Mafia 33: Checkmate - Game over!

[Lt. Origen]

Eh, I guess I'll join in the fun.

Random Vote: NanookTheWolf

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[Lt. Origen]

WuGam: It's not really a matter of townie vs. scum that he's worried about, it's black vs. white. If he actually claimed one, it would make him a target. Recognize a joke when you see one.

[Lt. Origen]

warp: He also *is* scum very frequently, at least from what I've seen, and good at getting away with it. To apply IS' own theory of aggressive bandwagoning on Day 1, there's nothing wrong with going after him. I'm not ready to go after him myself, yet, but with 17 to lynch, there's an awful lot of room to work with. We might even have 3 wagons going at the same time. I doubt they could *all* be scum.

[Lt. Origen]

Iammers: Misetings, for one, although they're more a humor site that happens to run large mafia games.

[Lt. Origen]

Yaw: Given that there are 16 pawns, I think the scum can claim pawn fairly easily, and it would take forever to fully root them out. And a mass claim would not only reveal the power roles to the scum, but presumably color for opposing sides, at least for some roles (king, queen, whichever pieces are masons, since the mod implied that there were some).

Iammers: Believe me, they do it all the time.

[Lt. Origen]

Yaw: Ack. Were you talking about color or role claims?

[Lt. Origen]

I think that we'd better keep the wagon rolling, because otherwise this day might take a month.

Unvote

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Vote: Baby Jesus

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[Lt. Origen]

Speedy: I think people are looking at the 17 votes required to lynch, and getting scared of the game stalling out. Leastaways, that's partly why I'm wagoning, because getting people to vote in Rival Turf right now is like pulling teeth, and we only need 8 votes there. Besides, right now all we seem to have to go on are BJ's odd behavior, and inherent suspicion of IS and Coron. What should we do if not bandwagon?

[Lt. Origen]

STD: I don't think I ever said he was our only option, just that with so many votes, it'll be hard to switch the town over to another one, unless something drastic happens. There's a difference between only and current best.

[Lt. Origen]

It's almost a pity we don't have google ads here; the ones we'd draw for all our talk about 'white,' 'black,' 'colored,' and 'lynching' would be rather interesting.

[Lt. Origen]

Actually, I think Locus was the 17th vote. The vote counts seem to have missed that I switched to BJ in post 115.

[Lt. Origen]

Andrew: I'm not voting for Nanook anymore. I switched back in post 115.

I think that we'd better keep the wagon rolling, because otherwise this day might take a month.

Unvote

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Vote: Baby Jesus

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[Lt. Origen]

SV: I honestly think that's *why* the day went so quickly. (Although the day wasn't short by pagecount.) No one wanted to wait forever, so they all piled on. It is kinda ironic that we managed to out-IS IS before he ever posted in the thread.

[Lt. Origen]

vikingfan: I've certainly see him claim out of the blue that people are scum when he's just an ordinary townie. In Dodecamafia (Little Italy #166) he did it two days in a row, only stopping because he got nightkilled.

[Lt. Origen]

Yoko hasn't posted anywhere since the 25th of March, although he does seem to have confirmed for Andy Griffith mafia since then. Odd.

Still, Coron is behaving rather bizarrely.

Vote: Coron

, because this isn't Bizarre mafia.

[Lt. Origen]

That's a LOT of rather specific suggestions you have there, for what's supposed to be random speculation.

FOS: Pooky

, just for packing so much BSing into one post.

[Lt. Origen]

Hmm. We have six people listed dead on the first page, and five from last night. Doesn't that mean there are only 21 still alive, and therefore we only need 11 to lynch? We really need the master list to be updated.

[Lt. Origen]

Until something mroe interesting comes along,

Vote: Pooky

for pulling stuff out of his hinter regions.

[Lt. Origen]

Pooky: Well, there's also the fact that I've been busy with reading for school of late, so I don't always get the chance to make a point before someone else does. I don't feel the need to re-argue every point that comes across, so if I agree with someone, I'm not going to have a lot to say. And I have no problem stirring up discussion; I did as much of that as I could in Rival Turf. It's just that I'm suspicious of claims of concrete information out of the blue like you made. We've seen a role that's a color cop (King), and a role that's an alignment cop (bishop). And yet here you are claiming knowledge of color, alignment, *and* role? General speculation: useful. Specific speculation: fishy.

[Lt. Origen]

I'm always up for a good lurker vote.

Unvote, Vote: sycko

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[Lt. Origen]

So... can we get a replacement mod?

[Lt. Origen]

olio: A very common one.

[Lt. Origen]

*bump*

And can we get a votecount?

[Lt. Origen]

Vote: Iammars

. I suppose we don't have anything better to go on right now. This game seems to have been characterized by a lack of solid information to work off of.

[Lt. Origen]

Pie: I'm pretty sure that you'd just get 16 claims of pawn.

[Lt. Origen]

The thing is, it seems like the only way for the town to win right now is for scum to kill each other, and that's assuming they don't already know each others' identities. They've avoided killing each other so far, somehow. If any of the non-pawn, non-scum roles tell the truth, then they'd be guaranteed townie-kills tonight. If we assume that there are 7 scum left, then even if we lynch one of them today, they still only need to kill 2 townies to be 50% of the town, at which point we can't really lynch them anymore, unless we're dealing with two opposed mafias, which seems unlikely at this point. (If one dies to crossfire or gets vig'd, they need three, which still looks easy, especially if there are claims to work off of. If both happen, or there's massive crossfire, then we can still win.)

In short, full claim = probable scum victory, even if the scum claim truthfully.

[Lt. Origen]

I'd be kinda interested in hearing more from BJ, myself. That much certainty right out of the gate in rather unusual.

[Lt. Origen]

Unusual for this late in the game without an explanation. We're way beyond the point where we can afford to lynch randomly.

[Lt. Origen]

Actually, that's kinda a bad deal for the king's side. After all, if the queen's side can pick off the other at a faster rate, then they'll have quite the advantage.

[Lt. Origen]

Oddly enough, I'll be away during the same days as STD. No, we're not eloping.

[Lt. Origen]

Double-you tee eff?

We have three claimants for one role? I guess that means we have a couple lynches lined up. For now,

Vote: Dranko

for claiming early. Quite frankly, I can't believe Stevie would claim with two other people already there if he wasn't actually the pawn.

[Lt. Origen]

Unvote

. And here I thought we just had really bad scum.

[Lt. Origen]

I'm inclined to believe Pie in this case. Sorry I don't have time to go into more detail, but I'm pretty much on my way out the door.

Vote: Crola

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[Lt. Origen]

Uh... yeah. (I'm actually agreeing with BJ!?)

Vote: Yaw

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[Lt. Origen]

This seems to have turned from Mafia into Diplomacy.

Remember that Fuldu has a unique win condition that is exclusive of all others at this point when deciding whether to follow his lead. As the only remaining white townie, he only wins if everyone else is dead.

[Lt. Origen]

Hmm. Here are the groupings, as I understand them:

3 Black Scum
2 Black Townies
2 White Scum
1 White Townie

Possible coalitions:

Black Scum + Black Townies : lynch white scum
Black Scum + White Scum: lynch queen or no lynch (I assume that the white mafia is unlikely to lynch the king if they think he'll protect them.)
Black Townies + White Scum + White Townie: lynch black scum

The last one doesn't really seem to offer much to the white scum, though.

[Lt. Origen]

While it is in the white scum's interest to lynch black scum, I'd argue that it's *more* in their interest to lynch the queen.

[Lt. Origen]

Man, that triple pawn claim *really* screwed us over. As for why we hit them, I felt 3 confirmed innocents was too large a voting block to be left lying around, and I wanted to reduce the town's certainty. It's interesting that white mafia had a similar idea and managed to not overlap with us.

Apparently doc protection in this game was absolute, as I'm pretty sure we targeted Yaw for death the same night Pie tried to vig him.

Also, I'm glad I never had to try and defend a claim of pawn, because Andrew accidentaly sent me their role PM, and that could have created a nasty little ethical bind.

[Lt. Origen]

Crola: The town had a weapon it usually doesn't have; a complete list of rolenames. That allowed for late-game mass claims to be game breaking.