Mafia 31: African - Game over!

[Myopia]

Random vote: Assasin

Kind of an evil sounding name there dude.

MoS. With respect, your personal dislike for locus is kind of oozing out of your posts. I dont think there was much to either of what Mathcam or locus said but as a matter of principle the fact that someone is a very good or very experienced player doesnt put them beyond reproach or give their logic any additional weight beyond the strength of the argument.

I find the first killing method interesting. Clay shard in the head. A spear? Did they use clay heads - doesnt sound hard enough? The victim was a potter too. Seems a little bit of a coincidence that he gets killed by a clay shard.

Obviously some of us are villagers and some are outsiders. Presumably the villagers are in the majority. Just as obviously not all outsiders are scum. A scum group in the village and a scum group amongst the outsiders seems reasonable but its pure conjecture at this stage.

Love the theme by the way.

[Myopia]

My apologies. I leapt to a conclusion and ended up with both feet in my mouth.

Theres a lesson there somewhere...

[Myopia]

interesting stuff.... keep posting.

(At this point I dont find vikingfan overly scummy, nor do I find matchcam for voting him or locus for voting mathcam)

I do find some other reactions quite interesting - let see how they pan out.

Not getting a very good vibe from this post.

Aside from lurking, the easiest thing in the world for scum to do is simply act as a "commentator".

You sound like an impartial observer rather than a player. Id rather here your thoughts on reactions rather than have you say how interesting they are.

unvote vote narninian

[Myopia]

Narninian. You didnt sound scummy because you didnt find anyone suspicous. You sounded scummy because you sounded like an interested bystander not a player which is a very easy persona for a scum to adopt.

To be honest the nature of my attack was pretty clear. You seem to have intentionally misstated it.

As for AndrewS. No attempt at a defence simply an "im too important to kill" statement. Its sufficiently indignant that im tempted to believe you. I dont think a scum would paint such a large bullseye on their head without being forced to, let alone right of the bat. So what now? As has been stated if your not scum youve now painted a bullseye on yourself for the scum.

What I dont understand is the statement that if you claim that gives the scum "very important details" they can use. What other details can they get other than details of your role?

If you have a power role then you shouldnt have hinted at it without trying to defend yourself first. Im all for not exposing our power roles until absolutely necessary but now youve outed yourself I cant see a lot of point in just leaving it at that and moving on to someone else. Agree with Uraj you may as well just claim with the qualification that if claiming would give the scum something more than simply your role (which appears unlikely) then it should be discussed further.

All in all your kind of proving the "townies with powers really deep down want to tell everyone how special they are" theory.

[Myopia]

Actually I hadnt read Maximus's post when I wrote mine (i think they were about simultaneous).

Reading it I didnt find anything too sus. While he said "stuff is happening" he went on to talk about what it was and confirmed his suspicions of Andrew S as opposed to saying "stuff is happening" but leaving it at that.

[Myopia]

I think AndrewS that we could do a lot more with your claim if you tell us whether you are an "insider" or "outsider" or "neither of the above". Do you know whether the government you are referring to "insider" or "outsider" or "neither of the above".

Can anyone think of a reason why he shouldn't say that know hes revealed his role?

[Myopia]

Something else I missed from the mods opening post. He said that from the "unbroken pots" we established the villager death was a potter. Sounds more like he was killed with say a pot to the head than a weapon or something. Then again it could all be just flavour.

[Myopia]

Ill clarify. Our opening post tells us that we are inhabitants of an ashanti village - "insiders". That village had a chief and theres no mention of a government. Indeed as stated a chief implies a tribal structure not a government but thats not clear. We know from our death list that we have "outsiders". They may all be english but they may not. A government would make more sense as an "outsider" institution.

AndrewS 's claim adds additional support for the insider/outsider theory. For me Id find it easier to analyse his claim if I knew what side he was on (villager or not). Hes being a little bit coy about which he is (and from his posts I imagine he could be either). Im preety sure that he would know. Our mod stated specifically that we were all getting our own pm's describing our role and mine for what thats worth was pretty flavourable (a sign of care and attention from the mod).

So far the key "theme" to this game is that we seem to be divided into insiders and outsiders. Note at this stage I think its too early to assign labels of "evil" or "anti-town" to either group. We know thats not entirely right because we have an insider townie and an outsider townie. However if we find there is a scum group in each - which seems likely as if you put all the sum in one group they are too easy to find if you eliminate everyone in the other group - as time goes on and we ascertain the relative size of the divide we might be able to greatly increase the chance of finding at least one scum group.

[Myopia]

Aggh i missed this whole page when I posted.

I think that a fetish priest claim fits the theme and is a very good one. Im almost positive that such a role exists.

Not sure about the sanity issue, particulary given that you use "plants" to receive visions. However, a limited use insane cop seems a little weak.

Im waiting on MoS to claim.

[Myopia]

Agghm more simul-posting.

Its a very imaginative claim if its crap. Sound like a very weak role though.

Will wait and see whether IS will admit to being blocked.

[Myopia]

Our 3rd scenario is that locus is not sane as unlikely as that seems with his nerfed role.

I just cant see why he would lie to take out MoS day 1 paticularly as weve established that Mos's claimed role is not that critical. Wouldnt AndrewS have been a better target if that was the goal?

I think locus is who he says he is, its just whether hes right or wrong.

We find out by lynching Mos unless of course IS can verify he was blocked (and then we think about whether he is a scum role blocker).

[Myopia]

I just assumed he was saying that he acted like a cop but only with two investigations total. Locating a random scum twice seems just a tad broken...

[Myopia]

We were one vote short and an unvote wasnt counted.

Seems to me from the voting sequence the most likely explanation is that maximumum, uraj or dranko has an extra vote (probably not dranko given his specific reference to the vote number and unvote) so that we had a lynch on 11 and dranko's subsequent unvote wasnt counted.

[Myopia]

Sounds like they're are definately 2 different scum groups and importantly both seemed to be "villager" or "insider" scum as opposed to a scum group based on foreignors or the government that AndrewS's power appeared to relate to. Its interesting that talitha's role said "infiltrator" while Mos's didnt - a suggestion of investigative immunity perhaps? If so I suppose the other group might have an infiltrator as well.

We have at least 2 killing groups which suggests a block or succesful doctor protection the first night. I would have thought AndrewS would have been a high priority for protection last night but then again so was locus.

More than 2 scum groups seems unlikey given that we had 1 kill the first night and 2 the second but surely it cant be as easy as having 2 scum groups as insiders and none as outsiders. I guess that suggests that the scum groups are most likely spread between the two?

[Myopia]

yes i was only half right (no make it a quarter) before - it cant be maximumum with 2 votes because narnian is still on the vote.

the vote count preceding the lynch was 9, narnian was already on, uraj took it to 10 and dranko to 11. narnian and dranko later unvoted but it must have already been twilight.

disagree that discussing this is scummy. mos was dying whatever happened and our mod made it very clear this was not an error of any kind

oh and nonny - you are correct, after talking about the potters death on night 1 I completely forgot about it later

i apologise for confusing anyone with my nomenclature. i was using "insider" or "villager" for tribespeople whether ashanti or not because it was unclear what or how many tribes we were talking about, whether there was only one scum tribe who wasnt ashanti or what. I was using "outsider" or "foreignor" for what we can presume are english people, or perhaps other europeans, some of which appear to be a part of the government andrewS affected (as we seem to be agreed that a government doesnt really fit the ashanti).

that terminology isnt particulary suitable now given what we know

we have what appears to be, aside from pro-town ashanti, representatives of at least two different non-ashanti tribes. maybe they are not all scum but that seems like a reach at this point.

we dont know if theres a third scum group amongst the "government group" (nah that doesnt work either) although that seems unlikely or theres come cross over between scum from the non-ashanti tribes and that group

my comment about the "infiltrator" reference was that while both scum were described as infiltrators in the flavour text only talitha seemed to have the word as per of her title. mos just got a reference to his tribe and no other descriptor in his role.

[Myopia]

oops scratch the last part of that

i just checked the first page, both scum not have infiltrator as part of their title

[Myopia]

Six of one, half dozen of the other unless its a power which can be used while the person is not actually voting for the recipient (which seems nifty but not particularly likely).

[Myopia]

Gosh. I wasnt particularly suspicious of you at all before but this claim is just complete crap.

So far everything in this game has matched the theme precisely. Your claim doesnt even come close. At least Mos actually did some research for his fake claim.

You say you win if their are more cult than pro-town but then say you win with the town. You say that you can recruit people who arent shady but then your not sure whether you effect a power role.

I think a pro-town cult is very unlikely. In addition to lynching at least 2 scum groups we have to make sure we dont get too many pro-town cult members?

The only saving grace to your claim is that is should be verifiable. In any event your still far enough from lynch that I can

vote maximus

[Myopia]

I agree IS acted early on like a cop with a guilty investigation on vikings fan ... "youd be fools note to vote etc". But he seemed to back down from it later. Again not saying vikingsfan is innocent but Im not sure IS found him guilty either. Additionally, it may be a mistake to simply assume that IS's abilities as a fetish priest were exactly the same as locus'.

The killing methods of our scum groups seem to be confirmed. One kills with the tools of the victim, the other hacks them to death.

Maximus tagged IS and quagmire as his cult recruits. While he tried to dress it all up as pro-town he was obviously lying (as his role his highlighted in red with the other evils on the first page). So it would seem that we have 2 formerly pro-town playes (they have to be pro-town or the recruiter would die) who are now cult. As I understand it the cult wins if the towns victory conditions are achieved and there are more cult than non-cult pro-town players left.

Note Im presuming for the moment that maximus told the truth about who he recruited. He must have been counting on his recruits to back him up or why make the claim? Wed lynch him as soon as his claim couldnt be verified. I do note though that there is nothing in IS"s role description to indicate he was cult.

Im not sure why IS was targetted last night by the scum (the kill with your own tools scum). I would have thought that the scum would have wanted to leave potential cult members alive to make the town waste lynches on its former own and allow them to make more kills.

I have some suspicions but first I want to hear from quagmire who was conspiculously silent during yesterdays lynch.

[Myopia]

Thats my point. Why tell the truth about your role (albiet hiding that it was anti-town) and lie about your recruits.

He was scum being wagoned to lynch. By lying about who he recruited he was automatically getting himself lynched when the persons named rejected his claim. It would be like a scum claiming mason with someone picked entirely at random. It would have made much more sense to make something else up entirely.

The only other possibility that makes sense is that he just gave up any hope of defending himself and tried to implicate other players but that just doesnt seem very likely - he was the cult recruiter, if we hanged him that day the chances of his recruits winning without him was very very low. I assume that he would have placed his personal safety first at that point.

I agree that it seems odd that assuming IS was recruited there was nothing in his descriptor to indicate he was cult. I havent played in another game with a cult so its unclear to me whether that clears him or not. I would have assumed that the player would read as scum and come out guilty on an investigation but as I said Im not sure of that.

Thinking about it I guess another possibility is that maximus' chose who he was trying to recruit but wasnt sure whether it was succesful or not. He did say that he wasnt sure whether it worked on a power role and it appears that IS was that.

I dont think that its determinative either way that IS rejected maximus's claims. If IS was cult I dont think there was any doubt in his mind that the town would not believe maximus' story.

The missing piece in this is quagmire. I think there is a very high chance that quagmire is cult or at least targeted by the cult. Im finding the fact that he hasnt posted since maximus made his claim highly suspicious.

[Myopia]

Sorry for the double post but I re-read maximus' post where he claimed and it makes a little more sense now (assuming he was telling the truth about who he targeted).

Maximus indicated that he "attempted" to recruit IS and Quagmire. He said nothing about whether he was successful and ignored locus' question to that effect.

He may have been told that he failed or may not have been told anything at all.

Perhaps the scum who killed IS (and I was wrong it was the hacky hacky scum group who killed him) thought that Maximus had failed with IS because he was scum from the other group and whacked him.

[Myopia]

Bah, I think quagmire is full of crap. I've thought about it a bit and I think its best to claim. Normally I don't think I would but our mod is tricksome, we probably have docs left and the longer I leave it the more complications will arise particularly if my suspicions are true. If I'm forced to claim while on the defensive I may well lynch myself.

I am a cop. No restrictions. Last night I got a guilty result on quagmire.

I'm also a fetish priest. That make me #3 (and I suspect there could even be more).

I'll start from the beginning.

Night 1. I investigated Talitha. I can never read her in any game and figured that would be a good start. I got innocent.

Day 1. Locus claims fetish priest. My initial reaction is "what the ?". I don't counterclaim mostly because of this:

Thinking. But I've decided. I am the Fetish Priest, the town's repository of religious knowledge. I can use special plants as part of a religious ceremony to recieve guidance from the Gods, but I only have enough plants to do this twice.

I don't want to go too far into this because our mod has set out very clearly what will result in a mod-kill and i think locus himself got quite close but:

- the content of that post made me realise that he couldn't possibly have made up the claim;

- his post implied that his role, as mine did, indicated strongly that he was "the" (ie only) fetish priest in the game - (so much so that before the game started I made a mental note to myself to maybe counterclaim if other people claimed a "witchdoctor" role because I was apparently it").

So ironically the inference that he was the only fetish priest in the game together with the other things he said made me realise that there was more than one of us and he was telling the truth. My role had a bit of flavour text to it and I suspect its probably quite similar to locus' but given the mod's comments I don't think we should risk playing the paraphrase game quite yet.

My posts that day were strongly supportive of locus. I posted something along the lines of "Locus is telling the truth. I think its very likely that there is such a role in the game" firstly to make a later claim by me consistent and secondly so that If I was night killed and came up "fetish priest" locus wouldn't be killed especially if he was wrong about MoS.

Course then his investigation was proven to be true and made things all a bit academic.

Night 2 I investigated another player who came up innocent. Cant see any point in saying who at this point unless theyre about to be lynched. At this point I note talitha was guilty and start thinking I might be naive or insane - because of that and because locus' role is weaker than mine.

Night 3 as I said I investigated quagmire and got guilty. I picked him over IS purely because I thought IS would attract more attention.

So I'm sane and talitha was immune to investigations (note my post referring to her status as "infiltrator" - I really wanted her to be "special" scum and immune rather than me be useless) or I'm insane (not naiive or paranoid).

Either way I think Quagmire is either cult or scum who was targeted by maximus and the recruit attempt failed. Either way lynching Quagmire probably gets us scum and confirms my sanity at the same time.

Now I realise that my "evidence" that I'm telling the truth is my verification of locus in circumstances where he probably can't verify me. I could of course have made all of this up quite easily. However if I am scum its pretty silly of me to out myself simply to take out quagmire who is already pretty suspicious anyway. If I am then quagmire for me is an acceptable trade any day of the week. I thought about a little "white lie" to make me a cop other than a fetish priest but theres just too much chance I trip myself up that way and hurt the town.

So

vote quagmire

[Myopia]

Fair enough. Its certainly possible that Im insane.

The reason why I set all of that out was so that everyone could have exactly the same information as me and make up their own minds.

But lepton? Why would I do that? Surely you have to concede that I wasnt under any pressure when I made the claim.

[Myopia]

Like Otaku said, both Talitha and MoS are Infiltrators in the front page.

Myopia, I find it very disturbing that you want so bad to be useful for town that you think up something like "immune to investigations" to make you sane cop. Even worse, you thought lying about your role?!? That doesn't sound like cooperative town play - it sounds like you're trying to win the game all by yourself.

That said, you do understand that now as your sanity seems to be proven insane, your investigations are as valuable as those of sane cop. If you're telling the truth, your night 2 investigation should give us scum. Unless you're lying and to be honest, I thought two Fetish Priests were already bit too much for a small village like this.

I said quite clearly that the options are that talitha had an immunity or i am not sane. You can make the same judgement I can because Ive given you all the information.

We don't know the scum abilities. We dont know if there is a difference between the scum groups. And a scum having an immunity ability isnt exactly unheard of. It may well be a balance against what seems like an awful lot of cops.

As for me being unco-operative, thats simply unfair. I didnt lie. Put yourself though in my shoes and think about whether you might be tempted. Its not exactly the usual position for a cop to expect a hostile reception when they claim. Weve got one fetish priest dead and another claimed. Not exactly the easiest claim in the world to pull off as #3 is it? As Ive said I have a hunch we have another one too but theres no reason to go into that.

Also what locus seems to have ignored in his pique at me for what wrong I can only imagine but as ill as it made me I essentially put myself in a situation where he can kick my claim to cinders if he wants to.

I made two statements that I didnt have to make that only locus at this stage can verify:

1. its reasonably arguable that locus nearly mod-killed himself (it doesnt take a genius to work out how) in the post I quoted;

2. his role implied he was the only fetish priest.

Before you call me a liar locus tell me these statements are completely inaccurate.

As I said I think there is a resonable prospect quagmire is scum regardless of my sanity.

[Myopia]

why didn't I realize this earlier.

vote: Myopia

Locus only had enough herbs and stuff for two investigations. Myopia, please explain why you have 3 investigations under your knowledge.

As I explained I have one investigation per night no limit. The key difference between our roles is that I dont use herbs. I help people at ceremonies where the gods take over my body. Recently Ive used my abilities to obtain visions from the gods.

As I explained that is definately something that should be kept in mind when determining my sanity. If Im sane locus definiately has a weaker role than me.

[Myopia]

Gosh it appears my full and frank statement of my role, my investigations, my though processes and all the possible consequences was simply too confusing for some people.

I knew Locus was innocent because HE QUOTED MY BLOODY PM. That quite obviously makes it his PM too despite what Yaw said as its just too much of a coincidence otherwise. For the third time locus how did I know that if I made it all up? Why didnt IS counterclaim you either? Bah.

Enormous FOS for those accusing me of a lepton. Why would I stick with such a horrible horrible claim?

As for how I can think myself sane well (as i said) it would seem that i think the chances of talitha having an immunity are higher than some of the people who posted. We have a town which is being infliltrated from the outside by other tribes. We have a killing group who kills with the victims own weapons. We seem to have a lot of cops. Personally I thought that it matched the theme.

Further, i guess subjectively ive been influenced by the fact that the person i received an innocent result on night 2 hasnt seemed very scummy to me but for the very small thing on day 1 that they didnt even do which lead me to investigate them as opposed to quagmire who seems scummy as hell. Ive found it difficult to disentagle the "am i sane" issue with the "who is more likely to be guilty out of the two of them issue" - one of the reasons why I laid it out for the town to begin with.

As for the quagmire issue Ive already indicated my view as to why maximus would not have lied entirely and suicided. Not one poster has attacked my logic in that regard. We dont know that maximus died if he tried to recruit cult only that he would fail. He said that he attempted to recruit quagmire. Accordingly I thought quagmire had a very high chance of being scum and a quagmire lynch would simultaneously sort out my sanity. I still do.

Oh I will indicate who i investigated night 2 - i think it would be dangerous to risk dying with the information - but I wanted to hear some discussion first. And I guess I thought Id feel less bad about outing them if they thought it was the right play. I count 4 people who want me to out my innocent. Give me another 5 and I will. A bit silly maybe but im inclined to do the exact opposite to what locus demands at this point and if thats scummy well i simply dont care.

[Myopia]

Ah the irony.

I was playing it safe. But I admit locus just really pissed me off and i was disinclined to simply do what he said because he said it. Thats fairly poor play on my part and Ill try to keep my personal feelings out of it future.

My night 2 investigation was mathcam.

When MoS was revealed to be scum I went through his posts from day 1. I thought it a bit odd that he defended mathcam so agressively (more irony) from an attack by locus. Plus I always think matcham seems pro-town and i wanted to know that I could believe what he says.

[Myopia]

So the upshot for those at home is that unless Im random, me, mathcam or quagmire is scum. At best im telling the truth we lynch the right scum and confirm my sanity. At worst we trade two pro-town players including a cop for a scum.

My vote remains on quagmire.

[Myopia]

I dont think we can make much from the scum titles we have so far.

As I posted, originally talitha was described as an "infiltrator" and mos wasnt. After I raised the issue (because I was looking for discrepancies between the two) the front page was modified and they were both "infiltrators". But that seems to me at least like a more general scum description than an individual role.

An investigating immunity could be part of talithas role or part of her tribes role. I dont know. I could be insane (or even random). Only the scum know at this point.

If the town wants to revisit the issue tommorow when we have more information fine. If someone else wants to verify my investigations fine (although I think any discussed plan on the part of locus to do so will simply be interfered with by the scum).

But I do think quagmires being let of the hook bigtime. He has pretty much lurked to date. He didnt post at all in response to maximus' claim. He posted something irrelevant the next day and didnt even respond to the allegation until prompted. He hasnt answered questions about his role that was taken away despite being asked.

Ironically and its my mistake if its true but I dont think he would have been let of so lightly if I hadnt claimed.

[Myopia]

I'm working with what I have. I've had a look at quite a cross-section of mafia games lately and ivestigative immunity seems less rare than people are making out.

I admit that part of the reason Im voting for quagmire rather than mathcam (ie preferring a sane view) is my personal view that quagmire is much scummier.
Now I may have fallen into the classic mistake of changing the facts to suit my preference but quagmire has done absolutely nothing today to alleviate my suspicions, indeed he has bolstered them. He has refused to come out and reveal his "lost" ability despite the fact that it is lost.

Id like to hear claims from both mathcam and quagmire and I dont think either should by lynched until they do.

[Myopia]

Oh, and when Maximus roleclaimed, we were all heavy on his trail and it was unlikely he could avoid being lynched. So at this point, I'm leaning toward the thinking that he never recruited Quag or IS and recruited altogether different people. Under this line of reasoning, Myopia would be insane and thus mathcam would be scum.

If we lynch mathcam and he's found scum, I'm thinking this line of thought may be correct.

That doesnt answer the obvious question: why did maximus make up a claim that he KNEW would get him killed (because neither of the people he "recruited" would back him up) rather than claim impala salesman or something.. anything. As I said its like a scum claiming a mason buddy that doesnt exist.

The "there could be two recruiters argument" doesnt answer that either.

[Myopia]

I'd ready to vote for you mathcam, if you don't roleclaim, because thinking about it more and more, the more likely you are to be scum, and if your not, I got my eyes on you Myopia.

Very scummy dranko. Im pushing for quailman here but I think its a risk to lynch either without a claim. Why not add the strengths of their respective claims against the arguments we have so far? If mathcams claim is crap and quailmans is reasonable (or verifiable) ill be the first to apologise and change my vote.

If matchams innocent and your scum it the easiest thing in the world to rush mathcam to a lynch without any claims then start a wagon on me tommorow and it looks like your prepping just that.

For those who think Im pushing this too hard its quite obvious to me that if im still alive tommorow and we get the wrong lynch today there will be lots of people (particularly the scum) gunning for me tommorow. Accordingly lets get it right. Whats the rush?

[Myopia]

Why'd you vote Coron so soon, MMCL, especially since A)lots of people said they would be voting Coron, and B)everyone said they wanted to wait for Myopia. If Myopia had gotten killed last night, we wouldn't have his night 4 investigation, which could potentially hurt the town.

I'm not voting until I hear from Myopia on each of the last 2 nights' investigations.

I missed day 5 entirely (I was at the beach that weekend). Frankly, I thought it highly likely Id be killed last night as that would stop 2 investigations.

Obviously Im insane (and my recent results just confirm that). Theres lots of excuses but the bottomline is I was wrong. Sorry Quagmire.

We've whittled the mafia numbers down some and we probably still have a doc (which is a very good thing). In other good news I just cant see one of the scum groups still having a role blocker (ie the companion for the dead blocker) or I wouldnt be receiving investigation results at all.

Day 5 I received a guilty (ie innocent) result.

Day 6 I received a guilty (ie innocent) result.

The issue is whether the town wants me to reveal these results now. Ill be led by the town on the matter.

As I see it our set-up is as follows (assuming you accept im not scum and we dont have any investigative immunities).

13 alive of which me, quagmire and the two people i investigated are innocent

For the scum (assuming 2 3 person mafia groups) we have:

- a fanti god father
- an akupem (something probably not a blocker but very likely with an ability).

We also have up to 2 cultists (sorry christians) who it would appear will only matter in the end-game. Its unclear to me at this stage whether cultists will register as guilty on an investigation.

So 4 innocents, 2 scum (in 2 killing groups) and 2 cultists.

I'm assuming the fanti god-father is not investigative immune and likely has another power (maybe immune to night kills or maybe he just sends the kills as suggested).

So our chances today of lynching scum are 2/11 (omiting myself and quagmire) if I dont reveal and 2/9 (If I do). If I do reveal we have 3 confirmed innocents, 2 of which may well be killed tonight.

My gut feeling is that I reveal. Theres probably one scum left in each mafia group. If we can knock of one then we take the kills down to one a night which gives us an enormous advantage.

What does everyone think?

[Myopia]

Note my percentages are based on cultists not registering as guitly which im not sure about.

[Myopia]

I'm assuming the fanti god-father is not investigative immune and likely has another power (maybe immune to night kills or maybe he just sends the kills as suggested).

Where do you base your assumption?

I still believe IS got something.

vote: vikingfan

Because Coron was the godfather of the other scum group and was not investigative immune.

[Myopia]

Youve had nonny pegged for scum for a while but to be fair I cant see how they can reasonably respond to "spider sense".

With most of the people who were suspicious to me dead, I have gone through the individual posts of each of the remaning players and several players have struck me as "simply going with the flow" and voting on established bandwagons particularly assassin, uraj, dranko, nony and quagmire.

Id like to hear what they think about whose scum at this point. Of that group aside from quagmire I'm most suspicos of assassin simply because he has only jumped onto established bandwagons so far. Theres been very little of any substance at all to any of his posts.

We seem to be about half an half reveal/not reveal at this point. I do think that maximumum's point about it likely being safe for another day is valid (provided we dont lynch our likely doc by mistake). Ill certainly speak up if were about to lynch the wrong person.

We have 2 cops, a linguist and a doc dead. We would seem to possible have quite a few other pro-town power roles left - although its unclear whether they were lost when andrew S died. So far only quagmire has admitted to being affected.

I note also that we still only appear to have one "white settler" which implies there are others left in the players alive. As all the scum are from other tribes that tends to suggest thay are pro-town but its not of course certain.

[Myopia]

Um Im not voting for anyone.

[Myopia]

Ok. My bad.

unvote vikingsfan

vote assassin

until I hear something substantial

[Myopia]

Even if IS was signalling when he voted for vikingsfan, we already have one sane cop and one insane cop. I think there is a reasonable case to be made that IS was paranoid (more than usual).

[Myopia]

I dont think there is any more information (or time) to be gathered from this.

I also thought Nonny would have put more effort in their defence.

Nonny is innocent guys. I investigated them last night and got a guilty (therefore innocent) result.

[Myopia]

So far Im not aware of any argument for vikingsfan guilt other than IS's comments on day 1.

So we have two issues:

- Was IS' vote for Vikingsfan with his comment "youd be fools not to vote for him" an indication that IS reeived a guilty investigation (and implicitly that IS chose to investigae vikingsfan day 1 over everyone else).

- If so, was it accurate and is Vikingsfan scum (bearing in mind we already have a sane and insane cop).

A sub-issue of the later is whether his claim is reasonable.

For mine:

- personally IS seems to me to make bold and unshakeable statements of peoples guilt without giving any reasons all the time;

- Im less inclined to read a "cop tell" of IS day 1 then anybody else I can think of;

- I have some doubts about whether IS was sane;

- I think the claim is a reasonable one (at least if you think about it the most reasonable one weve had yet - the scum have all had a horrible time claiming).

But to be fair I dont necessarily think that anyone who disagrees with my analysis must be scummy either.

[Myopia]

I make that 6 votes on Olio. Lets not lynch him prior to a claim.

[Myopia]

I definately think the results should be revealed as they can be cross-referenced against my results.

Provide them please.

[Myopia]

Oh and lets not rush of and hang vikingsfan until this is sorted out. A back up cop when we already have 3 is a lot. Im reasonably confident though that we can sort out whether olio is telling the truth without having to lynch someone.

[Myopia]

Oh lots of information here.

Coolbots points are excellent ones. Maximumum jumped in very fast to verify olio's claim without being named first.

I have a feeling Olio is scum at this point which makes a couple of other people rather suspect as well. Before I indicate my reasons Id like Olio to indicate who his other investigation is.

MMCL I dont get any role information just guilty or innocent. That is a little bit different from my pm which suggested that I would receive a vision that would require interpretation but its all I've received so far.

An investigation which indicates role and alignment seems ridiculously powerful. Adding a backup cop to receive the results even more so.

[Myopia]

This isnt going anywhere.

Vikinsfan is my innocent result (came up as guilty like nonny and quagmire) on day 4. I wanted to know for myself whether the issue with IS was relevant or not.

As I doubt that vikingsfan was scum who was immune to my investigation but not IS's, we appear to have the following options:

- olio is scum and so is maximumum (her conveniently leaping in to confirm her role is support of that);

- olio is scum but has access to some investigative abilities (at least in order to establish who maximumum was) and maximumum is who she claims;

- IS' information is insane which would make the other two targets scum (this seems very unlikely given actual role information is handed out - "evil master drummer"???);

- I am making this all up, I am scum with vikinsfan and Im risking my comfy position as confirmed cop to protect him and kill olio.

As to the first, while as I said maximumum confirmed the claim very quickly in order for her to be scum with olio that would make at least 4 scum in the scum group and that seems fairly unlikely at this point. If this is the case though then olio should be unable to give us his weaver result (because he has no more scum buddies to lie and confirm it).

As to the third as I said that seems very unlikely.

As to the fourth, well I guess you can believe what you want, although Ill put my record of claiming while not under any pressure and delivering a confirmed (albiet insane result) against olio's claiming while near-lynch any day.

That leaves for me the second option as the most likely. Olio is scum with some investigative ability or access to it and he has another investigation on an innocent. I also think that an investigative ability that indicates role is more likely for a scum cop who already has a much better idea of everyones alignment than a town cop.

In any event I think it likely that Olio is scum because:

- as stated I think a pro-town power that indicates role and aligment is unlikely - a backup cop for that role even less likely;

- a backup cop in a game with so many cops already seems unlikely;

- if he knew vikingsfan was scum from the time IS died why did he wait so long to come out? Why go through all this argument about vikingsfan (all that argument about approaching each game with a fresh slate) and wait until he himself was one vote from lynch before claiming. In particular he had to know that if we hang a scum today we may well eliminate a killing group entirely and put the town in the box seat to win this game.

Now hanging either olio or vikingsfan gives us further information as to the veracity of the claim (indeed so also does lynching maximumum or myself) but I think olio is the better lynch at the moment.

Ill wait til everyone has their say but i will be voting for olio unless something else comes to light.

[Myopia]

Are we having fun yet?

Ok:

- first, i have no idea why mmcl wont confirm the claim - i can only assume he is waiting to the answer to his question first - his being a cloth weaver would certainly indicate why he was so certain coron was scum;

- two, i dont have any further innocents in the bag - ive revealed them all now - to recap:

n1 talitha innocent
n2 mathcam innocent
n3 quagmire guilty
n4 vikingfan guilty
n5 nonny guilty

- third, im a confirmed insane cop to the extent i indicated day 3 that one of mathcam or quagmire was scum in line with my results - i did prefer quagmire for the reasons stated - i was of course wrong

- i guess i could be scum in mathcams group making this all up (ie knowing he was
scum) but why then did i claim to kill him? alternatively i guess you could

- fourth, I dont think maximumum is necessarily scum with olio - that would make 4 scum in that group - olio might be a scum cop or have information from elsewhere - accordingly I dont think that if olio is scum we should immediately lynch maximumum

- fifth to answer the people who have requested further information on my role - I will clarify (although some of this was already stated when i claimed)

- to paraphrase my role:

i am a fetish priest. i am a keeper of religious knowledge for the town (indeed my pm indicates strongly that I am the only one). most of the time i help the people of the village by attending religious ceremonies. i receive visions from the gods during those times. with the current difficulties i have turned my abilities to obtaining visions about other players. each night I can choose a player and receive a vision from the gods which is up to me to interpret

- as I said, my pm indicated that the vision would need interpretation but what i receive is a statement as to my feeling that the person is guilty or innocent

- sixth, the reason I did not confirm nonny and vikinsfan before now is well documented at the beginnning of the day. I told the town I had 2 innocent results and asked whether I should indicate them. the consensus was to hold on unless that person was in danger of being lynched. i said that and that was what I did with nonny. quite obviously things changed when olio claimed a guilty investigation on vikingsfan someone whom i have an innocent result on

- seventh, I agree failing something like a mafia framer or something changing aligment (both of which seem like long shots) lynching olio or vikinsfan should work out who is lying - as I said I think olio is a better target and quite possible saves us a kill tonight if he is the last of his scum group;

- eight, olio's claim is sounding more and more like crap. I think it highly unlikely that he received MORE information from the mod than IS did which is what he seems to be leaving open now. He failed to answer maximumum's question about what vikinsfan was if not an orange seller. And yes I would have believed you a lot more if you had come out while not under pressure.

Your turn olio to provide some further details of your role.

And MMCL is that sufficient for you?

[Myopia]

Alternatively he may simply not have realised you were a threat. Master drummer sounds pretty innocuous to me.

In any event I simply cant rationalise olio's result on vikingsfan. I know Im telling the truth so i will

vote olio

and if thats right Ill take my hat off for mmcl for his scum finding this game

[Myopia]

oops

unvote assassin vote olio

[Myopia]

You make some valid points.

In response:

- If Olio is scum he didnt reveal himself and his investigations just to lynch vikingsfan. As you will recall the context of the claim was him looking the wrong way down a very large bandwagon which was based around the fact that he was pushing for a vikingsfan lynch which he couldnt justify without the claim. I dont think it was a matter of getting vikingsfan lynched more trying desperately to stave off his own lynch today.

- To be fair if Olio is scum I cant really rationalise why he went so hard for vikinsfan. And of course his claim only buys him an extra day if its wrong. For me this puts me at about a 80% certainty he is scum rather than 95%.

- Assuming i had a masterplan to lynch mathcam to ingratiate myself with the town (as you suggest) you have to admit I went about it a very strange way. Remember that I (mistakenly) wanted to lynch quagmire. If the town had of gone along with me I would have been in a really difficult spot the next day that I didnt have to put myself in.

- In line with your theory, If Im scum then im scum with mathcam and vikingsfan (which would require 4 in that group). Its a WIFOM argument but why would I go to all the trouble to establish myself as a cop and lynch my buddy to do so and then risk all of that uneccessarily to save vikingsfan for a day. Bearing in mind that if we lynch olio and he is innocent then vikinsfan probably gets lynched tommorow and me the day after if he is scum.


- Your theory ignores the relative strengths of our claims (I think Ive done this to death to this point so Ill leave it)

- If you do think that my and olio's claim have equal validity or olio's claim is stronger than mine then frankly I agree that vikinsfan might be the better lynch from an objective information perspective as failing something we cant anticipate it will indicate vikingsfan's alignment and should indicate olio's and mine.

- However a right lynch is also preferable to a mislynch (which gives the scum another night to kill). Subjectively I know that vikinsfan is the wrong lynch and olio is quite likely the right one. As Ive said if olio is scum its quite possible that killing him kills his scum group as well.

- Ultimately Im operating on a subjective basis of course. As a matter of common sense Im simply not going to vote for someone I have an innocent result on. Whether the town agrees is of course up to it.

[Myopia]

I received a guilty (therfore innocent) result on otaku 76. I cant see any point in not outing innocents at this stage when we have so many.

It certainly seems that with olio's death weve eliminated a killing group so the 3 scum per mafia seems the most likely possibility at that stage which potentially only leaves us with 1 godfather left.

Factors for vikingsfan being scum

- why did olio tag him as scum if he knew it would simply buy him a day


Factors for vikingsfan not being scum

- olio was desperate;

-locus received a guilty on the other godfather which makes it likely (at least to me) that the other godfather isnt investigative immune either

- for vikinsfan to be guilty olio must have received a guilty on him while I received an innocent which doesnt make much sense (hes unlikely to be immune to one not the other).

On the whole I dont think anyone is 100% confirmed innocent but at this stage Im comfortable with anyone I investigated and received an innocent for as 95% innocent unless someone comes up with some further info.

[Myopia]

Oh and last nights results says to me that our last killing group (most likely 1 but I suspect 2 at most) attempted to ascertain for certain whether we have a doc left by targeting me and found we do indeed have a doc left.

I think at this stage we lynch out of the list of those who havent been investigated. I can confirm an innocent each night (or find our last scum) and the scum cant kill enough confirmed innocents to survive unless they can neturalise the doc.

The sole downside to this plan of course is if our last scum is/are investigative immune.

[Myopia]

VKFan, just because Olio is mafia does not mean YOU are innocent, in fact it INCREASES the chance that you are scum,

I voted for Olio because I believed he was scum and because I didn't think anyone would lepton when they were the only member of their family left.

Pooky I understand what your saying but it doesnt reconcile how olio and I had opposite results on vikinsfan if as appears to be our current assumption that there are 3 scum in each scum group and olio can only have known that vikinsfan were scum if he received a guilty investigation.

[Myopia]

My current list:

Me and the players ive investigated and found innocent (note im not saying that im automatically a good guy and you have to believe me this is my perspective)

Me
Big Kahuna (replacing nonny)
Otaku 376
PookyTheMagicalBear (Replacing Quagmire)
vikingfan (orange seller)

At this stage Im prepared to accept these players are 90% confirmed innocent on the basis that the godfather we lynched isnt investigative immune. See pooky's posts for the alternate argument.

The players olio claimed to have investigated:

Maximumum (master drummer)
MMCL (cloth weaver)

Somewhat ironically I think they are probably innocent particularly if olio was indeed the last of his scum group.

Im 80% convinced mmcl is innocent. Hes been fairly instrumental in lynching scum from each group and I find his claim of cloth weaver extremely consistent with his treatment of coron's fake claim.

Im 70% convinced maximumum is innocent. Part of it is her demeanour. Partly her claim and partly because she just seems pro-town to me. I think that if she were scum she wouldnt have called attention to her self by attacking me yesterday.

The rest:

Assasin
CoolBot
Dranko20
Quailman
Uraj45

I really dont have much of a read on any of these players. If I found them particularly suspicious I would have investigated them first. Aside from coolbot they have all lurked to various degrees and I really struggle to divine much from coolbots posts as to his alignment.

This may sound harsh but im pretty much prepared to lynch anyone on that list at this point as their all about equal scumminess to me (im probably leaning against coolbot merely because he has been much more active).

[Myopia]

Actually assassin hasnt posted since 8 March and uraj hasnt posted since 14 March. Is a mod prod appropriate at this point?

[Myopia]

Sorry, I didn't see we were back.

I'm curious why maximumum defended olio and why she consistenly attempted to discredit myopia.

I defended olio because he had a correct investigation on me and one other player. I believed his claim.
I wasn't attempting to discredit Myopia, I simply stated that there is no proof that he is what he claims to be. We still hadn't (and haven't) done anything that would tell us either way if what he is saying about his role is true.
Now he wants us to lynch someone who he hasn't investigated. There would STILL be no indication that is role is in fact insane cop. I would just like to be certain before I take what he is saying as gospel.

Who then do you think we should lynch at this point?

[Myopia]

Anyone want to way in on vikingfans point about an insane cops results on someone with investigative immunity?

Ill admit I assumed that a cop would receive a result filtered through the cops sanity on a godfather (ie an insane cop would receive a guilty and a sane cop an innocent).

Anyone know how this has been treated in past games?

I agree with pooky's point (and indeed stated it myself earlier) that it does seem odd that olio would lie about vikingsfan to gain just one more day.

I also agree that 2 3 person scum groups is more likely than 4 person scum groups. Although of course that is still uncertain.

However I think we also need to take into account the fact that:
- olio was close to lynch and rather desperate;
- the reasons for his bandwagon essentially came down to his attacks on vikinsfan - a claim that did not include a reason for vikingsfan to be guilty was likely just going to lead to a lynch anyway;
- we simply just dont know who olio investigated day 1;
- personally (and this is very subjective) if I was scum with a mafia cop role I dont think I would pick vikingsfan day 1.

Lastly as a game balance issue I just think it more likely that either both godfathers would have investigative immunity or neither would.

In summary, pooky has made some good points. Frankly the town probably can afford to miss a lynch at this point if we have a reasonably suspicion that vikingsfan is guilty.

Personally though I previously made the mistake of overvauling the changes of talitha having an investigative immunity and argued for the wrong lynch. Im just not that keen about lynching someone who I received an innocent result on based on the testimony of a dead mafia.

Accordingly Id rather move through the list of uninvestigated people and come back to vikingsfan first if we still cant find our remaining mafia.

Lastly while I think any cultists at this point will certainly be trying to keep the mafia alive to maximise their chances at winning I have an innocent on pooky as well and think it unlikely he is cult.

[Myopia]

night 1 - talitha - innocent
night 2 - mathcam - innocent
night 3 - quagmire (pooky) - guilty
night 4 - vikingsfan - guilty
night 5 - nonny (big kahuna) - guilty
night 6 - otaku - guilty

i might have vikingsfan and nonny round the wrong way

[Myopia]

Big kahunias analysis seems reasonable to me.

vote dranko

[Myopia]

Im not sure what to make of this.

I figured the absolute worst we could do is force the doc to claim. Your making out something far worse. If your right then it would appear that both the doc and I (and any other ashanti roles) will no longer work.

My initial reaction though is that the claim is crap because:

- the town is ashanti - the pro-town players seems overwhelmingly ashanti (at least the roles revealed to date) making your death early an absolute catastrophe which seems unlikely (in fact I find it difficult to believe as a matter of game balance that a mod would tie a large number of roles into the survival of just one);

- andrewS's function appeared to also deal with ashanti albiet the "government" roles which implies cross-over which seems unlikely;

- andrewS's role was simply "linguist" - if there were two of you I would have thought the name would reflect that.

My vote stays until you can explan the above and what you mean by "ashanti roles".

[Myopia]

Wow surprised that the game is over. We didnt miss a lynch!

We got very lucky with locus's investigations. I dont think anyone even dreamt he was paranoid. And for some reason the scum seemed rather noticeable this game. They certainly had an awful time claiming. Note all the attention talitha got night 1!

I thought the set-up was quite balanced. Well done mod and thanks to everyone else.

[Myopia]

Yaw as a side issue one small difficulty I had is the use of the same role pm for locus, IS and me. It was obvious when locus claimed and paraphrased his role that we had the same pm. I think the "repository of religious knowledge" part would have done that alone. That confused me alot given your game rule that comparison of role pm's would be useless because each pm was changed.

That small issue aside I think that was the best modded game ive played in thanks.