Mafia 105 - Caught in the Crossfire (Game Over)

[Xylthixlm]

Hi. What do I need to know?

[Xylthixlm]

Magic 8-ball says elvis is scum.

vote elvis_knits

[Xylthixlm]

Because your lack of commitment to a damn game of Mafia is unbelievable.

Defending yourself is part of the game. Improving your play is part of the game. Defending yourself is part of the game. Making the effort to submit decent posts is part of the game. If you deliberately use a scummy posting style, you will be suspected in every game until you prove yourself to be a consistently useful scum hunter.

You refuse to improve your play. You refuse to improve your posting style. So, yes, people suspect you—and they should. An always-scummy posting style does not mean you don't have to defend yourself. But you've actually done scummy things this game. And even in the games where you are not scum, you should be policy-lynched for this sort of thing, because you do not find and lynch scum frequently enough to validate your technique ... if you can even call it a technique.

Doing all that, getting duly wagoned, and then demanding a replacement and whining about it like a four-year-old with his eyeball dangling by a tendon out of the socket is unbelievable.

I want to frame this post.

[Xylthixlm]

Pads please explain why roflcopter is scum for someone who hasn't read the whole game.

[Xylthixlm]

Idiotking 908: This is not a good reason to suspect elvis_knits.
charter 913: Confidence?

[Xylthixlm]

This is not a good reason to suspect elvis_knits.

Care to tell me why not?

Voting is not scummy. Bandwagoning is not scummy. Changing your mind is not scummy.

[Xylthixlm]

hyper-analytical scum mode

Pot, kettle.

[Xylthixlm]

What are you talking about Xyl? Maybe you should read the game.

Try reading your own posts.

[Xylthixlm]

What is the point of reading my own posts, Xyl?

^ scum

Thanks for confirming my first guess.

[Xylthixlm]

Bandwagoning is not scummy, unless it is only on popular targets.

Do you even know what bandwagoning means?

[Xylthixlm]

Do you even know what bandwagoning means?

In my head it means hopping on a bandwagon, or helping to form one. If I'm wrong feel free to fill me in.

Okay. So... in what cases will bandwagoning

not

be on a "popular target"?

And do you disagree with the rest of my statement?

Yes.

[Xylthixlm]

with Xyl pegging his targets even with flawed premises

You

do

realize I was scum in that game, right?

[Xylthixlm]

Not buying the case against Vi.

I feel like I need to draw boxes and arrows to figure out just the last 5 pages...

[Xylthixlm]

You and Xyl are the ones with good points against her

My points against elvis were "Magic 8-ball", "pot, kettle" and "^ scum".

[Xylthixlm]

Hito is the best

after

elvis (imo), and I think it'd be better to leave elvis for the dayvig to deal, y'know?

You should be voting elvis then. You can change your vote when the dayvig shoots.

[Xylthixlm]

Hito is the best

after

elvis (imo), and I think it'd be better to leave elvis for the dayvig to deal, y'know?

You should be voting elvis then. You can change your vote when the dayvig shoots.

I don't really see much of a difference.

It makes it easier to keep track of who thinks who is scum, and is more useful for analysis later.

As a general rule, you should always be voting the person you want to see die next.

[Xylthixlm]

tl;dr
charter's case on me is a bunch of bogus tells even he can't believe in

I dunno, charter went off in completely the wrong direction in /in-vitational 4 and made such a bogus case against me that I was convinced he must be scum, but he was town.

charter: You should stop attacking Vi and SpyreX now, and find some actual scum. Thanks.

[Xylthixlm]

Recent posts make me want to lynch sigma, but I need to analyze this after I've woken up.

[Xylthixlm]

charter: You should stop attacking Vi and SpyreX now, and find some actual scum. Thanks.

[Xylthixlm]

Lynching someone whose meta you don't know is just extension of "lynch killa 7" logic

Always lynch killa 7.

[Xylthixlm]

Just skimmed through hiphop, popsofctown, sigma, RayFrost, and Infinis. Surprisingly enough sigma and RayFrost both look townish. The scummiest one of those

by far

is hiphop.

vote: hiphop

[Xylthixlm]

Is it usual for you to never explain why you vote for people?

Yes.

[Xylthixlm]

Choo choo goes the vig.

Now, Pads.

No. hiphop is next.

[Xylthixlm]

This post is making me lean town on Maemuki:

I feel obligated to believe this, but isn't it a bit early to be spitting out stuff such as "confirmed town"?

You seem uneasy around people thinking I'm town. Why? Would you be like this if they called me scum? Why did you put "confirmed" into rofl's mouth?

@ Roflcopter, Vi, why am I town?

[Xylthixlm]

I'd lynch Mae or EP. Despite the slimyness of Vi's vote on Mae, and her general scumminess with regards to all things Mae, there was quite a bit that suggested Mae was scum with Elvis.
unvote, vote

Vi

So, Mr. charter, tell me about your dreams...

[Xylthixlm]

hitogoroshi, has anyone ever told you that you picked a bad username? Seriously, "murderer"? I'm going to expect you to be scum in every game...

[Xylthixlm]

oooo, I feel like hiphop is doing what I believe is known as flailing.

Cute.

FoS: hiphop

ftw

hiphop needs more actual votes

[Xylthixlm]

In general (not specifically from my experience in this game) I agree with the conventional mafia wisdom that pro-town lists provide a good starting point for mafia NKs

This conventional wisdom is bunk and hurts the town. Ignore it.

[Xylthixlm]

xyl, what do you think of maemuki?

Seems to be an interaction-based case, I'm not really in a position to judge it yet because I haven't caught up on the game. On pure iso read I'd say leaning town.

[Xylthixlm]

xyl, what do you think of maemuki?

Seems to be an interaction-based case, I'm not really in a position to judge it yet because I haven't caught up on the game. On pure iso read I'd say leaning town.

how does her complete lack of voting factor in? her spending 90+ percent of her time dealing with how people feel about her?

I'll take another look later but right now I'm much more confident hiphop is scum.

[Xylthixlm]

I want to lynch pads just because of how pretentiously he's posting. His verbiage practically oozes slime.

[Xylthixlm]

Maemuki, what I want from you right now is a town/scum/neutral list including every other player, and

brief

explanations of why for each player. You don't need to do any extra analysis, just post your current impressions off the top of your head.

[Xylthixlm]

xyl gets one more post to switch his vote to mae before i start giving him a hard time

Oh really.

[Xylthixlm]

xyl, how'd you like mae's post 1106?

Utterly crappy. I'm holding out hope for a better one. If it doesn't appear soon I'm going to switch my vote.

[Xylthixlm]

Maemuki, what I want from you right now is a town/scum/neutral list including every other player, and

brief

explanations of why for each player. You don't need to do any extra analysis, just post your current impressions off the top of your head.

^ in case you missed it.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm going to take that as claiming scum.

unvote, vote Maemuki

[Xylthixlm]

TOMORROW can we lynch hiphop please.

[Xylthixlm]

I really hate these drive-by scumtells with no explanation.

SpyreX is a hoopy frood.

[Xylthixlm]

Note, this ONLY really applies if Mae is town.

Mae is not town.

[Xylthixlm]

I like the fact that I managed to stick myself (and my role and my alignment) into a small 10%.

Have fun!

Have you noticed that you're still acting as antitown as possible even after you're lynched?

[Xylthixlm]

Well, not actually lynched yet, but you know what I mean.

[Xylthixlm]

Have you noticed that you're still acting as antitown as possible even after you're lynched?

I don't want to shut up but I don't really know how to be useful either.

So, yes. What's the chance of anybody removing their votes now? At least let me die now so I won't stay until endgame and be mislynched then. And so I won't be tunnel-visioned. So you can catch scum, ok?

Is there anything you want to know? If there isn't you can just say it now, it saves me a lot of trouble.

I said it twice already.

[Xylthixlm]

Also, I'm trying a new playstyle so I can get in the head of town-lurkers like mae.

It helps.

The only thing I want to know about how town-lurkers think is what will get them to stop.

[Xylthixlm]

Well, I have mislynched town-lurkers in lylo

twice

There is a 100% foolproof way to never lose in lylo because of a lurker.

[Xylthixlm]

Well, I have mislynched town-lurkers in lylo

twice

There is a 100% foolproof way to never lose in lylo because of a lurker.

Kill them beforehand?

Got it in one.

[Xylthixlm]

I had no motivation to post an analysis. WIFOM it all you want but reason dictates that it would be safer and smarter to keep my mouth shut.

^ SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM

[Xylthixlm]

Holy crap people! Slow down! I need to catch up!

Catching up is overrated.

[Xylthixlm]

Infinis and hiphop

both

need to die ASAP. Tonight would be great, tomorrow would be acceptable.

[Xylthixlm]

Why charter before infinis?

[Xylthixlm]

Meh. Back to my good read.

vote: hiphop

[Xylthixlm]

3-shot vigs are occasionally used.

I'm kind of disliking the push on charter. I don't have a town read on him, but I don't have a scum read either. Cases based on connections alone make me nervous. I'd much rather go for someone who is just blatantly scummy, like hiphop.

[Xylthixlm]

Tell you what. I'm just going to sit here with my vote on hiphop. Any townie who gets tired of arguing about connections and scumtells and stuff and just wants to vote a sure scum is welcome to join me.

[Xylthixlm]

Vote Count, Day 3

hiphop ( 1 ) Xylthixlm
Shotty to the Body ( 0 )
charter ( 2 ) roflcopter Shotty to the Body
fhqwhgads ( 0 )
hitogoroshi ( 0 )
Idiotking ( 0 )
Infinis ( 0 )
Xylthixlm ( 0 )
Pads ( 1 ) SpyreX
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 0 )
RayFrost ( 0 )
RedCoyote ( 0 )
roflcopter ( 0 )
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 12 ) hiphop charter fhqwhgads hitogoroshi idiotking Infinis Pads popsofctown Zakeri RayFrost RedCoyote Sotty7
Total Votes ( 16 )

With 16 alive, 9 needed to reach a majority.
Deadline is at December 12th, 4pm EST

SpyreX bad. No vote Pads. Pads town.

[Xylthixlm]

the case against elvis was based on connections.

No, MY vote on elvis was based on looking at her in iso and OMG SCUM! I didn't need any connections.

[Xylthixlm]

Actually it took me

less than seven minutes

between getting my role PM and posting a "hi" message (no, I didn't look at the thread before that), to getting a read on elvis as scum. Do you seriously think I did a connection analysis in less than seven minutes? No, she was just plain totally obvscum. And now hiphop is just plain totally obvscum. I don't need any fancy analysis, I just need to read his posts.

[Xylthixlm]

we really need more votes on charter. the people who are subtly defending him by pushing alternate wagons or calling him only sort of scummy but not as scummy as someone else are quickly rising on my radar (looking at you, sotty and xyl)

You don't get to say that unless we lynch hiphop and he turns up town.

[Xylthixlm]

no but charter is scum

We lynched Maemuki yesterday, now we're lynching hiphop.

[Xylthixlm]

... wow that sounded really scummy. Go me!

[Xylthixlm]

You don't get to say that unless we lynch hiphop and he turns up town.

Or charter flips scum.

I've had it happen that I was pressing one person (who happened to be scum) while most of the town was pressing someone else (who also happened to be scum). I took some unjustified flak for the second person flipping scum.

[Xylthixlm]

I killed crypto and then Vi.

*smack*

Why the hell did you kill Vi?

[Xylthixlm]

Apparently my

large text

was unclear:

charter: You should stop attacking Vi and SpyreX now, and find some actual scum. Thanks.

Only upside, I think Vi was probably the scum kill too, so you just

wasted a shot

rather than actually

killing a very protown player

.

[Xylthixlm]

Seriously, wtf. I knew charter was tunneled on Vi, but I

*thought*

the elvis flip had persuaded him that his read was wrong... but apparently mere

evidence

is not enough to dissuade charter from his tunneling.

[Xylthixlm]

guys we need to lynch redcoyote

Got what I needed, so sure

unvote hiphop, vote redcoyote

[Xylthixlm]

Everyone elvis called out in 295 has came up town, so I feel like we must continue to press on with her. She had to have mentioned her partner at some point.

"This strategy has had a 100% failure rate, so we should keep trying it."

[Xylthixlm]

unvote

[Xylthixlm]

now that charter is dead and confirmed scum, i'm willing to lynch hito based on this snippet alone:

Correct me if I'm wrong but rofl's case on charter kind of seems like a pretty similar argument to the one that was made against Mae.

but for the time being i'm sticking with my idiotking vote. if xyl and/or rc want to switch to a hito wagon i'll jump.

I seriously, seriously need to do some iso reads, and I don't have time right now. I'll get back to you.

[Xylthixlm]

Hiphop's wagon, not so much.

His iso for the first day and a half or so is not good. Lots of asking other people's opinions, not a lot of personal opinions. Lots of attacks on the inactive, not a lot of generated insight. Lots of fascination with people breaking the word count limit, lots of one sentence posts, and lots of easy wagon jumping.

But here's what gives me pause. He has some reasonable points on Sotty (the E_K vote was highly suspicious), enough to make me plan to go re-read Sotty. And his later posts are opinion-laden. They're occassionally babbling and incoherent, he spends plenty of time discussing the game's setup (which I think is considered a scum tell by the general populace, but I don't find it to be a big deal), and he answers questions that aren't directed at him, but he says what he thinks.

It's a little strange, but the point is that his play is developing as the town gets more and more information. Looks town to me.

Yeah. This.

[Xylthixlm]

Thanks for contributing to the discussion Xyl.

Not. Can you please contribute to the discussion so I can even begin to read you?

I am contributing. If you can't read me the problem is on your end.

[Xylthixlm]

Vote Count, Day 3

hiphop ( 2 ) - Sotty7 - RayFrost
shotty to the body ( 0 )
fhqwhgads ( 0 )
hitogoroshi ( 1 ) - Pads
Idiotking ( 2 ) - roflcopter - RedCoyote
Xylthixlm ( 0 )
Pads ( 1 ) - SpyreX
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 0 )
RayFrost ( 0 )
RedCoyote ( 1 ) - hiphop
roflcopter ( 0 )
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 7 ) - fhqwhgads - hitogoroshi - idiotking - zakeri - Shotty to the Body - popsofctown - Xylthixlm
Total Votes ( 14 )

With 14 alive, 8 needed to reach a majority.
Deadline is at December 12th, 4pm EST

If you can't read me listen to one of the many people who can please

[Xylthixlm]

If you can't read me listen to one of the many people who can please

Because they are saying "town" mirite?

Obviously. If they say scum don't listen to them. Especially roflcopter.

[Xylthixlm]

Mrrrh. iso reads say hitogoroshi and Pads are both leaning town.

[Xylthixlm]

SpyreX feels weird. Doesn't feel like mafia proper though. Town playing slightly off, or traitor/third-party.

I want to strangle Idiotking over the internet for the replacement thing, but I'm not sure on his alignment. Neutral.

[Xylthixlm]

Gut reads:

Town

charter

, hito,

Infinis

, Pads, Red, SpyreX,

elvis

Shifting from Scum to Town

hiphop,

Vi

, pops

Neutral

Everyone not mentioned

Sotty, Zakeri/Psychologic, Shotty/Budja, roflcopter, Xyl/Ethereal/Juls,

ConfidAnon

Shifting from town to scum

crypto

, Ray,

sigma

,

Hoopla

Scum

Penguin,

CSL

,

Maemuki

, IdiotKing

[Xylthixlm]

Got to go but I still need to take closer looks at:
RedCoyote, popsofctown, Sotty7, Zakeri/Psychologic, Shotty to the Boddy/Budja, RayFrost, fhqwhgads/Energetic Penguin

[Xylthixlm]

People that spyrex find to be townies have an extreme propensity to die - this strikes me as scummy, but of course there's some WIFOM in there as well (being that it would be so blatantly obvious as scum.)

I'm not going to be shocked if SpyreX is a second traitor-vig. I'm not going to be shocked if he's town either.

[Xylthixlm]

Stop being more hyperactive than I am.

[Xylthixlm]

Vote Count, Day 3

hiphop ( 1 ) - Sotty7
shotty to the body ( 0 )
fhqwhgads ( 1 ) - Xylthixlm
hitogoroshi ( 2 ) - Pads - RayFrost
Idiotking ( 4 ) - roflcopter - RedCoyote - SpyreX - Shotty to the Body
Xylthixlm ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 0 )
RayFrost ( 1 ) - idiotking
RedCoyote ( 0 )
roflcopter ( 0 )
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 5 ) - fhqwhgads - hitogoroshi - zakeri - popsofctown - hiphop
Total Votes ( 14 )

With 14 alive, 8 needed to reach a majority.
Deadline is at December 12th, 4pm EST

vote: fhqwhgads

Let's lynch a lurker.

[Xylthixlm]

<---- totally hasn't been paying attention

All very tl;dr to me, since I find it draining to catch up once I get behind~

We can help with that

unvote, vote RayFrost

[Xylthixlm]

Wait, so this late in the game you'd lynch a NEUTRAL READ when there are two other players besides hito that you've said were scum? And you're not voting/pressuring them?

FLAMING FOS OF DEATH ON RAY

Because I'm already voting you.

^ anyone who's voting Idiotking right now, shouldn't be.

[Xylthixlm]

You know rayfrost I was going to vote you, you are at L-5 right now, after iso 95, 97, and 100 combined with your scumminess throughout the game, but than you had to make post 1389 I don't know if I am reading too much in into it, but at this point I would encourage other people to unvote rayfrost.

^ This is a rather large scumtell

[Xylthixlm]

Vote Count, Day 3

hiphop ( 1 ) - Sotty7
shotty to the body ( 0 )
fhqwhgads ( 1 )
hitogoroshi ( 2 ) - Pads - RayFrost
Idiotking ( 4 ) - roflcopter - Shotty to the Body
Xylthixlm ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 0 )
RayFrost ( 1 ) - idiotking - SpyreX - Xylthixlm
RedCoyote ( 0 )
roflcopter ( 0 )
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 5 ) - fhqwhgads - hitogoroshi - zakeri - popsofctown - hiphop - RedCoyote
Total Votes ( 14 )

With 14 alive, 8 needed to reach a majority.
Deadline is at December 12th, 4pm EST

If you guys get me to L-1, I'd like it if I got a chance to claim first.

At this point you should

not

be waiting for L-1 to claim.

Actually, you should have just claimed instead of making this post.

[Xylthixlm]

Should be done reading either today or tomorrow

fgads is fulfilling the destiny of the EP slot - how long before catchup isn't an excuse?

Let's lynch a lurker.

Wow, one time I give an ETA and I'm called out by two as a lurker. Nice. Noted.

I'm a strong believer that you should start posting immediately then catch up as you have time. "I haven't finished reading" gets you no slack with me, buddy.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm a strong believer that you should start posting immediately then catch up as you have time. "I haven't finished reading" gets you no slack with me, buddy.

So this is a scumtell then?

Maybe a little, but it's mostly the fact that none of the active players strike me as super-scummy, which makes me think the scum are lurking. So I look for a lurker, and lo! there you are!

[Xylthixlm]

Just caught this little gem while rereading.

I'm not really in a position to judge it yet because I haven't caught up on the game.

Pot, meet kettle.

Hmm? I found a scum within ten minutes of replacing in, and have been posting regularly even before I was caught up. What have

you

done?

[Xylthixlm]

CSL was lynched very quickly. Maemuki was lynched very quickly. The scum were not shy about jumping on.

Hito's and IK's wagons have stalled.

A RayFrost wagon started on a whim and was very quick to gain energy.

This sort of analysis is dangerous. I have seen it before and it often results in someone being hesitant at joining the wagon of a caught scum.

[Xylthixlm]

Hmm? I found a scum within ten minutes of replacing in, and have been posting regularly even before I was caught up. What have you done?

Oh, my mistake, you must be confirmed town then.

I voted you for lurking while "catching up". You quoted a post where I said I was catching up and said "pot, meet kettle". I pointed out that, unlike you, I was not lurking while catching up. Your sarcastic reply is completely unwarranted and borders on blatant misrepresentation.

[Xylthixlm]

By my count RayFrost is at L-2 and should absolutely, definitely, 100% claim.

[Xylthixlm]

Would you not agree that 'caught scum' wagons are usually much slower to build than 'townie who said something wrong' train, because it requires multiple, bickering townies to agree, rather than a smaller number of aligned scum to slip on the wagon?

I would not agree, no. Sometimes wagons on scum form much faster than wagons on town. I haven't seen any real pattern.

[Xylthixlm]

I would not agree, no.

I'm going to take that as your agreement.

Earth to planet Pads, do you copy? This is planet Earth calling planet Pads, come in Pads.

[Xylthixlm]

Imaginary mechanic sounds imaginary?

Indeed, he's almost certainly lying ... likely SK.

[Xylthixlm]

An SK you can order around is a vig though.

Kinda. It's risky.

[Xylthixlm]

Hasn't anyone ever told you not to claim scum?

[Xylthixlm]

I actually have to think about this one. My inclination is no, we're better off slowing down the game and getting more lynches. Plus if he's kill-immune we

have

to lynch him eventually.

[Xylthixlm]

God in heaven that is a lot of kills

I'm guessing we have another day/night killer who has been killing at night up to now...?

[Xylthixlm]

Damn votes in the middle of huge blocks of text. I miss them every time.

Well, we're lynching RayFrost.

[Xylthixlm]

Unvote

Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah.

Put that back.

[Xylthixlm]

There

might

be some value in leaving RayFrost alive and continuing to debate, but we no longer have that option. Right now, with 24h to get a lynch, RayFrost is by far the best candidate. I know there's a possibility of benefit from leaving him alive but it's nowhere near the downside of rushing a lynch on someone else in 24h.

[Xylthixlm]

xythlim, towns only hit scum at some incremental amount among random chances. It's like 5 % or something.

A rushed 24 hour decision, even if it deprives us of almost all that improvement (it won't), is worse keeping a shooter alive.

I'm not sure what you meant here. It seems some are missing.

[Xylthixlm]

Did you mean "worth" rather than "worse"? Because if you do, I disagree. Keep in mind that you're talking about a

nontown shooter

. If he was actually town my decision would be very different.

[Xylthixlm]

popsofctown: Look at it this way. We have someone who we absolutely need to lynch some time before the end of the game. If we lynch someone else today, we will have to lynch RayFrost eventually. So what's the effect of instead lynching RayFrost today and someone else later? We lose the SK-directed kill, but we gain more information when we eventually lynch someone who isn't RayFrost. This was a close decision before we learned that majority had been reached; throw in the fact that we need to decide the lynch in 24h, and I think RayFrost is clearly the best option.

[Xylthixlm]

ABWOP: The thing that's different here than in the town vig case, or even the non-kill-immune SK case, is that

we absolutely must lynch RayFrost before the end of the game

. The question isn't "if" to lynch him, but "when" to lynch him.

[Xylthixlm]

Xylithm, you would trade in 2 daykills for a few weeks deadline extension? Because that's all the reversal of tomorrow's lynch and today's is. A few weeks deliberation versus two daykills. Yes, we have to kill him eventually. But making a snap decision on who to lynch here gives us two daykills.

No, a snap decision on who to lynch here gives

RayFrost

X daykills. Whereas delaying the decision gives us X extra day/night cycles of revealed aligments to use when deciding on a lynch, not just extra time for discussion.

[Xylthixlm]

Vote Count, Day 3

hiphop ( 1 ) - Sotty7
shotty to the body ( 2 ) - popsofctown - SpyreX
fhqwhgads ( 2 ) - idiotking - RayFrost
hitogoroshi ( 1 ) - Pads
Idiotking ( 1 ) - fhqwhgads
Xylthixlm ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 0 )
RayFrost ( 3 ) - Xylthixlm - roflcopter - Shotty to the Body
RedCoyote ( 0 )
roflcopter ( 0 )
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 4 ) - zakeri - hiphop - RedCoyote - hitogoroshi
Total Votes ( 14 )

With 14 alive, 8 needed to reach a majority.
Majority reached. Plurality will be lynched at 3:45pm EST Friday, December 4th

I think we disagree about the value of discussion and the value of daykills.

If those were the only issues I'd probably be against the RayFrost lynch. They aren't.

Rule of thumb: When there's someone who you need to lynch eventually, you should lynch them as early as possible.

[Xylthixlm]

As such, lynching me provides no new information whatsoever.

It sends us to night, 2-3 more people die overnight, we learn their alignments. That's new information.

[Xylthixlm]

Xyl, you pushing for the lynch of a town-directed daykill or two is really coming across as scummy.

Oh no the SK is calling me scummy for pushing for his lynch.

pops, you

really

want to leave this guy alive?

[Xylthixlm]

As such, lynching me provides no new information whatsoever.

It sends us to night, 2-3 more people die overnight, we learn their alignments. That's new information.

Umm... we can lynch anybody else to get to the night too, so yeah.

But if we lynch someone else, we do that without the information.

I know you're not going to understand this, or at least you're not going to admit to understanding this, because it's in your self-interest not to. But consider these two options:

1)
Lynch RayFrost today.
2-3 people die overnight.
Lynch player Z tomorrow.

2)
Lynch player Z today.
2-3 peopel die overnight.
Lynch RayFrost tomorrow.

In the first option, the lynch of player Z is made with the info of the alignments of people who died overnight. In the second option, it's made without that info. Therefore, lynching RayFrost today rather than tomorrow gives us

more info

when lynching player Z.

[Xylthixlm]

Still don't value that as much as daykills though. Nightkills don't come signed and information derived from them have to be hard fought through WIFOM. Usually the scum just kill a really really protown player anyway.

Hopefully we have a vig, and that vig will shoot a scummy player. Then we'll know the scummy player's alignment.

[Xylthixlm]

Actually your hope is that town will wait too long to lynch you, and we'll get to a choice where we have a choice between lynching you or lynching the scum but either way we won't win, and we'll be so happy that you've helped us that we'll lynch the scum and let you win.

[Xylthixlm]

Leaving rayfrost alive is atypical play, and it's not textbook play

You're reading the wrong textbooks then. It's a well-known strategy.

[Xylthixlm]

I have to point out that, if Ray is kill immune as he claims, the mafia are not his biggest threat. In fact, killing the last scum would be the WORST move he could possibly make. If I was him I'd doing exactly what he's doing now... then try to miss.

[Xylthixlm]

Ultimately he doesn't have a choice.

No way in hell is he going to get to pick his shots.

Even if we end up lynching him tomorrow I'd still like to have one more shot.

I'd like to have one more shot too. But is it worth it to make a rushed decision with less info now, to get that one more shot? No.

[Xylthixlm]

Lynch the damn claimed SK.

[Xylthixlm]

It's not counterintuitive. It's suggested every single time someone claims SK. It's why people DO claim SK. A million people have had the same idea before you. I am not "cowering", I am trying to impart the wisdom that

it is not as good a play as you seem to think it is

[Xylthixlm]

The reason I have a strong position here isn't because I'm mindlessly parroting some recieved doctrine, it's because I've been in this situation before as town - and strongly considered it as sk - and I did the careful analysis then.

[Xylthixlm]

Spyrex - the zillion kills actually lessen the value of an extra kill, and improve the value of information. If you'd really go for lynching in a normal game it should be a slam dunk here.

[Xylthixlm]

The bit about sk was just pointing out that I've seen thissituation from two sides.

[Xylthixlm]

Pops: I am aggravated. You appear to be locked into a position that was made based on a flawed cost-benefit analysis, and even though you've admitted your analysis was wrong you don't appear to be reconsidering your decision.

[Xylthixlm]

Vote Count, Day 3

hiphop ( 1 ) - Sotty7
shotty to the body ( 2 ) - popsofctown - SpyreX
fhqwhgads ( 2 ) - idiotking - RayFrost
hitogoroshi ( 1 ) - Pads
Idiotking ( 1 ) - fhqwhgads
Xylthixlm ( 0 )
Pads ( 0 )
popsofctown ( 0 )
Zakeri ( 0 )

RayFrost ( 3 ) - Xylthixlm - roflcopter - Shotty to the Body

RedCoyote ( 0 )
roflcopter ( 0 )
Sotty7 ( 0 )
SpyreX ( 0 )
Unvote ( 4 ) - zakeri - hiphop - RedCoyote - hitogoroshi
Total Votes ( 14 )

With 14 alive, 8 needed to reach a majority.
Majority reached. Plurality will be lynched at 3:45pm EST Friday, December 4th

I did fail to notice a cost, true.

That cost still doesn't override 2 daykills though. 2 daykills is 2 daykills.

Here's an interesting question for you:

If we decide that we will absolutely lynch RayFrost in 2 days, no matter what... what's his incentive to kill as we direct the second day?

[Xylthixlm]

You can't wait 1 day to find out? Even one? I don't see any reason to doubt his claim either. I mean, when someone claims Cop with 2 day kills, you should be suspicious, but when someone gets absolutely as close as you can get to claiming scum, why doubt their claim?

Because you don't want to lynch him.

[Xylthixlm]

Someone remind me who the scum are

[Xylthixlm]

I think hiphop is on the money about RedCoyote/charter being two of roflcopter's investigations.

I note we only had one night kill last night, which makes sense if the third kill night 1 was another day/night killer.

If zoraster put in a godfather and/or miller in addition to the random sanity and third party roles coming up innocent, I'm going to skin him with a rusty knife. No pressure.

[Xylthixlm]

I'm going to skin him with a rusty knife. No pressure.

This was hyperbole by the way.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't think RC was one of the investigations. Early in D3 roflcopter voted for RC as well as called for him to be vigged/NK'd. Only after the charter flip did he decide RC had to be town.

So... he had opposite results on RC and charter, and thought that RC was scum and charter was town. When charter came up scum he realized that he had them backwards.

[Xylthixlm]

Right now hiphop is voting the person in the game who, based on role info, is least likely to be scum.

[Xylthixlm]

So looking at this charter wasn't even a real vig for us, he was an extra scum-kill until he was recruited, so we haven't seen a town-aligned vig yet. My money is on the back-up activating when charter was recruited and him killing charter for lying.

This would be even crazier than having a traitor vigilante who becomes a backup mafia roleblocker, and

that

doesn't even belong in a normal game.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't think RC was one of the investigations. Early in D3 roflcopter voted for RC as well as called for him to be vigged/NK'd. Only after the charter flip did he decide RC had to be town.

So... he had opposite results on RC and charter, and thought that RC was scum and charter was town. When charter came up scum he realized that he had them backwards.

Who do you think he investigated night one?

I don't know. Right at the moment I'm just reading what other people are saying about possible breadcrumbs, rather than looking for them myself.

[Xylthixlm]

So looking at this charter wasn't even a real vig for us, he was an extra scum-kill until he was recruited, so we haven't seen a town-aligned vig yet. My money is on the back-up activating when charter was recruited and him killing charter for lying.

This would be even crazier than having a traitor vigilante who becomes a backup mafia roleblocker, and

that

doesn't even belong in a normal game.

Back-up vig is a possible role, it doesn't really matter. The point of this is that I'm 99% sure RC is conf-innocent.

He's conf-not-mafia, which is plenty good enough.

[Xylthixlm]

vote: Zakeri

[Xylthixlm]

Uhh really? I don't think that one post ties me to Zakeri as significantly as you say, please do more to substantiate your claim I moved my vote around based on lynchability than just saying so, obviously focuses shift towards the people in the lime-light and I rode rofl's coat-tails the last while which is the "lynchable" target I suppose, but how does that correlation imply scum causation?

My cognitive machinery is currently failing to unpack this mass of words into

meaning

. What exactly did you say here?

[Xylthixlm]

Yeah, I don't think he investigated Elvis. But elvis was totally scummy.

Also, my general read on rofl is that he'll keep scumhunting aggressively even if he's a cop - makes it hard to tell what's a breadcrumb.

[Xylthixlm]

Here's what I think.

I think the second that the scum convince everyone that Rofl's Night 2 investigation was on Charter or RC is the second that they've eliminated the confirmation of a townie (fhq).

And that's why they're working so hard. Hiphop gets plenty of scum points and Xyl earns some, too.

By this logic, you get scum points for trying to eliminate the confirmation of a townie (RedCoyote).

You're welcome.

[Xylthixlm]

I feel like I should be doing something, but mostly I just want Zakeri to contribute or die.

[Xylthixlm]

I just found the huge flaw in the "roflcopter inspected elvis_knits and got guilty" theory:

roflcopter had a 50% chance of being sane, and a 50% chance of being insane, and

knew it

. Therefore he knew that his first night's inspection was worthless information-wise - it told him nothing about elvis_knit's alignment. Why would he try to get elvis lynched based on worthless info? He wouldn't.

Unless I'm missing something huge and roflcopter somehow sent in an inspection night 0 (which was before confirmations, so I really doubt it), it's pretty clear he only had two results, and they were on RedCoyote and charter.

[Xylthixlm]

Seems like wanting to see the alignment of the person he investigated as soon as possible is not an unreasonable thought, as it would tell him his sanity

rofl would

not

lynch elvis just for information. Someone else I might consider it, but not elvis.

'Roflcopter talked with more certainty than his game knowledge dictated' isn't working for me, as most of his scumlist posts were riddled with 'probably's and 'most likely's, while his declaration of RC, Charter, Fhq, and Elvis were all with an 'is'.

A little knowledge of rofl's playstyle would fix that pretty fast. Also note that you've listed four people, off a maximum of two investigations... grade school arithmetic would tell you that at least two of those must be "talking with more certainty than his game knowledge dictated".

[Xylthixlm]

No matter what alignment Zakeri flips, I will be happy with his lynch.

[Xylthixlm]

I don't mean to be cruel

Be cruel. Be downright gleeful. Shout "Yes! We lynched a lurker!". If this is the first time you've lynched Zakeri, add him to your lurker life-list.