was town trying to pull a savior-ruse to protect what might have been town's last power role in the game. If you intend to pursue your investigation of Fonz, I'd like you to at least give some explanation for how you'd think TCS could have made that play as the GF. Otherwise it's smoke and mirrors.

I also find it intriguing that you have mostly ignored MBL's precarious position in this game, at least until Fonzy asked you what you thought of it. It doesn't seem natural that a replacement would come into a game with a player sitting at L-1 and in a large argument with a third who could hammer him at any time and simply not feel inclined to mention it, especially considering your initial posts are an attack of Fonzy. If you really found Fonzy to be the most like GF, why not try to at least convince Yos2 to unvote or make a plea to me to not vote MBL any time soon? It just seems unintuitive to me that you would proceed to attack a player who is basically in the background as far as general group suspicions are concerned without at the same time at least addressing the pending lynch of MBL. I also find it strange that you have yet to substantially address any other player in the game, excluding your brief comments on MBL. Why can't you see Yos as scum? Why am I weird?


Yos, where are you? It scares me that you have basically dropped out of the game while MBL and I hack at each other, and Fonzy and Thok do the same. We need your input on everything that has gone down since you voted MBL.


MBL, I still want you to comment on the statements I made in post #3031. You've yet to opine on my rebuttal to your arguments, instead choosing to call into question the "sincerity" of my posts. That was basically your

modus operandi

for a lot of day 4, and doesn't hold well for your motives.

---

Okay, I'm finally finishing up my analysis of MBL's play, and will try and get it (or part of it) posted tonight. I think I am going to separate it into 5 posts; 1 for each day and a final wrap-up on my feelings about his play. I'll try to get as much of it up tonight as I can.

[BillyTwilight]

MBL analysis, with particular attention to voting/FoSing pattern and comments about known scum:

(Note: because I am tired of jumping between reading people in isolation and the full game most of the post #s below refer to displaying MBL's posts in isolation oldest first. The posts I quote I will include a "real" post #.)

Day 1

:

Votes Guardian in post #2. In post #4 he points out a scummy post by YB. Has an early target on Guardian, mentions him several times early in the game. Post #8, FoSes TCS for a fairly innocuous statement about townies claiming vanilla, then argues with Glork and Jack about the validity of his point for a few posts. Post #16 he points out some interplay between Guardian and YB; he comes down harder on Guardian than YB. Post #17 is interesting:

YB, you hopped on a wagon:

Vote:Battle Mage

Might as well join on the Wagon

Then you defended beanbagboy for joining a wagon:

Jack, He's following because you said, "let's wagon".

and then you attacked Albert for joining a wagon:

We are just at page 6, these are my initial impressions, that's all.

Your Inital Impressions are to join a Bandwagon??

And then you accused BM of being wishy-washy

Thank you for providing tonight's entertainment.

An interesting post that could be early coaching of a young scumpartner. Interesting in that it didn't carry an FoS, even though it points out some significant problems in YB's early play. First mention of BBB-scum. After a rebuttal from YB he has a joke at YB's expense in post #18. Post #19 is MBL's first mention of N9V, carrying a vote for N9V's post history. Interesting in that YB was the first to mention N9V lurking, followed by a vote from Jack and a vote from MBL. In post #20 he alludes again to a Guardian-YB connection. Post #23 he claims town vibes from Jack, scummy vibes from Guardian, conflicted on HJ, YB, Glork, BM, BBB, TCS, Albert. Has a bit of an argument over semantics with Glork for the next couple of posts. Post #28 unvotes N9V after N9V is replaced by MoS, stating, "Wow, awesome.

unvote

". I'm assuming this is banter; I don't know that even MBL would have the balls to express happiness (or perhaps disdain) at the player replacing in as one of his scumpartners. Post #30 votes Albert for not voting on Day 1. The events around his post #32 are strange. MoS replaced in and named MBL his top suspect followed by a vote. Interestingly he doesn't mention anything from MoS other than MoS's comment about him lurking; this comment from MoS doesn't make a lot of sense anyway, MBL wasn't lurking. Joins in on the early game argument about the merits of lurker hunting.

Post #36 gives his first player list and analysis.

Shteven: Scummy posts by sloppy town.
HungryJoe: Disinterested protown tone
TCS (Fonz): Lists a "major scumtell" against TCS for calling Guardian as the SK, either scum or town making huge mistakes.
Coron (IHSHB, CTD): no read
MoS: "for some reason i got a protown vibe off of: "Still feeling good about him, yay!" Went most sharply after the player who attacked his predecessor, something I'd expect from protown replacement. I liked most of his initial thoughts post except for the paragraph on me which is paranoid and obtuse. And he's sticking with it for whatever reason. "
HackerHuck: Needs to try harder if he's town.

So his analysis covers 6 out of 18 players. Next is a vote of Glork for a "Freudian slip", post #37. Defends this action in post #39. Post #40 returns to his early look at Guardian, asking why Guardian finds YB so townish; interesting because he hasn't shown any real suspicion of YB at this point. Defends his vote for Glork some more. Calls MoS "kneejerk" in post #43.

Post #46 continues his player analysis.

Haut Boy, Autumn Evenings: No real conclusion, but does ask AE a question about MoS.
BT: Not manipulative, wonders why my vote for YB didn't fall earlier. Otherewise no scumsigns.
Jack: doesn't comment on Jack's alignment. States Jack's votes on YB and Shteven aren't bad.
NikZero (Yos): "Nothing Yos has said bothers me, and I'm extra paranoid about him because I've never seen him as scum that I can recall." (Note, this is the first time in the game that MBL has a significant comment about the SK, saying the SK and town share an agenda).
Johhan: "Actively distancing/bussing scum".
BBB: "No firm conclusion, seemed like an alter playing intentionally bizarre. "

Has a bit of a joke at MoS's expense and refers to YB, followed by the strange question he asked in post #49, "

This question is directed to Yogurt and Albert only.

If you were scum right now, which of your three scumbuddies would you choose to throw under the bus, and why?" Bizarre question if MBL turns up GF. Suggests to MoS an interest in YB pointing at MoS's predecessor in post #50, referring back to post #48. YB refuses to answer MBL's question; not sure if he'd do that if they were scum together. MBL seems saddened by the lack of response from albert and YB. His response to my question about his question in post #56: "I hoped that the first one of those two that arrived at my question would be scum, and would accidentally answer the question by naming the most bussable of their scumpartners. I don't know if you've ever seen the tv show with that British guy who pseudo-hypnotizes people on hte street into giving him their watches and wallets, but I was hoping that if I asked with confidence, I might get scum in a frame of mind to answer my question. I expected town to confidently state "wtf". I expected scum that spotted the trick to respond uneasily." Doesn't seem very genuine. Strange play. It's after this that I start my attack on YB and the quick wagon on YB builds. In response MBL posts #58: "I know it's a bit much to ask for all twenty of you to hold off on the glorious hammer until I've had a chance to complete my analysis, but please consider my request. I'll get started right now on my final five. Thanks." First notable defense of YB... well, not defense

per se

, but definately asking to slow down the momentum of the wagon on YB. Post #60 finishes player analysis. This is the only one where he prefaces the analysis with what he expects to see from the players.

What I'm expecting to see before I read D1:
Yogurt: Goofball, gets indignant and OMGUSsy if he's town being accused.
Guardian: dunno
Albert: dunno
BM: Irrational but sincere
Glork: Irrational and manic, possibly indifferentish

Strangely, I find YB's play to be exactly as you expected if he's scum, not town.

Guardian: "Townish at first, but with a lot of SK tells". Another bit of infatuation with the SK, which increases quickly from this point on in MBL's Day 1 play.
Albert: Finds his play bad but never comments on if he finds him scummy or townish.
BM: Borderline townish
Glork: No real analysis or read on Glork. Asks Glork not to night kill him if Glork is scum.
YB:

Yogurt
Yeah, goofy but earnest. A few dumb things like mason speculation etc, but I get a nonmanipulative read. I saw a huge difference in Yogurt town and Yogurt scum in scumchat and this looks more like town.

Well, I dont think MBL is scum at all. I dont think there are any signs of it.

Someday this will get you in a lot of trouble, LOL. Not this game though.

Outright defense of YB. Would MBL really post that last sentence if they were scum together?

Post #61 continues his defense of YB: "Billy made a very well written and voluminous but not particularly persuasive argument against Yogurt. He essentially attacked Yogurt for being Yogurt, with a few nitpicky things thrown in." FoSes HungryJoe and Shteven, minor FoS of Jack, Huck, and MoS for being "hardheaded". This is also one of his first coachy posts, which we see a lot in this game. Basically he lays out a brief strategy for differentiating between scum and SK. In post #64 he specifically points out what he sees as "SK-tells" from Guardian. Most interesting because this is in response to MoS's post #960, where MoS states that "I really get the feeling that Guardian's bandwagon is becoming the common Day 1 lynch that happens in most games and doesn't result in dead scum". He is pointing MoS in the direction of a player he seems to feel has a high probability of being the SK. Again, a ballsy move if he and MoS are scum together, but is softened somewhat by the way he states his opinion: "What do you think of his SK-tells, Capn. Mosfaire?" MoS's response: "It's possible that he's scum, even SK, but I feel that people are getting lazy and taking the easy way out to vote him, when it's entirely possible that he's just being himself." Interesting conversation between the two about a likely SK.

Post #66, MBL gives a list of players he doesn't want to see lynched day 1:

inHim
MoS
Guardian
Glork
Autumn
Twilight
Jack
Yos
Sarc

Both Sarc and MoS are on the list, but YB isn't, which intrigues me because he's dismissed the case against YB previously. Very odd considering YB is the only scum that had a high chance of being lynched day 1. In my opinion it points to MBL not wanting to have on the record a direct statement of opposition to YB's lynch... he seems willing to defend him, but not to outright say that he doesn't want him lynched. His post #'s 67 and 68 are again SK-centric, the first time that he defends why he's not interested in lynching Guardian because he wants the SK to be around for a while to take potshots at mafia. If he really found Guardian to be the SK then perhaps he was trying to distance himself from mafia and trying to direct Guardian away from killing himself (MBL). Continues this in posts 71 and 72. Post #73 is more defense of YB: "Off the top of my head, YB is not playing unsubtly sneaky like he does as scum." Post #74 is in response to further prodding by MoS, which results in the

"Annoyed: MoS for pettiness"

statement. Post #76 he votes Albert, hopping onto a bad wagon that jumped up quickly at the end of day 1. His reasons are suspect at best: "My hesitation on Albert is that he posts a lot and on varied topics, shows a fair amount of curiosity, but I'm concluding that it's for appearances and not for scumhunting purposes as it doesn't actually move the game forward very often." That's pretty weak to be throwing your vote in on a wagon at the end of the day. Furthermore, the wagon was pretty bad to begin with; it looks like MBL wanted to give some reason besides the one that other players were throwing in for, and came up with a pretty weak one. He asks Albert to post his suspicions in case Albert turns up town as a legacy. Post #79 is the post that MBL used on day 2 to make it seem like he had singlehandedly pointed out MoS as scum, leading to MoS's death by SK during the night:

MOS, after you hammered the following people in your initial post:

Guardian

is hard to read, but

I don't think he's being very helpful.

I completely disagree that Glork is being overdevensive, and I don't see why he thinks YB is town. guardian agrees with MBL's bad case against TCS,

not looking good for him

. Keeps changing his position on BM,

not making a lot of sense here

. I think

Guardian changed his tune

about Glork's reaction to BM attacking Guardian early because of the pressure from Yos. Why did Guardian say there was nothing to comment on? There has been plenty to comment on...

Albert B. Rampage

= neutral, leaning protown, not the greatest play so far, though, WHOA. Why does he want a claim from someone he doesn't even think is worth lynching yet?

WTF is wrong with him, he's soooo scummy now.

Why is he defaulting to more experienced players? What if those experienced players he is relying on are scum?

Giving your own opinions are important, because you don't know who to trust...unless you are scum...

You haven't touched or analyzed their play

AT ALL

since. And you're dinking around on me. If I die and turn up town, you're going to get DESTROYED tomorrow. Get it together, man, or keep up the crap play if you're scum.

mFOS: MoS

It's interesting. MBL pretty well characterizes exactly how MoS's play was wrt himself: "dinking around". It's also interesting in that their interaction has been one of conversation without any real attack going on between the two of them (again, MBL had listed MoS as a player he did not want lynched). I am not sure how to interpret "mFOS". I would normally say that the lowercase "m" would mean minor. Certainly the complaint he has against MoS is minor. This could very easily be MBL doing some late distancing from MoS before the night phase. Particularly because of the follow up post, #81:

Two consecutive posts from Jack two weeks ago:

I really don't think guardian is the play.

That's because your scum with guardian and yb obviously

...

Jack has also played as if he's stuck with the false dilemma of choosing between Albert and YB over the past two weeks. No insight on any other player--Jack is either very lazy or is scum.

mFOS: Jack

The posts are way too similar. MBL, why only single out those two? Why single out two players on your "don't want to see lynched" list? It looks like you wanted to distance from MoS, but felt it was too obvious with just one post like that, so you emulated it with another. I just don't see why you specifically chose those two players only; both offenses seem minor, and both were players that you had on your no-lynch list previously. Both also turned up to be scum, so it could just be an excellent late day 1 read of those players. But I still argue that it doesn't fit the context of your play that day. It's even worse because you took Jack's posts out of context. Your excuse was that you were reading Jack in isolation, however, you misquoted him. More on that in a moment.

Post #82 is extremely SK-centric. In fact, MBL specifically advises the SK to take certain actions during the night and attempt to hit mafia, and he lays out a reason why the SK really should do that. Again, the implication is that he isn't mafia, and it tries to direct away from the SK hitting MBL.

Jack takes issue with MBL's mFoS of him, and several of MBL's next posts (83, 85, and 87) are defending that FoS. His complaint is that MBL's post misquoted him; MBL posted Jack's statement "That's because your scum with guardian and yb obviously" as a serious statement, when in fact Jack had ended that statement with a smiley emoticon. The point is Jack was making a joke and he never actually implied that he found Guardian scummy enough to be the "play" for day 1. MBL left out that emoticon to try and make it seem more like Jack was contradicting himself in order to place the mFoS. MBL's excuse for this is in post #87:

Jack, I'm doing last-minute rereads to see what additional info I can thwap down before night comes. I misinterpreted your interaction with Glork because I was isolating your posts, but I want to post things people are doing in this final push that are/aren't pro-town. For example, Albert having the energy to check the thread and post 20 times but not the dedication to provide the simplest of reasons behind his 5-6 suspicions is scummy.

He claims that he misinterpreted the post because he was reading in isolation. I checked Jack in isolation, and I think there is no way that MBL could have made that mistake. Look for yourself, it's post #'s 65 and 66 by Jack. Jack quoted Glork, and the emoticon is sitting their plain as day, MBL would have had to erase the emoticon when he was quoting or ignore it as he was retyping the phrase. And he could not have missed that it was banter with Glork; it's obvious. Furthermore, he tries to cut off Jack's pursuit of the argument by deflecting onto Albert. The rest of MBL's day 1 play is effectively piling onto Albert, with a little more coachspeak thrown in in post #89; again, it looks a lot like MBL is trying to excrete protowness before the night phase, after coaching the SK that he needs to go after scummy players.


Analysis: the end of the day looks pretty bad for MBL. If he is the GF then he carried out a lot of early day 1 banter with his scummates, which might be a point in his favor. However, his late day stance with MoS comes across as bad distancing, and his SK coaching looks to be trying to indirectly dissuade the SK from night killing him. His attack of Jack at the end is very weak and reminds me a bit of his late attack against me, where he left off the part of YB's post that contradicted his theory. He does the same with his mFoS post of Jack, leaving out the part of Jack's play that makes his FoS look silly. I've pointed out most of the interactions I saw with known scum, except for the aforementioned post where YB did a "random" pbpa of MBL. Not a lot of interaction between MBL and Sarc or his predecessors that I saw.

[BillyTwilight]

Day 2:

Starts with a bang for MBL. Post #92:

I am SO proud of the SK. Guardian, you should have known when MoS attacked me in his initial post and kept his vote on me for most of the day that he was scum. I am delicious spicy town, not unlike a chipotle remoulade, and probably wasn't nightkilled because scum knew I'd be protected after my stellar D1

In all modesty though, Albert as town was disappointing and humbling. Lots of people ignored MoS's bizarre behavior yesterday, and he treated a few people unevenly, including Guardian and Albert. Much to think about in light of these recent discoveries.

Immediately follows this up with more defense of YB in his post #93. His joy at MoS's kill seems like extreme over-distancing. He manages to distance himself from MoS and from a bad Albert wagon in one post, as well as to continue his campaign to dissuade the SK from killing him. He also over-emphasizes MoS's bad play from day 1. He makes it seem that MoS was obvscum when he came to no such conclusion at all on day 1. A couple of lighter remarks for a few posts, then in post #97 he questions Huck on if Huck finds MBL's D1/N1 and spat with MoS to be distancing. He is already harping on his record being what makes him unlikely scum, which is a little ridiculous because his "spat" with MoS wasn't conclusively not distancing, imo.

Post #98 distances himself from the scum-group and again admonishes the SK to not kill MBL the next night. Post #99 votes Glork, post #100 attacks AutumnEvenings in an OMGUSy fashion: "Bad vibe from Autumn--she doesn't think I'm teamscum, but repeatedly expresses willingness to lynch me on the offchance I'm an SK. Not really playing the odds there, and I sense a hint of scummy suspicion-entrenchment. Keep your eyes on her, gents." Post #101 is a response to AE, and contains his first defense against the SK argument via WIFOM, which he repeats for a lot of the remainder of the game.

Post #102 is in response to Glork. He defends his interaction with AE, gives a brief explanation for his vote on Glork, and states that he is "not thrilled with Shteven, YB, Guardian, inhim lynches based on what I last read." Post #103 defends his lurking. Post #104 follows, and is key in deciding if MBL is the GF or not:

Sarc doesn't sound like he's scumhunting.

InHim's posts read genuine. I'll be impressed if he's scum. I don't like the press on Guardian unless he's a cop, but then again, he's from the school of "lynch claimed docs".

I've gotten a lot of pro-town vibes from Shteven. His posts are also laden with the effort of frustrated/antagonistic town on the defensive.

If Glork isn't town, he won't survive to endgame the way he's played, so that's good. He'll either get crosskilled or lynched in the next day or two.

Guardian is off the table for me.

Spryte's posts have a hint of township to them.

TCS's posts are aggressive, but possibly in a way that indicates scum hunting SKs. Not my choice for today, but he deserves a reread and hairy eyeball tomorrow if he's still alive.

Huck: you're playing the way you criticized me for playing in Mormon2. Lurky-scummy. Plus, you slipped here:

YB was a pretty good lynch suspect yesterday and it seems like the fact that he was being bussed by MoS is keeping him off of the chopping block.

"fact"?

mFOS: Huck

Please replace Battle Mage.

If Twilight is scum he's quality scum and deserves to survive a few more days.

I have a reason for thinking Jack's town, but I don't like his suspicions.

Autumn's fishy, possibly just misguided. Her modest defense of Glork is good news because it means they're probably not part of a scumteam together.

Yogurt doesn't come across as particularly scummy to me.

unvote, vote: Sarcastro

This is MBL's "turn-the-tide" post, the one that he harped on for days as being the reason that Sarc was lynched. This is also MBL's last post of day 2.

MBL had 92 posts in day 1; he had 13 posts in day 2. Day 1 lasted 57 pages, from May 22 through July 10; day 2 lasted 21 pages, July 12 through August 22. MBL lurked hardcore comparatively during day 2. He had 4 posts on July 13, 1 post on July 27, 2 posts on August 2, 1 post on August 15, and his final 5 posts on August 19 and 20.

Analysis: The above chronicle of when he posted goes less towards accusing him of lurking (the height of summer is a slow time for the site in general, it seems) and more towards explaining his play. His early 4 posts on the day concentrated on MoS, semi-clearing YB, and trying to link Glork and MoS as well as distract away from Glork asking for a kill of MBL on Night 1. His July 27 post is a brief statement calling Shteven town. His August 2 posts are more distancing from the SK arguments and MoS. His August 15th post is an unexplained Glork vote. His August 19th-20 posts are as described above.

Whats important is the context of the game during the periods that MBL missed, particularly before his August 15th post. LML established the deadline on August 11. Shortly after this Glork had this post:

I'm starting to wonder if YB's "playing both sides of arguments" tendency is related to his playstyle in general, Jack.

I do not support an inHim lynch.

I think I could still support a Shteven lynch.

I'd like to see more pressure on both MBL and Sarcastro, and I'm sure there are lower-profile players who are lurking through this mess.

Notice the direct link between MBL and Sarc played here. Furthermore, a little later:

I think if inHim is scum caught with his pants down, he's probably the SK and he was trying to signal to the scums that he's going to target Guardian.

I agree completely with Guardian's post about YB being terrible town, which is why I've put him back down on my list. However, what I find strange is that in consecutive posts, Guardian says that "a YB lynch...would not disappoint [him]" and then says he thinks YB is just bad town. Mind explaining that one, Guardian?

Vote: Sarcastro
Mod(s): Prod MrBuddyLee

, please.

Mod Edit by PJ: MBL has been prodded.

This is the first vote on the Sarc wagon, and initiates what ends up being a successful lynch on day 2. Again, Glork directly mentions Sarc and MBL in the same breath. This is quickly followed up by votes from AE and Shteven for Sarc. MBL's vote for Glork follows this, in post #1878. This is after MBL has not posted for nearly 2 weeks and 6 pages of posts later. I don't know how well MBL had read or kept up with the game in this absence, or in the absence that preceded his August 2 posts. To believe that MBL is scum you must believe that MBL felt his vote for Glork was a mistake. Glork immediately asks MBL to elaborate on his vote; MBL doesn't get back to him. Glork reiterates his request for explanation of the Glorkvote, and the following conversation occurs.

So yes, I want the SK dead, and yes, I think there's a high chance you're the SK, so, by the transitive property (or whatever--it's been ages since I was in high school), I want you dead.

<3

I know this is some serious WIFOM, but would an SK really draw that much attention to himself specifically in relation to the existence and behavior of an SK?

1) Each night as Mafia chooses their kill, I have to be near the top of their list simply for the reasons you describe. SK is about survival, and they'd have to outlast a fistful of scum to do it.
2) Come endgame, if by some miraculous happenstance I'm still alive, and assuming I'm the SK, wouldn't I be significantly vulnerable for the same reasons you describe?

So yeah, WIFOM, but I don't think optimal SK play is to behave the way I have. I understand however that if you're mafia you'd be fine with having that niggling doubt resolved by killing off a townie who's presently confusing you about who to nightkill.

Unvote, Vote: MBL

MBL, several players have expressed willingness to lynch a player whom they believe is an SK. Why did you single out AE and not anybody else?

Because without rereading the game again, I presently understand attacks on me better than attacks on anyone else. I've played in a specific manner for a specific reason, and am able to learn quite a bit from the way people react to my posts. With any luck, the SK will also be able to spot mafia reacting to my posts and act accordingly.

EBWOP: Also, you never explained your GlorkVote when I asked you to elaborate. I'd like you to do so.

It's a pure vibe thing. You're playing somewhere in between your typical sloppy D1 town/scum play and your pro-town D3 play. A little too conscientious for my tastes, given your history Trust me, though, I WILL reread your post history today or tomorrow in time for a thorough eval before deadline. I'm not thrilled with Shteven, YB, Guardian, inhim lynches based on what I last read.

I d'no... some (such as AE) might allege that you have been in lurk mode because you need to survive. I remember, after I died in Committee Mafia, I was talking to you and you said that when you go into lurk-mode, people tend to not notice you, and you tend to stay alive. Logical extension: You're more likely to go into lurkmode when you have a greater need or desire to survive.

I was lurky town in Committee Mafia. I've just been busy.

So I'm your #1 suspect a few days before deadline? Fascinating.

That or I don't see my #1 suspect being lynched, so I'm applying pressure where I think pressure is deserved.


Y'know... either/or.

Three hours later MBL posts his post where he votes for Sarc. I think it's pretty clear that he knew Glork's "#1 suspect" was Sarc, based on Glork's post #1911 and where his vote was previously. Furthermore, how afraid was he that Glork had decided that both Sarc and MBL were scum. Did he feel that he hadn't explained his initial vote for Glork well enough, and that Glork might start putting together MBL/Sarc from this exchange. MBL has stated that he feels he can read Glork well; there is a distinct possibility that MBL felt that Glork might be putting together MBL and Sarc at this point in the game, and MBL felt compelled to vote Sarc.

As much as MBL has harped on his vote being the tide-turner for the Sarc lynch, his reason for voting Sarc actually looks pretty poor: "Sarc doesn't sound like he's scumhunting". In fact, he looks more suspicious of Huck based on his statements in that post, but he instead votes for Sarc. He doesn't post again for the rest of the day, and he never tries to convince anyone else to join the Sarc bandwagon.

Conclusion: I don't think that MBL can hide behind his Sarc vote as a pro-town tell anymore. In my opinion, the vote is not very well executed and he never tries to convince others to vote for Sarc, although the YB-Sarc wagon race was a close one going down to the deadline. Furthermore, given the context of the vote he could simply have chosen the Sarc vote as an attempt to get Glork off of his back and distract away from Glork making a Sarc/MBL connection. Compare and contrast the 2 deadline lynches of day 1 and 2. In both cases the opposing leading wagon was YB. MBL's approach to the to lynches are completely different. He actively pushed Albert's wagon. Many of his late day 1 posts were directed at Albert, calling him scummy, calling into question his defenses and the motivation for his play. The case can be made that he actively tried to get an Albert lynch over YBscum's lynch. Compare with the day 2 lynch. He never treats Sarc the same way he treated Albert. In fact, MBL's only mention of Sarc on all of day 2 is the post where he votes for him. Furthermore, Sarc and his predecessors had almost no interaction with MBL on day 1, and MBL had Sarc listed on his "not interested in lynching these players" on day 1. Given that he had almost no suspicion of Sarc before his vote, and that his vote was based solely on "Sarc doesn't sound like he's scumhunting", makes MBL's later claims that he was the turning point for the Sarc lynch seem almost laughable. He has stated that his active pursuit of Albert was unfortunate and a mistake, someone he was simply wrong on, but his extremely passive vote for Sarc was the sole reason that the wagon on Sarc turned and as a result a Sarc lynch was inevitable (see post #2996). In fact, much of MBL's current defense against him being the GF is based on the Sarc lynch and his interaction with MoS on day 1, which I also find to be more likely distancing than a real suspicion that MoS was scum.

MBL doesn't post at all on day 3. Day 4 and 5 are filled with MBL content, much of it defense against the accusation that he was the SK, and I don't have time to get to it all tonight. That analysis will come as soon as I can get to it.

[BillyTwilight]

Addendum to Day 2 post:

I just reread most of day 3, and realized that Glork had made almost no mention of Sarc before his vote that initiated the Sarc wagon. I missed that reading MBL mostly in isolation. Although my point still stands that MBL's Sarc vote could have been trying to distract Glork away from a possible MBL/Sarc connection, it's not as solid due to the fact that Glork's Sarc infatuation had only arisen right before he voted for Sarc. Also note that their play with regard to the Sarc wagon is eerily similar, in that neither one tried to convince other players to vote for Sarc from that point on in the day, despite the fact that the YB-Sarc wagon race was close all the way to deadline.

MBL didn't post at all on day 3, but I don't count that against him. Day 3 was the shortest day by far in the game, lasting only from August 26 - September 1, just 7 days and MBL was at Burning Man.

[BillyTwilight]

Obviously, it looks crappy that both MoS and Sarc were on this list, but whatever. I'll be surprised if you can find a game where I was willing to lynch a good player on D1. Day Two, I had a choice between pressing the Sarc or the YB wagon towards end-of-day, and according to this policy, I'd lynch Yogurt and save Sarc. I thought I had a pro-town read on Yogurt at the time, and was more willing to gas Sarc. I'm not sure there was an alternative at the time, I'll have to check.

I don't really understand what your getting at. I can buy your reasoning for the "no-lynch today" lists; it jives with some of your other statements in the game (there are places where you have said I think X has a high chance of being scum, but should be left in the game longer, implying that they might be an asset if you were wrong about them). The point I'm making wrt your Sarc play is that you have presented it as a 50/50 choice, if you were scum. Therefore why would you bus the better of the two partners, WIFOM aside? I don't think this is true if you are the GF; you would have had motivation to vote Sarc aside from just a toss-up between two of your goons, mainly fear that Glork had or would make a connection between the two of you (he already was, by the way; several of his statements on day 4 when he was attacking you linked you and Sarc).

It's amusing that so much of your theoretical case (and I'm sensing you don't really buy it) relies on me having to be a crappy player performing crappy, talentless distancing in order for it to be the truth. Is that really the way you feel about my play, Clue aside?

Right now, it's just an analysis. You'll note that I have also pointed out things that I thought would be unusual play if you turn up to be the GF. As for how do I find your play? You had several actions in day 4 and 5 that are really pretty poor play if you're town, a few things that are just plain bad; I'll get to those when I finish the analysis. On one side your trying to convince me that you are town because you wouldn't play so crappy as scum, on the other side if you are town then a some of your play on days 4 and 5 is pretty crappy. I think maybe boredom with this game got to you at some points (especially in day 2 and day 4) and you simply weren't involved enough in the game to exhibit optimal play.

[BillyTwilight]

1.) YB talked about me a lot in the posts you quoted because he had to in order to try and rebuff my attack.

Sure. But let's see how the decision to rebut came about, and examine the whole timeline of Yogurt+scumpartners.

2.) YB resorted to extreme forms of OMGUS when he failed to convince people to unvote him, saying that I was leading all of my scumbudies (who appeared to be 5 or 6 in number according to YB) to vote for him and calling me the GF; with OMGUS being a known tactic he resorted to when pushed.

Before I go back and review, my sense is that he paid some unusual attention to you. Was his behavior really OMGUS? Full timeline incoming:

Billy posted? Surprised

His first call-out of a "lurker", one week into the game. Weird? Especially considering you'd already posted four times?

You swiped at Yogurt June 11th. He totally ignored it for 5 days. You SLAMMED him with your monumental massive attack June 16th. Vote count at that point is:

YogurtBandit 3-- Plessiez(Sarc), Billy Twilight, Mastermind of Sin

(LOL, are all three scum on YB?)

Are you trying to make my point for me? In your initial case you stated in post #3024, "It's eerie how often YB talks about/to his scumpartners MoS and Sarc. And I'll have to confirm this, but anecdotally it appears he pays more attention to Billy than to anyone else." So initially you found me likely to be YB's GF based on him paying more attention to me than anyone else; now you find it likely because he ignored me until his known scum-partners forced him to answer my attack.

ok, so to your question, was Yogurt's reaction OMGUS?

Yogurt doesn't respond to you for four posts, instead posting:

Oh BTW, Happy Birthday to BillyTwilight! Smile

Then:

Also, Plessiez hasn't said anything, I dont mean to bring up the Lurker thing, but Just noting.

Note the offhand remarks about a scumpartner.

A week after Billy's massive attack, YB still hasn't replied to him.
It's 5-5 YB/Guardian.
Billy tests the waters, saying Guardian would also be a good lynch but he hasn't seen anything to make him move his vote off YB.

You think it's a scumtell that I could find more than 1 person scummy on day 1 of a 18 player game? Interesting.

Ten days later:

So, All of these pepole are scum?
(Glork, Albert, TCS, Guardian)
(MBL, Johhan)
(Yos)
(Yogurt)

(Altough I do agree about TCS) Pick our 5 scum inhim, outof these pepole, if you're so sure all of these pepole are scum.

Note: 4 confirmed town plus TCS, MBL, Yos. At LEAST 6/7 are town, if not all 7...

Also, it doesn't sound like Yogurt's talking to a scumpartner in inHim.

Are you trying to pull a headfake here? The list of sum posted here are inHim's not YB's. I read that you are implying that YB found all of these to be the likely scum, when that is not the case at all. He was asking inHim to clarify a statement from post #1007. You are implying that YB had all of these listed as his possible scum, which goes against YB OMGUSing me; this simply is just not the case. Otherwise, I want clarification on what you are even implying here?

Two WEEKS after Billy's attack, YB is still ignoring it and promises a pbpa on TCS.

umm, Is LML looking for a replacment for Plessiez? AE even said Plessiez cant play the game due to RL issues.

Yogurt shows interest in the game status of a scumpartner AGAIN lol.

Huck: "I took a peek at Billy's posts next, because he's been mentioned a fair amount and that wall of text on YB was a little over the top."

Voting YB is the way to go.

Actually, Sarc already is.

ANOTHER mini-discussion with/about not one but TWO scumpartners.

YB does a MASSIVE pbpa on Jack.

Wherefore art thou, OMGUS of Billy Twilight?

Again, YB had no defense of my attack on him, as evidenced by the fact that he tried to ignore it and foment wagons on other players. The OMGUS comes when he was forced to confront my attack.

Deadline is set for T-minus 10 days

Sarc bombs YB. "It's ridiculous YB's not lynched yet."

It seems most pepole are following him in voting me... Could All 4 Scum be on my wagon?

Sarc doesn't like that--cause we know that at LEAST 2/3 scum are!:

Ugh, it's stuff like that. First of all, that's not really a logical step: "People are voting me after BT made a good case, therefore all the scum are on my wagon". Second, I don't like that phrasing. You sound like you're just throwing it out there for other people to think about. If you really think your wagon is covered in scum, give an actual reason for why you think that. Don't try to steer better players into making ridiculous conclusions, because it won't work.

Yogurt:

Im not saying that, Im saying Everyone is following BT, Which could lead to them being scum.

weird... implying that followers of BT are scum? Because BT is scum?

Sarc replies AGAIN about the "scum on the wagon" issue. Damage control?:

vote count: YB 5--Billy Twilight, HungryJoe, Jack, Mastermind of Sin, Sarcastro

(Again, are all scum on Yogurt's wagon?)

MoS: "YB, have you ever actually tried to defend yourself against the accusations leveled against you by BT, myself, and others?"
Yogurt: "Okay then,I will respond to my accusations. "

note: NOT OMGUS! A scumpartner told him it's a good idea to rebut BT...

Long yogurt pbpa on Billy's attack.

Nice way to ignore that post again. Note to self: MBL doesn't consider a player calling you scum simply because you built a case against them and voted for them OMGUSing. From post #1090 by YB, "... You and your scumbuddies are latched onto me, so I dont think you're in any posistion to be accusing me of that. I think? Not sure again. Noted.... Im sure I'll find at least 1 person acting more scummy than me.( Look at Jack, and BT, barely posting, Lurking, Starting Bandwagons, Looking Pro-town)... Bt's Contstant, "Maybe Yes, Maybe No" Comments about me are odd, I definetly think he's signaling his buddies or He wants to point Fingers at me... I think I will look for connections between Billy and the pepole on this bandwago(n)... So Im unsure about Billy's intentions. I will say, He's made it very easy for pepole to vote me and get away with it. If thats what you wanted Billy, Good Job. Fos: BillyTwilight."

Not to mention that he clumsily tries to link myself and TCS, " Ithink I caught you. How would you know that TCS is definetly Mafia? Distancing? Perhaps Tcs isnt voting me so it isnt Omgussy and so you ahve one scum not on me? How are you sure that I am not the Sk? Im not saying I am, But I think you are sure im just a bad looking townie. Distancing TCS away from this all is noted."

Seriously, do you honestly think that this doesn't fit the very definition of OMGUS, MBL? Why leave his response out of your arguments completely? You don't mention that his entire rebuttal post is extremely weak; he couldn't think of anything concrete to defend himself, so instead he repeated calls or implies that myself and the others on his wagon are scum (he does the same with ALL on his wagon, including Jack and HungryJoe, who I'm pretty sure aren't the mafia godfather in this game). Wait, I take that back, he does say that MoS (his known buddy) is the player most likely to be town on the wagon.

Post #1090: Read this and tell me that it isn't OMGUS.

A few days later:

Will everyone voting me and everyone suspicous of me please read by defense of BT's pbpa?

REALLY wants people to see that he and Billy are at odds. Not he and anyone else. He and Billy.

Or really hopes that his defense was enough to get people to unvote or lower him on their likely scum list.

Billy: "I'm still happy with a YB lynch... his rebutal of my analysis does nothing to convince me he is pro-town."

YB: "Well, would you care to respond to my paragraph about how I think you are the scum leader/GF? "

Total non-sequitur here, and remember, YB NEVER posted about BT being his godfather. Is this more of the distancing from BT MoS was asking for?

Context, my boy. My post saying his rebuttal did nothing for me was right before he posted the line you are so caught up on, so it's a fair assumption that he was referring to his rebuttal post, particularly that long paragraph that I drew most of the quotes above from. I'm going to assume that you don't think that statements like, "You and your scumbuddies," and, "I definetly think he's signaling his buddies," are YB calling me the scumleader/GF. I'm also going to assume that you don't consider calling someone the GF in thread without backing it up with any evidence at all while that person is voting for you to be OMGUSing.

Huck was on fire. Read this post about how MoS can't keep his suspicions of me straight:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 342#658342

So you are admitting that MoS wasn't really straight with his "attack" of you? Doesn't really go to hold up your argument that you and MoS were at odds on Day 1 so you can't be scum with him, huh?

Yogurt accuses me of being buddies with Guardian:

Or Maybe hes your Buddy?

Huh. Do you think that MBL is scum, YB? Why or why not?

Well, Im not positive it is, I just think the last comment could be a MBL-Guardian pairing there. So I do, but to a certain extent and only because of the last post.

(Backs off his false accusation, Glork scared him.)

So that's about it. Yogurt was WEIRD about you and his scumpartners, there's no doubt about it. And the above doesn't even touch on his pbpa rebuttal to your pbpa, which you falsely claimed was OMGUS.

I'd love to hear you defend this statement.

Furthermore, I'd like you to answer why you failed to point out that in his defense, YB clearly delineated between myself and the others on his wagon when he appealed solely to MoS and Sarc for help avoiding his lynch.

This point's lame, unlike the others which are varying degrees of correct/incorrect. No matter who the godfather is, YB appealed to his scumpartners MoS and Sarc, and not his GF. Moot point.

So, you're changing your argument again. At first it was he talked about me more than anyone. The above point refuted that, because he clearly delineated between myself and the others on the wagon, and MoS and Sarc. Now your argument has changed to MoS and Sarc asking YB to distance from me, and so he did. But at the same time you point out that Sarc gets angry for YB doing exactly that distancing. You refuse to call YB calling me scum for no other reason than that I was leading the charge against him OMGUSing, but you don't bother defending that position.

Furthermore, your entire case is based on the assumption that I am scum. You have interpreted other players actions in light of that assumption, while not presenting any evidence that your assumption is correct. You've ignored completely the points I raised in favor of me being town, and instead chose to interpret the actions of the known scum based on the assumption that I am the GF.

MBL, I challenge you to show that the entire section of the game you are drawing from does

not

make sense if I am town.

---

Post #17 is interesting:

YB, you hopped on a wagon:

Vote:Battle Mage

Might as well join on the Wagon

Then you defended beanbagboy for joining a wagon:

Jack, He's following because you said, "let's wagon".

and then you attacked Albert for joining a wagon:

We are just at page 6, these are my initial impressions, that's all.

Your Inital Impressions are to join a Bandwagon??

And then you accused BM of being wishy-washy

Thank you for providing tonight's entertainment.

An interesting post that could be early coaching of a young scumpartner. Interesting in that it didn't carry an FoS, even though it points out some significant problems in YB's early play.

Please tell us how you distinguish coaching of a young scumpartner from a pro-town observation of scummy behavior. In your experience, are scum LESS likely to FOS their scumpartners?

How is laughing it off a pro-town observation of scummy behaviour? And, yeah, of course scum are LESS likely to FOS their scumpartners. There is no reason to unless they feel a need to distance from said partner. Furthermore, explain to me how it's normal for a town player to note scummy behavior and laugh at it instead of at least FoSing it, especially early in the game when there is less to go on?

Post #28 unvotes N9V after N9V is replaced by MoS, stating, "Wow, awesome.

unvote

". I'm assuming this is banter; I don't know that even MBL would have the balls to express happiness (or perhaps disdain) at the player replacing in as one of his scumpartners.

Yes, it's more of that delicious WIFOM I've never used before but have decided to whip out just for this summertime game.

You don't read much do you, MBL? The post right before this rebuttal: "Right now, it's just an analysis. You'll note that I have also pointed out things that I thought would be unusual play if you turn up to be the GF." I didn't completely ignore parts of your play that possibly point to you being town, as you've done with me.

I start my attack on YB and the quick wagon on YB builds.

Mischaracterization, I think. Wagon was 3 at your PBPA, grew to 5.

With others saying that the case against YB was good. Furthermore, do you accept the fact that YB was neck-and-neck to be lynched with Albert, and that if it weren't for my attack, he wouldn't have been?

In response MBL posts #58: "I know it's a bit much to ask for all twenty of you to hold off on the glorious hammer until I've had a chance to complete my analysis, but please consider my request. I'll get started right now on my final five. Thanks." First notable defense of YB... well, not defense

per se

, but definately asking to slow down the momentum of the wagon on YB.

Sure. I do this in all games--quick lynches are bad for town.

You weren't so worried about a quicklynch of Albert that sprung up three days before the deadline. In fact, you pushed it. Furthermore, your point is moot anyway; YB wasn't at L-1 or anywhere near it at the time. You WERE NOT trying to stop a quicklynch.

Well, I dont think MBL is scum at all. I dont think there are any signs of it.

Someday this will get you in a lot of trouble, LOL. Not this game though.

Outright defense of YB. Would MBL really post that last sentence if they were scum together?

Only if I'm the Godfather more commonly known as Wifommy McWifom.

See above.

Post #61 continues his defense of YB: "Billy made a very well written and voluminous but not particularly persuasive argument against Yogurt. He essentially attacked Yogurt for being Yogurt, with a few nitpicky things thrown in."

As Huck said, your attack was over the top. Almost as if you knew he was scum.

Defend this. Seriously. In context of how I have gone after every other player in the game. The "over-the-top-ness" that Huck found suspicious was simply his lack of ever playing with me. It's completely a playstyle thing, and it's very consistent throughout this game, with both players who have turned up scum and players who have turned up town. Show me how my attack of YB is far different than my attacks on other players at any other point in this game.

This could very easily be MBL doing some late distancing from MoS before the night phase. Particularly because of the follow up post, #81

Jack has also played as if he's stuck with the false dilemma of choosing between Albert and YB over the past two weeks. No insight on any other player--Jack is either very lazy or is scum.

mFOS: Jack

The posts are way too similar. MBL, why only single out those two? Why single out two players on your "don't want to see lynched" list?

Because I'm finding targets for the cop to investigate or for the SK to kill. Remember? I'm hunting mafia, and I'm not the SK.

Lame. You didn't mention Jack on day 2. You completely dropped your accusation of him. Interesting, in that you claimed credit for your attack on MoS, but you never readdressed the same kind of attack on Jack from the same period of the game again. You don't LOOK like your "hunting mafia". You look like you wanted to distance from MoS, didn't want to make it to obvious, so came up with a crap case against Jack that was easily refuted. You then ignored Jack the next day. It looks WAY more like your covering your bases with regards to distancing from MoS than you are scumhunting.

It looks like you wanted to distance from MoS, but felt it was too obvious with just one post like that, so you emulated it with another. I just don't see why you specifically chose those two players only; both offenses seem minor, and both were players that you had on your no-lynch list previously. Both also turned up to be scum, so it could just be an excellent late day 1 read of those players.

Well, obviously my read of Jack was dead-on. He exhibited stereotypical SK behavior and I called him on it. (And he didn't die that following night, so apparently the real mafia GF disagreed.)

HAHAHA. Your case was CRAP. It wasn't thought out and hastily thrown together. SHOW ME WHERE HE EXHIBITED STEREOTYPICALLY SK BEHAVIOR THAT YOU CALLED HIM ON. Nice to know that your brilliant read on his SK behavior day 1 slipped your mind on day 2 and you never considered it again.

MBL would have had to erase the emoticon when he was quoting or ignore it as he was retyping the phrase. And he could not have missed that it was banter with Glork; it's obvious.

Wait, are you really hitting me for leaving out a smiley-face when I quoted one of the SK's posts? LOL

Analysis: the end of the day looks pretty bad for MBL.

his late day stance with MoS comes across as bad distancing

His attack of Jack at the end is very weak and reminds me a bit of his late attack against me, where he left off the part of YB's post that contradicted his theory.

Hmm, nice attempt at refuting my massive Yogurt+Billy attack with this weak crap. My attack on Jack was dead on, actually, and by extension, are you implying that my attack on you is also dead-on? Also, if the end of day "looks bad for MBL", why didn't you attack me the next day?

The fact that Jack was the SK has no bearing on your case being dead-on. It was pathetic and half-hearted (much like your case against me). The whole point of the Jack-case was to show that you weren't really trying to find scum, you were covering the distancing attempt against MoS to make it look less obvious. Nice to know that when you're "dead-on" about scum they only have to get through to the next day and you will forget that you were even going after them.

---

MoS came into the game with a vote of MBL and a FoS of YB. Stuck with this until YB continued to answer questions directed to other players, whereupon he switched his vote to YB. He made a defense of Guardian and Shteven, and continued an attack on MBL for the majority of his time in the game.

I don't see MBL being scum here

, but I can still see YB being scum.

As of right now I really think MBL is town. I don't buy him being scum at all.

the end of the day (D1) looks pretty bad for MBL.

his late day stance with MoS comes across as bad distancing

Fascinating. How a mind changes.

Also, I just realized that in a game with an open setup and an SK, scum will be careful about casting too much suspicion on their *good* scumpartners, lest they get offed by the SK. I don't have time to review this fully, but I believe I cast suspicion on MoS and Sarc while Billy cast suspicion on neither.

So you don't think a player can change his mind after 28 pages and over 700 posts of new material, or that the fact of looking at 4 other players (one of whom I consider nearly confirmed) vs. 9 other players (one of whom I considered nearly confirmed) can have an effect on who I find to be likely scum in the game? At the time of the above statements I

didn't

find you to be likely scum, and others I found to be scummier, so I didn't spend hours analyzing your play as I have now. Furthermore, your play after the posts you mentioned went downhill fast. Reevaluating early game information in light of late game play is the only way to find scum. I could dig up posts from the same part of the game where you found me to be not likely group scum; would you think it just for me to point those out and give pithy remarks like "How a mind changes".

I've already shown to my satisfaction how your play with respect to MoS can be simple distancing, and you never cast suspicion on (or really mentioned, other than having him in your no list lynch) Sarc till you voted for him. So no, your last point doesn't hold either.

---

BillyTwilight, name two people you think are likely to be town, with reasons.

Odd question.

1.) The Fonz: Unless someone can explain to me how TCS could have gotten away with his late day 4 play, I consider Fonzy to be mostly confirmed.

2.) Yos2: Truthfully, mostly because I find Thok and MBL to much better fit the possible GF role than Yos. I also felt that his desire to lynch RB was genuine, not simple bussing. I should do an analysis of his play with respect to the known scum at some point, but I have to finish MBL's first. As of right now I consider him to be more likely town than the two of you. As a caveat to this I find his unvote for MBL to be strange, considering what you posted as reasons for not voting MBL are nearly identical to MBL's own defense; they weren't good enough for Yos when MBL made them, so why the unvote.

Actually, Yos, I'd like you to answer that one.

I'll try to finish the analysis of MBL tonight.

[BillyTwilight]

Odd question.

Yosarian2's comment about how he thought I was protown because I was trying to clear multiple people on replacing in made me notice (at leat in my opinion) that you were willing to keep at least a token amount of pressure on everybody today. I wanted to see what happened if I forced you to switch up your point of view and spend some time defending people rather than attacking them.

I'm one of the few (if not the only) player in the game to spend a lot of time "confirming" players as town. I was the first to really make the argument that TCS was probably town due to his actions on day 4 and I cleared Kinetic as townie when I could have let him stew in his own juices if I chose to. Furthermore, I've only kept any pressure on MBL and CTD today, so I think it's a mischaracterization to state that I've tried to keep a token amount of pressure on everyone today.

[BillyTwilight]

Edit: I should note that CTD also said he thought TCS's "gambit" made him feel "somewhat better about you", but he never really made an argument for TCS being town because of it.

[BillyTwilight]

Also, Billy, could you explain in a little more detail why you are so sure Fonz is innocent? Your explination confused me a bit.

Around midday day 4 there was no consensus on a lynch and TCS asked that whoever we decided to lynch he be allowed to hammer them (see post #2614). Note that this was before the imposing of the deadline that day (post #2634). There was a lot of suspicion thrown TCS' way because of his claimed desire to hammer, and he weathered it rather well. We deadline lynched Shteven without TCS being able to hammer, so he wasn't able to state his reasons for his desire to hammer on that day.

His first post day 5 is:

I was away and didn't get to hammer/claim.

I am a vanilla townie. I intended to falseclaim doctor when I hammered to try to draw the nightkill away from Glork.

We are soundly fucked. I think it's time to go for Billy or White.

The point I am making is that I don't see how TCS could have thought he would get away with this as the GF (or the SK for that matter, which we now know he wasn't). At any point before the deadline we could have decided the lynch to make and forced TCS to hammer and explain his actions. I can't think of any way that he could have explained his actions without being lynchbait for the rest of the game, therefore I believe he was telling the truth and that he did intend to do what he claimed he was going to do in post #2774. In fact, I defended him on day 4 even before he explained what his plan was (see post #2636) because I couldn't imagine what kind of stunt he would pull that would allow him to "confirm" himself without getting himself lynched. He basically gave us the choice to out him if he is scum. We didn't use the opportunity, but the fact that he was basically putting his life in our hands points way away from him being scum, imo. Furthermore, it feels a lot like the kind of gambit and not really sound play that I would expect from TCS from my meta on him in the Clue games.


I didn't get a chance to get at the computer for an extended period last night. Sorry about the delay on the rest of MBL's analysis, but I will try to have something before the weekend is over.

Yos, I'd still like your answer on why you pulled your unvote for MBL based on what Thok said, considering it was essentially the same defense that MBL had given all day.

[BillyTwilight]

ManaSpryte- 3 (Guardian, AutumnEvenings, YB)
Shteven- 4 (Glork, Jack, Sarcastro, BillyTwilight)
Yogurt Bandit- 4 (HackerHuck, The Central Scrutinizer, ManaSpryte, inhim)

Before this, it was Shteven 5, YB 2. inHim joined a flip wagon on manaspryte to get him talking, and then followed TCS and Manaspryte onto YB's wagon. inHim showed no interest in pressing a Shteven wagon, because he didn't have a scum read on Shteven. (Or because his scumpartner was already on Shteven, but he didnt have any hesitation joining YB on Manaspryte.)

Glork called inHim out on this, and inHim gave a careless defense. Tough read, could be careless scum caught with their pants down but I don't think so.

I believe Twilight placed vote #5 on YB. It's a chirpy post about sunshine and rainbows and enthusiams that the world's finally seen the light about YB:

I am very surprised that there are so many votes on YB. I thought at some point we made a decision not to lynch him... Oh well, sometimes the rain quits falling, clouds open up, sweet manna from heaven coats the ground, the angels break out in glorious song, and players in Mafia 64 actually vote for YB. Yay!

Unvote, Vote: YogurtBandit

.

when actually the wagon forming on YB is very shaky and impulsive, and not supported by inHim's or Manaspryte's previous posts. Billy just plain wanted to be seen on that wagon. The previous three votes on YB:

unvote, vote: YogurtBandit

'kay, lets do this.

Hadn't expressed suspicion of YB before.

Amen brother

Unvote, Vote YB

Hadn't expressed suspicion of YB before.

Well, now that you put it that way...

unvote
vote: YogurtBandit

Called YB townish a few days previous, and consistently thru the game as well.

Billy was absent for ten days before this vote and for 17 days after, but it's very clear that he wanted to be early on this wagon, and it was important enough that he made his only significant post in a month a vote on the supershaky YB wagon that didn't bother to look at the motivations of the others on the wagon.

Hop on the bus, Gus.

Wow, you

really

want to make the argument that I haphazardly jumped on the YB wagon? Aside from the fact that I spent the majority of day 1 trying to get YB lynched, even when a suitable mislynch was ripe for the taking, there is the vote for YB that you ignored from day 2. My first post was a vote for YB, July 13th. I unvoted YB and moved to Shteven on July 30th. Between those actions almost NO ONE even mentioned YB, with the exception of a throw-out vote by Huck, regardless of the fact that he (YB) was this --> <-- close to lynched on day 1. Your calling the wagon on YB "supershaky" as though there was

no evidence

from day 1 to be voting YB. Did you expect me to reiterate all of my problems with his play from day 1? I consistently wanted YB lynched through day 1 and 2, going as far as trying to convince other people to stay on his wagon.

You think I should not vote someone I have found significantly scummy for a large part of the game simply because the others voting for him aren't giving a lot of reasons for it?

Please stop ignoring my request from post #3071. Just to refresh:

"MBL, I challenge you to show that the entire section of the game you are drawing from does

not

make sense if I am town."

[BillyTwilight]

Day 4:

EXTREMELY

prolific day for MBL, with 121 posts. By far his largest output of the game in terms of # of posts as well as length of posts.

Post #105 is MBL's first of the day. Note that almost as soon as the day began Glork voted MBL and started to build a case against him; Jack quickly followed Glork with a vote for MBL. Glork had claimed cop by this point, and MBL's first post is to try and discredit Glork's claim a little: "Not sure the Glork claim was necessary--which makes me wonder if it's a calculated gamble by scum. I was leaning towards answering LML's question "nope, no cop in this game" so I don't see why Glork was so sure he was dying soon. Worst case scenario there's another cop and Glork has to tapdance a little. And why did the Paragon investigate three innocent players as cop? You'd figure he's a better scumhunter than that... " He continues by calling the votes on him terrible and asks to go back and look at his relationship with the deceased as a means to clear him. He also attacks the players who voted Guardian for "rushing" a lynch. For the first time he expresses an actual desire to lynch the SK, who he has defended as being semi-town aligned up to this point in the game.

MBL is attacked by multiple players for this initial post, and he responds with the overreacting post #106: "Fine, lynch me impulsively and hand the various flavors of scum the game. Hurry!... I just got back from 12 days in the desert. I'm not going to make perfect sense right off the bat after skimming what's happened. Give me some time here to read the game and see which manipulative bastard didn't REALLY believe Guardian or Huck were scum. I also want to reread people's arguments in favor of voting me to see which have even the slightest ounce of merit. I've played a VERY protown game thus far, and you guys are borderline retarded for finding me scummy. If you have the time, please clarify your cases so I can see which of them ooze pus. Thanks."

Much of the rest of day 4 is MBL defending himself against accusations; I'd note that his play implies OMGUSing quite a bit - Yos in post #107, TCS in post #109, and Kinetic in post #112, as well as multiple times with Glork and Jack, although more veiled with the latter two.

Many of his posts, especially early in the day, are defenses against being the SK, and this doesn't bear a lot of meaning for the current discussion; however, 1 point of his defense for not being the SK is indicative of MBL being mafia. As an example see:

...You can respond, "sure MBL, that's great WIFOM" but seriously, an SK can't afford to attract that kind of suspicion AT ALL or they will DIE at the hands of scum or a lynch. So yeah, sure, you can try to convince yourself that I'm the highest profile SK ever in a 25 person game, and I can try to convince you that's WAY too much risk for any sane SK to try and endure. They have to survive about 12-13 killshots, and I'll tell you, putting their head on the block like I have is NOT the way to survive 12-13 killshots. You say that my posts talking about an SK feel like distancing. Thank you for accusing me of being the sloppiest SK self-distancer ever, I appreciate the compliment.

He mentions this type of defense multiple times day 4. The point is that he would have had to survive multiple night kills as SK from scum in this game, yet scum apparently never took a shot at him. He also contends that he was the turning point for Sarc's wagon; so, given that he was a legitimate SK candidate who would have been a "turning point" on the scum wagon, why did scum not take a shot at him?

Included in his defense of being the SK are various attempts at clearing himself of being mafia. This comes down to the exact defense he has been using all game long; see post #'s 109, 110, 116, 124, 128, 129, 142, and 143. As an interesting side-note, Glork proposed a meta on MBL where MBL likes to appear to be a tide-turning vote on one of his scumpartners (Sarc). MBL went crazy over this and a huge debate on the ability of Glork to meta MBL ensued. Almost all of MBL's defense against being mafia was based on his interaction with MoS day 1 and his vote for Sarc day 2, which is weakened further (since he originally presented it on day 4) now that we know the other leading wagon day 2 was also scum. A part of MBL's defense about the Sarc play emphasizes the fact that YB was town, see post #110: "Sarc and YB were neck and neck when I did a reread and decided to vote Sarc yesterday. Are any of you of the opinion that that was a bus? Keep in mind that if YB had died instead (and not as scum), there would be 3 scum alive right now out of 10 players remaining."

Other points of notice; he spent effort trying to clear YB, post #'s 149, especially 163, and various other posts with throwaway comments like "I've found YB to be townish" or the like.

Also of note is that he spent more time than anyone casting suspicion on Glork's cop claim, see post #'s 105, 112, 114, 130, 139, 146, 152, 153, 154, 160, 161, 162, 172, 175, and 181. To be fair, MBL also had several posts where he stated that he mostly believed Glork's cop claim, but he spent more time than anyone else in the game interjecting the possibility of Glork=SK, when nearly everyone else was willing to call Glork 90+% confirmed. This probably has a lot to do with his defense against Glork; the more he could discredit Glork's attack as coming from the SK, the less effect said attack would have. It's most interesting because he constantly talked about how Glork could have been the SK, but in post #196 he had Glork as least likely to be the SK.

Leads to the next point; MBL's list of scum is all over the map. Post #143:

Order of suspicions:
scummiest

Kinetic
Twilight
TCS
Jack
Glork
Yos2
inHim(AlyG)
YB(Mole)
Shteven

least

The fact that he had Glork halfway up his list is amazing. Could he

really

think after Glork's claim that he was more likely scum than Yos, inHim, YB, and Shteven? If it weren't for the fact that Glork was trying to get him lynched there is NO WAY that he could have Glork that high. Also note that he had Kinetic highest on his list, followed by myself - strange because I was voting Kinetic at the time and he had followed my vote and analysis in post #2255. He followed with:

Bingo bango bongo.

*** note to metagamers: impending scum attempt to appear involved in a lynch of scumpartner ***

vote: Kinetic

Interesting because as far as I can tell he had not mentioned me at all (as far as being possible scum) on day 4 till he made his list, so I can only assume that his only reason for having me that high was because I didn't attack MoS or Sarc. Strange that he would follow my voting for Kinetic and at the same time find me one of the most likely scum in the game. His unvote for Kinetic falls in post #156, after I cleared Kinetic as probably town. Strange because he mentioned in post #129 that he was getting mild town tones from Kinetic, and in post #149 he gives reasons for clearing both Kinetic and YB based on early game interactions with BBB, but he doesn't unvote till I cleared Kinetic later. Note his response to the post where I cleared Kinetic: "Billy, I noticed a few of the things you mentioned about Kinetic's notes. I also noticed a protownish tone in between the awkwardness. I also hand it to you--if you're mafia you just pulled an outstanding head fake. I'm more inclined to think you're SK at this point."

He has a couple of enlightening posts with regard to Jack: #156: "That leaves two players I thought gave off townish vibes D1 and possibly D2: Jack and YB.", #158: "That leaves YB, Jack. I've found YB townish all game and Jack varying from townish to recently scummy.", and a longer analysis of Jack's day 1 play in 164. NOTE: HE NEVER MENTIONS HIS mFOS OF JACK ON DAY 1. He maintains that he found Jack townish day 1 and scummy later in the game. It's more evidence that his attack of Jack at the end of day 1 was insincere and rushed, and something he never felt strong convictions about, enough so that he forgot about it by day 4. This goes more to the mindset that MBL wasn't interested in scumhunting at the end of day 1 when he FoSed MoS and Jack, and more interested in covering his tracks with regards to distancing from MoS.

After he unvoted Kinetic he voted TCS, strange because out of 9 other players, TCS was one of the 3 investigated innocents alive. MBL then does massive analysis of every player in the game with respect to their being the SK; his final list looks like (post #196):

SK:

Jack(White)-most likely
TCS
Shteven
Yogurt(Rogueben)
BM(Kinetic)
inHim(CTD)
Yos
Twilight
Glork - least likely

This is completely at odds with his previous list. He'd argued that Glork looked like he could be the SK and had Glork halfway up his scumlist, but by this point he has Glork at the bottom of his SK-list. To be sure, a good bit of time passed in the game (206 posts and 15 days, RL). However, he had made posts as little as 4 days and 59 posts before he posted his lists still insinuating that Glork could be the SK. The position of Glork on the list doesn't jive with me. Neither does my position; he had stated before that he found me a possible SK. Also doesn't jive with his play in early day 5, which I'll get to later.

Now to focus on his interaction with RB. By this point YB had pretty much fallen off the planet, and RB entered the game in post #2458:

WOW!! That's all I can say guys. I have spent almost all my free time over the last week reading through this monster of a game. It is quite late now so I will post a more detailed post tomorrow.

In no particular order.

MBL - I'm not sure about you. I agree that there is quite a lot of pro-town tells when isolated, but after my read through I have suspicions of you being the SK. The first thing to tip me off was definitely the "I'm SO proud of the SK". The other cases laid out by Glork and others also have some relevant points (I don't like the meta-game analysis though).

Glork - I agree with MBL. You need to be a little less pigheaded. Instead of popping back in and saying MBL is the SK I think that you should definitely continue arguments on other scummy players, eg Shteven who you were convinced about for 3 days but you've gone quite now.

TCS - Your play has been quite random and hard to analyse. Sometimes you are lurky and then at other times you come out with arguments (though a lot of the time with little reasoning). I think that you seem pro-town though. Perhaps some more concrete arguments would be helpful.

Yosarian - Again some small scumtells but I think generally pretty pro-town. I think that some of the day 2 arguments were a bit off-topic and distracting but since the start of day 3 that has stopped.

Billy Twilight - Although you've spent much of the game attacking my predecessor (even though your suspicions seem to have been relieved, at least partially) I find that you are very quite pro-town. Most of the arguments that you make are well thought out and logical. Sometimes I think that your lurk and then post wall of text style of play is a little frustrating though.

CTD - I'm going to wait to hear more from you. Coron didn't post much and AlyG didn't post anything as far as I recall (maybe a hi everyone post). inHim struck as slightly erratic as well but generally a pro-town tone.

Kinetic - I'm not so convinced about you. BM played strange (as BM often does) but I agree there was a town vibe from him. However you have seen a little opportunistic and also a bit erratic. I think that the argument that BT made about your notes was pretty spot on though. So in short jury is still out on you.

Jack - I don't like the way you come in and post 1 or 2 lines and then disappear again. Your votes often have little reason sited behind them as well. Despite this I agree with most people that you seem pro-town, I would just like to see a little more content in some of your posts, once your done with the exam.

Shteven - I don't like a lot of your arguments, I found them hard to follow and also some flawed logic (and sometimes flawed math). I think that it is quite possible that you are scum, though not definite (and could not see Glork's definite scum-tells on day 1/2).

Anyway guys those are my initial impressions. I am going to go to sleep now as I have spent 9-10 hours reading this thread since Saturday.

Not sure that RB would jump right in and go after MBL as the SK if they are scum together. Note however that by this time the attack against MBL had cooled, with only Glork and Kinetic still voting him. MBL is first to respond:

Thanks for the effort, Rogueben, this game needs the infusion of energy you bring.

I am concerned by the fact that you find pretty much everyone pro-town, but then again I've been telling myself that at LEAST one scum is doing a bang-up job of looking pro-town this game. When you have a chance for a second read or for your thoughts to settle, can you please make an ordered list of suspicions? Two lists, if you think giving separate mafia and SK lists would be productive.

Yos, every time I see you post in another game thread and skip over this one, I get the willies. Do you really have nothing to say or are you waiting to see how the tide shifts? There have been several posts by you where you've gauged public opinion, so to speak, and I'd be more likely to see you as town if you didn't seem to be trying to game the situation to some extent.

A list of my suspicions would be:

Mafia:
Shteven
Kinetic
TCS
CTD
Jack
Yosarian
Billy
MBL
Glork

SK:
MBL
TCS
CTD
Jack
Shteven
Billy
Yosarian
Kinetic
Glork

I thoroughly believe Glork to be Pro-town, I still believe that he should make some more arguments against others today (he has done this in the past).
I hope this answers your questions MBL. These lists do have reasons behind them which I will post later today.

So RB has MBL at the top of his SK list, however, he never votes for him on day 4. He FoSes TCS and Yos in post #2474 and he votes TCS in post #2635. He has very very few posts in the interim (one of which he spends defending TCS). We know that RB was scum, therefore he had a large interest in lynching the SK. If he truly found MBL to be a likely SK, why no vote for MBL? Especially considering Glork and Kinetic are both town, his vote plus the potential vote from his scumpartner would have put MBL at L-2, with the prospect of a deadline lynch looming or the votes of other players who had been suspicious MBL=SK that day. Furthermore, he goes to counteract his suspicion of MBL by telling Glork, "I agree with MBL. You need to be a little less pigheaded. Instead of popping back in and saying MBL is the SK I think that you should definitely continue arguments on other scummy players, eg Shteven who you were convinced about for 3 days but you've gone quite now." So he is scum with a need to lynch the SK; he finds MBL to be the most likely SK, but he doesn't do anything to try and get MBL lynched, and furthermore tries to distract Glork away from continuing his crusade against the player he felt most likely to be the player he needed to lynch the most in the game? IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE IF MBL IS TOWN. It makes a lot more sense that RB wanted to distance from his partner as a noob (his join date was less than a month previous to his entrance into the game) and "attacked" him for the same reasons others had been doing in the game, but then actively tried to dissuade his partner's chief accuser from continuing his attack. The only other explanation is that RB didn't think MBL was the SK but decided to put him at the top of his SK list anyway, which doesn't make sense.

MBL pretty much ignores RB's listing him as the probable SK; he does however attack Yos for being too passive (post #2466). When Yos states that he has found MBL to be a likely SK (an open statement basically inviting RB to vote MBL here; RB would have had some reason to believe that Yos might have followed him), MBL indirectly implicates himself as mafia in post #175: "Have you made that case before today? Why not? And obviously scum disagree with you or else they'd have taken a shot at me by now. (Did they think Glork was SK or cop when they shot at him?) In fact, scum would probably rather lynch the SK than me right now, which is one reason why my wagon's not rocketing into the stratosphere." Makes my point from above for me. If RB really found MBL to be the SK, why not vote him?

MBL's play for day 4 wraps up with a vote of White and an FoS of Kinetic, TCS, and Yos in post #2655. So he was still suspicious of Kinetic after he claimed townie vibes from him and after my large clearing post of Kinetic. Interesting that the other two were for investigated innocents and his vote ended up on the player he found most likely to be the SK from his SK analysis. It stays their the rest of the day, but MBL regrets it by post #224. Before this White refused to OMGUS Shteven (see post #2754) which would have put Shteven in the definite lead for the deadline lynch (they both had the same number of votes on them, with Shteven having reached it first). MBL buys that this makes White more likely to be town, and he scrambles for the rest of the day. He doesn't want to unvote White because that would effectively hammer Shteven, but he spends the next few posts throwing out all kinds of possibilities. See post #224, 225, and 226. Could be genuine confusion about what is happening in the game. Could also be MBL realizing that the SK wasn't going to be lynched, and knowing he spent a good bit of the day pinpointing the SK wanting to make it look as much as possible like he is just a confused townie and the best nightkill to find scum would be elsewhere.

Analysis: Day 4 from MBL is long and confusing. There is much hysteria and defense against the first real attack launched against him in the day. I've only really skimmed the surface of his play during the day; everyone will have to reread it to get a better feel. I do think there are some townie points in there; his scrambling at the end seems to be genuine, his defense against being the SK is also genuine (obviously) but has a townie feel to it. However, he REALLY seems to spend a lot of the day looking for the SK. He also seems to focus quite a lot on Yos and TCS, two confirmed innocents which in my opinion point to him doing more SK hunting. I can understand this in the early part of the day when he was under intense pressure for being the SK, but later in the day most of that pressure has dissipated and he still seems to be much more focused on a possible SK than he should be. RB's play makes no sense if he really found MBL to be the SK, and MBL posted several times defending YB/RB. He was the player most interested in keeping the Glork=SK theory alive for most of the day, although Shteven did that some as well at the end of the day. Several times he found other players to be exhibiting town traits, but he never really cleared anyone as town until his panic over White at the end of the day.

I'll finish the analysis of his day 5 play and an overview tomorrow, if I can.

[BillyTwilight]

Though can you see any reason why a

town

MBL would possibly act like that?

Well, he shouldn't. I was so frustrated when I came back and saw the game had gone to night without a lynch.

That being said, the key thing is that while I can see why MBLscum might want a no-lynch, I can't see why he would choose to not lynch Stheven but then kill him afterwards; it seems like lynching him and then killing someone else would be strictly better for a scumMBL there, wouldn't it?

I was saving this for my day 5 MBL analysis, but since the conversation is going on now, I figured I'd throw this in.

Nah. The Simenon (I'm assuming the Shteven reverence was a typo) kill makes perfect sense if he thought you were the SK, Yos. As of yesterday I had narrowed down the SK to be you or Simenon; if he thought you were the SK he would have assumed that you would probably have night killed RB, meaning that a NK of Simenon would have narrowed down my SK-suspicion to just one person: you. That would have been two out of three votes needed to lynch you, and between myself and MBL arguing for Yos=SK he would have had a reasonable chance of getting you lynched, only needing to convince CTD or Fonzy to vote as well, and he would have depended on me to do a lot of that legwork. He would also have had the same distancing tactic from being the GF as he has used today - if MBL=GF why not lynch Simenon instead of leaving him alive and then killing him. Should be noted that Simenon was trying this exact same tactic with RB. Why kill RB in the night if he could have moved his vote at any time and lynched RB? The point is it's much easier for the GF to lynch the SK and then get one mislynch to win the game, as opposed to having to wrangle two town mislynches to win. Is it a gamble? Yeah, but one that has a very high benefit to risk ratio and certainly less difficult to pull off than getting two successive mislynches on town for suspicion of being the GF.

Seen in this light his last post of the day makes perfect sense. If he thought you were the SK, Yos, then it was simply a last ditch effort to get RB to swing his vote onto you, hoping that RB would look at the thread before deadline. It's obvious that MBL had no intention of actually moving his vote, so why post that unless you are trying to get someone else to move theirs?

The one risk he absolutely could not take is that he was wrong about Simenon and if he had moved his vote and lynched the SK his game would have been extremely difficult from then on, close to unwinnable. Yes, it would have been LyLO, but there is no way town wouldn't have gone goon hunting with 5 players left, three of whom remained uninvestigated (he couldn't NK me, that would leave the uninvestigated pool as 100% scum). He'd have a really hard time convincing town to lynch me, because he'd have to make the case that I was the goon. With at least two people in the game more than willing to lynch RB (he'd effectively HAVE to kill one of Yos or Fonz), he'd have a very hard time getting a mislynch. He'd either have to continue defending RB or bus him, which would have gone against his previous play, making avoiding a lynch on the final day nearly impossible.

He also couldn't vote RB; moving his vote at that late of a juncture after arguing YB/RB=town for most of the game would have been too obvbussing. It would have increased his chances of being lynched, and

really

increased his chances of being targeted by the SK, who would have had no reason to not take the chance that MBL was bussing his scumpartner at the end of day 5. Moving his vote anywhere else would have had no effect. Thus, his post at the end of day 5 makes perfect since with him being the GF.

You mean, two

investigated

innocents, right?

That the best defense you've got?

[BillyTwilight]

Day 5:

Post #227: Clears White as scum based on his play at the end of day 4. A basic rundown of the game situation.

Post #228: "If we want to shoot for the goon, we're down to choosing between Rogueben and Twilight if we assume White is clean." Later states, "In case any of you are skeptical about my guesses here, I'll only say that I've been right about a lot this game. No guarantee I'll keep being right, but I was right about Kinetic, Glork and Shteven. After being pretty right-on about MoS, Sarcastro, Guardian, Autumn, ManaSpryte." Bit of a misrepresentation of his history: He FOSed Kinetic towards the end of day 4, he was constantly bringing up the possibility of Glork being the SK in day 4. His claim to be right about Guardian is laughable, since he spent much of day 1 talking about Guardian being a SK, and his only comment about Guardian day 2 was that Guardian was "off the table for me." after Guardian's doc claim. He missed entirely Guardian's lynch on day 3 and spent a good bit of time day 4 stating that he would have believed Guardian and attacking players that voted Guardian. Of course this last part is all retrospective and has no bearing whatsoever on being "right" about Guardian. Only comment on Spryte is that her posts had a "hint of township to them".

Post #229: "I just read Twilight's posts and I can definitely see him as the SK. Scumhunting-ish all game, with no success, lots of talk about killing potential SK candidates so we're not stuck with them at LoL. Dropping out of sight for long periods of time, then feeling the need to make up for it with spectacular CSI-style posts. Why the SK and not the GF? His SK talk and the tone of his scumhunting, which seems somewhat sincere, particularly the bit about Kinetic and possibly the bits about Glork being scum and YB being scum." This is a flip-flop on his day 4 post where he had me as 2nd least likely SK. Furthermore, he had just previously made an argument for lynching BT or RB as the goon. After implying that I am a good SK candidate, wouldn't it make sense for him to settle on RB as a good goon candidate? He doesn't. States, "Finally, as SK his motive to kill Kinetic last night would be so that no one would suspect that BT could POSSIBLY be the SK, considering he'd just cleared Kinetic of being scum the day before." Accuses me of the same WIFOMY play that he's been defending himself with all game. Also a bit of a slip because he states that I am more likely the SK than the GF; oops, he was supposed to be arguing about my likelihood as SK or goon.

Post #230: Tells Yos that he will get back to questions Yos asked earlier, one of which was, "For quite a while now you've been seeming to downplay the chances of Rougeben being scum, but have never really explained why. Care to explain?" As far as I can tell MBL never answers Yos, at least not till much later in the day.

Post #231: Accuses me of being defensive about his attack (same tactic he uses later when he can't refute my rebuttal today). Posts as a reason for not being the SK: "The following is WIFOMmable, but I'll let you decide whether I'm being sincere or not. The SK needs to off TWO scum to win, and they also need to avoid being lynched. The SK BRUTALLY missed a crosskill last night, and I will say that if I were the SK, there is NO WAY I'd have shot for Kinetic. It was a terrible play unless it was intended to mislead, and even then, the SK is up against a wall almost as badly as town is now. The missed kill opportunity is devastating to the SK's chances. I will say clearly and unambiguously, there is NO WAY I would have made that kill." Implies that I am dumb enough to make that kill since I am his SK suspect at the moment.

Post #233: responds to RB. I'll analyze RB's play day 5 with respect to MBL momentarily.

Next post of note is #237: "I think Twilight has played a great game, and that he is scum. A lot of intangibles make me feel that way. Words he uses, tone, underlying defensiveness, call it whatever, I'm pretty sure of it now. I don't think he's the right lynch today but I don't have another solid choice. I'm also thinking Yos may be scum, but my gut's not as strong on that one. I'll put a lot more time into this game before it's through--as Twilight says, D1-D2 play should give us a lot to work with if we scrutinize it carefully. I need to reread YB to understand again why I've been so wont to clear his ass. etc etc etc." A tactic MBL uses throughout the rest of the day; that is, make a case based on things that are effectively undefendable. Note that he seems again to be SK hunting here. If he was genuine earlier when pointing out that RB and BT should be the two top choices for goon hunting, finding me to be a likely SK should have led him to the conclusion that RB was the goon. He never addresses this.

He has a couple of posts as "Silent Lee", 2845 and 2846. He votes Yos on "strong gut feeling" and states, "Twilight, Yos and White, that's my guess. Maaaaybe substitute TCS in there for one of em, I dunno. Whoever the bad guys are, they've done quite well and I imagine they'll whack me tonight. Good luck to the remaining townies and my advice to you for tomorrow is: read for tone--because you won't catch good players by their vote patterns. Smoke some weed, get a little tipsy, read their posts and sniff out the bullshit." Note that his vote for Yos falls directly after Yos and I had a long argument over the likelihood of Yos=SK. Again goes to show the SK-hunting nature of MBL's play here. Note that he also now has White as one of his top suspects, contrary to what he stated earlier in the day, where he was "tempted to clear White".

Post #240: "I voted Yos cause my gut MASSIVELY tells me he is some flavor of scum in this game. He's a little too snarky for Yos and not playing to win as town."

#241: "ok mister cliche i take it all back your not a scumbaggo" in response to Yos's genuine point, "I certanly am playing to win for the town. You, however, voted me right before the deadline, in a situation where it was pretty clear I was not going to be lynched by deadline because there were only about 3 of us actually even attempting to play the game, and where a no-lynch would be really, really bad for the town. If anyone is "not playing to win for the town" here, it's you."

#242: "Yeah, Yos is scum, bank on it. Rogueben is a possibility. I'll keep my vote on the sure bet. Smile"

#243: "New people, be wary of Twilight and Yos... they'd be excellent scum, and it's clear that the scum are playing well this game."

#244:

Interesting that almost everyone supports the Rougeban lynch at the moment. I wonder who his scum buddy is. I'm starting to think that I may have been wrong about MBL, and that he's more likely to be mafia then SK; he keeps attacking me while not even commenting recently on the fact that, well, everyone else seems to think Rougeban is scum, and he tried to force a no-lynch right before the deadline, which looks like a pro-mafia move to me.

This is SO weak. So your hypothesis is that I, brilliant scum godfather mastermind, have decided to tie a noose around my neck and attach the other end of the rope to the rapidly sinking Rogueben? Despite all the other evidence in the game that points to me NOT being scum?

Yeah, you're probably the mafia godfather. You're too defensive and looking for little advantages instead of using the totality of the evidence and that big brain I know you have, Yos.

In fact:

I wonder who his scum buddy is.

This sounds transparently false. Time to investigate the possibility that Yos is busing his partner RB in hopes that it'll clear him for endgame.

#245:

he keeps attacking me while not even commenting recently on the fact that, well, everyone else seems to think Rougeban is scum

What's wrong with attacking you and only you? Because Rogueben's truly scum and you want me to look bad if/when he comes up scum?

Calling Yos+RB as the scumteam.

Talk about totally disingenuous. So now MBL has called Yos+RB the scum team on basically NO EVIDENCE and still REFUSES to vote RB, though by percentages that's the FAR SUPERIOR PLAY if he really thinks Yos+RB is the scumpair. Further, completely contrasts with his play early today where he cleared Yos for basically the exact same reasons as he was calling Yos the GF day 5. It's TRANSPARENT that MBL want's Yos lynched, and only Yos lynched, and is saying whatever he can to get that lynch. Makes huge sense if MBL thinks that Yos is the SK.

#247:

Have you ever seen me play the WIFOM game as scum, Yos? It's not my style, ask anyone. I lay low and blend in like a perfect lil townie.

All the arguments for me being town/SK this game are 100% WIFOM, and they're silly in my eyes. I understand you guys might think "well, he's tryin the WIFOM just this once, no one'll ever expect it" but that's just not the case. It wouldn't be fun for me.

You just don't feel like protown Yos. Prove me wrong.

Terrible logical fallacy (Burden of Proof). MBL's play is getting slipshod. He wants Yos lynched, but he can't make or won't make a case for why - much like he was doing for me earlier in the day.

#248: "I found YB townish all game and am hesitant to find him scummy. Wouldn't you say that if he's scum, he played pretty damned well? Didn't overreact, didn't panic under pressure, I dunno, I'm just not that comfortable with throwing away my D1-D3 read and taking a stab at him." Contradicts his earlier accusation that RB/Yos are the scumpair. "In all honesty I'm not reading old posts carefully anymore, I'm relying on gut feel from the past and new impressions. Strudel, not so bad. CTD, not so bad. Fonz is good, comes across not so bad. Scum--Yos, BT, RB? Two of them give me the willies this game. TCS did too, but in between the reads of bored-townishness." MBL completely abandons actually trying to figure out who is what, relying totally on gut-feelings that players are playing scummy, showing no interest in really trying to make the case for any player being a specific scum-role.

#249: "Hmm, wait, Strudel, if I was partners with Yos, would I have really missed the opportunity to gas RB just now, which would have taken the game to 5 with 2 mafia tomorrow? If I was scum with ANYONE but RB, would I pass on that gas? not bloody likely."

#250: "I'm going on vibe. I've suggested that you and Twilight have given me scum vibes all game long, while my logic for finding Rogueben/YB scummy is incomplete and in direct conflict with my opinion of him from D1-D3. Thus, I'm pushing the player I think has played most scummily: Yosarian2. I think I've picked a winner. If we run into trouble getting Yos lynched, I'll reevaluate the Rogueben situation.... I think my main hesitation on Rogueben is that like Albert, he was nearly offed D1 and I'd be shocked if his partners would have pushed HIM when Albert was such an easy option. Numbers mean a lot in mafia, and the dead known scum seemed way too willing to go (-1) on D1." The last part is funny because it flies right in the face of his current attack on me. While MoS and Sarc never really tried to convince people to vote YB over Albert, I made a concerted effort all the way up to deadline to stop the Albert wagon and get YB lynched. Another example of MBL's thought process changing to match his current needs in the game.

#251: "It's been a long time since I've made this clear, so I'll post it again: I was wrong on Albert, right on Mastermind of Sin, right on Sarcastro, right on AutumnEvenings, right on Guardian, right on ManaSpryte, wrong on HackerHuck, right on Shteven, right on Kinetic... Any case that I'm mafia has to address the fact that I have the best scumhunting record in this game and in fact was the person primarily responsible for the Sarcastro lynch. Anyone ignoring that fact is either lazy or scum." The exact same defense of him not being mafia (voting with MoS, vote on Sarc). It's amazing how often MBL goes back to that throughout the game. Also note that as above his record for clearing several of those townies is extremely shoddy at best, one liners calling someone townish doesn't equate with being "right" about them as far as I am concerned. Also love how he over-emphasizes his importance on the Sarc wagon when his entire post history with regards to Sarc for that day was "Sarc doesn't seem like he's scumhunting" plus the vote.

#255: "You're not always this tedious. And I've never been in a game with Yos-scum. Now I'm pretty sure I know what it looks like." In response to Yos.

#256: "Honestly, I think Glork was playing recklessly and scummily in an attempt to survive longer as the cop. I found people more protown for attacking him, rather than less. Scum would be more likely to cozy up to the threat, like MoS did." Again goes against his current thinking about me; I attacked Glork massively on day 3; it was the reason that Glork ended up claiming.

#257, 258: Analysis of Yos play, final statement "Nothing incredibly compelling there, it's mostly inconsistency of suspicions and mealy-mouthed word choices that bely a reticence to lie. I will take a quick look at the rest of Yos's play right now, cause I think town play from him would be much cleaner."

#259: Review of Simenon

#260: Review of Fonz

#261: Review of CTD

#262: "My gut feeling is that I liked Rogueben's entrance to the game. He seemed somewhat genuinely curious about possible mafia. It's bothersome that his trust of TCS turned to a vote in a few days, and he found five players townish upon entry (Yos, CTD, Twilight, Jack, TCS) and only 2 1/2 scummy (MBL, Shteven, Kinetic). I can state plainly that he was wrong on all his scum suspects, and wouldn't you figure that scum would at least have ONE scum on their suspects list? Be it their partner or the SK?" More reasons why MBL should have been at least interested in a lynch of RB, but yet defends him anyway.

#264, in response to Yos pleading for a RB lynch: "If we lynch RB and he's mafia, we're a loooong way from winning... or are you implying that lynching non-mafia will bring you VERY close to winning as the mafia GF?" Again, doesn't jive with his early day 6 clear of Yos. I don't think I've ever seen a townie completely change his mind about something like this over a night phase.

#265: States that he'd be happy with a Simenon or Yos lynch. He then spends the next 4 posts reviewing Simenon. Most of this is negative with respect to Simenon and his predecessors, but he does show some points that he found to be townish from White. Interestingly he publishes his list of best scenarios next:

"Bottom line, White looked like he gave a shit and tried to find scum, Simenon and Strudel didn't. Was White really a master faker of concern? Anyone know his history?

We can:

1) Lynch Yos
2) Lynch Rogueben
3) No-lynch

Can everyone please rank these three possibilities? They're in order for me from best to worst."

So Simenon isn't even mentioned as a possibility (I've shown already that lynching Simenon-SK was a patently horrible move for MBL-GF, and he couldn't take the risk he was wrong about Yos and Simenon was the SK).

This is great, he has lynching RB as being better than no lynching, but he absolutely allowed that to happen and has tried to defend that decision earlier today:

And Fonz, I just had a fairly long post responding to your issues. My computer bluescreened, so here's a summary:

* To switch to RB from Yos I'd have had to join YOS on RB. Just couldn't do it--didn't want to hand the game to Yos, didn't consistently think he was busing RB, game-long internal conflict for me on YB.
* Regardless of whether I am scum or town, switching to Simenon was the percentage play. I didn't switch because I'm stubborn, don't like to mislynch, and I really thought Jack and White were townish.
* I said we "needed to lynch someone" in hopes that someone would move to Yos. I should have clarified that "lynching someone" was not an option for me if it meant joining my top suspect on the wagon.

Dancing and jiving. He listed lynching RB as being the second best lynch of the day. He repeatedly stated throughout the latter part of the day that Yos/RB could be a scumpair, but he decided to go with his worst option because he didn't want to give Yos the satisfaction? Try this one; lynching RB would have looked like bussing and opened himself way up to a SK night kill. Fixed.

So we've already covered the end of the day. MBL only had two choices to move his vote to; both were bad, so he couldn't move it. He even admit's hoping that someone would vote Yos after his predeadline post. His flop on Yos makes a lot more sense now. He couldn't bring a case against Yos as the SK on day 5; it would have been transparent, especially since town was much better served goon hunting within the uninvestigated pool. Instead he relied on gut-feelings to try and get Yos lynched. Today started and he now knows that Yos is town, so he dropped the possibility of Yos bussing his partner, which he mentioned a lot in day 5. Makes more sense then one day feeling that Yos-GF would bus his partner hardcore, and changing his mind about that over the night phase.


RB's day 5 play starts with a vote for MBl for being the SK, which is easily deflected by MBL. He defends it for one post, and though he leaves his vote on MBL for much of the remainder of the day, he never tries to persuade anyone to vote for MBL again. He still lists MBL as his most likely SK suspect, and being the goon with the most motivation to want the SK dead, it seems he'd really have tried to hit MBL if he had a chance, especially with the MBL-Yos fight that ensued later and CTD's vote for MBL down the stretch. His vote for Simenon at the end of the day makes a lot more sense as SK hunting; in fact he asks Fonz, "What about Simenon/Jack etc as a serial killer?" later. I think he expected MBL to move his vote to Simenon before the day ended, not doing the calculation that lynching a Simenon-SK would have been disaster for MBL at that time. RB's vote for MBL just doesn't seem genuine, and since as the goon he should have been genuinely hunting the SK, it makes more sense as distancing than anything else.

MBL's day 5 play is extremely scummy. His whole defense for not being scum falls down to skirmishing with MoS day 1, which could easily be distancing, and voting for Sarc day 2, which could easily be in response to Glork singling out both MBL and Sarc multiple times before MBL voted Sarc; an attempt to distract Glork from putting MBL and Sarc together.

I'm more than comfortable with an MBL lynch.

Vote: MBL

[BillyTwilight]

MBL's whole defense for not being scum falls down to skirmishing with MoS day 1, which could easily be distancing, and voting for Sarc day 2, which could easily be in response to Glork singling out both MBL and Sarc multiple times before MBL voted Sarc; an attempt to distract Glork from putting MBL and Sarc together.

vote: MBL

This is such a dreadful misrepresentation of gamestate that I can't help but think you've blown a gasket one way or another. Masterful OMGUS that leaves out a good 15-20 reasons why I'm not scum. The fathers of propagandist techniques would be proud, Billy.

This is effectively the same argument you have been using for why you are town all game, see post #2996. To clarify, I don't think that your actions wrt MoS and Sarc are scummy. I find them to be neutral; however, that's exactly the reason I brought them up. The case for voting you is based mostly on your play from day 5 and to some extent from day 4. Your defense was the actions with MoS and Sarc, which you presented as proof you are town. I don't believe that, as I think you had plenty of incentive to play with respect to Sarc and MoS the way you have as scum; I don't think said play is a reliable defense for your being town.

Question is, are you squirming because you're scum or is Fonz egging you on so Yos will vote you tomorrow instead of him? Don't think your recent loss of cool goes unnoticed.

Can you please demonstrate this? You have relied on calling my play defensive or emotional for a while now. Please show me how this is the case, again keeping in mind the context of my play this game.

Yes, I'm close to clearing Thok, and I need to reread Yos, but many of my feelings turned 180 when RB came up scum. As I've said, I had a modest protown read on YB all game, and Yos didn't seem as helpful and "professional" as usual, and Yos "suspecting" RB was a MAJOR reason for not shifting my vote to RB at deadline. Learning RB's alignment obviously made me realize that Yos was either a masterful buser or just plain astute town.

I paid some lip service to Yos being a buser of RB yesterday, but I'm not sure I ever bought it 100%.

If you made me bet my life on it right now, I'd say Yos wasn't busing. I need to think it all through again when I read Yos, which'll come after I read CTD. (Reading TCS will come last, as I know it's going to be painful.)

Emphasis mine.

he keeps attacking me while not even commenting recently on the fact that, well, everyone else seems to think Rougeban is scum

What's wrong with attacking you and only you? Because Rogueben's truly scum and you want me to look bad if/when he comes up scum?

Calling Yos+RB as the scumteam.

I don't know how you'd classify this in terms of percentages, but I read it as a confident statement in this being the likely scumpair. It's true that you soften this statement some later in the day, however, I don't think I've ever seen a townie have as much of a change of heart over the night phase as you showed here.

1.) You were calling Yos/RB as a likely scumpair, meaning that RB would have to be the goon.

2.) Instead of looking back at their play to see if that made since, you stuck with keeping your vote on Yos, and you actively tried to convince others to vote for him.

3.) If you even thought that was a reasonable possibility you should have been much more willing to vote RB.

4.) If you thought Yos was likely scum, but were unsure if he was the SK or GF (almost all of your case against Yos was based on feeling and intuition; nothing in that case should have distinguished between Yos being the SK or the GF), you should have spent some time trying to identify a likely goon for Yos=GF. With the exception of the few statements about RB, you never did.

5.) Point 4 goes more for you hunting Yos as SK than as scum, something the GF would be extremely interested in.

6.) You posted a list of three possible plays at the end of the day: Lynch Yos, Lynch RB, No lynch, and you ranked them in that order.

7.) You explicitly had the chance to at least make your second best option happen; instead you allowed the third.

8.) After the fact, today, you add the caveat that your 2nd option wasn't going to work for you because Yos was voting RB - of course, the chance of lynching RB without Yos' vote there is effectively zero so this caveat makes no sense; plus it was added later. When you posted the list you had lynching RB as better than a no lynch KNOWING FULL WELL THAT YOS WASN'T GOING TO UNVOTE RB RIGHT BEFORE THE DEADLINE. Furthermore, you failed to chose one of your better options over your worst when you had already made the case that their was a possible Yos/RB scumpair... in fact, you called them as the scumpair well previous to the no lynch actually happening, yet still chose your worst option instead of lynching RB on the off chance that your read on RB was wrong... when you had already expressed lynching RB to be a better option than no lynching.

9.) Upon RB turning up goon, you immediately dismiss the likelihood of Yos being the GF. This goes further to point #5; it makes your attempt at calling Yos+RB as the mafia pair seem transparent; once you realized that Yos wasn't the SK, you distanced yourself from the Yos+RB comments.

Furthermore, you had a very strong winning strategy had RB only moved his vote to Yos. You were very confident in Yos being scum yesterday, which means you were very confident in Yos=SK; had Yos been lynched as the SK we would be in LyLo with the difference between lynching Simenon=SK being that 4 uninvestigated players would have remained. You would only have needed one vote on the extremely scummy Simenon from myself or CTD/Fonz (whichever you left alive) to quicklynch to victory, something much more easily accomplished than having to get one vote on me in the event of lynching SimenonSK.

Your play makes perfect sense as scum and no sense as town.

2 down, 1 to go.

I'm not interested in lynching The Fonz at any point in this game, based mostly on TCS' "gamble"

play at the end of Day 3. Based on play to this point I also feel like

Yos is unlikely to be scum for now, though I can't eliminate him as a possible GF

.

Both CTD and MBL are extremely suspicious as far as I am concerned. I've already made an argument for a CTD/RB scumpair, but I'll post it here again for convenience.

The main point is that I find both CTD and MBL to be protecting RB yesterday. One of them is town who thought RB was town. Distinguishing which it is will probably point out the GF for us.

So tell me, Billy:

1) Did you do the legwork on Yos, or are you going to stand pat on this hand?
2) Did you ever reread CTD and inHim to see whether or not they were protecting YB/RB, or did you forget you were going to do that?
3) You really think TCS's "gamble" play is that strong of a town-tell that you can eliminate Fonz from consideration as scum? That's ALL the evidence you need to feel comfortable, and yet you're the type of person who enjoys posting encyclopedias of propaganda?

1.) I've not reread Yos' play yet. I've concentrated on the two players I felt were most likely to be scum going into the day.

2.) Holy crap, I can't believe your even doing this. The post you snipped from is post #2995. It contains the very work that you are asking for in this question, which you cut out of the quote. The statement I made at the end of that post ("The main point is...") was in reference to comparing the play with respect to RB between yourself and CTD. I'd already analyzed CTD's play (Was much quicker because there is far less content and I had already done the legwork on inHim); your analysis I have just finished. To answer the question I posed, your flip flop on Day 5 with respect to a Yos+RB scumpair and subsequent going back and forth on that idea as outlined above looks much less like town being wrong about RB than CTD's mostly constant defense of RB as town.

3.) I've played with TCS a fair amount last year, and I feel I have a decent read on his style. He was a gambit driven player, but his scum-gambits are much more sneaky/subtle than his town gambits, in my experience. For instance, in Clue 2 we were scum together, and when he was at L-1 on day 1 he claimed my flavor as a signal to hammer him. It was not terribly sound play, however he was trying to be very crafty to pull it off. The gambit he was devising for the end of day 4 is much more open, and left himself way more vulnerable as scum than I think he would have played; however, it fits exactly with how I would have expected him to play as town. So yeah, I think that it is strong evidence for Fonz=town. It's a less time consuming point to make than the long legwork it took to clear Kinetic based on his notes, but the end result is the same: I don't think scum would have done what either one did, and there are far better candidates for scum in the game; therefore, I think Fonz is town.

[BillyTwilight]

I'm still here, and still think we should lynch MBL. The 9 points I made in the middle of post #3106 are the most concise and strongest evidence for you being scum, in my opinion. I'd like you to answer them directly, please.

Also, MBL, you seem to be gunning mostly for The Fonz right now. How do you explain TCS's late day 4 actions and his early day 5 explanation? I stick by my read of that play. Furthermore, do you

really

think YB's multiple confirm votes of TCS and his massive attack on TCS day 1 is indicative of TCS being his GF? Of

all

the players in the game, I find Fonzy most likely to be town, and pressure coming against him from two different sources just seems completely forced, from my point of view, especially since

none

of it has addressed or even attempted to explain what TCS could have planned to save his bacon if we had forced him to hammer and tell us whatever he was going to tell us at the end of day 4.

Thok, how much have you played with Yos? Do you feel like you have a reasonable meta on his play? I ask because, since you replaced in, of all the players in the game the one who seems to have changed in beliefs, tone, and style the most is Yos.

I think that the lack of an RB vote-switch yesterday is a bit of a red herring. As far as the end of day voting from day 4, I think it comes down to 2 possibilities:

1.) Yos is GF, and RB couldn't move his vote to force a lynch of anyone else.

2.) Yos is not GF, and RB

should

have moved his vote to Yos to force a mislynch.

If 1 is correct then RB's hands were tied and he couldn't do anything.

If 2 is correct then RB was playing dumb and/or scared, in which case I won't accept as a defense "if I was a GF then RB would have moved his vote", e.g. - MBL's post #3108. Just because a scumpartner played wrong doesn't mean that you can defend yourself based on that play. If we believe that RB played optimally just before the deadline then Yos is the GF; if not, then it is erroneous for any one else in the game to claim as a defense that RB would have moved his vote if the were scum together, because that holds for every other player in the game and it would have been a mistake by RB in the first place.

[BillyTwilight]

Thok, how much have you played with Yos? Do you feel like you have a reasonable meta on his play? I ask because, since you replaced in, of all the players in the game the one who seems to have changed in beliefs, tone, and style the most is Yos.

I've played with Yos2 a lot. I wouldn't claim to have a good meta on his play.

Do you believe Yos2's change in "beliefs, tone and style" is a scum tactic, or just reacting to a new player?

Also, why are you so certain that TCS was actually telling the truth about his day 4 intentions?

Yos is confusing me a lot. Of all the players left in the game, Yos is the one who seems to be skating through the day the most.

1.) His unvote of MBL makes no sense. Regardless of how he tried to spin it, your reasons for not voting MBL were effectively the same reasons that MBL gave in his defense when Yos and Fonz were voting him early day. They weren't enough for Yos when MBL made them, but when you made them he unvoted.

2.) Today's content has been more dense and filled with analysis than any so far, per post, in the game. MBL has analyzed myself and Fonz, and to some degree, CTD. I have analyzed CTD and MBL. Fonz has analyzed MBL. Thok has analyzed Fonzy. And there of course have been rebuttals and counter rebuttals aplenty by all of us. All of this has taken into account early- and mid-game actions with a hard look over the record more than at any point in the game. Yos has commented on almost none of it.

3.) Almost all of Yos' posts, especially since you entered the game, have been addressing or reacting to just the few posts before he posts, ignoring most of the intermediate posting done between his posts:

Post #2993: Congratulates himself on RB and immediately suspects MBL.

Post #2999: Votes MBL

Post #3002: Gives a reason for his vote (based solely on MBL not moving his vote at the end of day 5).

Post #3004: Disagrees with MBL; states he can see mafia finding a no lynch better than a lynch of town Simenon.

Post #3006: Continues to pound the MBL no-vote-switch point .

Post #3020: Continues in the same vein.

Thok enters the game in post #3035.

Post #3062: Yos responds to Thok's post #3054. Between his last two posts there has been major arguing and analysis done between MBL-BT and Thok-Fonz. Yos completely ignores it and unvotes MBL based on Thok's reasonings, as pointed out above.

Post #3064: Defends the GF can't kill if he's away argument. Says BT and Thok are not likely to be scum.

Post #3075: Makes the point that scum would be looking to clear as few people as possible. Asks for everyone to answer Thok's question about "2 people they don't find scummy". Asks for more clarification on why I found Fonzy to be innocent.

Post #3085: Defends his MBL unvote; states that MBL's defense was too WIFOMy and Thok's was more logical. I still argue that they come down to basically the same thing so he defense of the unvote still doesn't make sense to me.

Post #3087: In response to asking why MBL-town would behave the way he did, Yos is kind of flustered, basically because this is the same thing he kept asking MBL when he was voting MBL, and he never got a real answer for; feels like more backtracking on the vote/unvote.

Post #3112: Talks about why Rb wouldn't hammer someone. He points out that Fonz, BT, and Thok should be considered for GF because of this. Again this post is in response to 1 point by MBL in post #3108.

Post #3125: Defends himself from being the GF by saying he would have moved his vote over to someone else before deadline.

Post #3131: Tries to explain why RB wouldn't have moved his vote to Yos - said it would have been "WIFOMY" and would likely cause others to move their vote to RB before deadline.



That's it. That's all of Yos's contribution to the day. Aside from the mind-boggling reversal on believing MBL's defense he also has the point that almost all of his posts are completely reactionary to one point raised by another player in the thread. Note how many of his posts have significant gaps between them; those gaps are chocked full of information and ideas, and he hasn't commented on those pages-long disputes going on between a lot of the players. Even though he said everyone should state two people they thought were town he never followed through himself. He posted that Thok, BT, Fonz were likely GF candidates, though he had BT and Thok as likely protown a few posts before. Even though he unvoted MBL, he's never made a definitive statement on what he believes about MBL, that I saw. He's leaving plenty of room to jump back on MBL if the situation calls for it. He's looked at effectively none of the information available from the first 5 days of the game, choosing to concentrate more on the end of day 5.

If he was scum I think he would probably have hammered MBL by now, as he probably wouldn't get a lot of heat for it in LyLo, so I don't really think that he's likely to be the GF at this point, but his play has been very different than what I would expect from him, and it's mostly changed since you came into the game. His early day stuff is more in keeping with the rest of the game. I just get this feeling that he opens the thread every couple of days, reads through the last few posts, picks something short to respond to, posts, and goes on about his business for a while, and it bothers me. MBL and Fonz have both specifically asked him questions (MBL wanted to know how Yos thought about MBL's scumhunting, and Fonz wanted to know how Yos felt about MBL's case against me), and he never even addressed their questions, even to say "I might get to it later" or "I don't know", etc. I just see his play as being different right now than I would expect; I'd figure him to be more active in the game as it approached its end, and it seems the opposite is true.


As to my certainty on TCS telling the truth; what do you think TCS could have done if we had forced him to hammer and answer whatever it was he was going to say at the end of day 4? I can't think of anything. I suppose he could have "planned" it the way it happened - to conveniently not be around when the vote happened and then post a "clearing" strategy for himself. What do you think the chances of that are, Thok? How do you think TCS would have survived if we had taken the opportunity to force his claim from him on the end of day 4? We could have, and he would have had no way to stop it. So unless he had a solid backup plan in place that I just can't understand, I don't see how he would have thought that he would get away with it. But I can see exactly how he thought he was being clever and helpful if he was town trying to protect town's only remaining cop.

I want anyone to give me a plausible explanation for what TCS would have done at the end of day 4 to save himself if we had forced him to hammer. Barring that, I don't understand why anyone would be suspicious of Fonzy at the moment.

I have to run now; I'll respond to MBL's posts in a bit.

[BillyTwilight]

I want anyone to give me a plausible explanation for what TCS would have done at the end of day 4 to save himself if we had forced him to hammer. Barring that, I don't understand why anyone would be suspicious of Fonzy at the moment.

"I wanted to be the hammer. I haven't done it in a while and it's always fun to do so. Thanks for the opportunity."

I sure I could think of other things that work.

I would prefer to lay the hammer, for my own reasons, but until his wagon builds you know where I stand.

I would like to request a vote count.

Also, I am now stating my wish to be the one who places the hammer on any lynch that occurs today, and that's looking like Shteven. You will know why when I do so.

EBWOP: To be technically correct, nothing above the line where TCS voted for me is about me. Afterwards, he states he wants to be the hammer, which is odd. He's mentioned this again recently. Apparently he would unvote and revote for me at the end to hammer? The only reason I could think of for this is some very odd role, but this game has open roles with all PM's quoted. He's just being strange, or maybe has a bet with a friend to see who can hammer the most players?

Care to explain, TCS?

I will explain when I hammer, scum.

Honestly, White, I'm not giving the scum any more info than I have to to win the game for the town.

kthxbai

To all of you who are voting me because I said I wanted to hammer--you are god damn idiots.

Think

for about a minute about why I would do so. I do not wish to give the scum/sk an opportunity to covertly work out who will nightkill whom.

I'm sorry, but how does you hammering prohibit the other scum from communicating or thinking about who to nk?

Think for yourself, ffs. What would my reason be assuming TCS =! Scum?

His asking to be the hammer vote was emphatic and clearly seemed to be role-based. Nothing short of something role-related would have kept him from being lynched for pulling this stunt. Again, Thok, I'd like a way for TCS to have pulled off a gambit like this in the context of what he was trying to hint at in all of the above posts. After stating all of the above do you think TCS could have said "Hammering is FUN!" and not been summarily lynched the following day?

[BillyTwilight]

Got my prod. I'll read through since my last post and get some thoughts up tonight or tomorrow.

[BillyTwilight]

Sorry guys; the computer at work crashed on Friday, and it's the only net access I have during the day, and I haven't had a chance to post from home. The current plan is to get the data recovered from it tomorrow and get it up and running, after which I will be able to post. Too tired to do any reading now.

[BillyTwilight]

Update: Computer at work is still down, so I'm posting from a student computer lab today. Hopefully my boss can get the lab computer up and running again before the end of the week.


MBL: I asked you to respond to my points in post #3106. You commented on 5 of them. Please respond to the remaining four before I address your response.

Thok: When I last checked the game we were having an argument about TCS's "gambit". You had the last word in post #3142. Tell me, if a player had strongly hinted at having a power role, had asked specifically to be the hammer, and had made it obvious that there was a concrete, not strategical, reason for making the statements they were making, how would you respond to them saying, after hammering, "I wanted to draw reactions from people in order to get scum to overreact. In case I die tonight, these are the people who reacted to my request in a way that looked scummy..."? I know I would have tried to get him lynched ASAP, especially considering that the game was 100 pages long already by that point. I've seen people do that kind of thing in newbie games, or in the early stages of larger games, but do you really see someone making that play after a game is so well established? And you really wouldn't have been EXTREMELY suspicious of TCS had he pulled that kind of stunt after hammering? I still stand by my read that TCS play makes MUCH more sense as town than as the GF.

I generally disagree with pretty much Yos's entire take on the game right now. I only briefly skimmed it, but I don't like the vote for Fonz and I don't like his stance on MBL. Yos, after all of your early day sureness that MBL was scum, you basically are clearing him because you don't know why he would as scum not vote-to-lynch Simenon, but then would night kill him. Answer me, why do you think that Simenon did not vote-to-lynch RB, but then night killed him? I realize they are two different people, but your basically excusing MBL's behavior from the end of day 1 on the argument that scum won't do what MBL did, when we have an example in this very game of scum doing exactly what you don't think scum would have done.

I have more I want to comment on, but I'll wait for the rest of MBL's response before giving a longer post. I have to quickly post in my only other active game and then get back over to my lab now, anyway.

[BillyTwilight]

@Billy: I didn't think it was obvious that TCS was "clearly hinting at a power role," but rather that he was merely planning to do something weird. Looking over his posts, only TCS's 2653 sort of makes that line of thought clear. And again, this is essentially your only argument against TCSscum.

This is rubbish. You have to be stretching to interpret his play as anything other than a role-related play. He blatantly talks about not giving scum any more information about who to NK than they already have. He talks about the rest of the town understanding what he was doing when he hammered. Everything TCS said, including the underlying tone of frustration in his posts, points to making a major revelation when he hammered. You honestly think after all of that build up he would have turned around and said "These people acted suspicious after I asked to hammer, if I die tonight, look at them tomorrow." You consider that safe, logical play for TCS=scum? Especially considering he was investigated innocent at the time and could have simply played it cool and waited till later to make any kind of scum-gambit he thought appropriate? Bullshit.

Similarly, I don't believe it's obvious that if TCS didn't make a role related comment when he hammered then he would be run up. You've claimed that, but I don't necessarily consider that a pro-town sign. (Also, if he was hinting at a protown power role, nothing really made sense at a time: any doctor should have protected Manaspryte, any mason knew that Glork was the likely kill, and anybody else was essentially impossible.)

What is your point? This is the underlying reason why there was a big reaction to TCS's play during that time. Again, the reaction of other players when he made that statement should be highly indicative to you that, regardless of what you think, players in the game were expecting something major from TCS, not a lame scum trap that you might use day 1 in a newbie game. Just furthers the point that a lame ending to TCS's gambit would have gone a long way to getting him lynched the following day.

Given that context, Yos's 2662 asking for people to stop talking about the topic should be seen as a protown sign.

I don't follow what you mean here. Please elaborate. I don't think anyone would say that #2662 is a scumtell, so I don't understand why you are even mentioning it.

I'm also curious why you think this line of discussion is likely to help us catch scum. Given your vote, I feel like your highest priority should be either convincing us of the merits of an MBL lynch or reassessing your own views of that lynch.

Because right now the only other person being seriously questioned by players in the game is The Fonz. I'm trying to convince everyone else that lynching Fonzy is a bad idea. Mislynching town right now would not be the best thing for us, do you think? I don't understand how arguing to avoid mislynching town should be construed as a scummy.

Also, there's a fairly big difference between MBL and Simenon in that MBL was fairly active before the deadline, while Simenon was not. Simenon literally made only one post in the three weeks before the deadline, and that one was a response to the prod just before deadline.

Perhaps. Doesn't change the fact that he was voting for Yos when he could have been voting for RB. Your argument here would be much more reasonable if Simenon wasn't around to make the NK. Night only lasted 3 days, so he was active enough at that point to decide to kill RB. I HIGHLY doubt that he would have been ready and willing to kill RB in the night phase, and not ready to move his vote to RB a few days before when he posted a day before deadline. The point is that I believe his vote placement and night kill choice were intentional. He didn't have an epiphany during the night phase and decide to kill RB. I'm merely providing an example where scum could have voted to lynch someone and didn't, then night killed them, something that Yos doesn't think scum would do.

The whole Yos2 is scummy for misreading the game argument doesn't do much for me right now. If you think MBL is the last scum, the right point of view is to try and convince others that you are right, not attack others as scum for misanalyzing data. And if you don't think MBL is scum, why are you voting for him?

Show me where I called Yos scummy, please. I disagree with him, and his opinions about the game so far. See post #3139, my only real analysis of Yos's play. I come to the conclusion that I don't see him as being a very likely GF, but I don't think his contribution is helping. I basically state the same thing in post #3189. Never do I call him scummy. I disagree entirely with his opinion on the game right now. I think Fonz is the worst lynch we could have today, and I think MBL is scum. Yos thinks the opposite, and I'm trying to show him that he's wrong.

Has anybody looked over beanbagboy's thoughts on MBL early on? In particular, anybody want to try to explain why scum would suggest their godfather is an SK day 1 in an open game that potentially has a vig? MOS also did the vote MBL over FOS: YB thing on replacing in (from scum that's often town voted and scum attacked), and attacked MBL with at least one completely flawed reason (claiming MBL was lurking, when he wasn't.)

It occurs to me that BT's rant against AE's lurker hunting in post 647 is really anti-town in context. First of all, AE was looking at other people other than just lurkersat that time [she was repeatedly voting YB, who wasn't really lurking at that time], and also at that point a significan portion of the people she was putting pressure on were scum (she was suspicious of both beanbagboy and YB.)

Shrug. I think lurker-hunting is a pointless endeavor that more often lets scum get an advantage than helps town lynch scum. I've seen scum start lurker hunts on multiple occasions. Furthermore, I stated what I believed (and still believe) to be true, that lurker hunting is bad for the town and very often a scum-tactic. The entire conversation that stemmed from that was theoretical in nature and pushed just as much by Yos and other players as it was by me. I consider calling my statement about AE a "rant" mischaracterization. My entire original statment to AE was "I hate lurker hunting. AE, that puts you one down in my book, real fast... You've posted like crazy since you came in. I've not seen anything in your posts that I don't like, really, but fyi, lurker hunting makes me angry. Let the mod handle it, ask for a prod, etc, but lurker hunting sucks, and it's something that scum love to do." How do you characterize that as a rant, especially considering it made up a minor part of that post?

I still think MBL's scum. I am trying to convince you or Yos that MBL is scum. I'm waiting for MBL to respond fully to my posts against him before furthering what I think about his play. I also think that Fonz is not scum, and for you to call into question me trying to keep us from mislynching is ridiculous. To shut my mouth and let him hang

would

be scummy, don't you think?

[BillyTwilight]

I apologize for how long this is in advance. I can't seem to keep things short. Yos and Thok, please read this through and comment. I'm positive the GF is MBL, and I think I've got pretty damning evidence to that, but I'm afraid my thesis long posts are mostly going unread by everyone.

The 9 points I made in the middle of post #3106 are the most concise and strongest evidence for you being scum, in my opinion. I'd like you to answer them directly, please.

You got it. Here goes:

1.) You were calling Yos/RB as a likely scumpair, meaning that RB would have to be the goon.

2.) Instead of looking back at their play to see if that made since, you stuck with keeping your vote on Yos, and you actively tried to convince others to vote for him.

Here is the context of this "calling the scumteam" detail you and Fonz have been harping on:

I wonder who his scum buddy is.

This sounds transparently false. Time to investigate the possibility that Yos is busing his partner RB in hopes that it'll clear him for endgame.

he keeps attacking me while not even commenting recently on the fact that, well, everyone else seems to think Rougeban is scum

What's wrong with attacking you and only you? Because Rogueben's truly scum and you want me to look bad if/when he comes up scum?

Calling Yos+RB as the scumteam.

Two posts from Yos look really sketchy, as if he is a little too sure RB is scum. So I make the impulsive call, even though my gut tells me YB is a townie. Do I really believe it?

Two days later:

More importantly, though, there's no clear scum candidate, which points to either gifted scum or lurky scum. Thus, Yos and Twilight.

I found YB townish all game and am hesitant to find him scummy. Wouldn't you say that if he's scum, he played pretty damned well? Didn't overreact, didn't panic under pressure, I dunno, I'm just not that comfortable with throwing away my D1-D3 read and taking a stab at him.

On the other hand, Twilight and Yos are very good players who've poked their heads up when necessary and to some extent have appeared to be managing their images.

TCS didn't seem overly concerned with managing his image, but his animosity towards Glork looked genuine. Animosity towards a cit or animosity towards suspected scum? It read like TCS really felt Glork was scum. (Though that could be the GF looking for the SK.)

Jack was alternately very townish and very sleazy, and I'm leaning towards thinking his sleaziness was due to laziness. Strudel, not so bad. CTD, not so bad. Fonz is good, comes across not so bad. Scum--Yos, BT, RB? Two of them give me the willies this game. TCS did too, but in between the reads of bored-townishness.

Clearly, my impulsive call was more instinct and less thought out. It went against the way I felt about YB all game, and obviously two days later I've stepped back from that "call" of the scumteam.

After that, at least three more of my posts before end-of-day analyze Yos-YB/RB relationships. I also go into a little detail on all remaining players, including a lot of individual work on RB/YB/Yos.

So I think your insinuation here, that I called a Yos-RB scumpair but did not vet that possibility, is false. Also, any analysis that places a ton of importance on my "call" of that scumteam is trite, in my opinion. In context, the call was not all that significant, it was impulsive and transitory.

I think I can agree with you here, to some degree. In the context of your game long play, the Yos+RB = scumteam call seems small. I would argue though that in the context of that day, especially with concern to who you wanted to lynch, it's a larger part of your play. Alternatively, you could have felt the need to step away from the Yos +RB = scumteam scenario, because strongly defending that idea would have forced you to move your vote to RB, something you would want to avoid if you were RB's GF.

As far as further analysis of Yos/RB connection, I don't see it. I see a post on Yos that is mostly stream of conscious and doesn't really make much of a case about anything (#2947) and few more posts where you repeat most of the same reasons for not liking an RB lynch. Nothing that actually vets a possible Yos/RB scumpair.

3.) If you even thought that was a reasonable possibility you should have been much more willing to vote RB.

I think the combination of (a) I found YB townish all game and (b) Yos was voting RB made it really hard to switch from voting Yos to voting RB. That would only be a good move if they were the scumpair. If Yos was partners with anyone else, it would not only be a bad play, but it would be a personal embarrassment after finding Yos scummiest to help him win the game by lynching an innocent. Couldn't do it.

4.) If you thought Yos was likely scum, but were unsure if he was the SK or GF (almost all of your case against Yos was based on feeling and intuition; nothing in that case should have distinguished between Yos being the SK or the GF), you should have spent some time trying to identify a likely goon for Yos=GF. With the exception of the few statements about RB, you never did.

Totally false. Read my posts from December 7th til end of day whatever and you will see that I reviewed each player's play and gave a summary of how I felt about them. Note I had a positive vibe on RB's entry into the game, was protown on CTD, Fonz and White, and thought Simenon was scummy.

5.) Point 4 goes more for you hunting Yos as SK than as scum, something the GF would be extremely interested in.

I don't recall my overall impression during that period of time. I know Yos felt off to me. If it looks like I was hunting Yos more as SK than as GF, please feel free to point that out. I don't remember that being the case but I could be wrong.

Sounds good, but your timeline is all wrong. You posted your list of 3 possible scenarios (lynch Yos, lynch RB, no lynch) on Jan 23,

after

you claim to have come to the conclusion that a Yos/RB scumpair was wrong. So, even though you claim to have no longer believed that Yos and RB were scum together, you still have lynching RB as better than a no lynch. Your response to my point #4 skirts the issue. You wanted Yos lynched, so you must have thought he was scum. If you are town then it seems to me you would be interested in trying to distinguish YosSK from YosGF, by looking at possible goons for a YosGF. Simply stating your opinion on the remaining players in the game doesn't do that. I would expect to see a curiosity about Yos's role, if your really thought he was scum. You made no attempt to investigate that. That goes to my point #5. Of course you never made a strong argument for Yos = SK. You were already arguing to lynch someone out of the uninvestigated pool; further arguing to lynch someone you thought was the SK would have painted a large MAFIA sign on your back. However, you never (besides your brief calling of Yos+RB=mafia) vetted the possibility of Yos being the GF, and pointing out which of Simenon, RB, or myself were most likely to be his goon, or showed evidence why none were likely to be his goon. There is a lack of what I would think should be natural curiosity about Yos' role in your attack against him.

6+7.) You posted a list of three possible plays at the end of the day: Lynch Yos, Lynch RB, No lynch, and you ranked them in that order.

You explicitly had the chance to at least make your second best option happen; instead you allowed the third.

I didn't realize at the time I posted that list that my second-best option wasn't viable. As I've said before, I was pretty sure about Yos-scum, and I wasn't about to hand him the game by lynching his preferred target. I'd flirted with the idea of Yos busing RB for a post or two, I believe, but then moved away from that idea because it didn't really settle right with me.

You claim to have thought Yos/RB was a possible scumpair at some point in the day yesterday, but to have decided against that. Your posts back that up. However, it was after you claim to have made that distinction that you posted your list of options - lynch Yos, lynch RB, no lynch. So, your claim is basically that you thought there might be chance of Yos/RB, decided that there wasn't a chance of that, that instead Yos was scum and RB was town, and after you came to that conclusion you decided that the best options for the day were to lynch Yos, barring that lynch RB, and barring that no lynch. But you also state that after coming to this conclusion and posting it, you decided that lynching RB was not an option because Yos was voting him. However, you never posted anything about this decision before the deadline passed.

8.) After the fact, today, you add the caveat that your 2nd option wasn't going to work for you because Yos was voting RB - of course, the chance of lynching RB without Yos' vote there is effectively zero so this caveat makes no sense; plus it was added later. When you posted the list you had lynching RB as better than a no lynch KNOWING FULL WELL THAT YOS WASN'T GOING TO UNVOTE RB RIGHT BEFORE THE DEADLINE. Furthermore, you failed to chose one of your better options over your worst when you had already made the case that their was a possible Yos/RB scumpair... in fact, you called them as the scumpair well previous to the no lynch actually happening, yet still chose your worst option instead of lynching RB on the off chance that your read on RB was wrong... when you had already expressed lynching RB to be a better option than no lynching.

Does repeating the same exact thing under different bullet-point numbers, CAPITALIZED INSTEAD, usually make you look pro-town?

When I made that list, I thought:
Hmm, Yos is scummy. He's my top choice.
Hmm, if Yos isn't scum, maybe maybe he's right about YB/RB. That's my second choice I guess.
No-lynch would put us in a really lousy place. We really gotta hit scum.

I'm positive that when I made that list I didn't internally process that my #2 choice would require possibly handing the game to my #1 choice in the process. Or else I would have said something.

The reason I had it in another bullet-point was the timing of your excuse for not voting RB. You never let on that you had this big epiphany till after the fact, later in the day today. To be honest it reads like a poor excuse for why you didn't switch your vote to RB, and isn't backed up by your play at the end of the day yesterday. You claim that when you made your list you didn't process the internal conflict that made you change your mind, and you imply that you do process this information before letting the day go to deadline, so why did you not enlighten us before deadline passed? Why make a post specifically stating that their had to be a lynch right before deadline without at some point saying "I've decided that I am not voting RB because I think Yos is scum and I am not willing to hand him the game and vote someone I've found to be town all game long," or something to that affect. The fact that you

never

let on to this epiphany until you were questioned about your actions a day later reads a lot like trying to come up with an excuse as opposed to actually having felt that way at the time.

9.) Upon RB turning up goon, you immediately dismiss the likelihood of Yos being the GF. This goes further to point #5;

it makes your attempt at calling Yos+RB as the mafia pair seem transparent

; once you realized that Yos wasn't the SK, you distanced yourself from the Yos+RB comments.

Furthermore, you had a very strong winning strategy had RB only moved his vote to Yos. You were very confident in Yos being scum yesterday, which means you were very confident in Yos=SK; had Yos been lynched as the SK we would be in LyLo with the difference between lynching Simenon=SK being that 4 uninvestigated players would have remained. You would only have needed one vote on the extremely scummy Simenon from myself or CTD/Fonz (whichever you left alive) to quicklynch to victory, something much more easily accomplished than having to get one vote on me in the event of lynching SimenonSK.

Your play makes perfect sense as scum and no sense as town.

I've bolded the part that really irks me, cause I'm seeing it repeated over and over again.

Please read my post history this entire game, or if you're lazy, read my 50 posts before that post and 50 after. Let me know if I REALLY consistently thought they were a scumpair, or if it was just a passing thought based on the confidence with which my #1 suspect was attacking HIS #1 suspect.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 594#862594

Again, I'll concede that this was a small part of your play. However, as GF if you had made the strategical decision that lynching RB was a bad choice, opening yourself up to a SK NK and forcing you to have to obtain 2 more lynches to win the game, then pursuing a Yos/RB scumpair had to be dropped. Arguing strongly for a Yos/RB scumpair would have forced you to vote for RB at a deadline or if it became clear that Yos was not going to be lynched. In fact, I find this to be a reasonable interpretation of your play. You want Yos lynched, you're afraid that RB might be lynched, so you throw out the possibility that Yos and RB are scum together (going completely against what you claimed about RB all game). Realizing that making a strong argument for that would mean you should be more than ready to vote RB, and knowing that you didn't want to vote RB, you backed away from that statement. You never significantly investigated any Yos/RB connections, instead clearing RB more on the same gut feelings that you claimed to have throughout the game.


End of day 5 reconstruction.

Nov. 9th: MBL votes Yos on a "strong gut feeling".

Nov. 9 - Dec. 8: MBL maintains his vote of Yos and suggests the possibility of Yos/RB scumpair.

Dec. 8th: Decides that RB is not likely to be scum; maintains that Yos and BT are the best candidates for scum based on gut feelings.

Dec. 8 - Jan. 21: More of the same; short analysis of the remaining players with some concentration on Yos. Still finds RB to be townish.

Jan. 22: "I would be happy with either a Simenon or Yos lynch based on recent play. I can't think of anyone else I'd be enthusiastic about nailing."

Jan. 23: Analysis of Simenon and his predecessors. Finds both Simenon and Strudel to be scummy, but unsure about White. Here he posts his list of options for the day: 1.) Lynch Yos, 2.) Lynch RB, 3.) No lynch. Doesn't include lynching Simenon as an option, although the day before he claimed he would be happy with a Simenon lynch, and nothing in his analysis seems to let on to him finding Simenon to be

that

more townish.

Jan. 24th: "Apologies if I'm wrong, Yos, but you just don't FEEL townie this game. I play on gut mostly, and I can't escape what I feel.... C'mon guys, check in here. Each of us townies has a 50-50 chance of voting scum today, and even the SK has a 33% shot. The mafia have a 20% chance of nailing scum, which would mean they're a little more fatalistic about today... see if you can spot it in their posts."

Jan. 27th: "We need to lynch someone. If we don't, we'll be praying for two crosskills tonight."

Deadline hits 13 minutes after this post.

In order for MBL to be telling the truth about his actions he has to have decided that a Yos/RB team was wrong by Dec. 8. A month and a half later he states that his preference for the outcome of the day would be to lynch Yos, or lynch RB, or no lynch. First of all, the lynch RB option doesn't even make sense coming from MBL, because he had been defending RB for the majority of the day, and for the last month and a half before he made his statement. Secondly, MBL would have us believe that he had decided Yos and RB were not scum together, knew that Yos was voting RB, felt that he was not going to vote RB and "hand Yos the game", but either hadn't thought of that or forgot it when he gave his options, and that in the 4 days between giving his options and the deadline he realized that he couldn't vote for RB without giving into Yos, so refused to move his vote, and never posted any of these thoughts in the interval. I simply can't buy that.

Furthermore, he completely left an option out of his possible list - lynching Simenon. Five days before the deadline he stated that he would be happy with a Simenon lynch, yet after he did an analysis of Simenon (which seems to be mostly inconclusive by his posts) he no longer had lynching Simenon as an option. I asked him about this in post #2981: "I find you list of possibilities for the days outcome odd in post #2975. I understand that you want to lynch Yos - although I think it is pretty ridiculous to be wanting to lynch someone outside of the uninvestigated pool today. However, you list lynching RB as your second best option, followed by no-lynching. Are you indicating that you'd rather no lynch than lynch Simenon? That seems to be a radical turnaround from post #2971. Furthermore, you have consistently stated for the past several weeks if not months that you are not interested in a RB lynch. Why now do you find that a better option than lynching Simenon, who you have stated to find very scummy as well as his predecessors to some degree, with maybe a little backing off on White for perhaps not the best reasons in this particular game?" MBL never responded to this post; in fact, I'd still like an answer to this.

So, end of day options for MBL:

1.) Convince someone to move their vote to Yos.

2.) Lynch RB.

3.) Lynch Simenon.

4.) Do nothing.

It could be argued that even the desire to lynch Yos is scummy. There were 7 players alive, with 4 uninvestigated. If MBL is town, then he knows that either RB, BT, or Simenon is the goon. Couple that with the possibility that the GF and/or the SK might be in the uninvestigated pool and the percentage of hitting scum in that group is much higher than out of that group. Without concrete evidence against a player outside of that group, from a random lynch standpoint it's a much better play to lynch inside that group. Considering MBL's case against Yos was based almost entirely on gut, it seems a very wild and anti-town idea to lynch Yos, or to want to lynch Yos in that situation. The only other player voting outside of the pool of uninvestigated was Simenon, who was scum.

It's plain that he felt no lynching was a bad option from his last post of the day, as well as from listing it as the worst option in his post 4 days earlier. So his other options are trying to convince someone to move to Yos or voting one of RB/Simenon. He has explained not moving his vote to RB because he didn't want to hand the game to Yos. What about Simenon? 5 days before deadline he felt that Simenon was a good lynch option, but he changed his mind, to the point of having lynch RB as a better option than lynching Simenon, although he had been arguing for RB = town for most of the game. There was a 66% chance (from his point of view) that one of either Simenon or RB was the goon. Lynching one of them would give a much higher chance of hitting scum than no lynching and hoping for some cross kills. MBLtown would have had every incentive to vote for one or the other of them. If he was confident that RB was town, then the chance of Simenon being the goon would have to go way up. Not lynching there is totally anti-town, and MBL had the last chance, 10 minutes before deadling, to make sure that a no lynch didn't happen, with a relatively high percentage possibility of hitting the goon and an even higher percentage chance of hitting scum of one flavor or another. He didn't take it. Why? If he wasn't going to move his vote then why post right before deadline in the first place?

So, inconsistencies from MBL at the end of day.

Posted implying that town really needed a correct lynch and that someone should change their vote.

Didn't change his vote to RB.

Didn't change his vote to Simenon.

Allowed the no lynch to happen, which he just implied would be bad play for town.

Yos, Thok, how does this make sense for MBLtown? To say that the town really needs a lynch, and in the same breath allow a no lynch to happen, when the percentages of nailing scum with either moving his vote to RB or Simenon where fairly high, and one of those players he claims he would have been happy lynching just 5 days earlier?

From MBLscum point of view: he decided he didn't want to bus RB. Very hard to see how MBLGF lives through the game after busing RB. The SK has a NK where he is going to be gunning for the GF, and MBL is probably the best or one of the best GF targets for the SK to make. Too high risk of the game ending for him by voting for RB. He

could

have moved his vote to Simenon. More on this momentarily. Last option: convince someone to vote for Yos.

The only player in the game at the time who would have moved his vote to Yos was RB. Simenon was already voting Yos, BT was firmly on Simenon, CTD was voting MBL and not around anyway, and Fonz was obviously sticking to RB. The only person who posted anywhere near the deadline and said he would try to check on the thread was RB. In that context MBL's last post before deadline could be a last ditch effort to get RB to move his vote to Yos. Unlikely, considering it was only a few minutes before deadline, but that holds for MBLGF as well as MBLtown, so it's a moot point. I think it makes more sense that his final post that day was an attempt to signal RB. He'd already decided that he wasn't moving his vote, so why bother with the post if he was town? Either RB move's his vote to Yos and Yos is lynched, or someone moves their vote to either RB or Simenon and they are lynched, which MBL could have done anyway, at least getting to decide himself which of RB or Sim was the most likely scum instead of relying on someone else. This is probably the weakest part of my argument, because his post came so close to deadline that it was very unlikely RB or anyone else would read it and respond before the deadline happening, but it makes more sense to me as trying to get RBgoon to move his vote to Yos than anything else. It doesn't make any sense at all as MBLtown.

So, why not lynch Simenon? And why kill him after not lynching him? I'll agree with Yos and Thok that this seems unlikely for the GF to do, but I think MBL had to make a hard decision with regards to lynching Sim here.

First, if Simenon was not the SK.

MBL and RB go into the night with a kill option. MBL probably decides to take out Yos. RB being such a high candidate for goon is probably NK'd by the SK. That leaves 4 players in the game with MBL-GF. This seems to be a pretty good option. Depending on if he correctly took out the SK or not in the night he only has to get one mislynch; probably the best he could hope for. If he missed the SK then there are 4 players left with two opposing scum and shenanigans ensues, but at least the outcome of the game is more in his hands (he'd only have himself to blame if he missed the SK in the night).

Second, if Simenon is the SK.

Major problems here. MBL and RB go into the night with a huge decision on their hands. There are basically 2 night kill options: 1.) Yos/Fonz/CTD or 2.) BT.

Killing Yos/Fonz/CTD leaves MBL and RB in a bind. Although it is LyLo, everyone knows that one of BT, RB, or MBL is the goon. In order for MBL to win he or RB has to convince one of Yos/Fonz/CTD (whichever of the two remaining alive) to vote for BT. Maybe I'm being prideful, but I don't see that happening, and I think MBL could have come to that conclusion as well. If they killed CTD then both Yos and Fonz would be gunning for RB, based on their day 5 play. Leaving CTD alive leaves the one guy voting for him the day before alive. Further complicating matters would be that they would have to argue for BT=goon and would thus need to point out a likely GF for me. It wouldn't really work to point out one of themselves as my GF, so they would have to argue for one of the two players that they needed a vote-BT from as being my GF. The most likely scenario is that RB is lynched, leaving MBL alive the next day defending his position with respect to RB. This probably ends in a town win. MBL's second option in this scenario is to go for a straight RB bus, but defending that new position from his previous position in the game will be extremely difficult. Again, more than likely ends in a town win.

Killing BT: MBL can argue that he isn't the goon, and thus immediately vote RB. He doesn't have to deal with explaining why he changed his mind about RB as in the previous scenario. The down-side is that RB either suicides or rebuts MBL and votes MBL on the same reasoning. Further, they would have to deal with why in the world would the goon allow for one of the uninvestigated to be the NK, seeing as that pretty much pinpoints him as scum. Even worse, there is a possibility that MBL gets lynched for being the goon instead of RB, and the game is immediately over. Most likely case is that RB is lynched then MBL has to answer as to why BT was the night kill; the only thing that could really work in that situation is MBL was looking for an excuse to bus RB without having to figure out a way to bus RB convincingly as he would have to in the above scenario. Again, town probably wins here.

So, lynching SimenonSK is a totally bad idea for MBL. His play with respect to RB would have to be exquisite to convince the rest of the town that he had a real change of heart about RB being scum, something that probably couldn't be accomplished given how much he had defended RB throughout the game.

Then why kill him? Going into the night phase with no lynch is something MBL obviously didn't want. He wanted Yos lynched the day before, and he wanted to make his kill in the night. If RB had moved his vote to Yos before day's end then there was a chance that mafia could win in the night phase. If Yos was lynched town, then it's possible that the SK would kill town and mafia would win. More likely the SK would kill RB and effectively the same scenario would happen as lynching Simtown. Either MBL would kill the SK or their would be 4 players alive with both GF and SK still in the game and more shenanigans would ensue. Again though, MBL could only blame himself for missing the SK - the game is more in his hands and he would only need one mislynch to win. If Yos was the SK, then the big difference between YosSK and SimSK is that Simenon, an univestigated who was extremely scummy, is still in the game. MBL and RB kill the Fonz and go into LyLO with BT, Sim, and CTD as townies. Both players intent on voting RB are out of the game and the extremely scummy Simenon is sitting around waiting for one vote on him. A much easier win for mafia here than in the case where SimSK is lynched.

However, that didn't happen, and MBL/RB would have had to deal with the situation. They would have been pretty sure that RB was going to be NKed, leaving the need for two mislynches (or 1 SK lynch plus 1 mislynch) for MBL to win the game. I don't know what's best in this situation. The gutsy play is to leave the player they thought most likely to be the SK alive, cutting down on the work that MBL would have to do to get his lynches. The downside is if town didn't follow along and a townie was lynched or MBL was wrong in the player he attacked as the SK, the SK would have one more NK to go after MBL. The upside is he doesn't have to convince town that a townie is the GF two lynches in a row. The other option is to go after the SK and deal with having to convince the town that two other players are the GF for two consecutive days. Couple that with him not having any sure way of knowing exactly who the SK was, and the night kill really becomes a crap shoot. In that case, it was probably best to go with the kill that would point away from him being the GF the most. Kill Yos, maybe hit the SK, but have people point out that MBL was the guy gunning for Yos all the day before. He'd have to survive that for 2 days. Kill Simenon, and have the argument that if he really wanted to kill Simenon he could have lynched him the day before, plus he gets to point fingers at BT for the Simenon kill (which he did immediately at the beginning of the day). If Sim flips town he gets to keep up his attack on Yos and perhaps get a SK lynch there, and he gets to push for a BT=GF (or other town=GF) lynch the last day. If Sim=SK, then he has to figure a way to get two town mislynches in a row... obviously not ideal, but it's the situation that he gets left in for RB not moving his vote to Yos at the end of the day and he has to deal with it.

Summation: there are inconsistencies with MBL's play at the end of day yesterday. There is no reasonable town explanation, other than the lackluster "I wasn't paying attention and didn't think things through" defense. However, all of them can be explained for MBL=GF. By far his best option going into night was to lynch Yos, a lynch that he could have secured if his scum-partner had moved to follow him. Goes a long way in explaining why his Yos attack was so weak; he simply was expecting his goon to move his vote at some point before the deadline and didn't think he needed to put a lot of effort into convincing RB to make that move. He couldn't vote RB because he would open himself up to a SK NK that would end his game, not to mention he'd have to defend moving his vote after calling RB town all game long. Lynching Sim was too risky - if Sim flipped SK then he would have to deal with RB as outlined above, and all those scenarios are incredibly hard for MBL to win. If in his analysis just before deadline he came to the conclusion that there was a decent chance that Sim was the SK then he basically couldn't vote to lynch him. Explains why after doing his Simenon and predecessors analysis at the end of the day he no longer had lynching Simenon as an option. Killing Sim in the night is probably about the best play for him - high chance of killing the SK, gets to distance himself away from the kill, and knowing RB is probably going to be the SK NK he no longer has to deal with the possibility of having to bus RB. Much, much easier for MBL to say "I guess I was wrong about RB" after RB flips scum than to explain why he had a change of heart about RB after defending him basically the whole game long while RB is still alive. I think all of this is a more than reasonable explanation for MBL's actions and the night kill choice, whereas there is no solid reason for him to behave as he did as town.

Further evidence from the beginning of today. For a player who constantly defended RB all game long he showed no surprise that RB flipped goon. In fact, just the opposite is true. MBL's first posts of the day:

Oh hell yes. Lucky ducky indeed... now which one of you is the Godfather?

Still Alive: (5/20)

2. MrBuddyLee (MBL)
5. The Central Scrutinizer (TCS) 5. The Fonz
6. Coron 6. inHimshallIbe 6. AlyG 6.CrashTextDummie
15. Billy Twilight
18. Nik Zero 18. Yosarian2

Dead: Jack/White/Toaster Strudel/Simenon SK
Dead: Yogurt Bandit/Rogueben Mafia goon

Time to think about these nightkills. I'm amazed that the SK didn't shoot for a more likely Godfather target.

Oh, also, it's an honor to be in the company of such an outstanding final five. It's not often that games come down to a situation like this.

Two chances to nail one mafia. We should be able to do this.

Saying that he was "amazed that the SK didn't shoot for a more likely Godfather target" implies that RB was a likely goon target, which goes completely against his thinking from the day before. I think that MBLtown would have taken RB flipping goon as a personal insult, and at least some of that would have come through in his first posts. The opposite seems to be true. He never expresses any surprise that RB flipped goon. Better explanation is that he was pissed off about the situation he was in because RB screwed up at the end of the previous day, and didn't want that to come through in his first posts, so he tried to make himself seem extremely happy with the night kills, and in the process forgot that he should have been surprised that RB was scum.

[BillyTwilight]

EBWOP: As an addendum, I should also note that for MBL's play at the end of yesterday to be legitimate, he would have had to believe that BT=goon, Yos=GF/SK, and one of Fonz or CTD the remaining scum. I don't believe that his posts back that up. His post #s 2952 and 2953 indicate that he had a town reading on Fonz and CTD. In fact, most of his posts before deadline seem to indicate that he finds Yos, BT, and Simenon to be the scummiest players in the game. Again, it doesn't jive with his unwillingness to move his vote at the end of the day. If you buy that he really felt RB was town and was unwilling to vote him to hand the game over to Yos, he should have been more than willing to vote Simenon, unless he felt that his read on Fonz and CTD was completely wrong and he really thought Simenon was also town. For someone as vague as he was in his suspicions of the remaining players, it doesn't make any sense for him to be unwilling to move his vote to one of either RB or Sim. Makes a lot more sense if he was paranoid that lynching either one would make a win for him almost impossible.

[BillyTwilight]

I thought Simenon was the best lynch at the time, and I thought that MBL or Yos, or maybe even CTD would vote Simenon before the day was out. Fonz didn't seem interested in pursuing a Simenon lynch, so I didn't think I could persuade him. Still, I thought I had made a really good case for Simenon=scum. Note my post #2962 and the response I had to Fonz. Also note in post #2969 that I specifically asked MBL and Yos to comment on Simenon and my case against him, and that I prodded MBL more with respect to the Simenon vote in post #2981, as well as ranked lynching Simenon as my most preferred outcome to the day. Also by my last post Yos hadn't responded on the Simenon issue, so I thought there was still a good chance that we would lynch Simenon.

I could tell you that I intended to move my vote back to RB at some point before the deadline if it became apparent that no one would vote Simenon, but that wouldn't mean much. I will note that I was inactive on the board from that post until Feb. 1, and not active in any game from that post till Feb. 6th. I don't remember why, probably something work related.

[BillyTwilight]

Desperate much, MBL?

Let's break down your arguments into 2 main points.

1.) I "waffled" on YB.

2.) I stated that I might ask for a replacement at one point in the game.


I'll start with the second. I actually stated that I might ask for a replacement in this game twice, both for basically the same reasons. Post #647 was the first. It was only my 6th post in the game and I was feeling the crush at work and didn't think I'd be able to keep up with a game that was progressing that fast. The reason I point it out here was this was BEFORE all of the instances that MBL has pointed out as reasons I would want to be replaced - none of my "scumpartners" had been killed yet and I hadn't started my massive "bus" of YB. It goes to show that I get frustrated when games proceed at a pace I can't keep up with, largely due to my style, which is analytical and in depth reading of posts, something you should be able to attest to by now. The second, and the one that MBL is basing his vote on, was August 29th. I hadn't posted in the game for over 2 weeks, and simply didn't have the desire or energy at the time to keep up with the game. I'd also note my post #984 where I tell BM that he should ask for a replacement if he wasn't going to be able to keep up with the game. I don't think it's fair to anyone in the game to not post or keep up with the game, and when I found myself doing it I considered asking for a replacement - twice, with the previous one being at a point in the game where I wouldn't have been as despondent as MBL believes the cause for the second one was.

Back to your first point, MBL. Please differentiate me-scum backtracking on YB because I couldn't afford to maintain a bus on my last scumpartner and me-town reconsidering YB's alignment in light of knowing that two scum had been on his wagon? The context your completely leaving out here amazes me. I "waffled" on YB when Sarc came up scum. At the time there were 13 players, besides myself, left in the game, with no cop claims, a shaky doctor claim, and no one confirmed or otherwise investigated. So you really think that there is no way as town I would look at YB, 1 out of 13 players left, note that at least 2 scum had been voting for him, and reconsider his role? Now note that when I "jumped" back on him he was one of THREE other players that could have been the goon, from my standpoint - MBL, White, and RB. You find it inconceivable that I would wonder if I was wrong about him knowing scum were on his wagon, then strongly reconsider him when the random odds of him being the goon jumped from 1/13 to 1/3? That's one of the most ridiculous arguments I have ever heard. Tell me, MBL, would you have found me more townish to maintain an attack on YB when there were two known scum who were voting him? I'd LOVE to hear you differentiate between town play and scum play from what happened here in this game.

Furthermore, if your going to be basing a vote on someone for flip-flopping on YB and wanting to quit the game, you should be voting Thok. If you think I'm scummy because of my play, then InHim's play must be sending Lunar rockets up in your head. Not only did he inexplicably change his vote to YB at the end of day 2, he offered a congratulatory post to the town at the beginning of day 3 after Sarc was lynched and then completely dropped out of the game. This goes to show that your logic is all wrong. You need to survive today; you can't worry about tomorrow without getting through today. Your only hope of getting a lynch today is to get me lynched - Thok has basically said he finds Fonz to be more townish now, and Yos is only really considering Fonz or myself. I think it's hilarious that you spent so much time attacking Fonz the last several pages, and you were obviously wanting to vote him (when I first glanced at your joke vote for him I was totally unsurprised, until I realized you were joking), and when Thok posts saying he doesn't find Fonz so scummy anymore and is most suspicious of me, your response is to immediately backtrack on your Fonz attack and go back at me. By the way, congratulations on post #3198, which might be the biggest suck-up post I have ever seen.

Oh, and I LOL for real when I read this:

I expect more counterattack than rebuttal from Twilight.

Considering you started this whole attack with:

Billy, it's rare that my eyes glaze over when playing mafia. I enjoy reading people's arguments. I enjoy scanning people's play to see if they mean what they say or if they're stretching credulity. I'll do my best to address your latest posts and dismiss the suspicion. I can't help but be irritated, because I'm not scum and the arguments are getting repetitive, but I'll see if there's any novel defense I can add.

And then your proceeded to address not one of the issues I had just raised, and instead counterattacked. Way to go Pot.

[BillyTwilight]

I'll be gone till Monday. Goin fishin'. I'll address (again) MBL's attack when I get back. Till then, I'd like for MBL to explain again why he didn't consider Fonzy or CTD to be scum at the end of yesterday, found Simenon to be scummy enough to feel good about lynching 5 days before deadline, and yet didn't move his vote to either Simenon or RB before deadline while at the same time saying that we really needed a lynch.

[BillyTwilight]

This is getting ridiculous. Now I'm most likely to be the GF because I am an original player? MBL, I've countered every one of your points against me, and you've done nothing to address my rebuttal, other than to say that I'm "tapdancing". You've completely ignored all the points of my play that show I'm town, and instead of actually trying to defend yourself against accusation, you just throw whatever you think might save your bacon out against me.

Seriously, the way this day has gone should be a flaming arrow in the sky pointing you out as scum. You pick up quick votes at the beginning of the day, and you try to appease those voting for you. You attack me because I'm the only one you think you can get a case on, and when that falls apart and Yos starts looking at Fonzy, you go after Fonz for multiple pages, completely ignoring your "case" against me. Your only hope of survival at this point is to appease Yos and Thok, and when Thok no longer finds Fonz really scummy and suggests that he might hammer you you turn full attention back to the only other player you might be able to persuade Thok to vote. Your moment of clarity is based on me stating that I might ask to be replaced, and suddenly all the rest of my play makes sense as the GF, that "Twilight is scum, for god's sake"? Plus you ignore that I said the exact same thing much earlier in the game when it doesn't fit the pattern your trying to pawn off on my play now.

MBL is squirming, isn't even bothering to try and defend himself anymore, and resorted to yelling TWILIGHT SCUM TWILIGHT SCUM as his only means of escape.

Anybody else think it odd that at one point or another

every

single mafia goon who posted substantially in the game said they found MBL scummy and not one of them genuinely attempted to convince other players to vote for him? Rougeben went so far as to call him his #1 SK suspect and then ask Glork to stop hyperfocusing on MBL in the same post! I suppose that you could interpret MoS' play as trying to convince others to go after MBL, but I would mostly disagree. He never tried to lay out any other case against MBL than the one he originally brought which MBL deflected for the most part without effort, and all of his subsequent posts against MBL were more in context of keeping up with his initial "suspicions". HackerHuck put it best:

Vote on YB (apparently) was because YB became scummier, not because MBL became less scummy. After that vote, MoS became quite focused on YB and barely mentioned MBL. Then when MBL poses his bizarre question to Guardian, YB, and Albert, his first response is to say that he doesn't like YB's response to the question (bottom of page 33). Then on the next page, his answers seem to flip-flop a bit like he can't quite remember if he's still supposed to think MBL is scum or not.

[BillyTwilight]

First of all, I have commented in the past about the things you've done that seem pro-townish. Example:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 160#947160

But there's always been something not right about you this game, and your sheer post volume is not going to pull you through in the face of the following primary evidence points against you. Most-compelling first:

1. Billy changed his mind about YB (after hammering YB brutally all game) once YB was the last remaining goon

Rebutted

2. Billy wanted to quit this game only just two weeks after he asked not to be replaced. That two week interim happened to be very bad for scum. Billy later claimed inHim was scum for "wanting to quit in a tough situation," when the evidence actually shows that Billy was the one who wanted to quit.

I don't read MD, GD, or the Vacation threads on this forum. I only check the actual games I'm in or the queues when I'm getting into a new game. I had no idea that InHim left the site. Furthermore, comparing posting a congratulatory post (1950) and vanishing from the game shortly thereafter with thinking about asking for a replacement is a gross error. Look at Mini 577 for an example of me asking for a replacement when I felt the game was boring and going faster than I wanted to bother keeping up with. I was the GF, under no suspicion, and had multiple players that could have been easy mislynch targets ready to take advantage of, if I wanted. Games that are boring or I don't have time to devote to (whither because I find other games I am more interested in because the pace is faster than I can keep up with due to work-load) I ask for replacement in. I thought about it twice in this game. You've yet to show how I could be genuinely bored or unable to keep up with the game in the first instance, but not in the second.

3. Billy's bitterness about the Sarc lynch. No joy at two scum dead in two nights, instead resentful that his wrong scumpartner got killed--the one he wasn't busing.

I was merely being truthful. I don't like lurker hunts. That's effectively what happened to Sarc. I was frustrated that a.) I was once again unable to convince everyone I was right about YB, and b.) Sarc flipping scum made me think that I was wrong about YB. Double-insult to me and I was frustrated.

4. Billy was voting Simenon, did not move to RB to get a lynch even though he said he'd support an RB lynch.

I went so far as to attempt to hammer RB earlier in the day. What happened to change my mind that I could be ready to "bus" RB earlier in the day but unwilling to move my vote back to him at the end of the day, knowing full well that I'd get suspicion thrown my way because of it?

5. Billy avoided this game, pretending to be away during the Sarc lynch, and then complained about the Sarc lynch the next day even though he had been afraid to be seen steering it.

Don't even understand this. Why would I have pretended to be away during a Sarc lynch? I got back from vacation on the 19th, lynch was the 22nd, and I didn't look at the thread in the interval. If I was the GF don't you think I would have been terrified of losing my only other "good" scumpartner and poured forth more effort into getting YB lynched instead? Considering the two were neck-n-neck, I would have at least tried to force a successful lynch of the worse scumpartner here.

6. Yogurt to Billy: "You and your scumbuddies are latched onto me" (vote count is Yogurt 3 (Billy, MoS, Sarc)

7. Yogurt: "It seems most pepole are following him(BT) in voting me... Could All 4 Scum be on my wagon?" (When MoS, Sarc and Billy are all on YB)

Rebutted

8. Billy suspected Simenon, Simenon died as SK.

WIFOM and completely pointless.

9. Yogurt to Billy: "I think you are the scum leader/GF"

10. Yogurt to MoS: "Well, I think You are scum in a way or Connected with Twilight somehow."

11. Yogurt: "Everyone is following BT, Which could lead to them being scum."

Rebutted

12. Billy's scumhunting was mediocre, "catching" only the SK and the weakest scum player, never poking at MoS or Sarc.

Correct. How has yours been better, MBL? Apparently you lost count of how many scum there were in the game at the end of the day yesterday. You could have voted to kill 1 of two scum and failed at both. Your only "poke" at MoS was a half thought out post at the end of day 1 (coupled with an equally half thought out post about Jack at the same time, one you completely forgot about the following day) and a vote for Sarc basically for lurking after not mentioning him at all before hand. Oh, and the latter happened after Glork had already linked the two of you together.

13. Both Billy and I "distanced" ourselves from the SK kill of Kinetic, but RB found me suspect for it and not Twilight.

And RB never attempted to get you lynched. Even when CTD was voting you and he could have moved his vote to you and tried to convince one of us to vote for you he didn't. And he protected you when Glork was going after you when RB had you as his #1 SK suspect.

14. One month after finding RB more innocent Billy is making cases for CTD as GF based primarily on his interactions with RB, who Billy suddenly thinks is scum again.

Rebutted, but for the fun of it: YB was one of many players that could have been scum at the point I found him more innocent. He was one of 3 at the point were my suspicion of him started again. Do you think I had more reason to find you or Simenon's predecessors to be the goon than RB at that point?

---

Okay, after once again pointing out the weakness of your case for why I'm scum, let's look at why I'm town.

1.) From my second post I expressed suspicion of YB (a little early for a bus, huh). I attacked and focused on YB almost all of day 1.

2.) When Albert was looking ripe for a mislynch, I could have simply kept my mouth shut and let it happen instead of trying to force a YB lynch. Even if I

was

bussing YB I should have let the mislynch happen, if I were scum.

3.) I voted YB again first thing day 2, and pushed for his lynch again in day 2. Bad play considering I would have already lost one of my scumpartners in the night phase.

4.) After having a missed night kill of Glork, I suicidally attacked Glork hard core for the following 2 days, knowing that the doc would claim a Glork protection and said attack would basically get me nowhere, and might possibly get me lynched.

5.) I built a heavy case on Kinetic (that you agreed with) and if I wasn't able to force a mislynch on him that day, at least my vote would have been in a logical place for a townie, and I could have held that case in my pocket for using to push a mislynch later down the line if I needed it. Instead I completely cleared him from being scum and made it that much harder on myself later in the game - especially considering he was in the uninvestigated pool at the time, which both RB and myself were in. I was basically making it that much easier for the SK or town to pinpoint RB as the goon, and maybe get myself lynched or NKed on suspicion of being the goon in the process.

6.) When TCS started his gambit I could have kept my mouth shut as suspicion from the other players mounted against him. He might have been lynched, keeping the pool of uninvestigated at maximum capacity and keeping the chance of RB or myself being NKed or lynched for being the goon at as small a percentage chance as possible.

7.) I wouldn't have killed Glork. I would have done the calculation that between SK NKs and lynches there was a high probability that RB was going to die before endgame, and that I might be killed in the search for the goon. I would have left him alive to keep hammering at MBL and other players (he was convinced I was town). The worst that could have happened would be a guilty investigation from him on RB, but I would have felt RB doomed to die at some point in the game anyway - and it would have vindicated my attack against YB earlier in the game and made me look more town. I could also have been investigated at some point and not had to worry so much about being mistakenly killed in a goon-hunt.

8.) I would have made sure to move my vote back to RB before deadline yesterday. I would have known that not lynching RB when I had been pushing for his lynch almost all game would bring me suspicion I didn't want later. Furthermore, I would have gambled that the SK wouldn't kill me in the night phase. He would have had to judge me, the guy attacking RB all game and who hammered him as a more likely GF than at least one other player who had been protecting RB all game long. I would have had a shot to kill the SK and go into the next day at LyLo, needing only one mislynch instead of two to win the game, and knowing the town would have a hard time lynching me after hammering RB.

9.) I could have

easily

lynched MBL earlier today. Knowing that I had to have two mislynches to win I would have seen Yos and Fonz vote, built a minor case against MBL from his end of day play, and hammered him before he had a chance to defend himself or bring a counterattack against me. If I was extremely worried about it I could have killed CTD, leaving the three players who voted for MBL alive and forcing both Yos and Fonz to vote me on arguments that could basically be thrown right back at them.

10.) I could have let my feeling that TCS/Fonz is town from his gambit earlier slide, at least giving me some wiggle room to vote Fonz if someone came up with something particularly damning against him.

Basically to believe I'm the GF you have to believe that at multiple critical moments in the game I did things that would make it harder for me to win as the GF. MBL is desperate to get into the next day. His only chance of doing so is getting me lynched. Putting his vote anywhere else might be enough to push Yos or Thok into voting for him, so his holding onto the last straw he has. It's transparent and weak. Lynch him please.

[BillyTwilight]

Nice job guys.

I have TONS to say about this game. It's been a great learning experience, and extremely frustrating at the same time. Grat's to MBL, he pretty much nailed me, although I really thought his case was weak enough to allow me to sneak through into LyLO. I'll post a lot of my thoughts later.

First time I've ever been lynched on mafiascum... damn.

[BillyTwilight]

OK, a couple more comments while I'm a little more under control.

One thing worth taking from this game is the observation that stupid doesn't necessarily equal scum, while controlled reasonable arguments don't necessarily equal town. (See Guardian and MBL for examples of the first situation, while Jack and BT are obviously examples of the second situation.)

This makes me very sad...

[BillyTwilight]

All right, I might as well get this over with.

The decision to bus YB came because of an early game interaction with AE. When MoS replaced in he had me listed as likely town in his initial post, and AE asked him to explain what I had done to make him feel that way. YB of course answered for him. At that point I decided that YB had to die. I never thought at the time that the game would go on as long as it did, and I expected people to go back and catch that and draw a nice little triangle around the three of us. Had I realized the game would go on as long as it did, I probably would have let that slide. As it was, I decided that YB had to go, and I'd look better pushing it from the start than jumping in late. I also felt that YB would eventually be lynched anyway, so better to make myself look as town as possible right? Well, YB didn't take very kindly to all of his scumbuddies voting him, and he basically outed us. I could have crawled through the screen and throttled him when he called me the GF in thread. My only hope was that when he was lynched at the end of day 1 everyone would take it as OMGUSing... well we saw how that went. I truly was pissed when he lived.

Then MoS decided go off on a wildcard and play his strange post #1136. I wasn't sure what he was doing, but if I had to guess I'd say this is the reason that Jack took him out (and not MBL's post against him; I highly doubt Jack gave a lot of credence to that). It was a big red flag that MoS was sporting some kind of role, and well worth a Night 1 shot.

So I missed bussing a partner I needed to get rid of and lost another partner in the night phase. Then I went on several vacations/conference trips in the summer during day 2 and come back to find that Sarc is on the verge of getting lynched. I didn't know what to do, so I just hoped that someone would chose YB over Sarc. Didn't happen, and I was left with 2 buddies down by the start of day 3 and a third buddy who I had been trying to get you guys to lynch all game long. Ouch.

MBL, I sent in the Glork kill because I basically was pissed and didn't really know what to do. At the time I was very suspicious of Guardian's doc claim, and I hoped that Guardian wasn't a doc and that any real doc in the game would choose to protect Guardian instead of Glork. I was right on the first count and wrong on the second. Boo. So start of day three, I had lost half my scumteam and just missed a nightkill, and the guy I was playing with was starting to drop off the map plus I'd been bussing him all game. MBL was exactly right, I just felt depressed and didn't really want in the game anymore, and posted saying I might ask for a replacement. Funny how 1 line out of thousands in a huge game like this can come back to haunt you. I think if that post hadn't been there MBL would have been much less convicted about me being the GF in endgame, and that lack of conviction might have swayed Thok toward voting MBL instead. Damn, it's painful.

As I said, I was pretty bummed, so I decided I'd try to go out in a flash of glory by attacking Glork and just having fun with it. I got lucky in Guardian's undoing and even more lucky in outing Glork, because I felt like I came out looking pretty townish in that argument. Certainly Glork wasn't honed in at that point.

The rest of the game was pretty straight-forward. I made some major mistakes coming down the stretch. I should have left Glork alive... RB was effectively doomed between lynches and SK kills; I should have left him alive to reek havoc with MBL. I could have killed him later if he became suspicious of me, and at the time he was pretty convinced I was town. I made a terrible blunder in not lynching RB. I was more than willing to do so, but I thought for sure someone would vote for Simenon. I was stunned when it didn't happen. I was even more sure that if he needed to RB would move his vote to Yos to end the day instead of allowing a no lynch. I was quite upset at that, but he was following my lead. I simply couldn't move my vote to Yos after stating multiple times that I wasn't going to vote outside the pool of uninvestigated. I REALLY wish RB had moved his vote then. I wouldn't have looked as bad for the Simenon nk and getting one mislynch would have been much easier.

Not lynching MBL when I had the chance was just plain dumb. I was so worried about setting myself up for the final day that I didn't allow myself to even get into it. I could have left myself, Yos, and Fonz alive and at least had a chance in LyLO. That was probably the single most stupid thing I've ever done in mafia. MBL was desperate at that point, and that desperation is what drove him to actually figure out what was going on. Dumb, dumb, dumb.

Well, I'm going to cry myself to sleep now. I have a lot more to say about the game, but it will have to wait till later. Any thoughts?

[BillyTwilight]

Billy: Eh, it wasn't stupid, hesitating to hammer MBL there really did make you look more town, just like you thought it would. It didn't turn out the way you wanted, but I'm not sure that means it was a mistake on your part.

Anyway, partway through the last day, I just suddenly, all at once, realized I had been wrong and MBL was actually town. I can't really explain how I came to that conclusion, and I know it frustrated the heck out of Fonz, but...well, I just knew, heh.

You think it frustrated FONZ.....!!!!

[BillyTwilight]

Jesus christ you guys take a long time to finish a game.

I was planning on killing YB the next night. After that it was either yos or BT because I planned on going after the others in thread. I wonder if I would have made it. Probably would have gone crazy and confessed what with the length of these later days.

Good to see you Jack! You back on site or just commenting on the endgame?