Mafia 90-Lolwat? Mafia, Game Over, Mafia Win

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Confirm

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gentlemen

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vote: Litral

the b word

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Hey, sorry, I've been following and have found myself without much to say (first big game as well), going to read through again soon and try to get some analysis out there.

##unvote

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... please, this is the second time in this game someone has depicted me as some sort of jester.

Reading over Litral's game, this and the other jester drops are probably what caught my eye as the biggest scum tell, as they were completely out of left field. As far as the case against him goes though, gnkoichi's take on it seems fishy. It seems like it's mostly based on his vote on numberfourteen? In that case I think it's being taken to a somewhat unfair extreme, as like, the initial contradiction was imo adequately explained by Litral but it seems like it's being exploited for a relatively easy lynch. I'm not seeing a huge contradiction in his play, it looks like he's stuck to his guns as far as his vote goes. I don't like gnkoichi's latest posts because it looks like he's covering his ass in advance for lynching a townie.

Rofl I'm iffy on, he's contributing and strikes me as a proactive townie, except for that he keeps asserting he's a townie, which always makes me vomit just a little bit.

I like lowell's play so far, and I think claiming mason so early was a protown move if he's pretty sure it's a mixed group.

My favorite lynch candidate at this point would probably be gnkoichi.

If you're not scum, you're a distraction of the highest order, and the town will be better off without you either way.

this sentence is a

huge, glaring scumtell

Yeah you're right but I can vouch for Koichi's relative trustworthiness.

This reads like a brushoff to me, which worries me, and I guess a lot of the reason I'm so skeptical of koichi's case is that I've seen scum employ the "guys even if he's a townie he's not helping so let's lynch him" tactic with great success. I'm not ready to rule out that I'm missing something due to being unfamiliar with koichi's play, so this is tentative at best.

vote: gnkoichi

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p.s. I've been very busy these last couple weeks, but I should be able to keep up with this game from here on out

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Do you think that the scum doesn't already know? I think the town should know what the scum already knows. Level playing field.

Sure, if the scum already know. Vino was fishing so hard, though, I'm guessing that at least his scum group dosn't know who the masons are.

What confuses me is that the initial push against Vino was based on him having some information re: scum/mason overlap that the town did not, but he is obviously not a mason. It also confuses me that Yos apparently backpedaled on his ultimatum re: penguins despite penguins having gone on to out the whole group. Which imo increases the likelihood yosarian is scum and that roflcopter scared him.

Back to the subject of the push against Vino based on him having information town did not. Vino got wailed on from all sides for what reads to me as ignorance of game mechanics, which lead to him basing his posts on lowell's assumption that there was at least one scum in the mason group. This was an assumption that was relatively well received, and given that I don't get how his posts are more scummy than they are kind of dumb.

I believe the mason claim at #215 for now, and I also don't believe that everybody in the mason group Lowell speaks of is likely to be town given its claimed size.

Agreed. Lowell made the right decision.

It's certain that at least one is scum. Minimum of one. Maybe even two.

In this post penguins claims he is certain that at least one mason is scum. Yosarian is apparently no longer concerned with people who seem to know something the town doesn't, his original case against Vino, which has now morphed into "his scum group doesn't know who the masons are". So I'm reading this as a combination of, lynching Vino looked easy, and roflcopter scared him off of voting for penguins despite penguins fulfilling all of the criteria yosarian has said to be scummy.

I've been trying and trying to rewrite that in a way that is not so convoluted, so for the sake of brevity: I think yosarian not even commenting on penguins outing the rest of the masons is a huge backpedal, which to me says there was truth to what roflcopter called him on.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... &start=258
^^ Very protown post

unvote

vote: yosarian2

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What confuses me is that the initial push against Vino was based on him having some information re: scum/mason overlap that the town did not, but he is obviously not a mason.

You know who else would have info? A scum who's buddy was a mason.

But you voted him for fishing for masons, this is why I read it as hopping on the e-z lynch more than legitimate scumhunting. The whole time your case had one foot in "vino knows something" and another foot in "vino's fishing" until the votes rolled.

I've been trying and trying to rewrite that in a way that is not so convoluted, so for the sake of brevity: I think yosarian not even commenting on penguins outing the rest of the masons is a huge backpedal, which to me says there was truth to what roflcopter called him on.

Clearly not reading the game, if you think I didn't comment on her outing another mason. And again, I don't know what makes you think that's the "whole group".

Well, you're the one who isn't reading the game then, which I guess helps your case. However:

One of the masons said it was a large group, so he was guessing that at least one of them must be scum. (Lowell? When he claimed? Can't be bothered to dig up the post.) Naturally all of this logic is reliant upon that, and since he is the resident expert I am taking it as the most likely scenario. Since he found it suitable to reveal his masonry, he must be relatively positive that there is a scum in their midst, so I find it reasonable to assume that he is correct.

Um...Lowell is the resident expert? Of what?

There is a difference between other people's posts, that have said that there's a pretty good chance there is a scum, and your posts, which seemed to imply you already knew there was a scum mason.

This was after penguins had posted that she was "certain" there was at least one scum mason, and posted number crunches based on that certainty. You didn't call this out as scummy, and I think it's because roflcopter scared you. So what convinced you penguins was so townie?

@Vino: I don't know how to link to specific posts, so I linked it so the page started with the quote I was referring to.

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vino, the mason thing is not the only reason you're getting lynched

Um, read the last couple pages and see if you still think that.

Enough people are on this bandwagon that I guess it can't be a complete scum push, but logically it's very unsound. I get a townie vibe from Vino and oppose this lynch. Especially considering he hasn't played in a game with masons before, I don't see how his reaction to the presence of a mason group is being regarded as the biggest scum tell so far.

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Copter is not acting anti-town at all. Where do you get this? He's expressing opinions, sticking his neck out, and moving things along. He doesn't hurt every game he's in, that's total and utter rubbish.

Yeah, right. Most of his recent contributions, as are yours, are OMGUS attacks. In addition, other games are irrelevant to this one as far as tells are concerned.

Um...what? Most of his posts have either been attacking me (not OMGUS) or attacking Vino (not OMGUS), or attacking Literl (not OMGUS). So, again...what?

The above is a reminder for Number14 who is still imagining that the only players I find scummy are for plain old OMGUS.

Those are the words of the SK himself, you know his opinion is objective.

To be fair I think he just doesn't want you to vote for him.

I am still completely onboard for a yosarian lynch, though strangercoug has been playing a weird game that I wouldn't mind lynching for. I also wouldn't mind lynching Knights of Cydonia as his play has been the definition of active lurking. I guess that is my scum list currently.

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Big

FOS:KoC

. Is likely to turn into a vote if he dosn't have a good reason for the "one hour" thing.

Yeah, I'd like to hear an explanation for this too. I also would like to hear your case against Penguins, KoC, as I don't think I've seen anything resembling a case from you this game.

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Honestly, KoC has little reason to defend himself.

Really? A request for an explanation and a request for a case is unreasonable?

KoC, I feel at least that a request for your particular reasoning on this case, especially when you haven't really been making any cases this game is not too much to ask. If you're so sure that PoS is scum that when her bandwagon hits a hurdle you want to die, you must have some reasoning to back that up.

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Maybe KoC has a posting limitation where if he gets five votes he can only post poetry.

I've actually kind of been wondering if KoC does have some weird role or PR, like maybe there was some legitimate reason he needed to hammer if someone got lynched, however I can't imagine a role with flavor involving that being pro town.

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I keep trying to catch up on this and it keeps getting a bunch of new pages, I'm working my way through this. Are we in an urgent state in any way currently or do I have time?

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I'm finally all caught up, I guess the prod helped motivate me. I'm going to start out with an

unvote

as it doesn't seem fair to let that sit on yos while I've been inactive. I'm going to need to read over the last few pages again soon before I'll be able to make a solid case of any sort.

BSG asked me a few questions, so:

(You asked why I was getting a town read from Vino early in the game)

He seemed to be semi clumsily trying to grasp how the mason mechanic could be used logically to town's advantage, people were jumping on him for wording and stuff, which people are always prone to do to Vino. I didn't find what he was doing scummy, so I felt the need to speak up as a bandwagon was gaining momentum on him and I felt that a lot of the attacks were pretty big stretches and his play had been consistent with what I had seen in the past.

Regarding your last post directed at me: I don't know what SSK posts are, so please elaborate? I accused KoC of active lurking because at the time I thought he fit the definition most, and his turnaround from completely noncontributory (guys noncontributive is not a word) posting to a sudden "oh man PotS is definitely scum" as soon as the bandwagon was picking up was very scummy to me. Really though at that point I think KoC was the most prominent active lurker, the rest were mostly either just lurking or just active. I'm not really ready to let him off the hook completely, as like, he emo-voted and started posting in prose, which has been explained by PR. Whether you buy the PR or not though, it doesn't change that when he could have still made an effort to convey meaning in verse, he instead just messed around with it. I'm going to need to read over this stuff again though.

Here's something that piqued my interest though. Vino, PotS, why were you so quick to dismiss koichi's gambit? It looked sound to me, as if we could separate the masons into groups who confirmed this mistake and wouldn't confirm this mistake, then we would definitely have something to go on. I don't understand why you would discourage it from the beginning.

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Honcho, I thought my reasons for balking at the GnKoichi gambit were made clear at the time. If you have more concerns, quote them and be more specific.

I'm not going to quote anything, as if you'll read my post you'll notice it was the principle of it I was asking about... But that's a fun cop out! I'll restate my question I guess. You were convinced that one other anti town mason was going to come out and confirm that GnKoichi's PM was the phony one, and that THE OTHER FOUR MASONS were anti-town liars. Is that what you were trying to prevent? Koichi's been kind of all over the place, but I for one thought this was a pro-town effort, as it really did consist of dividing the masons on at least one point (even if a weak one) which could lead to us clearing some of them, and probably puts GnK at risk but for pro town reasons.

So I am confused as to why you were so quick to dismiss it! You even threatened to lynch anybody who spoke up and lent a hand to young GnK, which makes me wonder why the idea of it scared you.

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Honcho, if it was a scum gambit, I didn't think his scum partner would take up the offer of outing the both of them. If it was a town gambit, I didn't think any scum would be dumb enough to take the bait. If there's two scum then the chances that both will take the bait is slim, and then the one who did would get lynched. If both happen to take it then both scum are reasonably confirmed to GnKoichi, and highly suspicious to everybody else. In the end, no matter how it swings, we end up lynching a mason, which we don't want to do.

This makes no sense. Am I missing something?

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Honcho, point something out for me to explain. I outlined every possible scenario of the gambit and why they were all unlikely. Koichi's gambit comes down to either the moderator making a silly mistake in (likely) only his PM, or him intentionally making up this mistake to try to catch some scum or frame some masons. Do you not follow the logic or do you think that it's faulty?

I think you just answered your own question. As koichi's saying, I can't see a townie reason for disarming this gambit. Whether koichi is scum or not, this was an opportunity to gain information. We're never going to be able to 'confirm' masons (correct me if I'm wrong here) without them dying, so any opportunity to gain information is welcome. What doesn't make sense to me about your refusal to see how this played out is that I can't see an outcome to the gambit that hurts the town in the long run. I'm interested in PotS' response on this same point, since she also opposed the gambit, though less vocally.

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Cops?

I'm assuming this is in response to the 'no way to clear masons'. Do masons not investigate as scum in this game? I thought that was how it always worked.

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If Gn is scum I think KoC is scum with him. Gn what has convinced you that theadmiral is such a townie now?

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Um, I don't have a vote on GnKoichi you nubs. GnKoichi could you answer my question?

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ugh, ignores a simple question, tries to follow suit on self vote success, and looks for an out in the next easiest lynch, who he just a second ago was declaring a townie. I'm sold.

vote: gnkoichi

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is the case against the admiral mostly for the litral half of his play or is there something more recent? It isn't my favorite lynch, but I'll switch in the case that it's necessary to avoid nolynch.

Koichi, I'm still curious, and I hope you'll humor me. What made you think admiral was town a few pages back?

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Yeah, I was wondering because I thought that was a fairly reasonable post, and I thought gnkoichi's reaction just looked kind of desperate.

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Does the deadline take effect at the end of the 18th or the beginning?

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The right play is to lynch someone else and then vig me tonight.

This actually seems to play right into the theory of you being a mafia hider. Instead of us lynching a relatively useless role, you want us to lynch a townie and then waste a vig shot that doesn't even confirm you. The actual right play would be for someone to investigate you. This post doesn't sit well with me at all.

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I'm here, my term's coming to an end soon but I'll try to be more active.

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scum mason is gnkoichi and cult recruiter mason is yosarian

Despite how WIFOM it is I think yosarian makes a good point about cult recruiter masons. I do think there's truth in the second half of this statement though. Look at the end of day one, especially the interaction between GnK and Litradmiral. They have this cautious little allegiance with each other going almost as soon as admiral starts posting. GnK is very convinced admiral is a townie, though even when asked directly won't give any reason. Then it becomes pretty clear that one of them is getting lynched, and they immediately start distancing themselves from each other.

RE: Vino's defense of the koichi/litral pair: Here is what I think happened. I think Litral started off playing very poorly, and GnK saw an opportunity to take advantage of it while not having to deal with Litral. Hence the attitude change when TheAdmiral comes into the picture. GnK and TheAdmiral initially each disregard the possibility of the other being the 'right' lynch for the day, since perhaps they can both live. It then starts to look like GnK's going to get lynched, and so he immediately changes his tune and puts a vote on TheAdmiral.

I think my timelines are accurate, but feel free to correct me if they're off, I didn't want to reread the whole thread.

For now though, a tentative

vote: GnKoichi

RE: Yosarian's "head hancho" push

I just have to say, your latest statements about me are simply incorrect. I get that you read my post history, but you didn't actually look for any context. My vote was actually the first on the initial "GN wagon", and I'm pretty sure the first on your "wagon". I also feel like my second vote on GN was pretty well justified, but if you take issue with something about it give me something specific and I'll see if I can further explain my thoughts.

finals over whoo

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Just out of curiosity, PotS, you were very active yesterday, and today you're kind of invisible. What's up?

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Haha, 75% sure, huh? Numbers and everything???

eh, what posts and reactions don't seem town? My only decent case yesterday was the one against you I think, is that what worries you? I get that we're coming from different places right now, but to me your argument looks like "honcho is third party scum because I said so"(though repeated a couple times as 'bad vibe' and the like), so the more specific you can be the better. I pointed that out last time I responded to your case, and you have grown less specific = - (.

I am actually a little more wary of you now, as you completely ignored my response to your case, which pointed out that at least your facts were incorrect. Yet still you are very 'certain' (75%!) when you explain your case as mostly 'bad vibe' and 'just don't seem town'. This strikes me as odd! Especially since you just recently told me that consistency was scummy. My "reactions" are really that powerful? Are you sure your case isn't completely arbitrary??? Ugh, show me some, as currently it seems like you're just looking for an out in me. Also, it's starting to seem kind of strange to me that the pillar of your defense isn't really a defense, but that third party scum probably wouldn't be a mason. I am obviously biased, but it looks like you're really, really reaching here.

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You're certanly not trying to do anything, you only show up and post when you're under attack.

Oh, I don't think that's fair, I just happen to be under attack.

And as far as trying to find the cult recruiter goes, I don't really agree with it on a game philosophy level. It is well intentioned, but it feels a little too Babe Ruth to say "today we find the cult recruiter" and restrict ourselves to trying to shoehorn someone into our vague idea of what that looks like in action. So I chose to simply vote for who I thought was least pro town.

Also, are night vigs usually one shot, or do they get one every night?

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Well, both one-shot vigs and normal every night vigs are common, normal roles; every night vigs are probably more common. Why?

Well, I'm of the opinion that we must have a vig (I'm not familiar with the alarmist role, if that could have caused him to get himself killed let me know), since 3 non town factions with night kills plus a cult recruiter would be kind of absurd. Anyway, my take on the situation is: scum needs to kill the cult recruiter, and vig needs to kill the cult recruiter. Why don't we let them do it, and as a town focus on lynching scum? If we mislynch today, it does not look like the odds are with us.

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that's a good point

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I doubt if there are two scum teams, as town would be at an absurd disadvantage. I think it's safe to assume from the current pool we're dealing with 2-3 scum, 1 CR, and 1 recruit. Nolynch is a really bad idea, as we're down to only one presumably anti town nightkill. Massclaim isn't the worst idea in the world, but I don't know how much it could really clear the waters. It might be the best choice, since today we actually need to hit CR.

Vino, I have come to terms with this two games in a row, you are a townie who is just that bad at this.

I'm very torn. GnK, why are you voting PotS? Do you think she's the CR or is it just a personal thing at this point? I think she makes more sense as CR at this point, especially considering how day 2 went.

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It's looking very likely that at least one of the remaining scum/CR is a mason.

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lol, really putting yourself out there with that one.

I don't think GnK is scum. My analysis of him yesterday I think was too creative. There were times the town almost forgot about litradmiral, and GnK would be the only one pushing for his lynch. He's been committed to our only successful lynch, and penguins keeps trying to railroad townies with such cases as "why is that, scum?". I get the feeling there are a few people we've followed too readily.

GnK, don't abandon the thread, it's just a game so why not try to win.

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the only thing I really see going for alvinz as CR is that he wasn't around much day one, which works to explain why KoC was recruited. I suppose it makes things easier if we assume CR isn't a mason, then in my book it's either got to be alvinz or rofl, and if it's rofl we're not going to catch him.

better than the alternative

vote: alvinz

(that's L-2 btw... you counted wrong vino)

Am I being suspected for any actual reason or are we just picking up where yosarian left off?

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Hurry and unvote Vino, ASAP, whoever sees this. He's not the CR.

CR has to be roflcopter or a mason. I think it could be lowell.

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also

unvote

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In fact I'm pretty sure it's lowell.

vote: lowell

I guess the most concrete thing I have is today when he went from

I feel underwhelmed by your decrees is all I'm saying.

unvote, vote vino

. Again I'll do what rofl says.

within the course of a page. It looks more like opportunism than trying to actually catch a CR. Look at his post history though, you kind of get a feeling.

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hey I answered your question before I even saw it

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He reads like a good player who isn't really scumhunting but hides it pretty well. Really, look through his post history.

I haven't done any math, ever. Have you looked at the current list? Basically by process of elimination it's roflcopter or a mason. For me it's kind of a tossup between the two of them, but I think lowell's dropped far more hints, and maybe rofl's just kind of overzealous. Little things, like in one post lowell is responding to litral's fakeclaim with a guess that the mod is writing up fakeclaims, and then when armlx says the mod was writing up fake claims, lowell acted surprised. I don't know, it's little things that just don't sit well with me. "I'm gonna laugh if alvinz is CR claiming recruit", to me gives just a hint of "guys here is how little I know about who the CR is, honest!". Maybe it's innocuous, maybe it isn't.

I can't believe you guys are trying to coast through day 3 though, our big group just got intimate, this is the best part of the game.

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did anybody read that post made by alvinz at the start of the day? the recruiter is officially not a mason.

Yeah, maybe, I think it would be a mistake to put too much stock in that though. It's just like the old trick where scum oppose the lynch of a townie because they're the only ones who actually know he's a townie, then they get to say 'I told you so' later.

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H_H, I'd be more careful were I scum/CR. Just sayin'

How do you mean exactly?

I don't agree that we can assume it's not a mason, hedging your bets to make endgame is scumming 101.

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I agree with alvinz about lynching alvinz, especially if the alternative is lynching vino, which would be pretty sloppy.

unvote, vote: alvinz

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yeah that's some really great cover GnK. ONCE AGAIN FOR THE SECOND TIME IN A ROW I ACCIDENTALLY HAVE HAMMERED. You guys are pretty bad, this is actually much much worse than the newbie game.

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dammit vino, you have no sense of humor.

re: gnk

It's pretty obvious that it was the hammer, GnK. You should have asked for a claim or given some indication you were going to hammer. Just like yesterday! It would have given us more information if you had waited, because he could have claimed! Claims are an important part of ending the day!

I don't think this is the end of the game. I wish we had lynched alvinz, though. I guess the only reason I'm somewhat frustrated is that I am tired of pouty players poutily defending their pouty actions!

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armlx I miss youuu

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Yeah we really should have lynched alvinz.. we're in kind of a shitty situation now. I'm thinking we should massclaim. I'm going to be limited access for the rest of the weekend, so whether we massclaim or not I'm putting this out there.

I'm cop (tried to breadcrumb a little bit day 1), night 1 investigated KoC (lol.) night 2 Vino (lol.). Night 3 Lowell. Lowell is anti town, I don't know if he's cult recruiter or mafia. Ideally we lynch mafia today, as that's the only way we can possibly win.

Welp, this should be interesting. I'll be back around Sunday night.

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No. We can lynch pretty much anyone but Alvinz. Whether he's cult or cult recruiter, lynching cult pretty much guarantees mafia victory.

Here's how this plays out: If we're dealing with more than one scum, and we lynch anyone who is not scum, then barring unforeseen happenings we go to 2 scum 2 townies tomorrow, scum wins. If we lynch scum, then scum has to kill cult, and it will be a really weird 2 cult 1 scum 1 town day which at least

can

be won.

Actually, there is also the possibility that alvinz is scum and made maybe the most flawless play that could be made out of an L-1 situation. Nobody is going to counter claim him, we don't want to waste a lynch on a recruit, he gets to coast to endgame with posts like "Post." It also might explain why he didn't get night killed.

GnK's post makes no sense, I will look more at that soon.

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welp, fingers crossed

unvote, vote: GnKoichi

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w00t. thanks for modding armlx.

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Yos was frustrating, because he had the right people but terrible arguments.

What does an alarmist do?

and here's our qt, you can see orange penguin's super conspicuous code words: http://www.quicktopic.com/42/H/dXX2LctA6mrUf

Town could have won all the way up until they lynched GnK. I think the Vino lynch was my very favorite part, though, since we had someone claim cult recruit at l-1 and switched targets. You guys forget we actually had three scum, litral was the day one lynch. It had me kind of worried when you guys hit him day one, but the setup was super imba.

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I figured you kind of remembered something I did day one that made you think I was scummy, and you didn't feel like digging it up. I dropped one comment about you just trying not to get lynched and I wanted it back immediately, as it was p obvscum.

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I loled though when you said you were 75% sure it was me. Like is this death note now?

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I would have claimed cop and seen where that got me. I wouldn't have had to make something up for lowell and I would have had vino as a townie, so it may have worked out. I actually investigated GnK night 3.

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armlx, I don't know if you're still checking this, but I'm super curious where that other night one kill came from.